Yves here. Rob Urie describes below the many, yet often not terribly visible, inertial forces that will keep the Ukraine conflict alive in some form even if Russia achieves a battlefield victory.
I am not as certain as Urie that the enormous discretionary spending that looks to have been significantly devoted to Project Ukraine can’t be redeployed so as to keep arms merchants busy, such as resorting depleted stocks and gearing up to harass our new baddie-in-chief, China. But it may be that the differences in weapons packages are significant enough so as to break a lot of rice bowls if Ukraine were officially abandoned.
Yours truly also has argued that Trump’s “raw earths” deal with Ukraine commits him to being at odds with Russia, as in having a vested interest in preserving some sort of territorial Ukraine and even deluding himself that that lame agreement will enable him to arm-wrestle Russia over economic rights in parts of Ukraine that have joined or will join Russia. Admittedly, an unconditional surrender would be hard to finesse.
Even though experts point out that the economic value of that agreement is zilch until the war is over, Trump is making threatening noises over property rights he can’t begin to treat as America’s, namely Greenland.
And Trump is falling in with escalation. He acted like even more of a child than usual in the Truth Social post below, and in brief remarks in New Jersey, feigned ignorance of Putin having been on the receiving end of a drone attack in a helicopter visit, as in what sure looks like an assassination attempt.
( @realDonaldTrump – Truth Social Post )
( Donald J. Trump – May 25, 2025, 8:46 PM ET )I’ve always had a very good relationship with Vladimir Putin of Russia, but something has happened to him. He has gone absolutely CRAZY! He is needlessly killing a lot of people, and I’m not… pic.twitter.com/4hzGWP347H
— Donald J. Trump 🇺🇸 TRUTH POSTS (@TruthTrumpPosts) May 26, 2025
( @realDonaldTrump – Truth Social Post )
( Donald J. Trump – May 27, 2025, 11:44 AM ET )What Vladimir Putin doesn’t realize is that if it weren’t for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, and I mean REALLY BAD. He’s playing with fire! pic.twitter.com/fDMmApYkkf
— Donald J. Trump 🇺🇸 TRUTH POSTS (@TruthTrumpPosts) May 27, 2025
In a fresh interview on Dialogue Works, Larry Wilkerson speculates that uber hawks were responsible for these messages. But if not, he depicts this as a sign of dementia, and signals he’s not alone in thinking this way.
This temper tantrum was not effective:
BREAKING: Less than an hour after Trump threatened Putin on Truth Social, Russia has fired a large number of ballistic missiles at Ukrainian cities.
Pray for Ukraine. Clearly Putin doesn’t respect Trump. pic.twitter.com/dM584WTU3U
— Brian Krassenstein (@krassenstein) May 27, 2025
This attack had to have been planned and scheduled well before Trump had his hissy. It’s inconceivable that Russia would call it off. But you’ll see Russia hawks act as if Russia was somehow able to gin up the strikes on a moment’s notice just to further provoke Trump.
By Robert Urie, author of Zen Economics, artist, and musician who publishes The Journal of Belligerent Pontification on Substack
Despite his campaign promise to quickly end the US war in Ukraine, Donald Trump has thus far not done so. His administration’s apparent surprise that the Russians, who have at this point substantially prevailed in the war, aren’t willing to maintain the Western fantasy that the conflict is between Ukraine and Russia, shouldn’t have surprised anyone. Once it is understood that the conflict is between the US and Russia, a different set of problems require resolution.
Merge this observation with competencies that the Americans do have, including money laundering and weapons production and distribution, and the question of how the war funding spigot might be turned off gets murky. US funding for the war is widely claimed to have begun in 2022, following the launch of Russia’s SMO (Special Military Operation). However, discretionary military expenditures leapt in 2013, the year the US-backed coup in Ukraine began, and has remained elevated through today.
Graph: a US-backed coup was launched in Ukraine in 2013, and a US sponsored government was put in place there in 2014. A large rise in discretionary ‘foreign affairs’ spending by the US correlates with the coup and its aftermath. While the data in this graph represents a ratio, and therefore requires nuanced analysis, further evidence presented below corroborates both the scale and approximate timing of the US military appropriations. Source.
