Despite numerous claims by those who claimed to have an inside track (which sadly we did not question sufficiently) that a decision had been made to launch an attack on Iran, more or less by now, no such strike has occurred. Larry Johnson and John Kirakou were among those who said they had gotten word from highly connected sources; with the benefit of hindsight, with both being CIA-connected, their info could ultimately have come from the same person.1 Johnson, unlike a lot of commentators who play the “if you must forecast, forecast often” and pretend to have been consistent and correct over time when they have actually shifted their position, has admitted to error. We’ll soon discuss his latest assessment, where he more carefully calibrates the signs that a war launch is imminent.
Independent of the looming question of if and when Trump might hit Iran, there is as close as you ever seen to a media and commentary consensus that Trump has gotten himself into an impossible position: he either has to climb down, which would be a certain and huge loss of face and would enrage his Zionist and Christian evangelical backers, or proceed and risk an even more disastrous outcome, which is a military failure. One suspects that Trump has not been briefed on worst case outcomes, like a protracted closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the loss of an aircraft carrier, or Iran damaging Israel infrastructure to the degree that it becomes close to unlivable. Trump would face devastating domestic blowback merely from having a few helicopters go down in Iran and having their crews die or be captured, or Iran merely killing dozens in strikes on US bases in the Middle East. A map from the Financial Times illustrates how these outposts are well with Iran’s range:
The inflammatory remarks by Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, that it would be fine if Israel took all of the land it sees as its Biblical entitlement, and special envoy Steve Witkoff saying that the President did not understand why Iran had not capitulated, says that Trump and perhaps the military and CIA assess Iran as far less potent than the independent media community believes. The fact that Iran and the US had to negotiate a stand-down to end the 12 Day War is a proof of sorts that Iran still had plenty of firepower it had yet to unleash. Even before getting to the additional surveillance and air defense support being rushed in by Russia and China, Iran has also been adding to its missile and drone stocks since that short conflict. By contrast, the US is overcommitted and is the weapons version of a leaky bathtub, with new production going significantly if not entirely to Project Ukraine due to existing contract commitments.
Whether the US goes to war with Iran will reveal the true extent of Zionist and Christian evangelical power. The fact that Trump has so visibility committed so much firepower to a possible attack does not prevent him from a making a sudden reversal. Trump more than anyone could simply and loudly scapegoat others for giving him bad advice that he wisely chose to ignore, saving American lives and treasure.
What constrains Trump is the devil’s bargain he has made with Zionists and Christian evangelicals. Will he stay bought?
And does the weekend invasion attempt at Mar-a-Lago remind him that his personal downside extends beyond a mere mid-term wipeout due to the Israel lobby not just abandoning the Republicans but even working against them to reassert their clout?
Max Blumenthal, in a recent interview with George Galloway, laid out why Israel remains committed to wrecking Iran, as opposed to considering growing up and acting like a normal country that gets along with its neighbors. Blumenthal confirmed that Isreali leaders are recognizing what we said in an earlier post, that the window for the US and Israel to subdue Iran is closing and may actually have passed.
Israel learned in the 12 Day War that its air defenses cannot withstand a sustained drone and missile attack from Iran, hence its demand that Iran prostrate itself by getting rid of pretty much anything in its arsenal that could reach the settler colony. Comments privately and in the comment section from those who have contacts in Israel suggest that Israeli citizens, and presumably also most of its leaders, still believe the US is dominant, or at least dominant enough to beat Iran in a war. IMHO this is rank bigotry but regardless, the Israeli belief in US/Israel combined superiority is a big factor in the pressure to have a showdown now.
Other factors arguing for action sooner rather than later, in addition to from the cost of the US maintaining so many forces in theater for very long (it has stripped down air cover in the Pacific, for instance) are the looming midterms, Trump’s early April summit with Xi (Trump would likely have to back out if a conflict were in full swing) and Iran’s potential to improve its relative position even with weeks or months of delay due to Russian and Chinese assistance and its own efforts. On the latter front, one spooky contact argues that the presence of a Chinese spy ship near Iran is a thorn in Israel’s side. Subs are one of the main places where Israel keeps its nuclear arsenal.
Many experts point out that the US airforce prefers to attack in the dark of the moon, and that window won’t come again until mid-March. But with radar, it’s not clear that that preference warrants as much weight as did in the days of yore. It seems inconceivable that the US could manage the stress on its other operations and maintaining personnel on a war-ready footing past a mid-March launch date. But mid-March conflicts with the Xi summit unless Trump has managed to talk himself into the fantasy that he can pound Iran for a week or two and walk away with no or few consequences. So based on my amateur take, it would seem that attacking in the next day or two would be the best of Trump’s not great options if he felt he could not afford to defy the Zionist faction. Trump’s pause due to his Sunday sessions giving the war skeptics the opportunity to show Trump that a win was far from certain will lead the Israel backers to redouble their pressure on him.
From Israel’s perspective, the mid-terms create an even bigger sense of urgency than for Trump. A Republican loss in the House seems baked in. Trump can expect to face yet another impeachment. It seems inconceivable that even the egomaniacal Trump would launch a war when his authority had been so blunted and he was having to fight again for political survival.
