[This Iran war post launched before complete because reasons. Please come back at 8:00 AM EDT or refresh your browser then for a final version]
The Trump Administration continues to lash out even as the global economy suffers more and more catastrophic damage. The continued effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is ever increasing damage to nations all over the globe due to deepening shortfalls of crude oil, LNG, and products that depend either on oil or LNG for production, like urea (meaning food), plastics, many pharmaceutical and helium, or need affordable energy/fuels to operate, like airlines and chemical plants.
Contradictory messaging from the Trump Team has hit the point of absurdity. Recall Trump’s April 6 deadline for Iran to capitulate or face devastation is still in play. Trump doubled down on that by threatening again to engage in war crimes:1
Presumably, those who have attention spans longer than those of goldfish recall that Trump made similar threats with his initial 48 hour, then 5 day, now April 6 deadlines. The manhood-preserving defense for these delays was the time it took to get forces to make a ground assault in theater.
Yet as those servicemembers are still either arriving or waiting, the Wall Street Journal published this story:
But it quickly becomes clear that Trump is simply trying to reshuffle the deck of his non-options. From the article:
President Trump told aides he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely
closed, administration officials said, likely extending Tehran’s firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date.
In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the chokepoint would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks. He decided that the U.S. should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran’s navy and its missile stocks and wind down current hostilities while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade. If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the strait, the officials said.
There are also military options the president could decide on, but they aren’t his immediate priority, they said.
The only possible logic here is that if the Administration can show more progress in degrading Iran, at the same time, real economy pressures on the UK, EU, Japan and South Korea will become so acute that they will be compelled by domestic pressure to participate in a US naval operation to force the Strait of Hormuz open. It is entirely conceivable that Trump believes that opening the Strait of Hormuz would be easy if enough warships participated.
Notice that this sunny scenario also ignores that even if Iran is by some measures degraded further, its comparative advantage compared to the US and Israel continues to increase as their kit of pricey, hard-to-replace weapons systems continues to fall to catastrophically low levels even as Iran looks to be firing at a rate that it can easily sustain into 2027, if not indefinitely.
In the meantime, the normally Trump-friendly Journal quickly clears its throat and points out the dire real-world consequences of the latest Trump gambit:
The longer the strait remains closed, the more it will roil the global economy and boost gas prices. Multiple countries, including U.S. allies, are reeling from the downturn in energy supply that once flowed freely through the chokepoint. Industries that rely on items such as fertilizer to grow food or helium to make computer chips are suffering from shortages.
Without a swift return to safe passages, Tehran will continue to threaten world trade until the U.S. and its partners either negotiate a deal or forcibly end the crisis, analysts say..
The U.S. and Israel started the war together and can’t walk away from the fallout, [Suzanne] Maloney [Iran expert at Brookings] said. “Energy markets are inherently global, and there is no possibility of insulating the U.S. from the economic damage that is already occurring and will become exponentially worse if the closure of the strait continues.”
Trump had a further hissy. From the BBC live blog page:
The source:
And shortly thereafter, another fit of pique:
A fresh sighting….and even if merely a function of bidding as Bloomberg suggests, could this also have the effect of increasing pressure on Europe? Readers with insight, please pipe up.
Tankers carrying diesel to Europe have changed course.
Several tankers carrying diesel from the US to Europe have changed course mid-Atlantic.
The Aliai, Minerva Vaso and Grand Ace6 all loaded in the US and were initially bound for Europe, with destinations including… pic.twitter.com/ZIb5PjAI3t
— Nick Delehanty 🇮🇪 (@Nick_Delehanty) March 31, 2026
But does the stable genius Trump recognize where this goes, particularly if a cover for an ungraceful exit?
If this ends with European and Asian and African countries paying Iran to get oil through the strait, that is actually a fairly stable arrangement because all parties will have an incentive to keep it stable (except of course Israel and the U.S., the real source of global… https://t.co/vVcUTtYNcF
— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) March 31, 2026
Patricia Marins has gotten early word of the Trump plan to change the goalposts to facilitate an exit and identified additional impediments:
This is a clear sign that they are thinking of exiting the conflict very soon and are already adjusting the list of objectives to claim victory. However, this will be more complicated than it seems.
1. The destruction of Iran’s Air Force⁰Of the modern combat aircraft, such as… https://t.co/GpglCJO4Z2
— Patricia Marins (@pati_marins64) March 30, 2026
And remember Israel has been doing and will continue to do everything it can to stymie a US abandonment.
The Journal also confirms that troop movements into theater are still in progress, with the USS Tripoli and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit having just arrived, elements of the 82nd Airborne assembling plus Trump having recently talked up bringing in 10,000 more in ground forces.
So what to make of this? Just before the Murdoch paper’s exclusive broke, Larry Johnson told Pascal Lottaz that he had heard from contacts in the military that there was no plan. 2
Bloomberg’s landing page did not give the Journal story leading play:
Mind you, it is in the summary in the live feed:
• US gasoline climbs to an average $4 for the first time since August 2022
• Donald Trump mulls exiting war without reopening Strait of Hormuz: WSJ
• Iran fires missiles at Israel and also hits a Kuwaiti oil tanker
• US equity futures rise while Asian stocks fall; oil fluctuates
And the summary of prominently headlined story a bit further down the page on oil rising to $200 if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked:
• Oil may surge to $150 or $200 a barrel if the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz persists over the next six to eight weeks because of the Iran war, according to energy-market consultancy FGE NexantECA.
• Chairman Emeritus Fereidun Fesharaki said every week, 100 million barrels of oil is not going through, and every month, 400 million barrels are not going through, and these losses to the market will be astronomical.
• Fesharaki dismissed the effectiveness of verbal interventions, saying the physical reality of supply disruptions will ultimately drive prices, and the market will choke, and the prices will go up.
So what to make of all of this?
First, this is part of a well-established Trump pattern, of putting off decisions and actions whenever possible and particularly when pressures, while still trying to find ways to look and act dominant and hopefully open up new options that way. But the walls are closing in. Neither flailing about nor delay will give Trump new operating room.3
Second, the massively impulsive Trump may have been talking out loud or even just trying new barker’s patter to keep Mr. Market from going into freakout mode.
Trump may actually be pursing the insane scheme of trying to remove Iran’s enriched uranium. From a highly informative if deceptively chatty talk between Wilkerson and Stanislav Krapivnik.
Wilkerson describing overall versus deployable force levels and warning that Israel has told Trump where the Iranian enriched uranium is, and adding:
And if I were Trump and I believed that, I’d kick myself in the ass all the way down Fifth Avenue [clears throat] because Israelis have been very wrong on so many things up to this point. 4
Trita Parti came to the same conclusion as Chas Freeman did as soon as the press reported that Trump was moving a relatively small number of special forces into theater for a ground operation or raid:
An increasingly likely scenario for ground troops is that Trump will seek to take three Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf claimed by the UAE – Abu Musa, and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs.
Both pro-Israeli voices in the US and prominent Emirati accounts have been pushing this… pic.twitter.com/o5U4NKHpfr
— Trita Parsi (@tparsi) March 30, 2026
Freeman had pointed out that capturing these islands should be within the capability of these units without running undue risk and would also have strategic value by making the UAE happy. If you click though, you will see that Parsi adds that some Israel backer in the US have pumped for this move, and there could be an additional benefit:
But the GCC has a unified position on the three islands in support of the UAE. Making the war about the islands may be motivated by an attempt to push Oman and Qatar in support of the US/Israeli war, but under the false rubric that it is now about “liberating” the islands.
However, Parsi also cautions that even if the US can seize these islands, holding on to them is another matter.
Some kinetic war updates:
This History Legends presentation goes well beyond the RUSI report we featured recently. Pleaee ignore his penny stock paid promotion; he does need to pay for his overheads. The discussion includes revealing detail like Gulf states wasting Patriots by setting them to auto fire mode and shooting at a lot of Iran decoys as a result.
Daniel Davis continues to channel his inner Walter Cronkite, here decrying Trump’s enthusiasm for war crimes:
Davis has also made this point regularly but it can’t be said often enough:
No American should die for Israel’s war with Iran https://t.co/vxI9Q9dEiO
— David Hogg 🟧 (@davidhogg111) March 30, 2026
The problem with denials like this is that the initial report takes hold in the minds of most and is not readily displaced:
Iran denies attack on Kuwait’s desalination plant.
The spokesperson of Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya (Armed Forces) says the brutal aggression of the Zionist regime against Kuwait's desalination plant under the pretext of accusing Iran, which occurred in recent hours, is a sign of the… https://t.co/kSkQuxfM8X
— Arya Yadeghaar (@AryJeay) March 30, 2026
On Israel’s deteriorating situation:
🚨 Holy shit, catastrophic 12 hours for Israel and the US:
– Iran bombed Israel’s TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL FACTORY — the largest generic drug manufacturer on Earth. Chemical leaks. Secondary explosions. Factory burning.
– Iran knocked an Israeli POWER PLANT in the Negev completely… pic.twitter.com/zrzjVoSRiW
— 🇺🇸 Ronald Carter (@USronaldcarter) March 30, 2026
And from Hindustan Times:
And on other fronts, from Bloomberg’s live feed overnight:
Iran’s National Security Committee has approved a bill that would impose fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the semi-official Fars news agency reported, citing a committee member. The bill, if it becomes law, would:
- Impose a toll system in rials
- Ban passage of US and Israeli vessels through the strait
- Assert Iran’s sovereignty over the strategic waterway
- Ban any country that imposes unilateral sanctions against Iran.
Oman is slated to help shape the legal framework, Fars said.
Asking for payment ir rial make a huge amount of sense. It will create demand for the currency. Recall that the Bessent raid and resulting high costs for merchants triggered the initially peaceful protests. It also keeps China from being more involved than necessary.
Ben Panga found additional detail from Fars News Agency Telegram inParliament Security Committee approves plan to impose tolls on Strait of Hormuz :
🔹A member of the National Security Commission announced the approval of the Strait of Hormuz Management Plan in this commission.
The key areas of this plan are as follows :
🔹Strait security arrangements
🔹Ship safety
🔹Environmental issues
🔹Financial arrangements and rial toll systems
🔹Ban on Americans and the Zionist regime from passing through
🔹Implementing the sovereign role of Iran and the armed forces
🔹Cooperation of the esteemed country of Oman in the structure of the legal regime
🔹Ban on countries participating in unilateral sanctions against Iran
The contradictions in Trump’s own messaging and that of his team are managing to reach new levels:
And to add to Trump fantasies:
This guy? Lol pic.twitter.com/eJkeEHvTwI
— GomJabbar (@gomjabbar88) March 30, 2026
Larry Johnson opined by e-mail this might be a gambit to try to discredit Ghalibaf.