The self-serving propaganda offered by the Federal government of the US regarding the war represents all that most Americans know about the conflict. In that fantasy, the West can still prevail in ‘saving’ Ukraine and affecting regime change in Russia. The result to date is one million dead Ukrainians, Europe immersed in its worst political and economic crisis since the mid-20th century, and no clear path to exiting the crisis.
From their public pronouncements to date, most of Mr. Trump’s inner circle and both parties in both houses of Congress are sticking to the talking points crafted by the Biden administration regarding the war in early 2022. A practical problem with doing so is that the Russians have clearly and unambiguously explained 1) what it is that they want and 2) why they want it multiple times, both before the SMO was launched and after. So, why are the Americans and Europeans assigning motives to the Russians that the Russians say aren’t true while ignoring the motives that they have made clear? The answer: for domestic political purposes.
With Western antiwar optimists proclaiming that the war in Ukraine will end when the last of the Congressional appropriations run out in coming months, missing from this logic is the $900 billion per annum (2025) in discretionary appropriations that go to military affairs. With the US Congress firmly in neocon hands, discretionary spending is appropriated by Congressional appropriations committees. From the evidence presented above and below, a large increase in discretionary military spending correlates with the Maidan Coup in Ukraine to the present.
To be clear, the budget process is more complicated than simple correlation suggests. Much of the Federal budget related to the military is secret. This secret funding is allegedly how the CIA funded the building of between eleven and twenty secret facilities in Ukraine following the Maidan Coup in 2014. Conversely, correlation can point to hidden methods. Possibly Congress and the Pentagon care to explain why after the US couped Ukraine, hundreds of billions of dollars in new discretionary military spending immediately followed?
Also missing from this logic is the European plan. The Europeans have pledged— not funded, something in the range of $680 billion for weapons purchases over the next four years. This could be viewed as posturing for negotiation advantage if the Biden administration hadn’t previously arranged for NATO to move intermediate range nuclear missiles into Germany in 2026. Here is MIT nuclear physicist Ted Postol explaining the escalation logic and likely consequences of doing so. As Postol intimates, insane is too kind a description of the plan.
Graph: the US Defense discretionary budget in 2024 was $700 billion. It is a slush fund of sorts, allowing planned, if politically inconvenient if revealed, military actions to be funded without specifying end-use in a public budget. The evidence points to this being a major source of funding for the war in Ukraine from 2013 – 2022, at which time the war was brought onto the books with better defined appropriations. Source.
Americans should understand that US direct appropriations for the war in Ukraine only represent a fraction of US expenditures on the war to date. The $182 billion top-line number of dedicated appropriations since 2022 is dwarfed by the 1) rise and 2) shift in discretionary military appropriations since the US assumed effective control of the Ukrainian government following the Maidan Coup in 2013 – 2014. While the data in the graph above only begins in 2015, it illustrates an increase from $500 billion USD per annum in 2015 to $700 billion in 2024.
What does this mean? Donald Trump has proposed leaving discretionary military appropriations unchanged, at just under $900 billion per annum (2025) in his 2026 budget. The process of allocating these funds belongs to Congressional appropriations committees. Recall, both parties in both houses of Congress are peopled by neocons who have their names on the war in Ukraine. In the US, the Libertarian – Right has put forward the only visible opposition to the war to date. The same party that launched the American genocide in Gaza now wants to keep the war in Ukraine going.
In history, the US botched its transition from the industrial monopoly position it held following WWII, having the only intact industrial economy in the world. It did so by jettisoning its industrial base in favor of an economy based in money laundering, artificial intelligence, and military production. Politicians in the US are ‘talking their book’ by selling war. Almost every Congressional district in the US engages in some stage of military production. And campaign contributions from military producers keep lawmakers in Congress.
The point is that between American and European politicians, they all have economic and political incentives to perpetuate the war. Backing away suggests that the rationales for war were either lies, poorly conceived, or never materially relevant. And Western efforts to control the narrative using censorship and propaganda suggest increasing desperation in the face of events unraveling. What is absolutely clear is that none of the motives that Western politicians attribute to the Russians reflect what the Russians have offered regarding their own motives.
