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2:00PM Water Cooler 10/11/2022

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Bird Song of the Day

White-breasted Nuthatch (Interior West), Antelope Valley, Sierra, California, United States. Long and restful, in the legacy of Robert J. Lurtsema.

* * *

Politics

“But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“Here’s food for thought, had Ahab time to think; but Ahab never thinks; he only feels, feels, feels” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick

“The logic of the insult and the logic of scientific classification represent the two extreme poles of what a classification may be in the social world.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

“White House unveils application form for Biden’s student debt relief” [Politico]. • Rolling out an application form is the most liberal Democrat thing EVAH.

2022

* * *

“Both parties brace for October surprises” [The Hill]. “Strategists and political observers on both sides of the aisle are bracing for a dreaded October surprise in the final month before Election Day, wary of anything that could upend the political landscape and reshape the outcome of an already volatile midterm cycle…. There’s also some debate about just how meaningful October surprises still are. For one, the political environment is far more polarized and there are fewer swing voters who could be swayed by last-minute revelations about a candidate or major event. What’s more, Greenberg said, news tends to come and go much faster in 2022 than it did even 20 years ago. What happens in early October, for instance, may not be top of mind for voters a month later. ‘It’s a cliché to say that a week is a lifetime in politics, but there’s always time for one more turn of the wheel,’ he said. ‘Since 1980 when the term was coined, a month has come to seem like a longer span of time. So maybe it should be a late-October surprise.'” • I don’t think we’ve got enough time to supply Big Z with rockets that can hit Moscow, or train the crews. So a Churcilllian moment for Biden, and a “rally round the flag” moment domestically, are out. Unless we fire the rockets ourselves, of course. If we do, Tim Ryan — the next Machin, because the current Manchin is about used up — might win Ohio! (See below.)

OH: “4 takeaways from first Ohio Senate debate between Tim Ryan, J.D. Vance” [Columbus Dispatch]. “When asked how the U.S. should respond if Russian President Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine, Vance said ‘nobody knows’ what the best course of action would be. He went on to argue that foreign policy should put Americans first, and he believes the Biden administration hasn’t done enough to deescalate the conflict. Ryan called for a ‘swift and significant response’ if that occurs and argued Vance is weak on Russia. The congressman also criticized his opponent for saying he doesn’t ‘really care what happens to Ukraine.’ ‘I’ve been to Parma,’ said Ryan, referring to the Cleveland suburb with a large Ukrainian-American population. ‘I’ve been to Cleveland. I’ve met with the refugees. You know who I meet with? The women and the daughters and sons because the husbands are in Ukraine fighting [with the Azovs?]. That’s the kind of freedom we need to support, and J.D. Vance would let Putin roll right through Ukraine.'” • Why, the next Christia Freedland or Tony Blinken could be growing up in Parma right now!

2024

“Biden’s about to turn 80. Don’t expect a blowout birthday bash” [Politico]. “Aides both inside and outside the White House have taken steps to prepare for another campaign. They’ve suggested that a campaign kickoff would likely come in the first few months of 2023, which would be commensurate to when other presidents signaled their re-election plans. Those closest to the president say that family discussions about running, with first lady Jill Biden playing a leading role, could begin over the holidays with a final decision likely coming early in the new year. Some Democrats have quietly wondered if Biden is too old to run again but many close to the president suspect that he will — especially if Donald Trump does.”

Democrats en Déshabillé

Patient readers, it seems that people are actually reading the back-dated post! But I have not updated it, and there are many updates. So I will have to do that. –lambert

I have moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Party (“the Democrat Party is a rotting corpse that can’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated post, to which I will periodically add material, summarizing the addition here in a “live” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It turns out that defining the Democrat Party is, in fact, a hard problem. I do think the paragraph that follows is on point all the way back to 2016, if not before:

The Democrat Party is the political expression of the class power of PMC, their base (lucidly explained by Thomas Frank in Listen, Liberal!). It follows that the Democrat Party is as “unreformable” as the PMC is unreformable; if the Democrat Party did not exist, the PMC would have to invent it. If the Democrat Party fails to govern, that’s because the PMC lacks the capability to govern. (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” of course.) Second, all the working parts of the Party reinforce each other. Leave aside characterizing the relationships between elements of the Party (ka-ching, but not entirely) those elements comprise a network — a Flex Net? An iron octagon? — of funders, vendors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with assets in the press and the intelligence community.

Note, of course, that the class power of the PMC both expresses and is limited by other classes; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial model’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to mind. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“Los Angeles reels from racist recording” [Politico]. Best of all, they’re all Democrats. “The overt racism on the tape drew the loudest condemnations, as you would expect after hearing an elected official mock and caricature a small child as a ‘parece changuito‘ (like a monkey) who deserves a ‘beatdown’ and is used like an ‘accessory.’ But the recording also illuminated, in the starkest way, how control of political representation is wielded like a blunt instrument to reward allies, punish foes and preserve or expand power. The officials talk about how to distribute economic ‘assets’ to ‘Latino districts.’ They mused about drawing a colleague’s district to dilute the power of renters and thus undercut the incumbent — putting her district ‘in a blender.’ Herrera emphasizes the need to ‘massage to create districts that benefit you all.’ The conversation also veered into ethnic fractures, underscoring some ugly realities in a city whose overwhelmingly Democratic government encompasses a multitude of subgroups. Martinez and de León talk about how District Attorney George Gascon was ‘for the Blacks’ and about white council members ignoring Latinos or being willing to ‘motherfuck you in a heartbeat.’ Martinez warns Black people could ‘come after us’ in an act of political reprisal. Campaigns and governance can turn on coalition-building, but politics can also become a zero-sum game in disputes about representation and resources. Racism is not new in Los Angeles, whose proud diversity coexists with a history of discrimination and where the confluence of a booming Latino population and a diminishing Black population has fueled political tension.” • A big, beautiful tent, and above all, Democrats are totally committed to Diversity, Inclusion, and Equity!

