In photos: Jesse Jackson’s life, activism and politics Axios
Jesse Jackson Made It Possible for Democrats to Speak About Palestine Zeteo
Toxic metals found in bananas after Brazil mining disaster Science Daily (Kevin W)
The mysterious symptom popping up in some GLP-1 users Vox
Weight-loss wonder pills prompt scrutiny of their key ingredient MedicalXpress (fk)
Climate/Environment
The Paradox That’s Supercharging Climate Change Wired
How climate change could be driving ‘killer’ cold outbreaks in oceans CNN
Excruciating tropical disease can now be transmitted in most of Europe, study finds Guardian
CHINESE CLIMATIC HISTORY REWRITTEN
43.1C today at Yuanyang it s the highest temperature ever recorded in China in April.
Record is sweeping all.East Asia with over 30C in Koreas.
Updates later https://t.co/7EELzHVib9— Extreme Temperatures Around The World (@extremetemps) April 14, 2024
China?
How the US Won Back Chip Manufacturing China Talk
Sofa so bad: China’s home-furnishing sector hits a do-or-die moment South China Morning Post
Africa
Sudan: how warring factions gained influence in the country’s food system – and what it means for the current conflict The Conversation
Record heat rots cocoa beans threatening Ivory Coast agriculture PhysOrg
South of the Border
Disappearances in Mexico surge by 200% over 10 years Guardian (resilc)
European Disunion
Christine Lagarde to leave ECB before the end of her 8-year term Financial Times. Subhead: “Central banker wants to give Macron and Merz chance to pick successor before French presidential election.” No archived version yet.
>Munich Security Conference – the poisoned love letter of the USA Nachdenkseiten via machine translation (Micael T)
Slovakia & Hungary Shouldn’t Be Fooled By The US’ Feigned Friendship Andrew Korybko
Old Blighty
What Nigel Farage’s new team tells us about his bid to run Britain Politico (Kevin W)
Israel v. The Resistance
Medics in UK and US say they have been barred from Gaza after speaking out Guardian (resilc)
* * * From Waltz to Hormuz: Why a Gulf escalation would backfire systemically Middle East Monitor (resilc). Important. Also confirms out skepticism that oil prices would rise only to $108 a barrel if Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz
Beijing moves to contain Mossad’s expanding reach in Iran The Cradle (Chuck L)
Peeling Back the US Information Operation in Iran Larry Johnson
Just insane 5 more tankers have launched in the past hour, cant emphasise enough how big this airlift is. https://t.co/ggVpaGHBXY
— WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 (@WarMonitor3) February 18, 2026
Over the past 6 hours, essentially anything that can fly and refuel other aircraft has flown towards the Middle East. https://t.co/i5VW0v5Swj
— Oliver Alexander (@OAlexanderDK) February 18, 2026
We are witnessing the largest U.S. Air Force combat buildup in Europe and the Middle East since the Gulf War, alongside major naval deployments.
This is not signaling “negotiations” with Iran, something is coming soon.
6 x USAF E-3G Sentry AWACS from the U.S. to Europe.
Over… pic.twitter.com/gysTLer2kY
— Suppressed News. (@SuppressedNws1) February 18, 2026
Final Pieces Moving Into Place For Potential Attack On Iran TWZ (nigel rooney)
Iran’s Khamenei Warns US Warship Can Be Sunk | Says America ‘Will Not Succeed’ WION, YouTube
I’m telling you. Israel is planning to use nukes Defend Democracy
New Not-So-Cold War
How the war will end Events in Ukraine
‘Meaningful Progress,’ Says Witkoff – but 6-Hour Geneva Talks Reportedly Strained Kyiv Post
Ukrainian units face ‘icy hell’ in Kupyansk-Uzlovoy area — Russian Defense Ministry TASS (guurst)
Facing a demographic catastrophe, Ukraine is paying for troops to freeze their sperm BBC
* * * BREAKING:
🇮🇳🇷🇺 India's heroic heart could not stand it. After US threats, India gave up Russian oil
Map showing the movement of Russian crude tankers.
The majority of Russian tankers are seen heading to China, which is an entirely different picture from just a few months ago,… pic.twitter.com/H47B7B8pYo
— Megatron (@Megatron_ron) February 18, 2026
Russian Navy will break any blockade if West continues detaining country’s tankers: Official Anadolu Agency
Did the Brits try to crash the Ukraine peace talks? (VIDEO) RT (Kevin W)
Big Brother is Watching You Watch
ICE Is Inside Your Phone Glass Empires
My smart sleep mask broadcasts users’ brainwaves to an open MQTT broker aimilios. Bugs: “Easily read other people’s brain waves and see their REM sleep! What could possibly go wrong.”
Side-Channel Attacks Against LLMs Bruce Schneier. Important. Another reason not to use AI. From one of the three papers cited:
We demonstrate the attack across 28 popular LLMs from major providers, achieving near-perfect classification (often >98% AUPRC) and high precision even at extreme class imbalance (10,000:1 noise-to-target ratio). For many models, we achieve 100% precision in identifying sensitive topics like “money laundering” while recovering 5-20% of target conversations.
Imperial Collapse Watch
Out Of Control Aurelien. Today’s must read.
* * * The University of Maryland has called the sewage spill one of the largest in U.S. history. NBC
Potomac Sewage Spill Becomes Ecological Disaster and Political Fight New York Times
* * * The Globalist Delusion Foreign Affairs
Trump 2.0
The “Board of Peace” Already Has a Corruption Problem Lucy Komisar. Important. While there is every reason to expect the Board of Peace to be corrupt, given its structure as a Trump enrichment/aggrandizement operation, Komisar identifies how Trump is building in even more ways to skim.
Trump’s New Voter I.D. Threat Is His Gravest Attack on Democracy Yet New Republic (resilc)
USDA Takes Action To Lower Food Costs on Consumers and Strengthen the Supply Chain through Proposed Changes to Line Speed Rules USDA. Robin K: “Food processors deregulated. Why does this announcement not inspire confidence?”
The Council of Economic Advisers Discredits Itself Adam Levitin. On the war v. the CFPB
GAO launches investigation into DHS whistleblower treatment The Hill
ICE Rampage
Home Invasion or ICE? The Survival Rules Are the Same and You Need Them Now W.A. Lawrenece (ma)
ICE Expands Watchlist Effort Ken Klippenstein (Chuck L)
FBI won’t co-operate on Alex Pretti investigation, state officials say BBC
Why violent crime is dropping in US cities The Hill
L’affaire Epstein
NEW:
🇺🇸 Rep. Ted Lieu says Epstein Files shows Donald Trump raping children:
“Donald Trump is in the Epstein files thousands and thousands of times. In those files, there are highly disturbing allegations — allegations — of Donald Trump raping children and threatening to kill… pic.twitter.com/Vvsv7KUVPn
— Megatron (@Megatron_ron) February 18, 2026
Mamdani
Mayor Mamdani threatens to raise NYC property taxes to plug budget gap Gothamist
Our No Longer Free Press
The New York Times performs loyal stenography — masquerading as journalism — to protect AOC Glenn Greenwald
Goodbye and Good luck, David Brooks Robert Reich. resilc cites:
For four decades, big money has engulfed Washington and many state capitals — increasingly drowning out the voices of average Americans, filling the campaign coffers of candidates who’ll do its bidding, financing attacks on organized labor on immigrants and on trans people, Black people, and Latinos, and bankrolling a vast empire of right-wing hacks, pundits, and politicians.
That David Brooks, among the most thoughtful of all conservative pundits, has not seen or acknowledged this — despite his commendable interest in personal moral development and character — is a sign of how far even the moderate right has moved away from the reality most Americans live in every day.
Economy
World Uncertainty Index surges to 106,862 in February – worse than COVID, 2008 crash, and 9/11 combined Economic Times
Global Shift Toward Sovereign Launch Gains Momentum Amid Geopolitical Tensions SatNews
Mr. Market is Edgy
Fund managers take most bearish stance on dollar for a decade Financial Times
AI
AI contributes to inflating global debt, already approaching $346 trillion or 310% of GDP CADTM (Micael T)
‘Students Are Being Treated Like Guinea Pigs:’ Inside an AI-Powered Private School 404 Media. More on Alpha School, which was included in a recent post.
Rumors of AGI’s arrival have been greatly exaggerated Gary Marcus
The AI jobs-apocalypse is here Unherd
Pa. farmer turns down $15M from data center developers: Hear him explain why PennLive, YouTube (resilc). My hero.
The Bezzle
Trump administration backs Kalshi, Polymarket as states move to ban prediction markets Associated Press (Kevin W)
Utah governor blasts Trump regulator for blessing prediction markets The Hill. Headline in e-mail alert: “GOP war over prediction markets”
Class Warfare
US College Underemployment Hits 42.5% as first-job prospects weaken Financial Express
What We Can Learn From North Carolina’s “Moral Mondays” Matthew Cunningham-Cook, In These Times
Antidote du jour: Mark T: “Finding shelter in the midsummer heat.”
See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here.
And a bonus. Actually in bear-prone areas they are known to be skilled at getting into cars:
Imagine having to explain this to your insurance with no video 🐻 pic.twitter.com/Q9cfgMXhla
— positive side of X 🌞 (@positivityofx) February 16, 2026
A second bonus:
The horses knew he was near.
Apparently he was the owner of a ranch. His daughter brought him there to be with the horses one last time… pic.twitter.com/1kzS1MiX0W
— The Figen (@TheFigen_) February 16, 2026
And a third:
The leak is coming from inside the box pic.twitter.com/o3uRizJnp1
— cats with powerful impression 🐾 (@catshealdeprsn) February 16, 2026
171 comments
Comments are closed.
Re the strange glp-1 symptom that users are reporting to their docs, are they sure it isn’t just the result of noeliberal/neocon tsunami the world is facing lately?
It’s sad but I would not be surprised if nukes were used in an upcoming attack on Iran. No taboo need be broken, as it can just be denied, but if the USA and Israel are suffering loses they can admit to using nukes, call it necessary, and most of the western public will buy it.
I also think that one of the priorities of our current leadership (Netanyahu, Karp, Trump, etc) is to broaden the Overton window, so normalizing nukes would have value beyond the actual blast.