While predicting what Donald Trump will do from one day to the next is beyond the ability of mere mortals, a look at US institutional capabilities and capacities suggests that American presidents have limited ability to control the actions of Congress and the permanent government. Discretionary spending is by definition undefined until it is defined through the allocation process. Since 2013, the date of the start of the US coup in Ukraine, US discretionary military spending has grown to levels last seen during the Vietnam War.
After suggesting that he would cut US military spending if elected, Donald Trump’s 2026 budget proposal calls for discretionary military spending in the same amount in 2026 as was allocated in 2025 ($900 billion USD). Whatever Mr. Trump’s war intentions, there is no ‘peace dividend’ reflected in the US military budget. This could reflect additional funding for the American – Israeli genocide in Greater Israel. By deducing intentions from past and planned expenditures, Donald Trump appears to be planning for more war, not less.
Rumor has it that former US president Barack Obama never approved military aid for Ukraine because he didn’t want to provoke the Russians. However, and again, there was a large jump in discretionary US military expenditures that began with the Maidan Coup, and which haven’t ended yet. According to press accounts at the time, these military expenditures correlate with the CIA arming and training the Ukrainian military to attack Russian-speaking Ukrainians in Ukraine. Yes, the US was paying to kill Ukrainians when Russia launched its SMO.
There is sincere hope here that the antiwar optimists are correct and that as war funding runs out, the war will wind down. However, 1) the European political leadership sees no path forward outside of continued war, 2) the Trump administration doesn’t know enough about the conflict to negotiate an end to it, 3) the CIA can and will continue its operations in Ukraine until it is made to stop, and 4) through discretionary military appropriations and other sources of hidden funding, it (CIA) can keep the war going outside of the dedicated appropriations that the Biden administration provided.
The covering up of the historical prelude to Russia’s SMO (‘unprovoked’) makes it difficult for Americans to understand the context of the war. Use of discretionary and hidden funds allowed the CIA to craft an army and launch a war against Russia that Americans knew nothing about until the New York Times produced two extended articles by Adam Entous on the conflict. Of my friends who support the war in Ukraine, devotees to the New York Times all, none will read the articles. Their ignorance renders them blameless, goes the logic.
As hegemon, the American conceit that it can slaughter and pillage abroad with impunity had descriptive value, even if doing so is morally repugnant. With the empire now in economic, political, and geopolitical free-fall, who the legitimate authority is within the US is less clear than it once was. Donald Trump is familiar with this process. Mr. Trump was President when the CIA, acting in league with rogue elements in Congress, used hidden and discretionary funding to launch a war that the American people were told nothing about.
The US and Europe are too politically dysfunctional to end the war as the optimists are forecasting, even after Russia has achieved a military victory over Ukraine. The US experience as the money-laundering capitol of the world suggests that hard determinations based on future funding constraints only apply to we little people. Direct appropriations have little to do with how the US funds its wars. This renders the US ungovernable and its wars unstoppable. Until they are stopped. God help us.
This paragraph describes the blurry causes, which nevertheless may prove fatal: “As hegemon, the American conceit that it can slaughter and pillage abroad with impunity had descriptive value, even if doing so is morally repugnant. With the empire now in economic, political, and geopolitical free-fall, who the legitimate authority is within the US is less clear than it once was. Donald Trump is familiar with this process. Mr. Trump was President when the CIA, acting in league with rogue elements in Congress, used hidden and discretionary funding to launch a war that the American people were told nothing about.”
In a sense, the rest of this essay describes a proxy war that is a symptom of decline and that has hastened decline. The populace is not yet prepared to give up on Manifest Destiny, Russians Are Orcs, and the Pledge of Allegiance, all of which are falling apart before their very eyes.
The paragraph I quote (for its insight) is a diagnosis:
My quibble would be with the word “hegemon.” The rest of the paragraph gainsays the seeming clarity of who is the hegemon. The “soft power” of the U S of A, the persuasiveness of constitutional values, the allure of U.S. music and literature, the plain-spoken style that was once much admired have all been swept away by the splendors of a neo-baroque and greedy empire.
