[The essence of this post was completed at launch time, so feel free to comment. But I expect to fluff it out a bit more with commentary from others, so there will be more here at 7;30 AM EST]
More than ever, I hope to be wrong. A US or Israel initiated war with Iran would represent the worst sort of end of an era event, and risks an “end of the world as we know it” if Israel were to use nuclear weapons.
Normally, as many commentators have pointed out, one would expect Trump’s well-established self-preservation instincts, famously manifested as his tendency to TACO, to prevail. The odds of the US executing the sort of quick, flashy raid as it did in Caracas, where the risks were only the crews of a few helicopters and those were diminished by having insider intel and assistance, are close to nil. Similarly, the sort of threat display represented by earlier and rapidly increasing force movements to the theater is producing an Iran capitulation to US/Israel demands that are tantamount to baring its throat to soon be slit by Israel.
In addition, as many experts believe, and have presented ample evidence to support their views, even with the US assembling massive firepower in the theater, the US would be able to sustain a full-bore bombing campaign for perhaps a week or two. The US is short of air defense missiles. Iran is widely depicted to have more than enough drones and missiles deeply bunkered so as to be to exhaust those protections and pummel the target of choice, be they Israel, US bases in the region, ships in the carrier groups participating in this operation, or even oil transport and production facilities in neighbors deemed to have been too helpful to the US. And that is before getting to the fact that it would be not hard for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz and/or also declare a fatwa, and call on Shia on the region to hit the US, Israel, and their allies.
But Trump has amassed so many forces in the region that it looks as if a strike is imminent. The US has also moved military personnel out of bases it believes are vulnerable to an Iranian retaliation. In keeping, a very well connected contact (and a name most readers would recognize) wrote about 9 hours ago: “Unless Trump does a sudden reversal, we’re going to initiate combat with Iran in the next 48 hours.” Larry Johnson published a similar view in a fresh post, One Minute to Midnight:
Notwithstanding some of the positive words that came out following the talks in Geneva on Tuesday between the United States and Iran, the die is cast… The United States is going to attack Iran in an attempt to create enough social disorder and chaos in Iran that the Shia Muslim clerics will be forced to disband the Islamic Republic. All of the US military pieces for this action are in place or shortly will be. The one wild card is Donald Trump. He has issued the Deployment Order and the US bases in the region have been flooded with the largest contingent of US combat air assets since the invasion of Iraq in March 2003.
There is a report tonight from the NY Times that :
Senior national security officials have told the president that any operation that aims to change the Iranian leadership is not guaranteed to be a success, the officials said. . . . “Diplomacy may give the U.S. more time to get its military ready, but it also gives Iran more time to plan its retaliation,” said Vali Nasr, an Iran expert at Johns Hopkins University. “Ultimately,” he added, “the president has to weigh the cost of attacking Iran. Ironically his approach has made those costs more likely….
There is another indicator that something bad is afoot… The pizza joints near the Pentagon in Washington, DC, and CENTCOM headquarters at MacDill Air Force base are showing unusual spikes in activity… This fits a pattern observed on the eve of previous US military actions in Venezuela, Iran and Iraq.
Confirming Johnson:
Trump officials say there's a 90% chance of strikes on Iran. He can’t without Congress. @RepThomasMassie & I have a War Powers Resolution to debate & vote on war before putting U.S. troops in harm’s way. I will make a motion to discharge to force a vote on it next week. https://t.co/FWQ245D6B8
— Ro Khanna (@RoKhanna) February 18, 2026
And:
WSJ: President Trump was briefed on a series of military action options against Iran, with all of the courses of action designed to inflict maximum damage on the Islamic regime and its terror proxies.
— Energy Headline News (@OilHeadlineNews) February 19, 2026
Armchair Warlord begged to differ:
Some thoughts on the current situation with Iran:
1. Deployment prior to this week was, as I pointed out at the time, consistent with a show of force to underline a negotiating position rather than a serious operation. Although that has begun to change, US aerial forces in the… pic.twitter.com/5ZAU4Uvi17
— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) February 19, 2026
This section towards the end of his tweet is why he contends the buildup is just a very big threat display:
US deployments to the Middle East thus far are to give Trump a credible military option if he decides to use force against Iran – prior deployments were non-credible and the Iranians would have taken them as such – but talk that war is necessarily imminent or that this force is actually adequate to the absolutely colossal task at hand (Iran is a country of 90 million and a geographic fortress) is irresponsible.
Action may not be as imminent as Johnson posited, or perhaps Trump is still trying to find an off ramp:
U.S. military ready for potential Iran strikes as soon as Saturday, but action likely delayed beyond this weekend. — CBS pic.twitter.com/1mgKmMcWuV
— Usman Goraya (@MrHunny01) February 19, 2026
So why might Trump nevertheless stay the bad course he looks to be on? One is that he has bad intel, just as the US and Europe did before the start of the Special Military Operation. Recall that at 2022 February Munich Security Conference, the participants were giddy with the prospect of the pending war with Russia. They were convinced that Russia would collapse under the weight of shock and awe sanctions and presumed military incompetence. Today, there are too many military-industrial complex adjacent talking heads blathering about how Iran is weaker than ever, despite the latest regime change attempt only having further strengthened support in Iran for its government. But a significant cohort apparently believes that if the US does enough damage to Iran, its populace will rise up against its rulers. Daniel Davis provided some fresh news foaming-at-the-mouth clips from hawks:
🚨 Trump's Instincts vs. the Powerful War Lobby🚨
I expose how some in Trump's most trusted inner circle – like Mike Pompeo (@mikepompeo), PM Netanyahu (@netanyahu), & Sen Lindsey Graham (@GrahamBlog; @LindseyGrahamSC ) – are pushing Trump toward war with Iran—despite his better… pic.twitter.com/3yIgufOlMY— Daniel Davis Deep Dive (@DanielLDavis1) February 18, 2026
But there is another reason I find more compelling. Trump is ultimately not in charge of whether or not to go to war with Iran. Israel is. Israel can force a conflict, as it did in the 12 Day War, by attacking Iran. The Zionist-aligned Trump regime would have to run to Israel’s defense. And this time, Iran has warned that its response to any attack by the US or Israel will be ferocious.
So the choice really is not wor with Iran or not, but does the US or Israel pull the trigger? All things being equal, the US would presumably prefer to control the timing and get in as hard a first strike as possible to increase the odds of success.
But why is Israel so set on taking what looks like a suicidal path?
First, as we reported earlier, readers with security-adjacent networks in Israel report that most Israelis genuinely believe Israel will win.
Second, as we have been pointing out for a very long time, support for Israel in the US is declining generationally among Jews. Despite the great political clout of Zionist billionaires, younger Jews, starting in the early 2000s, were just not into Israel. Many came out to protest the genocide before the US got good at cracking down on these demonstrations. So the ability to rely on full bore US support for Israel adventurism in its neighborhood is a waning asset. And that is before factoring in that Trump is a particularly Zionist/evangelical Christian indebted president.
We have also mentioned that Israel likely has leverage over Trump due to possessing kompromat:
So despite the current appearance of great potency, Israel’s power in the Beltway is destined to wane. And it can expect to face new constraints if the Democrats take the House in the midterms (charitably assuming they actually do happen). They would be certain to launch impeachment proceedings, which would further damage Trump’s contested authority at home and also consume a lot of Trump’s time and mental energy. He would again be on the back foot when he greatly prefers to act as a Colossus bestride the world.
Trump has backed himself into a no-win position. And as indicated above, in the end, Israel can and looks set to push Trump into war if he tries to beat a retreat. Trump can’t stand to be dominated. So both his ego need and the strategic value of the US controlling the timing and nature of an attack argue for him proceeding despite the enormous and very real downsides.
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The limited number of nuclear weapons israel has is not the end of the world. israel the size of New Jersey can easily be covered by Iran’s ballistic and hypersonice missiles by the thousands. The last ignorant move on Iran failed after only 8 days, israel was doomed long before 12 days. israel launching nuclear weapons would damage Iran and it’s infrastructure as well as murdering a million people for years. However, isreal would be Gaza in a very short time weeks. The worlds economy may never recover having u.s. and it’s gov. in israel being isolated and sanctioned by the world. That would be the nuclear death of israel by it’s own weapons.
I did not say the end of the world. I said the end of the world as we know it. Israeli use of nuclear weapons assures World War III. And you are ignoring the risk of nuclear retaliation. While Pakistan could show restraint, it might instead choose to join the nuclear fray.
I’ll point and wonder about North Korea in an environment of “normalized” nuclear weapon strikes.
Israel surely has a breeder reactor, assuming their nuclear weapons are plutonium based. If that were heavily damaged, it would be catastrophic for a country that size. Why is this never mentioned?
As I understand it, Israel’s plutonium-producing reactor is at Dimona in the Negev Desert. The radioactive plume from there would stretch west into Saudi Arabia. Their plutonium production plant used to be in the same place. Very nasty, but less disastrous for Israel than for its neighbours.
