Links 10/11/2025

Surprise: Fog in March. Louis enjoys his morning kayaking YouTube (resilc). A soothing oldie.

This Creamy Pasta Trick Just Earned Scientists an Ig Nobel Prize SciTech Daily (Chuck L)

7 Awkward Things Intense Exercise Might Do to Your Body ScienceAlert (Chuck L)

#COVID-19/Pandemics

Climate/Environment

Earth’s largest ocean current is grinding to a halt: Crucial system is now flowing three times slower than it was 130,000 years ago Daily Mail

How extreme temperatures strain minds and bodies: a Karachi case study PreventionWeb

Photos capture devastation after hydropower dam bursts in northern Vietnam VNExpress

China?

China’s property slump this year is looking much worse than expected, S&P says CNBC

China’s Had Enough… Xi Calls Trump’s Bluff Larry Johnson. Conor featured the underlying tweet on the Chinese policy change. Johnson’s commentary suggests word is getting out.

China Is Going To Leave The US What America Left Britain: Nothing Ian Welsh

Trump puts extra 100% tariff on China imports, adds export controls on ‘critical software’ CNBC (Kevin W)

24 Hours in The Worlds LARGEST City | Chongqing, China YouTube. resilc: “Our dumbass presidente should watch this and then unconditionally surrender to China.”

* * *

Taiwan’s president pledges to accelerate the building of air defense system in face of China threat Independent

The Recent Sino-US Dispute Over Taiwan’s Post-WWII Status Is A Sign Of The Times Andrew Korybko

Southeast Asia

Villagers bolster bunkers as Thai-Cambodian tensions rise The Nation Thailand

Africa

A Spiralling Security Crisis in the Sahel Will Force Algeria’s Hand World Politics Review

Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of preparing for war as Red Sea tensions rise BBC

South of the Border

Venezuela asks UN Security Council for emergency session over US military actions in the Caribbean Independent

Why we need to take Trump’s Drug War very seriously Responsible Statecraft (resilc)

Ecuador’s Noboa faces escalating protests over rise in diesel costs Aljazeera

European Disunion

Macron reappoints Lecornu as French PM after days of turmoil BBC. I thought Macron was trying to get a center-left stooge to get on his bridge to nowhere. Will Lecornu decide to fail faster this time? Or will Macron actually relent on his budget demands? Regardless, if Macron can’t form a government and can’t get anyone credible in the French political elite to take the job, what next? I would assume that would force elections.

From Politico’s European newsletter:

President Emmanuel Macron spent much of the week walking up and down the Seine River making calls and proving that French politics is so much moodier than anyone else’s. He ends the week, of course, right back where he started, when on Friday evening he reappointed Sébastien Lecornu as prime minister still with no government around him.

Reality of Trump’s Tariffs Starts to Show in German Trade Data Bloomberg

Sahra Wagenknecht demands “to full review of the results” of the recent German Bundestag election International Affairs (Micael T)

Why Germany is being humiliated by Poland Vzgylad (Micael T)

Could France’s political turmoil spark eurozone debt crisis? DW

‘A fatal blow’: Italian producers fear effects of Trump’s ‘war against pasta Guardian

Low Hydro Stocks in Norway Risk Tighter European Power Market Bloomberg

Old Blighty

Inside the UK’s Energy Price Crisis OilPrice

National security threatened by climate crisis, UK intelligence chiefs due to warn Guardian

Cider ‘too potent for pubs’ after apple harvests hit by heatwave Telegraph

Israel v. The Resistance

Important:

How two years of war have shattered the Gaza Strip Sky

Israel agrees to another one of those ceasefires where Israel does not cease firing Council Media (resilc)

How to End the War in Gaza for Good Dennis Ross, Foreign Affairs. Robin K: “AIPAC backing down? Nah! Head-fake.”

US imposes new sanctions on Iranian petroleum exports Financial Times

New Not-So-Cold War

SITREP 10/10/25: Lights Out in Kiev as Putin “Hardens His Heart” Simplicius

Russia launched a “massive” attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on Friday morning Telegraph

On Russian Strikes Targeting Ukrainian Gas Infrastructure Amerikanets. Good detail on Ukraine’s supply options.

