[This Iran war post is yet again launching before complete. I expect to be done by 8:00 AM EDT so early arrivals, please refresh this page and reskim then]
It is difficult to adequately describe the depth of denialism, not just among the addled, religiously possessed, diehard jingoistic and otherwise self-blinded decision-makers among the belligerents, but also interested parties with the power to check them, starting with investors and the Gulf States. They seem unable to process what is happening right before their eyes.
As we have discussed before, the influential are also so deeply accustomed to living in the symbol world of spreadsheets, PowerPoint, messaging and financial market that even those who recognize that there is no prospect for the end of the war in sight, which is a best case scenario, that almost to a person they underestimate what comes next, as in pervasive real world shortages. A continuing large reduction inn petroleum and gas and related products like urea, sulphur, plastics, are not just crises in and further catastrophic knock-ons, such as high food costs (and scarcity due to distribution issues) and shortages of medications that depend on on petrochemical inputs and/or cold chain transportation.1 At best, they seem unconsciously to rely on the faith that their money and their connections will spare them.
We’ll turn first to the kinetic conflict, which Trump has linked to his market-and-public manipulating negotiation fakery. He pretends that the war will end if Iran capitulates negotiates, which is simply not going to happen. Yet it is not just loyal mouthpieces like Fox that are uncritically repeating his barker’s patter. Pervasively, mainstream outlets are also taking up Trump’s messaging with far too little in the way of sanity checks. This is a marked contrast with his first term, when due to impeachments and Russiagate, his legitimacy was sufficiently in doubt that much of the media delighted in calling out his howlers. So much for journalistic integrity.
Why, for instance, does it take a not-widely followed independent site like indi.ca to call out the irretrievably decrepit state of US weaponry? Its critique goes beyond even the solid and very well documented ones by Brian Berletic, of how the US military is built for profit, not purpose, which is how we can spend such eye-watering amounts and yet have a country we like to depict as too economically second-tier (despite being a superpower) of being well ahead of the US in many critical weapons categories, from air defense to signal jamming to hypersonic missiles to drones, as well as having adapted to and extensively battle-tested how to wage war in the new world of ISR?
Consider the key points from America’s Military Is Never Coming Back From This:
‘America’ is a good military like Cristiano Ronaldo is a good footballer. They was, but their careers are over in Saudi Arabia. And whereas Ronaldo is still in good shape (but a bad person), America is in terrible shape (and bad people). Vital links in their kill chain (refuelers and control planes) are decades old and being put out of their misery by Iran…
People really do not understand how old and crustified the US military is. This is not your grandfather’s US Army, or more precisely it is, without many updates since. They’re still relying on primordial technology like the E-3 and KC-135 that have no modern replacements. Every new weapon these corruption engineers have come up with (like littoral combat ships or the F-35) have either failed or flailed in the field.
People talk about how Iran is a ‘second-tier military’ but they ain’t Iraq and this ain’t Desert Storm. This is Desert Shitstorm and Iran is not just a peer military to ‘America’s’, they are demonstrably superior. Just look at the scoreboard, which isn’t school massacres but military targets. Behold, then, ‘American’ airframes burning in the sun while Iran’s rockets are safe underground. The White Empire stood astride the Middle East like Colossus, but now they lie there in a wreck, colossal morons.
What I want you to understand is that the US military is never coming back from this. There are no modern replacements for these refuelers and control systems. The NGAS is a render and the E-7 Wedgetail was cancelled. They simply don’t make ‘em like they used to anymore. As the meme template goes, “My father is a builder. We were in [Prince Sultan Air Base] I asked him what it would cost to build [an E-3 Sentry] today. I will never forget his answer… ‘We can’t, we don’t know how to do it.’”
Taking these planes to a war of choice was like taking Grandpa’s ‘65 Mustang to a demolition derby and getting your nose out of joint. The White press keeps saying these planes are worth millions or billions which is missing the point. They cannot make these planes anymore, these assets are effectively priceless.…
People really do not appreciate how depreciated the US military is. To rust and dust and gone bust. Some of their vaunted aircraft carriers are supposed to be retired already, they just keep extending their retirement dates because they have no replacements. This moves stuff around on paper, but doesn’t make these lumbering beasts any more limber.
Please take a detour to read the rest of this wonderfully written and important article in full.
The Financial Times’s lead item was its interview with the American mad kingm. From Donald Trump says US could ‘take the oil in Iran’:
Donald Trump has said he wants to “take the oil in Iran” and could seize the export hub of Kharg Island, as the US sends thousands of troops to the Middle East.
The US president told the FT in an interview on Sunday that his “preference would be to take the oil”, comparing the potential move to Venezuela, where the US intends to control the oil industry “indefinitely” following its capture of strongman leader Nicolás Maduro in January….
Trump said: “To be honest with you, my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people.”
Such a move would involve seizing Kharg Island, through which most of Iran’s oil is exported.
Trump has been beefing up US forces in the region, with the Pentagon ordering the deployment of 10,000 troops trained to seize and hold land. About 3,500 troops arrived in the region on Friday, including roughly 2,200 marines. Another 2,200 marines are en route, while thousands of troops from the 82nd Airborne Division have also been ordered to the region.
But an assault on the export hub would be risky, raising the chances of more US casualties and extending the cost and duration of the war.
“Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options,” Trump told the FT. “It would also mean we had to be there [in Kharg Island] for a while.”
Asked about the state of Iranian defence on Kharg Island he said: “I don’t think they have any defence. We could take it very easily.”
The convention for interviews of Super Important People is not to savage them in the piece proper, and the pink paper fell in line, with only very tame interjections, such as oil prices being high. My beef is that pretty much all of the rest of the media has been treating these remarks with respect, as opposed to yet more evidence that Trump needs to be escorted from office in a straitjacket.
Now admittedly there are bizarre pretend meetings going on that are inaccurately depicted as negotiations or sometimes more accurately, diplomacy, among Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkiye. Per an update from Aljazeera:
Pakistan says it is ready to host “meaningful” talks to end the United States-Israeli war on Iran after diplomats from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkiye gathered in Islamabad in a bid to de-escalate the conflict.
The two-day talks in the Pakistani capital began on Sunday and are being led by Pakistani Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar, who said after the meeting that they had covered possible ways to bring an early and permanent end to the war in the region as well as potential US-Iran talks in Islamabad.
Anyone who has been paying attention will quickly recognize this exercise as absurd, a Western Asia version of Emmanuel Macron acting as if he can help end the war in Ukraine. First, Iran has repeatedly said no way no how is it negotiating. Any meaningful talks, even if indirect, have to be with the belligerents. They have demonstrated themselves to be utterly untrustworthy so there is no point in talking. Iran knows it has to prevail militarily and break their will or alternatively, effect regime change, since this war was already unpopular in the US and will rapidly become more so as citizens don’t just suffer higher costs but business failures, job losses, and inability to get key medications.2 Unfortunately, none of these bad outcomes are set to kick in fast enough to pressure this Administration soon enough to limit the carnage.
A second reason these countries talking among themselves is silly is because Saudi Arabia is a belligerent. It is not only supporting the US but Western media reports say it along with the other Gulf States are looking at more overt and substantial backing of the US. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia also have entered into a mutual defense and security pact, so Pakistan can hardly be seen as independent. Turkiye hosts a massive and essential US air base at Incirlik. So who are we kidding? This looks like a show organized to assist Trump, one imagines at a minimum to con inattentive traders and investors that an end to the war might be in sight so as to keep them from bidding oil prices up to where they ought to be.
To return to reality, Larry Johnson’s Donald Trump’s Imaginary Iranian Friends, provides an update on how the US and Israel keep ignoring Iranian warning and put their hand on the escalatory hot stove, producing predictable damage:
Despite Trump’s insistence that Iran is eager to negotiate, he is lying…
Trump’s claim that Iran is running out of missiles also is not true. As I am writing this, Iran has launched three waves of launches to the Negev in under an hour.
In response to Donald Trump’s various threats, a spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya HQ recently said:
➡The U.S. president has threatened that if Iran doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. forces will target Iranian power plants.
➡Tehran insists the Strait is only restricted to hostile traffic and remains under Iran’s control; safe passage continues under strict rules.
➡If the U.S. strikes Iranian power plants, Iran will:
- Fully close the Strait of Hormuz until damaged facilities are rebuilt.
- Target all Israeli energy, ICT, and infrastructure assets.
- Destroy regional companies with U.S. shareholders.
- Target power plants in countries hosting U.S. bases.
➡Iran says it is ready for a major campaign to eliminate all U.S. economic interests in West Asia.
➡While Tehran did not start this conflict, any attack on Iranian infrastructure will trigger relentless retaliation against U.S. and allied energy, oil, and industrial targets in the region.
The US and Israel ignored Iran’s warning and attacked… and, as promised, Iran responded forcefully….Satellite data from NASA has reportedly detected an active fire at the Doha West Power and Water Desalination Station, the country’s largest combined power and water plant…..
The facility produces 2,400MW of power and around 110 million gallons of water per day, making up about 38.5% of Kuwait’s desalination output. With around 90% of Kuwait’s drinking water coming from desalination, this damage will quickly put pressure on the country’s water supply.
New satellite images also show damage following Iranian missile strikes on a US airbase in Sheikh Isa, Bahrain:
— US Army Air Base Radar Maintenance Shed Hit
— Destroying the spy plane hangars.
— Destruction of the drone hangar.
— Destruction of the equipment depot….
According to Haaretz, the success rate of Iranian missiles in Israel has reached 80%, and the missiles are not being intercepted.
Iran is not alone. Hezbollah also is fully engaged in fighting Israel. Hezbollah announced 70 operations on 29 March against Israeli forces, sites, settlements, and military infrastructure.
Hindustan Times suggests the latest ferocious warnings from Iran might have put Trump on the back foot, at least for now:
The entire video is worth a watch. It includes Trump claiming he achieved regime change, as well as a bizarre topic change to the state of ballroom develoment at 5:45. In Neuro Linguistic Programming, this is called a pattern interrupt (“Oh look at that bird!”) but here is just deranged. Trump finally does try to connect the dots by claiming he is ahead of schedule on both projects. And at 12:10, Trump says Iran agreed to most of the 15 points in the surrender document.
However, to counter the Hindustan Times headline claim, the press has provided a lot of coverage to how the US has moved forces and assets to the theater, with a repeatedly announced threat to launch a raid or ground operations. How could the US possibly climb down from that?3
A bit earlier, Professor Marandi and Glenn Diesen discussed where further escalation might go:
Because Marandi and Diesen cover some familiar ground, it’s easy to miss some important new observations from Marandi, such as:
So any US attack on the mainland or on the islands isn’t is going to lead to greater disaster because you’ll have further destruction, much greater destruction.
And that means that the oil crisis and the energy crisis and the uh petrochemical crisis and the fertilizer crisis will be permanent.
And later, on other escalation options if the US tries to invade:
We are still not very much uh up the escalation ladder. Yemen has joined but its targets are so far limited. Iraq has been involved for weeks now, but again, it can go much further. There’s talk that, for example, the Iraqis may take Kuwait. They could enter the Arabian Peninsula. Excuse me. Yemen, too, could enter Saudi Arabia and of course close the Red Sea for Saudi oil facilities.
And more are set to join the fray:
If you give us the order, millions of Pashtuns from the tribes are ready to wage jihad together with Iran against Israel. We will provide ourselves with weapons and food ourselves.”
Leaders of the Pakistani Pashtun tribes met with the Iranian ambassador and made him an offer. pic.twitter.com/JY0mYsroL4
— Sprinter Press (@SprinterPress) March 29, 2026
Investors outside Asia are starting to sober up a little bit. From the BBC in Oil rises above $115 and Asia shares slide as Iran war enters fifth week:
Global oil prices jumped and stocks fell sharply on Monday in Asia after the US-Israel war with Iran entered its fifth week.
The price of Brent crude rose by more than 3% to above $115 (£86.77) a barrel, while US-traded oil climbed to $101.62 after gaining almost 2%. It puts Brent on track for its biggest monthly gain on record.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 2.8%, while the Kospi in South Korea closed almost 3% lower.
Sadly the BBC then dignifies the dopey Trump talk to the pink paper by quoting him, and a bit after that, adds:
Lars Jensen, a shipping expert and former director at Maersk, warned that, even if the Strait of Hormuz “magically were to open tomorrow”, there were still further price rises to come.
“We need to keep in mind that a lot of the oil that was loaded in the Persian gulf prior to this crisis is only now arriving in refineries,” he told the BBC.
Overall, Jensen said the impact of the US-Israeli war on Iran could be “substantially larger” than the oil crisis of the 1970s, which sparked economic chaos.
And Jensen, who now runs the shipping consultancy Vespucci Maritime, also warned of the impact of the conflict on food prices.
And some sobriety from Bloomberg. Its landing page as of 7:00 AM EDT:
And from one of the top articles The Strait of Hormuz Oil Shock Is Now Heading West:
Fuel crunches hitting Asia will soon start spreading west, they said. Europe is likely to face surging prices to secure cargoes and is at risk of diesel shortages in the coming weeks.
If the strait stays closed, the world will have to significantly reduce its oil and gas consumption — but not before prices spike to a level that forces consumers and businesses to fly, drive and spend much less. Already, demand has begun to drop, and some countries in Asia are hoarding and rationing fuel. US government officials and Wall Street analysts are starting to consider the prospect that oil prices might surge to an unprecedented $200 a barrel….
A simple back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests the closure of the strait is reducing global oil flows by some 11 million barrels a day, after accounting for the interventions so far aimed at offsetting the loss. When compared with pre-war demand levels, that leaves a roughly 9 million-barrel shortfall — a yawning gap that is more than the oil consumption of the UK, France, Germany, Spain and Italy combined. Lower demand, particularly in Asia, is already helping to force a closing of that gap. (The market also entered the war in a surplus.)
