2:00PM Water Cooler 9/5/2024

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

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Readers, I have a post to finish, but today was eventful, and so I’m going to put up some items here, finish my post, and then return here and do some backfilling. Hopefully there’s enough here to get you going. If not, talk amongst yourselves! –lambert

Bird Song of the Day

Gray Catbird, Shindagin Hollow SF–Bald Hill School Rd., Tompkins, New York, United States. Four minutes of catbird!

* * *

In Case You Might Miss…

  1. Lichtman opines: It’s Kamala.
  2. RussiaGate II.
  3. Commercial real estate woes.
  4. Keith Haring.

* * *

Politics

“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

Trump Assassination Attempt

“Sen. Hawley: Most Of The Agents On The Trump Detail At Butler Rally Were Homeland Security, Trained By A Webinar” [RealClearPolitics]. • Reading between the lines, the case for LIHOP. Commentary:

Odd, that!

2024

Less than one hundred days to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages:

The good news for Trump is that Kamala’s post-convention “bounce” seems to have been slight. The good news for Kamala is Trump’s continued deterioration in North Carolina, plus taking a slight lead in Pennsylvania. Remember, however, that all the fluctuations — in fact, all the leads, top to bottom — are within the margin of error.

“Historian who accurately predicted 9 of last 10 presidential elections makes his 2024 pick” [USA Today]. “Allan Lichtman, the historian who correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the ten most recent presidential elections, has made his guess on who will reclaim the White House this year. Spoiler alert: it’s Vice President Kamala Harris. Lichtman said in a video, [clickbait] first reported by The New York Times, that he based his prediction on thirteen keys or ‘big picture true false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House Party.'” • See here for Lichtman’s prediction system, which goes all the way back to 1860. Here is the chart for this year:

More: “‘Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip,’ he said in the video. ‘The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House.'” • One wonders whether debacles in both Gaza and Ukraine would affect the results of Lichtman’s prediction sustem. Dunno about an incumbent seeking re-election. Isn’t that false?

“Is Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in the presidential race?” [Brookings Institution]. “Averages of multiple polls tend to minimize the impact of individual erroneous polls and locate the most probable course of public sentiment. There are two different ways of constructing averages of multiple polls. One is simple: take all the polls on a race (national or a specific state) and determine the average of the results they report for each candidate. The other is more complicated: use standards of quality based on the prior performance of individual polling organizations as well as the sample size and timing to determine the weight that a specific poll receives. In principle, polls conducted by organizations that have been accurate in the past, use large samples, and have been released recently will receive a greater weight than those that score lower on one or more of these dimensions. A well-known example of the first, simpler method is provided by RealClearPolitics (RCP); of the second, more complex method, by FiveThirtyEight (538).” • I like simple, dance with the one that brung ya for me: RCP. That said, I respect Silver as a pundit, but regard the math stuff as veneer; no different from OGs Larry Sabato and the Cook Report.

* * *

The Debate (September 10)

“Trump and Harris campaigns agree to rules for ABC debate” [NBC]. “The Sept. 10 event in Philadelphia will use the same rules and format as the June debate between Trump and President Joe Biden. Candidate microphones will be live only for the candidate whose turn it is to speak.” • This is good for Trump, who will not be tempted to interrupt his enemy when they’re making a mistake. And it’s bad for Kamala, because she does tend to blather on.

* * *

Kamala (D): One of these sentences is not like the other:

We have (to my mind) correctly “working class” and “middle class” in the first sentence. In the second sentence, “working class” has been forgotten (or erased). Typical!

Kamala (D): Who needs policy when you’ve got “joy”:

Kamala (D): “The Turnout Debate” [Robert Kuttner, The American Prospect]. “mobilizing low-propensity voters will indeed be key to a Democratic victory in 2024. We don’t yet know whether all the energy and enthusiasm on display at the convention will trickle down to motivating actual voters. We do know that, other things being equal, there is more of a potential upside among low-propensity Democratic voters than among their Republican counterparts. We also know that the excitement at the convention is a great motivator for the organizers who do the actual work of persuading people to register and then to vote. And we know that the Democratic grassroots registration and get-out-the-vote infrastructure is better than its MAGA counterpart. Of course, we won’t know what difference this will make in practice until much later in the fall, when we start to see more registration statistics and when we get reports on vote-by-mail and on-the-ground organizing. This will begin to show up in the polls only slowly. All of this knowledge is far from conducive to sound sleep, and it should motivate Democrats to work as never before. But it’s far too early to be panicking.”

Kamala (D): “That photo of people wearing ‘Nebraska Walz’s for Trump’ shirts? They’re distant cousins” [Associated Press]. • Families, I’m tellin ya….

* * *

Trump (R): “Two RT Employees Indicted for Covertly Funding and Directing U.S. Company that Published Thousands of Videos in Furtherance of Russian Interests” (press release) [Office of Public Affairs, Department of Justice]. Aren’t we paying the Censorship Industrial Complex a lot of money to prevent this sort of thing? Anyhow: “The Justice Department has charged two employees of RT, a Russian state-controlled media outlet, in a $10 million scheme to create and distribute content to U.S. audiences with hidden Russian government messaging,’ said Attorney General Merrick B. Garland. ‘The Justice Department will not tolerate attempts by an authoritarian regime to exploit our country’s free exchange of ideas in order to covertly further its own propaganda efforts, and our investigation into this matter remains ongoing.’ ‘Our approach to combating foreign malign influence is actor-driven, exposing the hidden hand of adversaries pulling strings of influence from behind the curtain,’ said Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco. ‘As alleged in today’s indictment, Russian state broadcaster RT and its employees, including the charged defendants, co-opted online commentators by funneling them nearly $10 million to pump pro-Russia propaganda and disinformation across social media to U.S. audiences. The Department will not tolerate foreign efforts to illegally manipulate American public opinion by sowing discord and division.’ ‘Covert attempts to sow division and trick Americans into unwittingly consuming foreign propaganda represents attacks on our democracy,’ said FBI Director Christopher A. Wray.” • The rhetoric seems a little over-heated (helpfully underlined); can they possibly believe that they’re saying? Anyhow, it’s good to have the sources of “division” identified at last. And now do Israel and The Lobby.

Trump (R): “Right-wing influencers were duped to work for covert Russian operation, US says” [Associated Press]. “An indictment filed Wednesday alleges a media company linked to six conservative influencers — including well-known personalities Tim Pool, Dave Rubin and Benny Johnson — was secretly funded by Russian state media employees to churn out English-language videos that were ‘often consistent’ [whatever that means] with the Kremlin’s ‘interest in amplifying U.S. domestic divisions [whatever that means] in order to weaken U.S. opposition’ to Russian interests, like its war in Ukraine. In addition to marking the third straight presidential election in which U.S. authorities have unveiled politically charged details about Russia’s attempted interference in U.S. politics, an indictment indicates how Moscow may be attempting to capitalize on the skyrocketing popularity of right-wing podcasters, livestreamers and other content creators who have found successful careers on social media in the years since Trump was in office. The U.S. Justice Department doesn’t allege any wrongdoing by the influencers, some of whom it says were given false information about the source of the company’s funding.” • No doubt the charges of wrongdoing will come soon enough.

