Yearly Archives: 2008

Things could have turned out otherwise.

This post is by Jim Fitch of Some Assembly Required. Things could have turned out otherwise. Pot / Kettle: Headline: Bush: China Must End Detentions, Ensure Freedoms. Optimism: Why all the cheering for oil at under $120 a barrel? The price is falling not because some new supply has been found, but because the economies […]

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Inflation conundrum

Krugman doesn’t think inflation expectations will lead to wage growth: … inflation is well under control: wages aren’t taking off, the labor market is weak, and once oil and food price spikes end we’ll be, if anything, in a deflationary environment… I don’t think there’s any fundamental inflation problem, just a one-time hit on food […]

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China Desk

Brad Setser thinks that China is again holding the RMB down to maintain export volume in the face of softening global demand. From the comments (my emphasis): China prefers subsidizing US consumption of Chinese goods to subsidizing Chinese consumption of Chinese goods… if China’s foreign asset accumulation continues at $800b a year, it will add $3.2 […]

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An oil standard

Ok. Oil. Exxon Mobil reported a second-quarter profit of nearly $12 billion — a number that works out (as many did) to about $39 for every man, woman and child in America; $90,000 a minute etc. Mark Thoma has a think about the future price of gasoline for us. The punch line: If past global […]

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Techonomics

When people ask what I do for a living I tell them I do wealth preservation. If they ask how I do that, I say I do three things: read the direction of inevitable changes in the world, discover and value investment possibilities in the context of those changes, and allocate risk capital among those […]

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Ever wonder….

This a post by Jim Fitch ofSome Assembly Required. Ever wonder where the adults have gone? Coal Mine: Citigroup reports a $176 million 2Q08 loss on credit-card secutization. A pittance, but perhaps the canary for a business that previously generated over $3 billion in revenues. Company’s Here: For the first time since the 70’s, inflation […]

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Ruminations on Moral Hazard

I hate to start with apologies, but I’m clearly a little late to this guest-blogging gig. I knew that would be the case—Thursday morning 10 minutes or so after the market opened I headed north from Hartford, Ct, on my way to Grand Lake Stream, Maine, about two hours northeast of Bangor, to a gathering […]

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Bernanke facing revolt over inflation?

According to the Times, U.S. inflation hit a 27 year high in June: Inflation jumped by 0.8 per cent in the month of June, the most since February 1981, when prices rose by 1.0 per cent, according to the Commerce Department. Bloomberg reports today that while the Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged for […]

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Year of Lending Dangerously

The FT’s Gillian Tett writes up a blow-by-blow of the credit crisis; and the spread chart is a good reminder of how different things still are: On August 9 2007, the European Central Bank sent shock waves around world financial capitals when it injected €95bn ($150bn, £75bn) worth of funds into the money markets to […]

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Oil below $120: Has the commodities bubble been pricked?

NYMEX Crude oil futures dipped below $120 today for the first time since May. Furthermore, Bloomberg reports that “Plunging prices for cocoa, natural gas and sugar are sending the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities to it biggest one-day decline since March.” Bloomberg cites the slowing U.S. economy, rising inventories, and prospects for improved production […]

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Quelle Surprise! Greenspan warns about the dangers of regulation

(Apologies to Yves, but I believe she would have tagged it similarly) Despite the mounting evidence that the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression was at least exacerbated by the lack of appropriate regulation and oversight in numerous markets ranging from the home mortgage lending to the securitization process to OTC derivatives markets to […]

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If Your Stock Goes Down, It MUST Be Short-Sellers

IF one is the chief a monoline, bank or other financial holding company with large, dubious, asset-backed exposures, it is understandable that during the denial phase of coming to terms with one’s fate, that one would like to blame someone else, anyone else, but in particular, blame the nefarious Short Sellers. We’ll ignore the asymmetry […]

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Some Futures need throwing away…

This a posting by Jim Fitch ofSome Assembly Required. Some futures need throwing away.William Gibson, Spook Country Buy The Numbers: GM sold 2.29 million vehicles in the most recent quarter, loosing $6,756 a vehicle. A Word From Our Sponsor: In the yelling match discussion over drilling in the Arctic and in the magical kingdom of […]

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