Obama Legacy

“Democrats won’t get as much Obama as they want in the midterms. But he has some other plans” [CNN]. “Democratic operatives say they’re eager to see Obama play an active role – even now, they say, his best role is driving up crucial Black voter turnout in places like Philadelphia and Detroit – even as they note his appeal is shifting. Among the disinterested voter blocs are a rising generation too young to remember his 2008 win, those who argue that his failure to deliver on soaring promises helped set up the crisis of faith and political despair that has followed and those who have gotten tired of seeing how little he’s engaged.” Ouch! More: “No matter how the midterms go, the former President will host what he’s calling a Democracy Forum two weeks after Election Day – the first event that he’s hoping to turn into an annual gathering, reflecting a recalibration of the Obama Foundation to focus on democracy in America and around the world. ‘We’ll explore a range of issues – from strengthening institutions and fighting disinformation, to promoting inclusive capitalism and expanded pluralism – that will shape democracies for generations to come,’ Obama writes in an announcement of the event going out to donors and others involved with the foundation, first obtained by CNN. ‘We’ll showcase democracy in action around the world, and approaches that are working. And we’ll discuss and debate ideas for how we can adapt our democracies and our institutions for a new age.'” • Oh. A foundation.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Voting systems reliable, despite conspiracies” [Associated Press]. “Conspiracy theories spread online and in forums across the country nevertheless have undermined public confidence in voting machines and election results, while leading some counties to consider ditching the equipment in favor of hand-marked and hand-counted ballots.” • Which would be a happy outcome, regardless of the process by which it was arrived at. Personally, I don’t think election 2020 was stolen, any more than election 2016 was (although in that case, the Clinton forces were overconfident, as Democrats were not in Iowa 2020). Incidentally, if you believe with Akerlof and Shiller that (to brutally summarize) “If fraud in a system is possible, it will already have occurred” (which it is, see here) than the CTers are right from the 30,000-foot level, if not at level of individual elections. The stakes are simply too great.

I should probably put his in “The Gallery,” but it seems like a good metaphor for the political situation:

#COVID19

Patient readers: Friday I reconfigured the Covid-19 section. Since CDC will now make case data available only weekly, that data will become entirely useless for early warning purposes, instead of only partially useless, so I eliminated that section entirely. I will retain CDC’s wastewater chart (still daily), and Walgreen’s positivity chart (still daily). For transmission, CDC also made Rapid Riser and Hospitalization weekly, so I have eliminated them, too. I will retain the CDC community transmission map (“the red map”), the CDC and Walgreens variant data, and the death rate (for as long as CDC supports them).

The net result is that the best early warning system for an oncoming surge will be wastewater, which has (a) spotty national coverage and (b) is routed through CDC with no check (except for the Biobot regional chart, which I gave up on because of its constant backward revisions). All this is a recipe for tragedy, especially when we consider that the only system that CDC explicitly built for early warning was the horrid and deceptive “community levels” metric (“the green map”), which by incorporating a lagging indicator (hospitalization), didn’t provide early warning at all.

I will continue to aggregate Tweets, as before; modulo censorship, the Twitter may end up being the best early warning system we have. Meanwhile, if some experts are correct, we should get whatever the UK is having in a month or so. But maybe not! If we still seem to be on a plateau after Thanksgiving travel, I will reconfigure again, back to more emphasis on the economy (because I have sorely neglected business news).

• Hat tip, CDC:

A less polite version of “many fewer infectious people would likely be out” is “many more people would still be alive.” Here is the study Topol mentions–

“COVID-19 Symptoms and Duration of Rapid Antigen Test Positivity at a Community Testing and Surveillance Site During Pre-Delta, Delta, and Omicron BA.1 Periods” [JAMA]. n = 63, 277. Conclusions and Relevance: “In this cross-sectional study, COVID-19 upper respiratory tract symptoms were more commonly reported during the Omicron BA.1 period than during the pre-Delta and Delta periods, with differences by vaccination status. Rapid antigen test positivity remained high 5 days after symptom onset, supporting guidelines requiring a negative test to inform the length of the isolation period.”

* * *

• “Excess deaths, swarms of variants, neurological Long COVID: another normal week in COVIDland” [CO2 Radical]. This is a very good Australian weekly newsletter. “In Australia, the COVID-19 Mortality Working Group of the Actuaries Institute published its latest analysis of excess death rates (that’s deaths greater than predicted, based on data from past years) from January to June 2022. These are running at 13% (11,200), with the total excess deaths in June itself at 16% (2,400). About half of these are due directly to COVID and the rest are from other causes. Professor Brendan Crabb of the Burnet Institute estimates 20-25,000 excess deaths in Australia this year…. The Actuaries Institute believes COVID itself will be the third leading cause of death in 2022. Slow handclap to the new Australian government. 👏👏👏…. There’s been nothing in the print or broadcast media about this and if anyone has a satisfactory explanation as to why the Australian media has ignored these stunning excess death findings completely, I will be grateful to receive it.” • I follow a lot of Australian accounts, and they’re really ticked off, rightly; Australia was doing well until Scotty from Marketing and Gladys decided to infect the rest of the country for money.