I think there is similar problem to when some people suggested Russia show drop nuke somewhere to “show resolve”, which would make West to capitulate, except it’s never explained how that should work in practice, in fact it should be fairly obvious that detonating nuke above Black sea would just tarnish Russia’s standing around the world and make West/Ukraine to dig in even more.
Se lets say Israel successfully nukes Fordow, except that doesn’t get them to the desired outcome (destruction of Iran state, or at least militarily emasculate it), it just gives Iran license to finally develop own nukes. So they need to drop a lot more nukes, but even if they try to confine themselves the various dispersed military sites, I don’t think western elites will be able to contain the fallout from this, the Gaza genocide is already straining them. And of course in the rest of the world Israel will become radioactive, I think even China will be forced out if its “do nothing” posture and start applying sanctions. Dropping nukes directly on Tehran will not make things easier for Israel either.
I said it before, so I will repeat it:
I wonder whether other powers (such as Russia, China, Pakistan, possibly even France) will take preventive measures as soon as they infer from whatever SIGINT/HUMINT that Israel is preparing an atomic strike. For instance, larding Dimona with oreshniks and sinking Israeli submarines wherever they are.
After all, the Israelis’ intent to throw atomic bombs at Iran would prove they have become demented, since:
1) There is a general understanding that nuclear arsenals are a deterrent against nuclear attacks, or employable at most only if a country is under sheer existential threat — not as a means to actively achieve one’s offensive geostrategic objectives when other means have failed.
2) If Israel uses nuclear-tipped missiles and bombs against non-nuclear Iran, then what prevents its lunatic leaders from resorting to the same weapon against everybody else, under whatever pretext, as long as they find it expedient to achieve their national objectives?
If the USA were led by half-way reasoning political and military leaders, they would already have quietly coordinated with those other countries to defang Israel as soon as the situation becomes dangerous.
With the UN being silent throughout this abject lawlessness and viciousness coming from the Zionist entity, I am truly puzzled why the rest of the world so far has not taken matters into its own hands and done something.
One hoped that the Zionists take the threat of being nuked by Pakistan seriously. Otherwise the cowardice on display by those who could do something about this barbaric behavior by the Zionist entity is truly appalling.
If memory serves, at the start of the genocide when the zionazis were suggesting a nuke on Gaza, Pakistan had said if any nukes are used against Arabs, they will erase israel.
Sorry cannot find any links and don’t recall where I read that.
Separately, if Jordan does allow use of their soil for launching or assisting in Iran attacks, perhaps that will be the straw that breaks the back and they will finally rise up and overthrow the zionist lapdogs running the country now.
We won’t get that far.
Iran will obliterate Israel if that were to happen. It is easily within Iran’s means. And no one ex the US would blame them either.
Don’t raise my hopes. /sarc Such a thing likely would lead to other consequences, further acts, that I cannot foresee but can fear.
Iran threatens all out war if attacks, they’ve been under continuous attacks, they might mean it.
South China morning post says Iran offering ‘trillionaire dollar’ oil deal to us companies, if true trump might listen… 10% is real money, outbidding israel.
Okayyyyy……but…..
Nukes on subs? If Israel is “obliterated,” and I agree it’s possible, what stops the subs from just cancelling Christmas for the rest of the world?
Would US subs gronk Israeli ones to keep that from happening? Presuming they even know where those subs are?
Really the bigger issue is we’ve gone from a MAD nuclear doctrine to merely mad, and Benedict Donald doesn’t give a hoot what anybody else thinks of him, so why not light up WW3!
Well, come on all of you, Epstein compromised strong men
Netanyahu needs your help again
He’s got himself in a terrible jam
Way down yonder adjacent to the promised land
So sail out the navy and gin up some funds
We’re gonna have a whole lotta fun
And it’s one, two, three
What are we fighting for?
Don’t ask me, I don’t give a damn
Next stop is the promised land
And it’s five, six, seven megatons
Open up the pearly gates
Well there ain’t no time to wonder why
Whoopee! we’re all gonna die
Well, come on Bibi, let’s move fast
Your big chance has come at last
Now you can go out and get those Persians
‘Cause the only good Iranian is one no longer casting aspersions
And you know that peace can only be won
When we’ve blown ’em all to kingdom come
And it’s one, two, three
What are we fighting for?
Don’t ask me, I don’t give a damn
Next stop is the promised land
And it’s five, six, seven megatons
Open up the pearly gates
Well there ain’t no time to wonder why
Whoopee! we’re all gonna die
Come on Wall*Street, don’t be slow
Why man, this is war a-go-go
There’s plenty good money to be made
By supplying the MIC with the tools of its trade
But just hope and pray that if they drop the bomb
They drop it with some aplomb
And it’s one, two, three
What are we fighting for?
Don’t ask me, I don’t give a damn
Next stop is the promised land
And it’s five, six, seven megatons
Open up the pearly gates
Well there ain’t no time to wonder why
Whoopee! we’re all gonna die
Country Joe Mcdonald – Feel Like i’m Fixing to Die Rag – Woodstock ’69
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRl6-bHlz-4&list=RDeRl6-bHlz-4
For some reason, this really hit a spark for me. I took the liberty of copying it into a Facebook post, crediting, of course the original location and author. I’m afraid the strange beast is coming again.
Thanks for kudos gras~
The would be a lot radioactivity in Iran, not the figurative type. It would immediately be a different world. And not a good one.
Put another way, were the nuclear genie to come out of his/her bottle, s/he would not go back in.
I believe Iran, if attacked again, will not stop at 12 days in pummeling Israel.
This is from several days ago, so apologies if it has been cited, but Crooke is among the best for bringing up things most others miss. China has given Iran a refined radar system and a satellite coordinating capacity which is a material difference.
Still, as Lambert would say, this is an overly dynamic situation.
Alastair Crooke: The Powerful Forces Pushing Trump into an Unwinnable War v Iran
It would for a minute, until consequences started to manifest in RoW.
I’d half convinced myself that Iran was going to be another TACO. This administration is so hyper-attuned to the state of the financial markets (“You’re worried about Epstein when the Dow is at 50,000!”) that a hot war seems unthinkable. But that level of build up sure looks ominous.
The TACO thing is not a thing in any way, it is wishful thinking.
They have multiple back up plans in most scenarios.
They are very single minded and determined, vicious.
Until the past week when the US started moving in more assets, I felt the same way. The deployment made more sense as a bluff / rear-guard, but we’ve crossed that point now and it looks like this is going to happen.
Only time will tell the outcome; as the first Ibadis said, “God will be the arbiter”. Just a few last thoughts…
1. Anything’s possible, but I think all the talk of nuclear weapon use is a meme based in fear instead of calculation. In a way, it’s just free threat propaganda for the Israelis / Trump. On top of the other players (Russia, China, Pakistan), the Iranians are subtle enough to keep their options open and wouldn’t take this path if they didn’t have a credible deterrent.
2. People keep mentioning the Hormuz Strait, and I don’t think Iran is bluffing so if the war starts, they probably will selectively block it. But I don’t think that would actually be their main strategic focus; the Western media & govs fixate on it (which makes it good for signalling & deterrence before the shooting) because it matches Western economic monomania. That Western fixation also makes it the expected operation though.
3. I feel a little crazy saying it, but one thing nobody seems to be considering is that maybe Iran can “touch” CONUS. Probably not through conventional means, but maybe much of Iran’s posture (including the negotiations) has been to convince the American public that whatever happens next is on Trump. If they’ve defused the “rally around the flag” effect among the people that would actually fight (Epstein’s crimes sure won’t help recruitment), hitting the actual US would be extremely demoralizing and therefore effective.
4. It’s just one internet rando’s intuition, but the similarities between this and the Russo-Japanese War are pretty striking. I haven’t seen many in the West, even those against the war or that accept the US may lose an aircraft carrier, consider how badly this could damage the US. If that 20th century war is anything to go by, this will be the beginning of the end of the American republic (for better or worse).
If we’re lucky, for everyone’s sake, the US is just massively bluffing and will back down with some kind of deal. I don’t believe it though so one can only hope (and I really don’t like hope) the best for everyone in the middle.
seems like this is playing out like Venezuela. massive build up with the plan for a targeted strike on Iranian leadership. however delusional it might be. All of this deployment is big money for contractors and in the end $ is really all DJT is about.
Madness! Bibi et al — and the includes his supporters and cheerleaders in the US — want Iran destroyed so the world must rush toward destruction? I’m with Yves. I hope it will get that far. Having said that I recall a statement by Camus that goes something like this. You just go on without hope and without despair.
Would nukes start flying if Russia and China obliterated the US fleet and let Iran take out the air bases, using conventional weapons, once the second carrier gets there? Would Trump annihilate the world if his concentration of military forces in one area provided a primo shooting gallery for the world powers that must by now be thoroughly sick of his derangement and duplicity? It seems he disregards the possibility of something like that happening, that he assumes “our” military might is so fearsome that no adversaries would dare to attack it, even if with an armada in their back yard. Is he right to assume that no one will dare to bell the cat?
I am not a nuclear engineer, but I think the elephant in the room is the “contaminated Middle East crude oil”.
What is the acceptable level of radioactivity in crude oil?
How long does it take, after a nuclear event, before the world can use the ME oil again?
Have no fear, oil and gas production has always brought up more than just petrol gold. Radium, radon, etc. all come with the package. Here’s an interesting interview about someone who has been writing about this topic with respect to the fracking occurring in Pennsylvania.
Excruciating tropical disease can now be transmitted in most of Europe, study finds | Guardian
Yikes! I survived Chikungunya and developed one of the long form sequelae (the muscular form, which is apparently less painful than the more common joint form). It’s not mentioned in the piece but it is incurable and untreatable: the pain does not respond to anything. In my case the long form sequelae mostly disappeared after a decade following the first time I had Covid. I participated in several years of studies on it but got the impression the doctors just threw it in the medical mystery bucket given the sheer load of medical crises ongoing. Europe (and the US, because I’m sure this is coming for the US as well) is completely unprepared, it’s going to fully debilitate significant swathes of the population just like Long Covid has.
Aiees, how awful
There is a live virus vaccine but not available here even though Chikungunya is described as endemic in the north, particularly in the popular tourist destination Chiang Mai.