* * *

Trump (R): “Donald Trump is deeply threatened by Kamala Harris – and desperately flailing” [Sidney Blumenthal, Guardian]. ” Losing to Harris would be the extinction of his virility. She compounds his existential crisis.” • I guess this is where the “joy” comes from? What is wrong with these people…. (Blumenthal is a former senior adviser to both Bill and Hillary Clinton.)

* * *

Stein (G): I’m so old I remember when single payer was actually a campaign issue:

Asking for my vote!

* * *

PA: “Biden to Block US Steel Sale in Bid for Western PA – Electric Battery Workers Face Union Busting as Kamala Visits – 1,000 Battery Workers Unionize” [Payday Report]. “As Payday Report went to press, news reports leaked that the Biden Administration intended to block the sale of Pittsburgh-based US Steel to the Japanese company Nippon Steel. The Steelworkers union, based in Pittsburgh, has long advocated blocking the sale. They want the company to be sold to Cleveland Cliffs, with whom the union already has a relationship. When Biden previewed the blockage here at a Labor Day event in Pittsburgh, he received thunderous applause and much positive press coverage in the region. … Folks, unions are going to be crucial to winning in Western Pennsylvania. They represent 1 in 5 voters, which is why Kamala Harris and Tim Walz plan to come to Pittsburgh once or twice a week until election day. Payday hopes to cover them and how union members and racial justice groups are responding here in Western PA.”

Realignment and Legitimacy

“I Found the Antidote to American Polarization at the Minnesota State Fair” [InsideHook]. Seeing a photo of a ginormous crowd, none masked. Hope none of ’em breathed in any H5N1-laden aerosols from a milking operation. More: “t’s said that, in the U.S., we’re always in an election year. Here in Minnesota, as in every other state in the country, we have a tendency to succumb to the unfair labels that are plastered on our own neighbors in this endless red-blue dichotomy. If you live in Beltrami Country, which favored Trump in 2020, you may see Hennepin County through the blue lens that it’s been given by our never-ending political coverage. If you live in Blue Earth County, which favored Biden in 2020, you may see neighboring Waseca County in a red tint. Thankfully, we have the Minnesota State Fair, which softens and dissolves these labels like a piping hot Sweet Martha’s cookie dipped in a cup of ice-cold, all-you-can-drink milk. I’ve been to Fergus Falls, a city of 14,000 across the border from North Dakota, probably once in my entire life, but I cheered on Dane Mouser, a resident of that city, who won this year’s youth edition of the giant pumpkin competition. Does his family’s politics align with mine? That question never crossed my mind, as I was too busy considering how big of a candle you’d need for a 774-pound jack-o’-lantern. My grandparents are from a small farm community called Bird Island (population 989), which is peppered with plenty of Trump signs every time I visit, but that didn’t stop any Harris supporters from ogling at the incredible showing from that one-stoplight town in the Largest Sugar Beet contest: Dale Prokosch, Connor Elfering and Kya Elfering swept second, third and fourth place.” • No Russkies!

“Why Men Are Drifting to the Far Right” [Rachel Kleinfeld, Persuasion]. “While much has been written on the role of race in recent elections, gender is playing a crucial and different role. White men formed Trump’s core support in 2016, but by 2020, Trump polled 12 points better with black men than black women, winning 18% of the black male vote. People who care about democracy could read these numbers and conclude that they should simply double down on getting women to vote. But giving up on half of one’s country is not good civics—nor is it smart electoral math….. The problem is not that men are natural crusaders for authoritarian populists. In fact, American men are much more likely to be politically apathetic, and most young men are better characterized as confused and drifting. The problem is that anti-democratic and violent forces are trying to weaponize that aimlessness. Politics is coming into most men’s lives subtly. They look for belonging, purpose, and advice, and find a mix of grifters, political hacks, and violent extremists who lead them down an ugly road. And few people are fighting back. Popular culture focuses on Elon Musk, Davos CEOs, and the other men flourishing at the top of society’s heap. But that’s not where the majority of men exist. Men with only a high school diploma typically earned $1,017 a week in today’s dollars in 1979; now they earn $881. More than one in ten men in their prime aren’t working at all.” • Yikes, and yikes.

Syndemics

“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).

Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!

Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Stay safe out there!

* * *

Airborne Transmission

“Indoor air monitoring goes to school” [Chemical and Engineering News]. How it started: “[I]t wasn’t until the day after the US ended its COVID-19 public health emergency in May 2023 [ha ha] that the CDC provided a precise ventilation target of five air changes per hour in any occupied space. For schools to meet this target, the air in every classroom would need to be completely refreshed every 12 min. In Denver, Hernandez says, ‘none of these schools could do that.'” How it’s going: “In Colorado and Boston, collaborations between scientists and school districts that helped get students safely back to school at the height of the pandemic have continued and expanded. The indoor air monitoring programs that begun during the pandemic are now ensuring that kids headed back this fall are breathing clean air in homeroom.” Two cities… And: “With hundreds of schools now actively monitoring indoor air quality, it is perhaps surprising that it took a global pandemic to get air sensors into classrooms. The onus of monitoring and regulating the air pollutants inside buildings has always fallen to building managers. The US Environmental Protection Agency ‘doesn’t have broad responsibility for monitoring indoor air or ensuring its quality in the same way we are authorized for ambient air,’ says Vito Ilacqua, acting director of the agency’s Center for Scientific Analysis. In other words, there is no Clean Air Act for indoor spaces.” • Sigh.

“Are chronic absenteeism interventions working?” [K-12 Dive]. “About one-quarter (23%) of school districts surveyed said none of the strategies they put in place to combat chronic absenteeism have been particularly effective, according to an analysis of data published Tuesday by Rand Corporation and the Center on Reinventing Public Education. One explanation, according to researchers’ interviews with district leaders, is a cultural shift occurring since COVID-19-related school building closures, in which students and families view school attendance as optional and less important.” • Or maybe — work with me, here — the kids are just sick all the time.

Airborne Transmission: Covid

Transmission: Covid

“Superspreading, overdispersion and their implications in the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature” [BMC Public Health]. From 2023, highly germane. From the Abtract: “A recurrent feature of infectious diseases is the observation that different individuals show different levels of secondary transmission. This inter-individual variation in transmission potential is often quantified by the dispersion parameter k. Low values of k indicate a high degree of variability and a greater probability of superspreading events. Understanding k for COVID-19 across contexts can assist policy makers prepare for future pandemics…. Our compilation of k estimates for subgroups classified according to different criteria showed that superspreading occurs across all age groups and in a wide variety of settings. … [A]symptomatic carriers can be particularly hazardous, as they showed more heterogeneous transmission patterns and can thus also contribute to superspreading. Going forward, a common approach in early pandemic response measures is the so-called backward tracing of cases, recommended by one study, in which not only possible contacts of the infected individual are notified, but also the origin of infection is traced back to the index case. This method helps to identify clusters and was largely adopted by Japan in the first wave of infections. Cluster based approaches were shown to be effective in preventing superspreading events and help to terminate transmission chains, where done very promptly. In the case of COVID-19, we found one modelling study comparing backward and forward tracing methods. It suggested that primary cases identified by backward tracing may generate 3-10 times more infections than those identified by forward tracing. The proportion of secondary cases thereby averted was estimated to two to threefold and effectively contributed to outbreak control. These findings are a reminder, that early rapid control efforts can be pivotal even in pathogens with high levels of infectiousness.” • Well, so much for that.