* * *

* * *

Lambert here: I have moved the Wasterwater section; it fails to load, or has not been updated, too often to be first. Hats off to CDC, the world’s best public health agency.

Transmission

Here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to community transmission. (This is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you.)

Lambert here: I have to say, I’m seeing more yellow and more blue, which continues to please. But is the pandemic “over”? Well….

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s test positivity tracker, October 8:

<

-0.9%.

Readers, please click through on this, if you have a minute. Since Walgreens did the right thing, let’s give this project some stats.

Wastewater

NOT UPDATED Wastewater data (CDC), October 4:

October 3:

An alert reader suggested taking a look at the MWRA data from the Boston area, and lo and behold:

Lambert here: Still stalled. So far, I don’t think we have a signal of winter’s onslaught.

This is a seven-day average, mind you, so the rise is no fluke. (MRWA is divided into north and south sewersheds. Both are rising.) Let us also remember that the Boston area is not only the home of many, many students, it’s also a PMC center, and we have already seen one ginormous superspreader event from the conference in Boston. Boston also has a major international airport, another cause of spread.

Variants

Lambert here: It’s beyond frustrating how slow the variant data is. I looked for more charts: California doesn’t to a BA.4/BA.5 breakdown. New York does but it, too, is on a molasses-like two-week cycle. Does nobody in the public health establishment get a promotion for tracking variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and everybody gets the results from them? Additional sources from readers welcome [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk].

Variant data, national (Walgreens), September 24:

First appearance of BA.2.75 at Walgreens, confirming CDC data below.

UPDATED Variant data, national (CDC), September 17 (Nowcast off):

Deaths

Death rate (Our World in Data):

Total: 1,087,976 – 1,087,880 = 96 (530 * 96 = 50,880, which is today’s LivingWith™* number (quite a bit higher than the minimizers would like, though they can talk themselves into anything. Fluctuates quite a bit, but even the low numbers are bad). I have added an anti-triumphalist black Fauci Line. NOTE I may need to configure this as well. But I have reconfigured enough for one day.

It’s nice that for deaths I have a simple, daily chart that just keeps chugging along, unlike everything else CDC and the White House are screwing up or letting go dark, good job.

Stats Watch

* * *

Retail: “PC Shipments Plunge Nearly 20%, Steepest Drop in More Than 20 Years” [Wall Street Journal]. “Worldwide shipments in the third quarter dropped 19.5% from a year ago, marking the steepest decline in more than two decades, according to data from research firm Gartner Inc. Computer makers shipped 68 million PCs in the recent quarter, down from 84.5 million units the year prior…. The sector benefited during the pandemic from a boom in electronic sales as households and businesses bought PCs to adjust to working from home and remote schooling. But those big purchases are hard for consumers to replicate so soon, especially as inflation curbs spending amid other macroeconomic conditions.”

Shipping: “Choked-Up Yards and Trailer Shortages Box In America’s Truckers” [Wall Street Journal]. “The miles on the road and hours spent waiting to switch containers between trucks and trailers are how the supply-chain congestion that has rattled the American economy looks on the ground, where tens of thousands of shipments converge each day in a Chicago region that forms one of the country’s most vital, and most crowded, freight hubs. The goods arrive on trains more than a mile long stacked two-high with shipping containers, most of them brought in from Asia by container ships through West Coast ports that have been backed up by a flood of imports over the past two years. The surge in goods has been driven by the consumer buying binge that started early in the pandemic and left retailers such as Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. scrambling to get goods across the Pacific Ocean and into stores. That rush has dissipated as consumer shopping has shifted this year, with more spending going to travel and other services, and the shipping volumes have started receding at seaports. But the furniture, apparel, athletic equipment and other consumer goods rushed into the market are still in distribution pipelines as bottlenecks continue to ripple across the inland landscape. The backups at warehouses and freight yards in the densely packed Chicago region have broken the fragile balance between the flow of goods and the movement of the trucks, containers and trailers that undergird the freight economy.” • Another way of saying this is that the truckers and the railroad workers have “the economy” by the throat, if only they could exercise their power collectively.

Finance:

The Bezzle: “Celsius Says Execs Withdrew Millions Before Bankruptcy, Court Filings Show” [Bloomberg]. “Top executives at Celsius Network LLC withdrew millions of dollars worth of cryptocurrencies in the month before suspending customer withdrawals from the platform, according to bankruptcy court documents filed by lawyers for the crypto lender in New York late Wednesday.” • Huh.

The Bezzle:

Lol. “Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!”

Manufacturing: “America’s manufacturing rebound is facing surprising headwinds from the U.S. dollar. The strengthening currency is making foreign-made goods cheaper to import… handing overseas producers an advantage in selling into the U.S. while American-made exports grow more expensive abroad” [Wall Street Journal]. “Sales in foreign currencies by U.S. manufacturers operating overseas factories also are worth less because of the unfavorable exchange rates caused by the strengthening dollar. The dollar’s surge against the euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound and other currencies adds a new wrinkle to the reshoring drive that has seen some U.S. companies look for domestic alternatives because of unreliable overseas supply chains and rising shipping costs. Still, the currency shift is helping some U.S. importers of manufacturing components. Wisconsin-based manufacturer Generac Holdings says it is finding better prices for parts that are helping “offset higher logistics costs we’re paying.” • Manufacturing still the handmaiden of financialization?

