Before our current age of nuclear war anxiety, there was widespread concern about an earlier terrifying weapon of mass destruction: poison gas. I will describe the history of war gases in the context of our current concerns about atomic war. It is an ugly topic, but examining it may provide some hope for a way […]
Read more...A compact comprehensive discussion of the present state and future prospects of AI technologies applied to armed conflict is an impossible mission, but I will undertake it here. What gives me encouragement is the great difficulty of prognostication regarding AI. I believe AI will be the most profound transformation of human affairs in the history […]
Read more...As the war in Ukraine moves toward an ugly conclusion unfavorable to the U.S., I anticipate the appearance of a common propaganda phenomenon following lost wars: the stab in the back. This is a propaganda tactic in which military defeat is attributed to domestic treachery undermining the heroic efforts of the military. The bellicose elements […]
Read more...We have entered an era in which warfare has departed from the conventional (Clausewitzian) concept of attaining clear objectives. Instead, modern armed conflict is characterized by limited and generally inconclusive military clashes motivated by factors disconnected from the practical concerns of the affected citizens. War has turned away from decisive conflict and embraced performative spectacle. […]
Read more...Circular error probability (CEP) is the metric weapons designers use to describe the accuracy of munitions. CEP is defined as the radius of a circle, centered on the intended target, within which 50% of projectiles or warheads are expected to land. As guidance technology has advanced, CEPs of modern missiles and drones have grown smaller. […]
Read more...The fog of war is thick over the current hostilities between Israel and Iran, but the intense interest in short-term outcomes of this regional war may be obscuring the ultimate prospects for Israel as negative trends undermine its militaristic foreign policy. I will describe these trends and the likely outcome. Loss of International Support The […]
Read more...The Central Intelligence Agency has in many ways achieved the opposite of the purpose for which it was founded. Instead of increasing the security of the U.S., it has weakened it. The CIA is a main element of what is known as the Deep State, a permanent government that operates apart from the democratic machinery […]
Read more...I have followed the war in Ukraine closely since 2022, and now that the war seems to be heading toward a conclusion, I would like to offer some observations. The War Was Planned and Guided by Western Governments Recent revelations have ended the pretense that Ukraine has been directing its war against Russia independently with […]
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