But for supply this may be as good as it gets. A massive emergency stockpile release and US waivers on Russian and Iranian oil sanctions have bought some time, but they are finite interventions. Once they’re exhausted, it’s not clear what further tools President Donald Trump has to keep global oil prices from surging in the near term – other than fully reopening the strait. ….
The situation is even more extreme in liquefied natural gas. The Strait of Hormuz typically accounts for about a fifth of global supply, with the final cargoes on the way from the Middle East now about to arrive at their destinations. Unlike in oil, there are no alternative routes to get the gas to market and very few strategic stockpiles to cushion the shortfall.
The US is the world’s biggest LNG exporter, and its domestic gas market is relatively insulated from the war due to its massive production.
But it’s not just fuel: petroleum is used to make plastics, which are used in just about everything….
Looking more broadly, with oil around $110 a barrel, Bloomberg Economics SHOK model projects a marked but manageable boost to prices and blow to growth. In the euro area, those numbers are about 1 percentage point on annual inflation and 0.6% off GDP.
But if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed too far into the second quarter, the risk is that oil prices move sharply higher. At $170 a barrel, the impact on inflation and growth roughly doubles — a stagflationary shock that could shift everything from the path ahead for central banks to the outcome of the US midterm elections.
How high will prices need to go to crush demand?
Recall that we took issue with an earlier Bloomberg story that depicted oil at $108 as a worst-case Iran war scenario.
Towards the end, it notes:
Now, some in the industry are warning that Europe is heading toward scarcity pricing — particularly highlighting diesel, the lifeblood of the global economy. Several traders and analysts said that the region faces supply shortages within the coming weeks if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, with similar pressures also expected in Latin America.
If the strait remains closed for a second month, traders and analysts say they expect global energy markets will quickly evolve into a fight for supplies, driving up prices and benefiting buyers and countries that are able to outbid others.
While this article is a step in the right direction, we only get a tiny bleat in its penultimate paragraph signaling that on opening of the Strait of Hormuz does not translate into a quick rebound:
Even when the strait opens, flows will take months to return to normal — even for those producers that haven’t sustained damage in the war.
As we and other have warned, it will take a long time to get back to a semblance of normal, even assuming no further damage to energy infrastructure and no cascading business failures that further damage supply chains.
Due to this post already being long, we’ll close with a couple of important videos. Janta Ka is always energetic and informative:
Hindustan Times interviewed a clearly exasperated Jeffrey Sachs. He gets into ground that we have been covering for years, as in not just Trump’s megalomania in combination with growing signs of cognitive impairment, but also the incompetence of leadership across most of the Western world.
If nothing else, be sure to watch at 40:50, where the interviewer brings up that Pakistan government owns Roosevelt Hotel, Witkoff announced US made a deal to jointly renovate, and suddenly Pakistan “gets seat at the high table”.
We’ll stop here. See you tomorrow!
____
1 Just for starters: what happens when styrofoam becomes scarce and costly? Or there aren’t enough plastic bags for garbage bins? You think New York City has a rat problem now, imagine that getting worse and vermin infestations becoming a new normal.
2 What happens if there are insulin shortages? Its typical 1-2 year expiration date after manufacture depends on cold storage. From Healthbeat:
Right now the biggest risk is cold-chain medicines, which he writes are “vaccines, insulin, biologics, and cancer therapies” with “short shelf lives” that have to move quickly and stay within a tight temperature range; largely “between 2°C and 8°C,” 35-46°F.
Most cold-chain medicines move by air cargo, [top health care supply chain expert Prashant] Yadav told me, and airlines cannot simply add new capacity overnight if those routes stay disrupted. Even over the medium term, “I don’t think European airlines, or the two major African ones that have stepped in, will enhance their cargo carrying capacity by buying new planes just because this may continue for a few more months,” he said.
When shipments of these drugs are held up, those medicines can spoil. And even when they don’t, delays multiply. As the article notes, cargo carriers “need a week and a half to catch up for every week that air shipments are suspended.”
An underlying story at ThinkGlobalHealth stresses that advanced economies have significant inventories.
3 Maybe it stages a pretend-raid someplace with credible-looking terrain, load a bunch of canisters on helicopters, says it captured Iran’s enriched uranium and begs Iran to play along? Among the many problems is that Israel would surely know better…
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Blammo! This won’t help the price of oil –
Fire reported at an oil refinery in Israel after missile attack
This is a refinery, not production. Won’t affect prices unless Israel stoopidly retaliates and Iran then hits more Gulf production or key energy transit operations. Is that what you meant to indicate?
Point taken. I meant to note it since it apparently just happened, and if even Al Jazeera is admitting it, it’s likely accurate. Any damage to fossil fuel infrastructure probably isn’t going to make the price go down was the point of my admittedly flippant comment.
Another aspect to this which is just now getting attention is that bunker fuel, the oil for running ship engines, is a byproduct of oil refining, and just as oil deliveries from ships have been reduced, so have (and will) availability of bunker fuel for running ships. Apparently the average price for bunker fuel before this war started was under 500 dollars a ton. Now it is over 960 a ton. These cost changes will of course reflect supply shortages and place further upward pressures on shipping prices….
I dismiss the Kharg Island fantasies as complete nonsense, but though this is madness I think there is a method in it. Specifically “take the oil”. I think this hints at alternative internal Washington/Israeli planning.
Iran is now in control of the straight, putting the whole petrodollar system in mortal jeopardy. So to me the next logical step in the US plan will be to impose their own, secondary blockade: Stopping all “Iranian” oil coming out of the Gulf or (not actually) “seizing” it for themselves. In effect an extension of the existing policy of sanctioning/seizing Iranian and “shadow fleet” tankers, but now for every barrel coming out of the Gulf. It’s insane, but no more so that any other policy in this war.
A much softer version of the policy could be implemented through London insurace cabals and insisting that transactions in yuan or under Iranian terms be somehow “cleared” through sanctified ports and financial institutions before the oil can be allowed into countries under the SWIFT system.
The likes of China will simply ignore it, and the US will not dare interfere with their shipping. India will also likely hold out. But smaller SEA countries? Or the Europeans? The US could routinely begin boarding and ‘seizing’ oil tankers that have paid Iranian tolls, informally paying the owners a fee, then reauthorizing them post seizure to sell in dollars at a markup, in the EU, SEA, etc. The operation could be conducted in oceans far out of Iranian missile range. It will principally be an optics operation, meant to shore up the US’s battered image. It’s sole advantage would be to facilitate the return of actual oil flows out of the Gulf. It would then be in the Iranian’s court on how to respond, or the Israelis court in how to scuttle the operation.
If the US were to properly move to a total war mode against Iran, we would surely be seeing all Iranian linked oil tankers being sunk. So parlor games like this wouldn’t be so extreme by comparison.
The US is in no position to do that. Its aircraft carrier groups are >700 kilometers away from Iran out of fear of being hit
And did you miss that the US LIFTED sanctions on Iranian oil? Admittedly, the pretense was that it was for 30 days only and only for tankers already at sea. But the US is desperate to get as much Gulf supply as possible in the market, even if Iran’s, so as to limit oil price increases.
I’ve noticed the EU or UK/NATO keeps seizing (or blowing up) Russian tankers.
This seems counter to the logic of any oil on the market now helps buffer the shock from the closure of the straight. Perhaps things are not bad enough in Europe for the leaders there to realize what even Trump seems to understand?
The only theory explaining this I’ve found up to now without relying on assumption of absolute incompetence / stupidity etc. is this: the fortress America position proposed by Newbury (https://theuaob.substack.com/p/fortress-america-and-the-thermodynamic), underpined by his catabolic correction perspective.
(I found him thanks to a link left here in the comments, maybe around 2-3 months ago, I do not remember from who. Anyway, I do not understand fully his explaination, more specifically his “The ‘crack spread’ collapses” mechanism).
This requires that European decision makers act as agents of the empire to explain the blowing up of Russian O&G related items.
Possibly increasing the plausibility of this theory, one fact reported by Yves from a recent Diesen interview (Gibbs perhaps?): the Nixon admin refused Saudi offers leading to decreased oil prices during the 1973 crisis.
I don’t think Balan’s theory is so easily dismissed. I’ve floated the same idea myself.
There is no landing place for the marines that is defensible. Any landing is a suicide mission to the extent it isn’t a rout. So I don’t think the marines will be landed in Iran unless the plan is to sacrifice them as a pretext for nuclear escalation.
Assuming we aren’t at Armageddon yet and we’re discounting defensive actions (invading GCC countries or Israel or Jordan etc. to ensure alignment, quell revolt), I think the marines and special forces are ideally suit to boarding tankers. Iran’s navy has been destroyed except for coastal craft. It is *relatively* safe for the USN to hang around the Arabian Sea and interdict tankers. The US declares Iranian oil / paying Iran’s toll as trading with the enemy; the owner of the cargo will get paid in dollars (if they are lucky); the tanker is sailed (with some armed marines to a US-friendly port beyond Iran’s reach (Singapore? Algeciras if the Suez is open, Durban if not) and the oil is available for transshipment to friends of the USA.
I don’t know if the USA would dare to try this with China and its newly minted blue water navy but anybody else is fair game, e.g: BRICS traitors India etc…
You need to stop believing Trump, FFS. Iran’s navy has not been destroyed. They still have between 20 and 30 patrol vessels, 20 submarines, and more than 300 missile-equipped fast boats. And that does not count their very large number of surface and underwater drones. Professor Marandi and Alastair Crooke additionally say they have many stored speed boats they can readily deploy, I assume in the caves on the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf. So like the ballistic missile estimates, which proved to be way low, that is likely also be true of the missile-carrying fast boats.
Trita Parsi has come to the same conclusion that Chas Freeman did at the very get-go, that the one thing that they can take at acceptable risk are 3 islands that were part of the UAE taken by Iran during the days of the Shah. That would make the UAE happy. Israel backers in the US also pushing for that.
Those three island together have an area of two LAX, and they are about as flat, too. You put 3,000 marines on them and the Iranians don’t even have to particularly aim to make it a blood path.
Agreed but it is on the far side of the Strait and so not quite as easy….and I don’t know how many Iranians are there. They can presumably as least be sustained from the UAE, which was a big issue with the other sites.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio on “Good Morning America”:
Excerpt:
GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS, ABC NEWS: Let’s talk about the President’s comments overnight, talking about taking the oil on Kharg Island. How would he do this? Why would he do this? Won’t it take ground troops ?
SECRETARY RUBIO: Well, first of all, it’s important to remember the objectives of this operation from the very beginning. We were going to – we are destroying Iran’s navy. We are destroying their ability – their missile launchers by a significant percentage. We’re going to wipe out their defense industrial base, meaning their ability to make new missiles and new drones in the future, because it posed a great threat to the region. This Iran that you’re seeing now, this is Iran at its weakest point. Imagine them two years from now if they had thousands of more missiles to – thousands of more missile launchers and factories to make even more. That was an unacceptable risk, it needed to be addressed, and President Trump is addressing it.
Now, they are making threats about controlling the Hormuz Straits in perpetuity, creating a tolling system and the like. That’s not going to be allowed to happen. And the President has a number of options available to him, if he so chooses, to prevent that from happening.
Obviously I’m not going to discuss what those options are, and we’re not going to discuss military tactics. The Department of War would be in charge of those things. I’d refer you to them, but obviously they’re not going to discuss it with you either. But there is a way forward here to achieve our objectives. We are going to achieve our objectives in a matter of weeks, not months.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, let’s talk about taking the oil because the President laid out that objective last night. And taking the oil will take ground troops, won’t it?
SECRETARY RUBIO: Well, again, the Iranians are threatening that they are going to set up some permanent system in the Straits of Hormuz where they get to decide who goes through international waterways. That will never be allowed to happen.
By the way, the rest of the world should take note of that. They have more at stake there than we do. We get very little of our energy in this country coming through the Straits of Hormuz. The rest of the world gets a lot more.
That said, the President has several options at his disposal, and the Department of War is preparing optionality for the President for this and various other contingencies that might arise. That’s what always needs to happen in situations like this.
[emphasis added]
————————————————————————————————–
Full transcript and video link here:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2026/03/30/rubio_on_iran_war_we_are_going_to_achieve_our_objectives_in_a_matter_of_weeks_not_months.html
Note how Rubio twice avoids a direct response to the question of Kharg Island and ground troops, both times jumping to the topic of Iran’s threats to control of the strait of Hormuz in perpetuity etc.
And US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, echoing Rubio, told Fox News on Monday:
“Over time , the US is going to retake control of the straits, and there will be freedom of navigation, whether it is through US escorts or a multinational escort”
RT 07:06 GMT:
“Trump has told his aides that he is willing to end the US military operation against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, ” the Wall Street Journal has reported, citing administration officials.
Trump’s team has come to the conclusion that reopening the waterway would go beyond his four- to six-week timeline for the mission and should be addressed at a later stage, the sources said.
The president has decided to focus on degrading Iran’s missile capabilities and navy, before trying to pressure Tehran diplomatically to restore the movement of oil via the strait, they claimed.
Yeah, right, as if taking Kharg Island and disabling other Iranian oil production facilities will increase oil supply and make the price of oil go down!
It’s amazing that no one in the MSM dare question an obviously self destructive “strategy!” And it’s amazing that Trump may do it anyway.
Seizing Kharg always seemed stupid but after reading Trump’s remarks it’s gotten stupider. To me, it seems like seizing the island is Trump planning for the day after Iran capitulates and a pliant regime is installed. In that fantasy world, he wants direct control over export infrastructure and presumably who gets to load Iranian oil. But perhaps I’m being too unkind to occupants of the White House.
The morons in the US government apparently think that the oil gets to Kharg by itself. Should the US somehow occupy the island, the Iranians simply close the valves and shut off the pumps that control the pipeline. The level of operational ignorance by people who should know better is truly ridiculous.
Yes, this!
It would however force Iran to stop pumping, which in turn risks future production because the shut in may have hysteresis effects.
Or just open all the valves on Kharg Island before they leave, and take down all the “No Smoking” signs.