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 20 Extreme Fear (previous close: 20 Extreme Fear) [CNN]. One week ago: 30 (Fear). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Oct 6 at 12:59 PM EDT.

Rapture Index: Closes up one on Oil Supply/Price. “Oil has risen above $90 per barrel” [Rapture Ready]. Record High, October 10, 2016: 189. Current: 188. (Remember that bringing on the Rapture is good.)

Health Care

“As Hospitals Close Children’s Units, Where Does That Leave Lachlan?” [New York Times]. There is, of course, a picture of Lachlan, who is adorbs. Despite that: “Hospitals around the country, from regional medical centers to smaller local facilities are closing down pediatric units. The reason is stark economics: Institutions make more money from adult patients. In April, Henrico Doctors’ Hospital in Richmond, Va., ended its pediatric inpatient services. In July, Tufts Children’s Hospital in Boston followed suit. Shriners Children’s New England said it will close its inpatient unit by the end of the year. Pediatric units in Colorado Springs, Raleigh, N.C., and Doylestown, Pa., have closed as well. ‘They’re asking: Should we take care of kids we don’t make any money off of, or use the bed for an adult who needs a bunch of expensive tests?’ said Dr. Daniel Rauch, chief of pediatric hospital medicine for Tufts Medicine, who headed its general pediatric unit until it closed over the summer. ‘If you’re a hospital, that’s a no-brainer.'” • So tell me: Why are we giving hospitals any control over health care policy at all? Unless, of course, you’re a eugenicist who believes that only fit children should survive.

The Gallery

Quite a pairing:

Twitter comes through on the “Show Conversation” front!

Book Nook

“Woman on the Edge of Time” [Marge Piercy]. • Linking to this because I think everybody should read it (preferably by ordering it at a bookstore). Best *topian novel ever. Also a real pageturner. even in the explication parts! I read this in the 70s, when feminism was a serious thing instead of an aspect of the successor ideology, and I’ve never forgotten it.

“Woman on the Edge of Time Introduction” [Schmoop]. • I’m linking to this as a reveal that I enjoy Schmoop. Under the jaunty veneer of a very informal style, Schmoop does good close readings and offers lots of plotting tools. Also, I cried too when Jackrabbit died (or rather, when Luciente found out Jackrabbit is died. “Person is dead!” Yes, Pierce also has a rational take on the frigging pronouns problem). I can’t imagine how a writer does this. But they do.

Class Warfare

“Large rail union rejects deal, renewing strike possibility” [Associated Press]. “The U.S.’s third largest railroad union rejected a deal with employers Monday, renewing the possibility of a strike that could cripple the economy. B oth sides will return to the bargaining table before that happens. Over half of track maintenance workers represented by the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes Division who voted opposed the five-year contract despite 24% raises and $5,000 in bonuses. Union President Tony Cardwell said the railroads didn’t do enough to address the lack of paid time off — particularly sick time — and working conditions after the major railroads eliminated nearly one-third of their jobs over the past six years. ‘Railroaders are discouraged and upset with working conditions and compensation and hold their employer in low regard. Railroaders do not feel valued,’ Cardwell said in a statement. ‘They resent the fact that management holds no regard for their quality of life, illustrated by their stubborn reluctance to provide a higher quantity of paid time off, especially for sickness.’ The group that represents the railroads in negotiations said they were disappointed the union rejected the agreement, but emphasized that no immediate threat of a strike exists because the union [that is, the Union’s management] agreed to keep working for now.” •

News of the Wired

“Spanish airline reserves 10 Airlander airships from Bedford-based firm” [BBC]. From June, still germane. “Hybrid Air Vehicles (HAV) said European-based Air Nostrum Group had reserved 10 Airlander airships for delivery from 2026…. The airships, which stay aloft using helium and electricity, have been commissioned to seat 100 people. According to HAV’s website, hybrid aircraft fly due to a combination of aerodynamic lift (like an aeroplane), lifting gases (like an airship) and vectored thrust (similar to a helicopter). Airlander generates up to 40% of its lift from aerodynamics by the passage of air over the hull and the remainder from buoyant lift from the helium.” • Pretty neat!

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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From EMM:

EMM writes: “Hello again, this is a Holly Tree that is growing out of a cliff in Ireland. It’s growing pretty high up in an exposed place. A really great tree”

* * *

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

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84 comments

      1. ambrit

        Commenteriat: “How long have you had this Water Cooler?”
        Moderator: “Oh, three or four centons.”
        Lambert: “It’s for sale if you want it.”
        Commenteriat: “Let’s see your codes.”
        Lambert, swirls hand. Sotto voce: “You don’t need to see their codes.”
        Commenteriat: “We don’t need to see their codes.”
        Lambert, also sotto voce: “This isn’t the Water Cooler you are looking for.” Waves hand.
        Commenteriat: “This isn’t the Water Cooler we are looking for.”
        Lambert, sotto voce: “They can go about their business.”
        Commenteriat: “They can go about their business.”
        Lambert, sotto voce: “Move along.”
        Commenteriat: “Move along. Move along.”