Maskstravaganza

“Study suggests COVID face masks don’t impair most social interaction” (press release) [University of Kansas]. “A new study just published in Journal of Applied Social Psychology debunks the idea that wearing a mask to slow the spread of disease damages most everyday social exchanges…. Reporting results from an experiment with 250 university students carried out in 2012 — before masks became fodder for political and cultural angst — psychology researchers based at the University of Kansas and Wellesley College found mask wearing ‘had no effect on the ease, authenticity, friendliness of the conversation, mood, discomfort or interestingness’ of interactions between students.” • Take that smile Nazis!

“A smart mask for exhaled breath condensate harvesting and analysis” [Science]. “Here, we introduce EBCare, a mask-based device for real-time in situ monitoring of [Exhaled breath condensate (EBC)] biomarkers. Using a tandem cooling strategy, automated microfluidics, highly selective electrochemical biosensors, and a wireless reading circuit, EBCare enables continuous multimodal monitoring of EBC analytes across real-life indoor and outdoor activities. We validated EBCare’s usability in assessing metabolic conditions and respiratory airway inflammation in healthy participants, patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or asthma, and patients after COVID-19 infection.” • Great. How about when we inhale? Can we get that, too?

Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

“Did the pandemic ruin sex? Scientists say it could constitute a health crisis” [Salon]. “Yet, as [Dr. Liam Wignall, a lecturer in psychology at Bournemouth University] clarified, ‘when participants were asked to indicate which sexual behaviors they engaged in before lockdown and then subsequently during lockdown, the number of people engaging in the behaviors decreased for all behaviors. The biggest reduction was sexual intercourse with somebody else [not your partner]’ – the amount of people doing this dropped by 88%. This is tentative evidence that generally people were following lockdown measures, at least when sex is concerned.” • Perhaps this is the source of all the angst (particularly on the conservative side of the house, where IIRC, Grindr observed peak usage during the Republican National Convention)?

Sequelae: Covid

“Living with Long COVID: What it’s Like to be Diagnosed with the Debilitating Disease” [AARP]. “Although the dangers of acute COVID ­infection may have ebbed for many, the ­reality of long COVID is coming into view. Of those who contracted COVID-19 within the past four years, 10 to 20 percent have experienced long COVID. ‘With every new case of acute COVID [the initial phase of infection when diagnosed or symptoms first appear], there is risk for developing long COVID,’ says Caitlin McAuley, D.O., a family physician at the Keck COVID Recovery Clinic in Los Angeles. She’s had patients who developed long COVID fully recover, get reinfected several times with no lingering effects, then develop another case that leads to a new bout of long COVID. She’s also seen patients who got COVID twice with no lingering effects, and the third time they ended up with prolonged symptoms.” • Mainstreamed at last…

Elite Maleficence

Cute!

* * *

TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC August 26: Last Week[2] CDC (until next week):

Variants [3] CDC August 31 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC August 24

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, data August 30: National [6] CDC August 10:

Positivity
National[7] Walgreens September 3: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic August 24:

Travelers Data
Positivity[9] CDC August 12: Variants[10] CDC August 12:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC August 24: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC August 24:

LEGEND

1) for charts new today; all others are not updated.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with hot spots annotated. Keeps spreading.

[2] (CDC) Last week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very popular. XDV.1 flat.

[4] (ED) Down, but worth noting that Emergency Department use is now on a par with the first wave, in 2020.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Flat, that is, no longer down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what is, in percentage terms, a significant increase.

[7] (Walgreens) Big drop, but all those white states showing no change: Labor Day weekend reporting issues?

[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.

[9] (Travelers: Positivity) Down. Those sh*theads at CDC have changed the chart so that it doesn’t even run back to 1/21/23, as it used to, but now starts 1/1/24. There’s also no way to adjust the time range. CDC really doesn’t want you to be able to take a historical view of the pandemic, or compare one surge to another. In an any case, that’s why the shape of the curve has changed.

[10] (Travelers: Variants) What the heck is LB.1?

[11] Deaths low, but positivity up. If the United States is like Canada, deaths are several undercounted:

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Employment Situation: “United States Challenger Job Cuts” [Trading Economics]. “US employers announced 75,891 job cuts in August 2024, the most in five months, and the most for the month since 2009 when excluding the pandemic-induced crash in 2020. The result was in line with other key releases in reflecting the softening of the US labor market, strengthening the rhetoric for doves in the FOMC. Among different sectors, tech companies announced the most cuts….”

Employment Situation: “United States Initial Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US dropped by 5,000 from the previous week to 227,000 on the period ending August 31st, below market expectations of 230,000, and reaching a new 7-week low.”

Employment Situation: “United States ADP Employment Change” [Trading Economics]. “Private businesses in the US added 99K workers to their payrolls in August 2024, the lowest number since January 2021, following a downwardly revised 111K in July and well below forecasts of 145K. Figures showed the labor market continued to cool for the fifth straight month while wage growth was stable.”

* * *

Tech: “Intel’s Money Woes Throw Biden Team’s Chip Strategy Into Turmoil” [Bloomberg]. “The Biden-Harris administration’s big bet on Intel Corp. to lead a US chipmaking renaissance is in grave trouble as a result of the company’s mounting financial struggles, creating a potentially damaging setback for the country’s most ambitious industrial policy in decades. Five months after the president traveled to Arizona to unveil a potential $20 billion package of incentives alongside Chief Executive Officer Pat Gelsinger, there are growing questions around when — or if — Intel will get its hands on that money. Intel’s woes also may jeopardize the government’s ability to reach its policy goals, which include establishing a secure supply of cutting-edge chips for the Pentagon and making a fifth of the world’s advanced processors by 2030. Intel is mired in a sales slump worse than anticipated and hemorrhaging cash, forcing its board to consider increasingly drastic actions — including possibly splitting off its manufacturing division or paring back global factory plans, Bloomberg reported last week. That threatens to further complicate its quest for government funding, at a time when Intel desperately needs the help. The Silicon Valley company is supposed to receive $8.5 billion in grants and $11 billion in loans from the 2022 Chips and Science Act, but only if the chipmaker meets key milestones — and after significant due diligence. That process, which applies to all Chips Act winners, has been clear from the outset, and aims to ensure that companies only get taxpayer dollars once they’ve actually delivered on their promises. Intel, like other potential recipients, hasn’t received any money yet. In ongoing negotiations, Intel has grown frustrated with what it sees as the government dragging its feet and has urged officials to release funding faster….” • Who’s running Intel? Zelensky?