The main Israeli reactor is at Dimona – its thought that most or all of Israels weapons grade material was produced there – it had produced a very large quantity by the late 1980’s. It seems to have been closed down a decade or more ago precisely because it was identified as a Hamas target. No doubt there is plenty of material stored away.
Another thing that has not been mentioned is: Do any of the US flotilla carry nuclear weapons. Sinking one that does would cause immense damage to the region.
US warships used to carry nuclear weapons during the cold war. There were nucelar warheads om tomahawks and even nuclear armed torpedos (don’t need to accurately hit a subamarine if you use a nuke).
My understanding is they have not done so since the end of the Cold War, but that can be changed on a whim.
It wouldn’t be great if one ended up at the bottom of the sea, but it is quite a small warhead on a tomahawk. A bigger issue would be if one of the carriers went down with their very large reactors. Though not sure how bad it would be.
Pres GHW Bush declared it was the policy of the US to no longer deploy tactical nuclear weapons in surface ships. The current naval capability rests with the W76-2 low-yield warhead that can be deployed in Trident II SSBNs.
Both US and Russia/CCCP have lost propulsion reactors at sea before.
I note that most commentators seem to ignore the possibility of USN submarine activity in the theater. I guess we won’t know until one or more missiles pop up from the sea.
Also note that when the requirement to deploy tactical weapons went away, the cost to maintain the capability as a reserve was so high that over time it atrophied. Outside of the sub force, very few today would have been around in the time of “neither confirm nor deny”.
There have been a few ships woth reactors that have gone down. But none that have been hit with missiles and wrecked with explosions. Could be worse.
There will be submarines with the carrier battlegroups. I beleieve it id standard for one attack submarine to accompany each one, assimg any are available. But they would not use any of the 14 Ohio SSBN. There are supposed to be about 4 of them on station in the Arctic at anytime, and I’ve heard they are struggling with that. There are also 4 Ohio class SSGNs that carry 154 tomahawks. In theory they could be nuclear armed but unlikely. If they are planning a strike it would make sense to have a few of them there. However, based on maintenance schedules and so on that would moat likely be one. Maybe at a stretch they might get 2 there.
You make a good point about the capability atrophying. Even if they have a few warheads would they jabe enough trained sailors for dealing with them?
The aircraft carriers have nuclear reactors on them to run the turbines. US subs also have a reactor for power.
Wouldnt be the first ship board nuclear reactor to end up at the bottom of the ocean.
The Iranian military confirmed that it had sent drones and fired short-range missiles at al-Udeid airbase in Qatar, the Ali al-Salem base in Kuwait,al-Dhafra airbase in the United Arab Emirates, the Prince Sultain airbase in Riyadh, the US base in Erbil, northern Iraq, the Muwaffaq Salti airbase in Jordan, and the US Fifth fleet base in Bahrain. why is this never mentioned? Plenty of Israelis will meet defeat. Nobody wins.
After committing a genocide, what moral or legal restraints do you think Israel has. They are fully planning nuclear strikes, because once they take out Iran and use nukes to do it, no regional rival would dare to stand in their way. Some have argued that the purpose of the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were just such an event, a show of force to all rivals. Makes perfect sense when you strip away or the morals and legal arguments.
I do not understand your comment. I said Israel could well use nuclear weapons. You are acting as if I said the reverse.
Israel would be destroyed in that case even absent Pakistan action. That would trigger the Iran dead hand strikes. It would take very little to wipe out Israel’s electrical production, say, which would end desalination, which would end Israel habitability. And that is only one type of critical infrastructure target.
It would likely mean the end of most states policy of no nuclear first use.
If they do use nuclear weapons and it becomes normalized the likelihood of nuclear weapons being used in other conflicts becomes much higher.
Russia, India, Pakistan for some very obvious ones.
And that could quickly escalate.
It would only become normalized if Isr itself was not destroyed immediately afterward. Which I think Iran or other actors in the region would be quick to do.That would re-establish the MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) strategy.
Maybe.
But I wouldn’t be so sure.
The other actors have no reason to risk their own survival by attacking Israel.
Iran will certainly try, but we don’t really know how much damage Israel would be able to inflict if they were to use nukes or how much damage Iran would be able to inflict in retaliation.
If we do get to that point I can see a scenario where Israel is badly damaged but does not suffer major civilian losses while Iran suffers a genocide.
Much easier to inflict civilian casualties with nuclear weapons vs ballistic missiles.
That’s assuming that the rulers of those dictatorships stay in power. The incidents could lead to a few, maybe several, coups across the region.
Or it will have the opposite effect. Governments and the governed will witness the consequences of a nuclear attack and react against the guilty party and its allies. For instance, if Israel attempts a serious attack on Iran, nuclear or not, and Iran retaliates and converts the Jewish State into the logical extension of Gaza, can you seriously imagine the US deliberately making a retaliatory nuclear strike against Iran when it considers the consequences which will automatically follow, or would the US prefer go out with a bang rather than a whimper? If anything, the destruction of Israel will take a lot of US politicians – including Trump – off the Epstein/Zionist hook and will force the nuclear powers to seriously get down to how best to de-nuclearise their militaries.
Two countries in the world have First Use nuclear policies, the US and Israel. Every other country considers them defensive weapons only, for example Russia will only use nukes if attacked with nuclear or other WMD.
There is also the possibility that Iran could respond to a nuclear attack with it’s own nuclear attack on Israel. Theodore Postol, in an interview with Glenn Diesen on Diesen’s Youtube channel just after the 12 day war, gave a good analysis that Iran should be regarded now as an “undeclared nuclear weapons state”: Theodore Postal: Iran is Now an Undeclared Nuclear State (1:15:34)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkcS3FQfjKI
Basically, he said Iran could easily make 10 nuclear weapons out of the enriched uranium they already have and the previous Israel-US attack on them could well push them to do so.
*Sigh*
The nuclear material needs to be delivered. The hard part is marrying the missile to the warhead. Postol of all people should know that. If he actually said what you reported, I have to substantially downgrade my view. He also said bollocks about hypersonic missiles, that the damage they do is all on the surface.
Postol discusses delivery from about 49:49 and on in the video. He says the whole device would weigh a lot less than the explosives currently being used in the Iranians long range missiles, so he seems to be saying they could use an existing missile as if it would not be a problem. He also says with the weight reduction there would be room for decoys in the warhead making it more difficult to intercept. I have no idea if this is realistic or not, but I’m just relaying that he does discuss delivery.
I second Yves’ reservations, from my, err, past personal connections in the nuclear field. Though primarily on the “reactor” side of it.
Basically, it’s “very easy” to assemble a nuclear fission device the size of a small room. In fact, I believe this was basically North Korea’s first nuclear test.
But miniaturizing that device to the size of a beach ball (or smaller), especially if you have more limited access to imported components, is a bit of an issue. Not the fissile material itself, but the electronic triggers as well as the implosion-producing explosive plates and whatever other components go into it. It is certainly doable for Iran, but one might argue they can just as well invest the same resources into producing more conventional hypersonic missiles – which they apparently have in serial production already, and which are more than sufficient to destroy all of Israel’s infrastructure without wiping out the population (which would be the one “upgrade” of a nuke over conventional hypersonics).
And, of course, whatever Postol may have said, there is the other angle, and that is not provoking a nuclear strike from Israel. Or, at least, looking like the victim in the event of one. The moment Iran openly declares “we have a nuke”, or tests one, or whatever, Israel is in the same position the US was in the 50s – “we” have more nukes than “them”, so “we” should strike first before “they” make more, the logic goes. Kennedy in 1961, to his credit, refused to continue to plan for such a strike (timed for late 1963, ironically enough); I am not sure Tel Aviv would be quite so pacific if it came to that.
iran could get any components it needs from north korea, if it cannot produce them itself. or it could “hire” a couple of complete warheads as insurance policy against nuclear attack and put an end to zionist nuclear blackmail, while maintaining nuclear ambiguity. nk, s. africa, pakistan all succeeded so iran could. and this is the only viable deterrent against constant zionist/ us aggression. poland, germany, japan et al are all planning to tool up with wmd, so the psychological barrier against doing so will erode with time.
I don’t see why the existing Iranian missiles could not be used to deliver a nuclear warhead. I am sure Pakistan has experience with similar sized missiles and warheads.
Indeed, the most likely way Iran can cross the threshhold in an emergency is borrowing some warheads or complete missiles from a neighbour. These could even be in place right now, in Iran, under Pakistani control. That would abide by the letter of Khomeini’s fatwa against Iran using nuclear weapons if not the spirit. China is also a friend of Iran and Pakistan and may be happy to provide the targeting.
We may be living through a Persian Missile Crisis as we speak. Unfortunately, Benjamin Netantahu, you are no John Kennedy….
Iran does not have a nuclear warhead. They have a fatwa against nukes. Please do not assume things that are not operative. And I have yet to see any evidence that Pakistan is besties with Iran. They are close to the Saudis, which until recently has not been at all keen about helping Iran but has recently come to see Israel as the bigger threat to regional stability.