EU could fail to strike deal on frozen Russian assets – media RT (Kevin W)

Melania Trump says she has established communication channel with Putin over abducted Ukrainian children Ukrainska Pravda

Russian Stocks Suffer Sharpest Single-Day Drop in 3 Years Moscow Times

Scott Ritter vs. John Helmer: NATO and Russia on the Brink of Disaster Dialogue Works, YouTube. Important tidbit about Putin-Netanyahu call at 1:05:25.

Syraqistan

Regional powers signal objection to US reclaiming Afghanistan’s Bagram base Aljazeera

For war-weary Syria, potential benefits of security pact with Israel comes with big risks The Conversation

Big Brother is Watching You Watch

RondoDox botnet fires ‘exploit shotgun’ at nearly every router and internet-connected home device The Register

Trump 2.0

Interior cancels largest solar project in North America Politico (Kevin W)

This mysterious DOE ‘hit list’ has the clean-energy Canary Media (Chuck L)

Criminal charges against Bolton expected as early as next week MSNBC (resilc)

Tylenol use after circumcision ‘highly likely’ linked to autism, RFK Jr. says in wild new claim New York Post (resilc). When you’ve lost the Post…

Immigration

Immigrants Who Tried to Self-Deport with Trump’s CBP Home App Are Stuck in America ProPublica (Robin K)

Shutdown

HHS employees to be fired as White House enacts mass terminations it blames on shutdown STAT

Trump Admin Threatens to Fire “Problem Children” in Air Traffic Control Walkouts – WGAE to Fight Bari Weiss CBS News Takeover – LA Times Reporters Authorize Strike Mike Elk. The Hill has pointed out that air traffic control (as in the damage to air travel) was what forced Trump to relent in the last shutdown.

The FAA’s 40-year staffing hangover from Reagan’s mass firings just got worse Boing Boing (resilc)

Tariffs

Important:

Retail Prices Were Heading in the Right Direction—Then Tariffs Hit Working Knowledge (resilc)

Democrat Death Wish

Why Not Take Over the Hollowed-Out Democratic Party? Les Leopold

Our No Longer Free Press

He Wrote a Book About Antifa. Death Threats Are Driving Him Out of the US Wired (Robin K)

Conservative distrust of journalism threatens to spread among liberals Kansas Reflector. Robin K: “Looks like this J-prof’s snooze is over. Center-right are “liberals” in Kansas–and likely throughout the midwest and plains state.”

Facing dismissal over Kirk comment, teacher cites pro-GOP posts by superintendent Iowa Capital Dispatch (Robin K)

Mr. Market is Moody

IMF chief warns ‘uncertainty is the new normal’ in global economy Guardian

Fears rise over $3tn shadow banking crisis Telegraph

Ray Dalio Warns of Soaring Debt and ‘Civil War’ Brewing in US Bloomberg

Economy

Roughly half of U.S. states are effectively in a recession and ‘hanging on by their fingertips,’ Moody’s chief economist says Fortune. Zandi has a bullish bias.

The Bezzle

Elon Musk’s Satellites Now Constantly Falling Out of the Sky Futurism

Class Warfare

Marxism and the History of Philosophy Monthly Review (Robin K)

Why You Don’t Feel Rich A Wealth of Common Sense. resilc: “One gal of distilled water went from 1.23 to 1.37 at walmeurto in 2 week period.”

Antidote du jour (via):

And a bonus (Chuck L):

A second bonus (Chuck L):

And a third (Chuck L):

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.

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15 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    “Sahra Wagenknecht demands “to full review of the results” of the recent German Bundestag election”

    They’d show her but unfortunately those results have been classified and declared to be subject to national security interests. You have to hand it to the present German leadership. They took the subject of elections in Germany, which seemed to be pretty mundane, and have now undermined them and put election results under suspicion. That’s great work that. Way to go. /sarc

    Reply
  2. Ben Panga

    Inside tech billionaire Peter Thiel’s off-the-record lectures about the antichrist (Guardian)

    Detailed analysis of the nonsense Thiel has been spouting.

    Complements the Wired article posted previously (I think in one of Nat’s articles) which had more background but less granular analysis.

    Surprised to see Thiel criticizing Andreessen

    During a question-and-answer session, Thiel was asked to respond to a quote from fellow investor Andreessen – a name he audibly bristled at. He said Andreessen was engaged in hyperbole and “gobbledygook propaganda” when it comes to the promises of AI.

    “Where should I start? I’m tempted to be triggered in some nasty ad hominem argument, but I can’t resist so I’ll do that. I don’t know, this is just pure Silicon Valley gobbledygook propaganda. I wouldn’t give someone who said things like that too much money to invest.”

