Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns.
In the clearest signal yet that we are still in a potentially devastating global deflationary spiral, The Riksbank, Sweden’s central bank and the world’s oldest central bank, has effectively cut interest rates to minus 0.25% and has started a program of quantitative easing a.k.a printing money. These are the most dramatic moves yet by a major central bank and will be watched the world over for signs of success or failure. Let me explain what the Swedes are doing and why.
On the 2 July 2009, the Riksbank unexpectedly lowered rates across the board. Economists had expected the Riksbank to keep the repo rate at the low 0.5% level. The repo rate is the official bank rate at which banks can borrow from the central bank against government bond collateral. It is the floor rate, the lowest rate in the banking system. But, the Swedes lowered the rate to 0.25%, a record low.
The interesting bits were buried deep in the accompanying press release, namely that the Riksbank was to engage in quantitative easing and to penalize banks for holding reserve deposits. The full press release is below with the important parts highlighted in bold. I will translate this econ-o-speak into plain English after the Riksbank statement.
The weak development of the economy requires a somewhat more expansionary monetary policy. The Executive Board of the Riksbank has therefore decided to cut the repo rate by 0.25 of a percentage point to 0.25 per cent. The repo rate is expected to remain at this low level over the coming year. At the same time there are several signs that economic activity will improve.
Deep economic downturn
Economic activity abroad is very weak and this hits Sweden hard. Exports have fallen substantially and the situation on the labour market is continuing to deteriorate rapidly. The information received in recent months points to the economic downturn in 2009 being somewhat deeper than the Riksbank forecast in April.
Low repo rate over a long period of time
A lower repo rate and repo rate path are needed to counteract the fall in production and employment and to attain the inflation target of 2 per cent. The Executive Board of the Riksbank has therefore decided to cut the repo rate to 0.25 per cent. The repo rate is expected to remain at this low level until autumn 2010. The Riksbank’s assessment is that cutting the rate to 0.25 per cent will not threaten the functioning of the financial markets.
The Riksbank’s assessment is that after cutting the repo rate to 0.25 per cent it will have reached its lower limit in practice, and that the situation on the financial markets is still not completely normal. Supplementary measures are necessary to ensure that monetary policy has the intended effect. The Executive Board of the Riksbank has therefore decided to offer loans totalling SEK 100 billion to the banks at a fixed interest rate and with a maturity of 12 months. This should contribute to lower interest rates on loans to companies and households.
Stable underlying inflation
Despite the expansionary monetary policy, production and employment will be lower than normal over the next few years. Inflation will be kept up by weak productivity and a weak krona. However, there will be large fluctuations in CPI inflation during the coming period. This is primarily due to the fact that changes in the repo rate affect mortgage rates, which are included in the CPI. The CPIF underlying inflation rate (the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate) will on the other hand remain stable close to 2 per cent during the forecast period.
Signs of a turnaround
In recent months there have been several signs that economic activity will improve. At the same time, the financial markets in Sweden and abroad have begun to function more effectively, which creates the potential for an acceleration in international and domestic demand. The low repo rate and current fiscal policy will also contribute to the recovery. GDP growth is expected to be positive in 2010, but the labour market will lag behind and employment will not begin to rise until 2011.
The economic outlook is still uncertain. When the turnaround comes, the upturn may be stronger than in the main scenario. However, it could also be the case that the recovery will take longer than expected. The future direction for monetary policy will therefore depend on how new information on economic developments abroad and in Sweden will affect the prospects for inflation and economic activity in Sweden.