Yours truly is a monster fan of live virus vaccines, since they strengthen the immune system generally.
It’s on the list of offerings here:
https://www.travelhealth.net/vaccines/
But this update says it was suspended:
https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/safety-availability-biologics/fda-update-safety-ixchiq-chikungunya-vaccine-live
Will e-mail the clinic at the first link and see re status.
Oh Yves, that is so kind, but you do not need to go through the effort – since I survived the acute form (twice thanks to the weird thing with Covid!) I am supposed to have robust immunity for life. I’m not sure if it crosses clades (there’s an Asian variant and an African, I had the African) but I am exceedingly careful about mosquitoes these days!
“Out Of Control Aurelien” Today’s must read.
Agreed. This is an excellent essay that shows how it is no longer the poor that must suffer the stresses and strains of modern society but has worked its way up to the middle class who never saw it coming. I do not know how this will work out as we move forward but it may be that the middle class will find themselves supporting radical political movements to protect themselves and no, Reform does not count. They are simply the Conservatives 2.0.
The kids of current PMC can’t afford their own residence (without parental help) and have to pay off student loans. They also mostly won’t inherit much as their parents’ house(s) get leveraged or sold to pay for care when they are elderly.
Aurelian makes the observation that politicians no longer make it their business to organize large numbers of voters in pursuit of voters’s interests, and the skills to do so have faded away. The idea of a Party based in trade unions or some other social or economic class is simply not thought of. And, by implication, the idea of acting as social and political architect of the infrastructure of systems is simply no longer in the portfolio of political figures. He doesn’t say it, but I will: the ambition to be a statesman has been replaced by auditions for the role of celebrity spokesmodel.
Then let it be an opportunity for socialists to establish a beach head as the ‘leaders’ continue to collectively lose it.
ah, Monty Python socialism! (now for something completely different!)
in the 19th century, “socialism” was full of contradictions. Bakunin Marx Kropotkin the list is seemingly endless.
now, not so much
AMEN, EMT
Aurelien (thank you for the article!) gives great analysis but doesn’t have what it takes to MIND MELD with the working class and lead them and think of ways to sell them on real life revolution.
Online life has become BORING & BLAND
The kids are into LIVE EXPERIENCES these days
let us be the ones they flock to outside
to hear of the greatest story: THEIR FUTURE
THE FUTURE IS OURS, NC
AS LONG AS WE DONT KILL EACH OTHER, WE WIN AUTOMATICALLY
The best long for anticipation of this essay I know of is Ulrich Beck’s, 1992 “Risk Society” (recommended me in comments here about 12-15 years ago.
Link to pdf: https://sociologiac.net/2023/08/15/risk-society-ulrich-beck/#google_vignette
That essay was a good read indeed. Left with me lots to chew on. The built in complexity that is so hard to change reminds of big the software systems that I used to have to deal with in libraries – huge and difficult to change and also lock in would happen with certain systems only compatible with certain systems. We have learned to accept disruptive upgrades and changes that we don’t want in anything that runs with software and now we’re accepting that kind of thing everywhere. Also, Aurelian touches on but doesn’t say outright that something else that changed in politics is the run it like a business attitude. They think of themselves as managers and CEOs not politicians – costs are their big concerns, not people. When people would whine about poor business management at the college, I would always say but it isn’t a business, it’s a school. Blinks and blank looks in response.
As long as people just shrug their shoulders and pay for pseudo-business class, new appliances that they shouldn’t need, cars with bells and whistles they don’t want or need, etc. I don’t see the PMC steeping up. It will take more than unhappiness, it will the necessities of life like food, water and shelter in jeopardy and then it will likely be too late
Unfortunately, the total absence of suitable “radical political movements” means that people will need to migrate toward something that can be cobbled together on short notice. A charismatic leader of a nationalist movement (aka fascism) seems to be the easiest to fabricate, so that is the likely result most places.
I don’t think Trump qualifies because he is not sufficiently competent to retain majority support for any period of time, but he has certainly broken down any remaining institutional barriers in the US. When the charismatic leader comes along there won’t be any restraints.
I have been waiting for Trump for a long time. All the special presidential emergency and national security powers, and national security exceptions in laws, from the Cold War and Terror War, have been just sitting there — used occasionally and covertly — waiting for someone to knit them all together into a continuous garment of power.
I was wondering who would finally do it. We might be lucky that he is such an incompetent political manager. But since I discovered that, I have been waiting for the next Trump, the skilled one, to come, as you are.
You can get a clue from the reaction to Trump’s proposal to cap credit card interest rates. I suspect that this proposal emerges from Trump’s empathy for the common man — the same impulse that leads to tipping the groundskeepers who accidentally emerge into his view. It is NOT systematic or analytic.
Still, it is a no-brainer proposal for debt relief. Watch the cockroaches scatter!
I saved off about 4 robust quotes, here is one
“economists and others pretend to do so, and there’s an entire industry devoted to the proposition that the future is unavoidable and inevitable, and all we can do is lie down before the oncoming steamroller”
Aurelien’s article reads to me like a detailed instance of Joseph Tainter’s theory in the Collapse of Complex Socities that societies collapse due to complexity.
For example, Rome conquers new territories. Some of that wealth must be diverted to military and political structures necessary to manage the empire. The system becomes more complex. The process iterates. Structures created to solve old problems remain while new structures are continually created to address new problems. While complexity always increases, the benefits it provides decline. The first conquests are the most profitable: but sustaining them requires continual expansion farther away, requiring higher costs for less return.
At some point the marginal returns on additional complexity turn negative. The system costs more than it’s worth. Complex systems like bureaucracies rarely disband voluntarily – regardless, disentangling complexity that is no longer needed can be impractical. Collapse (a rapid reduction in complexity) is often less a failure than a rational choice by. When people realize that the price they are paying for the system is less than the benefits it provides to them, they opt out. Romans yield to the barbarians because tribute to the barbarians will cost them less than taxes paid to legions who weren’t doing much to defend them anyway.
This is essentially a theory of energy. Tainter’s diminishing marginal returns on complexity parallels the idea of energy return on investment (EROI). It takes energy to get energy. Just as part the wealth generated by Roman conquests was diverted to manage them, some of the energy produced by oil drilling must be expended to extract the resource. And just as early conquests were the most profitable, EROI declines over time as the most accessible sources are depleted. Half a century ago the EROI for oil extraction was about 20 to 1; now it’s closer to 7 to 1. If EROI is zero, there is no amount of money that would make oil drilling worthwhile.
Energy is the key resource that can sustain complexity. Tainter says a new source of energy is the one thing that can give a complex society a new lease on life. Aurelien’s article describes the degradation of systems that no-one understandings. To me, this sounds like a system where the marginal returns on complexity are turning negative. In other words, the cost of energy is too high and climbing. If so, different politics might tweak the rate of decline but cannot change the overall picture. The U.K. may be in a particularly bad situation due to its reckless involvement in Ukraine, but EROI is declining worldwide.
I think our masters think they can manage decline with AI surveillance. Well, AI ratchets up complexity and energy use. Even if oppression deters the population from opting out sooner, the cost will be to accelerate the process overall.
I talk a bit about Tainter here.
great comment, thanks.
that is paradoxically one of the things giving me hope. As the dystopian surveillance and sanction state expands, it’s going to hit real world limits that will stop it in its tracks. Energy use is increasing at a much faster rate than economic activity and war will bring those limits closer. I may be wrong, but a chaotic winddown is preferable to a managed winddown if managed by the Epstein/davos class. Under scenario 2, the 1% feed on the 99%; in scenario 1, who knows what will happen. As you said, it’s better to let the barbarians come than to keep feeding the system that enslaves us.
Quite a lot of Aurelian’s essay reminded me of the link posted here yesterday about John Ruskin’s concept of Illth: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/02/why-does-economics-refuse-to-acknowledge-john-ruskins-illith-as-in-harmful-activity.html
Aurelian tries to explain the way that a lot of negative ideas, whilst not sounding negative in the beginning but turning out that way later, combine to create toxic outcomes that were never predicted.
As Yves mentioned in the Ruskin piece, many people warned about this in the 19th Century.
Ruskin, William Morris, Wordsworth, Coleridge, Shelley, de Tocqueville and many more. As well as plenty in the 20th Century.
I think we get it here but who else does in the West in any position of power?
Nobody, obviously.
File under AI: From Bleeping Computer.
Infostealer malware found stealing OpenClaw secrets for first time
https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/infostealer-malware-found-stealing-openclaw-secrets-for-first-time/
re: Gaza BERLINALE
considering realities on the ground this is benign. But even this causes backlash.
Javier Bardem, Tilda Swinton and Adam McKay Among 81 Names to Sign Open Letter Criticizing Berlin Film Festival for ‘Silence’ on Gaza: ‘We Are Dismayed’ (EXCLUSIVE)
https://variety.com/2026/film/global/javier-bardem-tilda-swinton-letter-berlinale-gaza-silence-1236665382/
I believe not a single German name.
So far.
Of course one may add that a longtime director like Jim Jarmusch hasn´t come out this way either argueing that ultimately when doing films – which are very expensive to make as small as they may be – compared to other things – you will always end up with criminals. Since mostly criminals have the means you need as artist.
Considering the complicity of governments you have the same problem eventually when you are dependent on state resources.
Also some may have problems considering this
part of the statement:
“(…)
As the Palestine Film Institute has said, “we are appalled by Berlinale’s institutional silence on the genocide of Palestinians, and its unwillingness to defend the freedoms of speech and expression of filmmakers”. Just as the festival has made clear statements in the past about atrocities carried out against people in Iran and Ukraine, we call on the Berlinale to fulfil its moral duty and clearly state its opposition to Israel’s genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes against Palestinians, and completely end its involvement in shielding Israel from criticism and calls for accountability.
(…)”
Why should any filmmaker – of whaetever department – ruin his or her prospects? Especially when currently many are deeply worried about the ongoing industry crisis in Germany and leaving the business altogether.
The VIPS in the list can afford it. The 99,99% who would never sign, cannot.
So German officials needn´t worry. Capitalism will solve the issue of potential disobedience.
