Um, a bit late to come to that realization, don’tcha think? From Barron’s (hat tip reader Michael):
That ‘’super spike” in oil prices that Goldman insisted would lift crude to $200 a barrel ….? ….It never really turned out to be that prescient: instead of the 50% jump in oil that Goldman anticipated back in May, when it made the call with crude trading at $132, the price of a barrel never got more than 11% higher. And has since, of course, lost fully two-thirds of that price in the intervening four months.Now Goldman is left with the ignominy of summarily abandoning the investors who listen to its research calls… On Thursday, Goldman said it was ”closing” its recommendations for oil trades. Meaning that in a perilous time when the traders who pay attention to Goldman’s recommendations could use some guidance the most, Goldman has opted to give them the least. And some traders are furious about it, comparing the maneuver to then-strategist Abby Cohen’s decision to abandon her targets for equity indexes in the fall 2001, citing the uncertainties abounding in the market.
Goldman specifically talked about four trade recommendations it previously issued, and said clients shouldn’t put any stock in them any longer. One particular trade, a Nymex-WTI swap on the 2012 contract, issued in September, when crude already had declined to below $70, suggested that the contract would reflate to a range of $120 to $140. Obviously, that hasn’t happened.
The big losers, of course, would be anybody who continued to trade on Goldman’s recommendations. And the stocks of companies linked to those underlying commodities. Exploration and production names have had an awful go of it Thursday….But Goldman …? What did Goldman lose today? It’s worth noting that, for reasons unrelated to its oil trading call, Goldman shares dropped below their 1999 IPO price in Thursday’s trading.
Anonymous 
Posts
I definitely thought there was a little froth when oil went over $120 a barrel and kept climbing, but I never thought it would go back down to $50 a barrel. So let me issue a mea culpa. I never claimed to know what was driving the price of oil, but I did think there was some sort of long term supply-and-demand trend that had set oil over $90 a barrel forever. Of course, I never foresaw the unwind of the carry trade, which has also affected oil because of its relatively inverse relation to the dollar. Oh well. At least I didn’t gamble based on Goldman’s call. The sting is a little less when you only lose face and not money.