Forecast for inflation and GDP Annual percentage change
2008 2009 2010 2011
3.4 -0.2 (-0.3) 1.4 (1.3) 3.2 (3.2) CPIF 2.7 1.9 (1.9) 1.9 (1.8) 2.0 (2.0) GDP -0.2 -5.4 (-4.5) 1.4 (1.3) 3.1 (3.1)
Inflation forecast, 12-month figures Annual percentage change
Sept. 09 Sept. 10 Sept. 11 Sept. 12 CPI -1.2 (-1.4) 1.5 (1.4) 3.7 (3.7) 3.7 CPIF 1.5 (1.4) 1.7 (1.6) 2.0 (2.1) 2.2
Note. The assessment in the April 2009 Monetary Policy Update is shown in brackets. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Forecast for the repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Repo rate 0.6 0.3 (0.5) 0.3 (0.5) 0.3 (0.5) 1.8 (1.8) 4.0
Note. The assessment in the April 2009 Monetary Policy Update is shown in brackets. Source: The Riksbank
Deputy Governor Lars E.O. Svensson entered a reservation against the decision and advocated cutting the repo rate to 0 per cent and a repo rate path in line with the scenario for a lower repo rate in the Monetary Policy Report, so that the repo rate would be kept at this level for one year. He considered that such a repo rate path entails a better balanced monetary policy, with lower unemployment and higher resource utilisation without inflation deviating too far from the target.
Deputy Governor Barbro Wickman-Parak supported the decision to cut the repo rate to 0.25 percentage points, but entered a reservation against the growth forecasts, and thereby the repo rate path these entailed, in the Monetary Policy Report. Ms Wickman-Parak said her stance was due to a more positive view of economic activity both abroad and in Sweden further ahead, which would mean that the repo rate would need to be raised earlier than is forecast in the main scenario of the Monetary Policy Report.
The minutes from the Executive Board’s monetary policy discussion will be published on 16 July. The decision on the repo rate will apply with effect from Wednesday, 8 July. The deposit rate is at the same time cut to -0.25 per cent and the lending rate to 0.75 per cent. A press conference with Deputy Governor Barbro Wickman-Parak and Anders Vredin, Head of the Monetary Policy Department, will be held today at 11 a.m. in the Riksbank. Entry via the bank’s main entrance, Brunkebergstorg 11. Press cards must be shown. The press conference will be broadcast live on the Riksbank’s website, www.riksbank.se/.
So, here’s what the Swedes are saying:
- Economic activity abroad is very weak and this hits Sweden hard. That means the Swedes can’t export their way to prosperity because no one is buying. Everyone is in a synchronized global downturn. One subtext I should mention is that Sweden is greatly affected by the collapse in the Baltics because there was a huge trade flow and banking relationship between Sweden and the Baltics. Therefore, the economic depression there is not good for the Swedes or their banking system.
- A lower repo rate and repo rate path are needed to counteract the fall in production and employment and to attain the inflation target of 2 per cent. Output and employment in Sweden is so weak now that it is creating deflation. We have to lower interest rates in an effort to stimulate borrowing, which we hope increases credit and ultimately production and employment.
- The Riksbank’s assessment is that after cutting the repo rate to 0.25 per cent it will have reached its lower limit in practice, and that the situation on the financial markets is still not completely normal. Look, we are cutting rates as low as they can go, effectively zero. And financial markets are still not normal. Banks just are not lending enough to create the credit in the system necessary to increase production and employment.
- The Executive Board of the Riksbank has therefore decided to offer loans totalling SEK 100 billion to the banks at a fixed interest rate and with a maturity of 12 months. Because cutting rates, the policy tool we prefer, is not getting the job done, we are going to effectively print money out of thin air. We will start making loans to banks with fictitious money that we create solely to increase the amount of money in circulation in a desperate attempt to increase consumer and business credit, consumer price inflation, and output.
- The deposit rate is at the same time cut to -0.25 per cent. And as an extra measure, we will start penalizing banks for not lending by charging them 0.25% for holding deposits at the Riksbank. Now, they will have every incentive to start lending…we hope.
Pretty aggressive plan, if you ask me. Will it work, though?
Well, first of all, most every major central bank in the world, certainly the biggest: the Americans, the Eurozone, the British, the Swiss, and the Japanese, have rates near zero and are printing money. The world is awash in money and the incentive to borrow is huge. So, is the Swedish announcement qualitatively different? On some level, it is not. Nevertheless, it is the most aggressive policy and the fact that they are charging negative interest rates for deposits is unprecedented. This does make events in Sweden something to watch.