🙈🙉🙊💣
If you think that is something, the British Museum has been removing the word ‘Palestine’ and people of “Palestinian descent” in some of its displays as it is not historically ‘meaningful’. It wasn’t enough that the Israelis have been bombing Palestinian culture into rubble but now western institutions under legal threats by Israelis are erasing Palestinians from the historical record-
https://www.timesofisrael.com/british-museum-removes-some-references-to-palestine-after-accuracy-complaints/
wow
The issue is far more nuanced than the Israeli and zionist adjacent western media such as the Telegraph claim. The article below puts the matter into context. As much as anything, more lies and propaganda from the zionists.
https://www.museumsassociation.org/museums-journal/news/2026/02/row-after-british-museum-removes-term-palestine-from-some-displays/
Maybe. But of course the censorship or self censorship regime is also explicitly political, with implied support for genocide, so there are capitalist risks there too. Ultimately all that media/capitalist money power depends on the dogs being willing to eat the dog food. When the global public finally tires of comic book movies where to turn?
Here’s suggesting that the movie industry has always been a chameleon that reflects the zeitgeist of its era while politicians and public opinion are really in the driver’s seat. When America was far more racist so was Hollywood. It has always been a world of illusion and escapism but there are limits.
absolutely
Out Of Control Aurelien. Today’s must read.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A great essay!
I’m not sure why i’m attracted to collapsing empires and such, but its fascinating to look back to see what made them tick, until that series of events put paid to their existence.
Read Collapse of Complex Societies, by Joseph Tainter, again a few months back, and we are so many layers of complexity into our saga, compared to any other era.
In a war sense, it’d be tantamount to comparing Civil War to WW2 in armaments and capacity, the level of complexity in our everyday world, compared to past epochs in sudden death over time.
Add in a bubble-based economy where values are highly askew (a $16.5 million Pokeman card, really?) and not warranted. Why is a 3 bedroom 2 bathroom house in LA that was worth $100k in 1980, now worth a million. It’s the same house, and pretty well worn out from all those years of living. Nobody wants a 1967 era car as their daily driver, but a 1967 home is the bees knees.
There is scant chance of my nieces and nephews ever buying a home, we’ve gleefully replaced their jobs, what are they going to do, resell Pokeman cards on eBay?
Everybody in the past lived off the land, but we live off of complexity, where truly nobody knows nothing.
You wouldn’t dare open your iPhone to fix it yourself if it stopped working, nor would you do any auto repairs,
When the machine stops and grinds to a halt, it’ll be interesting to say the least. None of what mattered so much to so many of us, will really matter anymore.
Requiem for a heavyweight of an empire, Western Civilization edition.
‘Why is a 3 bedroom 2 bathroom house in LA that was worth $100k in 1980, now worth a million.’
It was a different time back then-
https://xcancel.com/financedystop/status/1963935896622993862#m
Aurelien reminds me more and more of Mark Fisher.
I had to read Wikipedia on who Mark Fisher was and what he wrote, but, yes! Aurelien should aspire to such insights.
Neoliberalism prescribed NOT-understanding and therefore taking no responsibility for the system architecture. As Aurelien observes in passing, the excuse is the “emergent” nature of the self-organizing political economy. This odd choice creates an aesthetic problem. How to evaluate a creation with no auteur, no intention? How to oppose when there is “no alternative”?
It begins from the reality that nobody really understands the modern world, and especially the why of it. Amen. I reckon the extraordinary technological advances made over the last couple of decades were not matched with an equal amount of intellectual development.
I was pondering this very thought while sitting in a class learning how to solder. Why would anyone pay me for the job role I’m in now, which is just wrangling complexity, vs. the simple skill of putting together electronics? I’m sure most of the iPhones we use are soldered in a sweatshop in Vietnam, or something, and the workers get 2 cents an hour.
The industrial revolution was bad enough, but at least there was some tangible output.
One could ask whether the technological developments of the last few decades are actually advancements. There is no doubt that computers and the internet have provided some benefits, but I would argue that, as in William Gibson’s quote about the future, those have been unevenly distributed. Even within a single enterprise–so maybe we’ve saved enormous time and costs for the Accounting Department by having Excel, but made life more difficult and fraught with error in other areas by pushing computers and tablets onto every employee’s desk. Which is why the productivity boost that many expected these developments to bring is not showing up in the measurements being taken. Most of the gains have been for what Musa Al-Gharbi calls “symbolic capitalists”…but are they really contributing to society on the same level as people in manufacturing or farming or direct care professions? I think personal (including handheld) computers will turn our to be a net benefit, but not a very large one the way they are currently used, and the internet will turn out to be a horrible mistake, something whose negatives are so large that they threaten the survival of civilization.
Re advancements, we only move forward, beneficial to society or not. I personally wish the digital age never happened.
The internet was nice for a time.
Aurelien comments:
“One of the key observations in William Gibson’s groundbreaking 1984 science fiction novel Neuromancer was that “the street finds its own uses for things.”
JMG opines that the first use of any new technology is porn….
The street wants to know the truth and the first AI Tech WHOEVER to give it to them and UNITE them will win.
Speaking of COMPLEXITIES, PMCrs LOVE overcomplicating things.
AMERICANS DO NOT WANT TO KILL EACH OTHER OR SEND THEIR KIDS TO DIE AND WANT AN END TO THIS POLITICAL ECONOMIC NONSENSE WHEN THEY SEE THE RICH STEALING EVERYTHING ITS FUCKING EMBARRASSING.
Not very hard to see an American Revolution 2 coming from where I sit over the Epstein Files.
GO OUTSIDE AND ORGANIZE YOUR NEIGHBORS AND START NEW LOCAL PARTIES OR STAY ONLINE AND EDUCATE THE MASSES ON CLASS CONSCIOUSNESS AND GET PEOPLE TO EXIT THE CAVE.
Jesus, always so many DOOMERS here, yall forgot what it takes to WIN.
AMERICA 🇺🇸 LOVES AN UNDERDOG
I have one to add to the litany of modern grievances from that piece. Several years ago after I got laid off, I experienced many delays when trying to deal with the unemployment office, including being told to call back another day on more than one occasion. Turns out they were extremely shorthanded at the unemployment office – who says irony is dead?
If I remember right, in the book wukchumni mentions at the top of this thread, the author determined that civilizations collapsed when they got too complex and nobody could perform the maintenance any longer. Speaking to that complexity, I’m sitting in a very “modern” office with lots of windows to look out out of, and I don’t have to trouble myself with fixing the lighting, because the shades are automatic and go up and down based on a rooftop sensor. They are also translucent and don’t block the full sun very well, and there is a delay between when the sun comes out and the shade goes down, so it quite often lowers right when the sun goes behind a cloud. We also have, instead of a coffee pot, one of those newer beverage machines where you can have everything from espresso to hot cocoa to hot water at the press of a button. That malfunctioned in the first week. When these modern ‘conveniences’ become intolerable, they won’t be fixed, they will be thrown out and replaced with some other ersatz doohickie.
It’s Juiceros everywhere you look these days.
I’d dare and have but without a doubt we are living in a mechanical age that can be uncomfortable for those who aren’t comfortable with machines.
Perhaps all those middle class schools need to bring back shop class. Just don’t cut your fingers off.
But computers too are merely machines without the finger risk which is part of their attraction. So in answer to Aurelian’s essay I’d say yes the upper middle class is at risk but there are other classes and other ways of life. In the simpler 19th century life expectancy was decades shorter and working hours days longer. We should count our blessings and hope the truly clueless politicians don’t blow up the world.
Most elementary and HS students these days don’t interact with computers. They use Chromebook, tablets, iPad, gated apps on select school devices that record what they’re doing. The number of 18 and 19 year olds who took STEM focused classes in HS and have never touched a real computer where they actually need to understand what a directory or a registry is boggles my mind.
re: RIP, Robert Duvall
Critic’s Appreciation: Few Actors Could Go as Terrifyingly Big, and as Hauntingly Small, as Robert Duvall
His range was like a swinging pendulum of human temperament, allowing him to be bellowing and destructive or discreet and vulnerable — sometimes within a single film or even a single scene.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-reviews/robert-duvall-critic-appreciation-the-godfather-the-apostle-1236507841/
I grew up on Combat! reruns, where the squad is mired in France for 6 years of syndication, and many a German soldier conveniently stands up at the wrong time, mowed down by Sgt Saunders and the boys to get the squad out of a jam, to live on for at least another episode.
Robert Duvall is really good in this goose stepping guest star role from 1965 (47 minutes) RIP
COMBAT! s.3 ep.16: “The Enemy” (1965)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szx-Fj9MQfs
Thanks!
Will watch!
“It’s quiet.”
“Yeah, too quiet!”
Combat! reruns??? Reruns?
Combat! the original – never saw it in syndication! And let us not forget Rat Patrol, while we’re at it!
Tomorrow, 1972. Based on a Faulkner story. This is the first Duvall movie I saw.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0069393/
My favorite is Tender Mercies, 1983.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0086423/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0_tt_5_nm_3_in_0_q_Tender%20Mercies
The Great Santini – the soup incident
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5betKv46GB4
The Great Santini was based on a book by the late Pat Conroy, a prolific fiction writer popular with Hollywood. Here are some of his books made into movies:
1) The Water is Wide, about Conroy’s teaching gig on a Gullah island in South Carolina, became Conrack starring Jon Voight playing a nice guy;
2) The Lords of Discipline, about Conroy’s college experience at the Citadel in South Carolina, made into a movie of the same name starring David Keith;
3) The Prince of Tides, about Conroy’s suicidal sister, her analyst and his relationship with the analyst, made into a movie of the same name, starring and directed by Streisand with Nolte playing Conroy.
Conroy had a connection to the little college where I was chaplain, and I once “hosted” a luncheon where he was given an award and did a reading. He was a fine luncheon partner.
A Family Thing is one of his lesser known ones, James Earl Jones is the co-star, and I remember it being very good.
If it premiered today, it would probably be up for an Oscar based on the subject matter.
Bullitt. Duvall’s tiny but memorable role playing an unnamed cabbie driving Detective Bullit (Steve McQueen), retracing a murdered man’s taxi stops. Signature line, a response to Bullitt’s question re calls from a phone booth,
Duvall: “Two. He made two calls, second one was long distance.”
