All eyes in finance are on Greece, as the poll-meisters are now predicting an inconclusive result to Sunday’s election, with New Democracy tipped to achieve a plurality but not a majority. This may still allow Syriza to act as a spoiler, and remember, it’s still within the realm of possibility that Syriza will score a win. The liveblog at ekathimerini has not been updated since Friday evening, but it will presumably have frequent reports on Sunday. The leading (and right wing) German paper FAZ reports that the ECB was fighting over whether to turn off the money supply to Greece. One has to assume the intent is to tell the Greeks that the rest of Europe is unwilling to negotiate with them (New Democracy has signaled that it won’t push hard; Syriza is taking a bolder stance, but since it has said it thinks leaving the euro would be really bad for Greece, its ability to negotiate effectively depends on being able to project the sort of vengeful unpredictability that Kissinger cultivated on behalf of Nixon [note that Kissinger merely had to tart up reality a bit…]).
Since many NC regulars read the European press, I’ll throw it out to you: what do you deem the odds of Euro breakup to be (with “breakup” defined as at least one country exiting the Eurozone) in the next month? In the next six months? And if you think it will come apart, but later, guesstimate how much later and why you think it will occur later rather than sooner.