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Iran War Widens as Iran Attacks Saudi Oil Infrastructure, Israel and Hezbollah Exchange Strikes

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[This post launched before complete because too much is happening. But there is a lot of good material here, so don’t shy away from commenting. I will keep revising and updating through 8:00 AM EST so please refresh your browsers and scan again as of then if you checked in before that]

In addition to providing updates on the Iran war as best we can given the thick informational fog, we will also recalibrate a few of the sightings from earlier posts.

We had thought to invoke the saying from Dune, “The power to destroy a thing is the absolute control over it, before we saw the reports on Twitter of Iran strikes on Saudi oil assets.

Many commentators have made ritual incantations that the US and Israel are more powerful countries than Iran. But Iran is putting its dagger to the throat to enough of the world’s critical oil and LNG supplies so as to have the potential to impair delivery for long enough to create cascading economic effects. Two can play at economic warfare.

Confirmation and a hot take from Middle East Eye:

Two drones targeted Saudi Arabia’s Aramco refinery in Ras Tanura on Monday, the defence ministry said.

Turki al-Maliki, the ministry’s spokesperson, told Al Arabiya that both drones were intercepted.

He said a fire at the refinery was caused by debris from the interception and confirmed there were no civilian injuries.

Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry said the limited fire was under control and had no impact on oil supplies. The refinery was shut down as a precaution.

The Ras Tanura complex, located on the kingdom’s eastern coast, houses one of the Middle East’s largest refineries, with a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day, according to AFP.

Mind you, these were just drone strikes. This action seems intended as yet another indication of what could be on the Iran escalation menu, in keeping with observations made by Professor Sayed Marandi to Glenn Diesen that we highlighted yesterday.

We hate to differ with Alexander Mercouris, who contends that oil refineries are huge and sturdy complexes, often with redundancy, and therefore are pretty attack and damage resistant. He argues that the very limited effect that Ukraine attempts on Russian refineries prove his point.

I beg to differ. The Houthis back in 2019 were able to ent Saudi output for two months from a single attack. Iran’s best missiles are vastly more formidable now than anything the Houthis had then. From CSIS in September 2019 in Attack on Saudi Oil Infrastructure: We May Have Dodged a Bullet, at Least for Now:

This weekend’s attack on Saudi oil facilities in Khurais and Abqaiq represents the single largest daily oil supply disruption in history—larger than the maximum daily output loss resulting from the Iranian Revolution, the invasion of Iraq, the Venezuelan oil strike of 2002-2003, or any of the Gulf coast hurricanes and almost twice as large as the combined outages produced by U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran. The attacks targeted two critical Saudi facilities: one of the nation’s largest producing fields, Khurais, and the crown jewel of the Saudi oil system, the massive stabilization and processing facility at Abqaiq. The total supply loss from taking these facilities offline amounted to some 5.7 million barrels per day (b/d) in oil output—more than half of Saudi Arabia’s recent output and about 6 percent of global supply—as well as 2 billion cubic feet per day of associated gas….

Late Tuesday afternoon, Saudi oil minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman and Aramco president Amin Nasser delivered a much-anticipated recovery update. Consistent with the details provided above, the officials announced that 50 percent (2.8 million b/d) of the weekend’s production loss was restored, presumably bringing current Saudi output to somewhere between 7 and 7.5 million b/d, and that Saudi Arabia’s production capacity would return to 11 million b/d by the end of September and 12 million b/d in November.

So as I interpret this, the Saudis suffered an expected two-week oil output loss of one-half the immediate reduction of 6% of global supply, or 3% and a 0.5% reduction for two months. Perhaps a reader can comment on how much of total oil shipments come from Saudi Arabia now.

In addition, Iran, if it decides to escalate attacks on oil assets in the region, would be well advised to crib from the Russia playbook with its Ukraine energy grid attacks. Ukraine has sought and failed to deliver a consequential blow to Russia with impressive-looking refinery hits. But showy blows are still helpful to Ukraine’s heavily PR oriented strategy, of showing its Western backers that it can still hurt Russia.

Iran may not want or need to wreck oil infrastructure in the region at scale. It could instead launch regular much smaller attacks that still interrupt production, force repairs, and keep traders and investors nervous with the result that they assign a risk premium to oil. Russia initially used its grid to deplete Ukraine’s air defenses; note the the Saudis had to marshal some sort of air defense assets to parry this attack.

Another potentially complicating factor for Riyadh is that Saudi oil workers are Shia. What if there is a fatwa and the Shia are told not to turn up at work? Or alternatively, they go passive aggressive and make the repairs slowly and badly?

There are more apocalyptic views of where Iran could go in its oilfield escalation, but a few notches up the ladder, say using more potent missiles when air defenses across the region are thinned, plus Mr. Market’s tizzy, could more than make the point:

Admittedly, the red flag of revenge is flying over the main mosque in Tehran:

That flag also went up at the start of the 12 Day War. But Iranians are of the “revenge is a dish best served cold” mode of operation.

As for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Jeff W pointed to a presentation at What’s Going on With Shipping? His key point is that Iran has actually not formally closed the Strait but largely achieved that result from the action of tanker owners and insurers.

Key extracts from host Sal Mercogliano’s discussion:

What is happening right now is the ocean carriers, those who operate ships, largely tankers, but there’s also other commercial ships that go in and out of here, have decided to basically sit back and wait a minute and let’s see what happens between the US, Israel, and Iran. The other issue here, and the important one to understand, is war risk insurance. So, everything in shipping is geared to insurance. I can’t say this enough. Uh money is what makes this industry go around and without insurance ships are not going to take the risk.

