Yearly Archives: 2011

La Niña as Black Swan – Energy, Food Prices, and Chinese Economy Among Likely Casualites

Reader Crocodile Chuck highlighted an important post at Houses and Holes, an economics-oriented Australian blog. While Australia is reeling from the immediate impact, the broader impact of 2010-11 weather patterns may have much bigger ramifications for food and energy prices in Australia and abroad.

The post focuses on the possibility, increasingly endorsed by top meteorologists, that the heavy Australian rains are the result of a super La Niña, the last of which was seen in 1973-4,the time of the last severe flooding in Queensland. Super La Niñas are hugely disruptive to agricultural production and can have other nasty knock-on effects (some contend the 1917 La Niña helped spawn the 1918 influenza pandemic).

In this case, the damage of a super La Niña will not only increase food costs at a time when price rises and food scarcity are already a major concern, but will likely extend to energy prices as well. That one-two punch would be particularly devastating to China.

Is Incoming New York Attorney General Schneiderman Going to Be Too Soft on Bank Abuses?

An article in the Wall Street Journal says that the incoming New York state attorney general, Eric Schneiderman, is going to be nicer to Wall Street than his predecessors Eliot Spitzer and Andrew Cuomo. Given that Cuomo decided to take financial firm chicanery seriously only fairly late in his term of office, the Wall Street Journal assessment does not bode well for the prospect of tough enforcement.

The reason this matters is that the New York state AG has a particularly effective weapon, the Martin Act. One of the continuing frustrations I have as a writer and a citizen is the use of the word “fraud”. Activities that by any common-sense standard are fraudulent probably don’t meet the legal standard for fraud. In very crude terms, one of the hurdles that needs to be overcome is intent. If a perp can argue that he thought what he did was not improper (his attorneys or accountant blessed it, it never occurred to him it was an abuse, etc.) or he can claim it was a mistake, he can get off scot free. The very fact that Joe Cassano, the head of AIG’s Financial Products Group, has not been prosecuted serves as an illustration of difficulties involved.

Guest Post: “The Fed No Longer Even Denies that the Purpose of Its Latest Blast of Bond Purchases … Is To Drive Up Wall Street

As the following charts show, QE2 isn’t driving down bond rates – it’s stated goal. But it is helping the stock market. Is that good enough?

Links 1/15/11

Floods Spread Across Australia as Brisbane Residents Clean Up Bloomberg. The American Australian Association has set up a website to take donations from US residents to help provide relief (and yes, the IRS says donations are tax deductible). Please give if you can!

Airborne Prions Make for 100 Percent Lethal Whiff Wired

Swine flu gives its survivors supercharged immunity io9 (hat tip reader May S)

Should We Believe Jamie Dimon’s Crocodile Tears Over How Much Mortgages Have Cost Banks?

Jamie Dimon told the press on Friday that the mortgage crisis has been costly (but not TOO costly) for JP Morgan. From MarketWatch (hat tip Lisa Epstein):

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said Friday that the foreclosure process is a “mess” that’s cost the financial-services giant a lot of money.

Dimon also said litigation over troubled mortgage securities is “going to be a long, ugly mess,” but won’t be “life-threatening” for J.P. Morgan….

More Reasons Why Banks Should Worry About Ibanez Decision

Banks and the securitization industry have been spinning the Ibanez decision as hard as they can, even going so far as to put forward Baghdad Bob style claims that the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court ruling said that mortgage assignment in blank worked, when a reading of the ruling show the polar opposite.

Georgetown law professor Adam Levitin has done a bit of digging to see if the securitization industry defenders’ claims, that most mortgages in RMBS meet the documentation standard set forth in Ibanez, actually holds up. He find that many deals fail to meet the decisions’ requirements:

Greenspan Put, aka “Be Nice to Banks”, Trumped Recognition of Housing Bubble in 2005

In an interesting bit of synchronicity, we’re getting other “how did we get there” snippets from the global financial crisis today. Bloomberg reports that the Federal Reserve actually did see that a housing bubble was underway, but stuck to its guns of measured interest rate increases. The problem is that its account is far too kind to the Fed and comes awfully close to being revisionist history:

Federal Reserve staff and policy makers identified a housing bubble in 2005, and failed to alter a predictable path of interest-rate increases to slow down the expansion of mortgage credit, transcripts from Open Market Committee meetings that year show….