        Mr. Subliminal showing just what he’s capable of.

  5. fresno dan

    I don’t know if its me, but today’s post seems very familiar – kinda like this seems like deja vu all over again…

    1. John

      Lambert may not be faster than a speeding bullet but his correction was faster than the next six comments. Bravo.

  6. Angie Neer

    EMM, thanks for the plant and the beautiful glimpse of Ireland. I’m always drawn to “survivor” plants in rugged environments.

    1. andy

      When I was in Ireland I asked some questions about landscapes such as this and found out they were lush forests until the English arrrived and needed the timber for the Royal Navy.

    1. emd

      For sure, but a very insecure person outside academia. I spoke with him briefly at a luncheon in midtown honoring one of our old professors from technical college – totally clueless on how things really work, as was the table of professors where I sat.

    2. Skip Intro

      Hopefully they are just using He to pitch to initial suckers investors, then they will switch to hydrogen generated by solar panels on the wings, driving fuel cells for propulsion…

  9. hunkerdown

    > there are fewer swing voters who could be swayed by last-minute revelations about a candidate or major event

    Perhaps because they voted dutifully for their party by mail, averting “their” voters’ susceptibility to an October surprise production.

    1. Fiery Hunt

      Yes sir…nailed it.
      Early voting is absolutely about party loyalty and NOT about an informed electorate.

      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        Thank you. I forget when all the stories started to appear about how excellent and righteous “early voting” was. Suddenly, there the stories were. I think midterms 2018, I’m not sure. Totally inorganic, and as you point out, not about an informed electorate.

        “I know my tribe. Why would I need to wait until Election Day?”

  10. digi_owl

    Yeah the PC market is bonkers. The upcoming high end desktop GPU from Nvidia can pull as much as a space heater.

    And it feels like on the laptop side certain stats, like RAM and SSD capacities, have not budged in a decade.

    And still you need to slap 1000+ buck on the table if you do not want something with internals 2 generations behind.

    And that is if you can find anything at all. AMD announced new laptop CPUs back in January, but good luck finding much of anything out there.

    1. cfraenkel

      Only at the very high end, yearly upgrade, spec envy end. Unless you’re playing cutting edge games, or doing serious work (ie video editing, or compiling massive codebases – in which case someone else should be fronting the cap ex), a 10+ year old machine is still more power than 99% of the population needs. 1/2 TB SSD will set you back $50 at best buy. Newegg has a Dell i5 16gb ram, 256gb SSD for $169!!! Granted Windows Bloat ™ will slow that down a bit (still usable though), but an up to date Linux is going to feel just as snappy on that machine as on your $1k+ beast.
      I’ve got a 10+ year old i5 as a daily driver + file server, and a 5 year old i7. Can’t tell the difference. (I keep the VMs running on the i7, I’m not dumb..)
      Sometimes you don’t have to join into the red queens race.

    2. Greg

      As a gamer, I’ve definitely been putting off PC upgrades for a range of reasons. Partly personal circumstances, but even when broke I’d usually do piecemeal upgrades until a big push for the motherboard/cpu/ram combo.
      For the last five years, there’s been no reason to upgrade CPU. Performance difference is minimal for everything except supercomputing tasks, which I don’t need to do at home.

      Crypto put GPUs out of reach, and traditionally a GPU is what I’d be replacing twice as often as the PC itself. Can’t possibly afford to pay four times the price to get a reasonable performance increase, so instead I’m just managing resolution and frame rate.

      RAM prices are all over the place but occasionally reasonable. But I’m stuck on an old motherboard until I can replace the CPU, so I make do. That’s pretty much the only thing I feel the lack of (stuck on 8gb of DDR3).

      1. Jason Boxman

        I’m so behind i play ten year old games. Fallout New Vegas and Mass Effect play great on old 4GB i3 series with GTX 970 or whatever i have. Even XCOM 2 from 2015 played okay. Recently dusted off Battlefield 2, oops. Looks like about 500 still play on pubs worldwide ha.

    3. chris

      I have to say I really enjoy the steam deck. It plays very well and the form factor is amazing for trips. Especially that newly awkward space they’ve created on airplanes.

  11. Screwball

    Vance vs. Ryan in Ohio. I haven’t followed the polls, but I was around the Columbus area on Sunday from my home in NW Ohio. If yard signs are a sign, Vance must have at least a fighting chance because I saw many more of them than I did Ryan. But I expect the large cities are Ryan fans.

    I’m no Vance fan, nor Trump, nor Ryan for that matter, but there is no way I’m voting for any democrat. I’m with Tulsi – screw these war mongering people and their arrogant attitude toward so many people. I’m tired of being called a stupid mouth-breathing red neck hick over the last 6 years because I live in rural Ohio who voted for Trump (even though I didn’t).

    I truly hope they get smoked, and smoked bad. There, I said it.

    And Obama, like Hillary, can just go the *family blog” away already.

    1. Wukchumni

      When the Donkey Show started charging everyone for admission, the thrill was gone.

      Some January Sixer got 4 or 5 years for smoking a fatty in the Capitol building…

      1. John

        Back around 1960 I was an enrolled Republican because that was what I grew up with and, believe me, today’s Republican party would banish most of its then members as rank heretics. Never been a party member since. Tulsi is doing the right thing. The Party simply moved away from her. I thought she was the one candidate who made sense in 2020. But the powers that be who installed Biden were adamantly opposed to my preferred ticket, Sanders – Gabbard, and she was on the VP line because I decided her youth would make her a tough sell. She does not fit into either party as presently constituted and in that she has a great deal of company.

