By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Readers, as usual with a Clinton speech, it took me longer to struggle in and out of my yellow waders than I thought it would, so Water Cooler will be a little bit light today, and (for various reasons, partly vacation-y) through Labor Day.
O’Malley to propose expansion of Social Security [WaPo].
Sanders and #BlackLivesMatter in South Carolina [Reuters].
Sanders’ campaign staff met with the Charleston chapter of activist group Black Lives Matter on Friday night, said local activist Muhiyidin D’Baha who attended Saturday night’s speech. “They’ve been really good in receiving critique. We’re really hoping that we have impacted his message.”
I’ve gotta say: Contrast Clinton.
“Maybe This Time Really Is Different” [Norman Ornstein, The Atlantic]. Maybe Trump won’t be a flash in the pan.
Walker disagrees [Wall Street Journal, “Walker: ‘No Margin for Growth’ for Trump”]. But he would.
What total Republican control of a state really means [Reuters]. That Democratic weak bench again.
Forget about the hair and the white shoes. Is Trump broke? [The Alpha Pages]. From a writer who knows the habits of squillionaries well: Trump isn’t displaying those habits. So….
“At Koch group summit, a restrained enthusiasm for Trump” [Reuters]. When people start calling Trump “Reagan-esque,” you’ll know real normalization will have set in.
“[A] Facebook-driven grassroots movement of Bernie Sanders supporters is seeking 100,000 or more RSVP’s from other Sanders supporters to attend a mass rally at the Washington Mall on or around October 17, with the theme ‘enough is enough,’ in support of the Sanders candidacy [New York Observer (spooz)]. Like the Dean Bat, except for people, not dollars. (Adding that amazingly, I can’t find an image of “The Dean Bat,” which the Howard Dean campaign used for its innovative online small-donor campaign. What a long time ago that was.)
“Joe Biden’s Role in ’90s Crime Law Could Haunt Any Presidential Bid” [New York Times].
Clinton goes hyperlocal in Iowa [Business Insider]. “Clinton commented on her efforts to make local connections at a Burlington house party this summer. ‘I want to know what’s actually happening, so I can come up with proposals that may actually change people’s lives,’ she said.” It’s like she took that script and ran it on #BlackLivesMatter.
Is the Clinton campaign buying Facebook likes? [Reddit]. From “r/SandersForPresident,” so cum grano salis.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index, July 2015: “July was a very solid month for the economy, based on the national activity index which rose to a stronger-than-expected” [Bloomberg].
Wheee! “The drop in Dow marked its largest one-day point decline ever on an intraday basis, as intensifying growth fears sparked steep stock-market losses world-wide” [Wall Street Journal, “Dow Pares Losses After 1,089-Point Plunge But Still Down Sharply in Global Rout”]. What growth? Granted, things can always get worse.
Wheee! “The pace of selling on global bourses is accelerating at the start of the US session after Chinese stocks led a sell-off across Asia that prompted further questions about the outlook for policy in Beijing and at the Federal Reserve” [Financial Times, “Global sell-off hits US indices”]
“U.S. markets average one 10 percent correction every 20 months. On average, we should expect these declines to take 71 trading days to play out (about three months)” [Barry Ritholtz, Bloomberg].
“Here’s What Usually Happens to Markets After the S&P 500 Drops 5 Percent in a Week” [Bloomberg]. “Some of the standout years include huge drawdowns of more than 20 percent over the next 12 weeks in 1987 and 2008. On the opposite side of the spectrum, there were massive turnarounds in 1998 and 2009. ”
“Officials say Europe’s recovery, based on rock-bottom interest rates, cheap and still declining oil prices and a weak euro, remains well grounded despite the swings in global equity prices” [Market News].
“The Chinese yuan is doing what officials said it would do: there is more volatility but no large moves” [Above the Curve]. Lots of technicals for turbulent markets.
“[T]his looks like the kind of healthy correction we should periodically expect in a richly valued market” [James Surowiecki, The New Yorker]. “Amazon, for instance, isn’t worth two hundred and thirty billion dollars because of how much money investors think it will make over the next five years, but because of how much money investors think it will make over the next thirty, forty, or even fifty years. And over that long a stretch of time, even small changes in how fast a company grows can have very big economic consequences. The difference between growing, say, ten per cent a year and growing twelve per cent a year is trivial over a one-year span. But over a thirty-year span, it becomes surprisingly important.”