Done for now. See you tomorrow.
____
1 It is precious to see Marco Rubio in particular carry on about Iran violating international law via its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz after the US has repeatedly and loudly embraced a might-makes-right, blood-and-claw foreign policy replacing our prettier and actually at times constrained “rules based order”.
2 Please do not try arguing that Team Trump has brilliant a plan. Connecting dots that don’t connect NO1 (hat tip Aurelien):
There’s this theory that’s making the rounds. You’ve probably seen it.
Trump is running the most dangerous geopolitical blitz since Bretton Woods.
And the endgame isn't a trade war.
There's a theory circulating that Trump is running a far more ambitious play — one designed to collapse BRICS, force China's hand, and lock in dollar dominance for… pic.twitter.com/Z5IrGSrfzZ
— GC Cooke (@Gccooke) March 5, 2026
….Setting aside each individual step, the theory has a fundamental architectural flaw: it assumes sequential execution without adversarial adaptation…
And above all – it assumes Trump even has a plan.
A detailed, multi-year, sequenced geopolitical strategy with coherent endgame objectives. The man who announced Canadian tariffs via social media at 11pm, who publicly feuded with Canada’s prime minister while needing Canada as a “diplomatic bridge” in this very theory. The man whose administration has contradicted itself on Venezuela policy multiple times in the same week.
The moves are real. The chaos is real. Connecting them into a master plan is seductive precisely because it offers the one thing the current moment doesn’t: the comfort that someone, somewhere, knows what they’re doing.
3 Forgive a cinematic interlude but I am reminded of a scene where Michael Clayton has to tell a large client of his firm that there is no good way out of the mess he created for himself:
4 Wilkerson offered insights on Iranian targeting:
Or someone else on the inside as it were is actually feeding them information because they have been so on with this first tier of targets they hit. We couldn’t have done that. We couldn’t have selected that many targets with that many variations of munitions and different conditions in each of the countries and hit them all the way they did. I mean they didn’t miss a damn thing…. They hit every everything they wanted to hit, they hit…even to the Mossad/CIA underground facility in Erbiel in Kurdistan.
He also soy Iran destroyed Bahrain’s desalination plant, the biggest in the Middle East. Krapivnik described the considerable time and effort involved in building a new one
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Here in Oz petrol (gas) prices are still climbing. The government has cut the fuel tax by half but that will quickly be overtaken by rising prices so is pointless. It would have been smarter to limit fuel purchases instead to stretch out supplies. How bad is it getting? Like this-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehk9XqcPkSw (5:49 mins) – some language
Yes, it would be much wiser to let prices rise free of government meddling, and then demand will adjust organically.
We have a similar idiotic policy here in GA as seen by politicians who cut the gasoline tax temporarily. For those whose livelihoods depends on cheap gas, I can see it, but otherwise it encourages mindless consumerism and discourages conservation of resources.
$4.50 USD last fill-up [Chicago ‘burbs] – an increase of ~$1 from pre-Iran-war.
5.09 regular, cash, self serve. Diesel is over 6.50 gallon. SW, Ore-Gone; end of the delivery line prior to crossing into N. CA. Howl, real loud. Pushing 70; riding the e-bike 16.6 miles round trip for provisions…😳🐈⬛❤️
Regular in NZ is currently around $7.40 USD, while premium is $8.10 USD. According to the relevant government authority, there is 59 days worth of petrol and 54 days of diesel currently inbound:
Fuel stocks update
Not quite sure what is going to happen after that runs out however…
Saw diesel priced at over $2 more than 87 octane gas per gallon in Tehachapi on Hwy 58 yesterday @ $7.74 @ a Love’s, which is usually much more competitive on price.
An 18 wheeler rig takes 200-300 gallons per fill-up and the average price of diesel was $4.87 on February 27th in Cali, so nearly a grandido more per fill-up on a larger gas tank rig.
When does the ‘Kessler Inflation Syndrome’ hit, where inflation bounces off of everything?
Between Biden and Trump I guess we are going to find out whether it’s better to have a president with dementia who isn’t really in charge or one who is.
How confident are we that DJT is actually in charge? It has been said that he is strongly influenced by the views of the last person he has spoken to. He’s seemingly more assertive than JRB, certainly a lot more voluble, but perhaps he is being managed by the people around him. Given that he seems to have little interest in “information” (it is reported [Michael Wolff, for example] that he doesn’t read memos, doesn’t like data-rich briefings, etc.), it might not be that difficult to steer him into specific courses of action by curating what little information he gets.
Perhaps the question isn’t so much “is DJT more dangerous than JRB was” but rather “are the people around DJT more dangerous than the people around JRB were?” I am fully prepared to believe that they are.
I think the Iran War was likely believed to be over early regardless of whether Trump was reading details or not. The US foreign policy establishment is a mess. Western ones too for that matter. The details is just foreign policy types trying to pretend they knew the obvious.
Vance and Rufio are out there, and I think they see each other as a dork in the way. Wiles came up via Huntsman and Rick Scott, so I can see that faux-masculine Reagan vibe just being on repeat much like Shrub.
The perma-Iran war group is there which includes Kirschener.
The traditional GOP “economic” types are probably splitting between the true believers and the people who occasionally know those letters next to stock symbols represent real companies.
Then there is the run of the mill political operation. The GOP polling was bleak in 2/28 with a long Summer on the horizon. What was pitched as a morale boost for the GOP base while they blamed Sleepy Joe has turned into a freefall to keep things semi-stable (Ex. hold Texas force the Dems to at least spend money in Maine which Team Blue is going to do with the elite support for Mills).
I think the South Park episode of the Khristians at the White House gets to the heart of the matter. When that class of conspicuous consumption can’t enjoy a good monster truck show at church, what happens? There is an End of Days crowd, but Mega-churches pitch gross consumption. I wonder about the little private schools that have popped up in recent days. What will the parents do if they can’t make truck payments? The GOP politicos having to answer these questions is probably coming pretty fast, and the Democrats have been so feckless that the GOP has nothing to keep it in shape where they have programs like NCLB on the shelf to pull out as a bauble because of the short term wins for the little people before the problems set in.
Getting back to Trump, it’s not just that he listens to the last person in the room, but like Biden and Shrub, he knows absolutely nothing. Unlike Biden and Shrub, Trump is also a certifiable genius (sarcasm). Biden and Shrub would occasionally learn on the job, but Trump won’t do that. He will only hear the panic.
It sounds like Rufio has won if the plan is to just blame Europe for all our ills.
I will speak as someone who has NEVER liked trump in any way, has never respected or believed a single word that has come out of his mouth. I think that he doesn’t really care what people tell him, possibly because he might think that they’re trying to use him, or get something from him, just as he does with them. Everything is transactional. With that in mind, trump might listen to people, that much is ‘part of the deal,’ but he’s guided, I believe, by thinking that he’s the only one who can save the country. He’s said as much, more than once. It’s a given that most people think that trump listens, and is persuaded by, the last person he’s spoken with. But really, isn’t that last person always that genius that lives in that high rise between donald trump’s two ears? Trump is always guided by his malignant narcissist self. He always knows more than anyone else, he’s a ‘great man of history,’ probably the greatest. Didn’t he say that he invaded Iran because his ‘gut’ told him to act? His advisors are there merely as props in the staged spectacle that is donald trump.
“…by thinking he’s the only one who can save the country.”
Yes, but he doesn’t want to save the country for the sake of the country: he only wants to save the country because he will profit from it and he wants to be remembered as the greatest president ever. (He might turn out to be the last American president.)
Both of these men has some form of dementia, it just manifests in different ways. Which means that the US has been run by senile leaders since Trump took over in 2017.
A couple of days ago, a TwiXter account (I don’t remember which) posted one of those videos of a Russian/Ukrainian FPV drone chasing and killing a Ukrainian/Russian soldier. Nothing particularly remarkable about it. We have all seen dozens of those, and there are probably thousands of them on the net. But then, with the probable US ground operation in Iran in mind, the guy added the comment: “Imagine what the reaction of the American public is going to be when videos like this one start flooding the space, where the soldier being chased and killed is not a Russian/Ukrainian/…, but an American.”
I suppose that the US government knee-jerk reaction to those videos is going to be censorship, but that would be just a band-aid that would work a weekend at best, and that real political consequences would kick in quite quickly.
That leads to a more general reflection: The guys running the show in Washington are absolute fuckwits. They live in a fake reality made up of fake images and soundbites, with fake questions asked by fake journalists, that take as good the fake answers of the fake suits that populate the fake positions that they occupy running a fake government and a leading a fake army. A complete echo chamber.
When you live in such a world, rule number one is: don’t let reality in. Reality is a fake world’s kryptonite. And yet, they are just about to let a near-real time flow of reality flood their fiction world. The only possible conclusion here is not that they don’t understand the world, the real one out there, it is that they don’t even understand the rules of their own fake world.
Scandal breaking out in Italy: It seems that the Italian government wouldn’t allow U.S. flights into Sigonella, the big U.S. air base in Sicily.
https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2026/03/31/sigonella-usa-italia-mediooriente-notizie/8340847/
Ansa Agency, in English:
https://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2026/03/31/crosetto-denied-us-permission-to-use-sigonella-base_ed3dbaca-21fb-444c-942c-37f08c8c4ea4.html
More details. Wanted in Rome is a reliable site:
https://www.wantedinrome.com/news/italy-refuses-us-access-to-sigonella-air-base.html
Let’s see what happens: These reports are only a few hours old.
Meanwhile, as the FQ article indicates, plenty has been going on at Aviano, an even bigger base in northeastern Italy.
More soon.
Mille Grazie … after reading all three, it’s clear that uses of these bases have terms, condition and procedures associated with them – something I did not realize. It’s not a free-for-all. This is very interesting indeed.
Those terms and conditions would be the Structure Of Forces Agreement, (SOFA), that the US and every nation with US bases signs.
The agreements have been subjects of contention in the past. The SOFA with Japan used to permit prosecution of US soldiers for crimes in Japan only by the US, until the many highly publicized rapes of Japanese women in Okinawa without any real punishment of the Americans compelled the Japanese government to demand a change in the agreement to permit prosecution under Japanese law in Japan. The Iraqi government refused to renew the SOFA after the Nisour Square Massacre — when US security contractors opened fire on a crowd with automatic weapons because of a traffic jam — and that was when most US troops left.
Chalmers Johnson’s Blowback contains a good discussion.
Thank you!