Moreover, the situation in Sweden is bleak. GDP is expected to contract 5.4% this year and inflation is expected to be negative. Clearly, the Swedes are in a deflationary spiral. It doesn’t help that its banks lent recklessly to the Baltics and that those countries are imploding. The Swedish banking system is at present severely undercapitalized – this is why lending is not taking place. The chart to the right of key figures from the Riksbank website sums it up.
So, the Swedes are lending and printing money. What’s more is they are taking economists up on their suggestions regarding negative interest rates. Back in April and May, Greg Mankiw and Willem Buiter suggested that negative interest rates were the way to go in order to deal with these problems. Basically, you are giving people money to borrow. There cannot be much more incentive than that.
The thing is you can lead a borrower to the bank, but you can’t make him borrow. Do you even want him to borrow? The last time I checked, it was savings and investment which created long-term growth. In my view, people are terrified of over-borrowing now and no amount of easy money is going to change that overnight.
Here’s the problem. I take a fairly Austrian School tack here. Punishing savers by lowering interest rates to zero and printing money is not going to solve the problem. The problem was low interest rate and easy money to begin with (and a lack of regulatory oversight never hurts too). This created a binge of reckless lending. We are now seeing the result of that lending worldwide, Sweden included.
What Sweden needs is more capital in its banking system. Remember the whole song and dance about the Swedish solution? Supposedly, the Swedes were brave enough in the early 1990s to bite the bullet and nationalize insolvent banks in order to re-capitalise the banking system and get lending going again. Everyone and his sister was saying this is what America needed to do (including me). I still say this is what needs to be done: punish reckless lenders by liquidating zombie undercapitalized banks but provide enough liquidity at normal interest rates to keep the system intact. And, I am sure taxpayers would be a lot more willing to pony up under these circumstances than under the present policy of giving the reckless lenders free handouts. If you want to prevent systemic collapse, it is the banking system, not the banks, which is important.
But, apparently, everyone just wants easy money and no one wants the Swedish solution – not the Americans and certainly not the Swedes.
Update 1300ET: Note – so as not to play too fast and lose with my terminology, I should clarify that the Riksbank is charging banks for holding deposits at the Riksbank. They are not lending at negative interest rates as the statement “Basically, you are giving people money to borrow” suggests. Also, regarding the lending by the Riksbank, they are not technically engaging in quantitative easing (buying government paper with new money). However, the net effect of the lending is to increase credit flow.
Ed, m'bro, I completely agree, and have been advocating the same for two years now. Kill the zombies; let's get on with it. We will have no growth until we do. But the powers that be are tied to the dead corpse of the past, and will try every possible solution before getting to the one way out.
Headshots, m'friends. And a debt jubilee for the proles might be no bad idea. They can't borrow because they're tapped. Who're they tapped _too_? Dead zombie banks. Burn the corpse at both ends, then. Sez I.
Swedbank and SE banked did recapitalize (most exposure to the Baltic).
Well a debt jubilee would certainly make people more willing to borrow – but who in the world would be willing to lend to them? Talk about moral hazard. The benefits of penalizing RECKLESS BORROWERS is just as great as the benefits of penalizing RECKLESS LENDERS.
Tempus fugit, I a well aware of the capital raised at Swedbank and SEB. But, Citi and BofA have raised a lot of capital too. KBC and Fortis as well. RBS and Lloyds have as well. Just because one raises capital, does not mean that it will be enough.
I predict this will be an epic FAIL. It does not deal with the simple fact that most of those who would borrow are either tapped out or suffer borrowing fatigue / fear whatever you want to call it.
Its like offering seconds or thirds at Christmas dinner and the "stuffed" guest says "ugh..no thanks, its great and tasty..but no more!"
Until mass psychology changes, this is a no go.
I think one of the topics missed in all of these discussions is the lack of lending.