The super embarrassing potty problems on the aircraft carrier, the Gerald Ford, allegedly keeping sailors in queue for hours, do not seem to be a big an impediment to launching an attack on Iran. In fact, some experts argue the naval show of force is much more of a liability to combat operations than an asset, since they are big fat targets with limited strike capabilities.
Trump nevertheless keeps insisting that he is The Decider:
Trump: “Everything that has been written about a potential War with Iran has been written incorrectly, and purposefully so. I am the one that makes the decision, I would rather have a Deal than not but, if we don’t make a Deal, it will be a very bad day for that Country and, very… pic.twitter.com/UrGM9g5i0i
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) February 23, 2026
Larry Johnson describes how he got out over his skis and what signs would say that the US had gone into “war on” mode:
…there are two other key indicators that are not yet lighting up, which would signal an attack is imminent — i.e., NOTAMS and US embassies ordering some or all of its employees to depart the country. As of February 23, only US Embassy Beirut has ordered non-essential employees to depart, while the US embassies in the Gulf states remain intact.
NOTAMs (Notices to Air Missions) are real-time, constantly updated operational documents issued by aviation authorities. Here’s a summary of the current NOTAM/airspace warning picture for the Iran region, based on the most recent information available:
EASA CZIB 2026-02 R1 (issued 16 Jan 2026, valid to 31 Mar 2026): Operators should not fly within Iran’s Tehran FIR at any altitude. EASA cites the potential for U.S. military action placing Iranian air defenses on heightened alert, with an increased likelihood of misidentification. The presence of a wide range of weapons and air-defense systems, combined with unpredictable state responses and possible SAM activation, creates high risk at all altitudes.
Germany NOTAM B0082/26 (issued 10 Feb 2026, valid to 10 Mar 2026): German operators are recommended not to enter Tehran FIR due to hazardous situation and potential risk from escalating conflict and anti-aviation weaponry.
USA SFAR 117 (valid through 31 Oct 2027): All U.S. air carriers, commercial operators, and FAA certificate holders are prohibited from overflying the Tehran FIR due to the risk of misidentification and unannounced military activities.
Italy NOTAM E2877/25 (valid to 15 Mar 2026): Italian carriers advised to have robust risk assessments and contingency planning for any operations in Tehran FIR.
UK AIP ENR 1.1: Ongoing caution for UK operators.
Canada AIC 21/25: Ongoing warning dating back to the Jan 2020 shoot-down of Ukraine International Airlines flight 752.
As you can see, Germany is the only one recommending, not WARNING, German operators to steer clear of Tehran.
The paucity of embassies reducing non-essential personnel, coupled with the limited number of NOTAMs, makes it unlikely that the US will launch an attack imminently.
Nima, in a fresh talk with Johnson, pointed out that the US had told personnel to leave the embassy in Beirut, which Johnson said cold be significant. However, non-essential personnel at only one embassy seems less than dispositive:
The State Department ordered the evacuation of non-emergency personnel at the US embassy in Beirut on Monday, with tensions in the region running high amid expectations that President Trump may soon order large-scale airstrikes on Iran. https://t.co/KYmZV8VvK1
— Bloomberg (@business) February 23, 2026
I could write a great deal more from the various accounts of the White House debate over whether to go to war on Sunday. But the big finding there is that, as with the Iraq War, the military is concerned about downside, contrary to earlier reports (perhaps adeptly leaked by hawk?) that suggested more confidence.
But this internal struggle is still very much in play. We will soon see if Israel’s sway over US decisions is as great as many fear.
____
1 Back in my days as a consultant, I took care when reading literature searches to note the origin of key factoids. There is tendency to treat the weight information tidbit as 5x as well established when simply has been repeated in 5 separate outlets, as an equally consequential data point that was only picked up once.
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https://www.ndtvprofit.com/world/he-knows-how-to-win-will-lead-the-pack-trump-on-chairman-of-the-joint-chiefs-of-staff-general-dan-caine-11129099
General Caine apparently cautioned against such an adventure, before getting pushback from Trump.
It’s full blown info war. Someone might be trying to embarrass Caine with the leak. Someone might be trying to support Caine with the leak.
Insert Euripedes quote about discerning info (that I can’t definitely cite off the top of my head, so quote might be apocryphal)
I’m not sure I agree with that take. The slant from the New York Times, which was first out with the story and looks to have had good souring, said:
https://archive.is/JSDFx#selection-913.0-913.332
It look as if Vance, who has long been the least enthusiastic about war of any of Trump’s core team, interrogated Caine. Vance no doubt had worked out that Trump can’t have what he wants: a short and pretty much certain to succeed operation, and was able to get Caine to concede that that was the case.
Mind you, Caine likely delivered the same message in a more coded manner before and Vance was able to strip away pretenses to make the picture more (correctly) stark.
I always get this eerie deja vu from the Reagan years. That someone, after a serious meeting is held, needs to either draw simple pictures like a coloring book or present a puppet show so Trump can understand what’s being said.
