Ben Stein Watch: June 8, 2008 Felix Salmon
Another 1% hike in minimum reserves Michael Pettis. China’s monetary policy goes from “extremely loose” to marginally less so.
Asian Crisis Redux? Hot Money Leaving Philippines International Political Economy Zone
Unemployment and the credit cycle Steve Waldman. Nice concise post (so do read it) with a key takeaway:
Some argue that the US economy is structurally immune from the wrenching spikes in unemployment that used to accompany recessions, because employment has transitioned from volatile manufacturing to more mellow services. See, for example. this excellent analysis from Calculated Risk. CR chooses 8% unemployment as his threshold for a “severe” recession. But the US economy need not lose a single job more to bring unemployment to that level. If participation rose back to the levels of the late 90s without a commensurate increase in new jobs, we’d be there already.
Crisis shifts to regional lenders Financial Times. Not only was this development foretold at the RGE Monitor sponsored panel I attended in New York, but they had the timing perfect. I recall it was Chris Whalen of Institutional Risk Analytics who predicted the wheels would start coming off regional and local banks in the June-July timeframe.
Antidote du jour (and for those in the US Northeast, to our heatwave):