I feel the scorched earth move under my feet
I feel the infrastructure tumbling down, tumbling down
I feel my heart start to trembling
Whenever you’re around
Ooh, Donald baby, when I see your face
Mellow despite the obvious dismay
Oh, destiny, I can’t stand it
When you look at me that way
I feel the scorched earth move under my feet
I feel the buildings tumbling down, tumbling down
I feel my heart start to trembling
Whenever you’re around
Oh so daring online, when you’re near me
And you tenderly call out your game
I know that my emotions
Are something I just can’t tame
I’ve just got to not have you, baby
I feel the scorched earth move under my feet
I feel the infrastructure tumbling down, tumbling down
I feel the scorched earth move under my feet
I feel the buildings tumbling down
I just lose control
Down to my very soul
I get a hot war all over
I feel the scorched earth move under my feet
I feel the world tumbling down,
Tumbling down, tumbling down…
I Feel the Earth Move, by Carole King
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6913KnbMpHM&list=RD6913KnbMpHM
Can you do “I’m Proud to be Unamerican”? (Or have I missed it?)
The Mad King is lashing out at France now, specifically, for refusing flight paths over French territory of anything headed to Israel with munitions. Also telling other countries to open the Straight. Angry with UK again too. Sounds related to what was said in the WSJ report.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/get-your-own-oil-trump-mocks-uk-other-countries-amid-iran-chokehold-on-hormuz-slams-france-for-being-unhelpful/articleshow/129924758.cms
This “reporting” from the NYT Tel Aviv stenography team (“Iran’s Fractured Leadership Is Struggling to Coordinate, Officials Say”) is getting massacred in the comments.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/30/us/politics/iran-leaders-trump-war.html
The France tweet is in the post. You might have arrived before the final version was up.
Thanks for the NYT sighting. Will read with amusement.
Yeah sorry, didn’t see that you’d covered the Trump France and UK screeds already. Thanks for another incredible update summary of the madness.
The report that was linked by M Ots yesterday and I commented on stated France was refusing overflight selectively based on the payload.
Now, that may have been imprecision and the article should have stated end user, I.e. Israel. But I wonder if it was accurate and France is refusing to allow specific munitions. The immediate thought is tactical nukes but it could be phosphorus or anti-personnel cluster mines or anything else that France has sworn not to use. Or it could be bunker busters or thermobaric weapons.
There’s some clarification from a French diplomatic source to Le Monde – not all military flights to Israel are suspended but are being approved on a case-by-case basis after a request for diplomatic overflight clearance. They also note that they have allowed non-combat C17s and KC-135s to land and take off from French military air strips.
https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2026/03/31/en-direct-guerre-au-moyen-orient-donald-trump-affirme-que-la-france-a-ete-tres-peu-cooperative-en-iran_6674837_3210.html?#id-2950100 (in French)
Seems the Mad King had a fit about having to ask before doing and (perhaps) something got refused. I pray it wasn’t nukes.
Donald Trump tells EU to make peace with Iran, just like Spain. You see, maybe he can learn something from his experience.
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116323481956698353
“All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil! President DJT”
Re the Nytimes article and the reader comments.
As these comments are moderated by Time employees who likely need their jobs, some comments are likely suppressed by moderators.
If critical comments are getting approved by the moderators, the Times may be becoming aware that the Times’ empire support might not be wearing well with their paying subscribers.
Maybe the Times is watching the raw comments feed with dismay.
One can hope.
In Canada, The Globe and Mail solved all these pesky comment concerns months ago by announcing that commenting was closed on all reporting and opinion pieces concerning the “Middle East” — to prevent the “dissemination of misinformation”
Earlier on, a massive Zionist campaign dominated G&M comments but as the Israeli genocide became impossible to justify, sentiment shifted, and when the majority of comments expressed horror at Israeli crimes against humanity: Shazam! “Comments are Closed”
Let’s see how the NYT responds.
The Guardian US took care of the problem some time ago, after the pesky Sanders candidacy.
That went up 11 hours ago. Oddly, one single comment has been allowed to post since. You can probably guess its tone.
(Just to be clear, that’s for that article only, not all reporting.)
Can confirm Don’s report — the Globe and Mail conspicuously closes comments on any story which might involve (or even tangentially allude to) Israeli conduct either via domestic genocide or attacks on its neighbours. Occasionally a Business section story about oil prices escapes this treatment and the comments there quickly fill up with complaints about this pattern.
They must think their readers are children. I don’t know what they think they are accomplishing with this Streisand effect blunder.
They want munitions for Ukraine and backstops against Russia instead.
What if what we are seeing is the end of American military involvement in western Asia?
The retreats from Afghanistan and Vietnam writ large.
Done for today. If you arrived before the time of this comment, please refresh this page and re-skim.
Sorry, didn’t see that you’d covered the Trump France and UK screeds already. Thanks for another incredible update summary of the madness.
Re: the hints of European push-back on military uses of airspace by US,
I wonder whether the nations of Europe are more committed to a US-dominated NATO than they are to their own economies.
Could a prolonged US/Iran conflict break NATO?
> Could a prolonged US/Iran conflict break NATO?
Not in one fell swoop, but the fissures are already there. NATO serves no actual purpose post-fall-of-the-Berlin-wall. It’s a poisonous, destructive anachronism that exists only as a tax by various military industrial complexes on the economies of member nations.
Mark Sleboda in the recent Krapivnik video made the joking comment that comparing Trump to the mafia was a slander to those fine upstanding Italian American businessmen, or words to that effect. Humor aside, I was reminded of an interview that Andrea Camilleri had with an old-school Sicilian mafia boss (he later fictionalised the event in a Montalbano episode) talking about the nature of power. I apologise in advance for the dimly remembered paraphrasing, but the boss asserts that the mafia do not like killing, that killing means that they have failed, that you have not done what they wanted you to do. If you do not do what they want you do, and they have to kill you, this is a failure and a loss because you have still not bent to their will. I hasten to add that I mention this not to elevate mafia morality but rather to make the adjacent point about the idea of power it conveys. When I first came across Camilleri’s report of the conversation it started clarifying a niggling doubt about neocon thinking that I could never put my finger on. Going way back to the early days when the neocons made the case in Rebuilding America’s Defenses, (PNAC) of fighting simultaneous or near simultaneous wars to demonstrate power in furtherance of ‘American global leadership’ i.e. not wars of simple strategic necessity, they seemed in danger of making the conceptual error of confusing demonstrations of power (actions, war, killing) with actual power (bending the other to your will) and that the former could be a source of failure. Obviously, there is a relation between the two and I realise this is a bit simplistic (I add the caveat that I am no master of game theory) but just throwing it out there to see if it chimes any bells. Having just read (cofounder PNAC) Robert Kagan’s most recent, America Is Now a Rogue Superpower in The Atlantic, I doubt any bells would chime. His main objection to the attack on Iran seems to be sequencing: Russia first. That said, reading his article, one can hear a few bells tolling.
Another aspect of those old-school Sicilian mafia bosses was that they did not target kids. You don’t do that. Trump and Israel, however, have made it a practice to bomb Iranian schools which would disgust those mafia bosses.
There is a very real distinction between the morality of an if you like adjacent society – the morality of a criminal, whose line of work and way of life is inimical to the legitimate world – and the absolute moral vacuum of our present leadership. There is no parallel structure for our alleged betters, there is only their supremacy unbounded.
Why are we pretending that these Rothschild/Rockefeller foot soldiers are anything other than nihilistic baby eaters?
They literally rape, kill, and eat little kids and blackmail each other.
They will do whatever it takes for their rich pedo masters.
Going by my nature shows on TV when rutting males fight over the females they rarely fight to the death but head butt and struggle to see which animal is strongest. However winning males are quite capable of killing the offspring of their rivals.
Of course highly evolved animals like we humans would never act that way. Trump and Bibi though may be evolution in reverse. Make it stop.
Just to add that the Sicilian mafia do kill children going by the iconic if fictional Godfather film. Vito has to flee to America because the local Don wants to kill him so he won’t grow up to seek revenge and kill the Don (which he eventually does). Perhaps this is the true, if hidden, motive for the Israelis to kill all those Gazans including women and children.
>Of course highly evolved animals like we humans would never act that way
I think this was a few weeks ago but Professor Finkelstein had a wonderful bit of commentary on Trump and his apelike mannerisms. There also quite a few edits of Trump as a monkey with bananas floating around (probably derived from the Putin monkey memes)
I can’t find the original tweet or youtube video so I apologize for sharing this facebook link. Should still be viewable without logging in
https://www.facebook.com/veteransforpeace/videos/profesor-norman-finkelstein-on-donald-trump/4050209721908695/
The interesting thing is MBS has spent a fortune on US arms dealers. They were paying the protection money, but now, they have to look at other options because the US only offers bug out spots now.
From Chapter XII of The Prince:
Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous; and if one holds his state based on these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe; for they are disunited, ambitious, and without discipline, unfaithful, valiant before friends, cowardly before enemies; they have neither the fear of God nor fidelity to men, and destruction is deferred only so long as the attack is; for in peace one is robbed by them, and in war by the enemy. The fact is, they have no other attraction or reason for keeping the field than a trifle of stipend, which is not sufficient to make them willing to die for you. They are ready enough to be your soldiers whilst you do not make war, but if war comes they take themselves off or run from the foe; which I should have little trouble to prove…….yet when the foreigners came they showed what they were.
MBS just hired latter day mercenaries.
There’s actually a book about to be released, IIRC “Dangerous Shores” or something like that, that covers the US home front in WW2 including what the mafia did to help the war effort. Apparently the mafia was quite patriotic, effectively keeping union workers from striking during the war.
I’ve read that one of the main reasons the American army had such an easy time in Italy was the general in charge (who I’m blanking on) reportedly carried a monogrammed handkerchief given to the American government by Lucky Luciano ; illustrating his support of the Americans to the mafia chiefs in Italy.
Gen. Mark Clark?
I’m thinking of Patton, he lead the invasion of Sicily, reportedly that hankie opened a lot of doors. The US military had a much easier time there than basically everyone else who tried to invade.
The mafia also encouraged Sicilian-Americans to bring in photos of their old homeland so that America intel could get a better idea of the lay of the land.
The Reality Czar convinced me to re read Camilleri and I’m glad I have, fwiw…
It´s fantastic how dumb these people in all seriousness are.
But even a moron can only thrive in the proper environment.
And the ISW´s BS about Ukraine e.g. was swollowed by MSM entirely.
As if it were pure essence of human military wisdom.
Hopefully despite all the delusion Iran War will be putting a few dents into the myth of US/NATO military supremacy.
Even if it´s not understood that way. But the insight will come around eventually. If only in form of declining wealth at home.
Bit rich that Trump is saying that those countries that need oil and the like should just go “take it” when the US Navy has to stay several hundred kilometers away lest they be hit. If things settle down, then all those countries will get involved. They will send teams of experienced negotiators (sorry, Kallas) to put together a deal where their ships get safe passage and will pay the $2 million toll in Yuan. Then ship’s traffic will more or less go back to normal – except for US and Israeli ships. Trump would be enraged at this and Israel would seek to sabotage some of those ships but it will happen.