IMO, the bigger problem with taking Kharg Island is resupply. There’s an airstrip there, but the island is close enough to mainland Iran – and far enough from Kuwait – that they could just wait until any cargo planes head there and throw another missile at the runway. All resupply would have to be done by chopper or Osprey, flying across 70 miles of Gulf. Some would get through, but not all.
And of course, yes, beyond that, is that US troops would serve no strategic purpose there other than to make it impossible for Iran to use the island, and there are cheaper ways to do that (also noisier: boom!).
After the atack on Abadan refinery it is only a matter of time until Aramco units are shut down, this means the Gate of Tears will no longer matter much after the tanks are emptied.
The way Mr Trump was talking today he is going to try to bomb them into submission. Scuttlebutt today that Air National Guard is to put on notice the day after Easter Monday. This makes sense since pilots and airframes are at a frenetic pace and need rest, perhaps lift the tempo a bit as well. Will be interesting to see if any States resist federalisation in this cause. There are 100,000 personnel in the ANG.
I wonder if Iran have any of the jet powered Gerans from Russia and in their place I would be very wary of Pakistan. The only bright note is the US letting the oil into Cuba although it doesn’t change their fate under present circumstances.
There’s also timing with the Passover holiday and Remembrance Day to consider. Netanyahu is certifiable and has no qualms about staying in battle mode through the next month but there might be cracks in the Israeli public support if they’re in shelters for Pessah. Just a thought. Perhaps the Iranian propaganda slogan for the coming weeks should be “next year in Al Quds!”
Seems to me that Iran and Israel are in it until a very bitter end. Sorry we got roped in.
Rope a Dope?
Roped in? The US is and has been involved in Israel’s criminal acts for just about forever. The US has wanted Iran gone for decades. Israel is our excuse.
Israeli society is nuts too. Netanyahu is fine with his doofus kid not even playing dress up soldier, so the society has no concept this is a war that will last. I doubt the IDF will collapse next week, but when people start to notice those 19 year old conscripts are looking really squirrelly, it will be collapse time. People get weird around day 60.
What will emergency services do?
Did the US “let” the oil into Cuba, or did it stand down in a possible confrontation with Russia over the matter? Have been wondering.
They arrived.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/30/cuba-crisis-trump-fuel-oil-bloackade-energy-russia-tanker-tariffs.html
I hope the Minnesota Air NG gets the first call, because Trump clearly hates MN ehich my put MN atop the list, and the State is still waiting for the Feds to fulfill their obligations and promises to MN resulting from the ICE occupation. It’s enough for Walz to refuse if he has any balls.
Thank you, Yves, for a great report on the state of play.
Some war-related anecdata from Tokyo…
On Saturday, I attended two different street protests. Both were unexpected and remarkable, for reasons I will try to explain.
(1) The first demo was “Geeks Against War” in front of the National Diet building. Several thousand people and many police and riot busses in attendance.
Many posts on X under the hashtag #オタクによる反戦デモ, e.g.:
Amongst the speakers, manga artist Inoue Junichi:
(2) The second demo was in Shinjuku — “Drop Bass Not Bombs” — in a square in front of one of the largest train stations in Tokyo (aside: note on “Bass Drop”). As of now, it’s still happening, and has grown into a kind of “protest rave”, e.g.:
https://x.com/eureka_kamakura/status/2038426884166635795
https://x.com/mrjeffu/status/2038205685360668847
Many people at these events showing off hand-made protest artifacts, e.g., “Please quit, all the cabinet members“, “I Stand with Iran” signs, many people with penlights (a.k.a. K-Pop light sticks), people dancing in strange costumes, etc. Lots of eccentric creativity on display at these events.
Ordinarily, we might imagine the demographic of geek [otaku] and geek-adjacent young people in Japan to be among the most introverted and detached from reality and politics.
But lo and behold thousands of them have appeared on the streets of Tokyo, with signs, banners, costumes, and humorous, fan-made anti-war accessories — all to protest the war against Iran. Many participants carried signs against Takaichi, against Trump, and against Israel.
(3) One of the organizers of the Shinjuku South West Plaza event is Nabekura Masayuki, a professional illustrator and Communist who is out there every night with placards against war and racism.
Nabekura conducts a “Roadside Philosophy Reading Group” that meets out on the street at Shinjuku South-West plaza, every Friday night. The agenda is to read and discuss canonical texts on modern democracy (e.g., Maruyama Masao), but the motivation is closer to street politics and opposition to the right-wing leadership in Japan.
Nabekura summarizes it like this:
Again, I take all of this as rather positive, for the idea that otaku and otaku-adjacent young people in Japan don’t care about politics — that has been upended.
Thank you for that rundown – very encouraging!
re: introversion and public protest, it might be that this group of people is more open to alternatives to “not much to see here” main-stream narratives and so is better informed and more alarmed than is the general population.
This is great stuff and thank you for providing some of the translation (proud of myself for managing to read the hashtag independently at least). In fact it should be no surprise to anyone who knows a little of their otaku culture that gundam fans are wildly antiwar, besides.
I would imagine the perceived japanese-youth political disaffection has to do with the de facto one party system japan has run essentially since its instantiation as a “western liberal democracy” (or else), and in their system it’s rather more naked than our uniparty here in the imperial center where we still fantasize a distinction between the red tie and the blue tie. From my uninformed perch, it seems as though you’d have to be a bit of a political junkie to get your hackles up over “LDP candidate” and “LDP candidate (slightly more so)”. The emerging crisis is different though, and even prior to Iran kicking off hot-like Takaichi was making noises in the direction of various contested islands that might make young people (historically the unfortunate participants to warfighting) get out of bed.
Very interesting, thank you!
“Drop Bass Not Bombs” reminds me of this classic bit of skateboarding ephemera.
i kept thinking about the fish, until i followed the links.
(i havent been freshwater fishing in years…afraid to go to the llano by myself, due to bones/almost drowning last time…bass and perch are my favorite fish to eat.)
I’ve said it before here, philosophy is too important to leave it to the academics.
Done a bit ahead of schedule. Please refresh your browsers if you arrived before the time of this comment and re-skim the post.
Thank you again for the ongoing coverage. Diesel was $5.70 – $5.90 a gallon on the rt 22 corridor in upstate NY yesterday.
Here at WV’s DC-facing edge of Appalachia, diesel on the cheap stations along the main thoroughfare was hovering around $5.70 yesterday.
Diesel is $6.99/g at the station near my home in Seattle.
Thank You!
Thank you for this, and all that you do.
Thanks much, Yves.
I tried again to post some deets on large anti-war street protests happening in Japan, but for the second time now it got deleted immediately. 🤷
Please do not post Japanese tweets. Your comment wound up in our Spam folder, which is third party software. We get THOUSANDS of spam messages a day and cannot root through it to hoist the tiny % of valid comments.
On top of THAT, you are training Akismet to see you as a spammer. That not only risks all of your comments being deemed as spam by Akismet here but also on any other site that uses Akismet.
Understood. Thanks!
Yves: yet more evidence that Trump needs to be escorted from office in a straitjacket.
Trump will be put in a Hormuz straitjacket
A tweet from an expert on Crude Oil:
guy in the future:
“So, how serious is this, on a scale of just noise to that time the Strait of Hormuz got closed?”
https://xcancel.com/Rory_Johnston/status/2038003845561737511
From El Pais:
“Spain closes airspace to aircraft involved in Iran war, but US bases are being used in other ways”
https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-03-30/spain-closes-airspace-to-aircraft-involved-in-iran-war-but-us-bases-are-being-used-in-other-ways.html
I notice that Trump has shut up about closing those Spanish bases. The Pentagon probably pulled him aside and told him that the US needs those bases more that the Spanish needs the US.
Georg Ots – what an excellent article!
In particular, it says something in an aside that may be very important (my emphasis):
“In some cases where the bombers have not flown over France—either because Paris has not authorized it due to the payload or for operational reasons—they have had to circle the Iberian Peninsula to enter through the Strait of Gibraltar […]”
What payload could a bomber be carrying that France would refuse it transit? Not conventional explosives! Does this mean that the US has been moving tactical nuclear missiles? Or is France unexpectedly squeamish and objects to white phosphorus / anti-personnel cluster munitions / thermobaric weapons?
Given some of the big, bright, stratospheric mushroom cloud explosions seen in Iran, my money is on the former….
Also, who knew Spain maintains “a Patriot unit at Incirlik air base in Turkey”? Because Spain has so many interests in SE Turkey, LOL….
I would not be surprised to see a nuclear test in the next few weeks. Khameini’s death removed the fatwa on nuclear weapons and there are signals coming out of Iran about withdrawal from the NPT.
I don’t think those signals are accidental, Iran has shown that it controls the messaging by its officials tightly. Also, if the development started soon after Khameini’s death, we are reaching a point where Iran would be 2-3 weeks out from having a nuke.
No it did not remove the fatwa. I hate to come down on you but do not Make Shit Up. It is a burden on me to clean up misinformation when I have no time to begin with.
It is in place until a new one is issued.
And a simple gun type warhead does not require testing.
And Iran can destroy the entire Middle East with its conventional weapons and is culturally opposed to WMD. Too many died or were injured by chemical weapons in the Iraq-Iran war.
This article dwells a little into the Shia jurisprudence regarding the fatwa against nuclear weapons and how it may not be in effect anymore since the jurist who proclaimed it has died. Might be of some general interest to folks here since I don’t think any of us are Shia scholars.
https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/opinion/the-atomic-fatwa-irans-post-khamenei-nuclear-paradox
Iran doesn’t have to perform a test in order to have a working nuke like the Hiroshima bomb.
Ted Postol explains why here (cued to the exact time): https://youtu.be/JtUobr7xGz4?si=Lb06MFvOmJy7pDGv&t=590
It’s from a newer talk from today with Glenn Diesen and Postol.
Add this to the list of things that Trump says will be easy like sending the Ukraine war or fixing healthcare.
That may be correct. It would also apply to anyone trying to hold that island.
“We did this not because it is easy, but because we thought it would be easy!”
President Winne Biggley (h/t Stan Krapivinik)
We’ll have a repeat of the Zmeyi Island in the Black Sea
Let’s all remember that Kharg island has no strategic importance or natural resources. It’s just a tanker loading point supplied by pipelines from the mainland. Once you turn off the pipelines at the mainland side, Kharg Island is just a small piece of real estate sitting in the Gulf.
In the old days (WWI?) it might have been used as some kind of staging point for an invasion of the Iranian coast. Now, anyone sitting out on Kharg Island is just going to be a sitting duck and will be blown up in short order.
Amazing that this plan has received any discussion at all.
Symbolism. In Trump’s distorted mind.
Just a coupla minor points here about Trump showing off images of the Epstein Memorial Ballroom. I notice that those drawings only showed the ballroom but did not show it in the context of the White House buildings complex. I find that very suss in itself. But then he mentioned how you can hold the Presidential Inaugurations there which I imagine to be on that huge platform to the side. US Presidential Inaugurations are traditionally held on the west front of the Capitol building and you have huge crowds in attendance. But if he intends shifting it to outside the White House ballroom, I cannot image them letting huge crowds form in the gardens of the White House. And what that means is that it will in future be a closed ceremony composed of elites only and without any plebs present.
I think he meant to say Coronations.
Not for Trump, you don’t
Coming next fall: Hassan’s Heroes. A plucky and wily multinational group of prisoners in an IDF detention camp hilariously outwits their stupid, corrupt and ruthless IDF/US captors. Starring Sasha Baron Cohen as the camp commander, Avi Mossman.
Notorious SBC is, regrettably, a somewhat notable zionist; he’ll not lend his talents unless you can trick him as to the timbre of the script.
Sure sure but just picture it: SBC exclaiming “HassAAAN!” It’s comedy gold!
Also featuring Jerry Seinfeld as the captain of the IDF guards, Sergeant Moskowitz
The common and naive retort I frequently hear is that the US is energy independent now and it wont effect us all that much. even if you take that concept at face value, one should quickly also understand that the US his hugely dependent on the rest of the world for everything else and that 20% energy shortage the rest of the world is going to experience is going to whack the US on everything it is dependent upon from the ROW. There is no escaping this massive real world output shortage that is coming.
yes. and all the dolts saying that Trump can even go as for as a US hydrocarbon export can’t even think 1 step away…..no US hydrocarbonexports = no finished goods imports.
The US should never have lifted its oil export ban (US LNG and oil is too valuable to export in base form and we shouldn’t encourage more fracking than necessary (enviromental impact), but that horse left the neoliberal barn long ago for a host of resons
Not only that, but one should also think of future generations and the legacy will be left with in terms of non-renewable resources. The way we go now, in 250-300 years we would need imense levels of inovation in applied materials, to substitute at level or better what we will need but not able to produce due to inavalability of primary resources.
US produces 13-15 Million BBL Per Day.
US uses 19-20 million BBL Per Day.
I did go to Montana State, but that looks like 25% shortfall between supply and demand. And it does not even speak to the mix of oil stocks we require/ and/or export.
Lotta bad information out there. Informed Citizenry? Not so much. Mis-informed? you bet!
And I still marvel at the lack of resentment or glowering , “at the pump’. We have some odd complacencies and conditioning.
Got the bike tires aired up and the chain lubed so it flies down the road is splendorous silence?
Reporters (whose salary depends on editors’ whim) seem to ignore the basics.
US DoE weekly status report (1030 EDT Wednesdays) confirms (over many years) your numbers for crude oil in USA!
USA exports a lot of LNG since the Russian sanctions, therefore is net exporter in terms of all hydrocarbon products.
Very little of the 250 million barrels of crude Biden released from the national petroleum reserve has been repaid!
It is my new mission in life to sticker every gas pump I visit with the Trump version of the “I Did This” sticker that was visited upon Sleepy Joe a few years back. They are readily available (and inexpensive) online. I just bought 400 more to give to my friends. My personal version of Blows Against the Empire, lol
Those numbers are both true and inaccurate.
The US does produce about 13-15 million BBD of actual oil.
And
The US makes about 5-8 million BBD of oil from natural gas liquids, bio fuels, and refinery processing gains.