And why would Pakistan (or Russia or China) want to encourage nuclear proliferation in the neighborhood? One of the big reasons Iran has not developed a nuclear weapon is all the family kingdoms would then have to have them.
my thoughts exactly. this is very old technology, produced before television, space travel, mobile phones, computers and antibiotics. and the people who are committing genocide in gaza are quite likely to use wmd.
>But why is Israel so set on taking what looks like a suicidal path?
An excellent question. From lots of conversations with mostly secular Israelis, I think they have collectively lost their [family-blogging] minds. As in, genuinely fully tipped over into paranoia and existential lashing out madness.
This is the last best chance to get US to attack Iran, one they’ve been pushing for for decades. Now the opportunity is here, they are ignoring the risks and pushing on. I’ve spoken to some (normally sane and pacifist) Israeli friends the last days and even they are convinced Israel will win. Tbh I think living through the Gaza “war”/genocide has sent them over the edge too.
I pray for peace and sanity. I’ve never known a moment like this.
Perhaps many of the mostly secular jews still retain their religious indoctrination that in the end, Yahweh always comes to rescue his people. One cannot expect hard rationality to guide decisions of religious fanatics (how else to describe those who argue genocide is god’s work)?
Col. Wilkerson has often argued that the US military is also infested with born-again Christians who welcome the coming of Armageddon.
Scary.
They likely are correct in that afterwards the world will not be the same – I think the global system will reseat its economic center to the east, its natural center except for the age of colonialism (and genocide).
“Yahweh always comes to rescue his people”
Even by the terms of the Hebrew bible, it would be hard to make that claim. The Assyrians took out the northern kingdom of Israel in 721 BCE. Nebuchadnezzar and the neo-Babylonians took out the southern kingdom of Judah, even destroying YHWH’s “house,” i.e. temple, in 587 BCE. The temple was rebuilt after Ezra’s return roughly seventy years later, and Herod did a remodel akin to Trump’s White House ballroom just before the time of Christ, but the Romans left not one stone upon another in 70 CE.
So either YHWH is not much of a god or he is pretty fickle in his attachment to the “chosen people.”
or both (Fickle and uninvolved), but the liturgy really emphasizes the opposite (again and again and again and again).
Fear not: confronted by historical fact, they’ll dodge and weave, and claim that their tribulations only prove their chosen-ness. After all, Dog would feel obliged to test those He has chosen, no?
“This is the last best chance to get US to attack Iran, one they’ve been pushing for for decades. Now the opportunity is here, they are ignoring the risks and pushing on.”
This is what scares me the most. For all the reasons Yves mentions and more, I think Israel and its neocon allies in the US sense their window of opportunity is closing. The exposure and increasing criticism of the Israel Lobby in the US, the Epstein saga, the accelerating vulnerabilities of Trump, the splits among some of Trump’s MAGA base over Israel, everything seems to be pushing this outcome.
Though I agree that Trump’s vulnerabilities and recklessness are key factors, I think it is important to recognize that there is a significant segment of the national security establishment – the blob – that is pushing this as well. Our “liberal” media has been pumping out one bulls**t justification after another for “liberating” Iran. My wife had CNN on 30 minutes ago. Its coverage of the current military build-up might as well have been the breathless coverage of the build-up to Iraq. The twin propaganda pieces in the Times and the Post providing “humanitarian” cover for neocon war were mentioned yesterday. Despite a few members of Congress pushing back, the majority of that bought-and-paid-for club will support war, as they always do. Criticism of Israel has become justification for McCarthyite censorship and repression.
I join your prayers for peace and sanity. But it’s hard to be optimistic.
> I think it is important to recognize that there is a significant segment of the national security establishment – the blob – that is pushing this as well
Agreed. In the UK too. I think they will happy to let Donald carry the can for it when it goes wrong. He’s a perfect disposable madman.
From lots of conversations with mostly secular Israelis, I think they have collectively lost their [family-blogging] minds. As in, genuinely fully tipped over into paranoia and existential lashing out madness.
Yes, I agree. I’ve described it to others as similar to how Americans were following 9/11 until the worst of the fever broke after the Second Battle of Fallujah and Katrina. But in most respects it is worse because the real inciting event didn’t occur until after almost 20 years of a state of exception within Israel. The mid-20s and younger have never known another world.
With added generational trauma (including but predating the Nazi’s holocaust) and a related story-of-self which says “everyone is trying to kill the Jews”.
“They want to kill all of us” is what a Jewish woman in her 30s I knew said when Israel was heavily bombing Gaza after Oct 2023.
I’ve heard it literally countless times, including from 25 year old secular guys trying to explain to me why they “had” to kill every last child in Gaza.
Even my pacifist Israeli friends have this belief.
Is that why they attacked Liberty?
Could be some on those ships who remember that event.
I strongly agree with the last paragraph of your comment.
>But why is Israel so set on taking what looks like a suicidal path?
Think about the converse. What would it take, politically and socially, to change direction and how can that be accomplished? I can ask the same question about Europe’s posture towards Russia. I have no idea how to reverse a 200 year tradition of paranoia, hatred and supremacy.
I have no doubt that Iran will not give to US and Israeli pressure, it has, like Cuba, withstood US attacks for more than a generation.
Israel needs to weaken Iran and has failed to do so, its plan for a Greater Israel into Syria and Jordan cannot succeed while there is a strong country in the region and it has failed to dent the country.
What is worrying is the lack of protests in the west. The public have bought into the lie of the evil empire regime of Iran. There are some minor protests in the UK, Spain and Italy, without which the US would struggle to operate, it needs the bases and access to airspace. Until the west becomes aware of the US occupation of their countries (hardly reported), Iran and Cuba will stand alone against the US and another slaughter as per Palestine will be repeated except that the diaspora is unlikely to remain silent, the atrocities are becoming too obvious even for the media to ignore.
When was the last time an invading army won a war? The west has badly depleted arms supplies from its wars in Ukraine and Palestine and although alternative weapons systems will be used against Iran, they will be as per the bomber raid not fit for purpose.
The US will have to keep its ships well out of missile range, making them useless and if they do move within range, they risk extensive missile attacks.
Will the Straits of Hormuz survive? Regardless of the wishes of local governments, there will still be individuals who will care little about international trade and see the Straits as a US invasion of the region which they can stop with relatively low tech approaches
One can hardly call sustained military build up before an attack ‘running to someone’s defense”. Once we accept Trump is not in charge, it follows that someone else is sovereign. And it’s not the rabble of incompetent secretaries, or the Washington careerists. It’s Netenyahu and his coterie’s of officers and overseers, who periodically arrive in Washington and the Pentagon to demand inspection, report, tribute, pageantry, and military levies.
The blunt reality is that the Israeli state is the overlord of the United States, as well as the UK and a few others. It is the true sovereign, and the US military is a on-retainer subordinate branch of the IDF. The state relationship resembles the old British control over India, and the IDF/Pentagon relationship is something like an old empire like the Ottomans has with the militias and armies of their subordinated nations. Biden or Trump, Republican or Democrat, Federal or State, the US political class is simply a board of pashas and satraps, left to administrate their domestic affairs while all real matters of state foreign policy are decided by the sovereign.
The political class, in the US, UK, much of the EU, is content with this. But the public has never, and will never sign up to this insane relationship, much less to pay for it. Especially not when missiles start flying, their soldiers start dying, their gas and way of life dries up around them. The British and Europeans lost their empires after they exhausted themselves in war and their vassal populations became fed up with their subjugation. So it will be with the Israeli empire.
Historically this process usually results from a nationalist cultural movement arising within the vassalized peoples, which their political leaders then follow. Despite enormous efforts of the present political class, the beginnings of such movements can now be seen all over the western states, especially in those most subservient to the Israeli empire. The Arab regimes have had more luck keeping a lid on developments, but this relied on pliant support from the same western states which are now themselves losing a grip on public discontent.
I don’t see the military outcome of the coming campaign as being the significant development. The economic, political, and especially cultural fallouts will be far greater, even than the nuclear fallout should it arise.
Successor’s- in- interest by merger and consolidation: USrael.
Happy Ramadan and Lent, everyone?
The Israelis may control our politicians via bribes and blackmail but I would say the American public investment in this is practically nil. This is why the bribes and the blackmail have always been kept on the qt with accusations of antisemitism handy to use against any who object.
So we should not endorse Zionist megalomania by suggesting it is somehow justified. Its true appeal is to other would be Masters of the Universe.
I’ve long thought of Isr as the colony of The City of London. (You know, that tiny area of London that has its own mayor. Think of The City in the heart of London as like a sort of Vatican City in the heart of Rome… only doing international banking instead of religion.)
Banco Ambrosiano.
See: https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banco_Ambrosiano
The blunt reality is that the Israeli state is the overlord of the United States, as well as the UK and a few others. It is the true sovereign, and the US military is a on-retainer subordinate branch of the IDF.