Wouldn’t just a few such ships being attacked make the route uninsurable, effectively closing the Strait to all traffic?
I suspect that Trump & Co. think that Iran won’t attack non-belligerent countries, and they may be right about that. Iran doesn’t want the whole world to turn against them. OTOH, those non-belligerent countries probably will be willing to pay the tolls, or “insurance,” if you like.
Well, the IDF is not stupid. Why would they go die for Israel?
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter
Mar 30
BREAKING: Israel’s Channel 12 says that in case of a US ground operation in Iran, Israeli soldiers will not be participating on the ground.
Mar 30, 2026 · 1:43 PM UTC
https://x.com/RWApodcast/status/2038613020608545248#m
Goy vey!
Who cares?!?!
Dow futures are up. Yay!!
Honestly, one wonders who in Trump’s orbit placed some bets on Polymarkets last night or this am.
The corruption to date is staggering.
Taco’s latest mad rantings seem like a transparent ploy to juice the “muckets” on the last day of Q1.
Some nasty looking 401k statements are coming in the mail in April, and any little bit of market manipulation will do to make them slightly less horrific and rage-inducing.
Taco also seems trapped … a writer on Seeking Alpha who predicted the Strait of Hormuz crisis points out that the earliest timeline for getting any sort of resolution to the crisis is 6-8 weeks. That’s assuming he doesn’t go full Taco and just walk away, which is a distinct possibility.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4887286-real-yields-oil-and-conflict-scenarios-mapping-the-path-ahead
But the Xi summit (still no confirmation from China that it’s on, BTW) is in less than 6 weeks, now.
Oops.
US reportedly strikes Iran’s Isfahan with 2,000-pound bunker-buster bombs; Trump shares video
https://m.economictimes.com/news/defence/us-reportedly-strikes-irans-isfahan-with-2000-pound-bunker-buster-bombs-trump-shares-video/amp_articleshow/129914435.cms
Poland says ‘no’ to sending Patriot missile launcher to help US fight Iran
https://tvpworld.com/92385076/polands-defense-minister-says-no-to-us-request-for-polish-patriots
Netanyahu says US-Iran deal will not stop Israeli invasion of Lebanon: report
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejects proposals linking a ceasefire in Lebanon to diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran.
https://www.trtworld.com/article/2b534f81a389
The thought occurs that Hezbollah may have a similar mindset to the Iranian leadership, that a temporary resolution to conflict with Israel is pointless, and so may be aiming for a decisive military resolution.
One has to wonder about morale in the IDF lately,
Israel policy was dictated around getting away with it with Hezbollah serving as an Iranian proxy, but gaming out, an Iranian victory which ultimately is creating a payment system to rebuild and ending the US/Israeli terror on Iran then what does Iran need Hezbollah for beyond solidarity.
For revenge!
Any reliable info on the ‘true’ situation in zioland ? Yesterday two posters with inside information reported on this site that the tel aviv crowd are not seriously inconvenienced. This might be similar to the situation in Kiev a year ago, but it might not. IMO, unless Iran & Co. manage to break the morale of the zio-elites this issue will not be resolved.
I have no first-hand sources. The impression I am getting from the news flow is that Iran is pursuing a policy of tit-for-tat destruction of infrastructure, military and civilian. It’s conceivable to me that until the conflict reaches a level where Israel is clearly aiming for mass casualty events among the Iranian population, Iran will not inflict existential damage, such as shutting down fresh-water production. This seems prudent, given the asymmetry in “unconventional” weaponry.
Iran, being so much larger, can inflict less absolute damage than it absorbs and still come out ahead in terms of “fraction of remaining infrastructure still operating”.
I would guess that with US bases in the Gulf States rendered non-functional, attention will turn to Israeli bases. At some point it may become hard for Israel to launch strikes into Iran.
Perhaps the morale of the military elites will “break” before that of the civilian elites.
It would be fascinating to know how damage to the Gulf State bases has affected air sortie generation rates and the speed of aircraft maintenance/repair.
I am less sure of the extent of destruction of US bases. I see occasional mention of planes still using Al Udeid, and yesterday I saw mention of some mission taking off from Dubai. I’m pretty sure Jordan is still functional. It’s hard to do serious damage to an airport, which, after all, is basically a flat field. Bomb craters can be filled in and leveled fairly quickly. I don’t think we’re going to see any relief from bombing until (1) we see the shortage of jet fuel really hit, and (2) the US runs out of it’s precision, stand-off weapons.
USA, Israel, Gulf associates and maybe a few others want to further degrade Iran’s military capacity. (And USA is hanging around as long as Israel is heavy on the ground in Lebanon).
And the same time, the USA is really serious about getting out of the “opening the Hormuz” business.
Does that sum up the state of things as of this moment?
That talk with Krapivnik and Wilkerson is golden.
Last para:
He also says Iran destroyed …
rather than a reference to tofu…
He also soys Iran destroyed …
ISTM that what the USA and especially its troops need is a “Battle Cry”, something that emphasizes the righteousness of the cause and the dastardly nature of the foe!.
Unfortunately “Remember Minab” is already taken and “Bibi!, Bibi! Bibi” won’t sell in Peoria.
Can the commentariat come up with suggestions?
Tom Stone:
When J.D. Vance advances, God advances!
Or:
Who’s sorry now?
Or:
Remember Kamala is still working 24/7 for a ceasefire!
Borrowing from Wuk, “Torah, Torah, Torah”.
“Real Men go to Lesser Tunb!!!”
“My Tunb’s better than your Tunb!”
I can see some ugly interservice rivalry developing if, say, the 82nd gets Greater Tunb and the Marines get Lesser Tunb. The arguments about who has the bigger Tunb will be … interesting.
I know it is a side observation, but one of the great joys of “Michael Clayton” is how good the rest of the cast is. Dennis O’Hare is good, he always is, but Julie White…omg.
The script ain’t bad either.
Different source, but the quote that keeps popping up in my brain: “they were careless people…”
Tony Gilroy said he spent over 10 years working on drafts. It’s considered one of the finest screenplays ever by pro writers. Clooney and Swinton are both at their peak in it, which is like an exponential multiplier. Swinton playing against type, which is breathtaking to witness.
Also the feel of high end NYC law firm dealings is pitch perfect. The only notes I found sour were the way the WSJ reporter and law firm honcho tangled with each other and the first image of Tilda Swidon being her all sweaty in a bathroom due to nerves. Each a bit excessive. In fact it was hard for Swindon to make credible that Karen Crowder could be very competent a lot of the time and a nervous wreck as often as she was.
Absolutely spot on with the NYC big firm culture and how things were handled around the end of the century. The cars, the hours, poker games, testosterone, middle of the night calls, conversations on the street to avoid surveillance… You’re right that the partner would never have tangled with the reporter. And a woman general counsel was still sort of rare at the time. There’s one I can think of who’s exactly Karen Crowder. I’ll leave it there.
Yeah, when I saw that it was Tony Gilroy, I immediately thought “that’s why this is so good!” Leave it to one of the principals behind the Bourne Trilogy, and the mastermind behind Rogue One and Andor to make such a good movie!
Trump doing a great job of sharp negotiation with himself. However, if he is publicly saying that he’s down with Iran’s control of Hormuz, plus the reality that any future US presence in the ME will only go as far as Israel/Jordan, possibly establishes some ground which might be acceptable to Iran. However, there will not be a peace deal unless Israel wants peace, and unless there is some realistic security guarantees to prevent Israel from attacking in 6 months, there will never be peace. The UAE probably needs to go as well. It looks like Trump is seeding the ground for some great TACO, but don’t see Israel allowing it to happen, unless public opinion there has radically shifted. It is a favorable development, but he should be de-escalating, not planning to send in ground troops.
The Kuwait desalination strike is interesting. I understand why Israel might conduct a false flag, but I can also see why Iran or its allies might strike it and then deny it. It obviously deals a serious blow to Kuwait as a state, and makes it ripe for the picking, and denial may avoid recriminations. I’m curious why Israel would essentially assist in “gifting” Kuwait to Iran, unless they think losing Kuwait will lock Trump into a major escalation. It seems like Iran has territorial ambitions on Kuwait that they may not have with respect to other states in the Gulf. Further, they have threatened to destroy all the GCC electrical and desalination infrastructure, but obviously, you get more leverage if you kill the captives one at a time until there is capitulation.
Why would Iran want to hit Kuwait’s civilian infrastructure? Iran has been very careful to only hit US/Isr mil/intel sites in the gulf.
It has been repeatedly threatened by Professor Marandi and others that a US ground force invasion will result in Iraqi militias taking Kuwait. I would assume that striking the desalination plant would clear out most of your civilian population left and make Kuwait a lot easier to take. That being said, Marandi is not officially an Iranian spokesperson, and there may not be a real intention on the part of the Iranian State to take Kuwait, but I have found Marandi to be fairly reliabile.
I am not saying its not Israel, just that it seems to benefit Iran more clearly than Israel. On the other hand, maybe it is an Israeli psyop to solidify resistance to Iran from the Gulf, I don’t know.
Kuwait is 39% Shia.
Seems like a lot of the Chosen People are choosing to bail on Israel and getting out-
‘Thomas Keith
@iwasnevrhere_
Following the total disruption of Ben Gurion Airport, now limited to just one departing flight per hour, thousands of settlers are fleeing through the Taba crossing into Egypt. While many claim to be departing for the Passover holiday, the reality on the ground shows a massive wave of reverse migration as families seek connecting flights from Sharm El-Sheikh to escape.’
https://nitter.poast.org/iwasnevrhere_/status/2038832883511509008#m
Samsonite Option
Far
We’ll be scrambling far
Running from home
And packing our Star
Free
Only want land for free
We huddle close
Hang that guy from a tree
On our feet then on the planes
We’re running to America
Always looking back again
We’re running to America
Home, Zion isn’t far away
Oh, we’re packin’ two passports today
In the eye of the storm
In the eye of the storm
Home, to an old and grimy place
Take your bed, and stay in your face
Lobby’s light burning warm
Lobby’s light burning warm
Everywhere in the settler’s land
We’re running to America
Making sure that flag is furled
We’re running to America
Got a scheme to wait it out there
We’re running to America
Got a dream, Zion to share
We’re running to America
We’re running to America
We’re running to America
We’re running to America
We’re running to America
Today
Today
Today
Today
Today
My country over thee
Today
Please kill Iran for me
Today
Of Zion I sing
Today
Of Zion I sing
Today
Today
Today
Today
Today
Today
Today
America
Neil Diamond
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pg8pj1x9-t4
Let me get this straight. They’re leaving the Holy Land for the Passover holiday? Ok.
