I try to avoid being too dependent on a single news outlet on any particular day, but it is Sunday, and the New York Times happens to have a higher hit rate than usual on relevant pieces. Reader Independent Accountant chided me for not pointing to the artilce below by the reliable and thoughtful James […]
Read more...George Magnus, the UBS economist who popularized the concept of a Minsky Moment and has been prescient in his bearish calls on the credit markets, veered today and, in a Financial Times comment, “More is needed to unblock credit arteries,” gave unqualified support for aggressive monetary easing. Put it another way, when mere New York […]
Read more...Although Robert Reich is a smart fellow (and I mean that sincerely), like a lot of Beltway types, he isn’t as well versed in the ways of the world of finance as he is in the workings of public policy and opinion. Thus I found his recent post, “The Politics of an Economic Nightmare,” intriguing […]
Read more...Sentiment has gotten so bad even among CEOs that there is reason to expect a bounce in equities in the not-so-distant future once frayed nerves have calmed a bit, particularly given the report in Bloomberg that Bernanke & Co. are much more sanguine about inflation and therefore are perceived to be ready to make further […]
Read more...A very good article by David Leonhardt in today’s New York Times raises a question that would have been regarded with considerable skepticism as recently as, say, even August, when the perturbations in the debt markets seemed to be the largely the result of the subprime meltdown. That question is whether the Great Moderation, the […]
Read more...I have a great deal of respect for people who take the time to do real analysis, and Menzie Chinn is one of them. In his current post at Econbrowser, “Why One Percent of GDP? Opportunity Cost Illustrated (Part III),” Menzie looks into where that arbitrary-seeming figure came from. He first goes through the history […]
Read more...Normally I don’t go for intra-day fever charts, and the Nikkei was down considerably on Friday before rallying and winding up in positive territory. Nevertheless, the current state of play gives cause for pause: Update 3:00 AM. Yikes: That’s down nearly 4%. Back to the original post: The related Bloomberg story attributes the decline to […]
Read more...Mere mortal investors and their professional colleagues are (at least if they are honest and have a modicum of sense) a bit confounded as to what to do at this juncture. By all measures, inflationary pressures are gaining strength, and yet recessions lower aggregate demand and with it, price pressures. Ah, but what about the […]
Read more...Doing a bit of weekend catch-up, and this news item on Saudi reserves, or more accurately, lack thereof seemed to miss the attention it deserved with the market upheavals, Bernanke testimony before Congress, and stimulus plan announcements. A quick review: one of the arguments the peak oil types, Matthew Simmonds in particular, is that the […]
Read more...While the market iss spooked today by Merrill’s $16.7 billion writedown announdement (Dow down 189 as of this writing), which had been anticipated to a considerable degree in the media, grim news on other fronts certainly doesn’t help either. An aside: the story on Merrill says that the Wall Street writedowns related to subprime were […]
Read more...While there is some debate about whether and how much fiscal stimulus is warranted to combat a likely recession (yours truly thinks that we are in a no-win situation, with side effects likely to be as bad as the disease), some sort of program seems inevitable, particularly since this is an election year. So then […]
Read more...Today, Ben Stein, in his New York Times column, “Larry, Curly, Moe and the Economy,” uses the Three Stooges as metaphor for the Fed’s actions: the central bank, like the celluloid comics, keep hitting the wrong person on the head. According to Stein, the Fed is unduly preoccupied with inflation and it should instead engage […]
Read more...We are glad to be in such august company as Willem Buiter’s, professor at the London School of Economics who has also held a number of positions with various monetary authorities. Early this week, former Treasure Secretary Larry Summers, in the Financial Times, argued that the US needed a fiscal stimulus to ward off a […]
Read more...Forgive us, we are going to be a bit terse tonight. Turns out we got a wee case of food poisoning (likely culprit: shellfish). On the mend, but also behind schedule on various fronts. Bloomberg reports that China’s trade deficit has hit an all time high of $262.7 billion. So much for the idea that […]
Read more...There are three good and overlapping state of global finance pieces tonight; they all have worthy ideas and I’ll integrate them as best I can. The first is a post by Thomas Palley, “The Subprime – Trade Deficit Connection,” which is a companion piece to th Financial Times article by Stephen Roach yesterday. Roach depicted […]
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