        We need a party to challenge the uni-party.

        1. Perry

          “Los Angeles reels from racist recording”

          After reading that, and having experienced the hypocrisy of Marin County officials backstabbing each other to try and steer the Latino vote in spite of mocking them, i.e. The Board of Supervisors President, it appears that the Populist Republican Party might be due for a potential comeback. Stress, the Populist, not the moronic pro-war, all of Fox, [except for Tucker Carlson], Lindsey Graham, Adam Kinzinger, No Fly Zones in Ukraine! wing of the regular Republican Party.

          Here’s an ideal ticket: DeSantis/Gabbard, both mid rank veterans that saw combat, elected officials, young, smart, attractive and very articulate. Trump? Nah, he’s nothing but trouble. He’s not that much younger than Biden either.

          1. anon in so cal

            >LA City Council: Confess I am not keeping up with this particular issue. Simply too much to read. Will say, though, that my council member parachuted in from the northeast, unseated a very responsive and helpful city council member, and shortly thereafter proceeded to try to weaken local zoning laws. Planning and building and safety are bad enough without further attacking what little constraints remain and further empowering developers. There was an unsuccessful attempt to recall this person. Too difficult to get signatures during the pandemic.

            >White-breasted Nuthatch: These are a “confiding species” and will take a sunflower seed out of your hand if they get used to your presence.

          2. Lambert Strether Post author

            > DeSantis

            DeSantis reminds me of Corbell Pickett in Gibson’s The Peripheral; a vicious smalltown automobile dealer (American gentry). His face is too tight, I assume with anger (which will come out one way or another in a long primary season).

            Still thinking in terms of personalities, I think there’s a space for a genial candidate who could get people to calm the [family blog] down and get to work. The 80% of the voters who are not PMC or oligarchs are under a lot of stress; I think candidates like DeSantis would amp the stress up.

            I agree that in normal times, fear and hatred are good drivers, as they are in any team sport. Perhaps a candidate who can move beyond that would find acceptance.

            1. Steve H.

              > a vicious smalltown automobile dealer (American gentry).

              Wiki: DeSantis graduated from Yale in 2001 with a B.A. magna cum laude…he attended Harvard Law School, graduating in 2005 with a Juris Doctor cum laude… working directly with detainees at the Guantanamo Bay Joint Detention Facility.

              And that’s just what has been properly vetted. The worst possible ticket is deSantis/Pompeo. Extremely smart and yes, extremely vicious.

        2. Tom Stone

          I registered Republican when I turned 18 because I knew it would upset my Father, he turned purple and foamed at the mouth when I told him.
          It was wonderful.
          It’s been NPP since except when I re registered Dem to vote for Bernie in the primary.
          I may vote for a Dem at the City or County level, at the State or Federal level No.
          Hell No.

        3. Bob White

          “Tulsi is doing the right thing.”

          I think that depends on where she goes… if she joins the other side of the uni-party (R) with the other warmongers, then I would say she did a lateral move. I have not heard what her plans are in that regard. Hopefully, she ends up in a third party. Not holding my breath…

          1. Lambert Strether Post author

            > “Tulsi is doing the right thing.”

            No. Tulsi is saying the right thing. The politics are so degraded right now that even saying some vaguely sensible is arguably performative; but it’s really not.

      2. Carolinian

        Howabout a Tulsi/DeSantis ticket and then leave off the DeSantis. Tulsi is certainly not perfect but sanity wise it would be a change of pace.

        2. Screwball

          That’s kind of my main point, just to clarify. I don’t know what to think of Tulsi, but I can’t find anything in her statement to disagree with.

          It probably doesn’t matter who wins, a $hit sandwich will always be a $hit sandwich, but at least she brought valid points into the narrative. Small win.

          I don’t see any good ticket, but I think a DeSantis/Gabbard ticket would be a winner in 2024.

          Disclosure; not that I am endorsing.

    3. Nikkikat

      Thanks for your comment Screwball, fits my feelings exactly! I would add to your remarks regarding Democrats and their arrogance and warmongering……authoritarians all.

    4. notabanker

      From my perspective, that was a terrible representation of what actually happened in that debate. Ryan was asked first and said he thought it needed to be “an aggressive response”….. “we should be prepared for all contingencies ….. and it should be swift and aggressive response”

      They asked Ryan and he said “The answer is nobody knows how we should respond is Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine” He then went on to point out that the same bi-partisan foreign policy regime put us in wars with Iraq and Afghanistan and then asked Ryan if is his “strong” response meant getting into a nuclear shootout with Russia. He advocated doing everything we can to de-escalate the situation and pointed out he has 3 children and that the Biden administration is sleepwalking into a nuclear war, which is the wworst possible thing that could happen.

      Ryan then doubled down and said if Vance had his way Putin would already be through Ukraine and into Poland.

      See for yourself the actual responses:
      https://youtu.be/iBV088B1sfM?t=1254

      Vance won my vote on this response alone. Ryan is just another corporate democrat.