Next year in Jerusalem!
JERUSALEM, March 31 (Reuters) – Israel will destroy all homes in Lebanese villages near the border and 600,000 people who fled the south will not be allowed home until northern Israel is secure, the defence minister said on Tuesday, vowing to inflict Gaza-like destruction in the area.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-destroy-all-houses-near-lebanon-border-defence-minister-says-2026-03-31/
Iran War Chokes Off Helium Supply Critical for AI
Customers for the gas are being told to expect supply cuts and surcharges as Persian Gulf supplies dry up
We have a children’s birthday party with helium balloons. I inhaled helium an was just about to start talking funny to the kids when I read this. Do you suggest that I should hold my breath and keep the helium and maybe sell it on the market for huuuuugeeee profit in a few months? I know it would be to push the limits of breathing and oxygen but this could be the investment of my lifetime. Passive income. All I have to do is nothing. Do not breath.
Better to buy a bunch of inflatable human sized dolls, fill them with helium, then release them all at once so your god bothering neighbors think that they missed the Rapture.
I am sorry caller – all of our stock of inflatable human sized dolls are currently busy screwing the countries of their respective owner/occupiers. You will be pleased to know that as part of our company philosophy of continuous product improvement, we have replaced the helium with bullshit. This reduces their carbon footprint, and helps them feel more life-like.
Given that human sized dolls are usually the ones that end up getting rhymes-with-trucked, a little turnaround seems only fair, wouldn’t you say caller?
Regarding diesel tankers turning away: i guess Europe is getting the Cuba treatment now. Lovely. Unfortunately, I can believe having read Nat’s post from yesterday.
You never give me your money
You only give me your funny crypto paper
And in the middle of faux negotiations
You break down
I never give you any consideration
I only give you the situation
And in the middle of investigation
Things break down
Out of armaments,despite the money spent
See no future, Israel can go get bent
All the money’s gone, nowhere to go
About time Hegseth got the sack
Monday morning quarterback
Hormuz traffic slow, nowhere to go
But oh, that magic feeling, nowhere to go
Oh, that magic feeling, nowhere to go
Nowhere to go
Aaaaahhhhhhhhhh…
Aaaaahhhhhhhhhh…
Aaaaahhhhhhhhhh…
One sweet dream
Pick up the golf bags and get in the limousine
Soon we’ll be away from here
Step on the gas and wipe that tear away
One sweet dream came true today
Came true today
Came true today (Yes it did)
One two three four five six seven par
All good shots go just so far
One two three four five six seven par
All good shots go just so far
One two three four five six seven par
All good shots go just so far
One two three four five six seven par
All good shots go just so far
One two three four five six seven par
All good shots go just so far
One two three four five six seven par
All good shots go just so far
One two three four five six seven par
All good shot go just so far
One two three four five six seven par
All good shots go just so far (fade out)
Aaaaahhhhhhhhhh…
Here comes the Sum King
Here comes the Sum King
Everybody’s laughing
Everybody’s happy
Here comes the Sum King
Quando paramucho mi amore manna de felice carathon
Mundo paparazzi mi amore cicce verdi parasol
Questo abrigado tantamucho que canite carousel
Mean Mister Missive never sleeps in the dark
Talks with a bark trying to save continuity
Sleeps like a cornered horny toad
Puts a flag lapel pin on his clothes
Keeps a tense drama and strikes a pose
Such a mean old man
Such a mean old man
His Attorney General Pam works in a good cop/bad cop shop
She never stops, she’s a go-getter
Takes him out of the files Epstein
No place that he’s ever been
Always Truth Socials out something obscene
Such a dirty old man
Dirty old man
Well they should polygraph Pam
She’s not so good-looking but went with the Mar-a-Lago face plan
Well you should see her in the House perjuring herself, man
Yes they should polygraph Pam
Yeah yeah yeah
Get a dose of her having a bottled blond tilt
She’s killer-diller when she’s dressed to the hilt
She’s the kind of a girl that makes you weary of the world
Yes you could say she was artificially built
Yeah yeah yeah
(Gonna come out now
Ha ha ha
Wow look out.)
She came in through the inauguration window
Protected by a Democrat swoon
But now she sucks her thumb and wonders
By the banks of some army outpost lagoon
Didn’t anybody tell her?
Didn’t anybody see?
Marco’s on the phone to Bibi
Bibi’s on the phone to me
She said she’d always been a devotee
She kissed his arse fifteen times a day
And though she thought he knew the answer
Well, I knew what I could not say
And so when Kristi was fired from the DHS department
And got herself a steady special envoy job
And though she tried her best to help Lewandowski
She could steal, but she could not rob
Didn’t anybody tell her?
Didn’t anybody see?
Donald’s on the phone to Bibi
Bibi is on the phone to me, oh yeah
Once, there was a way to get back homeward
Once, there was a way to get back home
Sleep, pretty darling, do not cry
And I will sing a lullaby
Golden bumblers fill your eyes
More lies await you when you rise
Sleep, pretty darling, do not cry
And I will sing a lullaby
Once, there was a way to get back homeward
Once, there was a way to get back home
Sleep, pretty darling, do not cry
And I will sing a lullaby
Goy, you’re gonna carry that weight,
Carry that weight a long time
Boy, you’re gonna carry that weight
Carry that weight a long time
I never give you any consideration
I only send you my salutations
And in the middle of your ad hoc celebrations
I break down
Goy, you’re gonna carry that weight
Carry that weight a long time
Boy, you’re gonna carry that weight
Carry that weight a long time
Oh yeah, all right
Are you going to be causing more bad dreams
Tonight?
And in the end
The lives you take
Is never equal to the money
You make
Melania is a pretty nice girl
But she doesn’t have a lot to say
Melania a pretty nice girl
But you hardly see her from day to day
I wanna tell her that I loathe her a lot
But I gotta get a belly full of wine
Melania is a pretty nice girl
Someday she’s gonna make a good mime, oh yeah
Someday I’m gonna watch her mime
Medley from Abbey Road, by the Beatles
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CVsBOjeDzk&list=RD6CVsBOjeDzk
very nice! done by hand or by AI?
AI is utterly incapable of that, bless your heart. 100% human.
Actually the tips of my fingers deserve much of the credit in this new and improved digital age, thanks for the compliment.
Masterfully done, and a pleasure to take a bit of relief listening to the original while reading the parody words. Every little bit helps. Thanks to all posting here with intention of helping one process these days of modern times, in this world in which we live in.
Thanks, one of your finest, IMO.
“Goy, you better carry that weight,” indeed.
“Golden bumblers” is another funny turn of a phrase. I presume, as in, the Golden Billion …
Thanks, twas fun getting the bandwidth back together.
Many years ago, I was responsible for testing all sorts of audio equipment and putting music onto the phones of my colleagues. I tested iphones, ipods, CD players, speakers, headsets, etc. I would rip a bunch of songs from my CD collection, convert them to various formats (e.g. flac, mp3), and upload it to a phone. Whenever I listened to this medley suite from Abbey Road through a phone or whatever software player, I would flip out when I heard gaps between these songs. This suite of songs segues from one to the next seamlessly without a gap. My colleagues thought my insistence on proper gapless playback was frivolous, but I thought they were strange for not having musical interests and not having respect for the original recording.
Dark Side of the Moon and live albums in general are notable for being gapless. It would be pretty jarring if I heard gaps in the middle of Jimi Hendrix live album. I haven’t done so in a long time because I’m old now, but part of the art of DJ’ing electronic dance music is transitioning and cross-fading the beats from one song to the next.
Wukchumni, brilliant parody—as always. Or is this a pastiche? Weird Al often called his songs a pastiche because he felt his imitation was paying honor and respect to a popular song, rather than mocking it, which is what a parody strictly does.
Music was of highest importance as I was growing up and it was imprinted in us by hearing the same ditty hundreds if not thousands of times. I can tell you the year a given song came out, but i’d be hard-pressed to name a 1966 book or movie if you asked me for a title.
Songs I usually select to re-do have something in common with the new subject matter, or the words jive with just a wee bit of twerking them around to suit my fancy.
This medley had oh so many entre vous, how could I resist?
Thanks for compliment.
“the G7 countries have decided to urge Russia and China not to restrict hydrocarbon exports due to the threat to the global market.”
https://vz-ru.translate.goog/news/2026/3/31/1406880.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
The G7 countries? You mean the same ones that have been punishing and sanctioning Russia the past four years? That G7.
No, this is a completely different G7. It is a reborn G7 that has gone through the purgatory, seen and parted ways with its sins and evil ways in final purification… uh, sorry, I mixed stuff up here. Too many tabs open and switching between them… yes, it is the same G7. The same shameless G7.
LOL
I think trees means the g7 and friends that attacked Russian tankers.
‘Iran bombed Israel’s TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL FACTORY — the largest generic drug manufacturer on Earth.’
There is a lot of doubts about this in comments to this tweet but I think that it is real because of this-
’13:23 GMT
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has accused Israel of “openly and unashamedly bombing pharmaceutical companies,” calling its leaders “war criminals” in a post on X and sharing a photo of a heavily damaged drug plant. Tehran claims that production lines of a major producer of cancer, anesthesia and specialty medicines were hit in Tuesday’s US‑Israeli strikes.’
Nerves are already frayed in Israel because of the constant runs to the air raid shelters but a lot of them are going to be off their meds pretty soon and that is when things will get ‘interesting.’ Israel is now experiencing the Finding Out stage.
I recall reading in the ’80s (or maybe it was ’90s) that one of the arguments for globalization (in addition to the assumed efficiencies it would lead to) was that as nations became increasingly interdependent on each other for essential parts of their globalized supply chains, the cost/benefit calculus in decisions to undertake armed conflict would shift decisively to the “cost” side. War would become unthinkable because of the damage it would do to the economies of the involved nations.
This seemed unarguable at the time.
I suppose our leadership class has forgotten this, and the present sorrows are a reminder to not forget the wisdom of our ancestors.
If we do learn the lesson, hopefully it will last for a few generations.
Besides the counter arguments such as the famous Russian-German trading situation, the US and Israel are too extremes that justify examples of why these are rules not laws. A US with a larger middle class may perceive the dangers, but too much of the population has been beaten down for so long the expectation is Trump et al will simply get away with it.
Until Hormuz, the US has had means to protect US interests, so bad actors who should have been fired and exiled have stayed around all these years.
Countries such as Russia/Iran/Turkey are in situations where old conflicts have ceased to make sense much like France and the UK, and I think the growing Euro situation of announcing they won’t allow US planes to operate is key. Their foreign policy sector may be run by morons, but eventually, they can see what will happen if the Hormuz Strait doesn’t open.