McQueen: “How do you know it was long distance?”
Duvall: “He put it in a lotta change!”
I saw “Bullitt” when it came out, and remembered the taxi scene, but didn’t know who Duvall was until I saw it again after seeing “The Godfather”. I realized later that I had seen him before, in (of all things) the TV series “Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea” where he played an alien with no ears. Well, actors have to start somewhere…
Really loved him in Network. Character’s name was Hackett, appropriately sounds like “hatchet.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0XHAYUFVH6Q&t=2s
His performance in Network tends to get lost amidst those of Finch, Holden, Dunaway, Beatty, Straight and Warfield, but he was great too.
Very great. His character’s name was Hackett, appropriately sounds like “hatchet.”
‘The outfit’ is pretty gritty and the rest of the cast (Baker,black,Ryan) do sterling work,
Gus, in Lonesome Dove. A great part in a great story
…and his he is one of the few actors who could overcome bandy legs.
The only one I remember it being obvious was a j caan film about astronauts.
William peterson’s bandy legs undermined ‘to live and die in LA’, but to be honest, just about everyone involved did as well.
🪦 👑 🎥
DAYS OF THUNDER!
THE NATURAL!
PHENOMENAL ACTOR!
He’ll always be Boo Radley to me.
And though I am serious as it has always been what I think of when he is mentioned, I do have to say that I don’t think he is given enough credit for his contribution to The Godfather. He grounds that film. All the operatic performances wouldn’t work without the steadying presence of Duvall’s Tom Hagen.
Trump must be under tremendous stress, trying to maintain cognitive dissonance in the face of reality takes a lot of effort even in the bubble of delusion and dishonesty that characterizes his administration.
Unfortunately many people will go to any length to maintain the illusion of control, as anyone who has dealt with alcoholics knows to their regret.
There may be no limit to what Trump will do in order to “Prove” that he is a winner instead of the pathetic excuse for a human that he is.
‘Megatron
@Megatron_ron
2hBREAKING:
🇮🇳🇷🇺 India’s heroic heart could not stand it. After US threats, India gave up Russian oil
Map showing the movement of Russian crude tankers.’
Modi may imagine that cutting Russian oil deliveries – which will throw a spanner into the Indian economy – will have the US back off with their threats. Not so as this is kinda like Danegeld. Now that Modi has done this, the US will increase pressure in other areas and issue new demands with more threats of tariffs. He has proved that he will buckle under pressure so expect to see India come under yet more pressure.
I’m not sure we should be so quick to accept such claims as Megatron (former GA Tech/Detroit Lions NFL WR?) makes. Visual evidence is always convincing, but at a “feelz” level. Where is the data?
I can envision a lot of tankers with transponders turned off that don’t show up on that map he presents. Isn’t that the whole “war on dark fleet” problem? Modi isn’t stupid. He knows that all Trump wants is the appearance of fealty. Reality may be quite different.
“The mysterious symptom popping up in some GLP-1 users Vox”
Since my daughter started taking a GLP-1 drug I started some armchair investigations into what GLP-1 is and found some interesting facts. We make GLP-1 in our bodies. It is called “Pro-glucagon” or GCG. Well, GCG is really truing into GLP-1, as well as GLP-2 and Oxyntomodulin. Oxyntomodulin is the thing that suppresses appetite the most apparently. But GLP-1 and GLP-2 stimulate insulin release. It is also a precursor of glucagon:
I could see this is where much of the weight loss comes from as well sicne it will trigger stored fat to be used as energy.
But to the point of the article, why are these people missing that “spark”? They bring up dopamine, so I do not know why it is such a mystery since insulin lowers dopamine in the brain which was revealed to me after a simple search:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/11/211118203800.htm
To me, this is concerning.
And a question about these drugs that come up in my mind; are the drugs artificially increasing insulin and could this lead to insulin resistance?
I have no idea, just a old dude from Kansas trying to protect my daughter…
Nick Norwitz on YT has a ton of stuff on metabolism, including GLP-1s. You should check him out.
This may be of interest to a few people here. Clara Mattei spoke the other day on Channel 4 about her new book, Escape From Capitalism:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9M_dq_0ljsc
Thanks for this, it gives me hope for the future.
Despite Trump’s attempts to bestride the World like the Pillsbury Dough Boy he is just a tool and one that may have passed its “Sell By” date if the recent Epstein revelations are an indication.
It’s an overly dynamic situation, how it plays out may be as much a matter of luck as it is of planning by the various factions.
Utah governor blasts Trump regulator for blessing prediction markets The Hill. Headline in e-mail alert: “GOP war over prediction markets”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Drove to Salt Lake City on a ski mission last month, and I enjoy driving on the Beehive State’s interstates, as there are no gambling billboards going north and an 80 mph speed limit, heck-even the few lawyer billboards you see are Mormon-nice ‘Hurt in an accident? Jim can help!’.
How would a Prediction Markets Anonymous meeting go?
‘I’m Jamie and I have no power over my addiction to betting on everything and then calling it good, by labeling it something else.’
Re Epstein and Mandelson, not specifically about a Link today but a recap of some recent media on the topic.
I ended up watching or listening to 5 different conversations about it in the last week.
1) A HIGNFY supercut on YT compiling decades of segments about Mandy’s extravagant and blatant corruption,
2) TrueAnon with guest Marcus Barnett recapping Mandy’s role in the party’s hard turn to the right and the greatest hits of his career of extravagant and blatant corruption,
3) Private Eye podcast had a summary of Mandy’s Lifeboats including quotes from mainstream newspapers about his extravagant and blatant corruption and who gave him which lifeboat,
4) PoliticsJoe interviewed Jeremy Corbyn,
and finally 5) LRB podcast in which James Butler, Peter Geoghegan and Ethan Shone dissembled about their role in journalism or perhaps they are really that confused and naive.
1 thru 4 were pretty consistent all dealing with how the extravagant and blatant corruption is Mandy’s best known feature, how the Labour Party always forgave him, how starting witch Kinnock he was the driving force converting the party to Thatcherism, his role in defeating Corbynism and Labour’s adoption of zionism and its money, his relationship with Epstein is old news, and there’s nothing much new in the recent US DoJ except we get to see the private conversations and how icky they are.
So far so much good detail and quotes and nothing really surprising.
Then the LRB Podcast. Oh my.
James straight up asks, doesn’t the Epstein story seem uncomfortably like a QAnon conspiracy theory? At which point I shout at the car radio: YES! Yes it does. Rich people taking care of business in private, much of it unethical, illegal, some if it truly horrific. What’s surprising about that?
They spend a lot of time defending access journalism and complaining about the extraordinary power of certain London libel law firms. They seemed to be fighting the cognitive dissonance of belief in the public virtue of the journalism they do conflicting with knowledge of their being tools of the ruling elite. At the system level I see the problem with access journalism but at the personal, no. Don’t come to me with your self pity. You know the rules of the game and there’s other work you could seek.
I would add the Scroungers podcast crew who did a deep dive into Mandy back in April 2025: Scroungers Three lads from Yorkshire who dove deeply enough into the dark side of English life to be subjected to the police breaking in and beating the podcast host.
Thanks for the podcast tip.
Your comment reinforces the weirdness of the LRB. There was never any confusion about what kind of person Mandy is and what he wants for himself and the party. Also no confusion that the party loves him to bits, protects him, rewards and empowers him. So all that hand-wringing on the LRB Podcast apart from being annoying is baffling. What exactly are they trying to say and to whom? They were as ignorant as Starmer claims to be? Nobody believes that. Or was it that they had no alternative because access journalism and English libel law? This basically saying “What were my options? If its not me not telling the truth then you’ll just have someone else not telling the truth.”
I think that there is a major part missing from the Epstein story and that was the question of his staff. Sure, there was Maxwell but she was acting more like a pimp that anything else. From recent revelations he was the conduit for major business deals, money laundering, diplomatic relations with other countries and a host of other activities. For all that you need a team of professionals to get all that done but we never hear of them. I did read the other day of one woman that was part of his staff for years but was given immunity. You would think that their testimony would be vital to sort out all that was going on so maybe that is why we do not hear of them.
I’m inclined to believe that Maxwell was more than that. She was the connection to spy world, presumably UK and Israel. Despite trying to be his girlfriend, she was not and it was clear early on that she wasn’t going to be. So it’s been an open question for years why she stuck by him.
Epstein was, as you say, principally a fixer for dirty business, money and influence deals. That and the criminal sex abuse made him a rich source of kompromat and I suspect Maxwell’s job was to organize and route that information.
To your question about who was doing the administrative work on the dirty business, does he need them to be on his own staff or could he have mostly used the professional services (bankers, accountants and lawyers) that usually handle tax evasion, money laundering etc.
His PA got a get out of free jail card in his Palm Beach agreement.
“Yes, the 2008 non-prosecution agreement (NPA) negotiated by former U.S. Attorney Alexander Acosta in Florida specifically included immunity for Jeffrey Epstein’s co-conspirators
.
Key Details Regarding the Plea Deal Inclusion:
Broad Immunity: The deal shielded Epstein’s employees and co-conspirators from federal prosecution, in addition to protecting Epstein himself from federal charges related to sex trafficking.”
Yes, absolutely. That immunity deal is unique and astonishingly broad, including unnamed possible co-conspirators and prospective as well as retroactive. Iirc.
https://x.com/mtracey/status/2023570167653925228
Don’t worry, the good Mr. Tracey has it on good authority that nothing happened and there was no evidence of any wrongdoing
Good Lord, the absolute state of journalism
Re: GLP-1’s, from the New Yorker and dated Feb 9, but I haven’t seen it linked before:
https://archive.ph/RqwyB
Thanks. Way too much news flow. Readers sent far more links than I could post.
Quite something the array of wind swept fires in the middle of the country…
Prairie Fire, by Marty Robbins
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2theVkJGHp0&list=RD2theVkJGHp0
“The New York Times performs loyal stenography — masquerading as journalism — to protect AOC”
She’s come a long way, baby. I heard that at the Munich Conference that she was complaining that only Maduro was kidnapped at that they should have gone after the entire political leadership in Venezuela. So to my mind, that puts her to the right of Lindsay Graham. If she ever became President, I would expect that she would continue most of Trump’s policies of AmericaUberAlles.
