2:00PM Water Cooler 4/26/2024

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

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Bird Song of the Day

American Woodcock, E. Gwillimbury Twp.; Brown Hill, Ontario, Canada. “A recording of the flight sounds. No. flights: 1 flight (0:00-0.58) – ground calls – flight 2 (3:31-4:29) flight 3 (4:37-5:32).” 17’38” of peents (title worthy of John Cage). 1962!

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In Case You Might Miss…

(1) Seattle Clean Air Collective

(2) Presidential immunity argued at the Supreme Court.

(3) Susie Wiles, feared political operative and Trump’s right hand person.

(4) AI infesting Etsy crochet pattern marketplace.

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Look for the Helpers

“The Seattle Clean Air Collective Is Making the City’s Shows and Spaces COVID-Safer” [The Stranger]. “Seattle Clean Air Collective, a mutual aid organization that lends air purification gear like air filters and specialized, pathogen-destroying ultraviolet lights to artists and musicians for no charge. The group is part of a growing movement composed of people across the country who feel government agencies and corporations have abandoned their safety and ignored an evolving understanding of the virus for profit and a false promise of normalcy. In the absence of official action, people like White feel safety has become a community responsibility… The number of Americans still taking COVID-19 precautions, such as indoor masking, is dwindling as local and national public health agencies continue to relax health guidelines… The Seattle Clean Air Collective is not the first organization of its kind. A Chicago-based group called Clean Air Club is credited with the idea of a clean air lending library when it began distributing air filters last year. In September, Clean Air Club posted its guide on Instagram instructing people how to start their own clubs. People commented the names of their cities below, seeking others interested in organizing, including Seattle Clean Air Collective co-founder Taylor Klekamp. Organizers in at least 29 cities—Los Angeles, Minneapolis, Charlottesville, Melbourne, Australia, and Vancouver, British Columbia—have also replicated the Clean Air Club model.” Impressive! More: “Seattle’s collective has a small collection of three purifiers and three far-UVC lamps circulating in Seattle. The equipment is so in demand that most of the time organizers are coordinating direct hand-offs between borrowers.” • Encouraging!

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My email address is down by the plant; please send examples of “Helpers” there. In our increasingly desperate and fragile neoliberal society, everyday normal incidents and stories of “the communism of everyday life” are what I am looking for (and not, say, the Red Cross in Hawaii, or even the UNWRA in Gaza).

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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The Constitutional Order (Insurrection)

Trump v. United States, the Presidential immunity case in which oral arguments were heard yesterday. There’s a lot of sound and fury about this, a lot of aghastitude, a lot of Trumpian grandiosity, and I don’t say the issues are easy, but they are not complicated. First the pragmatics–

“US Supreme Court signals delay in ruling on Trump’s claim of absolute immunity” [France24]. “The active questioning of all nine justices left the strong impression that the court was not headed for the sort of speedy, consensus decision that would allow a trial to begin quickly.” • Nothing wrong with kicking the can down the road, eh?

“The Last Thing This Supreme Court Could Do to Shock Us” [Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Joseph Stern, Slate]. Despite the aghastitude, Slate presents the two poles of the argument: (1) “[Justice Sonia Sotomayor] responded in what could only be heard as a cri de coeur: ‘Stable democratic society needs good faith of public officials,’ she said. ‘That good faith assumes that they will follow the law.’ The justice noted that despite all the protections in place, a democracy can sometimes ‘potentially fail.’ She concluded: ‘In the end, if it fails completely, it’s because we destroyed our democracy on our own, isn’t it?’ and (2): “[B]y that point we had heard both Alito and Gorsuch opine that presidents must be protected at all costs from the whims of overzealous deep state prosecutors brandishing ‘vague’ criminal statutes.” • Sotomayer seems blissfully ignorant of the realities of lawfare, not possible to practice in good faith; Alito and Gorsuch seem OK with, say, Obama whacking US citizens, plural, with drone strikes (the precedent could come in handy this summer!) It seems to me that Trump has, as usual, managed to find his way to a horrid edge case; what the Supreme Court is trying to do is, in essence, a lot like the Third World problem of trying to write a Constitution to prevent the military from staging a coup (or from writing a new Constitution and granting themselves retroactive immunity). In such a case, and perhaps for us, “auxiliary precautions” have failed, and “a dependence on the people” is the only “primary control” remaining.