I have come to see “Israel” as an overlapping set of arms of a state (eg the IDF and Mossad are official arms of a putative State of Israel, with legal definitions and state financing, connected to state officials of power) and trans-national oligarch and criminal nodes of power (such as Miriam Adelson funding Trump’s campaigns in order to dictate policy vis-a-vis Israel). Within each node of power within Israel, there are further overlapping sets: take Netanyahu’s grip on power for example and peer back through the dramas in the years prior to 10/7 when he couldn’t hold together a governing coalition and protests were bringing down any government that was voted in. There are indications in the Epstein docs that he was working to get Ehud Barak installed instead of Netanyahu during this phase.
If you view things this way it is clear there is no possible way “Israel is the overlord of the United States, as well as the UK and a few others”. The arms of the state are akin to Hessians in service to the US and the trans-national oligarch and criminal nodes of power are just that, albeit with a lot of money and access to power, with kompromat and technology in spades to manipulate for their bosses’ wills. And that will is typically aimed at ensuring the pretense of “The State of Israel” remains intact so that the non-state sets may continue to operate with impunity.
RJ this is a really good conceptual framework, thank you.
It’s very likely most empires had similar structures to maintain control. But this does not mean that there was not state of Britain in the British empire, or no state of France in the French empire, or that the British and the French were not, in a very real sense the overlords of India, Vietnam, Egypt, etc at one time or another.
Israel obviously exists as a state, and as a state if it can force the US to join a war against US interest then it is obviously sovereign over the US.
Except that Israel is not forcing the US to go to war. The American Zio neocons think exactly the same way as Israeli Zios, and the neocons are quite powerful now. If Israel “ran” the US, the JCPOA never would have happened.
Mark Hanna’s “Pirate Nests and the Rise of the British Empire” framed a similar concept up for me.
For 400 years there’s been a continuous cooperation between a “legalizing” center and various “outlaw clubs” (as Preparata refers to them in his “Conjuring Hitler”, about the last major such episode in the Western colonial project) to soften up the peripheries of The Empire prior to genocidal displacement and expropriation, after which the “legalizing” center moves in and cleans things up.
The Conquistadors at least understood their impulse as “a disease of the heart”: perfidious Albion and it’s lethal spawn have fully internalized “the love of money” and nothing else.
FWIW, I remember watching a video with the late Hassan Nasrallah (pbuh) where he laughingly ridicules the idea that Israel controls the US. He makes it clear that he thinks it’s the other way around. Can’t find it now. :-(
I agree with Hassan Nasrallah on this topic.
This does not mean in specific cases kompromat or bribery on specific individuals in pivotal positions are not used to further Israel’s aims.
Thanks raspberry jam, I agree with your assessment.
We are enjoying ring side seats to another example of the madness and hubris of elites. Is this how a rational person felt during the run-up to World War One? Any foolish war? The names of the players might change, but the story stays the same.
Stay safe. Get the potassium iodide out and to hand.
It might have occurred to Trump by now that if this attack is a failure, that he will be the ‘loser’ and that is something that he would hate with a vengeance. All those planes and ships destroyed and the hundreds if not thousands of American dead would be all blamed on him. Probably the Dems and the Repubs would join together to impeach him and people like Lindsay Graham & other Neocons would support this so they they would not bear any of the blame for this fiasco. The Iranians have offered him an off-ramp with the promise of hundreds of billions of dollars in deals with the US but then again, Venezuela made the same offer too and look what happened to them. As for the Israelis, the Iranians will have to hit them harder than the first time and include infrastructure like water desalination plants to wake them up to themselves. You would think that they would have after the first time but I think that there is something in their psych that shorts out at the thought that they can be successfully attacked by another country.
Trump’s shitty business decisions have lead him to declare bankruptcy multiple times. He may hate being a loser with a vengeance, but he’s still an idiot who’s fully capable of making idiotic decisions.
We are led by fools. The only possible upside I see coming from an attack on Iran is that the U.S. military is made weaker. We have been the world’s bully for much too long. Hopefully that will end soon.
Bankruptcy is not a failure in the business world. The trick is extracting all the wealth from the company before bankruptcy. Look at the Sacklers and their billions of dollars
When you realize the United States is less of a country and more of a bloated colonial joint-stock, this signals bad things.
Karaganov, in his discussion with Larry Johnson, remarked that the Iranians are “straightforwardly” religious, and that this has both limited their willingness/ability to use some logical tactics — e.g., hitting Israel’s crucial infrastructure — and caused them to make the basic strategic mistake of not developing their own nuclear deterrent. The extent to which they have learned from recent experience is yet to be revealed.
Shia Islam is not above a positively Jesuitical line of moral reasoning. They have temporary marriages in Iran, which legitimates activity that would otherwise be prostitution / unchasteness, for example.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Iran has some Pakistani nuclear missiles on its soil. Not my nukes, Allah! If they don’t, they should….
Larry Johnson also said that if Trump did this it would be the end of his presidency.
Which is an outcome devoutly to be wished for but not at the expense of dead Iranians and economic consequences for the rest of us.
And if it does happen then it will be the result of more than personal madness but the madness of our imperial capital itself where the “liberal” Washington Post is urging it on and the MIC runs the show. They are all moral weaklings pretending to be big shots with my senior senator being a typical example. Perhaps future historians will declare that we were truly living through the era of the Chicken Hawks.
I have said the same thing. But again, he is in a lose-lose.
Trump is so committed to leaving his mark on history (see his monument and naming fixation) that he might prefer a disastrous reset of the world order to say, having Israel drop Epstein super dirty laundry on Trump and have his legacy instead be how he went down over that.
On a further lose-lose-lose, will Mexico and Canada be able to take over sole responsibility for the ‘big, beautiful’ soccer worl/d cup this summer for which the grovelling FIFA president has already awarded Trump a peace prize? If indeed, there is any functioning world left by June.
The British tried to disrupt the 2018 world cup in Russia with its Skripal scare story a few months before, now Trump himself is set to disrupt his own centre stage showpiece, admittedly for a tournament in a sport the US has little prowess in or care for.
But can you imagine what would happen if that proposal became law in the US that entry would require you to disclose the past five years of your social media history, phone numbers from the last five years, email addresses from the past decade, personal details of family members and biometric information? The US is losing billions of dollars right now because of a Canadian travel boycott but here you would see a world wide travel boycott.
Thank you, John.
With regard to the Skripals, please add the Brexit negotiations not going well and the UK trying to scare the EU into being flexible.
Trump weathers reputational attacks by claiming fake news.
I wonder whether the dirty laundry is incontrovertible evidence of Trump Enterprises criminal stuff that would force impeachment, as opposed to he said/she said sex stuff. Or treason.
Yeah, I’ve been wondering how you blackmail someone who just makes up their own truth and has the media broadcast it with little critical consideration? Judging by how unhinged Trump gets when someone actually mentions Epstein to his face, there must be some really spicy stuff in there. And give what we do know, I don’t even want to speculate on how bad it could be.
If the material was sex related, it would be with a man or boy. That wouldn’t matter to many guys, but would destroy Trump on both a political and personal level.
True. Don’t forget Trumps early ‘history’ with the infamous Roy Cohn.
Exactly Sascha Riley’s claim.
But it would be easy to fake any blackmail efforts. Thus, Trump would only have to claim they are “deepfakes” and carry on, as Teflon Don. To me, the kompromat claim has less validity than plain old greed and stupidity driving the entire affair from this end. And racist hatred driving the Zionist entity to one last “war to end all wars”. We in the West are all ruled by psychopaths of one form or another.
i think Trump’s worst nightmare is the photographic evidence that he has a small weenie
he would claim AI, but it wouldn’t be survivable for his ego
There is stuff in the emails alleging that Epstein introduced Melania to Trump. That would be pretty bad for him if evidence came out.
The thought occurs that whatever happens next, the historians will never stop writing about DJT and his era. It’s a shame that he isn’t content with the mark that he already has made.
Aha, like Nero, Caligula, and perhaps Charles I? I’m not sure I want that though.
It’s a good mark, but not good enough, not big enough. Gotta do something really big. Greatest president in history without a doubt.
“Trump is so committed to leaving his mark on history (see his monument and naming fixation)…”
Ozymandias, call on line 1.
Is the aim here to control the world’s non-Russian oil and use this as leverage against China and Russia? Reopen Iran and Venezuela; drill, baby, drill; drive the price down below breakeven for Russia or, even madder, blockade China?
So he will walk away with an oil for sanctions deal and leave Bibi stranded?
Remember Trump is not running again so he can throw Miriam under the bus….
>Which is an outcome devoutly to be wished for but not at the expense of dead Iranians and economic consequences for the rest of us.
Let’s not forget all the dead sailors and other military personnel of the United Stares should a few ships end up at the bottom of the ocean. I know they should have been aware of possibly being sent into harm’s way when they enlisted but one would hope that their lives wouldn’t be lost because their “leaders” have lost their minds.
