Category Archives: Guest Post

Perfect Hindsight: on Breder Suasso of NZ and elsewhere, Global Transaction Services, of Hong Kong, Georgia (US) and London, mBank and Pekao Bank SA of Poland, and Ceska Sporitelna AS of the Czech Republic

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The Great Normalisation of Global Trade

Exceptionally weak global trade growth over recent years has presented a puzzle to academics and policymakers alike. This column presents a study by an expert network across European central banks which suggests that it may actually be the past strength of trade which was exceptional, rather than the subsequent slowdown. The recent deceleration of trade growth can thus be seen as a ‘great normalisation’. The important implication is that an upturn in aggregate demand will not necessarily lead to a significant recovery in global trade.