– ‘Peeling Back the US Information Operation in Iran’ – Larry Johnson
More on the intensified propaganda operation: MofA has a relevant discussion about the “duplicate propaganda” pieces in the Times and the Post pushing the “humanitarian” argument for war:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/02/duplicate-propaganda-for-war-on-iran.html
Combined with the intensified military build-up discussed in today’s Links, this information offensive is really worrisome. Unlike the manufacturing of consent for Iraq, I think there are a lot of people who see through this bulls**t today. But more worrisome, I don’t think this matters at all anymore. Officials say what they want no matter how ridiculous to legitimate their plans. It’s like a ritual bow to the past; it doesn’t matter if people believe it or not.
at Davos it was loudly announced to great fanfare that we are now in a post-pretense world. Power will now act unrestrained, how it wants. And this will include the use of nuclear weapons. Israel already broke all previous taboos in their savagery in Palestine. In the new world order, you act and don’t let your opponents react.
Maybe. But of course the censorship or self censorship regime is also explicitly political, with implied support for genocide, so there are capitalist risks there too. Ultimately all that media/capitalist money power depends on the dogs being willing to eat the dog food. When the global public finally tires of comic book movies where to turn?
Here’s suggesting that the movie industry has always been a chameleon that reflects the zeitgeist of its era while politicians and public opinion are really in the driver’s seat. When America was far more racist so was Hollywood. It has always been a world of illusion and escapism but there are limits.
Just got back from seeing GOOD LUCK, HAVE FUN, DONT DIE, and WOW what a funny movie that brilliantly points fun at our modern world of smart phones/tech and bland culture.
Sam Rockwell rules as does the supporting cast.
THE END IS A DONT MISS
Cheers 🍻
Re GLP1s – from personal experience this is a real thing. In my case, it’s manifested in a total lack of interest in playing video games, which for most of my mid-50 year life have been my primary form of recreation and stress relief. My feeling when I look at my PlayStation now is similar to how you feel when you look at food but are already full.
Other things I enjoy haven’t been affected at all. Very strange! But real.
Out Of Control Aurelien. Today’s must read.
—————
I´m portuguese.
Exactly the same thing described in the essay happens here, and happened here.
After a pseudo revolution in 1974, despite all, we had the chance of creating something worthwhle,and instead decided to – gloriously – clone what´s being done in england around the 80´s.(and the others)
The result is a pathetic failure as a society, with much of the aspects that the essay (almost all) shows,but with a flavour of our own idiossicncracies,which makes all even more ridicule.
Recently ( in the last 20 days) we had an array of storms,and the State and private companies response to the problems was appaling.
It´s like having a group of anarchists who got out of a mental asylum running things aided by drunken chimps. And Chatbots,too…
19 people died from this, several hundred thousand are still without electric power, small to medium companies unable to resume production, lot´s of damages to roof´s and machinery; but we can take confort that some chatbot somewhere (will not) come to the rescue.
The amount of effort put into framing Trump’s new Voter ID threat as simply a requirement to have an ID when you vote, and the sloppiness of reporting on the SAVE act is exhausting.
The bill is not particularly long or difficult to read. It’s not about having an ID or proving citizenship, it’s about allowing SAVE election officials and DHS to cross reference documents from any and all Federal agencies and departments at will, and purge anyone they like after finding any little oddity, like an address for 1313 Mockingbird Lane that doesn’t match the address for 1313 Mockingbird Ln. Presumably, the voters selected for review would be based on address and anyone in a safely red jurisdiction with expensive homes has nothing to fear.
These election officials-a class that doesn’t currently exist and for whom there is no mention of training or budget. Just a mandate to set up a state program in 30 days… or what?
The Save Act is breathtaking – utterly lawless and ridiculously sloppy.
A little of both, maybe? Long before Trump I had conservative friends who believed that huge numbers of non-citizens were voting in U.S. elections (for Democrats, natch). So Trump is in part playing to that, and of course at the same time furthering whatever agenda he has.
FWIW several years ago I volunteered at polling places, and never encountered a voter who didn’t have ID. The most common situation was someone who’d moved to a different district after the ID was issued, so it would take a few minutes to find the right polling place for them. The only guy I was ever really suspicious of had three IDs with different addresses, none of which he lived at.
I’m of the opinion Aurelien doesn’t know what he writes about when it is about Melenchon.
He regularily takes digs at him in one or two short sentences and stops short of explaining anything about why his program is not a viable answer to the current polycrisis, at least at the political level.
Potomac sewage flow finally brings phenomenological transparency to DC.
Whitney Webb on the Epstein Files. utube, ~9+ minutes.
“The Truth Is Way Worse Than I Thought” | Whitney Webb’s Terrifying Discovery
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8ecet1HTyk
Listen to a link from the 14 Feb links:
Play-By-Play Of Jeffrey Epstein’s Staggering Financial Illiteracy
https://www.racket.news/p/a-play-by-play-of-jeffrey-epsteins
This is a mix of an Epstein interview with Steve Bannon and commentary about the interview. Epstein does not come off as someone who understands finance. Unless Epstein was putting on an act in this interview I am skeptical of Whitney Webb’s assessment of Epstein. Epstein and Maxwell seem like the merest tip of the iceberg. I think the Rev Kev is right:”I think that there is a major part missing from the Epstein story and that was the question of his staff.” February 18, 2026 at 9:51 am
The idea that Epstein was some sort of financial genius seems to be part of his cover story. I think many knowledgeable Wall Street insiders have questioned this story for a long time. I’ve only seen parts of this, but from the clips I’ve seen Epstein certainly comes off as a lightweight.
I’m not sure this undermines Webb’s assessment of Epstein though. The connections he had, and used, with some of the richest individuals and largest financial institutions in the world, are well documented. His role seemed to be one of a facilitator, a central connecting node or middle-man in a number of political, financial and intelligence networks. The ‘Escapekey’ substack has done a lot of useful work in documenting these connections. This one has the informative title of ‘Epstein: the switchboard operator’:
https://escapekey.substack.com/p/epstein
The substack as a whole has a lot of interesting material on these elements of the Epstein story:
https://escapekey.substack.com/
Much of it is on the non-sexual stuff. And it pretty much backs up what Webb has been saying for years. I think Epstein was a front man who had benefactors and sponsors at each stage of his “career.” I also think he had certain skills that he used for social networking, and crucial connections in the political, intelligence, and financial worlds that served him well for quite a while. But I think the “genius” story was just part of the myth. I’ve heard that in reference to his supposed “mastery” of issues in science as well.
A question, since I have only seen parts of this. Given it is Racket News, were they using this performance to partially “debunk” the whole Epstein “hysteria” by any chance?
Webb has posted about the rampant AI fraudulent use of her image on Youtube, are you sure this is real? Nothing like it at Unlimited Hangout
Is Unlimited Hangout her own official website/channel? The youtube algo has been shoving Webb videos at me recently and although I do like her, I haven’t been able to determine if the suggestions I’m given are her or the AI version of her.
And in case the algo is currently tracking me, I will just mention that it could stop trying to force feed me Heather Cox Richardson any time now.
I believe yes, Unlimited Hangout is where she has posted the published articles she’s written independently of Mint Press or Intercept etc.
I say I believe, because, generally I don’t know what to believe online (off NC) anymore!
I’ve seen a number of Webb interviews. I’m not sure if this one is AI or not. But there are also sites that have been taking older interviews from other sources, editing them, and then posting them as if they were recent. The ones I’ve seen are mostly consistent with Webb’s own work, I think, including the one posted by flora here. But to me they are somewhat dishonest in their presentation – and any AI reproduction is always reprehensible. Webb herself has not been writing or appearing in interviews since the big Epstein file drops, but I think she has indicated that she will be soon.
Webb is the best. I hate this style of video production but the main points she makes and the questions asked are super important. The big recent DoJ dump is, as I wrote here before, both a zone flood and a limited hangout. She’s right. Understanding him as the nexus and fixer for all sorts of financial crimes involving lots of other people and firms is critical and we should be pulling those threads.
Flora,
This is the same channel you posted here before that rips off WW’s interviews and repackages them with added AI snazziness. I said exactly this last time.
Not watched all of it but I think it’s her real words, not AI generated (as some are). It’s hard to tell and maybe mostly real with some fakery. Even if her real words, editing can change context and meaning. It’s an info hazard, and personally I would only watch the original source interviews.
The interview it was stolen from is here:
Whitney Webb & Mark Goodwin on How Intelligence Agencies Capture Everything (Pete McCormack Show, YT)
https://youtu.be/zcg7MiHpKgo
In general if it’s a less than 20 minute video OR features snazzy AI production it’s a rip-off or fake WW interview.
All her real interviews are longer form, without snazzy visuals.
FYI, there’s a more recent interview of WW on Pete’s channel with lots more Epstein detail
https://youtu.be/EwejUh3m9Fg
To other commenters, yes unlimitedhangout is her website. In the members area all her interviews are posted. UH publishes stuff itself, but rarely.
And please consider joining/donating to Unlimited Hangout if you have the means. They are one of few places that still does long form detailed work and they stay afloat through donations.
I don’t know of anyone else that has done such detailed work on either Epstein or the rise of the Thielverse/surveillance state.
– ‘Goodbye and Good luck, David Brooks’ – Robert Reich
A relevant critique of someone who definitely deserves criticism for all of his conservative pundit obscurantism.
But while we are on that subject, some of my fondest memories of Reich are of his “liberal” voice going around the country as Clinton’s Secretary of Labor and explaining to those of us too dense to understand the new global economy how NAFTA will be good for all of us – including workers. I’ll also cherish his eloquent argument for Liz Cheney as President (and he assured us he was being serious). And so on.
Four decades (or more) of big money and right-wing hacks, given cover by “conservative” pundits like David Brooks, to be sure. And “liberal” pundits like Reich providing Blue Team talking points during those decades as our bipartisan train to policy oblivion (and Trump) accelerated unhindered.
I can’t take Reich seriously any more than Stephen Colbert, no matter how serious their targets might be.
In an article in autumn 2022 or 2023—I forget which—Brooks announced the milestone that excess mortality in the US had returned to baseline “post pandemic,” not mentioning that the baseline calculation had been changed to incorporate some or all of the increased mortality. Nothing more need be said of his good faith.