Rough totals of 22 million BBD vs about 20 million usage.
The USA has Canada and Mexico as loyal suppliers as well… Canada supplies about 4millon bpd of Tarsand oil.
North America should be fine for petroleum products, provided it exerts some socialist (export) control on the oil majors…
However Sulfur might still be a problem.., hence phospate fertilizers are still a possible very painful hiccup…
There is a brightside.. 20% removal of oil supplies, if we re-allocate properly (sadly not likely), what is necessary can still be supplied, but excess decadence can be impinged upon. (such as Cutting meat consumption by 50% in the west, get rid of ethanol based fuel (very wasteful)
Canada is the world’s second largest producer of sulfur, because tar sands. Four million tons annually.
Four years ago in the MAGA barber’s home town of Owosso MI, there were signs plastered all over gas pumps with the face of Joe Biden on them with the caption “I did that.” The price of 87 octane on those pumps was $3.759. They are currently 44 cents higher. And faceless.
My thanks to Yves and the gang at NC, the coverage here is of extraordinary quality, and terrifying.
May I also add my thanks and blessings for Yves and the splendid community here.
Heck of month it’s been, but hey, at least the daily NC intake of coverage, brings some clarity and actual (painful) knowledge about this whole mess.
Godspeed to all.
Oft repeated, always deserved. Remember this is extra, beyond Yves normal daily schedule. Please, Yves, pace yourself so that you don’t burn yourself out. This horrendous, nonsensical, self-defeating war will grind on. Don’t let it make you into collateral damage.
Being in danger of getting beheaded for changing allegiances is clearly an effective way to cement them. At least for people who consider their own life more important than their nation. So new thinking will not happen in the elites in Gulf states. But new reality is happening regardless. At least in Iran the people in top postitions will not be thinking it is a good way to boost ego and get rich quick. The real danger to life might actually be a way to blow the narcistically oriented out of the water.
A part of the new reality is that US bases are not as protective as they were supposed to be. US and Israel weapons systems are not as effective as the salespeople said – all this Yves has pointed out. EU has been counting on the protection of US bases and the supposed superiority of weapons. How long will it take to notice that this is history? When just figuring out that energy and other shortages are soon knocking at the door takes a month to land. It is obviously hard to look forward, when one has made a fortune out of business as usual. Maybe new brains will be needed to see the new reality. It looks like markets are cut off from reality. What if we will be fighting at the pump about who gets to fill up, and the prices still hover around 100 dollars, because Trump says something? Our ability to be comforted by words seems to be vast. And it is being put into use – not for our benefit, though.
US bases are also bug out sites especially for the Gulf monarchies. Saudi Arabia is nothing more than an oversized plantation. The people who live in the big house and their overseers number, the House of Saud, number about 15,000 which is a bit less than my memory. Enterprising colonels outside the Royal Guard could take the country, and the US knows they will likely want to keep the US around in some capacity. The Sauds promote religious extremists to keep people in line along side their role as guardians of the Hajj which is in May. The unspoken arrangement is the Sauds play ball, and we will escort them out or put down an uprising. Iran is a red herring other than that it exists. An Iran integrated into the global economy is the kind of thing that can give the more enterprising colonels confidence in what comes next.
The Saudis problem is Salman/MBS aren’t in the same league as Faisal or Khalid/Fahd when they really need to be. One thing the Saudis know is they are only 200 years away from the Ottomans and Egyptians trying to exterminate their clan because they were raiders.
In general, I think Western planners saw Iran as somewhere between the Gulf States and decayed Baath parties -(cough) elections matter.
Paraphrasing Condi–It’s the birth pangs of a new Middle East
Thank you for the reality grounding. I too like indi.ca but think reality means the problem is larger than the insanity of the “white” oligarchy that currently rules and has to do with oligarchy in general. Political power may be needed to organize and manage societies but that same power also psychologically corrupts the powerful. As the above indicates the problem is not just Trump but rather the Trumpian love of entitlement that characterizes our entire ruling class and Western culture. They have been going along with Trump because they too can’t handle the truth of their own precarious position.
That which cannot continue will not but the future seems vague and more than a bit scary.
I agree that power corrupts but it works the other way too, power attracts the already corrupt.
And I can believe that power causes brain damage (did Obama aspire to murder and torture when he was a community organizer or did he adapt once he got the big job?) but it works the other way too, power attracts Cluster B types. And given my experience in corporations I’d say that the hiring and promotion systems of big organizations tend to select the most sociopathic for the greatest power.
You are correct, and that is why once a (relatively) uncorrupt person joins the big club (you ain’t in it!) the existing members take pains to ensure that you do something that gives kompromat on you.
I think I remember seeing footage of the Ba’ath party seizing power under Saddam, and if I remember correctly everyone in the room was required to commit murder or be murdered themselves. Christopher Hitchens showcased it on FooTube, but I just can’t find the vid right now.
Basically, these a join-only clubs, which is why all the nominal progs like AOC end up selling out their principles.
Is this the video you are thinking of?
Terrified, the others in the room pledge loyalty to Saddam.
Similar to the ending of La lengua de las mariposas, which I just watched. Even if there is no kompromat, rituals like these change who one is in one’s own mind.
Not the exact video, but includes the relevant footage. Thanks.
“And I can believe that power causes brain damage (did Obama aspire to murder and torture when he was a community organizer or did he adapt once he got the big job”
“Working Class Hero” John Lennon
Nate Hagens, who has interviewed some of the smartest, wisest people in the world over the last four years, has a cogent explanation of this process. When human groups pass the Dunbar number, there is a “phase shift” that turns evolved traits that were beneficial in small groups into counter-productive, even harmful traits in larger groups: “Humanity as Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde: The Symptoms, Patterns, and Drivers” (spot cut)
Human societies in the past (written and not written) had two solutions: walk away or enforced egalitarianism. There is no walking away nowadays, so we must have enforced egalitarianism.
aye. in my feedstore and feedstore parking lot newdealer evangelism, when i say “the system selects for psychopathy”…even the lumpenbillies know exactly what im talking about.
they just didnt have the words to articulate it.
now they do,lol.
for majority of the people who read this, you absolutely need a car to function (we can have a flame war over urban planning later)
at a minimum check your car battery (Pb and sulfuric acid). if it’s old and you live in a climate with at least hot summers, the battery may be ageing out.
I don’t expect battery scarcity in the US, just inflation…but you never know.
Most car nerds in your family/neighborhood will have a battery tester and happy to help you out for a can of beer or some cake, lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_cY77jeJe-k (battery testing)
and/or if you have any essential repairs that you have been putting off, this may be the time to do it…just as all the parts supply chain re-normalized post-Covid. as always, don’t rush into anything.
I have been wondering whether Iranian escalation planning before the conflict took into account all of the dire consequences of closure of the Hormuz Strait for uninvolved parties (which encompasses most of the world).
It has taken a while to get the tolling arrangement working (as of the last news I was aware of, enabling legislation was not yet enacted); this suggests that this concept was not well-developed and prepared for prior to the conflict.
I have the impression that Iran is trying to maintain the moral high ground in sight of the rest of the world, thus the pattern up to this point of proportionate and like-in-kind retaliation. If there is mass starvation due to fertilizer shortages, that might shift the sympathies of many affected countries.
I’m wondering if it might be that the blanket closure of the Strait to all traffic at the beginning of the war is a hint that this aspect of the escalatory reaction ladder was not as well thought out as the kinetic responses.
I imagine the Iranians don’t actually favor tolling as more than a short term band-aid as it invites similar problems everywhere else and reminds everyone why the US empire has been so successful: free trade
Thing is, the Iranians are going to need at least tens of billions of dollars to repair all the destruction done to their country. The US will never agree to reparations and would renege on it if they did. So a toll way is the only viable way to raise the funds needed for reconstruction.
My view is that the rest of the world went ahead in the past with sanctioning and hobbling Iran and just aligning themselves with the wishes of US. Even now, with Iran attacked, what did we get at the UN? Nothing, nada, zilch. So, puting myself in the shoes of an Iranian, I am definitely inclined to say to the world to go F itself. You know, Putin said one time: “If someone decides to annihilate Russia, we have the legal right to respond. Yes, it will be a catastrophe for humanity and for the world. But I’m a citizen of Russia and its head of state. Why do we need a world without Russia in it?” What is good for the goose is good for the gander in my opinion.
Sprinter Press twiXt:
“If you give us the order, millions of Pashtuns from the tribes are ready to wage jihad together with Iran against Israel. We will provide ourselves with weapons and food ourselves.”
Every once in a while, a commenter here will speculate on who are Iran’s allies, if any. I think it is important to re-set Iran in the Persian world.
Observations:
—The Persian language is spoken in Iran, natch. It is called Dari in Afghanistan (spoken there by more than half the population). It is Tajik in Tajikistan. So we are talking about an extension of Persian culture. Many of the estimated 60,000,000 (!!!) Pushtuns would know it as a second language because Pashto and Persian are close relatives.
—Which leads to Urdu, the national language of Pakistan and of India’s Muslim population. Per Wikipedia: “Urdu has been described as a Persianised standard register of the Hindustani language.”
—For a number of years, Rumi was / is the best selling poet in the U S of A. Rumi wrote in Persian. He lived in Konya in (modern) Turkey. Ooops. First, Putin. Now, Rumi. Undermining America!
—Speaking of Turkey, the language of the Ottoman court was Persian or a Persianized form of Turkish. Modern Turks have trouble reading Ottoman texts, because they are in the Arab/Persian alphabet and have many Persian words that language reformers extracted when Turkish was standardized in the 1920s and 1930s.
—Persian cookery. Ahhhh. Its reputation in West Asia is like the reputation of Italian cookery in the United States. Persians are just Italians who serve bigger portions of rice.
—Greco-Persian wars. Roman/Persian endless dustups in Mesopotamia.
Iran is not an isolate, operating through “proxies.” That concept is another form of orientalism. Iran has operated from Greece to Bangladesh. Not recognizing this broad “soft power” is part of the derangement that got the U S of A into this disaster.
Included in Aldous Huxley’s The Perennial Philosophy
Jalal-uddin Rumi
Hiya! Please to meet you! I am Hugh. Hugh Bris.
Persian was the language spoken in Samarkand into the 20th century. Iranian culture was the norm of the polite society in most of Central Asia for centuries–you keep running into Persian terms when you delve into the history of Xinjiang in late 18th/early 19th centuries long after the Qing China conquered it.
In his wonderful novel about the beginnings of the axial age, “Creation”, Gore Vidal tries to set things straight in this respect. Quite sobering for anyone anchored in the idea of “western civilization” and its roots.
excellent DJG!
i knew all this, but hadnt thought of it in the current sitrep.
year before last i did a persian stuffed pumpkin for thanksgiving…spices like cinnamon and such that we in the west associate with sweets, but here used for savoury.
it was wildly good. lamb and dates and rice, foiled up and smoked on the pit. made the sauce, too…altho i cant remember its name right now.
still have half a quart mason jar of that spice mix i made. all kinds of weird stuff(to a texan)
theyve been there forever, and aint goin nowhere…which is what i think Qatar said the other day, when declaring neutrality. (saw it on twitx, didnt follow through/save, now cant find any mention)
Thank you DJG.
Good to be reminded of that – the extent of Persian influence over the centuries.
Someone else reminded us the other day that the Persian Empire went from next to Greece all the way to next to China. That’s pretty bloody big and it lasted for a long long time.
The way English is still spoken in America (sort of) and by quite a lot of people in India shows a similar longterm influence of Empire that remains when the Empire itself is gone.
Always good to keep the Persian Empire in mind. Thanks again for the reminder.
I went down a rabbit hole because a molecular virologist (Marc Johnson) I follow received notice from their helium supplier that his organization can expect half the supply this coming year. He then got pushback saying the US produces all its own helium (both LNG and crude derived). He then embedded the actual notice in the thread (this is all on X).
Turns out the US had helium reserves to support 30% of domestic needs and sold it all to private interests in 2024 and that made the news as medical interests were very concerned about the sale. The US was a top exporter of helium in 2024-25 but it was also a top importer of helium in the same time frame along with Vietnam and Malaysia.
All this suggests, to me at least, is that the producer status of the US (all things petroleum and its byproducts) may not buffer it from the unfolding shocks because the rat’s nest of the interests of the few mean the interests of the actual citizenry cannot and will not be prioritized.
the US had a helium reserve. the 2nd Obama term (2013) enacted a bil to close the reserve. it took that look to close the reserve because that was how much excess helium the US stockpiled, lol
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Helium_Reserve
It is my sincere belief that, for Trump and Hegseth in particular, they have been convinced by the might of Hollywood propaganda. They literally internalized 1980s action moves. They watched Rambo say “are you going to let us win this time?” and they believe it as an article of faith. America always always always wins, because we are America. It’s not even Calvinism, it’s not so intelligent as to be reflected in a respected philosophical tradition.
It’s cheap, tawdry Hollywood bullshit. It’s Top Gun and American Sniper and Red Dawn.
In the original based on the book, Rambo kills himself at the end. It didn’t test well with audiences so they went a different route. Four of five sequels later…
Plot twist: it turns out the gas station with nukes is the US.
The deer-in-the-light-ness of the markets is pretty much the same and looks awfully a lot like the EU manufacturing when they got the memo of the North Stream blow up.
The degree of incompetence of western elites is astounding. And it is seeping down. Wonder how long until the paralysis. At least we stop hurting ROW.
Wait, doesn’t the American Sniper end with the guy committing suicide, after slowly going insane? (As was the case in real life?) I always thought it was a subtle antiwar movie, which would reflect Eastwood’s own views.
No, no it does not, Chris Kyle was shot and killed by Eddie Routh, another vet that Kyle was meeting with at a shooting range. Personally I think Kyle got far to quick and easy an out.
“1980s action movies”
Perhaps the ‘Superhero-Sagas” were even more influential in fostering megalomania, combined with make-believe and too much Jesus.