  12. fresno dan

    https://hotair.com/karen-townsend/2022/10/11/carville-focusing-only-on-abortion-isnt-working-for-democrats-n502362
    Democrats are counting on the Supreme Court’s decision on the Dobbs case to win over voters, protecting them from the predicted red wave. Carville noted that the strategy of using a single issue as the reason voters should vote for Democrats is not working out so well. It turns out that the white hot outrage of pro-abortion voters may have peaked too early and abortion isn’t even in the top three issues for voters in most polls. The top issues are the ones that every person deals with – inflation, crime, and high energy prices.
    =======================================
    True enough about the other issues. But, what are democrats proposing TO DO about abortion? And what didn’t they do that in the last 40 years? And really, isn’t that whole contrived bull$hit that a nominee can’t answer questions about how they would rule asinine? You are telling me that democrats, who apparently are so naive, that they can’t figure out republican supreme court nominees were primarily selected to overturn Wade, and yet the democrats couldn’t figure that out, OR DIDN’T WANT TO FIGURE IT OUT, should now be elected to defend abortion. Open. barn doors. horses…
    Democratic Senator: Republican Supreme court nominee, could you rule to find the 13th amendment unconstitutional???
    Republican Supreme court nominee: Gee, I would love to answer that question, but there could be a court case on that, so I can’t possibly give you any kind of clue about how I would rule.
    Democratic Senator: Well, in that case, I just HAVE TO VOTE TO CONFIRM you, because I don’t see how any would could draw the conclusion that you would be hostile to the 13th amendment…
    democrats – elect us because we are sooooo ineffective at doing what you want…and can’t figure out how to be effective!!!

    1. DGL

      Best summation ever of the past three years:
      “Here’s a roundup of another eventful week in the rolling car crash that we laughingly call the Western world’s “response” to the COVID pandemic.”

    2. Tom Stone

      1973 for Roe Vs Wade.
      I was 20 years old and the Dems promised to codify the Supreme Court’s decision real soon.
      And have repeatedly promised to Codify a Womans Right to choose since.
      The titular head of the Hegemon, Joe Biden, is among those tireless fighters for Women’s Rights to have made that promise.
      $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
      It was a sweet, sweet cash cow for 49 years, nigh as long as the “Big Guy” has been in DC.
      I’m sure that the Dem’s will continue “Fighting Hard for Women’s Rights” wherever that will raise the most cash…

  13. Wukchumni

    Then: ‘The Missiles of October’

    Now: ‘The Missives of October’

    My mom told me that about 60 years ago to the day, that she and every other housewife cleaned out the local supermarkets of every canned and bottled food in entirety, and then when the coast was clear, most everybody returned everything for a refund.

    1. Mark Gisleson

      Years later Dad would still bring up the occasional can of some kind of fruit juice from the basement/fallout shelter. We’d shake it up but it was still cloudy water with orange flecks floating in it that tasted more like Tang on a bad day than orange juice. But so long as the rust was only on the outside of the can, it was still good!

  14. flora

    re: A big, beautiful tent, and above all, Democrats are totally committed to Diversity, Inclusion, and Equity!

    Dry, very dry. / ;)

    adding: Two Women Teaching a Child to Walk.

    One of my favorite Rembrant quick sketches. In a bare few lines everything is described.

    2. ambrit

      Rembrandt was a master of gesture. It’s a skill often not learned by even the best artists. Try doing a simple sketch without looking at the paper. Reminds me of Giotto’s calling card, a big perfect circle, drawn freehand.

  15. Mildred Montana

    Re: Obama Legacy

    Bloviates Obama: ‘We’ll explore a range of issues – from strengthening institutions and fighting disinformation, to promoting inclusive capitalism and expanded pluralism – that will shape democracies for generations to come,’

    Obama should just stop talking and quietly retire to Martha’s Vineyard. His hot air is contributing to global warming. Experienced readers will note his reliance on abstract nouns and adjectives such as “institutions”, “disinformation”, “inclusive”, “pluralism”. It’s all just Barack 2008, Barack redux, Barack ad nauseum.

    When it comes to “disinformation” however, I must, reluctantly, defer to him. Who am I to question? He is a master of that art.

    1. flora

      Obama promoting “inclusive capitalism”? well well. Sounds so virtuous, right? Except “inclusive capitalism” is the latest rebranding of New World Order > Great Reset > Inclusive Capitalism. The same old play in a new suit of clothes. It’s hard to find articles about this because the rebranding is fairly recent. This is one I found. (Don’t mistake its entry point as a religious critique. It’s not about religion but about something else, a new rebranding which is drawing in the unwitting, imo.)

      The Great Reset, the Vatican, and “Inclusive Capitalism”
      Posted onDec 15, 2020

      https://billmuehlenberg.com/2020/12/15/the-great-reset-the-vatican-and-inclusive-capitalism/

      Back to my original point: Obama lauding “inclusive capitalism” without providing more than the warm-fuzzy sounding brand name sounds like a standard political ploy. My 2 cents.

    2. semper loquitur

      What a powerful wizard this Barrack of Obama must be! “Inclusive capitalism”! Wonders of wonders!

      A intrinsically exclusionary beast that raises everyone to the same heights! A creature of infinite voracity that shares it’s spoils with all! Truly we inhabit an age of marvels, a time of chimeras and cockatrices!

  16. chris

    I don’t know if this got posted today or earlier, but the Guardian is reporting that Ms. Tulsi Gabbard has officially left the Democrat party. I’d bet that doesn’t surprise anyone here. Not sure it will have anything to do with voting or polling or whatever this November. But it feels important to me that her ultimate critique of the Democrat party is coming from their left and yet she is welcome enough on the right to fill in for Tucker Carlson.

