Category Archives: China

Rebalancing, Wealth Transfers, and the Growth of Chinese Debt

By Michael Pettis, a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a finance professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management. Cross posted from China Financial Markets. For the past ten years much of what I have written about debt in China was aimed mainly at trying to convince analysts and policymakers […]


Michael Pettis: China – How Much Investment is Optimal?

If China’s very low level of social capital has long ago made its investment strategy obsolete, that suggests that China has overinvested beyond its capacity to utilize these investments economically. Thus there are hidden losses on bank balance sheets created by the failure to write down physical capital to its true value. In this case Chinese growth cannot help but drop significantly as these losses are finally recognized and as investment levels are sharply curtailed.