In Germany there are at least traces of remembrance of two lost World Wars, leading to this title page in satire magazine Titanic: Scared of World War Three: How heavily shall we loose this time?
The great thing about those Hollywood films is the perceived good guys never run out of ammo, unlike say our vaunted military.
from the indi.ca piece, my personal favorite bit:
Joe Kent has been particularly vehement in his praise of Trump’s decision to kill Soleimani.
(Just noting the fact.}
More like Team America: World Police
“America’s Military Is Never Coming Back From This”
Rather a sobering article this. After this war the US military will only be a shadow of what it was before the war began. Other medium power countries will see that the US military is vulnerable and may reorganize their own military organizations accordingly. Mayb more than a few of those 800 bases scattered around the world will lose their relevance as the US will not be able to use them to project their power. It is an utter cluster****. On the other hand, the MIC was able to create tens of thousands of millionaires and more than a few billionaires on defense contracts over the decades so there is that.
Nature abhors a vacuum, and it will be filled by countries with a powerful military-industrial capacity. And the west has no industrial capacity (industry requires energy).
Iran could develop a lucrative export market for its missiles and drones, targeted at countries that have come to realize that US bases are not there to protect them…
I thought this quote, buried right at the end, was important:
Up until recently, this was always America’s strong suit. Because of the pervasiveness of its culture, and the neoliberal ethos that saw the US as its capital, it has historically held the narrative upper hand – to the point where there is often an active fifth column in its target nations that revere the US way of life so much that they’re willing to act against the interests of their own countries. It was always mostly an illusion – the US was ruthless about protecting its interests and generally sold out its intellectually-captured sympathisers at the first opportunity – but it was a powerful one.
Trump doesn’t even bother to pretend. The list is almost too long to mention but we’ve had Greenland, Canada, the Gaza Riviera (and “we’re taking Gaza”), Venezuela, Cuba… America does not care whether the rest of the world sees them as the good guys any more. Now Trump is talking about taking Iran’s oil, which is perfectly on brand for him. This is mere weeks after he was claiming to act on behalf of so-called ‘revolutionaries’ there, now he’s openly saying the US plans to steal all their natural resources? How can the US be considered an ally of anybody, except itself?
The old promise – join us, and you can be just like you imagine us to be – is dead. It was always a lie, but it was a powerful one. That’s gone. Whether you’re an ally or an enemy, you have no interests distinct from the US, you have no property rights, you have no human rights. The US will decide those for you, and it will do so in its own interests, not yours. This is all stated openly and repeatedly by Trump, who (even though he is historically unpopular) still enjoys between 35% and 40% support, and the media is not calling it out, at least not nearly enough. It’s also not unique to Trump, although the bluntness of the messaging is. Much of this, like secondary sanctions, started under Biden or earlier.
If Mexico can’t figure out how to keep the U.S. on its own side of the border after this, they have only themselves to blame.
Poor Mexico. They don’t have the advantages that Iran has. After all, they’re right next door.
I don’t know where I came across this talk with Michael Hudson and Steve Keen from the Institute of David Graeber. If it was here, my apologies.
How the Global Crisis Will Unfold:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIypIDWQAQw
If they are correct, the food crisis is scary stuff.
“There Are Only Nine Meals Between Mankind and Anarchy.”
One person’s anarchy is another’s revolution.
i intend to formally secede, in that case.
all 20 acres.
then start reviewing Livy.
esp the “rape”(ie:abduction) of the Sabine Women.
long ago identified the likely warlords and tribal affiliations that are likely to obtain out here,lol.
i intend to be a kinder, gentler warlord.
Wonderful, if sobering, video.
Thank you!
France probes possible Iran link to foiled bomb attack outside Bank of America in Paris
Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez said the attack, which was foiled after police arrrested two suspects who set an explosive outside the bank, could be linked to Iran due to similarities to recent Iran-linked attacks in other European countries.
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2026/03/30/france-probes-possible-iran-link-to-foiled-bomb-attack-outside-bank-of-america_6751935_7.html
Chinese Cargoes Hint at Fuels Relief for Neighbors Despite Curbs
China has exported cargoes of diesel and other fuels to energy-starved countries across Southeast Asia over the weekend, in what could be a signal of support despite export curbs imposed earlier this month.
Tankers delivered more than 260,000 barrels of diesel to the Philippines and about 100,000 barrels of distillate fuels to Vietnam over the weekend,
Similarities to recent Iran-linked attacks in other European Countries.
The question is “what false flag is the Mossad up to again?” and we have a winner!
sharing wealth in a crisis is smart…and not what we would do. so, doubly smart.
If you give us the order, millions of Pashtuns from the tribes are ready to wage jihad together with Iran against Israel. We will provide ourselves with weapons and food ourselves.”
I’m sure its a nice offer but wouldn’t it put Iran in as a co-belligerent on the side of Afghanistan in the Afghan-Pakistani war? As it is, Iran might end up in war with Pakistan on the basis of the security agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, but a neutral Pakistan may be valuable to Iran. Further, if Pakistan is fighting Iran and the Taliban, I would imagine India will take advantage and things will spill out of the region.
“Pashtun tribal leaders in Pakistan voiced support for Iran during a gathering at the Iranian consulate in Peshawar, signalling the potential for broader regional unrest …
The remarks, while not reflecting any formal state position, highlight the risk of non-state actors becoming more directly involved in a widening regional confrontation. Pakistan’s government has not commented on the meeting, and there is no indication of official endorsement of the statements made at the consulate.”
https://www.intellinews.com/pashtun-leaders-express-support-for-iran-at-pakistan-meeting-434306/
A million taliban would probably keep the Pakistani as an ‘honourable bystander’. Which might be ultimately more useful.
Plus a taliban ground force offensive suffer the worse vulnerability than what the Americans will face if they invade on Iran.
For the same reason, hezbollah cannot launch a ground based offensive into israel. They cannot safely move above ground, except for small infiltration teams, like Russia/ ukraine conflict. Let the IDF come to them.
i am considering re-reading the first six Dune books
Chinese container ships pass through Strait of Hormuz at second attempt, data shows
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-container-ships-pass-through-strait-hormuz-second-attempt-data-shows-2026-03-30/
Turkey says it blocked alleged Israeli plan to recruit Kurdish fighters for Iran war
Report says 500 Kurdish fighters were en route to Iran before Ankara intervened; Erdogan warns Trump move could spark wider regional conflict and ‘ring of fire’
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/s1zfjavsze
Related to the indi.ca analysis/description of US military might, it is gobsmacking to think that Saudi Arabia’s military budget, at the equivalent of about $80B USD, is roughly half that of Russian Federation.
The thought occurs that they could have gotten significantly better capabilities at much lower cost by purchasing Russian kit.
There is a US law that if you purchase Russian kit, that you can be punished and sanctioned unless a waiver is given. Oz should have purchased Russian fighters but instead we went with the abysmal F-35s.
Looks like Australia should have kept the French submarine deal too, since the American submarines may never come at this rate
Those American subs were never meant to become a reality. AUKUS has always been a Trojan horse tribute exercise, played against vassal Australia, for US sub bases to be located down under.
Australian punters have been a long term simple play for the US but maybe its citizens are slowly waking up, thanks to Trump taking the mask off its “powerful friend”.
It seems to me that Australia has been an unincorporated territory of Uncle Sam since the Witlam debacle. The same can be said for New Zealand, which despite appearances is not governed from Wellington, but rather ruled from Washington.
The USA was furious when Turkey decided to acquire the Russian S-400, subsequently prohibiting the sale of advanced equipment (such as F-35 airplanes) to the Turkish military. The EU followed with restrictions regarding common military projects and trade in weaponry.
The USA also exterted quite a lot of pressure on Greece to get rid of the S-300 it had acquired a long time ago via Cyprus.
Then there were those threats against Serbia should it acquire Russian airplanes and S-400. The Serbs eventually went for French Rafale airplanes and… Chinese anti-aicraft systems.
wait! i thought we(usa) were all about free market uber alles!
usaempire is the stupidest empire in history that i can remember.
whats that Lenin quote about years when nothing happens and a week where decades happen?
or the black crowes, “woke up in a whirlwind, yeah baby watch my head spin..”
the problem for the saudis is all the dollars they get for their oil. They have too many of those, and not enough rubles. You gotta put those dollars to some sort of use, might as well be highly overpriced junk.
Given the markets, once again, knee jerk reaction to the Trump headline that talks are going well, I’m more convinced than ever that the change in market momentum is being driven by headline reading algorithms that don’t put a Trump discount on Presidential statements. The initial shift is then propelled by momentum-following algorithms. I can’t imagine human traders still take Trump’s imaginary talks at face value, but I can imagine them using the pump to lay on hedges, (and those with advance word to make a quick, illegal, profit).
Fed put a/k/a BFTD. Like Pavlov’s dog (or Skinner’s pidgeon), markets expect liquidity (rate cuts, QE) to save the day, like every time since the Greenspan years.
A 1973/4 or 1979 scenario is inconceivable, and will be poo-poo’d by the investment committee unless they are very open-minded people and/or history buffs, lol. especially as the blind BTFDers right for 40 straight years
aye. inertia.
and habit.
and a lack of long term institutional memory, because who needs that when next quarter is all that matters, and all those 0’s and 1’s are real, i tell ya!?
Taiwan’s Kuomintang leader to visit mainland China to aid ‘peaceful’ relations: Beijing
Cheng Li-wun invited to visit Jiangsu province, Shanghai and Beijing next month
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3348342/taiwans-kuomintang-leader-visit-mainland-china-aid-peaceful-relations-beijing?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage
Trump Throws Stephen Miller Under Bus in Surprise Display of Panic
As Trump clearly sours on key aspects of Miller’s tenure amid new revelations about it, a veteran immigration lawyer reflects on whether his grand ideological project is starting to falter.
A striking Wall Street Journal report recently revealed that Donald Trump now sees his mass deportations as a major political problem for him. What’s more, Trump is siding internally with advisers who worry that they’ve become a liability in the midterms. In this, Trump is clearly rebuking Stephen Miller and his agenda.
https://newrepublic.com/article/208321/trump-throws-stephen-miller-bus-surprise-display-panic
Speaking of China, does anyone else see the contradiction between “ground war lasting weeks” threats, and the already rescheduled Xi-Trump summit supposed to happen in mid May? My maths says six weeks until that “imaginary summit.”
I don’t think the Chinese have even bothered to confirm anything.
trump intended with the 1st scheduled meeting to present them with a fait accompli, iran is ours, whatyagondo?
but that didnt happen,lol.
what do you do when the hail mary pass lands over where the ambulances are staged?
trump’s in a pickle.
cant go forward, lest thousands of coffins and grieving families…and thus utter defeat.
cant taco, lest utter defeat with iran as a newly formed regional hegemon in control of the most important waterway on earth, and us kicked out of middle east(already happened, as nea as i can tell)
near east oil for near easters looks to be the end game here….if they can get their shit together and overcome the last 100+ years of western meddling and bullshit.
I’m trying to think of a country where eventually there can be peace talks. Actual real ones. Nowhere in the Middle East as far as I can see nor the EU. The US would never accept Russia or China hosting talks. India and Pakistan are out as would be Japan and South Korea. Maybe South Africa but Trump would spit the dummy over that one. Who is left? Maybe it should be a teleconference to ensure that the Iranian negotiators are not kidnapped or assassinated.
Perhaps Malaysia or Indonesia. Muslim, but not aggressively so. Not hostile to Western countries, but more independent than, say, the Philippines. Quite neutral regarding the 3rd Gulf War and the Russo-Ukrainian war. Economically significant, but no blatantly dangerous economic competitors to the USA (contrarily to China and Vietnam).
Cuba?
Rev, that might be a brilliant idea – an internationally broadcast and livestreamed teleconferenced peace negotiation, let the whole world know exactly what is being said, by who. It may be a way to get Iran and the US to the table. And might even be a way forward for any such negotiations worldwide, regardless of parties.
Obviously privacy makes agreement more feasible, audience pressures harden positions and tend to lead to face-saving, private talks allow for changing positions without loss of face, also for building trust and candor, and can reduce public misinformation, manage complexity, etc., but we’re way past that now.
An alternative might shape up to be a sort of internationally broadcast, livestreamed teleconferenced Nuremberg trial for the US and Israel, compliments of the ICC?
The Oman. But the US with not negotiate beneath Iran’s missile range.
Maybe Addis Ababa, it is the premier multilateral organisation host in Africa? Or Egypt?
Uruguay :-)
¡!!!!!!!!!!?!???????!!!!!!!!!
I was wondering if some place in South America might work. Although Uruguay did not attend the Shield of the Americas Summit,
” they did sign the joint security agreement
Mauritius. And while there, the issue of the Chagos Islands could be settled, too.
Iranians would probably need to hitch a lift from Russians or Chinese to arrive safely.
if the universe has a moral arc, it should be held in Havana.
with a russian and chinese naval presence, of course…because who trusts the usa any more?
my country needs to be put in its place, i am afraid.
nothing else is gonna curtail our “leaders'” insane designs on world domination.
we deserve to be a pariah state, like israel, for the next 50 years.
and i say that as a fucking patriot.
Jerusalem, Palestine. But it might take a while, though.
I could be totally off-base, usually am, but Iran seems to be playing a game of chess here, and their enemies have been good enough to make predictable moves which lead to predictable responses which further erode their enemies’ position. US/Israel attacked, Iran takes Hormuz. If the US involves ground forces, Iran is threatening attacks from proxies/allies in the region. What is noteworthy is Iran has been able to frame its conduct as defensive, but what is transpiring is the expansion of Iranian influence and control across the whole region. They are, in effect, reaping the benefits of an offensive war while being able to frame it as defensive.
I think there will be a ground war, regardless of the US does, but my prediction is that Trump does something splashy and stupid which ends in mass casualties on the US side. People forget that Iran has something over 1.0 million troops. They don’t all have to sit in Iran, they can integrate with allied forces across the region. That puts them in a decent place to roll up some territory, especially having pounded all the military assets in the region and shutting off the income to the Gulf States. If they shut off the Red Sea, even Saudi will have very limited capacity to ship oil anywhere. My guess is Iran is going for control over the entire region, and Trump is playing right into the plan, and giving them a pretext for it.