I feel like there’s a certain degree to being in the navy where it’s like— so many American (involved) wars began with a ship attack, from the Maine to the Lusitania to Pearl Harbor to the Gulf of Tonkin, because they’re expensive, kill a lot of people, and are easy to false flag. I am not a USS Maine truther, to clarify.
Scott Ritter made a few good points with Dima yesterday about Iran having too much restraint to firmly deter or answer. Just look at the absence of response after the Mossad-chaos in January.
Moreover, I don‘t remember where I read or heard but the Chinese equipment they may have received is not battle-tested so that is a question how that plays out.
In the end the chaos is the goal so that is the win. Libya, Syria, Afghanistan only chaos. Venezuela should be considered as a screw up from this admin that they can‘t even sow chaos properly.
it is battle tested. it allowed pakistan to shoot down several indian fighter jets in the last pakistan/india showdown.
That might have been simply the superiority of Chinese J-10 fighters to French Rafael fighters.
It might not have proven the efficacy of Chinese ground to air missiles. That may be an open question.
From what I’ve read it wasn’t really a case of better or worse equipment for either side, but the Pakistani air force had developed better tactics. Basically they were far more integrated.
article from reuters: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/how-pakistan-shot-down-indias-cutting-edge-fighter-using-chinese-gear-2025-08-02/
While many in the alternative media spaces are forecasting a big U.S. / Israeli defeat, Ritter and (recently) Mercouris point out inconvenient facts that I believe should not be discounted.
1. Past behavior is the best indicator of future behavior. Iran *has* arguably erred on the side of restraint since the beginning of the latest escalatory push–beginning with the attack on their embassy in Syria, and the assassination of Haniyeh. Even their agreement to end the 12-day war when they did, just when they were really starting to harm Israeli military infrastructure, may have been a mistake. (Syrian Girl has been arguing this since 2023). Despite all their rhetoric to the contrary, then, I can easily envision Iran seeking to deescalate the war even in their initial response. And I can see the U.S. and Israel anticipating and taking advantage of this.
2. The Israeli infiltration of the Iranian government and security apparatus is admitted by everybody. What we don’t know is how thoroughly Israel has infiltrated key command structures in Iran, and how operational that infiltration currently is, after the 12-day war and the January riots. Presumably Israel burned many sources in both these events. But Mercouris believes that it is very likely Israel still possesses enough sources and double-agents in Iran sufficient to (a) hamper the strength and efficiency of any Iranian response, and (b) cause significant social/political violence internally.
Perhaps I overestimate the rationality of the Pentagon, but I don’t think our military would sign off on a “weeks-long” war with Iran unless they were fairly confident that they could avoid suffering all but a handful of casualties. This suggests to me that they have gameplanned for (1) and likely are very confident in (2).
I think we’d be wise to remember that when “real” wars start, they almost never go according to plan. See: Ukraine.
Note by “real” I mean the opposite of what Trump has done in Venezuela recently, and Iran last year, with a few B-2 runs allegedly doing some damage to Fordow, but not really moving the needle after all the initial smoke and Fox news rah-rah cleared.
A real war will inevitably go off the Pentagon’s careful script. Two big “known” unknowns, as you point out, are how many Israeli spies have been rooted out, and how much restraint Iran would show. I would also add, how well-prepared are the Iranian leaders given that they had ample time and warning to dig deeper bunkers, improve op-sec, and generally not act like cupcakes e.g. Maduro and his gang of clowns. I would expect that the Iranians being a historic civilization will be a bit more prepared.
Beware Rumsfeldian “unknown unknowns.” Either way, I figure the odds of this going well for the US are low, unless significant boots are put on the ground.
When “real” wars start, they almost never go according any participants’ plan.
Why would you assume that the Pentagon is in control of their deployment. It seems to me they must simply carry out the orders issued to them via the US political class.
ChrisFromGA
“unless significant boots are put on the ground.” I might add: and, significant AI put on the digital battlefield.
Might AI be a trump card.
however, evrything Trump touches turns to crap.
Sorry, I have to throw a big bucket of cold water on that thought (AI.)
AI is not going to magically win wars. If it could, wouldn’t “Project Ukraine” be going better for the “good guys?”
But you have jave to remember that goes both ways. Iranian plans will not go the way they hope. At least not fully. People who think that Iran will wipe Israel of the face if the earth are just as delusional as those who think Israel and the USA will do that to Iran. Iranian military equipment will have the same issues as every other relatively untested kit. Some will work as designed. Some will work but not as effectively and some will fail.
And the most important point, America as ever is playing an away game. Even if it goes badly for them and they lose a ship or two, they go home with yheir tail between their legs and that is that. For Iran, even if everything goes perfetly according to their plans it will still be their cities being bombed, their civilians being killed.
The war with Russia in Ukraine was I am sure gameplanned and the West was very confident, and now the West is almost out of air defenses (which work horribly against modern missiles, but once out, even a slow drone gets through) and its economies are shaky because they are overly financialized.
Scott forgot that the US larder is bare – his points are good, but very (as he freely admits – pro marines) biased.
“Presumably Israel burned many sources in both these events. But […] it is very likely Israel still possesses enough sources and double-agents in Iran sufficient to (a) hamper the strength and efficiency of any Iranian response, and (b) cause significant social/political violence internally.”
In June 2025, the 5th column in Iran helped with the guidance of Israeli missiles against Iranian targets, and attacked themselves some targets with drones. The Iranian authorities arrested many 5th-columnists, and published photos & videos of their stashes of explosives and crates of brand-new drone kits ready to be assembled.
In January 2026, the 5th column shot at security forces and threw incendiary bombs at ambulances, police stations, and various buildings. Iranian authorities arrested many 5th-columnists, and published photos & videos of their stashes of rifles and piles of brand-new Starlink terminals in their original boxes.
Next time, the 5th column will yet again change its modus operandi — I suspect we will see suicide squads operating and blowing up things and people, perhaps also commandos saboting infrastructure (such as pipelines or electrical substations).
It surprises me that Iran is so thoroughly infested with Mossad “assets”. I would have thought that its Balooch and Kurdish enemies would be dangerous in their respective regions only, but the 12-days war and the riots have shown that those 5th-columnists are numerous, well-equipped, organized, and present everywhere.
I also fail to be impressed by the security policies of the Iranians (and previously the Lebanese Hezbollah), that resulted in dozens of officials and scientists assassinated with apparent ease (Mossad knew their personal phone numbers, exact locations, exact itinerary of their trips, etc).
On the moral level, I dislike all actors in this possible future war. But set that aside.
So far neither Hezbollah nor Iran have done anywhere near enough to deter Israel or the US–I don’t know if this is incompetence or restraint or some mixture of the two, but the “Axis of Resistance” so far has been distinctly unimpressive.
I have zero idea of how a war with Iran will go, but the fact that it might occur is because both Iran and Hezbollah look weak. That invites aggression. Maybe Israel and the US are miscalculating, or maybe they know what they are doing (militarily speaking if not in any other way.) And yes, the pager attack, immoral as it was, made Hezbollah look incompetent.
Unfortunately we may find out the truth one way or another, with a lot of innocent people dead..
Scott Ritter has repeatedly pointed out that Iran in pre-agreed attacks (before the 12 Day War) demonstrated that it had escalatory dominance. It sent a big wave of slow moving drones which it even showed launching on Iran TV. Those still drew Israel missile fire, as they had to, depleting some defenses but more important showing where the defensive assets were located. Iran then sent much faster missiles, hitting all targets with pinpoint accuracy. They were not supposed to be able to do that.
So Iran has been sending the message that it really could hurt Israel. We have chosen to ignore that.
I don’t understand this logic. If “past behavior is the best indicator of future behavior” then:
(1) Iran will continue to do exactly what it promises to do. Last June it promised to respond proportionally and stop responding when Israel stopped attacking. That’s exactly what happened on day 12. Now it says it will flatten Israel, do maximal damage to US military assets, and disrupt the world’s oil markets. That’s exactly what it should be expected to try.
(2) Iran have shut down regime change attempts by Israeli infiltrators at least twice in recent months. It will continue to do so.
I’m not in the prediction game, but this it seems to me is what follows from the “past behavior is the best indicator of future behavior” premise.
i agree with this. Iran’s actions have time and again shown their weakness. that is how it is interpreted by the US and Israel because that’s what it is. weakness of resolve.
the main problem is that Iran has given Israel and the US complete escalation dominance. They let Israel and the US dictate the terms and choose when and how to act. They are literally waiting for the knock-out blow, which will eventually come. They completely underestimate how evil their opponents are.
So the opening salvo will be crippling. They will nuke key sites, decapitating the leadership and leaving the remaining forces discombobulated. The only way it can be prevented is if iran launches a surprise mass attack against the US fleet and then focuses on fending off attacks from Israel and ramps up counterterrorism against defensive sites like radars.
*Sigh*
Russia’s strategic patience up to the Special Military Operation was also mistaken for weakness.