Here’s Saager at Breaking Points making the case that this is our “Shinseki Moment” for our war with Iran:
Top Generals DIRE WARNING: Iran War Will Be Disaster
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30npitNUhfU
For those too young (or too old) to remember, Army Chief of Staff Gen. Shinseki testified to Congress that he disagreed with Secretary Rumsfeld about the number of troops required for the invasion of Iraq:
Gen. Eric Shinseki from 02.25.03
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_xchyIeCQw
He had already announced his retirement so it’s possible he was a bit more free with his answer. But given what happened in Iraq, he was right.
But wow, they actually had Congressional hearings about going to war? Where are these today? Is this all still happening because of AUMF?
I wonder what portion of America’s debt is due to the AUMF. At least $7 trillion, probably more. How about we pass Authorization For Free Heathcare, and never even worry about the cost. Is that possible?
“Trump nevertheless keeps insisting that he is The Decider”
This is actually one of the scarier pieces because we know his aging behavior includes being insanely impulsive. Once an order is given it will be extremely difficult to impossible to rescind it once assets are in play.
He keeps falling asleep in meetings so maybe he should take a nice nap instead of starting WW3. Also he may be staying up too late with his Twitter toy and Melania may have to take that away from him.
There’s been an air of unreality ever since Trump, giving his convention acceptance speech with a giant bandage on his ear, went over and kissed the fireman suit of the poor man who took a fatal bullet instead of him. The inaugural in the Rotunda was bizarre and then Trump became a kind of Energizer Bunny of bad ideas. All flippant remarks aside, here’s hoping reality finally prevails at least in this instance and more innocents won’t needlessly die even if Lindsey, his best buddy from down the DC street, may cry.
Trump and Witkoff, as has been revealed in a recent Witkoff interview, are flummoxed that Iran has not “capitulated” in light of the enormous US buildup in place. At the moment, if Iran is attacked, they can fight back against the US and Israel. But if they get rid of their ballistics program as demanded by Israel, errr, Trump, then that will absolutely guarantee that they will be attacked by the US & Israel and will be helpless to fight back. And yet Trump and Witkoff pretend that they do not understand this point. There is a viewpoint that Huckabee blabbing about the creation of a Greater Israel has helped spike this attack as it ruined all the coordination that the US was trying to get with the local Arab nations. The fact that Huckabee was never recalled indicates that the US is actually aligned with his ideas which the Arab States would have noted. Trump can get out of it by accepting the deal that Iran offered dealing with the nuclear issues and the trade issues which would be worth hundreds of billions to the US. I will however note one thing that must be on Trump’s mind. In the article “The Strategic Dilemma At the Heart of Iran’s Struggle” in today’s Links, there is a map of Iran if it could be broken up. One Statelet in the south is called Qashquaistan and it seems to map onto where most of Iran’s oil fields are. Guess who wants to run that place?
Rev Kev:
Important: “There is a viewpoint that Huckabee blabbing about the creation of a Greater Israel has helped spike this attack as it ruined all the coordination that the US was trying to get with the local Arab nations. The fact that Huckabee was never recalled indicates that the US is actually aligned with his ideas which the Arab States would have noted.”
But when richer and more powerful allies like Saudi Arabia and Turkiye notice this theological potty-mouthing, and then realize that the U S of A cannot be trusted on still one more level, who’s going to go to war so that Trump can get a souvenir turban?
I submit: This Huckabee mess is bigger than Trump will admit. Internationally and domestically.
I think this is emblematic of the “Epstein Class” that rules over Western countries; concepts like, “loyalty, “pride” and “honour” are completely foreign to them other than as rhetorical tricks to fool the plebes. They can’t understand normal people’s behavior because they are confusing how transnational globalist parasites like themselves think and act with how the rest of the world should act. And hence, they really think the descendants of Cyrus the Great are going to bend over and capitulate for some dickhead in a suit threatening them, seemingly completely oblivious to the fact that they have missiles too, you know?
This to me is the biggest scandal of all, literally a 10/10 diplomatic fire alarm. How does Huckabee still have a job???? Should have been fired immediately for a comment like that. They have neither fired him nor walked back such an incredibly inflammatory comment from an official representative of the US government. Imagine, if you will, being an American Arab “ally” having to eat sh*t for the past two years because of a completely unhinged Israel, having to burn so much domestic credibility and political capital on the relationship with Uncle Sucker, and then dropping a diplomatic bomb like this onto them.
Indeed. I am puzzled by this too. I mean, even if the intention is to let Israel take over all the Arab states eventually, you’d think they wouldn’t want to admit it at a time when they are very much depending on the forbearance of the quislings running said Arab states.
But then again, one of the hallmarks of Trump and crew is saying the quiet parts out loud, much to the chagrin of the Beltway denizens who would prefer to keep the base motivations for their schemes secret.
Huckabee being a hardcore Christian nutjob and all that implies cannot have come as a shock to the Gulf elites; it’s never been a secret and one assumes they’d do deep research into whoever was US ambassador to Israel.
That Huckabee is stupid enough to fall into Tucker’s gotcha trap looks bad, and necessitates strong words to appease their subjects. I do not think it will harm DJT or US’s relationships with the leadership class though. It’s not as if Huckabee has much power.