The other problem is the Gulf States aren’t nation-states but plantations or the ante-bellum South, so much like how we criticize “global elites” for not being connected to their citizens, the Saudis et al have a similar dynamic.
If anything, the Gulfies have it worse. Most other countries went through the phases where bandit lords (in Mancir Olson’s term–well, he just called them bandits) came to an understanding with the populace, that they engage in tacit “cooperation” where the former provide “protection” and the latter pay tribute. Gulfies and other “natural resource” states (one might count Israel anong them, with the Goy guilt as their natural resource.) did not have this experience Bandit lords get their income from the natural resource–practically manna from heaven. They never had to come to an understanding with the populace the way most countries have.
“Countries such as Russia/Iran/Turkey are in situations where old conflicts have ceased to make sense much like France and the UK, and I think the growing Euro situation of announcing they won’t allow US planes to operate is key.”
I’m old enough to remember when the European countries didn’t have any problem with the US military throwing its weight around – as long as it was against Russia.
One would have thought that as greedy as the current bunch is they understand that the world economy tanking is bad for profits.
That’s the same theory that said the Great War, aka WWI, couldn’t happen.
As an alternative, the conjecture that “No two countries that both have a McDonald’s have ever fought a war against each other” has long been disproved as well (Lebanon vs Israel 2006, Russia vs Georgia 2008, Russia vs Ukraine 2022, Serbia vs NATO 1999).
When Britain declared war on Germany at WWI, there were no British providers of khaki dye for the uniforms!
Screw the paper price of WTIC—-has anyone thought of what this is going to do to the street price of adderall? There was already a several-years long supply shortage. “I fear they may have sleepened a waking giant!”
What will the youth of DC do? Particularly the congressional staffers?
US directs embassies to team up against foreign ‘hostility’ – and use X to ‘counter anti-American propaganda’
Cable signed by Marco Rubio and seen by Guardian suggests staff work with Pentagon psychological operations unit
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/30/embassies-campaign-marco-rubio-elon-musk
“But attempts to counter foreign disinformation are not new, although previous administrations funded it through the Global Engagement Center, which lost its funding just before Donald Trump returned to office and had been made the poster child of supposed censorship of conservative speech – though their remit had always been to target foreign disinformation outside the United States .
Last year, the FBI had its foreign influence taskforce dissolved and the state department shuttered the Counter Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference hub.”
Everybody who said all of this would return “rebranded” (or never went away and was rebranded) can take a bow.
Wow, the US and Israel really have their work cut out for them. Everyone knows that the Iranians control the media.
The details of what is happening militarily are very foggy to me. The US dropped a bunker buster bomb on Isfahan? Was that from a bomber, so Iran is not able to stop US planes from flying over their territory? Or can those be delivered via stand-off strikes? And the Tripoli has arrived? But where? Why hasn’t Iran dropped a hypersonic missile on it as it got close to whatever port it arrived at? If US troops are going to invade Iran anywhere (Kharg Island, Chabahar, via Kurdistan, via Kuwait, etc.), how are they going to get close enough to cross the border without Iran’s missiles and drones wiping them out first? Apparently Trump’s top people must think they know the answers to these questions, but the “official” news sites are not sharing the details with us.
Here’s a recent update on the Tripoli,
https://www.naval-technology.com/news/uss-tripoli-middle-east/?cf-view
Is in Indian Ocean, per Tass, quoting CENTCOM
Presumably it’s quite far from any potential landing site and, being a moving target, is difficult to target, like other US naval assets that are at sea in the region.
Agree that a conventional amphibious landing seems very risky. Perhaps there could be an airlift (via helicopter or tilt-rotor) from a closer land site. Troop concentrations being as vulnerable to detection and strike as the Ukraine war has shown them to be, the starting sites might be dispersed, with smaller groups of troops boarding individual or small groups of aircraft which would then proceed to their assigned landing sites.
It sounds very challenging. I hope it doesn’t happen; Iran has threatened further infrastructure strikes as response to a ground incursion. If I am reading the news right, they tend to follow through on their threats.
It would appear that Big Bombs can be equipped with a kit to make them slightly stand-off:
https://www.naval-technology.com/news/us-substitutes-stand-off-for-stand-in-munitions-against-iran/?cf-view
But it may well be that there’s nothing in the target area that Iran cares about enough to be worth showing off some anti-aircraft assets. Let the US get a bit more complacent.
I suspect that Iran, for the moment at least, is giving careful consideration to NOT causing massive US casualties, so as to avoid a “Remember the Tripoli!!!!” moment (h/t to Tom Stone above) and riling up the Americans in the wrong sort of way. Troops sitting in ships are not – for the moment – an issue.
I am not sure that “Trump’s top people” even know there ARE questions about “how do we get troops in and keep them supplied.” The plan probably looks like:
1. Bring troops and ships to the area.
2. ????? – some sort of “do stuff.”
3. Declare victory and go home, if Bibi says it’s okay.
4. If not okay, back to 1. and repeat.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03/31/world/iran-war-oil-trump
Even assuming high end Iranian AD is still intact, they never had many of those (how many, of what, did they have in the first place anyways?) so unless they can get some really good shots, they are likely to keep them hidden. A bit like the Finnish air force during WW2, I guess: they couldn’t openly contest the skies against the Soviets–too weak for that. So they kept their air force dispersed and hidden, taking to skies at opportune moments to knock out careless Russians, doing enough damage to keep them on their toes.
The news is that the Marines have arrived, but they don’t want to tell us where they are — that’s some reporting! Just one story I have seen actually places them: they’re on Diego Garcia Island.
Pretty much all the independent military types say the US is barely flying planes into Iran.
The quote from General Caine said the B-52 raids were because of “growing air superiority,” a lawyerly formulation that sounds like anything but superiority.
Judge Napolitano and Prof. John Mearsheimer. Streamed 2 hrs ago.
Prof. John Mearsheimer : Will Trump Go Kamikaze?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKqf-3h0hM8
Chas Freeman now refers to Hegseth as Secretary of War Crimes. That may catch on.
Atrocity is recognized as such by victim and perpetrator alike, by all who learn aabout it at whatever remove. Atrocity has no excuses, no mitigating argument. Atrocity never balances or rectifies the past. Atrocity merely arms the future for more atrocity. It is self-perpetuating upon itself – a barbarous form of incest. Whoever commits atrocity also commits those future atrocities thus bred.
– Frank Herbert, Children of Dune
Hegseth said on camera that he had enabled US troops to be “vicious” as a deliberate matter of policy. If that is not an incriminating statement, I don’t know what is.
This got the Germans the nickname “Huns.” Do we get to be known as the “Hegsh*t” after this?
He also said that rules of engagement were woke and stupid and the US wasn’t going to follow them.
I’m not sure whether any reporter has yet asked him if that includes the rule about not deliberately targeting civilians, children etc. Probably not, given the highly controlled media environment the Pentagon runs.
Oh, that is really good.
I know the circumstances that have led to it are awful, but I do enjoy Freeman and Wilkerson when they become acid.
Unrelated but today I found out Ambassador Freeman has a website and funnily enough the dedicated poems sections is empty. Unfortunate as I think he is a great orator and writer
https://chasfreeman.net/?page_id=1918
I remember coming away a bit disappointed at his Chinese competence after visiting his website–there was the text of a speech he’d given to a group of Chinese businessmen where “rule of law” and “rule by law” were central concepts, with the concepts written out in Chinese for good effect, except, afaik, the Chinese terms were not what he thinks he was talking about–in fact, almost the opposite. Now, I technically don’t know Chinese Chinese (I know Kanji/Hanja quite well but there are enough instances where Chinese usages are different from Japanese/Korean that one should be careful) but most legal and political concepts are usually written the same way (and this is a big topic among Japanese and Korean politico-legal types with which I am, or at least, used to be, very familiar with.) so I think I’m in the right in this instance. If I am indeed right, the Chinese businessman must have been either confused (if their English wasn’t too good) or amused (if their English was good) after hearing the good ambassador speak.
Focusing on Israel for a moment: it’s clear that their overriding objective is to get the US irretrievably involved in a war with Iran. They have been trying to get this war started for decades, but now it seems to be slipping out of their hands as Trump ponders various ways to end the conflict. They know that after this debacle, the US will not attack Iran ever again (!), so this is their one shot.
Probably their best strategy is (a) get US troops on the ground, in or near Iran, and (b) get a lot of them killed so that the US will be committed to getting revenge in some fashion, giving Trump political cover and overcoming US domestic opposition to the war. Pearl Harbor and the World Trade Center attacks are famous examples of how the US can be enraged by loss of life and driven into precipitate military action, for better or worse.
Israel’s worst fear is obviously that Trump will TACO out and leave Israel twisting in the wind amid the rubble of a largely destroyed Middle East where all US military bases and assets have been abandoned and the idea of the US doing Israel’s bidding in the future is forever discredited. Israeli leaders have obviously bitten off way more than they can chew and are now slowly realizing no one is likely to help them out of their self-created mess.
If a few of those treacherous Arab governments fall, who have been going against their own populations to ally with the Zionist entity, well I don’t think I’d much want to live in Israel if that happens. Payback, if it occurs, is going to be a real b**ch.
I have serious doubts about the claim that troop casualties will cause a remember the Alamo surge in war popularity. It may well do just the opposite. This war is not aggression against the US. Anyone that fogs a mirror can see it is a manufactured justification for aggression against a country that wasn’t really threatening to the US. Less like WW2 more like Vietnam. When the body bags start coming home the enthusiasm for this war will erode. There will be consequences for team Trump. That IMHO is why we are seeing a TACO moment. If the war can end here to big question is how will a negotiating team convince Iran that the Israelis can be contained.
Agreed. Maybe I missed something in Pape’s recent presentation where he talks about a 10% approval boost to Trump’s miserable 30% if troops go in, but he struck me as failing to consider the specifics of this very uncongenial political environment for military predation. He’s pretty wedded to a kind of generalizable 4 step theory of escalation that stumbles over details as it tries to be the sort of “covering law” that social scientists hanker after .
Agreed. If anything, it’s liable to be a double edged sword: there would probably be a momentary upsurge in anger, followed by question and distrust soon after goven the dubious path into the conflict. A skilled president would recognize the problem and know how to pull out (eg Reagan from Lebanon) but Trump is only a third rate actor.
As long as the Strait is closed Iran is winning. The closing of the Strait as a weapon only works if it is closed for a long enough period. You can get by with SPR releases, existing inventories, 30 day lifts on Russian or Iranian oil on the water, etc…. However, the economy can’t overcome the Strait being closed for some amount of time. We don’t know that exact time, could be 3 months, could be 9 months, could be a year. Everyone is in agreement that there is a time when it breaks the world economy, the debate is just when it will happen. So if Iran demonstrates the ability to keep it closed (under all escalations from the US) they are winning this phase of the War.