Biden Administration

2024

Less than a year to go!

★RCP Poll Averages, April 26:

National results are still moving Biden’s way. But all the Swing States (more here) are moving Trump’s way, although in tiny increments. It’s hard to attribute this consistency to mere chance. “All” with one exception: Pennsylvania. If Susie Wiles is such a brain genius, why isn’t she fixing this?

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Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Trump could avoid trial this year on 2020 election charges. Is the hush money case a worthy proxy?” [Orlando Sentinel]. “Richard Painter, a University of Minnesota Law School professor and former associate White House counsel during the George W. Bush administration, said he believed the facts of the case met the evidence needed to determine whether a felony had been committed that violated campaign law, but added, ‘The election interference part, I have a little bit of trouble on this.’ Richard Hasen, a UCLA law school professor, said the New York case does not compare to the other election-related charges Trump faces. ‘We can draw a fairly bright line between attempting to change vote totals to flip a presidential election and failing to disclose embarrassing information on a government form,’ he wrote in a recent Los Angeles Times column. In an email, Hasen said New York prosecutors were calling the case election interference ‘because that boosts what may be the only case heard before the election.’ Some said prosecutors’ decision to characterize the New York case as election interference seemed to be a strategy designed to raise its visibility.”

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Trump (R): “The Most Feared and Least Known Political Operative in America” [Politico]. Susie Wiles (whose father was, amazingly, football great and and alcoholic Pat Summerall). “Wiles is not just one of Trump’s senior advisers. She’s his most important adviser. She’s his de facto campaign manager. She has been in essence his chief of staff for the last more than three years. She’s one of the reasons Trump is the GOP’s presumptive nominee and Ron DeSantis is not.” I remember when the press flipped into pull-the-wings-off-flies mode on DeSantis: An attack on his wife’s fashion sense. Then, IIRC, came the lifts in his shoes. Turns out Wiles planted those stories. More: “Trump of course is not an alcoholic — he in fact does not drink at all — but Trump is every bit an addict, of chaos and conflict, of attention and affirmation. And Wiles sees in Trump, as she saw in her father, a ranging, voracious intelligence, a quenchless capacity for activity, and a drive that borders on almost manic ambition. They were stars, too, both of them, of a different sort, yes, but in the same place and at the same time — not just in and around New York but even more specifically the New York of the 1970s and ’80s, which for Trump remains his most formative stretch and stage. It’s a piece of the past that they share. It’s something to Trump that matters a lot. It’s part of what makes him say Wiles has ‘good genes.’ They would on paper seem dissimilar,’ she told me. ‘But they’re just not that dissimilar.'” • This a long but well-written beat sweetener. However, I highly recommend it to our Anglosphere readers, who may not understand that America’s sheer scale makes its politics different from much smaller countries (capital structure too, I would imagine). The article also makes clear that electoral politics is a highly skilled trade. It’s not easy at all (“the greatest of all reflections on human nature”).

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Biden (D): “Scoop: Biden changes walking routine to Marine One” [Axios]. “President Biden has introduced a change to his White House departure and return routine. Instead of walking across the South Lawn to and from Marine One by himself, he’s now often surrounded by aides. With aides walking between Biden and journalists’ camera position outside the White House, the visual effect is to draw less attention to the 81-year-old’s halting and stiff gait. Some Biden advisers have told Axios they’re concerned that videos of Biden walking and shuffling alone — especially across the grass — have highlighted his age. Weeks ago the president told aides that he’d prefer a less formal approach, a White House official told Axios. He suggested that they walk with him. White House staffers and reporters alike noticed the sudden change in Biden’s walk routine beginning in mid-April, after more than three years in which he’d typically walked solo. Senior aides such as deputy chiefs of staff Bruce Reed and Annie Tomasini and close adviser Mike Donilon are among those who’ve walked with the president across the lawn to and from the helicopter.Since the change, some advisers think the images of Biden’s walks to and from the helicopter are better, and they expect him to continue to have aides join him.” • Most scrutinized man on earth….