The other states in the region have been thinking Israel has been only going around picking daisies since 1948? Were the assassinations of leaders and expanding settlements some figment of the imagination?
Political malpractice – to put it mildly. Corruption – to put it more strongly.
As ever, I am going to hammer away at geography. The map above brought home some points to me. I never quite understood how narrow the Persian Gulf is. Note that 300 km is 186 U.S. miles. Note how much of Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, and even Oman (why bases in Oman?), are within that first curve.
A way of thinking of the Persian Gulf is, Who would want a war in the English Channel?
So the Straits of Hormuz (much like the Bab el Mandab off Yemen) prove that geography has some influence.
I also think that it may be sinking in among the generals and the armchair generals at the CIA, NSA, and White House that Iran is bigger than they imagine.
Closer to home:
1,972,550 km2 (761,610 sq mi) = Mexico
1,648,195 km2 (636,372 sq mi) = Iran
783,562 km2 (302,535 sq mi) = Turkiye (which is a big country)
So one can think of Iran as Mexico without Baja California, say. It gives pause.
Meanwhile, two other factors: First, the reaction to the theologically polluted Mike Huckabee has been telling, not that Huckabee, saved by his personal Jesus, will notice. But Tucker Carlson seems to have noticed how swirly Huckabee’s ideas of the Divinity as Real-Estate Broker are. As have the Saudis, Syrians, Iraqis, and Lebanese. Let alone the Iranians.
Meanwhile, I’d also point to the brewing mess that is the Board of Peace. Fatto Quotidiano published a recent interview with a professor of international law at University of Palermo named Pasquale de Sena in which he asserted that the Board of Peace (its pseudonym) has no legal standing, which also means that the Italian constitution in its “refutation of war” article 11 prohibits Italy from participation. The Vatican has already refused to be involved, insisting that the UN has to be in charge of the situation. Loretta Napoleoni in this blog post calls it a holding company of the powerful based on pay-to-play. The Italian government is desperately trying to straddle the fence, not so coincidentally.
Napoleoni:
https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2026/02/22/board-of-peace-trump-ordine-mondiale-oggi/8298495/
There is more going wrong with the plans at the White House than meets the eye.
The response is likely to be even more propaganda (and you thought that the Obama crew was devoted to propaganda) — Pete Hegseth doing pushups, Kristi Noem in a pushup bra that shoots bullets, Trump pushing the idea that he has the Mandate of Heaven.
Yves, great overview! Patamares, an Iranian weapons specialist, has a very interesting take of what is going on: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Y0OU6gvem8
Let’s not forget that last time there too were various leaks how Trump got out of Bibi’s hand and will do deal with Iran in defiance of Israel, which of course turned out to be deliberate lie. Presumably Iran will not be fooled by the same trick again and so there should be less incentive on US/Israel part to repeat such charade, but who knows. Maybe not even The Decider himself.
Also there is the possibility Israel will start the war on its own and hope it will drag US into it if things go badly.
If Israel tries that with conventional weapons, Iran may simply wipe out strategic stuff in Israel and not hit US assets. TACO suggest that Our Donald might not want to get involved.
For Israel to go alone, non-nuclear, it would have to be (preceded by) 5th column activity instead of conventional military action.
I don’t think we should sleep on the idea of an attack on Lebanon by the Israelis. Why?
1) Trump loves surprises
2) Bibi has unfinished business there, they’ve told the government to disarm Hezbollah and it hasn’t exactly taken place.
3) They’re all juiced up and ready to ‘do something’.
4) The US regional buildup would then function as a check to ensure that Iran doesn’t intervene if Israel launches a big wave of strikes on Lebanon and the IDF may/may not attempt to advance with ground forces to create a ‘buffer zone’.
5) It would give the Zios some red meat to chew on, since they aren’t getting their Iran war.
This is to be put in relation with the article referred to in NC links: Strikes push Lebanon’s ceasefire toward collapse.
Furthermore, in the past couple of months there were trips to Lebanon by officials from Europe and Lebanese ones to the USA, followed by declarations regarding the disarmament of Hezbollah. Finally, Israelis have been recently reinforcing their control of Syrian territory bordering and overseeing Lebanon.
You are probably right: something is brewing, and it is plausible that Israel will strike there while the attention worldwide is focused on the Persian Gulf instead.
There has been no ceasefire in Lebanon. This is why I can’t take the order to embassy staff in Beirut by itself as having wider implications
Could be further escalation (full sale ground invasion?). This would be interesting as Hizb’ullah was never actually beaten militarily, even if its political leadership was devastated. I figure that thry can still fight and their rockets are still there.
No, we are not moving ground forces into the theater. That is a six month lead time operation. And even then, we don’t have a big enough army.
This was my thought, too, about the embassy evacuation: that Israel will either attack the Lebanon unilaterally or will attack it in retaliation for Iranian strikes. “One false move and Beirut gets it…!”.
If the Gerald Ford is going to moor in Haifa as rumoured, the Iranians will have a sitting duck. Ergo the moment the Ford leaves port in Israel, we know it’s game on….