We are probably looking at a long ground war of attrition in the Arabian Peninsula, and the US better get that draft going pretty damn quick if they want to be relevant.
Given the supply chain disruption, how realistic is it to believe that US could equip and then sustain a mass-conscript army in the field?
A sobering thought is that the military might be needed at home to maintain order.
how realistic is it to believe that US could equip and then sustain a mass-conscript army in the field
“How realistic is to believe” anything coming out of the mouth of Trump, Lindsey Graham, General Jack Keane, Pete Hegseth and the rest of the crew? Whatever constrains the Trump administration, it is not “realism” . . . Trump probably wants to start a ground war so he can dress up in a field uniform like Putin and pretend he is the second coming of Patton. Maybe they can make him one of those suits with the anti-gravity suspenders like Baron Harkonnen in Dune? Sunk-cost fallacy, imperial hubris and performative narcissism “trump” reality for this Administration.
Just in case this has not been brought up before, here’s ‘Ozymandias’ –
https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/46565/ozymandias
(I think Shelley was referencing Napoleon, which seems apropos, no?)
(I think Shelley was referencing Napoleon, which seems apropos, no?)
Trump versus Napoleon: Napoleon was a tyrant, so check there, but Napoleon was a great general and a competent stateman, so deeply divergent. (Talleyrand versus Kushner?)
Not really, at least Napoleone di Buonaparte was a talented military and political leader, until the hubris of invading Russia brought his downfall.
The current Idiot Emperor and his Sycophant-Kakistocrat Krew are tragic buffoons. But as they say, “the mask is off”: the US “leadership” is exposed as child-murdering, genocidal, ignorant, corrupt, kleptocratic, amoral, lawless cretins. It’s almost as bad as giving the “nuclear football” to a Chimpanzee.
I’d sooner trust a chimp. (And never another Princeton grad)
Logistics aside, there was a RAND study some years ago. In short, the US has too many health problems, a population devoid of basic skills (outdoorsy stuff), and no training program in place to field its potential manpower for two or three years.
Just things like the growing intensity of high school sports (high school football has jack to do with the same high school team from the 80’s) have made otherwise potentially great soldiers unfit with the kinds of chronic injuries that would normally be the result of childhood accidents. We addicted so many with pain killers.
As a country, we aren’t fit.
> As a country, we aren’t fit.
Population health would seem to be a matter of considerable significance for national security.
I’m not aware of much agitation on this front by top military leadership, but perhaps this is more in RFK, Jr.’s bailiwick.
now twist that knife,lol.
i cant remember the last person in a position of power in the usa who thought strategically…i dont think zbignew counts at all.
Kissinger, maybe, but he was retired by the time i came of age.
I would call this perceptive.
“game of chess”
Classic chess tip: A bad strategy is better than no strategy. A Grandmaster almost always has a strategy, a beginner most often not.
Iran certainly has a long-term plan, Trump’s has been lost somewhere dark in his bowels.
Israel backtracks after Italy leads outrage at denied access to Holy Sepulchre
Netanyahu says Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem Pizzaballa to get full access
https://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2026/03/30/israel-backtracks-after-italy-leads-outrage-at-denied-access-to-holy-sepulchre_06f95e8b-74c1-4abe-b723-fb31eb0295b4.html
A bit too late, no?
How magnanimous.
Pretty sure that isn’t going to reassure Christians not just Catholic ones that Jerusalem is in good hands under Israeli control.
Trump ‘planning high-risk operation to seize Iran’s uranium using US troops’
The American leader claimed Tehran would give the US ‘the nuclear dust’ as part of a peace agreement
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/trump-iran-uranium-us-troops-ground-invasion-b2948125.html
Yeah they will gladly hand over the magic dust to the Mad Emperor himself, then he will rename the region: The Gulf of Trump, The Trump Sea and the Trump Republic of Iran. Then the emperor will “take” Iran’s oil for himself. And the presstitutes of the Epstein Class Media take all this seriously?
The old question remains: are these “journalists” so paid-off that they believe in lies and fairy-tale explanations? Do they believe in their own propaganda? Andrei Martyanov has said that the media and politicians are “getting high on their own supply” ( I think that is a reference to Scarface with Pacino)
The lies and BS just get more and more irrational and delusional. I guess when one’s paycheck depends on…
My sense is that locating uranium in Iran would be akin to looking for Waldo there…
So you’re saying Iran put a red and white striped shirt and hat on it.
“a pretend-raid someplace with credible-looking terrain, load a bunch of canisters on helicopters, says it captured Iran’s enriched uranium”
After reading this, I began rethinking my stance on the veracity of the moon landings.
By the way, what about Netanjahu. Is he still alive and kickbacking? Or only an Ai-Avatar, telecommanded from a boiling cauldron in hell?
Netanyahu is still alive. The IsraeliPM channel on YouTube has several videos including talking to media in front of an area that was struck and statements as part of visits to the northern command a few days ago. Apparently he is traveling with a mobile bomb shelter when he leaves Tel Aviv/Jerusalem.
It makes no sense for Iran to take out Bibi or Trump as there is every likelihood either would be replaced by someone more competent.
It feels like it had been a while since we had a Trump war crime threat posted on Truth Social. The wait is over!
Donald J. Trump
3 hours ago
@realDonaldTrump
The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately “Open for Business,” we will conclude our lovely “stay” in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet “touched.” This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year “Reign of Terror.” Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
—-
For some reason the “,which it probably will be,” kills me :)
Oh yeah! Trump as sensible and reasonable as a black widow spider. The survivors will have fun with Trump’s TS posts in a hypothetical future.
Rev Kev is onto reality – there will be no peace talks – there will be US signing of surrender terms by the US (na gonna happen), or the US will huff its way back to North America, abandoning West Asia (including a depopulated Israel) while the region pledges allegiance to Tehran (or disappear into the sands). Same conclusion as Russia has come to – the war will be settled on the battlefield – incidentally, per Stanislav Krapitnik, Russia views the Iran war as existential and an extension of the NATO Ukraine war.
Can the US abandon West Asia and not find itself forced out of East Asia? The US is stripping East Asian military assets for destruction and they are not being replaced ever (no Chinese rare earths – the US’s clearly and often stated next target enemy).
Twitter OSINT commentators have noticed their feeds suddenly more full of Japanese users. They welcome the change, but I can’t help but see it as the first moves in an attempt to wed the american and japanese pops as the new “aircraft carrier” of the far east. Taiwan’s cooked.
Yeah, I will be somewhat surprised if Taiwan does not use the Iran War interregnum to negotiate favorable unification terms.
I don’t know much about Taiwanese culture, but my working hypothesis is they can’t be as dumb as the U.S. and Europe. Anybody smarter than the U.S. and Europe should exit this coalition stage left.
Maybe Trump is negotiating with a duly sycophantic regime in exile in Los Angeles. If so, everyone must be aware that it didn’t work out so well with Juan Guaido…
Today at El Pais we had a dose of market denial-ism by non other than Larry Fink from Blackrock. The headline was saying that Larry Fink, presidente de BlackRock y el hombre más poderoso del mercado: “La economía mundial entrará en recesión si la guerra en Irán se alarga más de un año”. Translted: Larry Fink BlackRock’s CEO, the most powerful man in the market says “The world economy will enter recesion if the war in Iran goes on for more than a year”. Which is another way of saying “stay calm, notin gona happen soon”. Bloody idiot!
Three weeks became a year, other side of the (non) election? I need a stockpile of barf bags!
Don’t suppose he’d try to calm the markets while unloading his portfolio and/or shifting into oil etc.
Still amazed no reports of Iran stopping 7mb/d oil flowing from gulf to Saudi Red Sea port.
In my opinion this is pure PMCs denial of realities again. Europeans “no problemo we will be OK without Russian oil and NG” Now Europeans and Americans “no problemo we will be OK without Russian and Middle East energy and derivative products”. The “we” here being a very narrow “we” including very few among the PMC.
New U.S. Missile Hit Iranian Sports Hall and School, Analysis Shows (NYT)
Paywall free link in tweet
On the first day of the war with Iran, a weapon bearing the hallmarks of a newly developed U.S.-made ballistic missile was used in an attack that struck a sports hall and adjacent elementary school near a military facility in southern Iran, according to weapons experts and a visual analysis by The New York Times. Local officials cited in Iranian media said this strike and others nearby in the city of Lamerd killed at least 21 people.
The Feb. 28 attack occurred the same day as a U.S. Tomahawk cruise missile struck a school in the city of Minab, several hundred miles away, killing 175 people. In the case of Lamerd, though, it involved a weapon that had been untested in combat.
The Times verified videos of two strikes in Lamerd, as well as aftermath footage from the attacks. Times reporters and munitions experts found that the weapon features, explosions and damage are consistent with a short-range ballistic missile called the Precision Strike Missile, or PrSM (pronounced like “prism”), which is designed to detonate just above its target and blast small tungsten pellets outward.
Videos that capture one strike, in a residential area about 900 feet from the sports hall and school, show the weapon in flight, with a distinctive silhouette that matches the PrSM. The missile erupts in a large fireball midair…
…The PrSM is a short-range ballistic missile designed to replace the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, in the Army and Marine Corps arsenal. Developed by Lockheed Martin in Camden, Ark., it’s capable of hitting targets at a range of approximately 400 miles. But additional details about the weapon, including its expected accuracy and the quantity of explosives it carries, remain unknown to the public.
Per Guardian (has photos)
An industrial building and a fuel tanker in Israel’s northern city of Haifa were hit by debris from an intercepted missile, Israel’s fire and rescue service said on Monday.
It was not immediately clear where the missile was fired from.
—–
Reading the last few weeks of Israeli, Saudi and Emirati statements leads me to conclude that “debris from interceptions” are the most accurate and dangerous munitions around.
Reading the last few weeks of Israeli, Saudi and Emirati statements leads me to conclude that “debris from interceptions” are the most accurate and dangerous munitions around.
That is exactly what I was thinking. If they can do so much damage with debris what difference does it make?
I lump this into the same MSM claim about number of Iranian missiles destroyed. They probably include missiles that detonated at target as destroyed, which is I guess technically correct as they are no longer functional.
When Ukraine offered to help the Gulf states against Iranian drones, there were many jokes in the Russian telegram along the lines “to stop them, first you need a lot of electric transformers…”
“These people are lunatics. They are insane. They are religious zealots who can never be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon because they have an apocalyptic vision of the future,” Rubio added.
—
Deliberately posted without context.
“Let every round find its mark against the enemies of righteousness and our great nation … Give them wisdom in every decision, endurance for the trial ahead, unbreakable unity, and overwhelming violence of action against those who deserve no mercy.”
Pure projection (and unintentional tragic humor). Narco must have been looking in the mirror when he said that.
On one hand we have a dangerous theocratic regime in possession of nuclear weapons and a clear threat to humanity, on the other hand we have Iran?
Two dangerous theocratic regimes, right?
Serbia secures gas import deal with Russia, Serbia’s Vucic says
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/serbia-secures-gas-import-deal-with-russia-serbias-vucic-says-2026-03-30/
Turkey says NATO defences downed fourth inbound Iranian missile
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-says-nato-defences-downed-fourth-inbound-iranian-missile-2026-03-30/
Iranian plane scheduled to pick up medicines from Delhi struck by US-Israel strikes ahead of take-off
The aircraft was scheduled to reach New Delhi Wednesday morning and carry medicines procured by the Iranian embassy here using donations from Indians.
https://theprint.in/diplomacy/iranian-plane-scheduled-to-pick-up-medicines-from-delhi-struck-by-us-israel-strikes-ahead-of-take-off/2892196/?amp
not sure about the above source
War: We won’t join US on ground operations against Iran – Israel
https://dailypost.ng/2026/03/30/war-we-wont-join-us-on-ground-operations-against-iran-israel/
not sure about this one, either
We keep seeing these kind of statistics thrown around, both low and high. I find it impossible that one could come up with these kind of numbers. You would have to know how many missiles had been launched, and how many actually hit their targets. I don’t see how either of these figures could be available in a wartime environment. All of the regional radar systems have been destroyed, so there’s no way to tell how many missiles are in flight, and targeted countries are not going to cheerfully report the number of successful missile strikes even if they somehow knew that.
Seems like the most these reports could be is some kind of gut level feeling, akin to “a few” or “a lot.”
Even if one has the belief that anti-missile technology is a workable thing (I don’t), at this point every missile fired by Iran towards a western target must be hitting it absent some kind of problem with the missile itself. This is unlikely to change in the next few months or years. The consequences of this fact seem remarkable and unprecedented in history.
82.78% of all statistics* are invented on the spur of the moment.
* You’d be saddened how many peoples’ response to the statement is “Really? That high?”
Homer Simpsom
… and the other 24.22% are just plain wrong…
AMK Mapping who has some sort of access and hasn’t changed his operation much records 95 percent interceptions at the beginning of March and 55 percent interceptions now. These feel kind of right to me.
He believes the firing rate of Iran is a deliberate long term policy to keep this number going down.
I like Larry Johnson’s insight but generally I would double check a lot of facts he throws around. There is nothing on Haaretz that says this. In fact, most recent story was how their air defenses have improved, at least drones coming from Lebanon.
Johnson must have gotten his info from this article which I believe was linked to at NC in the last couple days – https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/israel-confirm-iranian-missile-80pct-success
“The Israeli paper Haaretz has confirmed that 8 out of 10 Iranian missiles launched against Israeli targets are reaching their targets,…”
I took it for granted when I first read it since I assumed Military Watch was a reasonably reliable source and wouldn’t make up a citation, but there is no link to Haaretz in the article. Putting that opening line into a search just now only brings up the same article. Sounds like this is either fake news or something got scrubbed.
It feels like we’re playing whack-a-mole trying to vet sources around here lately.