Entertainment: “Leaked Disney Data Reveals Financial and Strategy Secrets” [Wall Street Journal]. “A spreadsheet exposed in the leak appears to detail revenue generated from Genie+, the premium park pass launched in 2021. The pass is a signature achievement of Disney’s theme park division chief, and the data underscores how vital Genie+ has become to the financial performance of that unit. The file indicates that the passes generated more than $724 million in pretax revenue between October 2021 and June 2024 at Walt Disney World alone.” • Looks like some customers felt scammed by Genie+, so Disney got rid of it in favor of a thing called Lighting Lane. I wonder what its lifespan will be? Incentives have not changed… And from the horrid press release: “We deeply value the trust families place in Disney to create lasting memories….” Dear Lord. Why would we need Disney to create “lasting memories”?

Real Estate: “Creative destruction rips through US commercial property” [Financial Times]. “The financial train wreck laying waste to parts of the market for big office buildings in some of America’s largest cities is showing no signs of abating, even as the US economy as a whole continues to be chugging along just fine. The questions remain as to why this is happening and whether the bottom has been reached. The detritus is strewn everywhere…. Part of the problem for owners of these buildings, and their lenders, is the fundamental change in the nature of work, post-pandemic. Between high-speed internet access, video calls and working-from-home privileges, people aren’t going to an office to work as often as before — although that partly depends on the city, with Miami and New York City having much higher levels of employees back in the office compared with San Francisco and Los Angeles. Less office space is now needed. ‘The vacancy rates are the highest I’ve ever seen,’ Flexner said. It does seem bleak, and there are genuine negative knock-on effects for restaurants, retail stores and other businesses that depend on the foot traffic and commerce generated by a bustling office complex…. As for these struggling commercial office towers, Schumpeter’s logic is likely to prove true. [Tom Flexner, a former vice-chair at Citigroup] said many of these buildings would be razed, taken down to the raw land, at great cost, and then would rise again as residential properties or new commercial properties designed to meet the demands of the evolving office culture. Until then, the bloodbath will continue and the pain will be considerable for both equity and debtholders.”

Real Estate: “Frenzy over Venezuelan gang in Aurora reaches crescendo, fueled by conflicting information and politics” [Denver Post]. “The mayor’s claim of a gang takeover is disputed by other city officials, who say the longstanding disarray and poor conditions at the apartment buildings were the fault of poor oversight by CBZ Management — not because of criminal acts by Tren de Aragua members. ‘There’s this hysteria that we apparently have a gang problem, but what we have is a slumlord problem in the city of Aurora,’ City Councilwoman Alison Coombs said.”

* * *

Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 47 Neutral (previous close: 52 Neutral) [CNN]. One week ago: 60 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Sep 5 at 1:10:04 PM ET.

Gallery

“The ancient art of Keith Haring” [The Easel]. Worth reading in full. This caught my eye: “More interesting, I think, are the raw reactions from the majority of people who were experiencing Haring’s work—that is, the people who stumbled upon Haring’s babies and dogs and weird creatures and UFOs on the walls of New York City. [Haring biographer Brad] Gooch quotes actress and performance artist Ann Magnuson as saying, ‘Keith’s subway panels greeted you like welcome mats at each downtown stop. Personalized petroglyphs that spelled relief from the piss-soaked wreckage of the Lower East Side.’ Haring himself was often amazed that so few people messed with or defaced his drawings, as happened with so much of the public art and graffiti of the time. Haring noted that ‘the drawings seemed to have this protective power that prevented people from destroying them.’ This power, according to Haring, was a ‘protective nimbus’ that had something to do with the images being a form of ‘primitive code.'” • I wonder if the same is true of Banksy?

Book Nook

“Just say it, Henry” [London Review of Books]. The prefaces of Henry James. “People who are impatient with the late James may think his view of human reality is over-refined and unreal. It isn’t. It is a version of the world in which we live… [W]e occupy a delicate weave of emotions and beliefs that half beguiles us into thinking of ourselves as its centre, until something is seen or something happens which tells us, irrefutably, that we are not. We live in a state of bewilderment, even though we do not want to acknowledge it, and indeed may not always know it. James’s late style evolved along with this multiplex vision of human reality, and it is not so much a vehicle for that vision as its enabling condition. That fusion of style and content was a great event in the literary history of the early 20th century…. The best moments in the prefaces are not just about the fiction but share with the later fiction a fascination with the dirty things that they are trying not to talk about, or from which they may even be flinching or recoiling.” • Hence the inverted commas, the adverbs, the endless circumlocutions….

strong>Guillotine Watch

“Tuition: $9,400. Dorm Room Interior Designer: $10,000?” [New York Times]. “Today, a wave of undergraduates — especially in the southern states — are hiring interior designers to completely makeover their dorm rooms at a cost of thousands of dollars per room…. “We’re moving away from Ikea, and getting the opposite of fast furniture,” said Ginger Curtis, the founder of Urbanology Designs, a high-end Dallas-based interior design space that works with students preparing to go to college. She said she can help students on a budget for $7,000 to $8,000, though the costs can grow much higher. Depending on the amount students (or really, their parents) are willing to spend, Ms. Curtis will recommend custom fabrics for the curtains, monogrammed pillows, linens, a couch and coffee table, headboard and dust ruffles; handmade murals or removable wallpaper; luxury light fixtures to replace fluorescent lights; and real wood hutches, shelves and cabinets custom-made to fit the room.” • I hate this timeline.

Class Warfare

“Ultra-Rich Families Set to Control $9.5 Trillion by 2030, Deloitte Says” [Bloomberg] “The wealth of ultra-rich families will likely swell to $9.5 trillion by 2030, according to estimates from consultancy Deloitte, as family offices grow and morph to rival hedge funds. The figure would mark a 73% jump from the current $5.5 trillion controlled by people represented by family offices, according to the report. The number of investment firms for the wealthy is expected to grow by one-third over the same time period, to 10,720. As wealth inequality concentrates more money in the hands of the very rich, and as it becomes easier to open a family office, the industry is catching up with hedge funds in size and — in some cases — hiring from a similar pool of professional investors.” • Trees grow to the sky?

“Building Worker Power in Cities & States” [Center for Labor and a Just Economy, Harvard]. On worker’s boards: “Workers’ boards — also known as workforce standards boards, industry standards boards, wage boards, or sectoral co-regulation — are government entities that generally consist of workers, employers, and representatives of the public. Since the early 20th century, tripartite boards (focused primarily on setting wages) have existed in a handful of states, including California, Colorado, Massachusetts, and New York. Over the last decade, however, an increasing number of states and cities have established workers’ boards across a range of industries, covering domestic work, agriculture, and nursing homes, among others. While details vary from model to model, these standard-setting bodies all give workers a formalized role in setting and enforcing labor standards, wage rates, and benefits across sectors, occupations, and regions. Simulation of the effects of wage boards on wage distributions suggest that boards more effectively address wage stagnation and inequality than raising minimum pay because boards allow for “raising wages not just for those at the very bottom, but also for those at the middle.” By setting standards for pay and benefits across sectors and regions, boards can disincentivize firms from competing with one another by lowering labor standards at the expense of workers.” • Interesting, but why do we have to simulate anything?