Consider though, you could have a major military ship with an atomic reactor powerplant sunk in Haifa harbour. A twofer if I ever saw one and possibly done by Hezbollah. I also wonder, can the Ford even enter the Port of Haifa? Is the port large enough, the roadstead deep enough?
Iran is historically concerned not to be the aggressor so I don’t think they will strike it preemptively, hence the comment that it will get to leave port and then we know it has begun….
Plus they don’t want to irradiate Lebanon!
That might actually create an out for trump at the same time reduce IOF to rubble. They got their asses kicked in 2006 when they fled like roaches after only 34 days. HZB fired almost 4k rockets into Occupied Palestine killing over 150 zionazis and wounding another 2600.
IOF are only capable fighting against unarmed civilians.
> Larry Johnson and John Kirakou were among those who said they had gotten word from highly connected sources; with the benefit of hindsight, with both being CIA-connected, their info could ultimately have come from the same person.
The way Witkoff reported Trump’s curiosity at Iran’s failure to capitulate suggested, I thought, they expected a military bluff to work. I suppose it’s possible that part of the bluff might involve leaking disinfo to people including Johnson and Kirakou. I’ve no particular reason to believe this is likely but the thought is worrying enough that I’d be ok having it explained to me that it is a foolish idea.
It’s consistent with how Witkoff, Kushner, and co. are p*sssing off the Russians with their NY real estate tycoon/Mafia approach to geopolitics, which naively assumes that everything is only and always about the income streams and payoffs to the designated players.
Witkoff and Kushner are best seen as walking avatars of disinformation. They insist on flying around and talking, offer nothing and deliver just as much.
The only thing they may accomplish is contact-tracing of communications back to the leadership of their diplomatic counterparts. After all, the US has taken shots at the Ayatollah, Pezeshkian, Putin, and successfully gotten Nasrallah.
At this point, Israel may decide to write Trump off by dumping the incriminating Epstein photos and videos. Given the growing MAGA split regarding Israel support, Netanyahu may decide that the Democrats are more reliable partners. I agree that the events of the next few weeks will reveal the magnitude of Israel’s political influence over the U.S.
No, not yet. If Trump TACOs and the Z’nosts are forced to play long game again, they will prep the field first in an effort to position their man for the VP spot. This idea is based on Vance not being in the Epstein club, which I am inclined to believe. So look for testing the waters type headlines featuring Trump “considering retirement” and “Gosh, What About Huckabee for VP?!”.
The far likelier possibility is that Trump attacks Iran and soon, damn the torpedos and that sort of thing.
Reinforcing your point, Yves, on triple-checking for the ultimate origin of claims, there is a similar concept of circular citations/reporting coined as “citogenisis” by the comic XKCD , where false citations can unknowingly become a self-reinforcing loop on Wikipedia.
It’s why I like the weekly roundtable on Napolitano, I find when Johnson and McGovern disagree on something it makes for the more informative discussions.
I heard Johnson yesterday on Judge Nap suggesting the Russians would likely Oreshnik London in response to the recent deep attacks into Russia. It made me doubt his judgement.
The whole “moon phase” thing…
…if you look at Israeli aircraft operations during the 12-day war last year, it seems that at no point did any of them actually enter Iran. They would fly close to the border, launch their payloads, and retreat. This tactic does not rely in the slightest on moon phases. Nor does launching Tomahawks from a US destroyer, and one would assume that Tomahawk strikes would be a big part of the equation if the US does have a go at it.
In fact, a lot of the “signature strikes” – e.g. against that Iranian TV station, or the famous video of a busy intersection in Teheran being blown up – that was all during daylight hours. Ditto a lot of the drone strikes carried out either with aircraft-type drones from just beyond Iran’s borders, or FPV drones from inside Iran that were used (according to videos in the public domain) to take out some of Iran’s air defense assets.
Where the moonless night thing could come into play, I am guessing, is for operations of Israeli/US proxies inside Iran. Say, if the 15k ISIS (really a bit fewer, because that figure includes family members) that were just “liberated” in Syria were moved to the Iran-Iraq border and told to go attack, I don’t know, the Abadan refinery or something. Or if some MEK wanted to infiltrate across the border again, as the Iranians allege they had just before the two days of violence in January. I have to believe that if the US really wants to rattle the Iranian regime this time, they have to triple down on the proxies, especially as they had been such a key component in keeping the Iranian air defense down the last time around.
As well, if Trump wanted to send B-2s over Iran again, that’s when light conditions might matter. My Internet Search-Fu indicates that the B-2s were over the target area on 1840-1900 EDT, June 21. EDT is 8 hours 30 minutes behind Iran, so we’re basically talking 3:30 in the morning on June 22 Teheran time. June 22, however, was the exact start of the first quarter phase of the moon in Tehran province, again, according to the Internet (https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/phases/@110791). So still fairly dark, although not quite as dark as it could be? But then, why even use B-2s this time around if your targets are specific individuals (political and military leaders), command-control-communication structures, and air defense assets?