Yes, and adding: as long as Iran survives as a state, they “win”. Iran is in a war of existence.
Many analysts featured here on NC have said that even if the war ended today, it would take months and even years to rebuild energy infrastructure and output to pre-war levels. The knock-on effects of LNG, nitrogen, urea, helium, sulfuric acid etc. shortages are in the pipeline so to speak. Even if the war ends today, there will be consequences.
But wait, the S&P is up, Brent is down today. Nothing to worry about eh. Maybe I’m just paranoid,
Just to add that win the game rather than the hand, Iran has to convert that highway robbery into taxation.
“Winning” is in large part Iran’s establishing tolls on the Strait. This forces the West to lift its sanctions (otherwise they cannot purchase rials and sanctioners will not be allowed passage) and provides Iran with funds to rebuild and to reinforce its regional military power.
There is a curious analogue to the sequence of events that sparked the opening of the Opium War: regardless of the macro-causes, the immediate events that led to the hostilities were:
1. China imposes conditions on foreign ships–if they sign the pledge not to traffic in opium, they may trade.
2. Many non-British and even a good number of British ships were willing to sign the pledge, and the local British authorities had to use a lot of, eh, tricks to keep the British ships from breaking the ranks.
3. The shooting war started when the first British merchant ship broke the ranks. The British warships tried to detain it. Chinese warships sailed out to stop the British. The British blew the Chinese ships out of water.
So, we are at phase 2, more or less: Iran has laid doen the law. More and more ships will defy the US demands and abide by Iranian rules. It is not difficult to see US trying to get to step 3: perhaps not by shooting at the Iranians enforcing their rules, perhaps, but, as has been pointed out many times already by many, by detaining or attacking ships abiding by Iranian rules, by demonstrating that Iran can’t protect them, any more than those Chinese junks. So, unlike the Opium War, Step 3 may not lead to escalation in violence, but it would certainly mean further strangulation of the ship traffic.
It doesn’t take a genius to conclude that sooner or later Israel and the US were going to attack Iran. Hardliners in both countries have been champing at the bit for decades and for reasons that surprised me have not launched this war until now.
I don’t think there’s the slightest doubt that the Iranian military has been intensively planning for this exact war for at least 20 years. Doubtless they have every possible target of military or economic significance mapped down to the yard and assembled into target packages; I assume that when the war actually started, all they had to do all they had to do was push a literal or metaphorical button.
Saying that “someone on the inside was feeding them information” suggests that this was all some kind of hasty reactive plan on Iran’s part.
I took Wilkerson’s statement to mean China and or Russia providing intelligence, surveillance and targeting data. I am sure Col. Wilkerson is aware that Iran has been preparing for many years.
I think he was willing to entertain that Iran, contrary to widespread perceptions that its intel services are no good, either had humint or some very other intel (Iran has done some impressive hacking).
To be fair, it’s not like bases and radars were going to get up and wander off, so those could be dialed in down to the meter.
Grunching planes on the ground can need better intel, something closer to “real time,” but as you say even that isn’t terribly hard to obtain through a variety of sources.
I’ve only heard dribs and drabs of Christian end time fantasies, but doesn’t Israel and Iran (Mog?) both have to be destroyed in order for blonde, blue eyed Jesus to re-appear? Perhaps the faithful in the Pentagon and elsewhere are now helping the Iranians to destroy Israel after having worked so diligently to ensure it’s there to be sacrificed.
It increasingly smells like a Hormuz toll will be settled as a result of this step of the great 5th dimensional geostrategic gamble.
Something stroke me about NO1’s article when talking about stablecoins. He wrote that what these need is ‘trust’. My feeling is that what stablecoins need is distrust… in the traditional currencies.
It’s not different from, say, gold, is it? IIRC, gold prices hit the low mark (in early 90s?) when the trust in dollar (and hopes for the eventual coming of Euro) was/were high.
This would actually be a great outcome compared to most of the alternatives if it happened. If the US/Israel unilaterally stopped shooting, as Trump seems to be trying to find a reason to do, there’s a limit to how long Iran would keep going before world opinion turned against them (plus they’ve tried to present themselves as being in proportionate response mode).
I have two big reservations about this. Firstly, it’s in Israel’s interest to keep US fighting Iran as long as possible (well, it’s not really – it’s insanely self-destructive, but they think it’s in their interest) and I struggle to imagine any US government having the spine to make that call over Israeli objections, least of all a Trump Republican government.
Secondly, the US has described Iran tolling the Strait as an unacceptable outcome. They may not be able to re-open it, but they can probably keep it closed very easily simply by threatening shipping themselves. Granted this would be insanely self-destructive as well (an open-but-tolled Strait is vastly better for the US than a closed Strait, whether or not US ships can transit) and a ‘stupidest timeline’ scenario, but you know what we say about that here at NC.
Europe pushes back on some US military operations as concerns over Iran war mount
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/europe-pushes-back-us-military-operations-concerns-over-iran-war-mount-2026-03-31/
More UK Troops to be Sent to Middle East, Defence Secretary Says
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7vq76g45rvo
Italy Denies US Military Flights at Sigonella Base for Iran operations
https://www.thebroadpost.com/blog/italy-denies-us-military-flights-at-sigonella-base-for-iran-operations
IRGC threatens strikes on US tech giants across the Middle East
https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/iran-eastern-states/artc-irgc-threatens-strikes-on-us-tech-giants-across-the-middle-east
Russia demands Ukraine withdraw from Donbas within 2 months, Zelensky says
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-demands-ukraine-withdraw-from-donbas-within-2-months-zelensky-says/
Superb summary and bespoke analysis. If only people like you were inside the Blob. Sadly we get Jake Sullivan. I think the Vogon constructor fleet is due any minute now. Time to find my towel.
P
Thanks for the History Legends video, an excellent presentation of the attrition stats (inventory, depletion and production rates for all the main munitions) and some other interesting material.
Alexandre Robert has in the past commented that his videos are often demonetized by YouTube so I do forgive the sponsored segment. And it actually got me thinking. Does the reduction in the supply of sulfur have a corresponding effect on the production of copper? Will AI compete with the green transition for the limited copper supply, I wonder.
Last week I needed to get a new phone as my old one was pickpocketed. I went to the Apple Store and they didn’t have any iPhones. WAT? I confirmed later that there is indeed a shortage owing to difficulty getting memory chips because AI.
Can somebody more knowledgeable than I explain something to me? I am under the impression that only US and Israel ships are strictly *prevented* from using the Strait. Other countries’ ships may use the strait if they pay a fee and are approved by the IRGC. Is this right? If so, how is it also true that “100 million barrels of oil is not going through” every week, and every month, “400 million barrels are not going through”.
I am assuming that not all these barrels are on ships owned by the US or Israel.
No, the law was just put to the Iranian Parliament so procedures are being put in place.
Issues:
Many shippers are not willing to send their vessels into a war zone under any circumstances
Some shippers are willing to do so IF war risk riders were available at not catastrophic cost. That is either not much or not at all the case
Many shippers do business with the US and the E-3, which have Iran sanctions in place. They can’t trade with Iran (pay the tolls) and not violate sanctions
Given that the law is not yet finalized, I am not sure where things stand BUT Iran regards all the Gulf states ex Oman as being co-belligerents with the US and Israel so their cargoes cannot pass.
Thanks that is very helpful. Lots of moving parts at the moment.
And, even if all of the floating and stored oil is somehow shipped, the producers aren’t producing because of actual damage to facilities, or the people who were working in production do not want to be in a theater of war, or needing to shut down production because no place to store it. And, shutting down and re-starting production is a BIG deal, takes a long time to re-start, and rate might never recover back to what it was due to the unanticipated interruption.
Just found this, which provides some details on what is emerging as Iran’s “three tier” approach to Hormuz.
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2039005034516566027?s=46
Thank you, WJ. A brilliant analysis of the state of the Strait. The conclusion:
“Iran lost its Air Force. It lost its navy. It lost two thirds of its production capacity. It retained the only thing that matters: 39 kilometers of coastline on both sides of the narrowest point. The U.S. Navy will not enter. Chinese tankers will. And the sorting algorithm processes another vessel, collects another yuan payment, and demonstrates once more that geography is the one asset that cannot be degraded by precision strikes,
The strait is not closed. It is under new management.”
The market games continue; CL futures just dropped 5 points, SPX popped by 0.50% on a single bar, up over 2.20% now for the day.
I don’t know what fantasy land Wall Street is living in.
Headlines on Bloomberg that the “Iranian President says it will end the war if it gets security guarantees”, and then that “Iran is reiterating Iran’s demands on ending war”. I am hesitating because this could be an epic short covering troll that would show Trump bullshit works both ways.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2026-03-31/iran-war-live-updates-trump-oil-markets?srnd=homepage-americas&cursorId=69CBFC1449BC00A8
Indeed. Somehow Wall Street is trading the headline rather than looking at the guarantees list–including reparations, control over Hormuz, and permanent end to Israeli strikes against Iran.
Brent crude hits 119, then crashes back to 104.
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#Brent-Crude
This is a very nice compact history of the US Naval base in Bahrain at Manama and US acqiusitions of surrounding territory for those interested:
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/03/31/766128/iranian-retaliatory-strikes-cripple-us-fifth-fleet-bahrain-redraw-persian-gulf-power-map.
“Unilateral TACO” (still bad) more likely than Boots on the Ground (catastrophic)
Highly informative interview with commodity trade expert Rory Johnston:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZ-R1pzydXk
It’s always worth checking in on what the 38% are being told and are believing. Trump is on the cusp of an historic achievement with the help of our Israeli allies.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/morning-glory-president-trump-cusp-historic-achievement
If you have a chance to talk to any of the 38%, they believe this and much more. It’s a reality check for me, I know it’s not real but it’s good to question my assumptions and just shut up and listen to the bubble.
“To get there he must ‘finish the job” says Hugh Hewitt, graduate of Harvard College and the University of Michigan Law School, a Professor of Law at Chapman University’s Fowler School of Law since 1996 where he teaches Constitutional Law. These are elite true believers. I’d be embarrassed to put that teaching job on my resume, but that’s who they are.
How many divisions does Hewitt have? Asking for those Iranian negotiators in the room with me.
China and Pakistan present new Iran deal: Ceasefire for opening Hormuz
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/31/china-pakistan-iran-peace-deal-strait-ceasefire
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Cbob7N1LJM
Krystal and Saagar are really thinking hard and coming to grips with the implications of the Ramadan war. They’re coming to the realization that Iran has won and imagining what that world will look like.