Daniel Davis at Deep Dive,, who has been repeatedly in combat, has said said again and again that the incentives for Iran are completely different now that the US and Israel have made it clear that the aim is regime change. He keeps stressing that their incentives are completely different now that it is undeniable that the conflict is existential and that they now have every reason to deliver on their threats (which they have never made before) to strike back ferociously if attacked.
I don’t think being repeatedly in combat enhances his credibility here, even if I find him a reliable prognosticator and do not disagree with your point. In fact, as someone who has been in combat a few times and has had to account for those impacts, I’d say they predispose you to poor judgement outside the narrow parameters of your reflexive disposition. You really gotta fight it, particularly under stressful circumstances. I see it as the biggest detractor to my better judgement.
Anyway, /nitpick, lgtm. Given how methodical your thinking (HUGELY appreciated), thought you might find this a useful perspective. I stop short of calling it a corrective, I dread to think of the salvo I might receive in return! 😅
Thanks for hosting the best community on the internet. The article itself is sobering and hard to argue with.
I agree that Iran waiting around to withstand the first overwhelming strikes from the US is a very bad strategic move. Almost as bad as not developing nuclear weapons in the first place.
But here’s an idea:
Iran declares publicly that it views the amassing of naval and air forces by the US as an existential threat to its security. It gives the US 24 hours to remove its forces from their staging area after which Iran will then take all necessary precautions to ensure the stability of its state. If there’s ever a case where a preemptive attack is justified by the laws of war, it’s this one.
The very unexpectedness of such a pronouncement might lead Trump to declare a sudden deal just as much as anything else would.
To have any utility, first strike from Iran needs to be big, but if they sink one or both carriers and do significant damage to Israel infrastructure, Iran will be branded as the aggressor in western media and US public will rally around Israeli flag, demanding long-term war of annihilation. To avoid that it must be US/Israel who does the first attack and in so undeniable way that if any non-warmonger is allowed to speak at least for 10 seconds uninterrupted on Barri Weiss TV, it will suffice to explain to normies it’s the Zionist who are the aggressors. Then the dead US soldiers can be blamed on Israel.
Are you suggesting reviving the doctrine of “launch under attack” — which was elaborated for exchanges of nuclear missiles, but applied here to exchanges of conventional and hypersonic ones?
I no longer remember what were the criticisms against “launch under attack” and whether they would be relevant in the current situation. Requires good early warning capabilities, too.
Will Schryver keeps pointing out that Iran’s missiles are about ten times faster than US cruise missiles and five to six times faster than US or Israeli bombers, so it’s quite possible that Iran’s “retaliation” hits targets before the USA/Israel first salvo reaches it’s targets.
And according to Patarames, the primary targets for Iran are the four US AN/TPY-2 radar stations around Iran. Disable those and the Israeli and Jordan airfields for the first 48-72 hours hours, and Iran is quite likely to come out on top as US/Israel has very diminished capability to either defend or strike.
it doesn’t matter what the media in the countries hellbent on destroying iran spin as propaganda. what matters is what iran’s allies and neighbours perceive. Chiefly China, Russia, Pakistan, Turkiye and Saudi, and to some extent India. I am assuming that at least China and Russia would be on board a pre-emptive strike.
I have no idea how this will play out. But a few things jump out at me.
1) The US and Israel have a huge ability to project air power through fighters squadrons. Iran has none. However, the F35 is a questionable asset. There have been a lot of news reports indicating that the F35 is a largely useless boondoggle. And I know people in the military who say similar things.
2) Israel – like them or not – has a vastly superior intelligence service to that of Iran.
3) Iran should have learned from the war in June how to protect its launchers better than the did in the June war. If they do their retaliation could be devastating.
4) Iran did indeed break through Israel’s air defense in the June war and inflicted heavy damage. And they claim that they held back on the bulk of the best weaponry. The fact that Trump and Israel want to limit Iran’s ballistic missiles seem to corroborate that claim.
5) The key unknown is the effectiveness of Russian, Chinese and Iranian radar and air defense. It those systems are effective, this will become an utter disaster for the United States and Israel. If they are not effective, it will give the US and Israel a huge advantage.
The Pentagon Pizza Index remains at doughcon 4 – nothing more than increased intelligence watch. Its USA → Iran Bilateral Threat Index did spike to a peak 23 Jan., but has fallen away.
They claim also to monitor a couple of Pentagon-adjacent gay bars for signs of increased night-shifts.
The contact who provided the initial quote gave multiple examples of people he knew personally yanked from regular duties to war prep.
Recent Epstein revelations have emphasized Israeli involvement and one discusses Trump’s alleged rape of an underage girl, Trump has already been showing signs of significant cognitive decline and the people around him are telling him what he wants to hear.
Trump’s initiatives over his first year have been failures and despite the people around him calling them successes he knows on some level that those are lies.
We are looking at an unstable old Man who is deep in denial and delusion surrounded by yes Men and Women and who appears to be on the verge of completely losing it.
When people are openly saying that demented Genocide Joe would have been a better choice things are dire indeed.
“Second, as we have been pointing out for a very long time, support for Israel in the US is declining generationally among Jews. Despite the great political clout of Zionist billionaires, younger Jews, starting in the early 2000s, were just not into Israel. ”
I think that doesn’t matter. Middle class Jews are irrelevant, what does matter are rich Jews like Howard Luttnick, John Paulson, Miriam Adelson, Bill Ackman, Mark Zuckerberg, etc.
Rich Zioniists are not immortal.
What a horror movie premise it would be though…
The question remains: how do the heirs of those “rich Zionists” view the situation then?
Many rich kids rebel against their parents. Others follow loyally.
100% inheritance tax.
You would think so, but perhaps rich zionists are innumerable.
It’s the Haredi in Israel that reproduce like crazy….
“Rich Zioniists are not immortal.”
They’re working on that, along with some rich goyim.
Touche!
I just had an epiphany— war to wag the dog….
Trump will have an excuse to NOT have to give a State of the Union address on Tuesday.
That would be a Tough Talk to give!
Speech cancelled: we are at war, emergency!
emergency powers!
alien and sedition acts!
no elections!
purloining from my late night weak effort last night:
Oh oh black betty, Ramadan
State of the Union Tuesday
Ramadan
Cargo jets in the air
Ramadan
White Christian Nationalists
Ramadan
It’s Ash Wednesday
Ramadan
I’m not sure how weather will impact any US “invasion”; but Tuesday looks like a possible bad weather day in Tehran and also Friday. So, It may be that next Tues. will be the day, both to get out of his SOTU diatribe and launch his war.
Trump will attack Iran to:
Wag The Dog / Look, a squirrel! -distract from Epstein
Answer to a Higher Power
In case Trump isn’t around much longer then Jared will still be running the show.
In the last administration, we had Edith Wilson II. In this administration, we can have the son-in-law pulling the strings.
Carrier-based aircraft provided a significant share of Israel’s ant-missile defenses, IIRC.
When the Gerald Ford arrives in the Mediterranean, it will be in place to make that happen. That will be an important index of when the attack on Iran will begin.
This report says the carrier will arrive by Sunday.
Trump said this morning that he will decide within ten days.
As I recall with the 12 Day War, Israel attacked 2 or 4 days after Trump gave a 2 week deadline.
The last few major campaigns started on Friday night after shabbat (so after sundown), I think. Since it was summer, sundown was late, so it was also after Friday prayers in Lebanon and Iran, where speeches were given by imams related to the expected battles. At the start of the 12 days when this happened it also kicked off two weeks of shelter in place orders with exceptions to get groceries/water before the full shelter in place order started. Fridays in Israel are not a work day so doing this meant when things started there weren’t a lot of civilians out and running around when the intercepts started (this was the assumption anyway, but a lot of people were ignoring the orders the first night when Tel Aviv had the first big showy missile barrage – even the mayor was out on his roof taking video).
Cat Burglar,
Two things that I keep wondering about, in both the media and in comments here at NC, have to do with air-craft carriers, and submarines.
There is a lot of mention of sinking aircraft-carriers. Why? The carriers are important because of the planes they carry, and they can only launch, and land, planes if the flight deck is whole and secure. Planes take off from the bow section of the flight deck, and land (on the newer models) on an angled extension of the stern end. Those should be the targets then, shouldn’t they? Bomb them, maybe with drones? Why sink the whole ship? If planes can neither take off from, or land on, the carrier, then its mission is curtailed pretty severely.
We’ve heard nothing about submarines being sent as part of the warship flotilla. Trump has been loud about shifting subs around before, but perhaps the military has managed to avoid that this time. It has been suggested that the damage to Iranian nuclear facilities during the 12-day fracas was from sub-launched cruise missiles, not bombers. That may indicate that the US has good reason to have sent subs to the Iranian theater–except, now that it occurs to me, there’s that naval exercise with Russian and Chinese vessels present going on…
A few commentators have mentioned subs, in the context of China sending a ship that is believed to be a spy ship, which if it is indeed that, is claimed to further be able to detect submarines. But yes, you are correct, they have barely been brought up.