New U.S. Missile Hit Iranian Sports Hall and School, Analysis Shows https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/29/world/middleeast/us-precision-strike-missile-iran-lamerd.html
Another “accident.”
That headline “New U.S. Missile Hit Iranian Sports Hall and School, Analysis Shows” needs clarification. The missile strike was on February 28th, it’s not a “new strike” . The missile that struck on February 28th was of a “new design” .
As to the strike that also happened on February 28th against the girls’ school, I seem to remember that it was reported at the time that Israeli AI was used to select that Target. Basically they were tracking communications between military personnel and their families and they struck that school specifically because of who they thought their parents were. It was not an accident. And neither was the “double tap” on that same location.
I think it’s clear that it meant it was a new US missile that was used. And, I agree it’s very likely it wasn’t an accident, and rather a war crime, thus the quotation marks.
Since you brought it up, here’s another article about Israeli AI used to assassinate, or murder, Iranians: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/03/30/iran-israel-war-killings/ Of course there’s no condemnation, just glowing praise.
Some news on the upcoming supply shocks, this time in the US plastics industry. From a friend who works for one of the big companies:
My takeaway from the conversation is that “Texas Tea” can somewhat substitute for “light sweet crude”, but it’s more expensive, requires retooling plants, etc. His assessment is that the US is likely to get intermittent availability and drastic price increases for various plastic / chemical products, rather than the complete unavailability that much of the rest of the world will run into.
I guess the terms to describe this is institutional corruption, kleptocracy, imperial hubris and normalcy bias. The denial of this institutional corruption as well as flagrant high crimes is also evident in the Epstein Class Media. Genocide, kleptocracy, corruption, lawlessness is normalized by these Sycophant-Stenographers (with a few rare exceptions)
Also, the deep-seated ethno-supremacy, racism, Orientalism (fill in the appropriate terms) toward Iran is reflected in the ignorant and irrational statements as well as the actions from the US regime. Buncha raghead mullahs and all that
How could Iran have modern, cutting-edge missile, drone, and other technology, developed independently? Even critics of the US empire may fall back on the easy assumption that Iran got the technology from Russia and China. However, some find it more than remarkable that Iran has achieved much of its military successes independently. Of course, it is almost certain that Iran is getting some ISR (intelligence surveillance, reconnaissance) assistance from Russia and China, but they have maintained a fierce sense of independence at the same time. And all of this while enduring decades of brutal economic warfare and blockades (so-called sanctions).
This has been covered here before many times, but it is almost unbelievable that Iran has been able to fend off the combined power of the US/Israel and the vassal states… Iran (and the Resistance) is up against the entire empire
As always, the majority of Western world countries, politicians, PMC’s, CEO’s and “silent majority” will quickly switch the side when the wind change. I hope we won’t be all dead by then.
“One day, when it’s safe, when there’s no personal downside to calling a thing what it is, when it’s too late to hold anyone accountable, everyone will have always been against this.”
Omar El Akkad
Been there, saw that.
Aluminium hits four-year peak after Iran attacks Middle East smelters
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/aluminium-hits-four-year-peak-after-iran-attacks-middle-east-smelters-2026-03-30/
LG Chem secures 27,000 tons of Russian naphtha (South Korea)
https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10705958
Plastic is the hidden cost of the war in Iran
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/business/plastic-cost-war-iran
finally beginning to twig to these effects, eh?
Zelenskyy Confirms Partner Requests to Reduce Strikes on Russian Oil Facilities Amid Energy Crisis
https://united24media.com/latest-news/zelenskyy-confirms-partner-requests-to-reduce-strikes-on-russian-oil-facilities-amid-energy-crisis-17410
Trump again warns Iran to open Strait of Hormuz
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-again-warns-iran-open-strait-hormuz-2026-03-30/
Or he’ll huff and puff and blow their country down. With the Strait of Hormuz the Iranians have Trump by the short and curlies and he doesn’t like it.
Trump: Military ‘building a massive complex’ under new White House ballroom
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5807115-donald-trump-military-complex-white-house-ballroom/
Republicans Want to Gut Health Care to Pay for Trump’s Iran War
Republicans continue to find new ways to make you pay more for the sake of Donald Trump’s vanity projects.
https://newrepublic.com/post/208342/republicans-health-care-cuts-donald-trump-iran-war
Trump is fighting a ‘boomer war’ in Iran: a relic unpopular with anyone under 60
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/mar/30/trump-boomer-war-iran
Trump is baffled that Iran won’t end the war he started
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/26/politics/trump-iran-peace-talks-us-troops-analysis
Trump Has Turned the US Economy Into Sh*t
The worst jobs president in American history has also made nearly everything we consumer more expensive while starting a war of choice in the Middle East and giving mass tax giveaways to the wealthiest people and corporations.
https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/did-trump-ruin-the-economy
Pentagon Pete’s Jesus War Talk Freaks Out Troops
https://www.thedailybeast.com/pentagon-pete-hegseths-jesus-war-talk-freaks-out-troops/
Newsom’s backtracking suggests Democrats fear pro-Israel lobbyists, not voters
https://www.sacbee.com/opinion/article315203226.html
They always want to gut healthcare (or soc. sec.) to pay for whatever folly of the day. Funny how that goes.
I prefer “Baghdad Pete” as a hat tip to Baghdad Bob, Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf, the Iraqi Minister of Information during Shrub’s Iraq adventure in 2003. Pete’s briefings are just about as informative as Bob’s were.
Regarding the image in this post following the text “Iran has launched three waves of launches to the Negev in under an hour” – note this shows places where air raid sirens were sounding, due to the possibility of being hit with either missiles or debris from interception of missiles. It does not show actual hits. This type of map is shown on Haaretz multiple times a day.
Trump Ally Predicts Total Disaster for U.S. if War Escalates
The Blackwater founder said he is “extremely concerned” about what might happen if Trump puts boots on the ground in Iran.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-ally-erik-prince-predicts-total-disaster-for-us-if-war-escalates/
Trump’s popularity is sinking. Iran has him cornered
The US President is bored and wants to declare victory, according to White House officials, but he may see dramatic escalation as his only way out
https://inews.co.uk/news/world/trumps-popularity-sinking-iran-cornered-4319394
Lacking Any Strategy, Trump Prepares to Escalate
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/lacking-any-strategy-trump-prepares-to-escalate
As Americans Deepen Their Nonviolent Mobilization, the Trump Administration Begins To Make Concessions
https://www.americanprogress.org/article/as-americans-deepen-their-nonviolent-mobilization-the-trump-administration-begins-to-make-concessions/
The oil markets have stopped listening to Trump
The president’s announcements of escalation appear to be timed for when the markets are closed, while he is more conciliatory during the working week
https://www.thetimes.com/us/news-today/article/oil-price-barrel-gas-cost-iran-w99f0m32q
Trump administration cuts turned rural towns into sitting ducks for disasters
https://www.npr.org/2026/03/30/nx-s1-5753765/fema-trump-extreme-weather-rural-pennsylvania
Trump convenes “God Squad” to override Endangered Species Act, up oil production
Administration wants to exempt all federally regulated offshore oil from protections.
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/03/trump-convenes-god-squad-to-override-endangered-species-act-up-oil-production/
JD Vance says aliens are ‘demons’ and details obsession with UFOs
Vice-president promises ‘to get to the bottom of’ reports of US government files about unidentified flying objects
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/30/jd-vance-alien-ufo-are-demons
America’s pro-Israel lobby is facing a backlash
As attitudes to Israel shift, AIPAC is shifting its tactics
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2026/03/26/americas-pro-israel-lobby-is-facing-a-backlash
Iran war ‘shock’ is dimming outlook for many economies, IMF says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-war-is-dimming-outlook-many-economies-imf-says-2026-03-30/
Judge Napolitano and Alastair Crooke on US/Iran “negotiations”, Iran’s bigger picture, the petrodollar and the financialization of the Western world’s economy, etc. utube, ~27+ minutes.
Alastair Crooke : Is Trump Negotiating with Iran!?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyBGuATk5AE
What Crooke said about the dollar is wrong. He needs to stick to what he knows. I don’t have the energy to debunk him.
I agree, it’s a bit disappointing that the “petrodollar” which is a relatively small aspect of the entirety of USD hegemony, or dominance, is seen as the primary driver for demand of USD. As you have pointed out many times (and Hudson credited you by name recently in an interview with Nima and Richard Wolff) the USD represents a relatively small percent of intl trade. Not many people have a grasp on the role of USD in intl financial markets in general. It has taken me years to even have the basics down.
Some may see this as quibbling, but it is important to understand. Japan and Switzerland have some of the largest reserves of treasuries and other USD denominated assets, for example, and they don’t produce any oil.
You should write an article on the nonexistence of the petrodollar and put it on a permanent URL.
Then every time someone says “end of petrodollar is coming”, you only need enough energy to copy+paste the URL.
What is coming to an end is the petrocapital system, which is not the same as “petrodollar”. And the origin stories are distortions, particularly regarding the motivations and actions of the key players.
I wrote an entire book on the crisis which documented in depth that it was not a housing or subprime debt crisis, both of which were too small to produce a global financial meltdown (mind you, that would have produced a very bad recession, like an S&L crisis x 1.5x). It was a derivatives crisis.
It is not worth my time to fight false views that have become impacted
3 Indonesian UN peacekeepers killed within 24 hours in south Lebanon
UNIFIL says 2 separate incidents involved projectiles of unknown origin
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/un-peacekeepers-killed-lebanon-unifil-9.7147027
‘Pakistan’s forums are their own; we didn’t participate’: Iran rejects mediation claim
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/pakistans-forums-are-their-own-we-didnt-participate-iran-rejects-mediation-claim/articleshow/129903656.cms?from=mdr
Russian Billionaire Deripaska Proposes 12-Hour Workday to Save Economy
https://united24media.com/latest-news/russian-billionaire-deripaska-proposes-12-hour-workday-to-save-economy-17412
Trump insults ‘dumb judges’ ahead of key Supreme Court ruling over protection for ‘babies of slaves’
https://www.al.com/politics/2026/03/trump-insults-dumb-judges-ahead-of-key-supreme-court-ruling-over-protection-for-babies-of-slaves.html
Trump Manipulates Markets With Extreme Early Morning Iran Announcement
Another Trump post before the crack of dawn was revealed to be a clear attempt to rig the markets.
https://newrepublic.com/post/208345/trump-manipulates-markets-iran-war
Trump Declares ‘Cuba Is Finished’ While Letting Russian Oil Tanker Break Illegal US Blockade
The president’s decision means the US “will not illegally intercept and seize the entirely legal and legitimate sovereign trade in oil,” said one observer.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/trump-russian-oil-tanker-cuba
US moves to soften capital rules: ‘Big banks can declare mission accomplished’
Fed officials expected to lower capital requirements for banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase by 4.8%
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/19/federal-reserve-bank-capital-requirements
Also in Lebanon:
“Separately, the Lebanese army said one of its soldiers was killed and others were wounded after an Israeli attack on an army checkpoint in the Tyre region. The soldier’s name wasn’t released.”
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-news-updates/card/israeli-lebanese-soldiers-killed-in-fighting-in-southern-lebanon-sjGuiq4ESqdiFoxAbpLo
U.S. bets billions of dollars on unproven groups in rare earth deals
https://www.ft.com/content/4ba88e38-fdfd-447c-9250-163cd85293c4?segmentid=c50c86e4-586b-23ea-1ac1-7601c9c2476f
Trump is forcing coal plants to stay open. It could cost customers billions
[see the picture of that coal train at the top? Nineteen of those trains go through Kamloops, British Columbia every single day. They come from the east Kootenays and go to Vancouver where they are sent to China. It’s coking coal for making steel.]
https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/nation-politics/trump-is-forcing-coal-plants-to-stay-open-it-could-cost-customers-billions/
Pressure mounts on European diesel supply as tankers turn away
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-30/tankers-carrying-diesel-toward-europe-change-course-in-atlantic?leadSource=reddit_wall
>Rare earth deals
There is no mention of refining, which I understand is the critical bottleneck. This is not serious and is someone’s grifting effort
‘Despite questions about Round Top’s viability, USA Rare Earth does have a key piece of the rare earths supply chain: UK-based Less Common Metals, a lossmaking manufacturer it acquired last year for $217mn.
Less Common Metals has expertise that few outside China possess: its factory in Cheshire turns mined rare earths into the metal used by magnet makers. The operation is small, recording just £8.5mn in turnover and more than £1mn in losses in 2024.
USA Rare Earth plans to expand Less Common Metals’ operations at new facilities in France and in the US in Oklahoma, where it is developing a magnet factory. (USA Rare Earth last week commissioned its first magnet production line, and plans to produce some this year and at scale by 2029.)
David Abraham, an affiliate professor at Boise State University and a former White House official, said Less Common Metals “is a vital piece of the supply chain outside China despite its size, with very respected leadership and strong industry connections”.’
Oops, I missed that because I was looking for the word refinery. I wonder if it’s their own refining machinery/methods or not though, from what I understand most of the refinery outside of China still depends on their machines and technologies
Iran Missile Strike Hits ADAMA Chemical Plant in Southern Israel
https://worldinfopk.com/iran-missile-strike-hits-adama-chemical-plant-in-southern-israel/
‘Greater North America’: Hegseth draws Trump’s new world map with a dig at Global South
https://www.firstpost.com/world/greater-north-america-hegseth-draws-trumps-new-world-map-with-a-dig-at-global-south-13994589.html
Israel Passes Law to Hang Palestinians Convicted of Deadly Attacks
Experts say the law was written in such a way as to ensure that it was unlikely to ever apply to Jewish extremists who commit similar crimes.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/30/world/middleeast/israel-death-penalty-palestinians-attacks.html?unlocked_article_code=1.XFA.gcB-.QxX_44vI20zu
India to Purchase S-400 Systems and Drones From Russia for $25 Billion
https://united24media.com/latest-news/india-to-purchase-s-400-systems-and-drones-from-russia-for-25-billion-17356
Germany’s Merz says Berlin will work with Syria to return refugees
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/merz-says-syrian-refugees-have-important-role-rebuilding-their-country-2026-03-30/
China sanctions aide of Japan PM Takaichi for Taiwan trips
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-sanctions-japanese-lawmaker-taiwan-ties-state-media-reports-2026-03-30/
> India to Purchase S-400 Systems and Drones From Russia for $25 Billion
That’s the confirmation of the revolution in military affairs. When begun? Oreshnik? (Nov 21 2024).
indi.ca > They brought a fighter jet to a rocket fight and are getting eviscerated.
re: a question yesterday about where US refueling tankers are operating from:
https://www.flightradar24.com/30.64,38.67/6
The number of visible tankers depends on them turning on their transponders.
