Served by Jesse of Le Café Américain
The Atlantic hurricane season is officially from 1 June to 30 November.
But according to the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory AOML, with regard to Atlantic hurricanes there is a “very peaked season from August to October”, with:
- 78% of the tropical storm days
- 87% of the “minor” hurricane days
- 96% of the “major” hurricane days
And within the hurricane season, early to mid-September is the peak.
In addition to the obvious humanitarian concerns, this is of interest to the financial community because of the large concentration of drilling platforms, refineries, and tanker delivery facilities serving the United States located in the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricanes offer a tempting opportunity for energy “investment.”
The correlation between hurricane activity and natural gas prices is almost nonexistent. It's an example of remember the five storms that spiked prices (Ivan, Katrina/Rita for example) and forgetting about the dozens that did not.
While hurricanes can knock out a lot of platforms, they can also knock out a lot of electricity load (if they hit Florida, for example, or the Carolinas). This year, with so much natural gas supply and record inventories, hurricanes may offer more opportunity to short gas on any temporary psychological price bounce.