Hegemony is slipping away — and to paraphrase Gramsci, what will ensure is many symptoms of morbid disease.
The author claims: ‘In history, the US botched its transition from the industrial monopoly position it held following WWII, having the only intact industrial economy in the world’.
Nominally neutral Sweden also had an unscathed industrial economy. Something that served the country very well until neoliberalism swept into Sweden in the 1980s. The country is now a complete mess, with rising inequality, failing privatised services, including healthcare and education. And neutrality has been abandoned in favour of paper tiger Nato, the long-held doctrine of a nuclear arms free Scandinavia has been quietly scrapped, and bases all round the country made available to US forces, over which Sweden has no control. When you look at how stupid the likes of Kallas, Baerbock and VDL act, Swedish politicians shout ‘hold my beer’. In the meantime, as welfare and similar budgets and expenditure are slashed, millions continue to be funnelled to Kiev.
Sweden is a wild case study that’s gotten memory-holed.
Sweden *was* the closest to the paleo-Democrat/Bernie dream of socialist-democracy. All thrown away in a slow motion revolution lasting 15 years.
And look what they did to Olof Palme.
The article below discusses the Swedish / Soviet submarine panic of the 1980s. The punchline is it was a fake panic that turned out to be as correct as the 1980s Dungeons and Dragons panic. They were largely NATO submarines, other than a Soviet Foxtrot sub that ran aground.
The fact that the intrusions were NATO submarines has been memory-holed.
https://olatunander.substack.com/p/the-submarine-war-against-sweden-fdc
Of course the Swedes were convinced that they were detecting the sounds of Russian submarines in their waters and were making all sorts of accusations against the Russians. That is, until marine experts stepped forward and had to explain that the sounds that the Swedish navy were picking up were actually the sounds of fish farting. And this happened not many years ago.
Ever since 1809 Sweden has been desperate for Russia to notice it some way, any way. In the 17th-18th centuries the Baltic Sea was practically a Swedish inner sea, so it was very rude from the Russian Empire/Soviet Union/Russia to not really give a crap about Sweden after beating the living daylights out of it.
Unpopular European leaders, Brussels and the Washington neocons are ratcheting up the pressure on Trump. He is unable to deal with it.
Hungary could have temporarily put a break on the EU plans, but also can’t deal with the pressure.
With news that there are 500 US troops in Taiwan, I am wondering when it will become expedient for China to openly join with Russia and Iran in announcing an alliance.
The pysops in US/UK/EU is such that the hope that there will be a popular rejection of war is too optimistic.
Its not looking good.
This is a very interesting problem. Whether or not the Trump administration could have abandoned Project Ukraine on day 1, they didn’t, and it looks increasingly unlikely that they will now, since the strategy of “let’s freeze the conflict, declare victory, and exit stage left” has clearly failed.
So, what now? The collective west is running low on munitions, the Kiev regime is running low on people, but neither is willing to give up. Seems like a strange end game is certain.
I would argue that most of the spending increase was the result of “Pivot to Asia” which was announced in 2012 under Obama rather than Ukraine. While money was being spent on Ukraine, US has been spending billions just for rebuilding old bases on the Pacific islands and in the Philippines.
I get that because of the war there is a tendency to focus on Ukraine, but my impression is that Ukraine was always a sideshow compared to Asia and specifically since the sacking of Nuland, there is little appetite for spending money on Ukraine in the US establishment.
Following the Maidan coup, the CIA created a full blown Ukrainian army in Ukraine to attack Russia with. This meant training and arming it. Additionally, the CIA built either 11 (New York Times) or 20 (Scott Ritter) facilities in Ukraine for the range of the purposes that the CIA is engaged in.
I considered your thesis in writing the article. Several empirically-based accounts, meaning that they were based on official data, traced the bulk of discretionary appropriations to Ukraine. But these don’t account for enough of the rise in military appropriations to settle the issue.
If the CIA was able to fund its build-out in Ukraine with hidden funds, that supports the thesis here. And if it used the discretionary military budget to do so, that supports the thesis here as well.