Biden (D): “Inside the failed White House coup to oust Biden press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre” [New York Post]. ” Top aides to President Biden secretly hatched a plan this past fall to replace White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre by recruiting outside allies to nudge her out the door, The Post has learned. Jean-Pierre, who made history in May 2022 by becoming the first black and first openly gay person to hold the position, had developed the exasperating habit of reading canned answers directly from a binder to reporters at her regular briefings — offering what her superiors viewed as a less-than-compelling pitch for the 81-year-old Biden as he readied his re-election campaign. De facto White House communications chief Anita Dunn, 66, the wife of Biden personal attorney Bob Bauer, told colleagues she had decided to call in prominent Democrats to explain to Jean-Pierre, 49, that the time was ripe to move on, sources told The Post…. ‘Karine doesn’t have an understanding of the issues and she reads the book [binder] word-for-word,’ said the second source, adding that the situation is made worse by the fact that ‘she thinks she’s doing an amazing job.’ ‘She doesn’t have a grasp of the issues and doesn’t spend the time to learn,’ this person said. ‘These issues are not second nature to people. Israel and Gaza is a perfect example. It’s very nuanced. Jen would have calls with people to feel well-versed enough to go to the briefing.’ ‘There’s an enormous amount of work that goes into getting ready,’ the first source said, ‘and consistently she does not put in that level of work.'” • Jean-Pierre refusing to be muscled by Anita Dunn?! That’s quite something!

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“With DNC nomination set for after Ohio deadline, legislators negotiate to ensure Biden is on ballot” [FOX]. “OP Ohio Senate President Matt Huffman told reporters Wednesday that productive discussions are under way between both legislative chambers and both political parties about how to fix the fact that the Democratic National Convention, where Biden is to be formally nominated, falls after Ohio’s ballot deadline of Aug. 7. The convention will be held Aug. 19-22 in Chicago. ‘Certainly, it’s something that’s going to happen. We need to take care of it,’ Huffman said, seeming to adjust his earlier stance that it was ‘a Democratic problem’ that was up to the General Assembly’s minority party to work out. He said the answer may be added to an existing bill or it could be contained in a stand-alone measure…. As Ohio nears the May 9 cutoff set by Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, legislation meant to ensure Biden will appear on fall ballots in Alabama cleared the state’s Senate Tuesday. The Alabama bill offers accommodations to the president like those made four years ago for then-President Donald Trump.” • Good. At least partisanship hasn’t gone completely round the twist.

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Democrats en Déshabillé

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Bad Leadership Is a National-Security Threat” [Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal]. “I often read the memoirs of contemporary British politicians. Once I read weighty biographies by serious historians of the greats—Gladstone, Disraeli, Churchill, Harold Macmillan—but current leaders don’t seem great, and don’t last. They often write memoirs, however, and I read them to horrify myself… Why is this worth mentioning, since everyone seems to have noticed a deterioration in their quality? Because our foes know. The character of our leaders seems to me a national-security issue. My concern is that history will see it this way: At the exact moment America’s foes decided to become more public in their antipathy and deadlier in their calculations—”back to blood,” as Tom Wolfe said, in terms of the nature of peoples’ future loyalties—at that same moment our leaders in the West were becoming more frivolous and unfocused, more superficial, than ever in modern times. I suspect our foes notice this. It is perhaps part of why they have become more aggressive. Harry S. Truman and Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Jimmy Carter, whatever else they were, no one ever thought they were buyable or shallow in their advancement of America’s meaning and interests. Their successors seem to lack a comparable internal stature…. The unseriousness of our leaders isn’t a small and amusing tabloid story but a reality that ought to startle us. Leaders of other nations extrapolate from our leaders, whom they know. They think that as they are, we are. It contributes to the power of the argument, in their councils of state, that the West has lost its way…. One particularly good man here, one exceptionally good woman there, could begin to turn it around, or might at the very least startle foreign leaders and make them reappraise. That would be a good long-term project for us as citizens: Get a better class of humans to go into the business of leading us.” • Third World thinking: “Get a better class of humans.” That’s not how our system was designed! “If men were angels, no government would be necessary. If angels were to govern men, neither external nor internal controls on government would be necessary. In framing a government which is to be administered by men over men, the great difficulty lies in this: you must first enable the government to control the governed; and in the next place oblige it to control itself. A dependence on the people is, no doubt, the primary control on the government; but experience has taught mankind the necessity of auxiliary precautions. This policy of supplying, by opposite and rival interests, the defect of better motives, might be traced through the whole system of human affairs, private as well as public.” –Federalist 51. That is the system that has been carefully demolished and replaced with blobs and vibes.

Pandemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

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Maskstravaganza

“Behind the mask: Why the new US campus protestors cover their faces” [Semafor]. “The first thing you see are the masks — the N-95s, the surgical masks, the patterned cloth masks, the bandanas — which largely vanished from American life over the last two years but are a defining feature of America’s swelling left-wing protest culture. Faculty members at New York University link arms to protect a “Gaza solidarity encampment,” most of them wearing face masks. Activists block travel across the Golden Gate Bridge, all of them in masks. Members of the March on DNC 2024 coalition show up to their Chicago press conference in face masks, removing them only when it’s their turn to speak. Nearly one year after the official end of the federal COVID-19 emergency declaration, the regular use of face masks for non-immunocompromised people has faded from American life. Outdoor masking, mandated in many states during the peak of the pandemic, became even rarer after a 2022 CDC advisory scaled it back. But that gradual return to barefaced life never reached left-leaning protests, where face masks are widely used and encouraged. Part of the reason, say organizers, remains an attempt to make a point about exposure to COVID-19 and other health risks, which some in the left-wing protest movements believe remain dire. And part is the threat of a different kind of exposure — from being captured by facial recognition technology or becoming doxxed (their personal information being shared online) by counter-protesters. ‘To us, the optics are communicating that we deny the Biden administration’s narrative about COVID — that it’s no longer a big deal,” said Olan Mijana, a spokesman for the March on DNC 2024 coalition. “It’s about collective safety, and it’s also about connecting this COVID neglect to the very issues that we’re marching on the DNC for.'” • I don’t think this article is correct; I have seen consistent complaints from the immunocompromised that left-leaning spaces don’t enforce universal masking at all; and not just the brunch types, either. In any case, masking immunocompromized people are now doubly othered, thanks to the left’s fecklessness back at the start of the pandemic.

Elite Maleficence

Twitter community-corrects the droplet goons at WHO:

Shockingly, @Twitter has done what @WHO has REFUSED to do for 2.5 years.

Tell us that the "FACT: COVID-19 is NOT AIRBORNE" message from !WHO "was not proven at the time, and is NOW CONFIRMED FALSE"

Will @WHO please confirm they agree and apologize?@mvankerkhove? @DrTedros? pic.twitter.com/wcRvMW8wsV

— Prof. Jose-Luis Jimenez (@jljcolorado) October 6, 2022

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TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Cases
National[1] Biobot April 22:	Regional[2] Biobot April 22:
Variants[3] CDC April 13	Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC March 23
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, data April 25:	National [6] CDC April 13:
Positivity
National[7] Walgreens April 22:	Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic April 13:
Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC April 1:	Variants[10] CDC April 1:
Deaths[11]
Weekly deaths New York Times March 16:	Percent of deaths due to Covid-19 New York Times March 16:

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (Biobot) Our curve has now flattened out at a level far above valleys under Trump. Not a great victory. Note also the area “under the curve,” besides looking at peaks. That area is larger under Biden than under Trump, and it seems to be rising steadily if unevenly.

[2] (Biobot) No backward revisons….

[3] (CDC Variants) As of May 11, genomic surveillance data will be reported biweekly, based on the availability of positive test specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring every two weeks. 2. occurring twice a week; semiweekly.” Looks like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to worry about. Time will tell.

