Paul Krugman has a good op-ed tonight on how Germany has fared versus the US in the global financial crisis. Recall that there was much hectoring of Germany early on, for its failure to enact stimulus programs. German readers were puzzled, since Germany has a lot of social safety nets that serve as automatic counter-cyclical […]
Read more...By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. When a liberal labor leader and a conservative financial policy analyst unite against something, you know that something is really bad (actually, I don’t believe in the whole false left-right dichotomy; I think its Americans versus those trying to steal our wallets and our rights, but that’s another story). […]
Read more...By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. I have repeatedly pointed out that big banks are not more efficient than smaller banks. For example, I previously noted that an article in Fortune concluded: The largest banks often don’t show the greatest efficiency. This now seems unsurprising given the deep problems that the biggest institutions have faced […]
Read more...By Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns I just came across a post on Zero Hedge called “An Overview Of The Fed’s Intervention In Equity Markets Via The Primary Dealer Credit Facility.” Now, that’s a mouthful. As far as I can discern, the post’s purpose is to expose alleged equities market manipulation by the Federal Reserve. […]
Read more...A lot of investors I know lamented the loss of Gillian Tett. As the Financial Times’ capital markets editor in the runup to the crisis, she had provided very insightful commentary on some of the more arcane goings-on in the financial markets. I’ve had reason to look at her older commentary (circa 2004-2005) and some […]
Read more...The New York Times has a good update on the progress, or more accurately, lack thereof, in the efforts to return to normalcy in the credit markets. The story highlights the fact that the securitization markets, to the extent they are operating, are heavily dependent on government intervention and it does not appear likely that […]
Read more...I read my first management book at the age of 11, not because it was a management book, but a best seller at the time, And it may have been imprinted by it more than I realized. The Peter Principle says that managers are promoted until they reach their level of incompetence. The classic example […]
Read more...Nicholas Nassim Taleb and Mark Spitznagel have a provocative comment up at the Financial Time today, In some ways, it is isn’t surprising for those familiar with his work on risk and uncertainty. On the other hand, it is an eye opener to see what an internally consistent, reasonably comprehensive solution to our mess looks […]
Read more...What is going on? We noted on June 12 that the World Bank has lowered its growth forecast for 2009 from a negative 1.7% to close to negative 3%. World Bank Group President announced this prior to the G8 meeting and stressed the global contraction would have particularly grim consequences for poor countries. Today we […]
Read more...Yesterday, we highlighted yet another indication that one of two parts of the infamous Public Private Investment Partnership, the so called Legacy Loans Program, was being delayed, possibly on a permanent basis (or more likely, it will be launched eventually to save bureaucratic face and have weak to non-existent take-up). Its evil twin, the program […]
Read more...Submitted by Rolfe Winkler, publisher of OptionARMageddon In an interview with Charlie Rose on Tuesday, Tim Geithner admitted the bubble was caused by Greenspan’s easy money policy. Unfortunately, Charlie didn’t ask the obvious follow-up: “why will this time be different? Why will Bernanke’s easy money policy lead to different results?” Here was the crucial exchange: […]
Read more...Full disclosure: I am normally a fan of the Financial Times’ Gillian Tett, but her latest piece reveals she has been co-opted by the industry she covers. While there are matters of substance I take issue with (we’ll get to those soon), the whopper is the positioning. How can Tett possibly depict Gordon Gekko as […]
Read more...I am puzzled by some recent market anomalies, which are breakdowns of established patterns: 1. Long dated Treasuries rising (a deflation signal) as stocks stage a dramatic rally 2. Dollar weakening while long dated Treasuries rise (the dollar and bonds usually go together) 3. Oil stocks rallying more than the S&P (28% versus 18%) when […]
Read more...Reader Dwight sent along this tidbit from OptionMONSTER ($) and I must confess it piqued my interest. As you will see, the trade described in this story makes sense only if you believe the acquisition of Merrill by Bank of America will not close, or will appear to be in serious doubt. That seems like […]
Read more...Economist Paul De Grauwe, who has been an astute and harsh critic of central bank’s models and priorities, makes a very simple point and draw a conclusion. Banks are not lending to each other out of mistrust. Various measures to increase liquidity and backstop banks have not made them look any more favorably upon their […]
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