Category Archives: Russia

Another Food Supply Worry: Peak Phosphorus?

Some optimists on the agriculture front, such as Nobel prize winning economist Gary Becker, have argued that increasing the productivity of farming would solve the problem of skyrocketing grain and food commodity prices. Only roughly 30% of crop-raising is done according to advanced techniques; if much of the rest of the land under cultivation was […]

Did the Iraq War Cause High Oil Prices?

An oil economics specialist, Mamdouh Salameh, who advises the World Bank and the UN Industrial Development Organisation, contends that oil prices would be at less than 1/3 of their current level had the US not invaded iraq. We’ve noted before that Iraqi reserves somehow gets overlooked, which is odd. Iraq’s production has fallen further than […]

Russia’s President Deems Environmental Problems a Security Threat

PhysOrg reports that Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said that pollution could make certain parts of the country uninhabitable, possibly as soon as a decade from now. As much as China’s horrific pollution gets occasional attention in the West, Russia’s environmental woes win less scrutiny. Yet a seven-year study published in 2006 found that three of […]

Mohamed El-Erian’s Odd Piece on Global Imbalances

Full disclosure: I’m normally a fan of Mohamed El-Erian, former head of Harvard Management, now co-president of bond giant Pimco. But his current comment in the Financial Times, “How best to manage global imbalances,” struck me as more than a tad disingenuous. Let’s go through the article: Whatever happened to the debate on global payments […]

Oil Runup Exceeds Dot-Com Bubble

Faithful readers, I hope you don’t mind if I am less chatty than usual today, since I had some competing obligations, plus some of the material on offer stands on its own. In the “pets.com redux” category, a reader pointed out this Wall Street Journal story: Excitement over oil is surging in Brazil…. After creating […]

Traders Versus Roubini on Inflation, Dollar

The Financial Times’ John Authers, who called a market turn in bonds in early June of last year, sees another major shift in sentiment on the outlook for inflation and the dollar: For months, through all the volatility of the credit crisis, one bet has been enough to make profits. It is very simple: bet […]

Japan: Fundamentals Warrant Oil Only at $60 a Barrel

Forgive me if you’ve heard this one before, but a classic Wall Street joke illustrates an important concept. On a slow day in the markets, trader A decided to open bidding on a can of sardines. He offered it at $1. It was snapped up by B at $2, who sold it to C at […]

Has the Fed Painted Itself in a Corner?

Without a doubt, the Federal Reserve now faces the most difficult financial and economic climate in our collective memory. And it is increasingly apparent that its options are constrained. Although it is premature to arrive at definitive judgments, it’s nevertheless worth asking whether some of these limitations were unwittingly self-created. Friday’s market rout, triggered by […]

International Energy Agency Calls for Much Higher Carbon Prices

The International Energy Agency has determined that for greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to the level recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (and some contend that report was too conservative), carbon prices would need to be $200 a ton, more than four time the price now in effect for the EU carbon […]

Negative Real Interest Rates ‘Round the World Bode Ill for Inflation

While some writers in the US have taken note of the fact that the Fed’s rate cuts have propelled the US into negative real interest rate territory, until recently, the role of overly-permissive monetary policy in inflation-fraught countries like China and the Gulf States has gotten comparatively little attention. Last week, the Economist devoted an […]

High Euro Leading to Fall in Long-Term Investment

Policymakers in Europe have been worried about the appreciation of the euro, which makes local goods less competitive in international markets. Another cost of the currency’s strength is that foreign direct investment has plummeted, as producers shift funds to nations that now have a cost advantage. From the Telegraph: Long-term private investors are pulling their […]

From Imperialists to Third World?

A good comment by Philip Stephens in the Financial Times, “Uncomfortable truths for a new world of them and us,” is a polite and understated wake-up call to the fading former imperialist of the West. He notes that the countries currently dominant in major international organizations assume that life will continue more or less as […]

Hamilton: "Understanding Crude Oil Prices"

Here I wanted a light weekend and what does Jim Hamilton do but go and put up a link to a very interesting new paper of his. This is from the introduction: How would one go about explaining what oil prices have been doing and predicting where they might be headed next? This paper explores […]

International Energy Agency to Try to Gather Supply Data It Won’t Get (And Other Oil Information Gaps)

The headline above is perhaps the most important message contained in the front page Wall Street Journal article, “Energy Watchdog Warns Of Oil-Production Crunch.” Well, in fairness, it may rank as important as the thrust of the article, which is that the IEA, which recently had predicted that oil supplies would be able to more […]