[4] (ER) CDC seems to have killed this off, since the link is broken, I think in favor of this thing. I will try to confirm. UPDATE Yes, leave it to CDC to kill a page, and then announce it was archived a day later. And heaven forfend CDC should explain where to go to get equivalent data, if any. I liked the ER data, because it seemed really hard to game.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Flattening out to a non-zero baseline. I suppose to a tame epidemiologist it looks like “endemicity,” but to me it looks like another tranche of lethality.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Still down. “Maps, charts, and data provided by CDC, updates weekly for the previous MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Department Visits, Test Positivity) and weekly the following Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Slight uptrend.

[9] (Travelers: Posivitity) Uptick.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) JN.1 dominates utterly.

[11] Looks like the Times isn’t reporting death data any more? Maybe I need to go back to The Economist….

Stats Watch

Inflation: “United States Core PCE Price Index Annual Change” [Trading Economics]. “The US core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge to measure inflation, rose by 2.8% from the previous year in March 2024, the least since March 2021, as in February. Figures came above market forecasts of 2.6%.”

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The Economy:

People are making $70-80K per year selling restaurant reservations in NYC on the secondary market 😯 pic.twitter.com/xOGfoeEsLY

— Tanay Jaipuria (@tanayj) April 23, 2024

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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 43 Fear (previous close: 40 Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 32 (Neutral). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Apr 26 at 1:54:00 PM ET.

Class Warfare

“Can Biden Revive the Fortunes of American Workers?” [Paul Krugman, New York Times]. • What an absurdly wrong-headed question. The real question: “Can American workers revive the fortunes of American workers?”

“‘The working class can’t afford it’: the shocking truth about the money bands make on tour” [Guardian]. “For this article, the Guardian has seen 12 tour budget sheets for various bands and artists varying from up-and-comers to firmly established and successful acts, all of whom regularly undertake headline tours across the UK in venues ranging from 150 to 2,500 capacity. Almost all of these result in losses. Understandably, most shared their balance sheets on the condition of anonymity. One four-piece indie band, whose last two albums went Top 10 in the UK charts, reported a loss of £2,885 from a six-day UK tour. The only tour that shows anything resembling healthy profit was a 29-date tour for a solo artist who came away with £6,550. Not bad going for a month’s work but, as Martin points out, ‘that’s then his touring done for the next six months. So it’s not enough money…. The question is: who else will be able to afford to pursue music as a hobby? ‘It depresses me how many middle and upper class people there are in the music industry,’ says manager Potts. ‘Because the working class just can’t afford to fork out £150 a day for van hire. The only artists doing that are people who have deeper pockets and can afford to take the hit.'”

News of the Wired

“Etsy crochet buyers say AI-made images are being used to sell disappointing patterns” [NBC]. “A yarn-woven Garfield, a highland cow and a baby dragon are just some of the cute plush items displayed in the Etsy stores of crochet-pattern merchants. But shoppers at the online store, which specializes in handmade, vintage and unique goods, say the polished final products that appear in the Etsy images aren’t anything like the final products made with the patterns, and that they think the images might be made with artificial intelligence. Crochet, a practice of making clothing items, fabrics and collectibles out of yarn, has a thriving community on Etsy. And many enthusiasts, rather than buy the finished product, buy the patterns, which typically range from $2 to $10, that instruct them in crafting the items themselves. An NBC News search for “crochet patterns” returned more than half a dozen storefronts with crochet pattern product listings that appear to feature dozens of AI-generated images. Etsy broadly allows AI-generated content, to the dismay of some sellers. However, Etsy requires sellers to accurately depict their products in listing photos. In response to NBC News’ request for comment, Etsy said that its Purchase Protection Program allows buyers to receive refunds for products that don’t accurately reflect what was advertised on the platform. It also said it takes action against sellers who have been the subject of multiple complaints.” • So why do the knitters have to shovel back the tide of AI crap? Why isn’t that Etsy’s job?

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From DL:

DL writes: “Gorse at Glendalough, County Wicklow, Ireland, on Holy Thursday, 2019.”

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