They’re indy media, but aren’t foreign policy experts and sometimes slip into conventional DC-brained ways of thinking.
But, here, they’re starting to get caught up with a lot of the experts we’ve been following with the NC community.
Papa Bush on the way to save the day!
[TASS] US sends third aircraft carrier strike group to Middle East — WSJ
The US is sending the USS George H. W. Bush aircraft carrier to the Middle East…the aircraft carrier departed from the Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia on Tuesday and will join the strike group already deployed in the region: the USS Abraham Lincoln…
Hello President Trump,
I am writing to request your assistance on the urgent matter of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. I am fully empowered to speak and take actions on behalf of the Iranian government, as evidenced by the 20 Pakistani-flagged tankers that I caused to be given permission to transit the Strait as a personal gift to you, Mr. President.
I can confirm that I am in control of the government account containing over 10 billion in oil revenue belonging to the Iranian regime, and I am prepared to transfer this to a personal account of your choice once the Strait deal is concluded, with 80% going to you and 20% to me. To cover the expenses of this operation I will require an operating fund of $100 million, to be transferred to an account with the following details, after which your share of the 10 billion will shortly be made available to you.
I am very impressed by your power and masculinity and the forceful manner in which you threaten to bomb power plants and infrastructure. Although we must of course take care to keep our relationship professional, I am looking forward to getting to know you better during our dealings. I have attached a 100% genuine photograph of myself. I apologise for the lack of clothing as most of my garments were in the laundry at the time.
That was pretty good.
Lol! Well done!
He has people he’s working with, they’re the best people! But they go to a different school district, you wouldn’t know them.
This is brilliant.
Israeli army says situation ‘unbearable’ amid troop shortage, calls for conscription law
The best I can find is there are three basic training sessions during the year. I would imagine the shortage is the period that starts in December because they might not be getting in specialized training. The Haredim language is probably an excuse to recall people to service for overstressed positions too.
Ex-Trump adviser Bannon calls for Netanyahu’s son to be deported from Miami, sent to Iran war
Hey, Steve, shouldn’t Baron be forced to go as well. Maybe a couple of your kids, I realize they are all girls, but I believe everyone who supports this and continued American military misadventures to have real skin in the game.
Also for the record I don’t think Trump would care about anything except a possible assault on his sense of invincibility, but Melania would.
Russian Oil Flows Crumble After Strategic Hits on Key Export Terminals
https://united24media.com/latest-news/russian-oil-flows-crumble-after-strategic-hits-on-key-export-terminals-17470
US warns Americans in Saudi Arabia to shelter in place after threats
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-warns-americans-saudi-arabia-shelter-place-after-threats-2026-03-31/
Carney condemns Israel’s ‘illegal invasion’ of Lebanon as operation expands
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-israel-lebanon-9.7148800
US says Iran war at decisive moment, Tehran threatens US businesses in region
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/giant-oil-tanker-off-dubai-hit-by-iranian-strike-trump-threatens-obliterate-iran-2026-03-31/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook
why such a slow news day today?
The quiet before the storm?
A brief note on UNITED24 Media (from their About Us section):
“At UNITED24 Media, we are committed to providing our audience with honest, accurate, and fair coverage of Ukraine and its impact on global affairs.”
How much do you wanna bet that the “crumbling” in Russian oil export is pretty narrowly targeted to certain regions of the world…?
Trump Targets More Children With Strike on Iranian Orphanage
https://newrepublic.com/post/208395/donald-trump-targets-children-strike-iran-orphanage
Trump says U.S. will leave Iran in ‘two or three weeks’
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/31/trump-iran-war.html?taid=69cc478d9654f60001303dbb&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_content=main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
Trump Is Trying to Override Our Voting System
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/31/opinion/midterm-elections-trump-interference.html
Trump signs sweeping order attacking mail-in voting
https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/trump-signs-sweeping-order-attacking-mail-in-voting/
How can US “leave” Iran when we aren’t even actually there? ;p
Not sure about sourcing, supposedly the Chechens are joining the Jihad if America stages a ground invasion.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/chechen-forces-ready-support-iran-us-ground-invasion-middle-east-pro-russian-moscow-ramzan-kadyrov-2889574-2026-03-31
It was originally posted by Presstv so might be true. Then again Ramzan Kadyrov loves to troll. He did previously offer his services as a peacekeeping force in Gaza. Perhaps the Chechens will joining as a special forces unit. Akhmat Sila!
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/03/31/766102/chechen-units-ready-iran-deployment-event-us-invasion-reports
Supreme leader Khamenei in Iran but avoiding public appearances, Russian envoy says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/supreme-leader-khamenei-iran-avoiding-public-appearances-russian-envoy-says-2026-03-31/
MAGA Furious as Trump Restores Planned Parenthood Funding
https://newrepublic.com/post/208449/maga-furious-trump-restores-planned-parenthood-funding
Is Trump planning a ground invasion of Iran on Good Friday?
https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/trump-easter-invasion-iran-0rfqzdsnd
That Times article makes a good point that an Easter Friday invasion would give a longer period of markets being closed while it happens.
Trump’s Exasperation Over Iran Grows, Signaling Hastened Exit
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-31/trump-s-exasperation-over-iran-grows-signaling-hastened-exit
Trump Secretly Admits Humiliating Defeat on Major War Aim
https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-secretly-admits-humiliating-defeat-on-major-war-aim/
Donald Trump To Give Primetime Address On War In Iran on Wednesday, 9pm ET
https://deadline.com/2026/03/trump-iran-war-primetime-address-1236770443/
Malaysia says its tankers will be exempt from Iran’s Hormuz toll
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-31/malaysia-says-its-tankers-will-be-exempt-from-iran-s-hormuz-toll
He’s gonna pump the market in a live address; I can’t wait. We’ve already won, we’re there for two or three more weeks, we don’t care if the strait is open, or we do. We’re gonna bomb everything, or not. What a clown.
The Russians are coming?
Larry Wilkerson claims rumors that the Russians shipped S-500 systems in quantity to Iran, along with Russian operators. Can detect F35 at 600 miles off.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQCTCUR9WHs
It seems we are in a lull of sorts, news-wise.
Questions that are bouncing round my head:
Trump’s posts about Europe: genuine sign he will pull out soon OR attempt to get Europe involved as he knows he can’t pull out?
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Hearing a lot of people say the taco is real, but what about all the family investments in the Gulf? What about Kushner’s Gaza Riviera plan?
I can see Trump leaving the whole world screwed, but would he abandon his investments? Or more correctly, how much would they change his calculus?
If Iran won’t stop shooting, can Trump leave?
And that leaves aside what ever f***ery the Israelis will pull to keep the US there. And Schroedinger’s Kompromat.
And the neocons/Zionist press pressure in the US.
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Nugget from the excellent Wilkerson/Stas conversation: Wilkerson says Delta Force boys have told Trump they can successfully do the uranium retrieval raid. It would be so tempting as 1 a flashy op and 2 would genuinely allow Trump to declare victory.
—-
The first 48 hour ultimatum had everyone talking. This ten day ultimatum seems like it was just dismissed and ignored by all commentators.
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And what would a TACO actually look like? Just stopping firing stuff at Iran? What about Iraq? What about all the US bases in the region?
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Can Trump TACO without a ceasefire?
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And what about Lebanon?
Long time lurker; first time commenter.
Honestly, a little concerned that Don’s address to the nation might preface dropping nukes or making threats to nuke Iran (something like the Potsdam Declaration “prompt and utter destruction” blah blah). I just see no other way for the USA and Israel to claim a lasting victory — Iran holds all the leverage in the non-nuclear realm; the US/Israel strategic situation is a shambles. Thus, desperation and Don’s overweening ego might prompt him to go nuclear thinking that wipping some part of Iran from the map might push them to back down.
Hoping to be hilariously incorrect, but also wondering wtf else Don would want to do a whole of nation address.
Albo is doing some similar address to all Australians right now it might prrovide some tips.
Another Starlink satellite has inexplicably exploded
https://www.theverge.com/science/903906/another-starlink-satellite-has-inexplicably-exploded
Inexplicably? Oh, my, how could that have happened?
Rocket
358 359360?Articles linked sans paywall: Trump’s Exasperation Over Iran Grows, Signaling Hastened Exit
Trump Secretly Admits Humiliating Defeat on Major War Aim
Donald Trump To Give Primetime Address On War In Iran
Malaysia Says Its Tankers Will Be Exempt from Iran’s Hormuz Toll
Trump says Iran uranium stockpile deeply buried, Hegseth emphasizes US will ‘negotiate with bombs’
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-891820
Iran’s attacks on aluminum producers are sending ‘shockwaves’ through the metals market
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/03/30/iran-attacks-aluminum-producers-shockwaves-market-metals.html
Trump Touts “Hand-Carved” Columns on Ballroom as War Costs US 10k Jobs a Month
https://truthout.org/articles/trump-touts-hand-carved-columns-on-ballroom-as-war-costs-us-10k-jobs-a-month/
EXCLUSIVE
U.A.E. Wants to Force Hormuz Open and Is Willing to Join the Fight
https://www.wsj.com/
“The war is going wonderfully, we’ve almost completely won! If we don’t win soon though, you will see destruction like the world has never seen! The talks are also going extremely well. They’ve given us almost everything we wanted! If they don’t give us everything, we will take all of their oil, probably, I don’t know, but it is my favorite thing to to. Hey, you’re looking very nice today! Your boyfriend is a very luck man! Anyway, the war will be all wrapped up in about two weeks, or maybe tonight, probably tonight. We’ll have to see how it goes. By the way, I’m going to destroy all of their desalination if they don’t continue with negotiations and give us everything! Did you know that my new ballroom is actually the greatest war room the world has ever seen, and probably the greatest that will ever be? I don’t really care about the straight of Hormuz, never did! This new regime we’re talking to, you know, the replacement for the replacement regime?….they’re great! I think we can jointly run things over there! By the way, we have all of their nuclear material, just picked it up this morning! We don’t really need to continue with this war now that we have it….most likely, but we’re going to have to take out all of their power stations first, maybe. I just have to say that you’re looking really attractive today! Than you for your attention to this matter! DJT”
In another indication that time is very short to avoid lasting damage to oil production, Bloomberg updated statistics related to the risk of full shut-ins of oil wells in the Persian Gulf due to a shortage of empty tankers.
“Full shut-ins can have long-term impact on production as they can take weeks to return to full output. In the worst-case scenario, there may be permanent capacity loss, the shipbroker said in its March 31 note.
Currently, only 120 of the 332 tankers in the gulf are available for storage. Among very-large crude carriers that can carry up to 2 million barrels, only six are empty versus 70 laden ones.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2026-03-31/iran-war-updates-trump-markets-optimism?cursorId=69CCAB5949C8002F