The more general issue re aircraft carriers: if you recall the Millennium 2002 war game exercise, which simulated an invasion of an Iran-type country, the aircraft carrier was sunk in <24 hours. The exercise was rebooted with new constraints on Team Red so as to prevent a second sinking. That reaction has been depicted as how aircraft carriers are sacred cows. Not hard to think that MSM reporters get the idea that discussing the risk of them being sunk is a verboten topic.
In 2005 US Navy used USS America as a live-fire test bed. It survived four weeks of explosions to be eventually scuttled (for more data on how big ships die).
Carriers are very, very, very difficult to sink while it’s relatively easy to disturb or even stop their flight operations and turn them into a useless, floating barracks.
We also learned from the Yemen adventures that commanders of carriers rather avoid the risk of being shot at than continue the mission. Paradoxically they are too expensive and rare assets to be risked in a real war.
the point of sinking a carrier is to exact a high cost. Make it an albatross around Trump’s neck. Iran is in an existential war, it needn’t worry about public opinion in the US wanting vengeance.
A brief history of the US entanglement in the Middle East from WWII on. From Reason Magazine last year. (Yes, I know, Reason is a Libertarian outlet, but this is a pretty good recap of the last 40+ years as I remember them.)
A Brief, Bloody History of All the Times the U.S. Caused Chaos in the Middle East
The conflict with Iran is the latest in a decades-long series of regime change operations, long-term entanglements, and all-out wars that always seem to invite more problems.
https://reason.com/2025/06/23/a-brief-bloody-history-of-all-the-times-the-u-s-caused-chaos-in-the-middle-east/
Matthew Petti is always a good commentator and I remember hearing him say on a podcast that he’s not personally a Libertarian (not that that should necessarily matter)
I follow Reason via my RSS feed, the only right-wing pub so honored. Much of their argumentation is reflective of Scalia-inflected Originalism and hence unworthy of much time investment. But one staff writer, Jacob Sullum, is a First Amendment absolutist who reliably comes down hard on the Trump cabal’s attempts to destroy freedom of speech, whether the target of suppression is right wing, left wing, or wingless. (He also indulges in less reflexive bashing of “the left” than many on his team.) I learn more from him about First Amendment challenges and court findings than I do from anyone in the MSM. Regrettably, he’s an equally fervent defender of the Second Amendment as it is currently interpreted. It is a llbertarian rag, after all.
This will be a historic moment and we need an appropriately historic name for the moment. “The Decline and Fall of the Interregenum?” “Twilight of Ordinary Men?”
“Ramadanarama”
My most cynical thought:
Palantir and their military faction have been pushing hard to end the fancy exquisite weaponry model in the US military. They (as well as Musk) have railed against the F35 particularly, but also big ships and the whole model.
US failure here would suit them, and expedite the pivot to their Skynet & cheap drones and missiles model.
Versions of their pitch to end exquisite tech:
Palantir version: https://www.18theses.com/
Anduril version: https://www.anduril.com/news/rebooting-the-arsenal-of-democracy-anduril-mission-document
This transition is a multi year aim, with a trillion dollar prize.
Attacking Iran would be insanely stupid. So get ready for Trump to do it.
I couldn’t find the actual quote but it goes something like ‘If the enemy talks peace but continues to arm himself then he will attack.’ This has become very common lately. I expect Trump to attack Iran at some level.
My instinct have been screaming after Iran former president died in helicopter crash that Israel have alot of traitors in high place in Iran. So if Trump is entering war with Iran very likely they told him what asset they have in Iran and that gave him confidence that he can win this. In my opinion he is right. I will continue to say Russia and China are useless ally. They could have years arm Iran but they dint. Well after Iran it will be their turn
the hardest thing is to think against one’s wishes.
regime change is coming to Iran, and it will be swift.
I spent years in Iran, peopel have no clue how backward the country is.
Their automobile fleet is still french peugeot of the time of Shah.
The technological gap is immense. US can take out their leadership anytime.
Issue with Iran is only if troops on the ground are required, then any US president that will do that should be a traitor to his peope as we wil have a terrible quagmire and american loss of life.
But it wont come to that. Iran is done for because iranian people hate their government.
We will find out preety soon, unless Trump blinks.
Making Shit Up is a violation of our written site Policies. You’ve done this again and again. If you do not provide links to support further assertions like these, your comments will not be approved. I do not have time to keep rebutting your hasbara.
Iran has hypersonic missiles. The US does not.
Israel already tried decapitation strikes. They got some military leaders and scientists but no one in authority turned on the regime and the suddenly open authority slots were quickly filled, with not even a short-term dent in functioning.
Iran provides Russia with the advanced Shahed drones that Russia copied and further improved are important components of Russia’s drone force.
In the 12 day war, Israel thought it could disable Iran’s communications systems for 2-3 days. Iran got them back up in 8 hours. Iran in 10 days exhausted Israel’s supposed best in the world air defenses, requiring the US to enter. The result was not a fight but negotiated, performative tit for tat strikes.
You are lying about the public support for the government. 4 million came out on the anniversary of the revolution in support. Danny Haiphong says at 35:00 that in various ways 1/3 of the country supported the regime on the anniversary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T21RWeiArmc. Independent polls have consistently found that protestors are unhappy about the state of the economy, which is due to sanctions, but still support the government: https://www.rt.com/op-ed/474464-iran-protests-economy-sanctions-government/?ysclid=mltq7zg8x1527697459
And this clip shows you are also lying about the cars. Most are vastly newer than you say. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/XQW5E24DsF4
the wikipedia page for the minuteman 3 ICBM claims it reaches Mach 23.
Hypersonic missiles are not ballistic missiles. They are missiles that both go at high speeds and change direction in flight.
These confirm that the US does not have hypersonic missiles:
https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2025/7/22/us-looks-to-field-its-first-hypersonic-weapon-reenergize-efforts
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BAp5p1pCRo
https://defensescoop.com/2026/01/21/dark-eagle-hypersonic-weapon-army-fielding-plans/
thanks for the clarification
Hypersonics travel above Mach 5 and are maneuverable within the atmosphere. Pure ballistics only achieve those speeds above the atmosphere.
I believe the “sonic” part is the give away – there’s no sound in space, so there’s no speed of sound either.
Iran has a cadre of exceptional engineers of both genders.
just look at all those “oppressed iranian women” without head scarves in the last clip! we must bomb iran immediately to save those oppressed iranian women!
>regime change is coming to Iran, and it will be swift.
A very famous pop star named Taylor is coming to my house to give me a personal performance of her top hits, and it will be Swift!
(See, two can do magical thinking!)
>US can take out their leadership anytime.
So, why haven’t they?
If you think that Iran will be such a pushover, then please explain how it is that the U.S. failed to defeat the “backwards” Houthis of Yemen.
One would think that after stuxnet that Iran has hardened its infrastructure against such attacks, but I’m pretty sure the US hasn’t and as Laith Marouf recently discovered one only needs to open an email or visit a website without downloading anything to have the whole system compromised. I don’t know if Iran relies on US manufactured computers and software , but I imagine it would be very difficult to prevent or identify a malicious actor from visiting a website that would then compromise the system over a period of months or years even without vulnerabilities being embedded in the software or hardware to begin with.
Assuming Iran stays intact after three days of the war, then the wildcards of Saudi and Turkiye become increasingly important. The longer the war goes on and if it starts looking like Iran has the upper hand, it’s possible that they turn on Israel and the US and throw their cards in with China.
Similarly, Pakistan, bordering with Iran in the East, may be spurred to act, and if they do, eyes will be on India.
If the US commits to a sustained attack on Iran, this could seriously deplete their capabilities in other areas of contention. This would create an opportunity for other countries (China, Russia) to take action in their neighborhood thus overextending the US even further.
I’m trying to think of offramp scenarios, however likely or unlikely:
* High oil prices cause Trump and top officials to back off. Not sure who that would be. Wiles? Vance?
* MAGA in Congress votes against it (earlier attempts have failed along party lines)
* Iran and Trump administration make a deal, retrading the Obama deal basically (can Trump do it in a face-saving way and have the Israelis on board, beyond my imagination)
* Mass resignations in Pentagon (not acknowledged as a possibility anywhere)
* Color revolution and/or regime change before the strike (how? why would succeed now vs. prior attempts?)
* Iran agrees to Israel’s conditions (scifi/magic reality warping or mind control powers)
Trump just wrote on Truth Social that he wants China & Russia to help with Iran negotiations. Hey, Prez Trump. How about we include France, UK, and Germany as well and require Iran to submit to very strict nuclear inspections in exchange for sanctions relief and some Trump family business deals and a medium size Trump statue in downtown Tehran. We can call it TJCPOA. Trump Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. We can all go to brunch.
Col Macgregor live on Judge Nap at the moment going into nuts and bolts. Also saying Sunday for USS Ford’s arrival.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfOT5ITP2Uk
Here is a take from Russia but if I was Iran I would feel sort of alone in this mess. Changing ain’t stopping.
Russia and China are changing the US plan to attack Iran.