“The scale of the rout over the last week appears to have persuaded an increasing number in global markets that the fall in commodity prices over the last few months is less a benign transfer of wealth [!!] from producer countries to consumer ones, than a symptom of the world economy’s inability to generate enough demand to absorb everything that’s being produced” [Fortune].
“[D]on’t round on the usual suspect of short-termism. Animal spirits with the longest horizons may be the ones that really bite” [FT, “Free Lunch: Making sense of financial carnage”]
“While the stock losses of the largest Wall Street banks were manageable last Thursday, they picked up steam on Friday. What was particularly surprising was that JPMorgan’s losses were on a par with those of Citigroup” [Wall Street on Parade]. Even though Citi is under indictment again.
The Fed: “Three-quarters of U.S. business economists surveyed see liftoff happening this year and a little more than a third expect the Fed’s first rate hike in more than nine years to happen in September. The new survey was taken before the stock market began to plummet” [Market News]. No doubt!
The Fed: “The central bank waited too long to raise interest rates. Now, with global markets in turmoil, it should hold off” [Gerald P. O’Driscoll, Wall Street Journal, “The Fed Flirts With the Right Move at the Wrong Time”].
The Fed: “[T]he official focus this year [at Jackson Hole] will be ‘Inflation [!!] Dynamics and Monetary Policy'” [Bloomberg].
As in August 1997, 1998, 2007 and 2008 we could be in the early stage of a very serious situation.
— Lawrence H. Summers (@LHSummers) August 24, 2015
“Trying to count China’s jobless” [The Economist].
Black Injustice Tipping Point
“White Americans saw [Katrina] and its aftermath as a case of bad luck and unprecedented incompetence that spread its pain across the Gulf Coast regardless of race. This is the narrative you see in Landrieu’s words and, to some extent, Obama’s as well. To black Americans, however, this wasn’t an equal opportunity disaster. To them, it was confirmation of America’s indifference to black life” [Salon].
“But even people who talk about a renaissance speak in the same breath about those who didn’t recover. The ‘New’ New Orleans is whiter and more expensive to live in. African-American neighborhoods across the city still struggle, especially the chronically neglected Lower 9th Ward, a bastion of black home ownership before the floodwalls failed. And the murder rate is rising again” [AP].
“Black pitmasters left out of US barbecue boom” [BBC (TG)]
Farewell to Lori Wallach [Eyes on Trade]. The TPP pot definitely coming off the front burner.
“Who says love don’t cost a thing? Jewellery store unveils SOLID GOLD underwear for Chinese Valentine’s Day valued at £400,000” [Daily Mail].
“The high price of turning your dog into a foodie” [Reuters]. “The brand Tiki Dog, for instance, offers wild-caught ahi tuna with sweet potato, crab, egg, garlic and kale. Merrick’s “French Country Cafe” recipe features a blend of duck, carrots, Yukon Gold potatoes and garden peas.”
“City trader fined for punching man in Margaret Thatcher-themed club in Fulham” [Evening Standard].
Unionizing Politico? [New York Magazine].
“So the language of levels of the social appears to be legitimate after all. It gives us a conceptual vocabulary that captures composition and complexity, and it allows us to identify important social causal powers that would not be accessible to us on the flat ontology” [Understanding Society].
News of the Wired
“As a society, what we most want to ensure is that the artists can prosper — not the record labels or studios or publishing conglomerates, but the writers, musicians, directors and actors themselves” [New York Times]. “Writers, performers, directors and even musicians report their economic fortunes to be similar to those of their counterparts 15 years ago, and in many cases they have improved. Against all odds, the voices of the artists seem to be louder than ever.”
“Becker points out that in the Middle Ages, there were religious mandates against excessive greed. Avarice was considered a mortal sin. In the 20th century, we raised it to a moral virtue. That’s turned the earth into a smouldering heap of disposable plastic bottles” [Five Books].
Almost all of the world’s 60 million poor people living in rural LECZs [Low Elevation Coastal Zones] reside in just 15 countries: India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Cambodia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Iraq, Mozambique, Senegal, Brazil, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand” [Nature]. “Finally, the most vulnerable populations may need to be encouraged to migrate to non-coastal areas. Schemes such as voluntary property acquisition or assisted relocation may be required, as was recommended by the Louisiana master plan.”
“Researchers sample enormous oceanic trash vortex ahead of clean-up proposal” [Reuters].
Readers, feel free to contact me with (a) links, and even better (b) sources I should curate regularly, and (c) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi are deemed to be honorary plants! See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. And here’s today’s plant (AH):
AH: “An Egyptian frieze — if these lilies were lotuses.”
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