Yves here. Trump is such a chaos generator that it’s hard to keep up with all the damage he is trying to do. He’s in the process of completing his trade “deals.” Trump seems to have a crude hierarchy of punishment, with an official level of 15% being the least abusive and (so far) 50% the highest…to be inflicted on Brazil, a particular focus of Trump ire, explicitly due to its prosecution of Trump bestie Jair Bolsonaro. Oh, and there aren’t valid trade grounds for tariffs since Brazil runs a surplus with the US.
But it turns out that 50% level for Brazil that Trump got into the headlines is a headfake. From Bloomberg in Lula’s Defiance Pays Off as Trump Blinks on Brazil Tariffs:
Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s defiant response to Donald Trump’s 50% tariff threat was validated Wednesday — at least in the short term — with markets and businesses breathing a collective sigh of relief at the long list of exemptions to the levies.
Some of Brazil’s biggest exports to the US, from civilian aircrafts to orange juice, won’t face increases beyond the 10% rate previously imposed, softening the blow of tariffs Trump now plans to implement next week instead of Friday.
Oh, and these “deals” don’t even rise to the level of napkin doodles. From former ambassador Chas Freeman on Judge Napolitano, starting at 3:50″
Freeman: Well, there’s no diplomacy. Basically this administration is managing international relations through the equivalent of extortion, bullying threats.We’ve just seen this dramatically illustrated by the unequal treaties they’re called that Japan and the European Union have succumbed to. First of all, they’re not professionally reached. There is no text, there’s no agreed text on these trade deals. They’re entirely oral. They’re vague. They’re subject in both cases to additional American actions as yet unspecified with regard to specific categories of goods. Both basically Japan and the EU have been forced to accept u a 15% across the board tariff as a permanent condition of their relationship with the United their relationships with the United States….
[7:40] Napolitano: You said that these agreements have not been reduced to writing. How can you have an agreement of this magnitude not reduced to writing so we don’t know what’s in there?
Freeman: Well, they’re not agreements. That’s the point. They are capitulations by foreigners to bullying. Um there’s no meeting of the minds. There’s no mutual benefit. For example, Europeans are pointing out and by the way, they using the term unequal treaties to parallel the kind of impositions that were made on China in the 19th century by imperialist powers including us um which of course ended up causing a revolution in China, two revolutions in China and knocking China for a loop for almost 150 years. Europeans are saying, pointing out that they agreed that everything they sell to the United States will be subject to a 15% import tax by Americans but that and they will not they will not have any import tax on American imports imports from us. So they’ve given up um a lot of trade in return for absolutely nothing. Absolutely nothing.
Now to India. Our Jerri-Lynn would have been all over the fine points of India’s efforts to deal with Trump, but this has not been a focus of mine, so I can’t evaluate Korybko’s thesis. Since Trump likes to stomp on pretty much everyone and everything (except Mr. Market), his hostility towards India, which has engaged in the sin of refusing to ditch Russia so as to better toady up to the US, might be reason alone for Trump to make particularly nasty noises and bruit about a 25% tariffs threat. His anger and this action might also be the result of feeling cornered by Lindsay Graham, who has insisted on his bone-crushing secondary sanctions, which would be extremely damaging to the US, and claims he has enough votes to beat a veto. Perhaps the
Korybko suggests that there might be some geostrategic logic to what Trump is attempting with India. Reader sanity checks welcomed.
By Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based American political analyst who specializes in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the New Cold War. He has a PhD from MGIMO, which is under the umbrella of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Originally published at his website
If Trump’s tariffs don’t coerce India into becoming a US vassal, which the US would then exploit to coerce concessions from China in advance of its ultimate goal of restoring unipolarity, then he might settle for letting China subordinate India instead as part of the “G2”/“Chimerica” scenario.
Trump raged against India on Wednesday in a series of posts announcing his 25% tariff on its exports on the pretext of its trade barriers and close ties with Russia. He then announced an oil deal with Pakistan and predicted that “maybe they’ll be selling Oil to India some day!” His final post described India’s economy as “dead” and claimed that “We have done very little business with India” despite it being the fastest-growing major economy in the world and bilateral trade amounting to nearly $130 billion in 2024.