”the presence of Russian and Chinese naval units in the region does indeed complicate a potential US-Israeli operation for a number of reasons. “First, there is a risk of an accidental strike on a Russian or Chinese warship. Second, Moscow and Beijing could gather information on the actions of the US carrier strike group and warn the Iranians of an attack, allowing Tehran to more effectively repel it,” the source reasons.
However, as the expert noted, intelligence sharing is also possible outside of exercises. “This is the third reason why the Pentagon’s plans are ‘complicated’: if information is shared operationally, it could be used as targeting information for, say, Iranian anti-ship missiles. But this requires a high level of interaction and a political decision,” Lyamin added.”
” Russia, which is currently conducting scheduled exercises with Iran and China in the Strait of Hormuz, will not participate in blocking the waters, the expert believes. “Holding exercises is a military-political gesture. But the scale of the forces the US has already concentrated and plans to deploy to the region leaves no doubt: this won’t stop Trump. ”
https://m-vz-ru.translate.goog/world/2026/2/19/1396195.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Doesn’t mean that Russian and Chinese ships won’t use their missiles to knock down US missiles during an attack if needed. It as happened before. Pretty sure too that the Iranians have been hooked into real time satellite data and the exact position of every US ship and base been highlighted. For the Russians and the Chinese, especially the Russians, it will be a chance at payback for what the US has been doing to them over the years.
Russia is already at war with the US on one front. Iran would open a second front. On the Ukrainian front, Russia is fighting mostly Ukrianian soldiers with mostly US equipment; in Iran, the US will be fighting mostly Iranian soldiers with Iranian, Russian and Chinese equipment. Just like in Ukraine, there may be Russian and Chinese “consultants” helping the Iranians use their gear.
I don’t understand, however, why Russia went along with the charade of negotiations in Geneva, having to take a humiliating flight path for its negotiators. They know that the US is not negotiating in good faith and is using them as a cover to attack either themselves or via Israel first.
Simple. By taking part in this charade of a negotiation process, they buy time for the Russian military to do their thing on the ground in the Ukraine. If these negotiations were serious, you would have Rubio representing the US State Department and Lavrov representing the Russian Foreign Ministry instead of a bunch of businessmen play acting as negotiators.
Michael Hudson made an important point yesterday on Nima’s show (circa 5 minutes in) that given the sluggish uptake of markets (believing TACO?) if the decision has been made then insiders privy to that knowledge can make billions in arbitrage speculating on future markets (i.e. Trump and his cronies). Furthermore, apparently there are some limitations put by Congress that in theory force Trump’s hand to declare war this weekend. Not confirmation, but I found to be good points for consideration.
In any extended war, Israel will sustain unprecedented damage to its tiny country and small population. There is a definite risk that the leadership will be tempted to use its nuclear arsenal against Iran in an effort to survive as a nation. No one should doubt that the fanatics (both religious and non-religious) that control Israel would not hesitate to go nuclear in such a dire circumstance. With any luck, the prevailing winds will carry the nuclear fallout right back over the people who created it.
A concrete point is the possibility that the whole oil production of the region, in its entirety, be closed for a long time, and this is the surrender of EU and Japan since the US cannot supply this oil at all. The EU case is amazing, they destroyed Libya, blocked Russian oil, destroyed Syria annuling any pipeline from the Gulf to the Mediterranean circumventing Suez (and Hormuz, of course), it is too stupidity not to see a black hand behind.
On the other hand, neither Russia nor China (above all) are going to be quiet and doing nothing. Iran is not Venezuela.
My guess is Trump does not want a war with Iran. However, it’s worth remembering that Trump’s other job is a TV producer; he knows how to shape reality. Moreover, Trump is old enough to remember the Cuban missile crisis in which Kennedy brought the nation to the brink of nuclear war only to resolve the situation at the critical moment. In the end, JFK was a hero to many Americans.
Trump is not in a lose-lose situation. If he can scare the hell out of Americans and resolve the situation before a war breaks out, he will be, or at least he hopes to be, a hero.
Second, is the fact that Kennedy did not have Israel’s hands around his throat. Yet, Trump has a history of betraying people after he gets what he wants. If his tosses Netanyahu under the bus, all the better for his base and the mid-terms.
Lastly, is Israel’s nuclear weapons. The crucial question is; how does a country with nuclear weapons lose a war? How do they surrender and face occupation with a basement full of nuclear weapons. It’s reasonable to anticipate that if it appears Israel faces defeat, Netanyahu will use those weapons.
Meanwhile, if Israel weakens it will likely draw Türkiye into the fight in order to push Israel out of Syria, the Golan Heights, and/or Lebanon. Then Pakistan, a friend to China, might be willing to join the fight next, and on.
The prospect of war is perversely entertaining and as in many contests choosing a team or side adds to the experience. My chosen team is peace which requires the restoration of the long-neglected Congressional responsibility for the decision to engage in war. Sadly, we are in a post constitutional era. There isn’t much we as individuals can do, but I will email my elected representatives and firmly demand that they do their duty and oppose this. I will remind them that although I am but one voter, there are many more who share my views and will hold them accountable. Political parties are diminished; the numbers of independent voters are growing, and potentially small numbers of committed voters can make a difference. Here in Michigan, Arab voters plus other opponents of the Gaza genocide denied Harris Michigan’s electoral college votes. I am a dedicated pro peace one issue voter.
I am reminded to review the Iraq/Iran war from 1980 to 1988. It was long and brutal. The US proxy at the time was Iraq who we supplied with weapons including precursors to chemical warfare to devastate Iran. I think the Rumsfeld demon was part of that. For sure the Reagan demon was.
That was a lot of endurance on the Iranian side. Hmmmm. Eight years. Ya think MAGA will support that? Among many other considerations?
Good article! Cannot disagree with much that’s covered here, looks like we’re in for it. But the long term implications for our country seem to have been ignored, but we’ve seen numerous examples of how the Epstein class is in it for themselves, not their country, so more of the same this time too? (Congress, where are you?)
First off, let’s hope beyond hope that the nuclear genie stays in the bottle because if nukes get tossed around by anybody, then the odds that America (or any other nation) will eventually be attacked with nukes just took a huge jump up.
Second, this may be an attack against Iran, but the potential impact to China and Russia is considerable. At what point does China just decide no more exporting any critical materials to America? Trump had to back off on tariffs, why does he think he has suddenly gained the whip hand now? It’s not as if any serious attempt to re-industrialize critical industries in America is even being made, and those efforts that were showing some progress under Biden were crushed by Trump because “Biden”. (Not really a coherent industrial policy, but what is making sense about any of this right now? It just seems to be a grift and scam to get richer now more than anything else.) America is not going to benefit in any way from this war even if it “wins”.
As for Israel, I find it hard to believe that they think this will all work out for the best for their country. It didn’t last time. I expect Israel will get pounded even more than last time because that’s what stopped the last war.
From the comments, I’m surprise that a good case why the US has an interest in attacking Iran hasn’t been clearly articulated. It’s as if these are just personal and/or partisan interests. Rather, much like Russia, we should be asking, what does the US stand to gain. I think foremost, it really hurts China. What happens to the Belt Road? When the US controls Middle Eastern oil, how does that affect China? If the US takes Iran, what happens to Russia’s plans to change commodity trade routes? I would think its if anything a severe blow to China. Second, what if the US topples the Iranian government? A huge country, extremely educated population, rather young pro-Western population with really cheap assets to buy up cheap. Very valuable cheap assets. It will be an economic bonanza for the EU and US, much like Eastern Europe has been over the past years. This is the EU growth model. We really have to ask ourselves, ignoring the Israeli part of the equation, what is the upside and will they think it’s worth it? Who gains and how much. Eye on the prize.
The Israeli’s are not rational actors and neither is Trump, however Trump is all about Trump, all the time.
If he thinks a War will make him look bad he will find a way to avoid it while saving face, in these circumstances that is going to be very difficult if not impossible.
That is, to my mind what will make the difference between “Peace” and War, Trump’s ego.
If the Nobel Committee promised him his very own absolutely unique peace prize embodied in an NFT it might do the trick.
Trump may think going to war is less bad then having a major Epstein leak…
Ramadan started yesterday, ends 30 days later on mar 19. End of Ramadan is country wide celebration/feasting begins after dark, continues into the night. This might be seen as best time to attack, seems assets still moving into position.
Does seem Israel has last say, can force war at any time. Given that, seems likely it will happen, and if so before mar 20.
In a perverse sort of way, I hope he does attack Iran, and I also hope even more that the attack fails – badly, as many expect it will.
Why? Because I want to see the US shown up as the paper tiger it has become, and I want to see Israel silenced and humilated. Of course, I don’t want all those people to be killed, or hurt in any way.
Both countries pose a huge threat ot the world, and the stability of the Middle East.
Both countries need to be brought down a peg or two or twenty!
Both countries must be stopped from their non-stop killing, and destroying so much around them.
Both countries [not their citizens, their leaders and elites] are deeply corrupted and truly evil.
Both countries prevent peace – anywhere and everywhere!