    He’s not wrong on that bit.

    It’s very tempting to armchair analyse Thiel as 1. Insane 2. On some level believing himself to be the Antichrist due to the cognitive dissonance between being gay and his extremely religious upbringing and continued beliefs.

    I wouldn’t want to get Gawkered (or droned) though, so I’ll resist :)

    Reply
  3. Ben Panga

    A Worthy Nobel Peace Laureate (Brett “not a bedbug” Stephens / NYT)

    Full throated call for regime change:

    That leaves the option to which the Trump administration seems increasingly inclined: regime change….

    …But that in turn requires a willingness by the Trump administration to continue to escalate, up to the point of a full-scale military confrontation.
    That would entail unquestionable and deadly risks, to Venezuelans and Americans alike. It might also put Trump’s long-coveted Nobel Peace Prize permanently out of reach.
    Then again, there are greater peace prizes than the Nobel — a prize never won by Winston Churchill, Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman or other world-historical figures who knew that the path to peace can’t always lie through peace alone. If the sacrifice Trump must make for putting an end to the horror of the Maduro regime is forgoing the prize for himself, he can take solace in the fact that Machado dedicated her prize to “the suffering people of Venezuela and to President Trump for his decisive support.”

    Now is the time to act.

    Reply
  4. Ben Panga

    Re: Tylenol use after circumcision ‘highly likely’ linked to autism, RFK Jr. says in wild new claim

    Slightly tangential but I’ve never understood why American boys are circumcised. We have soap and showers. The only thing I can come up with is that it’s Puritan desensitizing of the dangerous members.

    Reply
      1. Ben Panga

        Hehe that’s a good one. You made me laugh in the midst of depression, thank you!

        But from that link:

        Still, the risks of not being circumcised are rare. The risks also can be lowered with proper care of the penis.

        Literally just wash it!

        This isn’t the 1800s

        Reply
    1. Donaldo

      It started with the goal of preventing masturbation, and then kept going because of inertia of the system. First one is dumb, second one is dumber, but the dumbest are excuses to keep it going. Gods work in mysterious ways, especially when genital mutilation of kids is concerned.

      Reply
  5. Bugs

    Saw that the French 15 and 20 year bonds are at around 3.80 and were over 4.00 in September. Maybe they should run a test and denominate them in francs, just for the lolz.

    Reply
  6. eg

    “Why You Don’t Feel Rich”

    Because 90% of Americans AREN’T?

    Constantly increasing inequality will do that, eh?

    Reply
  7. The Rev Kev

    “On Russian Strikes Targeting Ukrainian Gas Infrastructure”

    Lots of excellent details in this post plus a side serving of karma. A coupla months ago Zelensky was hitting the Druzhba oil pipeline in Bryansk and cutting flows of gas to both Hungary and Slovakia. When they protested, Zelensky got really nasty and was mocking them but hard because the EU was letting him getting away with it. Why yes, it was a case of a non-EU state attacking two 2 EU member States but the EU deciding to back the non-EU State. But because of the Russian attacks, Zelensky is going to have to import huge amounts of pipeline gas and about half of it is going to have to go through Hungary. What happens if Hungary pulls a Ukraine and diverts gas for their own needs first?

    Reply
  8. Yves Smith Post author

    Thank you for early readers holding fire. A regular submitted an antidote bonus which turned out to be AI generated, I have removed it and replaced it with one that is hopefully bona fide.

    What annoys me is the frequency with which readers send Twitter animal vids (which presumably did not have AI alerts at the time of e-mailing them) where I look at them hours to many many hours later and generate an embed code, only to see the alert ONLY AFTER THE POST WENT LIVE that it was fake.

    Twitter looks to be:

    1. Delaying notices on AI fakes so as to get them retweeted more

    2. Prioritizing putting them up on embeds because at the margin they want to keep views at Twitter and discourage views outside Twitter.

    Reply
  9. mrsyk

    File under Climate,

    Researchers find methane leaking out of cracks in Antarctic seabed, ABC News.

    That’s the Antarctic seabed, not the oft-discussed Arctic. The paper is published in Nature, Antarctic seep emergence and discovery in the shallow coastal environment. From the abstract,

    We establish the recent emergence of many of these seep features, based on their discovery in areas routinely surveyed for decades with no previous seep presence.

    Methane eruptions from the polar seabeds scaling up?

    Reply

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