News of the Wired

I have yet to become wired today.

* * *

Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From MarkT:

MarkT writes: “Another winter walkd among the giant tree ferns in Akatarawa Forest Park, Wellington, New Zealand.”

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I have had a correspondent characterize my views as realistic cynical. Let me briefly explain them. I believe in universal programs that provide concrete material benefits, especially to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime example, but tuition-free college and a Post Office Bank also fall under this heading. So do a Jobs Guarantee and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can deliver on such programs, because the two are different flavors of neoliberalism (“Because markets”). I don’t much care about the “ism” that delivers the benefits, although whichever one does have to put common humanity first, as opposed to markets. Could be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t much care, as long as the benefits are delivered. To me, the key issue — and this is why Medicare for All is always first with me — is the tens of thousands of excess “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton study, and other recent studies. That enormous body count makes Medicare for All, at the very least, a moral and strategic imperative. And that level of suffering and organic damage makes the concerns of identity politics — even the worthy fight to help the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — bright shiny objects by comparison. Hence my frustration with the news flow — currently in my view the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the other by out-of-power liberals and their allies in the State and in the press — a news flow that constantly forces me to focus on matters that I regard as of secondary importance to the excess deaths. What kind of political economy is it that halts or even reverses the increases in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I am also very hopeful that the continuing destruction of both party establishments will open the space for voices supporting programs similar to those I have listed; let’s call such voices “the left.” Volatility creates opportunity, especially if the Democrat establishment, which puts markets first and opposes all such programs, isn’t allowed to get back into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I love the tactical level, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been blogging about it daily for fourteen years, but everything I write has this perspective at the back of it.

72 comments

  1. Fastball

    Russia Russia Russia!!

    But Israel is free to dump tens of millions of our own laundered taxpayer dollars into efforts to blackmail U.S. politicians, almost all of which succeed.

    1. griffen

      It’s a movie reboot of a movie reboot…Red Dawn which I honestly don’t remember well at all from the first movie that was out in the 1980’s.

      1. Henry Moon Pie

        I saw “Red Dawn” in the drive-in where the drive-in scene was filmed. It was just north of Las Vegas, NM. On the other side of Route 3, a highway that goes from Vegas to Mora where we lived and ultimately to Taos, they built a gas station and then blew it up. Never saw Patrick Swayze though. He must have been hiding out in the woods on Jack Nicholson’s place.

      2. anotherLiam

        *spoiler alert*

        It’s hardly peak cinema, but the original movie is still one of my guilty pleasures. It’s unfortunate that all anyone ever remembers of it, if they remember it at all, is the first half where it’s very much USA! USA! cheerleading. By the time it ends, everyone involved is either dead, insane, or so disillusioned to the whole thing that they just want it to end. Certainly a lot closer to reality than most of what passes as entertainment these days.

    2. Screwball

      Russia Russia Russia!!

      No kidding. They are eating this up like Nancy’s ice cream. Anybody could be a Russian, everyone might be a Russian. OH NO!! Lions and Tigers and Bears!

      What a shit show, and all the people swallowing this garbage thinks anyone that doesn’t agree with them are the crazy people. And we will have months more of this. I can hardly wait.

      What a world.

      1. jsn

        Yeah, look what they’ve lathered the Israelis into.

        Fortunately the US doesn’t have universal military service, so we’re less likely to hurt ourselves as badly,

    3. Googoogajoob

      It’s the unfortunate reality that it’s who you’re aligned with for better or worse. For my friends, everything. For my enemies, the law.

      Not too sure I’d characterize this as Russiagate II or completely dismiss this out of pocket just yet. At least for me, how I interpreted Russiagate I (?) is there was some Russia OPs doing some social media shenanigans but at a scale that was so miniscule that it could not have swung that election despite the crooning in the media about it.

      That being said though, is it really that implausible that Russia might have stepped this up a few notches? America is no stranger to doing media OPs in other countries so in a sense it’s all part of the game. The thought does occur to me as well that the paper thin Russiagate I case arguably does provide a strong cover for a real concerted effort.

      Either way, as far as I see it if you can dish it out you better be able to take it but that’s just not the case when it comes to foreign affairs.

      1. Lambert Strether Post author

        > completely dismiss this out of pocket just yet

        I don’t dismiss it operationally, despite the hysteria evident in the DOJ press release. But is anything that creates “division” — i.e., that harshes the PMC mellow — to be branded as the product of Russian propaganda? These people are crazier than sh*thouse rats.

        1. rowlf

          Are the PMC concerned about Purity Of Essence in the Dr Strangelove/General Ripper way?

          Ripper: Now, last, and possibly most important, I want all privately owned radios to be immediately impounded.

          Mandrake: Yes sir.

          Ripper: They might be used to issue instructions to saboteurs. As I have previously arranged, Air Police will have lists of all owners and I want every single one of them collected without exception.

            1. The Rev Kev

              I should have gone more into that comment. I mean the “dangers” of registering guns. I think that in preWW2 France that people registered their guns. So when the Germans took over, they went out with French gendarmes to confiscate those guns as they knew who had them by the police lists.

              1. rowlf

                The US did that too in Italy, if old US firearms magazines comments are accurate.

                I have several French friends who have mentioned magnet fishing in wells in the countryside in the 1970s hoping to find something.

        2. Googoogajoob

          I don’t think it necessarily had to be Russian, it could have been of any origin (who knows maybe we’ll find out how the Chinese are soon also influencing people on social media eventually).

          I don’t see this being about PMC coded as much but rather good ol’ exceptionalism. How dare the vandals corrupt the pure and noble hearts of our fair citizens though their puppets? (also, please don’t mention the last 75+ years of our intelligence apparatus’ activities globally when pondering this)

          Having seen this discourse up here in Canada on the hand wringing about foreign interference with respects to elected officials or otherwise I’m left with the impression that a significant portion of the population, PMC or otherwise, really have a hard time conceiving the notion that other countries may have interests and work to promote them through various means, but when confronted with it are very selective about who is interfering and who is welcome to influence.

          The geopolitical lines are being notched into the ground at a worrying intensity and at some point we’re all are going to have to make a choice on where we ultimately stand, warts and all.

    4. Pelham

      Excellent point, although I suppose the DOJ would distinguish between so-called democracies spooling out propaganda and influence over our elections and officials and authoritarian regimes. It’s all spelled out in the 1st Amendment, I believe: Free speech applies only up to the point that a foreigner utters it or authorities deem it to be unhelpful.

    5. lyman alpha blob

      Here’s a related link –

      https://apnews.com/article/russian-interference-presidential-election-influencers-trump-999435273dd39edf7468c6aa34fad5dd

      Supposedly the Russkis duped some conservatives into being useful idiots. Only name I recognize from that article is Tim Pool, and while I don’t listen to him, my understanding is that he isn’t so much a right winger as somebody who often questions the official narrative. Even the article admits –

      “Pool, a journalist-turned-YouTuber who first gained public attention for livestreaming the Occupy Wall Street protests

      – and that doesn’t seem right wing to me.