My point is I am still perplexed by this relentless fixation on moon phases. To me the key dates are one, today, that’s the State of the Union, and then there is the visit to China March 31 to April 2. And in-between, there’s your window, say, March 1 onwards. Then, either (miraculously) the whole thing will wrap up before March 31, or there will still be enough time to cancel the trip for “wartime president” reasons. I guess.
“Where the moonless night thing could come into play, I am guessing, is for operations of Israeli/US proxies inside Iran.”
What if the USA want to carry out a “boots-on-the-ground” operation with special forces — like the abduction of Maduro, the liquidation of Ben Laden, or some high-profile sabotage? Would a moonless night be more helpful then?
I have not yet noticed anyone mentioning Ramadan. It might be that the attack would come later in Ramadan when many in Iran would be perhaps a bit weaker due to fasting. It can be timed right before sunset when the devout had not yet eaten or drunk water.
Unlikely to be an issue. The Arab attack on Israel in 1974 started on the 10th day of Ramadan.
The only way I can make sense of the concern about moonlight is if they are sending in a force to seize Bandar Abbas or another section of Iran’s coast to establish a US foothold and be able to move missile launchers into it. Which is not going to be a high speed operation but involving copters and landing ships. For high speed high flying planes they could wait till the moon is low in the west or between moonset and sunrise. And the moon will be still in the first quarter through Sunday, so not that much light. But still, radar will pick them up before the moon betrays them. If they are going to go through with this madness it seems like any time between Thursday night and Sunday early morning would meet their specifications. Unless they have some Mossad trickery to help out (sabotage/assassinations in Tehran or cyberattacks or something like that), it still seems like Iran could get off a massive retaliation against US bases and Israel in the early going though.
SOTU will be interesting, Trump is under a lot of pressure from multiple directions and his mental and physical deterioration over the last year is becoming too obvious to ignore.
My hope is that Trump has a meltdown tonight, a “Biden Moment” that makes his incapacity undeniable.
It would have unpredictable consequences, however leaving him in office does as well, there are no good outcomes to this situation.
Enjoy the show while it lasts…
I’m a bit confused. According to yesterday’s The Hill: Witkoff says Iran ‘a week away’ from nuclear bombmaking material. But from the same article ‘ Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the bombing campaign “obliterated” Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons.’ And Trump, in the above Tweet, claims the nuclear development facility was “blown to smithereens”.
Bibi Nuttiyahoo has said Iran’s a week away from nuking him for decades. And they will be for decades more.
IMHO There’s a good chance that an attack comes today (early morning hours of tomorrow in Iran) – the 4th anniversary of the Russia invasion.
That sends a certain message that Trump and his Deep State friends would enjoy sending: that Putin – and his refusal of a ceasefire (!) – has destabilized the world. USA is only reacting to that!
Trump would relish opening his State of the Union speech with news of a USA attack, pointing a finger at Putin. Just as he relished (I believe) his missile attack on Syria while entertaining Xi at Mar-a-Lago.
An attack doesn’t have to be on Iran directly. Israel and the Trump Admin have made demands on Lebanon (to disarm Hezbollah) and Iraq (to reject Maliki). If Trump chooses not to attack Iran, that doesn’t mean USA forces pack up and head home.
I would caution about reading too much into the rather obvious deceptions being deployed to pretend that Trump is wavering or war can’t happen for this or that reason: 1) media headlines screamed that Trump gave Iran a 10-day deadline – but Trump actually said that war could happen within 10 days; 2) the anonymous rumor that Trump was confused at Iran’s not capitulating has been reported as fact; 3) Trump just nixed General Caine’s cautions, saying that Caine is actually supportive of war.
Also funny how we get media pundits lauding Trump’s 11-dimensional chess and then we get some of the same pundits wondering if Trump has been given wrong info about Iran. And Trump himself deceives ALL THE TIME. He still (as far as I know) hasn’t walked back his claim that USA had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program.
Whatever is going to happen has probably been decided weeks, or even months ago.
Lastly, Tucker’s interview with Zio Huckster sets up a neat Not-so good cop – really bad cop routine, doesn’t it? One could well imagine a scenario like this: USA kicks off war in the middle east with ‘limited attacks’ on Iranian allies – attributed to Trump’s need to ‘save face’? . . . Trump/USA declares that it’s military will return home . . . Israel escalates hostilities and an escalatory spiral leads to attacks . . . ‘forcing’ Trump/USA to join in war against Iran to ‘save’ their ally.
Realistic or not, there are many such possible scenarios that take us to the war that BOTH! USA and Israel want. Being led to believe Trump alone is “the decider” is a canard we should not be swallowing.
>the anonymous rumor that Trump was confused at Iran’s not capitulating has been reported as fact;
Witkoff literally said it on Fox News in an interview with Lara Trump
It’s still second hand (and he actually says Trump is “curious”, not confused). And, it was said in an interview with the President’s daughter-in-law which should automatically be considered propaganda or disinfo.
Is it credible that Trump doesn’t understand Iran’s unwillingness to capitulate (unilateral surrender)?
No.