With $900 billion in discretionary military funds to squander in 2025, and again in 2026, there is enough to fund multiple misguided wars, irrespective of the fact that the US weapons stockpile is rumored to be running low.
Money cannot magically transform themselves in competent workforce, increased number of production lines of various sorts, and increase production.
Last year Stoltenberg was saying that Russia produces 3 times more than all NATO and allies put together. Now Rutte has changed that saying that Russia produces 4 times more than the western combine.
Russia is just loath to loose people so will try to invent its way to victory while having minimum number of casualties.
It might not be either/or, but part of the same long-term strategy.
Whether a coincidence or not, the situation unfolded much as Zbig laid out in the Grand Chessboard. I believe he was the one who coined “pivot to Asia”. (influenced by Mackinder)
The Ukraine must be “pried away” from Russia in order to prevent Russia from becoming a great power again.
Russia may not be a ‘great power’ in the economic sense, but militarily it can easily defend its borders with high quality military capacity and project accurate destruction anywhere on the planet. It is a great power; if not the most powerful. It has shown itself to be quite capable at developing a culture of invention, expertise, and cohesion.
Russia has the fourth largest economy in the world while in population is on the 9th place. And its economy it is mostly real…
Repeat of Rheinland and Germany? (France was big on “Natural Frontiers,” ie a France that includes the Rheinland and, possibly, the low countries, for a long time–they didn’t really give it up until 1950s). Especially if the “Russian Problem” is really the repeat of the “German Problem”…
Since the previous administration provoked the war the headline should say “the US must accept defeat” for it to stop. Trump has said it’s “not my war” and that’s a good first step but since when is any war “his” war or Biden’s war? Giving presidents and especially senile old guy presidents this sort of power is nuts.
Time to give up on the hegemon. Many of us out in flyover will be fine with it.
I’m starting took look at the Presidency as the ultimate oligarch’s ambassadorship. The office has been given extra powers, but also has to go through an extended period of public hazing (“elections”) with the help of teams of consultants and PR firms.
The trouble is that the oligarchs are putting increasingly deranged people in the big ambassador chair, and there will come a point when one them gets off the leash and runs amok. We’re not quite there with Trump (yet), but somebody has to be watching him and keeping him under control all the time or who knows what could happen. At least the team of puppeteers controlling the demented political hack that preceded Trump must have been in accord about what strings to pull and they were able to only roll him out when they needed the front man to serve that function. And that situation was messy enough. Looking at the caliber of politicians we’re producing, it’s hard to believe this is going to improve.
I think Trump seethe the conflict in Ukraine as a result of Biden and Democrats being cheese eating surrender monkeys (from The Simpsons 1995). Trump expected to say, “arble garble, America, tanks!” and have Putin make a deal that would show.
Now, Trump doesn’t have an inkling about what to do. He is going to huff and puff (trying to get Barron that transfer to Harvard).
Those us in ‘flyover’ country (and elsewhere) should get ready for reduced prosperity as the hegemon’s ‘reserve currency’ status and huge debt comes due.
“the US botched its transition from the industrial monopoly position it held following WWII, having the only intact industrial economy in the world”
The monstrosity the US unleashed from that opportunity is damning. It has condemned the world, and for that, it shall be condemned.
Well, I suppose another reason why you’ll see Jesus at your local State Fair before any military spending cuts are made, too much of it is spread all over the US. To cut it will elicit screams of losing jobs.
Below is the DoD report on defense spending per state.
https://oldcc.gov/sites/default/files/2024-12/oldcc_dsbs_fy2023_final_web_20240929.pdf
The proxy war to kick Russia out of Sebastopol has been going on since the Charge of the Light Brigade, and far from abating appears to be accelerating.
I have no doubt that the drone swarm launched against President Putin’s helicopter was directed by the British using U.S. signals and intelligence data. Trump probably wasn’t consulted but he must have been informed in advance based on the way he appears to be projecting on social media. This was a massive escalation.
We now have the further escalation of Chancellor Fred Merz announcing a “partnership” to “jointly” produce long range missiles with which “Ukraine” may strike deep into Russia using NATO targeting data and support. Will Russia ignore this artifice by the country that killed millions of Russians in living memory? Not bloody likely if you read the tweets of former President Dmitry Medvedev.
