The Wall Street Journal so often presents the optimistic case that it’s important to reinforce those occasions when it provides a less than cheery view. Of course, a journalist is only as good as his sources, and the bullish bias is in large measure due to the insistent upbeat posture of CEOs and sell-side analysts […]
Read more...The “end of the credit crisis” apostates looks to be a small and shrinking group (and we don’t mean just the downbeat but nevertheless accurate Nouriel Roubini or Michael Panzner). I’m amazed our number is as small as it is, given the overwhelming counterevidence in the form of the increase in the Term Auction Facility […]
Read more...Here we are, in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, and what do we see? Central banks madly pumping water out of leaky, listing vessels, some discussion of how to patch the most visible holes, but perilous little consideration of how to correct the defects of construction, poor choice of […]
Read more...Anytime you hear people on different ends of the political spectrum, such as Anna Schwartz (famed as co-author with Milton Friedman) and Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff agree on anything, it’s worth taking notice. In this case, it’s the Fed’s extreme efforts to save the markets, in particular the Bear bailout, that is attracting widespread criticism. One […]
Read more...When the Fed’s innovation, the Term Auction Facility, which is in effect an improved discount window, was implemented last December, its size was $40 billion, which was considered extraordinary, a sign of how desperation conditions in the money markets were. Now that several increased put the facility is $100 billion, the banking community and the […]
Read more...By happenstance, there is more than usual Fed-related news this early AM. A few weeks ago, Greg Ip of the Wall Street journal recited what some of the Fed’s options would be if it ran into balance sheet constraints. One was paying interest on bank reserves: The Fed could seek to pay interest on reserves. […]
Read more...Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal reports on the harsh criticism of the Fed’s role in the Bear deal by Vincent Reinhart, who rcently was the Fed’s most senior staff member. What is ironic about the Fed’s bailout is that it is unpopular on the left and the right. The left does not like […]
Read more...I believe in synchronicity, so I found it noteworthy that I came across two articles that gave great prominence to the issue of values, one Jeremy Grantham’s April newsletter, “Immoral Hazard,” the other a post by Willem Buiter on, of all things, the Olympics. Grantham’s excellent piece is unfortunately too long to present in full; […]
Read more...In a post at the Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reviews the case for why the credit markets might be on the mend and finds it wanting. While some of his arguments are familiar, the part I found interesting was his belief (contrary to Wolfgang Munchau at the Financial Times’ piece “Pessimism about the eurozone is misplaced”) […]
Read more...In a bit of synchronicity, two items, focusing on different aspects of our continuing credit woes, illustrate how the Fed is acting like the drunk looking under a streetlamp for his keys, because the light is good there, rather than where he lost them. The central bank’s version of this behavior is to continue to […]
Read more...We’ve said before that the US is in the same position as Thailand and Indonesia circa 1996, except we have the reserve currency and nukes. Some prominent commentators are making more polite observations along these lines. An article, “A rising euro threatens US dominance” in the Financial Times, by Benn Steil, director of international economics […]
Read more...OK, that isn’t what Wolfgang Munchau said in his Financial Times article today. His piece, “The princess’s cake gets an added crunch,” starts with the theory that inflation and our asset bubbles were ultimately monetary phenomena. While the rest of Munchau’s piece, which focuses on why we should be worried about inflation, is useful, I […]
Read more...Henry Kaufman, aka Dr. Doom in his heyday as Salomon’s chief economist when the firm was at the peak of its power, argues in “Finance’s upper tier needs closer scrutiny,” that the very biggest financial institutions need a regulator with the savvy and reach to supervise them effectively. Kaufman put the number at roughly the […]
Read more...I am frequently mystified at what goes on in the markets. I am even more mystified when people who ought to know better make pronouncements that appear to be profoundly counter-factual. Even if they are talking their own book, the high odds of being revealed as bald-faced liars proven wrong ought to make them worry […]
Read more...The Financial Times reports that that $45 trillion figure that most of us have been using for the size of the credit default swaps market is woefully dated. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association will announce today that outstanding contracts now total $62 trillion, up from $34.5 trillion a year ago. Institutional Risk Analytics gives […]
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