      The establishment all over the West is labeling anyone who disagrees with their narrative as a right winger, fascist, nazi, etc. in an attempt to discredit them. Wikileaks release of Vault 7 shone light on many of the digital tools used by the spooks, among them is one that allows the attribution of digital evidence to be manipulated to make it look like it came from anywhere the US spooks want. The article above shows no actual evidence and relies on the word once again of unnamed intelligence officials. And of course the last time the DoJ indicted some Russkis for influencing the elections, they called the US’ bluff and asked for discovery, which led to all the charges being dropped. That last part has largely been forgotten.

      Judging by past actions, this would appear to be a complete fabrication designed to discredit Russia and get some of these ‘right wing influencers’ to get with the official narrative.

    6. Acacia

      I can almost predict that one of my liberal friends will repeat this talking point that RT is “Russian state propaganda … trying to influence our elections”, and when I ask them what the NYT and WaPo are, they will just go silent. And if I add “so, it’s not propaganda when our state shapes the media narrative — amirite?” they may just roll their eyes or give me that “don’t make me think, man” look.

      1. The Rev Kev

        Should ask them about when Obama rolled back that law making it illegal for US propaganda to be used on Americans rather than just foreigners and ask why he did it.

            1. Acacia

              Excellent retort, thank you both !

              I’ll bet most people have never even heard of the U.S. Agency for Global Media: USAGM, with an annual budget of $810 million (compare RT with $328 mil. for 2024), spreading “freedom and democracy” around the world.

              From their “Networks” page:

              USAGM ensures that our networks’ program decisions reflect the U.S. national interest. Given funding constraints and changing foreign policy priorities, it is sometimes necessary to increase broadcasting to an area in crisis, while correspondingly reducing funding in other areas. Decisions to eliminate or reduce broadcast services are never easy.

              Yeah, sorry indie journo, your latest story from [insert area of US interference] will be the last one we require. Other crises heating up. Propaganda blitzes are never predictable, ya know.

  2. Samuel Conner

    Adjacent to the spirit of this morning’s links page item on DIY pharma synthesis, I’ve been intrigued by DIY folk medicine. So many molecules in the plant world.

    A new species for me this year is Lemongrass. At the beginning of the year a friend asked me to grow West Indian Lemongrass for a contact who uses it (in herbal tea form) for analgesia. There is a teeny bit of confirmatory research on this; I don’t know whether the effect is merely perceptual or whether there is some improvement in the underlying condition.

    An interesting correlated effect that the contact reports is that mosquitos are repelled to some degree.

    It’s a tall and fast-growing grass and can be used in landscaping the way other ornamental grasses are used (but it does not tolerate cold winters). Easy to grow from seed, too.

    This is mostly just bloviating on my part, but there are conceivable future scenarios in which “medicinal landscaping” might matter and might be a useful adjunct to DIY pharma/chemistry.

    1. Phenix

      This is actually a thing in the homestead community. I have a baby food forest on my back yard. We are working to incorporate natives and medicinal herbs for next year

  3. VTDigger

    “…the pain will be considerable for both equity and debtholders.”

    Seems to suggest some actual free market activity may occur…somebody call Powell quick!

    Heaven forfend!

  4. ChrisFromGA

    Re: Allan Lichtman’s election prediction

    I see a few dubious scores on the election scorecard.

    Me: “I’ll take foreign/military failures for $400, Alex”

    Alex: This 2024 operation involved sending US and European naval assets into the Red Sea, spending billions of dollars in missile, fuel, and personnel costs, yet failing to prevent Ansar Allah from sinking 2 ships and setting a third oil tanker on fire, threatening a major ecological disaster.”

    Me: What is “Operation Prosperity Guardian, Alex?”

    Alex: That’s right!

    1. urdsama

      The whole tracker is more than dubious, not only based on the “key metrics” chosen but on how he is grading them:

      2. No primary contest – How does he address suppressing such a contest?
      3. Not actually true, the real incumbent was forced out.
      5. Short term strong economy – how does he come to this conclusion?
      6. Long term strong economy – again, how does he come to this conclusion?
      7. No social unrest – a strong item in favor of Harris. How?
      10/11 Flawed as you have pointed out already, but also how is item 11 also undecided? There is literally nothing that can happen as a result of US foreign policy that can change this to a positive for Harris.
      13. Is totally subjective and really comes down to who you ask.

      The more I look at his system the more it appears Lichtman has found the perfect tool to ensure he is right most of the time as the “keys” are so subjective you can bend them anyway you wish.

      Completely worthless.

      1. Pat

        It has been clear for months that for whatever reason Lichtman is desperate for Biden now Harris to win. I don’t know if his assessments have always been so shaky, but even before making his definitive decision he has veered often when questioned on any.

      2. John k

        I give him credit for past predictions. But the past didn’t push you into the ‘right’ speak as it does now. It was possible to be an anti war progressive in the past. Now dems turn those into non entities. Better to have the right perspective than the right prediction.

    2. The Rev Kev

      So what happens if the Ukrainian military completely collapses in the next month or two? That could very well be on the cards and it would be worse than the collapse of Afghanistan. Even the media won’t be able to make that disappear from the news no matter how much they will try. Or will they just pin the whole thing on old Joe and say it does not matter as he is leaving the scene. That will have to have some sort of effect on the elections but what?

      1. Acacia

        If the Ukies crumble ere November, I would not be surprised to see Team Trump cue all the photos of Kamala and Volodymyr shaking hands, and ask why she as VP of the U.S. of Effin’ A. didn’t support them enough.

        There is also the minor issue of Putin now praising her cackling laugh as “infectious” and saying the Kremlin hopes she will win.

        Maybe that’s the best response to the Russiagate cultists?

        If they don’t short-circuit, they’ll probably say “well, he was just being sarcastic…”, to which I would respond “how do you know?”

        1. Lambert Strether Post author

          > If the Ukies crumble ere November,

          I don’t know if it’s a matter of Ukraine “crumbling” as opposed to Ukraine being seen to crumble. I’n not sure I see that happening without big arrows on a map, and big arrow offensives are not what Russia does. I suppose the alternative is regime change, but Big Z seems to be precluding that with his cabinet shuffle.

          So the Democrats make eke it out on Ukraine. But might well lose Michigan over Gaza.

          1. skippy

            They are losing and its getting real Lambert. I mean no weapons system, not range of them is going to change anything. Troops on the ground from the AUF and its control of narrative for the unwashed .. 40 years gone poof ….

      2. Procopius

        IIRC the rains, and the mud, start about the middle of September and last until the temperature drops below freezing, I think about the end of November. The Russians are making good progress now, but I don’t think the war is going to end this year. Maybe by the spring mud season, but I think next summer is more likely. Of course I could very well be wrong and the whole front may collapse next week. I just think we’re too close to the mud season.

  5. t

    Sen. Hawley was told, was he? Still looking for a case where he compares that event to others. (And is it SOP for republican senators to have full voicemail/never respond)

    1. Late Introvert

      I can report that since I registered Independent after The Iowa Cock-Ups my two GOP Senators respond in person to my handfull of correspondence. They all call my phone which I never pick up.