Anyone who thinks this is ending is getting high on their own supply. We are living in the world imagined by George Orwell.
Trump lied about stopping the proxy war in 24 hours!
As if any reasonable person can believe the ridiculous, contradictory lies of a mentally-ill, serial conman. I promise to bring back jobs to ‘murka.
I promise to end all the wars. Grocery prices will plummet. Unicorns and rainbows will be ubiquitous. I’m the greatest ever human in the history of the world! I’m your Lord and Saviour! No need for facts, just believe and pay the money!
If Reuters is right and Mr. Putin is demanding the Western leaders to provide a written agreement not to enlarge NATO as a condition for peace, is it a “proxy” war anymore?
And could Russia trust any agreement, with the “force of law” or not, to be observed by the US and vassals?
I don’t think that is the point of his alleged demand. It’s more about NATO having to come out of the shadows and decide whether Russia can impose it’s will upon NATO, or will this be the hill to fight for. In either case, expect NATO to rip itself apart.
And of course, while it underlines the fact that The West is mostly “agreement incapable” and not to be trusted for the Global South, it also signals to the Russian population what the SMO is about.
“We are living in the world imagined by George Orwell.”
I think this is straight up Fahrenheit 451.
Remember the robot dogs that helped hunt people that were keeping books?
The large televisions filling the walls and the type of entertainment?
Huxley’s Soma makes it appearance, as well…
I can’t help but think that the massive wealth, created by the laboring billions, could build so many amazing things. We could have a world of beauty and grace, no hunger or want, we might even travel to the stars.
Instead, we have vulgar everything: AI slop, grasping morons in the highest positions of power, and and botoxed trophy wives scheming to be hot or not. What a world.
The history of capitalism’s serial conning has yet to end.
I think Steve Bannon would agree with you. First minute and a half or so plus his advice to Trump on Ukraine and mineral deals.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1OIK9PVxNk&pp=ygUjc3RldmUgYmFubm9uIGdldCBhd2F5IGZyb20gVWtyYWluZSA%3D
Isn’t Trump demonstrating ‘transference: Trump can’t be crazy, so Putin must be crazy. This is akin to Ukraine reporting a million Russian casualties, when thiose are really Ukraine’s. In addition, in my opinion, ‘Trump’s internal logic follows the following model: Trump is infalliable and no one can resist his charms. If someone doesn’t recognize that Trump is infalliable and that he has irresistable charms, then that person must be crazy. Putin doesn’t seem to think that Trump is infalliable and has irresitable charms, therefore Putin must be crazy.
Trump, as usual, looks to impale himself of the horns of a dilemma. If he escalates, then he fails as a deal maker (if he can’t ‘force’ Russia to the table). If he muddles along, he will be described as Biden like.
I think it’s important to understand that many people, including Robert Urie and readers of NC, are better informed about Ukraine than President Trump and that is a serious problem. For example, during an interview on Neutrality Studies, Prof Jeffrey Sachs said, “You have the sadly preposterous scenario where Ukraine sent hundreds and hundreds of drones to attack Moscow….and when Russia retaliated the president wrote that ‘Putin is absolutely crazy.’” I don’t think Trump’s comment was preposterous because, during a subsequent press q&a, Trump indicated he was not aware of these Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia and the possibility of an assassination attempt on Putin.
I disagree with Yves that Trump “feigned ignorance” and what should be a major concern for all of us, imo, is that Trump is not being properly briefed, he is unaware of important facts on the ground and he has allowed himself to be more or less isolated from more honest informed sources.
Undoubtedly, Trump likes juggling lots of balls from immigration to Harvard, tariffs, Gaza, deals in the ME, tax cuts, and on. I think he wants a peace deal in Ukraine but he has surrounded himself with people who want him to remain ignorant.
It’s bad if he knew all about it and bad if it he didn’t know anything about it.
That’s a confirmation that this does not end well.
Continuity of the agenda of the oligarchy
Any conception of what Trump might “want” in Ukraine is so malleable and contingent as to be effectively meaningless; given that, continued war in various guises is the likely default.