The FOMC in June heard presentations from staff economists, with some raising alarms about housing markets, the transcript shows. Those warnings didn’t translate into a more aggressive policy. The committee raised the benchmark lending rate a quarter-point at that meeting and said “policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured.”..

Links 1/14/11

Ellen Stewart, Off Off Broadway Pioneer, Dies at 91 New York Times World’s first flu-resistant GM chickens ‘created’ BBC (hat tip reader John M) EDSAC computer to be rebuilt at Bletchley Park PC Pro Skepticism and wealthy investors John Hempton (hat tip Richard Smith) Attorney at firm representing Assange accusers helped facilitate CIA renditions in […]

SIGTARP on Citi Rescue: Ignoring a Bomb That Has Yet to Be Defused

On the one hand, I must confess to a “I love the smell of napalm in the morning” response to reading the SIGTARP report on the extraordinary assistance extended to Citigroup, starting in November 2009. The well-documented, blow by blow account, taken from the perspective of regulators, dovetails neatly with the reports here and on other blogs during those fear-filled, gripping times. (As an aside, frustratingly, the media is treating some factoids in the account, such Citi’s reliance on over $500 billion of uninsured foreign deposits out of a $2 trillion balance sheet, as news, when it was noted repeatedly in the blogosphere, particularly here).

But on the other hand, the SIGTARP report is annoying, in that it fails to connect some critical dots, diminishes the importance of its key finding, and is far too complimentary to the officialdom.

Securitization Industry Defenders Present Even More Dubious Defenses

Wow, having liability on opinion letters on securitizations will lead law firms to try to pass off distorted readings of court decisions to save their bacon.

The latest example is K&L Gates, one of the signers of the executive summary of an American Securitization Forum paper issued last November. It endeavored to defend securitization industry practices that have led securitization trusts which own mortgages to have difficulty foreclosing. Even thought its claims are increasingly being rebutted in court decisions, the ASF cohort seems to believe that if it tells the Big Lie long enough and loudly enough, the problem will go away. But judges have this funny habit of being very independent, so I sincerely doubt this strategy has any chance of succeeding.

Should We Buy Geithner’s Resistance to Naming “Systemically Important” Firms?

According to the Financial Times, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is trying to duck the assignment given the Financial Stability Oversight Council under the Dodd Frank legislation, namely, that of identifying “systemically important” financial institutions:

Tim Geithner, the Treasury secretary, has questioned the feasibility of identifying financial institutions as “systemically important” in advance of a crisis, just as the regulatory council he chairs is supposed to start doing precisely that…

Marshall Auerback: Chinese Trade Policy Must Focus on Social Consequences

By Marshall Auerback, a portfolio strategist and hedge fund manager; first posted at New Deal 2.0

Focusing on currency isn’t going to cut it for America’s workers.

You have to have a sense of irony to watch the latest maneuvers on trade with China. Obama continues to turn his administration into “Clinton Mark III”. (Enter Gene Sperling and Jacob Lew, following the revolving door departures of Peter Orszag and Larry Summers). The president continues to turn to many of the very folks who paved the way for China’s eclipse of the US economy. Granting China normal trade status under the World Trade Organization, as President Clinton did during his presidency, facilitated the expansion of China’s external sector, which coincided with a big step-up in the ratio of fixed capital formation to GDP. The WTO entry is how China managed to increase its growth rate from 2002 to 2007, using an undervalued currency to cannibalize the tradeables sector of its main Asian competitors and increasingly hollowing out US manufacturing in the process. At this stage, however, despite the ongoing requests by Treasury Secretary Geithner that “China needs to do more” on its currency, a simple revaluation of the yuan won’t cut it.