This propaganda in interview format creates the pretense that Iran’s actions are nonsensical and that Iran is forcing Trump to act in a way that appears contrary to Trump’s supposed ‘peacemaker’ inclinations. They both laud Trump’s peacemaking at the end of the interview (“proven that he is the President of Peace”)!!
PS I wasn’t aware of the actual source. I’d only seen discussions about Trump’s confusion.
Oh … look at that.
Senate Democrats emerge from secret Iran briefing warning of ‘serious’ moment’.
As far as I can tell, the “rare” briefing, held at 3pm today, was first reported by Fox News at 2:38pm today. Sounds like it was hurried … as though a decision had already been made and an order was ready to be issued (after the necessary briefing of Congressional leaders).
Maybe we should give Larry Johnson and even “the highly connected sources” a break here. Everybody on the planet, like it or not, is effected by Trumps mercurial brain. One minute everything is bigly and beautiful and a minute later somebody is a scumbag. Would you be surprised if he mooned everyone in attendance tonight at the SOU speech?
I am not blaming Johnson. I am saying I should not have fallen for “the decision has been made”. Neither Johnson nor Kirakou (or Mercouris, who said he had heard privately that the “the decision had been made”) actually said that their contacts said that Trump had given a green light. .
Imo trump will delay, he doesn’t really want war, and some logic for mar 19 weekend, Eid/new moon etc… plus, trump hasn’t stopped his ‘deal or war’ threats.
but Israel will see this as the last opportunity to drag us into war, likely dragging navy back into theater just won’t happen, plus over time iran is continuously better prepared. Seems really likely somebody lights the fuse.
I’m of the view that this operation has a number of green lights needing to be lit before it reaches Bibi for final decision. The US military has been put at his disposal. Some of the lights are obviously not lit, the question then becomes what are those precondition lights and are they still possible in the next short while? What are the dependencies, are the dependencies time sensitive?
I’m leaning towards not time sensitive, not window sensitive, because the military planners aren’t likely to scale up in this way if it hinges on a variable which may or may not happen. More likely the scale up is because there is high confidence of variables/contingencies happening.
Similar to how the d-day invasion depended on the weather, only in this case it’s almost certainly not weather but some operation(s) we don’t know about (yet).
And I don’t think anything depends on what the Iranians will do, I suspect they aren’t even a factor in the decisioning process. Bibi does not care about diplomacy or the diplomatic process, if he had his way he’d assassinate the diplomatic teams.
And Trump insisting oh so hard that he’s the decider is likely a good indicator he’s not.
What strikes me is even with the massive scale, given the tanker focus, assuming the air tankers will not have bases to return to, they likely represent “enough fuel” for whatever the plan involves.
And whatever the plan involves, it involves 1) keeping planes in the air, removing the need for them to land, or 2) extending their ranges, or 3) extending ranges while removing drop tanks which allows for more ammo.
Assuming 1) and/or 3), with the given number of tankers, how many squadrons can remain in the air, for how long? 2-4 days? And if they need to be in the air this long, why? Does the countdown begin the moment Israel does something, are all tankers and fighters scrambled from that moment?
Air defense of Israel seems likely, using fighters to intercept the incoming barrage of missiles, for which they will need more ammo and therefore no drop tanks?
Assume air-to-air loadout of an F14 squadron is 4 AIM54, 2 AIM7F, 2 AIM9H, assume (believing the media) 200 fighters are at Israel’s disposal. Assume a 70% hit rate. This will take down 1000 Iranian missiles/drones. Let’s be safe and assume 800 missiles/drones are intercepted. Drones seem less likely to be intercepted by the usual Air to Air missiles.
Once the fuel is spent the fighters must leave the theatre, only the carrier-based fighters become available for air defense.
Now if I were Iran, I would be considering that all those US airbases plus the two carriers are tempting targets intended to absorb and dilute my missiles, given my considerable but nevertheless limited stocks, do I take out all or most of these targets or do I concentrate everything on some much more valuable targets. And as an armchair non-expert what do I consider the most valuable? Probably Dimona. You take out my nuclear capabilities, I’ll take out yours, seems fair.
But it still comes back to what are the preconditions needing to be met.
No, your assumption is not correct. The Israel Defense Minster gave the US a target list weeks ago. Then Netanyahu moved up a visit to US by a week to meet with Trump because he was not only still talking to Iran but was acting as if he thought there could be a diplomatic outcome. That was the meeting after which Trump and Bibi did not have a press conference, as was their well established practice, and Trump said the was the decider and he still wanted to see if he could get Iran to knuckle under.
I would argue this points to Bibi not being interested in diplomatic outcomes, the operational green light is not contingent upon it. Other factors internal to the military operation are more likely the preconditions which must be met for it to commence/proceed.
Likely to coincide with the State of the Union. I think we’re about to learn if the US and Israel just went nuclear against Iran, in which case they will pretend they tried diplomacy.
Please get a grip. The US is not going nuclear. Trump thought he would get good news Sunday and he did not. There is no way the military would back a nuclear strike. He actually does need their cooperation. Israel might nuke but only after an Iran retaliation. There would not be this much worry about operational failure if nukes were in the mix.