India’s Ministry of Commerce & Industry calmly responded to Trump’s tariff announcement by reaffirming its commitment to talks and declaring that the state “will take all steps necessary to secure our national interest”, which likely infuriated him since he probably expected Modi to anxiously call him. The favorable trade deal that he clinched with Japan last week and the totally lopsided one with the EU that followed emboldened him into playing hardball with India upon thinking that it’ll fall into line too.
The US wants India to open its agricultural and dairy markets, stop its massive import of discounted Russian oil, and rapidly diversify away from Russian military equipment. Complying with the first demand would be disastrous for the 46% of the Indian workforce employed in these industries, however, while the second would risk decelerating its economic growth and the third would make its security dependent on the US. The end result would therefore derail India’s rise as a Great Power and turn it into a US vassal.
Trump is hellbent on doing precisely that, which is the continuation of Biden’s policy, as explained below:
* 13 December 2022: “Will The US Sell India Out To China To Sweeten The Deal For A Sino-American New Détente?”
* 14 May 2025: “There Might Be A Method To The Madness Of Trump Unexpectedly Damaging Indo-US Ties”
* 16 May 2025: “Trump’s Desired Return To Bagram Airbase Could Reshape South Asian Geopolitics”
* 7 June 2025: “The US Is Once Again Trying To Subordinate India”
* 13 July 2025: “The US-Pakistani Rapprochement Could Have Far-Reaching Geostrategic Consequences”
These analyses will now be summarized for the reader’s convenience and placed in the current context.
In brief, India’s Russian-assisted rise as a Great Power hastens the coming of tri–multipolarity that’ll in turn help midwife complex multipolarity, which would greatly reduce the likelihood of ever restoring US-led unipolarity or the short-lived period of informal Sino-US bi-multipolarity (“G2”/“Chimerica”). Russia’s special operation and the West’s reaction to it revolutionized International Relations and created the opportunity for India to make up for lost time in becoming a Great Power with trulyglobal influence.
The US responded to these developments by attempting to subordinate India via election meddling, infowars, and dual geopolitical pivots to Bangladesh (whose prior long-serving leader it helped depose) and Pakistan to pile on the pressure in pursuit of this goal or to contain India if it still refuses to concede. Complementary elements of this pressure campaign include political support for Delhi-designated “Khalistani” separatists-terrorists and spring 2023’s violent ethno-religious unrest in Manipur.
If Trump’s tariffs don’t coerce India into becoming a US vassal, which the US would then exploit to coerce concessions from China in advance of its ultimate goal of restoring unipolarity, then he might settle for letting China subordinate India instead as part of the “G2”/“Chimerica” scenario. Either way, he doesn’t expect India’s rise as a Great Power to continue due to the zero-sum dilemma in which the tariffs were meant to place it between becoming the US’ or China’s vassal, but India might still surprise everyone.
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This particular brouha is because the other day they said they don’t want any F 35’s. Plus there are rumours in the Duma that cash should be stashed for August 8th and to expect interruptions to the internet. Obviously the US is going to try to punish Russia for being recalcitrant, hopefully no-one miscalculates.
I will repost here an astute analysis of the situation from the standpoint of the Indian ruling class, whose approach and attitude are made out to be in Indian national self-interest, but are anything but. Also, the opinion below sharply disagrees with the view that India is on course to be a great power, but for Trump. It’s easy to see why key players in the BRICS would like to boost a more favorable picture though:
https://rupe-india.org/aspects-no-87/what-explains-indias-response-to-trump/
Thanks for the article Xquacy. I am always bemused when I hear people talk about India becoming a superpower. It is basically a country run by Modi for its oligarchs, with a middle class that has developed through being an outsourced service centre for the West – now at threat from AI.
The problem for India, as this article hints at, is that it never went through a revolution like China; so when the British left, all that happened was that a comprador class of elites, stepped into the shoes of white colonial masters. And they have acted to consolidate their power and wealth ever since – without investing in education, healthcare and infrastructure that would enable the masses to develop. And with growing inequality, they focus the masses on Hindu chauvinism and displace discontent towards Muslims.