Brooks has always been an odious apologist for an elite whose damage to the socioeconomic circumstances of the citizenry has been incalculable.
Good riddance.
Oil jumps 3% after Vance says Iran ignored key U.S. demand, military strikes on the table (CNBC)
And we’re all wondering: Is Trump really stupid enough to engage in another attack on Iran?
I guess we’re gonna find out soonish.
Ritter on Nima posits (paraphrasing) the plan is a massive decapitation strike counting on iranian restraint/indecisiveness leading to a cycle of hesitancy suppressing capacity to react in time.
Didn’t work out very well last time. They killed a significant amount of important officials and the state was out of commission for less than 24 hours. Also, have people forgotten the Shia’s notorious penchant for martyrdom? I recall pretty well that after the attacks last year you had hitherto liberals on the streets of Tehran calling for nukes to be developed and deployed. They overcame probably the most difficult war of the late 20th century against impossible odds in a much worse situation. I wouldn’t bet on them folding.
The Ritter interview w/Nima from yesterday that tegnost mentions:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCDuxei5dj8
I found it interesting as it gives a different description of what’s coming than Johnson/Crooke/Wilkerson. Much more depressing really.
Ritter talks a fair bit about what he expects for in-country disruption (various outside funded anti-regime groups). Interesting (if true) that Iran only found 20% of the Starlinks terminals and that the rest may have been upgraded to be unblockable.
Fits with my (almost totally ignorant) suspicions that Iran may not be able to retaliate as powerfully and fully as some expect. But also that the US will fail, at the cost of many many lives.
Sad and scary times.
Twitter chattering should always be taken with a grain of salt, but from what I see the amount of materiel in West Asia far outweighs what would be necessary for typical saber-rattling. I think we’re in for a hell of a 2026.
They are talking up this weekend and hinting about using UK bases, we will see if the extra 19 air tankers that left the US today stay in the UK or go further.
Diego Garcia was also mentioned so they may think Cyprus will be too hot as well. Obviously they are trying to not get the big Middle East refineries hit. For us here in Australia if the Straight is closed for some time liquid fuel rationing will be needed, we have abysmal levels of storage and no navy in the world is configured for convoying the essential supplies that are imported now days. No ocean going ASW corvettes, escort carriers and fast oilers anymore.
Anyone…did I see an outrageous tweet about Iran from Bill Kristol up here this morning that has since disappeared? Or am I hallucinating?
It’s a race against time and severe winter conditions, as dozens of first responders work to reach nine skiers missing after an avalanche near Lake Tahoe in California’s Sierra Nevada mountains.
It took teams several hours to safely reach six other backcountry skiers caught in the slide in the Castle Peak area of Truckee around 11:30 a.m. Tuesday.
The group of skiers and guides were returning to the trailhead from a three-day trip when the avalanche happened, according to a statement from Blackbird Mountain Guides. The company said it was responding to the incident and working to support the rescue operation.
https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2026-02-18-skiers-missing-in-storm-after-sierra-nevada-avalanche
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Sierra Nevada is a really gentle mountain range usually, but has its moments, and this storm was forecast a week out to be a biggie and not to be trifled with, but this outfitter was getting $1700 per person for the trip, and the next group were coming in.
9 are missing~
I took a hard fall skiing out in Colorado last week, resulting in a trip to the ER. First ambulance ride of my life, cross that one off my bucket list.
It all ended OK, but a reminder that this is a risky sport, not for the faint of heart. I always feel death is a real possibility whenever I hit the blacks.
We in the Dartful Codgers are mostly blues cruisers on skid row, although we occasionally get brave and do a few blacks or ski through the trees if there is boucoup powder.
the oldest of us just turned 73 and he sustained a concussion getting onto chair 14 at Mammoth when a glove fell off as he was getting on and bent over to get it and tumbled onto his head.
At the top of 14 after he got off, we started asking him questions, such as our names, and he was a little slow with the answers, and then somebody asked who the President was, and he didn’t know-which evoked envy, lemme tell ya.
We skied him down to the main lodge in somewhat of a pod, and he had no memory of doing it, later. Muscle memory must’ve kicked in.
He was finished skiing for the week, but will be ok.
That reminds me of Scott Fischer on Everest. A friend of mine had been invited to join him, but thankfully had prior commitments. He’s now a RETIRED mountaineer.
Back in ’80 (?) a friend and I skied x-country over the western ridge of Castle Peak, to the Peter Grubb Hut. It started to snow as we climbed the ridge, and by the time we got to the top of the pass it was near white-out.
The trail blazes (deep snowfall meant that high in the trees was now almost face level) had petered out as we emerged from the trees, and we had no visual clues to our route.
But just then, as we began our descent, the snow slowed for a moment, and I caught sight of the hut in the distance, a black speck amongst the white. I sat down and took off my skis, afraid I’d loose orientation if I fell. We slowly slogged our way through the blizzard, finally reaching the hut, and shelter.
The next day was gloriously sunny, and allowed us to reflect on the wisdom we displayed in continuing on in the storm. No one knew we were there, or where we were going. The folly of youth.
In truth, turning back might have been just as perilous, except we would’ve eventually reached I-80. Which was closed, and thus empty of helpful traffic.
Sadly, 8 of the backcountry skiers died~
Around the turn of the century, 4 friends and I skied/snowshoed out to Pear Lake in Sequoia NP, and had 4-5 feet of snow fall on us after we arrived and were ensconced in Megamid tents. A friend had a radio and we could get religious and/or Hispanic on it, but little else.
I remember a friend looking at us and saying ‘we are so very family-blogged’
When we finally got a weather forecast, it was more of the same, and instead of staying put and waiting for the storm to pass, we soldiered on and it was a quite long 9 miles back to the cars. We had to break trail the whole way.
A friend had boiled water in a thermos and placed mint tea bags in it, and when we got to the top of the Hump 4 or 5 miles from our cars, he brought it out and shared it with all of us. To this day I always associate mint tea with that trip~
Absolutely not an excuse. The most important (and sometimes most difficult) part of a guide’s job is to make the call to cancel or turn back. This can sometimes happen even when the weather looks fine, due to a change in the forecast or the guide’s read of local conditions, or when reaching the destination is still achievable (it’s only the halfway mark, and you still have to get back). Particularly in places like Everest, it also often involves wealthy and powerful clients who are not used to being told ‘no’ by anybody.
They do it anyway, because their number one job is to bring the client (and themselves) back alive. I know guides who have been ‘sacked’ by their clients after making an unpopular call and insisting on it. Very often they repent days or weeks later, as emotions fade and they realise that the guide was doing the job they hired them to do.
That said, some risks can’t be entirely eliminated (called ‘objective hazard’ in the trade). Like all such instances, this one will be analysed to the smallest detail, with others asking whether the decisions were the right ones, and whether they would have done anything differently. The cases where the answers to those questions are ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ respectively are psychologically the most difficult ones for the community.
They were leaving the backcountry huts and coming back to the trailhead when tragedy struck, and obviously they should have sheltered in place at the huts, even if it was on the uncomfortable side with it being double booked.
Going out into a well advertised storm takes a certain kind of madness, and how could the outfitter not know what was coming in this day and age of instant information?
Re: Out Of Control
I don’t know if this is the case in Europe, but, in the United States, the social stratum in question identifies entirely with the elite, because of fear, and will therefore never meaningfully protest. They will eagerly accept anything that lets them avoid falling into the undifferentiated mass of what they regard as sub-humanity below them. And the less likely they are to escape such a fate, the more they will cling to the hope that they can, and the more they will try to show that they are *worthy*. (This last part explains, among other things, the really grotesque exaggeration of PMC manners in recent years.)
I also don’t think that the PMC have the potential to be the avant-garde of the revolution, but it’s an interesting theory and a sort of elegant conclusion to his work.
>US College Underemployment Hits 42.5% as first-job prospects weaken
Trump values people with criminal records more than those with degrees in criminal justice.
NYTimes op-ed from Thomas Friedman. Here’s a title I never expected to read from him.
Netanyahu Plays Trump and American Jews for Fools — Again
Feb. 17, 2026
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/17/opinion/israel-iran-netanyahu.html
Friedman says basically the greatest danger to Isr and to America and to all jews around the world is Netanyahu and his gang of zealous zionist extremists in government.
The fact this op-ed by Friedman appears now in the NYTimes makes me wonder if some cooler heads are starting to prevail in NY and D.C. Friedman writes to a particular audience. (The phrase ‘ Pyyrhic victory’ come to mind.)
I just came across this (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QryFk4RYaM) under 10 minute video discussing a recent ad and article put out by Anthropic, where they claim that their LLM created a full C compiler from scratch.
He goes through how the LLM would have access to a gold-standard open-source compiler, GCC, as well as using GCC’s test suite, and looking at it online when there are problems. Among a number of other issues which leads him to calling the whole thing highly deceptive.
I’m not really familiar with this channel, “The PrimeTime”, but they seem to be of pretty good from watching a couple of videos.
The final 2 paras from Thomas Friedmans’ NYT op-ed.
” Iran is not the greatest threat to Israel as a democracy governed by the rule of law. It is not the greatest threat to U.S.-Israeli relations. It is not the greatest threat to the unity and security of Jews around the world. It is not the reason so many talented Israeli technologists, engineers and doctors are moving away. And it is not the biggest reason Israel is becoming an apartheid state by not only refusing to try anymore to create a separate Palestinian state but by working instead to make that impossible.