Trump interested in calling on Arab states to help pay for Iran war, White House says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-interested-calling-arab-states-help-pay-iran-war-white-house-says-2026-03-30/
U.S. may “reexamine” NATO’s merit after Iran war snub, Rubio says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-30/us-may-reexamine-nato-s-merit-after-iran-war-snub-rubio-says?leadSource=reddit_wall
Iran presses Houthis on Red Sea shipping, officials say
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-30/iran-presses-houthis-on-red-sea-shipping-european-officials-say?leadSource=reddit_wall
Re; the NATO reassessment, I think that has to be bluster or bluffing. I can’t imagine that he actually wants to alienate them — who else is going to purchase US-made weaponry after its performance in the Ukraine and Iran conflicts?
Trump interested in calling on Arab states to help pay for Iran war? Won’t they need their money to repair all the damage done to their own countries first?
‘I Think That MAGA Is Dying’: Inside the Youth Movement at CPAC
At a sparsely attended Conservative Political Action Conference, young Republicans were eager to start the post-Trump era.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/30/style/cpac-scene-maga.html
Trump’s White House ballroom: fake windows and stairs to nowhere
The US president’s plans for his $400m East Wing expansion, paid for by donations from Big Tech, have drawn criticism in Washington
China sends Cuba another 15,000 tons of rice
https://en.cibercuba.com/noticias/2026-03-27-u1-e208574-s27061-nid324237-china-envia-cuba-otras-15-mil-toneladas-arroz
[look at that picture of the rice!]
Trump Adviser Paula White Says Christians Must Send 10% Of Gross Income To Israel Or Risk Disobeying God
https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/paula-white-cain-tithe-appeal-israel-1789290
>Trump Adviser Paula White Says Christians Must Send 10% Of Gross Income To Israel Or Risk Disobeying God
https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/paula-white-cain-tithe-appeal-israel-1789290
Not possible with paying more at the pump for gas and diesel. I’m tapped out. Oh, and heating oil too. Thanks goodness summer is coming in New England
sarc off
Yves
Please read the commentary of Craig Murray. He has a very worrying different take on Trump and the Iran war. What is your view on his opinion? I am surprised that Murray is not in you Blog roll. He is in Venezuela now, and has made interesting observations, just as he did when last Israel was pounding Lebanon.
I am not omniscient. I cannot read every commentator and consider every view. Murray unlikel many of the others we do attempt to follow does not have a military background or a history of dealing in an official capacity in the Middle East. His time in government service ended in 2005, well before the Trump era. He may be very smart and understand diplomacy and be a person of high character (rare these days), but you do not make a case as to why he should be seen as having special insight on the Middle East or Turmp, let alone summarized his views or even provided a link.
Iranian missile attack sparks blaze in chemical plant, fears of hazardous leak
No injuries in strike on Neot Hovav industrial zone; Environmental Protection Ministry later gives all clear after locals told to stay away; another missile hits Beersheba, lightly injuring 11
https://www.timesofisrael.com/iranian-missile-attack-sparks-blaze-in-chemical-plant-fears-of-hazardous-leak/
Zelenskyy offers Ukraine’s help to unblock Hormuz
Kyiv defeated Russia in the Black Sea from 2023-2024 — and is offering to do the same with Iran in the Persian Gulf.
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy-help-unblock-strait-of-hormuz-iran-war/
China’s oil routes through Iran and Hormuz are redrawing global lines of power
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-31/strait-of-hormuz-iran-russia-india-china-oil-trade/106510800
White House Signals Willingness to End Iran War Without Reopening Strait of Hormuz
https://time.com/article/2026/03/30/white-house-signals-trump-doesn-t-require-strait-of-hormuz-reopend-to-ready-to-end-iran-war/
A ground invasion of Iran would be a huge mistake
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/5805069-invasion-iran-strategic-catastrophe/
More huffing glue
(bold mine)
The big winner is China.
They are probably the only ones who can actually supply the parts to either fix or make new refineries let alone it faster, better and cheaper.
I could see them building floating ones and send them over basically complete.
Or maybe I should say they will fix up Iran first and then maybe the GCC states.
That people listen to anyone in this administration and the vast majority of US media ( notice how we’ve called it media instead of news for years?) for anything other than dark comedy is beyond me. Listening to Rubio requires a matt Taaibi like drinking game which will get you drunk in minutes. Which maybe is needed to keep some sanity.
Michigan synagogue attack was Hezbollah-inspired act of terrorism, FBI says
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/us/michigan-synagogue-attack-west-bloomfield-fbi-update
Pete Hegseth’s broker looked to buy defense fund before Iran attack
https://www.ft.com/content/744ea8dc-6d93-4fe9-a5e3-36de4f5d06db?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Democrats seen as taking back the House after Republicans quit in numbers not seen since the Great Depression
A record number of House Republicans are not seeking re-election, the most since the Great Depression, with Republicans far outpacing Democrats.
https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/midterm-election-house-republican-retirements-b2948439.html
Trump Floats More War Crimes With Threat to Target ‘Possibly All Desalination Plants’ in Iran
“Attacking civilian infrastructure, and acutely desalination plants, is a war crime,” said former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt. “Will American armed forces accept orders to do so?”
https://www.commondreams.org/news/trump-desalination-plants-iran
UN warns of record hunger, 45 million more at risk, if Iran war continues
The Middle East conflict risks adding a staggering 45 million to acute hunger levels, warns the UN’s World Food Programme.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/17/un-warns-of-record-hunger-45-million-more-at-risk-if-iran-war-continues
Who Struck It Rich in the Markets When Trump Postponed Bombing Iran?
A series of uncannily timed bets on the price of oil and stocks deserves a proper investigation. It’s far from clear that they’ll get one.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-financial-page/who-struck-it-rich-in-the-markets-when-trump-postponed-bombing-iran
Parliament Security Committee approves plan to impose tolls on Strait of Hormuz (Fars News Agency Telegram)
🔹A member of the National Security Commission announced the approval of the Strait of Hormuz Management Plan in this commission.
The key areas of this plan are as follows :
🔹Strait security arrangements
🔹Ship safety
🔹Environmental issues
🔹Financial arrangements and rial toll systems
🔹Ban on Americans and the Zionist regime from passing through
🔹Implementing the sovereign role of Iran and the armed forces
🔹Cooperation of the esteemed country of Oman in the structure of the legal regime
🔹Ban on countries participating in unilateral sanctions against Iran
—-
BP: so the deciding criteria will be “do you participate in sanctions on Iran”.
Interesting that it’s Rials not Yuan, although maybe there’s more detail to come on how this will work in practice (i.e. via Chinese financial system???)
This is big.
The Taco is overwhelming
Trump Claims ‘Regime Change’ in Iran Is Already Complete (NY Times)
What happens if Trump folds and Israel decides to press the attack?
A bigger issue is what if Trump folds and Iran keeps attacking?
I don’t think Israel will stop attacking just because the US stops attacking. But, in the off chance that Israel and the US decide to give peace a chance, Iran will probably stop attacking kinetically. They will, however, continue to the kick the crap out of us economically.
I’m not so sure. Not attacking allows Israel and the US to potentially re-supply (with what who knows…). It would essentially be a ceasefire which Iran does not want.
FWIW: Mearsheimer thinks that Trump can and quite possibly will yank Bibi’s choke collar in favor of avoiding a global economic catastrophe. Not for you and me, mind you, but because of investor class jitters. I sure do hope he’s right.
Earnestly to be hoped for, but the other side gets a vote, too.
Eclipsed over the last month is the ongoing catastrophe in Gaza, and IIRC both Hezbollah and Ansar Allah have expressed solidarity with the people of Gaza.
I can conceive of a scenarios in which the “Axis of Resistance” conditions relaxation of siege on Israel proper on withdrawal to within 1967 borders per USNC resolutions.
re: Germany
Just for the record:
German Parliament´s official records and research service (“Wissenschaftlicher Dienst”) – by establishment view the authority on research issues concerning the Bundestag – has confirmed that the War is illegal under section 2, as it neither poses a case of self-defense, nor was it authorized by the UN-SC.
German-language, 3 pages (but most legal sources are English sites)
https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/analysen/pe6
p.s. funny thing is, they come out always long after the fact – so as to not possibly humiliate the government by accidentally contradicting. So in other words – they are a joke. Just like our highest courts.
Iran’s strike wounded over a dozen U.S. personnel and hit valuable jets in Saudi Arabia
https://www.npr.org/2026/03/30/nx-s1-5765967/trump-iran-israel-lebanon-kharg-island-oil
Kuwaiti loaded oil tanker ablaze in Dubai Port after Iranian attack, no casualties
The attack damaged the vessel and caused a fire onboard, although no casualties were reported, state news agency KUNA said on Tuesday (Mar 31).
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/kuwait-oil-tanker-iran-attack-dubai-port-6026921
Afghanistan Freedom Front Resumes Operations, Reports Deadly Attack In Badakhshan
The Afghanistan Freedom Front has announced it has resumed attacks against the Taliban after halting operations during Ramadan.
https://www.afintl.com/en/202603302556
New Ted Postol on Iran’s nuclear capability:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JtUobr7xGz4
NORAD commander says F-35-type aircraft not needed to defend North America
Gregory M. Guillot made the comments at a U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on March 19.
https://ottawacitizen.com/public-service/defence-watch/norad-f-35-figher-jet-north-america
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on behalf of Donald Trump, expressed regret that the Saudi authorities signed defense agreements with Ukraine without consulting the United States, which had been Saudi Arabia’s main ally.
In response, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman noted that the U.S. had failed to fully protect the Kingdom from Iranian strikes, and therefore Saudi Arabia made a decision that could quickly strengthen its defense capabilities.
https://x.com/MykhailoRohoza/status/2038721522949394750
Saudis playing footsie with Ukraine seems extremely stupid.
1. They are simultaneously alienating both Washington and Moscow (and possibly, Beijing, too, indirectly).
2. The value of what assistance Ukraine can provide Saudis is minimal, but it’ll cost them heaps of cash…when Saudis are potentially facing hard times economically.
Zombies palling around with other zombies, in a race to the dustbin of history?
Madness. Is the Ukraine trying to imitate Israel? They are already losing badly in one war, so they get involved in another?
And what possible support could they provide since everything they get now comes from US or NATO?
Supposedly Ukraine does have an indigenous drone tech industry with hundreds of companies that have popped up recently. They do also have experience dealing with Iranian Shahed drone designs. I imagine they have been advancing anti drone tech that could be cheaper and has been tested in the battlefield for potential buyers like the Saudis. There were articles articles published a few days ago discussing these deals between Ukraine and some of the gulf states.
I dont know why Rubio is crying about this in public. Unless it’s just posturing and theater. Its not like the U.S is providing them any alternatives. And can these Ukrainian companies actually deliver with the commitments they already have with the war at home?
My point still stands – it makes no sense – a country that is literally pulling old men off the street is in a position to build and supply drones in another war?
Since I doubt they make more than they can use for their own needs, it either means the Ukraine government is more concerned with feathering their own nests while they put their populace in a meat grinder, or the war is truly lost and it’s now every man for themself.
Pete Hegseth’s broker attempted to make defense investments before Iran war: Financial Times (CNBC)
A broker for U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sought to make a large investment in major defense companies in the lead up to the Iran war, according to the Financial Times. The Pentagon has denied the report.
The Financial Times reported Tuesday that Hegseth’s broker at banking giant Morgan Stanley contacted BlackRock in February about making a multimillion-dollar investment in its iShares Defense Industrials Active ETF.
The ETF, which has about $3.1 billion in assets, counts companies such as RTX Corp, — formerly known as Raytheon — Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman among its largest holdings, Blackrock data showed.
The Defense Industrials Active ETF has lost 12.4% in the past one month, about the time when the Iran war started, according to LSEG data.
The FT also said that the investment discussed by Hegseth’s broker did not ultimately go ahead as the fund was not yet available for Morgan Stanley clients to buy at the time. It was also not known if the broker had found another defense-related investment.
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Original FT article is not archived yet
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I like that Hegseth tried to do some corruption, failed, and that the investment he wanted went down 12.4% anyway.
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“Boys, you are fighting for Jesus Christ our Lord, and my portfolio”
I wonder if US MICs can expect to make that much money out of this war, given the dismal showing of their wares…
That was my thought for a possible explanation of the decline in the ETF share price. Some smart investors realized that another war would be bad for the reputation of US defense products and the prospects for overseas sales from defense corporations.
“Boys, you are fighting for Jesus Christ our Lord, and my portfolio”
Bumper sticker that, your own portfolio will improve, lol.
The FT article archived:
https://archive.ph/auz8H
I rarely find myself in agreement with Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, but his comments on Trump’s chances of getting Iran’s enriched uranium are spot on: the operation would be fiendishly difficult anyway, and now Iran’s been tipped off, basically dooming it to utter failure.
“There’s a dangerous whiff of theatre about President Trump’s talk of seizing Iran’s uranium. If it’s not a ruse, then it’s a profound misunderstanding of how Special Forces operations actually work.
You do not broadcast intent. Not ever …
There is a time to signal intent, a time to apply pressure, and a time to remain silent. Confusing those moments is not just poor strategy, it is dangerous.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/03/30/trump-us-special-forces-iran-operation-delta-seals/