Now the oligarchs essentially live jet set lives styled upon white oligarchs, with children educated in the West and investments here; they have no interest in developing the masses. And the upper middle class, ditto have been educated in the west and have close relatives here, many of whom will have successful careers (in finance!).
The Russian oil trade and tariff implications are an interesting disruptor – but they will find a way around it, as the oligarchs will want to continue to profit from it, but not at the expense of being in the Western club.
India’s hostility to China is based on an inferiority complex – the fact that China overtook them (from behind) by far.
India may seek to appear to be non-aligned, through BRICS etc. But there is no way that India would break with the West. The elites – and middle class – aspire to be white.
I can’t see how India will develop without throwing out the oligarchs, which clearly will not happen.
“And the upper middle class, ditto have been educated in the west and have close relatives here, many of whom will have successful careers (in finance!).”
And software tech…
An update was posted yesterday by RUPE on their blog.
https://rupeindia.wordpress.com/2025/07/31/what-else-can-they-do/
They are the best.
Their link to IDRW.org on a F-35 deal is broken, but it is discussed by Bhadrakumar today, breaking a long absence on his part.
“Oh, and there aren’t valid trade grounds for tariffs since Brazil runs a surplus with the US.”
Perhaps you mean the converse?
And there is a missing sentence ending at:
“[…] and claims he has enough votes to beat a veto. Perhaps the”
Yeah that was obviously a mistake of fast writing. According to the NYT the US runs a 90 billion surplus with Brazil. Not that i like linking to that pay per view outlet.
If Trump thinks China can be coerced to join his side, he has gone past the delusional megalomaniac phase to reach “The Lunatic is on the Grass” phase.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFdkM40KOhE&list=RDQFdkM40KOhE
Pretty sure we skipped “on the grass” and went straight to “in my head”.
See you on the dark side of the moon, lol.
I think that this is all part of the Neocon push for American Hegemony in the 21st century which Trump has fully taken aboard. And this means that an American hegemony can never accept a peer nation or group of nations much less a superior one. Consider. He is helping finish off the EU as a force in world politics, has tried to wreck the Russian Federation and bring them to their knees, is gearing up for a brawl with China and using Taiwan as the excuse and is also going after the BRICS groups. India, being a rising power, is no different. He wants to kneecap their development by making them dependent on American energy, food and weapons while letting Wall Street wreck chaos in that country. His stated aim is to have the countries of the world move their factories and facilities to the US lest he punish them but when you think about it, is an attempt to de-industrialize the developed world. All countries will just be sources of needed materials and will be denied the capability to refine and add value to them before shipping it to the US. So in this context, India became a target for the high crime of developing as a nation. It was always going to be this way.
From the Freeman interview:
“First of all, they’re not professionally reached. There is no text, there’s no agreed text on these trade deals. They’re entirely oral. They’re vague. They’re subject in both cases to additional American actions as yet unspecified with regard to specific categories of goods. Both basically Japan and the EU have been forced to accept u a 15% across the board tariff as a permanent condition of their relationship with the United their relationships with the United States….”
If there’s no agreed text and only a vagueness, then how is anybody being forced to do anything? Help me out there…
Begs the question “What’s a handshake deal with Uncle Sam worth these days?” Paging James Baker…
And this in links today:
Tokyo Says: If We Don’t Put Anything in Writing, We Don’t Have to Fulfill Trump’s Demands – Japan Economy Watch
It’s at this point where we need to remind ourselves that in the USA, politicians are engaged in continuous 24/7 fundraising and campaign rhetoric.
The only things that actually happen will benefit some wealthy donor(s).
Maybe Trump and Co. are more obvious about taking their cuts up front rather than on the back end.
Once upon a time some gunboats and strongly implied threats would have done the job. Thankfully the US military is decrepit enough that no longer holds without qualifications. The Europeans seem to have bent themselves backwards to become an US protectorate, though, so not much to say on that point.