-Home mortgages are not being reworked. None of the banks are willing to get a haircut! Nevermind the perilous conditions of the banks, the head of the mortgages department doesn't want a 'fail' on her record. What are the chances her success/failure evaluation have changed to accommodate haircuts?
-Anecdotal evidence abounds that business credit is way, way more expensive.
-Anecdotal evidence that non-stressed mortgage refi's are using low, low interest rates as a teaser with the borrower getting buried on fees/points.
The political means (as in average) goal of liquidity for economic activity is an epic fail. The money appears stuck at the banks who won't lend at prior low-costs.
/"Punishing savers by lowering interest rates to zero and printing money is not going to solve the problem."/
The lack of savings does seem to be the crux of the problem as well as the many who do not see it as a problem.
It had been predicted before the situation turned so dire nations would follow the Japanese model of zero or near zero interest rates to ameliorate their fiscal woes, the dumping of cheap monies to rectify excesses and poor decisions of the past. So it appears now to be a (near, China?) universal means, as even Sweden will embark on this venture. Such might be the regiment of a World Trade economy that given the lack of consumer nations to "consume", producing nations suffer disproportionate consequence.
Sweden will bear watching in the coming years as the natural consequence of increased accumulation of monies in hard times is savings (or the reduction of debt) which would seem to be what the Swedish government is trying to prevent in hopes a short-term solution will bring long-term relief.
i don't think negative interest rates would really make sense in the US at the moment because the federal reserve is deliberately paying interest to sterilize their support of the banking system. if the federal reserve started penalizing reserves the fed would lose control of the target rate.
40 acres and a mule . . .
Give the people or small businesses direct grants, rather than the "spread" to the banks.
The Swedes are in bed with the Merchants of Debt like the rest of the industrialized world.
The Swedish approach is a very sensible one. Inflating produces economic benefits now, by averting a liquidity trap, at the cost of economic losses later, from inflationary distortions. The Fed policy of lending money to the banks so it can borrow it back at slightly higher rates does almost nothing to avert a liquidity trap while creating a staggering risk of high inflation later. The Swedish approach can end the liquidity trap immediately (assuming there's enough quantitative easing). There will be inflation, but it will happen quickly, and it will be the minimum to escape the liquidity trap. More benefit than the Fed strategy at less cost.
The Fed approach is geared to enriching real estate speculators (especially MBS-owning banks) rather than to averting depression. Given the political power of large financial institutions due to privately financed elections and extensive legal lobbying, this probably is intentional rather than accidental on the part of the Fed. It's certainly no surprise.
is this the central banks way of telling depositors to get their money out of the banks before they blow up when eastern europe does?
The problem is that Riksbank's definition of "normal" is abnomal.
You missed one interesting piece of this story. I asked John Hempton of Bronte Capital about this: http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLH15490720090617 and the answer is basically that Handelsbanken has excess cash and no idéa where to put it.
But that can be interpreted as: we have banks that have bad loans and banks that have cash but cannot come up with any reasonable safe investment than to lend it to Riksbanken.
There is bad investment you can make or not make. Where is the good investment?
Nice article. I wrote an article on Seeking Alpha about negative interest rates, as well, about a month ago.
I don't really understand why people get so bent out of shape about this subject. I don't see it as any different than a reverse inflation. The system thrives on a mild currency loss, and however that can be obtained seems logical. I'm not advocating that ethically, just trying to imagine solutions to this current unethical mess we're in.
Hmmmmm…. and here I thought it was the Swedish model of handling this crisis that we all had to follow. Ah well, there goes another Euro-Lazy-Socialist theory out the window…
Now, how about microcredits for the Western world? Do we qualify yet as Third World nations?
Mankiw and Buiter didn't exactly discuss negative interest on reserves, they proposed negative interest on currency, which isn't really technically feasible. Negative interest on reserves is feasible and I have advocated it for the Fed since last fall. In case anyone is interested, here is a post from my blog, which I entered after a long email back and forth with Mankiw on the idea.