When it rains, it pours. Amazingly, the list of possible casualties from positions on forward freight agreements includes not only ship owners, traders, and charterers, but also hedge funds. From the Financial Times: Fears are growing in the shipping industry over the potentially big losses that could emerge this week on derivatives triggered by the […]
Read more...We have been writing for a few weeks that the credit crisis had engulfed letters of credit, a crucial instrument in international trade, particularly of commodities (ex oil) and other raw materials. With banks hesitating to extend credit to each other much beyond overnight (finally changing only by virtue of massive liquidity measures and recapitalizations), […]
Read more...Reader Michael appeared to be on a mission on Saturday and sent quite a few links on trade/shipping related matters. They were remarkably consistent in pointing to simply dreadful conditions and no expectation of near-term improvement. Indeed, further deterioration seems entirely possible. From Lloyd’s List: Freight rates in the Asia-Europe trades have crashed to record […]
Read more...We featured reports earlier this year on plant closings in China, and the suffering in manufacturing areas is becoming more acute as the global downturn cuts into Chinese exports. Reader Michael sent us this report on China’s toymakers, but it also stresses that China may be more vulnerable to a global financial shock than advanced […]
Read more...As Senator Everett Dirksen famously said, “A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you are talking real money.” Today, the Fed provided Brazil, South Korea, Mexico, and Singapore with dollar swap lines of $30 billion each (hat tip readers Robertm, Dwight). From the Fed’s press release: Today, the Federal Reserve, the Banco Central […]
Read more...Over the last few weeks, and accelerating late last week and early this week, it looked as if a full bore run on emerging markets was in progress. Now with the yen taking its biggest dive in two decades and carry trade unwinds a temporary thing of the past, emerging market and currencies are staging […]
Read more...In a bit of synchronicity, it seems that some mainstream commentators are starting to to take interest in a topic we’ve commented on in recent weeks, namely, how the difficulty in getting letters of credit is playing a significant role in the contraction in international trade (see our related post earlier today). John Dizard in […]
Read more...One of our pet themes in recent weeks is that the fall in trade traffic, indicated and possibly overstated by a dramatic fall in the Baltic Dry Index, is due at least in part to difficulties in arranging and getting other banks to accept buyers’ letters of credit. For those new to this topic, international […]
Read more...We discussed that EU financial institutions may be at risk if capital flight from emerging economies continues. Europe will also suffer along with developing markets for another reason: they also have strong trade links. From Bloomberg: The European economy’s close ties to emerging markets are turning from a blessing to a curse. Already skirting recession, […]
Read more...Talk about getting creative to avoid use of the dollar (the iranians are particularly keen to avoid use of the dollar in oil trading, it verges on a point of honor with them. They have been selling oil to the Japanese with trades denominated in yen rather than the dollar as the reference currency for […]
Read more...Hyperbole has become a mainstay of discourse in the US. The upcoming financial summit set for November 15 in Washington DC is being wrapped in the Bretton Woods brand, when it appears to be a different sort of beast. As a Wall Street Journal story reminds us, Bretton Woods was a three week session among […]
Read more...The Nikkei was down as low as 600 below the previous day’s close. It is now down a bit over 400 points. Other reports from the region via Bloomberg: Asian stocks fell for a third day after Sony Corp. slashed its earnings forecast and South Korea’s economic growth weakened, deepening concern a global slowdown is […]
Read more...Despite some calls that a commodities bottom is nigh (see Marc Faber, hat tip reader Megan), the Baltic Dry Index, a proxy for international shipping and international manufacturing, continues an alarming fall. While the BDI is known for false positives about trends in economic activity, the dramatic decline in BDi is partly the result of […]
Read more...Even though the dollar seems destined for a considerable fall (depreciating the currency is part of the “reflate” remedy that Bernanke is putting into action), it is all too easy to forget John Maynard Kenyes’ dictum, “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” But in this case, the lesson may be […]
Read more...A colorful and informative article by John Dizard in the Financial Times on how emerging markets may not have dodged foreign currency exposure risk despite their central banks having very large foreign exchange reserves. It turns out their banks and major companies weren’t so prudent. Dizard raises a second issue here, one that was discussed […]
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