Wolfgang Munchau has a good piece in todays’ Financial Times delineating his economic policy wish list for 2009. It has the merit of being to the point and pragmatic. His preamble contains some some striking tidbits. Munchau considers himself relatively optimistic about US housing, despite anticipating a 40 to 50% peak to trough decline, and […]
Read more...One of the ugly features of the Great Depression that in many (but not all) cases worsened the severity of the contraction was that countries adopted “me first” policies with little regard to their broader ramifications. The poster child of this pattern is Smoot Hawley. Although there is some dispute among economists as to whether […]
Read more...Well, what we all suspected has now been made official. From the New York Times: Mr. Paulson and other senior advisers to Mr. Bush say the administration has responded well to the turmoil, demonstrating flexibility under difficult circumstances. “There is not any playbook,” Mr. Paulson said. Why am I not surprised to see that what […]
Read more...The end of days must be closer than I realized. Conservative stalwart Fox News is not only taking on the officialdom, it is going after Republican authorities. This is almost as much fun as learning that J. Edgar Hoover was a cross-dresser. But then again, Fox is going after the AIG rescue and the TARP, […]
Read more...Earlier today, George Bush made a surprisingly candid set of remarks, signaling a desire to avoid a disorderly collapse for the large US car manufacturers, and ambivalence about Chapter 11. The stock market started downward, and the trajectory accelerated with Standard & Poors putting GE’s ratings outlook at “negative,” meaning it is at risk of […]
Read more...Over a weekend, word leaked out that AIG is paying yet more retention bonuses. This move is making a complete and utter sham of the supposed punitive elements of the rescue. But clearly, there was not enough of an adverse reaction to the earlier announcements of retention bonuses to deter the giant insurer. A few […]
Read more...We had doubted the earlier Bloomberg report claiming a deal had been cinched, since an hour later, there was no corroborating report. So now a rescue falls to Paulson. From the Washington Post: An eleventh-hour effort to salvage a proposed $14 billion rescue plan for the auto industry collapsed tonight as Republicans and Democrats failed […]
Read more...Contrary to usual form, I’m putting the latest update first, but Bloomberg claims that the Senate Republicans and Democrats have reached a compromise on the auto bailout bill. However, the Detroit Free Press, in a story posted at almost the same time, say the Democrats say there is a deal, while the Republicans beg to […]
Read more...The Wall Street Journal story on GM engaging a team of bankruptcy advisors stresses that this move is in part political, to underscore that the top US automaker really is at the end of its rope. Most observers assume that if Congress failed to authorize a rescue bill, that the Treasury would uses it TARP […]
Read more...We appear to be at an impasse, Senate Republicans are unhappy with the provisions of the auto industry rescue bill that passed the House last night. While they are signalling that they would back legislation with a stronger role for the “car czar” and some also want a bondholder and UAW pension cram-down, the House […]
Read more...After months of negotiations, Congress appears close to a deal on the bailout of the Big Three. While the final bill has not yet been formally introduced and made available for public inspection, major elements are emerging. Roll Call (subscription required), the New York Times, and Bloomberg are reporting the following details: 1. Size of […]
Read more...One of the most pervasive findings in social science, although it is seldom codified this way, is how suggestible people are. Numerous studies in behavioral economics have found that the same underlying bet elicits very different take-up rates when framed as a wager versus as insurance. Even worse, humans are susceptible to obviously exogenous influence. […]
Read more...In the geeky but important category, the California legislature attempted but failed to pass a budget that included a provision that effectively repudiated the recent Treasury directive to eliminate the limitation on acquiring banks’ ability to use the net operating losses of acquired banks. That rule change was widely described as instrumental in the catfight […]
Read more...Folks, am just back from a quick turnaround trip to Vienna, which was educational and enjoyable (although I did not have the time to see a Van Gogh exhibition at the Albertina which reportedly has a large number of rarely-exhibited top quality works). Am on the verge of doing a face plant, so forgive me […]
Read more...You have to hand it to Paulson. The man is brazen. Now, admittedly, he has not asked Congress for the second half of the $700 bailout funds; the Wall Street Journal says merely that he is considering making a request. Now let us consider; 1. Paulson got the bill passed (remember the timing: it was […]
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