” That title goes to the government of messianic zealots, Arab-hating nationalists and anti-modern ultra-Orthodox Israelis put together by Benjamin Netanyahu to keep himself in power.”
damn, the Moustache of Understanding is going to lose his Tel Aviv privileges talking like that
Yesterday, from PBS:
Iran says it closed Strait of Hormuz for live fire drills as it held nuclear talks with U.S.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran-temporarily-closing-strait-of-hormuz-for-live-fire-drills-as-nuclear-talks-with-u-s-begin
yes, I posted some links right before yesterday’s links went up in the day before. see the Wana link. I would guess they think US/Israel seizure of the strait is a possibility
re: Iran
Moon of Alabama
Duplicate Propaganda For War On Iran
Propaganda usually works in a drip-drip-drip fashion. Small stories are launched each other day spreading the similar talking points over and over again
But today, due to some mix up, two of the major propaganda outlets, the New York Times and the Washington Post, launched very similar propaganda stories on the very same day.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/02/duplicate-propaganda-for-war-on-iran.html
File under A.I. From Bad Catittude substack, no paywall.
the informational abyss gazes also
and the hunter becomes the hunted
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/the-informational-abyss-gazes-also
Re: Lucy Komisar’s “”Board of Peace” Has a Corruption Problem”
Certainly agree with expose of Apollo/Athene’s Marc Rowan. And Leon Black should be included. I disagree that the discussion calls the failure of junk bonds in the Executive Life/ELIC as the reason for failure of ELIC. However, claiming that by Apollo allowed Rep. John Garamendi (then Insurance Commissioner) to seize the company. All of their lies and actions caused a $7B loss to policyholders.
I believe that Trump has gone far enough off the rails that we will see the President from Palantir some time this year.
The regulatory agencies have been gutted and the President now has an army of thugs answerable only to the executive, corporations can loot to their hearts content.
Trump has done his job and it seems time for someone more pliable and predictable to take over.
This will have the libertarian tech bro’s dancing in glee for a year or two until the new President is firmly in control.
At which point they will learn who has the troops, and it ain’t them.
There are a few things that might complicate matters like climate change and its consequences including widespread disease outbreaks.
Measles is fully on the loose and that’s just the beginning.
On a more positive note it’s rainbow weather here.
This will have the libertarian tech bro’s dancing in glee for a year or two until the new President is firmly in control.
At which point they will learn who has the troops, and it ain’t them
I think this is an open question. Palantir isn’t your normal techbro company. It’s a CIA outsourced project that has spent two decades cultivating people inside the military. My belief is that we are in the middle of a deep-state schism and that the Palantir/War-On-Terror alumni group has a fair amount of support. Maybe not enough, but definitely not nothing.
Not this year: next. The 22nd Amendment prohibits anyone replacing an elected president from being elected more than once. . Which would on its face prohibit Vance (or anyone else) from having two terms of his/her own as president, if s/he replaces Trump within two years of Trump’s inauguration.
That leaves almost another year yet to run.
In more complicated scenarios, of course, one can envision any number of ways a prospective successor, reluctant to accept such a limitation, might arrange to succeed (but not in a way that triggers the 22nd Amendment) so as to be able to argue that s/he is eligible to serve two full terms as President.
Either way, it’s simpler and more straightforward to wait another year to remove Trump. The question then becomes whether he becomes too unmanageable to wait that long.
And it’s possible that Trump is aware of all this and restricting himself accordingly (while claiming he’s not subject to any restrictions).
Me, I have no idea.
Actually, JD Vance would be eligible to replace Trump and run for two full terms if he just waits until after January of 2027. The 22nd Amendment begins;
No person shall be elected to the office of President more than twice, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which someone else was elected President, shall be elected to the office of the President more than once. …
Oh, I just noticed you already said that. Sorry.
Thanks, I was unaware of this.
So, Vance becomes Pres before Jan ’27 and he’d be ineligible to run in ’32.
Vance becomes Pres after Jan ’27 and he could run in ’32.
All presupposing that any of this still applies in ’32. I’d assume a lot will happen between now and then.
From the Palantirite POV, if the downside/risk from Trump is great enough it would still make sense to remove him soon. Deal with 2032 when you get there or assume you can control events to make elections irrelevant by then.
Also, Vance is just the public face; having a different loyal pet instead would work just as well.
The important thing is to secure the Presidency, and use it to complete your takeover. Once you have enough control, you’re golden.
I think it depends on:
1. How much deep state support this faction has/can get.
2. Whether once the MAGA base has turned on them, will there be effective popular opposition.
3. How bad externalities (economy, climate, geopolitcs) get.
4. How complete is the surveillance state.
5. How much (if any) effective resistance from other factions in the elite.
6. Other stuff I haven’t thought of.
(Not saying this will work, just that it’s how I asses their thinking)
re From Waltz to Valdez: very interesting analysis. If one stopped at the second image level (the State) then the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, from the US neocon perspective, would be desirable, given that 80%+ of the LNG and crude exports flowing through it go to Asian buyers, notably including China, and that disruption could “raise costs for China, complicate industrial output, and inject uncertainty into supply chains.” The analysis does not mention an issue with supply in the US. So far so good tactically, from a US-centric point of view (as the article points out). But moving to the third image, the Systemic Level, the problem becomes global due to severe price contagion, which, of course, has serious negative consequences to the US economy. But (strictly as a thought experiment) could those negative consequences be effectively mitigated in the US by government imposed energy price controls? Not saying that has any realistic chance of happening under this (or any) administration.
While Trump has been actively the working “Board of Peace” to his benefit there is also the “Commission on Religious Freedom” that he has put together to apparently whitewash the Zionist genocide in Gaza. Here is an interesting interview of Carrie Prejean Bollar, who has been “fired” from the panel, by TYT folks.
https://youtu.be/8PSb32V3Zto
MAHAns and Franz hasn’t been discussed yet, and you just vunder how much more nutty RFK, Jr. can pump himself up, decked out in blue jeans while getting physical with Kid Rock, showing oh so little flab…
No girly men, please.
It’s go time
US military prepared to strike Iran as early as this weekend, but Trump has yet to make a final call, sources say
Yeah, keep the Iranian’s on high alert (they should be).
Stenographers unite, you have nothing to lose but your chains.
Oh oh black betty, Ramadan
State of the Union Tuesday
Ramadan
Cargo jets in the air
Ramadan
White Christian Nationalists
Ramadan
It’s Ash Wednesday
Ramadan
And the rockets red glare,
the bombs bursting in air
Lotta airplane tracker maps have a certain doom to them.
Shock Doctrine on Steroids. Blitzkrieg against the plebes, at home and abroad.
Curiosly a Russian corvette joined the Iranian navy today for the latest maritime exercise (actually blocking the strait of Hormuz this time).
While it’s just a single corvette, 20% of the size of a US destroyer, it packs 60% of the missile firepower and 220% of the close-in defense firepower of a US destroyer. Russians design their ships differently, I guess.
Anyway, what ever happens in the Gulf of Oman in the next few days, the Russian navy will be there.
Famed US tax expert Prof. David Cay Johnston joins The Trump Report with Maddie Hale to talk about many aspects of the Epstein files and T’s dropping poll numbers even within the GOP. utube, ~24+ minutes.
Trump’s Epstein ‘coverup’ is starting to unravel | David Cay Johnston
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFMqbhWdtIk
NYT just now
I gasp between every paragraph at the analysis that is being let out.
Read it with your own filters.
It is already obsolete except for its want of shame for its lack of humanity.
re: RIP Frederick Wiseman / film
Trying to find a decent text on Frederick Wiseman.
So far his work appears to overwhelm the current staffs´ competence, at least if I look at THR´s and VARIETY´s embarrassing pieces. One need to be aware that Wiseman, an American artist, is one of the giants of documentary film. Plain and simple.
For now three very short pieces by JONATHAN ROSENBAUM on Wiseman Classics:
Welfare
September 1, 1994 Chicago Reader
https://jonathanrosenbaum.net/2022/09/welfare/
“(…)One of Frederick Wiseman’s strongest documentaries, this nearly three-hour look at a New York welfare center (1975) (…) Wiseman’s customary refusal to add an offscreen commentary (…) Wiseman dares us to reach conclusions according to the evidence of our eyes and ears. It’s impossible to emerge from such an experience unscathed. (…)”
Public Housing
November 6, 1998 Chicago Reader
https://jonathanrosenbaum.net/2022/09/public-housing/
“(…)
Wiseman presents a wide array of materials, and because you have to reflect on the film to realize how the various pieces of its design hang together, you’re liable to be thinking about it for months afterward.
(…)”
High School II
https://jonathanrosenbaum.net/2007/03/high-school-ii/
re: RIP, Frederick Wiseman / film
Quickly, MUBI´s NOTEBOOK of course had items on Wiseman over the years:
https://mubi.com/de/notebook/search?q=frederick%20wiseman
Check out for instance the texts by Daniel Kasman.
One year ago there was a Paris retro and CAHIERS DU CINEMA had a short piece.
machine-translation
Wiseman, master of suspense
February 3, 2025 by Raphael Nieuwjaer
RETROSPECTIVE. Dispersed for its second part outside the Centre Pompidou (Paris), the complete retrospective dedicated to Frederick Wiseman by the Cinémathèque du documentaire will conclude on March 19. A look back at some of the conversations already held.
https://archive.is/7TDmH
re: IDF UK
DECLASSIFIED UK
Israel secretly sought legal advice about Britons serving in the IDF
Exclusive: Leaked documents expose concerns within the Israeli ministry of justice about dual nationals fighting for Israel
JOHN McEVOY
18 February 2026
https://www.declassifieduk.org/israel-secretly-sought-legal-advice-about-britons-serving-in-the-idf/
Presented without comment:
JPMorgan in talks to be banker for Trump’s Board of Peace (FT, not paywalled for me)
Relations between the Trump administration and JPMorgan, the largest US bank with more than $4tn in assets, are complicated by a lawsuit filed last month by the US president against the company and chief executive Jamie Dimon. Trump claims the lender closed his bank accounts for political reasons.
But Dimon has also pursued policies in line with Trump’s America First agenda, including a goal to facilitate and finance $1.5tn in industries deemed critical to US national security and infrastructure.
The UK press is saying very little about the imminent prospect of war with Iran. A few soft “Iran bad” articles earlier in the week then not much more beyond quoting official sources and other sites like Axios. This suggests to me they that the UK spooks are not happy about it, and very much don’t want to be blamed for it.
Alleged “deep dive” in the Times. I extracted two confident assertions which seem like they might not be true.
Will America go to war with Iran? (Times (of London) via archive.ph)
Given that Israel largely destroyed Iran’s air defences in 2024, there would be only limited risk to American pilots….
…Israeli air defences have been able to parry almost all the hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles launched by Iran during previous exchanges of fire.
—–
BP: I remember 2003 :)