  18. jrh

    “autonomous dump-trucks that never leave a literal sandbox, and trundle back and forth on the same road all day, moving rocks from a pit to a crusher.”

    Conveyor belt maybe? WTF?

  19. Nordberg

    A big, beautiful tent, and above all, Democrats are totally committed to Diversity, Inclusion, and Equity!

    They are really only committed to yard signs saying as much.

  21. notabanker

    If the Railworkers Union was smart and representing the best interests of its membership, they would go on strike October 31. They will have a sweetheart deal by election day.

    I wonder what excuse they will use to delay post election day.

  22. The Rev Kev

    “Excess deaths, swarms of variants, neurological Long COVID: another normal week in COVIDland”

    ‘There’s been nothing in the print or broadcast media about this and if anyone has a satisfactory explanation as to why the Australian media has ignored these stunning excess death findings completely, I will be grateful to receive it.’

    The reason is simple. Because the media in Oz is as bad as the American media. Come to think of it, I believe that CBS purchased one of our major networks – Channel 10 – several years ago. So it is no longer a news media but a narrative delivery system. To my disgust, they have cheered on every relaxation of pandemic restrictions and for example, would show staff in shops being finally able to throw away their masks. Their personal frustration with not being able to go overseas on holidays was actually visible. And they have been also celebrating the arrival of ocean cruise liners like it was a cargo cult or something. They have become so bad the past several years that I would sooner get my news from CNN. For the media in Oz, it is all about the narratives now.

  23. fresno dan

    https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/11/politics/steele-dossier-fbi-durham-danchenko/index.html

    Shortly before the 2016 election, the FBI offered retired British spy Christopher Steele “up to $1 million” to prove the explosive allegations in his dossier about Donald Trump, a senior FBI analyst testified Tuesday.
    The cash offer was made during an overseas October 2016 meeting between Steele and several top FBI officials who were trying to corroborate Steele’s claims that the Trump campaign was colluding with Russia to win the election.
    FBI supervisory analyst Brian Auten testified that Steele never got the money because he could not “prove the allegations.”
    Auten also said Steele refused to provide the names of any of his sources during that meeting, and that Steele didn’t give the FBI anything during that meeting that corroborated the claims in his explosive dossier.
    ….
    Auten confirmed what has been known for many years: the probe was launched after the US government got intelligence from a friendly country that a Trump campaign aide had bragged to one of its diplomats that the Russians had offered to help Trump beat Hillary Clinton.
    ================================================
    The problem with the campaign aide as a justification for an impeachment and special prosecutor is that it is even thinner than the dossier. Unless one is suffering from TDS, it is apparent the whole thing was a sham from the very start.

    2. Lambert Strether Post author

      A million seems like rather a lot. I wonder (seriously) what line item this would have fit under. Informants, I suppose, but surely raising the bar for them?

  24. Jason Boxman

    From the other day, the worst hopium garbage: How Many Times Will You Get COVID?

    Aubree Gordon, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan, has been following hundreds of households in Nicaragua to understand COVID risks over time. Gordon’s work has shown that, on average, a first infection lowers the severity of a second, and a second of a third. But, for some, COVID continues to present meaningful health risks. “I’d hoped that one or two reinfections would get us to a place where COVID was something like other coronaviruses,” Gordon told me. “It looks like it will take longer. But I expect we’ll still get there.”

    I dunno, are any other endemic diseases that are ‘mild’? Just because the common coronaviruses aren’t a serious issue any longer, doesn’t mean this has a similar trajectory. It’s unknowable.

    Gordon believes that one day, SARS-CoV-2 will infect us far less frequently than it does now. She pointed to a paper published in Nature Medicine that examined how often people were infected by other coronaviruses.

    SARS-COV-2 isn’t one of those other coronaviruses.

    Gordon said. “My best guess would be—and this is just a guess—that symptomatic COVID infections will eventually occur every five years or so.” We could achieve this equilibrium within five years, and possibly sooner, she said. But that would still mean that many of us could get COVID ten times or more in our lifetimes.

    Let me know how that works out for you; I’ll wait.

  25. NotTimothyGeithner

    Netflix has a documentary on “The Redeem Team”, the 2008 US Men’s Olympic Basketball team. I’ve long thought this country suffers from a deep seated inferiority complex, and I don’t know if there is any episode more representative of this condition than finding redemption after not dominating in a sport we invented.

  26. Pat

    So anybody but me reading about his new foundation think that Obama is expecting a debacle in November and wants to be sure he isn’t a prominent fixture in the losing campaigns. But wants to be sure that he will still be the kingmaker for 2024.
    On that same note, I also think that Biden is already running for re-election. The question is whether those that carried his useless ass over the line in 2020 will agree to do so again or will tell him to bow out. That’s what will be decided in the new year.

    1. The Rev Kev

      ‘I also think that Biden is already running for re-election.’

      Should it be mentioned that old Joe will be celebrating his 80th birthday in only about five weeks time?

      1. Pat

        No more so then his frequent moments that at best could be called lack of focus. He is better stage managed now but it was really bad during the last campaign. If your elderly parent or grandparent acted like Joe does so often, you wouldn’t want them to be President.

        1. judy2shoes

          It’s amazing to me how many Democrats I know refuse to acknowledge that creepy Joe has dementia. Democrat hopium is a powerful drug it seems.

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