  6. Mikel

    “Creative destruction rips through US commercial property” [Financial Times].

    “Creative destruction”
    I guess that’s a better spin than calling it something like “QE destruction”.

    1. Samuel Conner

      It’s not “OK” to stop worrying, but it might be a perfectly normal side effect of CV-induced neurological damage.

    2. midtownwageslave

      Is It OK to Stop Worrying about HIV?
      Nearly five years on, it might be time to stop treating HIV as exceptional

      Someone in the 1980s, probably.

      1. IM Doc

        I was there – right in the big middle of AIDS in the big city.

        While Reagan got all the blame for “ignoring” AIDS, it was actually the decisions and actions of people like Pelosi and Feinstein that led to far more deaths. Why should we close down the bathhouses? Etc etc etc. Just read Shilts “And the Band Played On” for all the gory details. Why worry about AIDS? We do not want to crater the economy in the city that was the very definition of a super spreader event.

        It is why so many of us old timers recoiled in horror when Pelosi started to spew about COVID. Who will ever forget – TRUMP IS A RACIST FOR DOING THIS – in reference to him closing off air travel to China.

        She and all of these people deserve a very special place in Hell.

        1. CA

          https://www.nytimes.com/1987/11/08/books/plenty-of-blame-to-go-around.html

          November 8, 1987

          PLENTY OF BLAME TO GO AROUND
          By H. Jack Geiger

          AND THE BAND PLAYED ON
          Politics, People, and the AIDS Epidemic.
          By Randy Shilts.

          WE are now in the seventh year of the AIDS pandemic, the worldwide epidemic nightmarishly linking sex and death and drugs and blood. There is, I believe, much more and much worse to come. But great and lethal epidemics are never merely biological events, and never elicit merely biological or scientific responses. They become social forces in their own right, carving deep new fissures in the political and cultural landscape, thrusting up buried fears and hatreds. ”Objective” medicine and science may be as vulnerable to these pressures as, say, Congressmen, evangelists or budget directors.

          And so acquired immune deficiency syndrome is not only an epidemic; it is a mirror, revealing us to ourselves. How did we respond? What does that say about us, and about the future? In ”And the Band Played On,” Randy Shilts, a reporter for The San Francisco Chronicle who has covered AIDS full time since 1983, takes us almost day by day through the first five years of the unfolding epidemic and the responses – confusion and fear, denial and indifference, courage and determination. It is at once a history and a passionate indictment that is the book’s central and often repeated thesis:

          ”The bitter truth was that AIDS did not just happen to America – it was allowed to happen. . . .

          H. Jack Geiger is the Arthur C. Logan Professor of Community Medicine at the City University of New York Medical School.

        2. Pat

          Not closing the bath houses was bad, but the one that got me was the choice to declare the blood supply safe. And yes, I know all the arguments for doing it. In some ways I was too emotional when trying to explain to others why Biden and Harris ripping off their masks to announce the vaccines was such a despicable choice. I had the same stark utterly clear reaction to both of those events, I knew they knew what they were saying was wrong and that someone had run the numbers and gone only X number of people will get infected, there is no reason to do the hard thing. And they told/tell themselves they were making the best choices they could under the circumstances. The utter disregard for public health by those entrusted with it, was breathtaking both times. With Covid we continue to see it daily.
          And that doesn’t even take into account the long term issues of immune suppression and system deregulation we see in long Covid so reminiscent of early immune dysfunction with AIDS (so many small observable things could strike fear in the hearts of those with friends and loved ones in the gay community) Deja Vue has been a constant companion with Covid.

  7. JMH

    I have been reading RT on line for years. Of course it presents the Russian point of view, state sponsored or not. Maybe I missed the insidious propaganda seeking to influence the election. I must be too stupid and impressionable to know what I am reading. Merrick, old boy, you ought to get out of the DC Bubble and Echo Chamber and clear your head. I would bet on long odds that the vast majority of people who follow RT have firm opinions not likely to be shaken by even clever propaganda.

    Ever hear of the boy who cried ,”Wolf?” Grow up.

    1. Late Introvert

      I glance at RT every day and read a few articles. It’s pretty shallow stuff, the articles are short and simple, so it probably does appeal to Americans /s.

      I think it’s the fact they are winning in Ukraine and they are getting so much Western traffic that now something has to be done. Merrick Garland, you write like a high school election candidate with your underpants in a twist.

    2. Daniil Adamov

      It is our RFE/RL… which also didn’t sway many people, I believe; it just catered well to those already inclined to listen, for whatever reason.

  8. Matthew G. Saroff

    Best guess, based on a quick look at news stories and legal filings, on the “Gang Problem” at the apartment complex in Aurora Colorado is that the landlord hired a PR firm to create the hysteria in order to prevent yet another lawsuit for refusing the maintain a property.

    They have already had one building shut down for code violations, and years of complaints.

  9. Cervantes

    > Aurora Venezuela gang allegations

    Isn’t this a perfect microcosm of American politics? Some kind of apartment complex is in terrible disarray. Some people blame immigrant gangs for creating hellish conditions. Others point out that the apartment complex has a terrible landlord who does nothing and just extracts value. Heck, I bet it’s the same kind of run-down Section 8 housing we have in my city. Something tells me that even if gangs have exacerbated some kind of situation in the last few months, none of that would happen in a nice part of Boulder or even Westminster. So, fix the problem by spending more money on law enforcement directed toward immigrants, and not toward landlord-tenant law violations by giant property managers, or by moving away from Section 8 slum policies. I’m sure targeting immigrants will fix everything in Aurora.

  10. steppenwolf fetchit

    It has been noted several times now that the current DemParty Administration is deeply involved in supporting the Israel Government’s current approach to fighting its war in Gaza. And is also deeply committed to whatever Gazafication the current Israel Government cares to try spreading to the West Bank, Lebanon, etc. And the DemParty is considered by some to be the visible face of the Intelligence Community. Or one could put it this way: the DemParty is the visible tip of the Intelligence Community Iceberg.

    If that is true, then the question arises: why does the Intelligence Community support this particular form of Israeli response to the Hamas’s Oct. 7th attack?

    I will propose a completely off-the-wall conspiracy theory without any evidence outside my own dark little mind. The Intelligence Community has decided that Israel is giving us problems and has decided on a Stalinist solution to the problems that it feels Israel is giving us. To paraphrase Stalin . . . ” If a country is giving you problems, eliminate that country to eliminate the problems it is giving you. No country, no problem.”

    What if the Intelligence Community’s ( acting through its visible Democratic Party cut-out) way of achieving “no country, no problem” in the case of Israel is to give the current government of Israel and the current “correlation of forces” within Israel enough rope to hang itself with? If that were the deep-secret deep-goal and if the Intelligence Community has decided that Israel simply has to be deleted and the best way to achieve that outcome is to let Israel delete its own self from existence, then the Intelligence Community might think a few hundred thousand dead Palestinians, or maybe a million or so, is a “price worth paying” in order to give Israel enough rope to hang itself all the way dead with.