Climate change will be enough to derail India’s rise as a Great Power. Trump’s hostility to environmental action is more effective than any of the schemes explored by Korybko.
This is from 2021.
https://cdn.odi.org/media/documents/ODI-JR-CostClimateChangeIndia-final.pdf
The costs of climate change in India: A review of the climate-related risks facing India, and their economic and social costs
This is from 2025:
https://www.indiawaterportal.org/climate-change/heatwaves-landslides-rising-seas-how-indias-climate-is-spiraling-in-real-time
It is the huge elephant in the room, climate change. I picture the pachyderm standing in the Oval Office, off to the side, with all the scheming lieutenants knowing not to look at it. I think all this flurry of tariffs is their admission they have nothing else left to try.
Coal! Jeezus
“Beautiful clean coal”, dontcha know.
In order to appreciate India’s position, I think it’s necessary to imagine that Canada is a nuclear armed economic powerhouse and Mexico is also a nuclear power.
India is sandwiched between China and Pakistan, both nuclear powers, and the latter is hardly friendly and the former is economically engaged with Pakistan.
Second, I’m not convinced India is ready and able to adapt its economic success into a strategy to enter the multipolar ranks anytime soon.
Whether India buys military equipment from Russia or the US hardly matters. If it gets into a fight their suppliers might not be so keen to get involved, like Trump is supposedly giving up on Ukraine.
Fortunately, India gets its Russian oil via shadow tankers so that there’s no pipelines for Trump to bomb.
Undoubtedly, India is on the verge of becoming an economic power but, imo, its without much depth to seriously influence the global stage any time soon.
The theory the author outlines is certainly plausible, not least of all because it likely would be desirable to many in China where, contrary to the tired narratives of some multipolaristas,
India is not the only country where the middle class have reactionary tendencies and a pro-western orientation. The nationalist passions inflamed by ongoing border disputes likely only amplify the willingness of these groups to put India on its heels with Trump’s help.
Of course the massive qualifier here is that the Chinese government is exceedingly patient, and AFAIK would see this as self-defeating in the long run. Already ASEAN and African countries are hyper-sensitive to perceptions of Chinese imperialism (however unfair or distorted that perception may be). Unfortunately the author doesn’t detail how here, but now purposely subordinating a massive GS economy would likely be disastrous for a state that lacks the structural power the US has. If anything, years of de-development in the rest of the GS will likely put pressure on China to support greater redistribution of public goods, and the rebalancing of trade with countries like Mexico and India that have huge trade deficits with it.
So maybe a G2 is Trump’s plan. But even if many wealthy and influential layers of Chinese society favour some kind of concert with the US, the communist party has demonstrated a remarkable capacity to regenerate its political authority by virtue of its conservative posture, and so it’s far from certain that China would agree to such a radical plan.
And contrary to the claims of one of the commentators on this article, Vijay Prashad has spoken previously about how many of the oligarchs were actually opposed to the 1993 liberalization, and more recently there are reports that the softening signals around India’s restrictions on Chinese investments are motivated partly by Indian industry, who want greater latitude to pursue joint ventures with Chinese firms.
That’s not to say the oligarchs are good, but rather that the reductive and dismissive tendency of some multipolarity advocates to treat India solely as a counterfactual to China causes them to overlook the actual politics of the country they rush to criticize. This article was refreshing in that respect, by acknowledging that US meddling is fluid and opportunistic, and that ethnonationalist, western-leaning elites capable of sabotaging regional partnership exist on both sides. China keeps theirs largely muzzled, but the US would happily see them empowered if it meant turning China into Cambodia (no offence to Cambodia, just referring to the political evolution of the ruling party there)
I would like to believe that there is a calculated purpose to all this madness, but sadly I don’t see it. Trump is just a powerful wrecking ball with an oversized but very fragile ego, and, is the proverbial “bull in a china shop”.
As president, he’s been given some very powerful toys to play with, and is clearly enjoying using them to create havoc, under the feeble fantasy of making his collapsing country ‘great’ again – not understanding, at all, the consequences of any of his actions.