Also, just to nitpick, only Iran operates F14s now…. and Phoenixes are likely all gone and Sparrows and AIM9Hs are like 1970s equipment.
Thank you for the nitpick, I’m definitely not an expert.
Other pieces on the chessboard get a vote in this set-piece of uni-vs-multi-polarity:
– Pakistan (offered Iran its nuclear shield)
– Russia (can threaten the Ukraine / EU with unilateral obliteration or Azerbaijan with invasion, as what is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander)
– China (could blockade Taiwan for kicks)
My money is on Azerbaijan. The US has sewn up Russian gas transit to Europe via the Ukraine. The US and Turkey are greedily hoping to do the same for Central Asian gas via Turkey. Israel has been using Azerbaijan to attack Iran directly.
What if Iran has said it will take Azerbaijan if hostilities break out and Russia has said it will enter Azerbaijan to protect ethnic Russians? Then Israel loses its knife at Iran’s back, Turkey loses a vital link in its Turkic Empire and the US loses energy dominance over Europe (because Azeri/Iranian/Turkmeni gas would not, technically, be Russian gas and Europe would gulp it down).
Another angle is allies: other chess pieces get a kicking too….
Iran can shoot missiles at non-Zionists! What if Iran has said that, in the event of attack, it will obliterate Se’eb (MI6/GCHQ listening post on the Gulf of Oman) and Mount Troodos (similar, in Cypriot mountains)? “One false move and the USA’s vital UK-flag-of-convenience military assets get it!”. Starmer is not prepared to explain to Parliament why hundreds of Britons are dead and a hundreds of millions of pounds are on fire because Trump and Israel attacked Iran.
The current situation is like watching the start of a fight in judo, when the judoka are apparently locked in close stance but feeling dynamically for each other’s balance and grip. Nothing is happening until it explodes.
Speaking of Pakistan, I’m sure this will be the “talk of the town” tomorrow:
https://www.msn.com/en-in/politics/government/netanyahu-outlines-key-stops-in-pm-modi-s-high-profile-israel-visit/ar-AA1WRXdI/
Netanyahu outlines key stops in PM Modi’s high-profile Israel visit
I am very glad the u.s. did not attack Iran over the weekend. Second-guessing Trump, and the u.s. elites, seems fraught with complexity and contradictions. To me, the u.s. Empire runs on inscrutable madness. I weakly [‘weakly’ based on past madness] hope the u.s. will not attack Iran at some time in the near or distant future.
> It seems inconceivable that even the egomaniacal Trump would launch a war when his authority had been so blunted and he was having to fight again for political survival.
Am I just irredeemably cynical (or unrealistic) for fearing that this is exactly when such people launch wars? It must be nice to have hope that Trump is yet realistic enough to be deterred.
Clankenfoot:Am I just irredeemably cynical (or unrealistic) for fearing that this is exactly when such people launch wars?
You are a sober, cool-headed realist. Thatcher launched the Falklands war under just such circumstances, forex.
This is one of the parts that concerns me – the prospect that in a war, Iran might overwhelm Israeli air defenses sufficiently to shatter its aura of safety.
The last time Israel’s aura of safety was shattered was the Hamas attacks in 2023, and we saw the consequences – it was willing to escalate a long way up the scale of brutality and savagery in order to try and recapture it. I don’t want to see what kind of steps Israel would take if Iran triggered something similar. I hope they’d have options available that didn’t involve nukes.
We’re left with hoping Iran is able to respond with enough finesse that the message gets through to policymakers and the military, while still allowing them to preserve the illusion for regular people. They seem to have accomplished that in the 12 day war, but it’s a delicate balance, and some of the principals in this situation don’t respond well to subtlety.
I actually think it’s very unlikely the Navy assets sitting near Iran will just pack up and leave. It might be that they’ll beat up on Lebanon or Iraq and then leave, but they’re carrying an awful lot of firepower that is itching to be used. But I still think the most likely outcome is an attack on Iran but they need to build up the element of surprise again. Recall that in Venezuela, it wasn’t after a month of beating up on fishing boats that they executed that daring raid on Maduro.
I’m inclined to think Trump does not want war. I also think that he has recently realized that Iran is not quite the enemy he once thought it was and Israel is not quite the friend he once thought it was. Unlike Netanyahu, Trump wants a deal and, so far, Iran’s leadership have been clear that they are willing to fight and die rather than capitulate. I think Trump, on some level, respects Iran but at the same time Israel makes it hard to amend the terms of the deal since it’s Israel’s deal in the first place and Trump himself committed to it. Trump’s decision is not war or no war, it’s either war with Iran or political war with Israel and its supporters; Miriam Adelson and friends did not cough up hundreds of millions of dollars for Trump to get a deal.
Plenty has been said about the consequences of war. I will only add what might be the consequences of Killing Ayatollah Khamenei. The Ayatollah is a religious leader. If you bomb the Vatican and kill the pope there will be repercussions beyond Italy. Likewise, if you kill Khamenei, and potentially other religious leaders, there could be nasty surprises. Though Iran is Shia, we could easily create a strong reaction from the entire Shia world and potentially from the entire Muslim world.