    Such an approach towards such a goal would not be outside of the Intelligence Community’s moral norms, or beyond the DemParty establishment’s moral norms either. Has anyone forgotten how President Slicky Bill’s thoroughly mainstream-Democrat Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said that ” 500,000 dead Iraqi children” due to the famine-sanctions would be “worth it” in terms of bringing “democracy” to Iraq? If anyone has, I’ve just reminded them.

    ( The corollary of that purely paranoid line of thought is this: if you really wish to see Israel deleted from existence, then Harris is exactly the President you want in order to get that job done. ” No country, no problem” , as Stalin might would have said.)

    1. urdsama

      While I wouldn’t put it past these groups to come up with such a plan, it has already been shown that Israel successfully spies on the US. So, unless they are okay with becoming a non-state, I doubt this is happening.

    2. Acacia

      Alternately, we could follow the money: Israel is one of the best customers of the MIC. Does the MIC want one of their best customers to disappear, or do they want them to keep on buying moar? Conflicts in Lebanon, Syria, and perhaps Jordan await.

      E.g., after the Oct. 7th opening of the current Israel-Hamas war, Greg Hayes, CEO of Raytheon, declared that war is good for business, as numerous weapons would need to be restocked:

      I think really across the entire Raytheon portfolio, you’re going to see a benefit of this restocking. On top of what we think is going to be an increase in DOD top line.

      https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/30/wall-street-morgan-stanley-td-bank-ukraine-israel-hamas-war

      It’s good for some of the large investment banks, too. Per the same article, Morgan Stanley holds over $3 Bn in Raytheon stock, a 2.1% ownership share.

      The intelligence community works to protect the interests of these companies.

  11. Rick

    No gallery? Haring could certainly be relevant these days of see no covid, hear no covid, speak no covid.

  12. ddt

    Can these Russiagate stooges provide some examples of the propaganda aimed at poor, innocent, American minds? Just out of curiosity. What could possibly affect someone to the point of making a decision to change their vote from a shite sandwich to shite soup?

  13. The Rev Kev

    “Why Men Are Drifting to the Far Right”

    So remember how in the EU countries the centralists and the fake left abandoned voters in favour of those with power? And how as a result, voters had nowhere else to go except with the far right who were actually prepared to listen to them? Organizations like the AfD? And now the far right is resurging across the EU much to the total panic of the centralists and the fake left?

    So let’s go with modern popular culture like mentioned in that article but not ‘Elon Musk, Davos CEOs, and the other men flourishing at the top of society’s heap.’ Ever noticed that the phrase ‘toxic masculinity’ is a thing as well as ‘stoic men’, both of which are held in contempt. You see this reflected in popular films that show this though god help you if you start talking about ‘toxic women’ for example. That criticism only goes one way.

    So what I am saying that our modern societies do not value men but degrade them and “Hollywood values” may be the worse as these are elitist values. So did they imagine that there would never be a backlash to all this? That men would drift to the one group that was prepared to listen to them? And that that group was the far right? It did not have to be this way as you could have had a society that valued men and women equally but instead went with denigrating half the population, including male children. Especially male children.

  14. JM

    Looks like Twitter ate the Stein tweet and threw up a copy of the Harris tweet.

    About Banksy, from what I’ve seen, his works protective aura is mostly the property owner thinking they can leverage it to make money… Though I do generally like Banksy.

  15. hk

    I’m tempted to ask what Kuttner is smoking, but the truth is thatDems hold an advantage in low propensity voters is such a widely held article of faith among the PMC. I would liken it to the stories about Prester John, the nption that thete’s a powerful Christian king out there that just making contact with him would allow Europeans to conquer the holy land–after all, tjis cult holds that there’s such a pool of automatically Demoxraric voters that just untapping them would ensure a thousand year Democratic reign. The problem with this belief is same as that about Prester John: there weren’t that many Christians outside Europe and even those who sort of fit the Prester John mold, eg the Ethiopians, had more important things to do than helping the Euroeans achieve their agenda.

    There may be plenty of low propensity voters, but assuming that they “belong” to one side or the other is silly. If they obviously liked one side over the other, they wouldn’t be nonvoters, aftee all. Even earlier this year, pollsters were noting that the pattern had reverses this year: Biden was losing badly among low propensity voters, of all races. I have trouble believing that Harris has much, or even any, better shot with this group.

  16. MFB

    Harris can be depicted as the incumbent, so if that were a good thing, she would benefit from it. Unfortunately she is the incumbent in an administration which has performed terribly in a wide variety of ways, so she should not.

    Harris can be depicted as the candidate of change because she is of darker skin than her opponent and because she is female. She should benefit from that, except that her race is something she has exploited in very confused ways, as well as the way in which she appears to have exploited her gender.

    Harris can be depicted as the young candidate — twenty years younger than her opponent, although still fifty-nine. It’s worth pondering that Kennedy was forty-three in the 1960 election, and Nixon was forty-seven.

    On balance, it is very hard to see anything genuinely positive about either candidate — positive in the sense of doing something significant to actually help the average American. I suspect that a great number of the voters will turn up because they want to annoy the other side. I imagine pulling the lever of a voting machine in the hope that a Trump victory would cause some horrible Democrats to wake up with Edvard Munch faces. Unfortunately I can’t imagine anything comparable in reverse — horrible Republicans would probably shrug and take their projects to Congress and the Supreme Court. So there is no joyous schadenfreude in Democratville.

    If I were a Republican, however, I would look round at the state of the world and the state of the US and ask whether I want a Republican to have to take ownership of this colossal mess. I see no sign that the Republicans really understand what a mess things are in, however, so they probably don’t really feel that.

    1. steppenwolf fetchit

      Either the Democrats don’t see it either, or they think that ” they alone can fix it”. If they saw it and believed, in the deathless words of Junior Shrubya Bush, that ” this sucker’s going down”; then they would have kept Biden as the nominee and thrown the election to Trump.

      But they didn’t do that. So either they don’t see the size of the mess either, or they think that ” they alone can fix it”.

      The big danger a Harris election poses is World War Nuke. Somebody should ask Nicholas Nassim Taleb how big he thinks the risk of World War Nuke would be if Harris gets elected.

      The big danger a Trump re-election poses is civil violence scattered all over America and a highest-possible-speed adoption of Project 2025, especially in terms of replacing all the Senior Civil Servants in the Administrative Branch of government with Trump-loyal political commissars; and more to the point, with Koch and ALEC and etc. commissars professing loyalty to Trump just long enough to get appointed to all those positions and then acting out their true loyalty to Koch and Heritage and ALEC and all the rest. That outcome would be guaranteed, not just a “risk”.

      The two choices offer two different sorts of bad outcome. World War Nuke would be the worst possible outcome. Libertarian Playground America would be less bad that World War Nuke, but would be an assured outcome, not merely a “risk”.

      One choice is awful, the other is offal. ” Pick your poison” , as they say. Or as Hunter S. Thompson once said, ” Buy the ticket, ride the ride.”

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