Shipping is all about minimizing your risk and right now if a ship sails through the straits of Hormuz and gets hit by a missile, a drone or something like that, you need war risk. War risk does not cover basically if you get hit by a missile or drone. You are not covered if you just have your standard what’s called PNI protection and indemnity insurance which covers the cargo or your H&M hull and machinery which covers the ship..

Mercogliano argues that Iran is hurt most by closure of the Strait and adds:

Now UAE and Saudi Arabia have a little bit flexibility here and they have pipelines that come out of the area but Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait do not. They have to get out of this area and the same with Iran.

Mercogliano later discusses in detail how much higher the war risk insurance premiums might go, how there were 450 tankers lost in 1980 to 1988 during the tanker wars with no closure of the Strait, and the implications of the general shortage of tanker capacity due to some operating as part of the Russian “shadow fleet”.

This image from Marine Traffic is as of 6:25 AM EST:

And with advanced economies, particularly the US, as well as China, mired in high levels of potentially-crisis-causing private debt, and China already in deflation, an additional shock of high energy price and even availability risks a severe economic downturn, which could ripple powerfully into frothy financial markets as fast-footed traders sell to preserve gains. Admittedly, of the big economies, Europe which is already suffering economically due to the self-inflicted harm of Russian energy sanctions, would presumably take the biggest hits. But the entire global economy would take damage under a scenario of markedly more expensive oil and LNG, and even shortages. That means China too, since it would see lower exports in a global recession.

On the kinetic war, commentators who ritually describe the US as having the world’s most powerful military, then effectively concede that the US through its overcommitments, particularly pouring offensive and defensive missiles into the Ukraine burn pit, its preference for private-sector-enriching, fussy kit, and having greatly skinnied down its military after the collapse of the USSR, is actually close to spent as it has taken on an Iran that it looks to have badly underestimated.

Alon Mizrahi describes how he sees Iran prosecuting the war. His assessment is similar to that of Trita Parsi of Responsible Statecraft, which we featured yesterday:

Please click through for his entire tweet, but the essential part:

Iran firing at Israel nonstop (millions have spent the last 24 hours mostly in shelters, and the economy will be at a complete standstill for the foreseeable future), and is applying a clear tactic of saturating Israeli air defences and triggering an interceptor crises. If I’m reading them right, their initial response is designed to remove the immediate threat from US assets in the region, which they have been doing brilliantly, and, simultaneously, exhausting Israeli and Western air defences, which will compel the US and Israel to ask for a ceasefire…

But this is only the opening phase, and, as always with Iran, great methodicity is carefully applied….

They are picking apart Israel’s infrastructure and economy. In 10 days, the country will begin to crack. Maybe even sooner.

The current headline at the BBC live blog (as of 7:00 AM EST) speaks volumes:

More quick updates. The EU is trying to get out of its underwear to enter the fray. The headline of Politico’s European morning newsletter: E3 warns Iran: We’re ready to hit back. From its text:

How will Brussels respond? European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will convene an emergency meeting of European commissioners today, after a Sunday of frantic meetings. With ministers from the EU’s 27 members failing to see eye to eye on how to respond to the crisis, it’s now up to the Commission to pull together a coherent foreign policy response and ensure the bloc speaks with one voice….

Assertive defense: Europe’s largest military powers warned Iran late Sunday they were ready to take “defensive action” to destroy Iran’s ability to fire missiles and drones “at their source” unless Tehran stops its “indiscriminate attacks.” The warning from the E3 powers — France, Germany and the U.K. — doesn’t bring those countries directly into the U.S.-Israeli war, but it does suggest they’re willing to take action against a regime seriously weakened by the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday.

French build-up: The statement came as France moved to bolster its military presence in the Middle East after an Iranian strike hit a French base in the United Arab Emirates, POLITICO’s Laura Kayali reports.

And in London … U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned Iran to “stop these reckless attacks immediately.” Britain has told the U.S. it can use the Diego Garcia military base on the Chagos Islands to launch air strikes — something Starmer had previously been unwilling to do, much to Trump’s dismay (and outrage).

EU, too: A senior EU official told journalists Sunday that the bloc’s Operation Aspides — a naval operation to guard commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Yemen — will be reinforced by two naval vessels provided by France. That will bring the total number participating in the mission to five, including French, Italian and Greek vessels.

Hands tied: There’s also a discussion underway about updating Aspides’ restrictive rules of engagement, said the official, who was granted anonymity to discuss non-public exchanges between foreign ministers during an extraordinary meeting on Sunday. (An EU diplomat confirmed the deployment of additional ships to Operation Aspides but not their number. A French official didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment.

Israel attacked Lebanon shortly before this war started. Hezbollah has responded:

Aljazeera reported that Israel attacked Beirut after the Hezbollah strike. More from the BBC:

The entry of Hezbollah in the conflict threatens to reopen a devastating year-long war between Israel and the Lebanese group which ended in a ceasefire 15 months ago.

Hezbollah – a Shia Islamist organisation – is one of the most powerful of the armed groups across the region which are loyal to Iran. The Islamic republic has spent billions of dollars funding, training and equipping it to oppose Israel for decades.

Hezbollah and Israel have repeatedly attacked one another since the group was formed in the 1980s. They fought a deadly war in 2006, and again in 2023-24, triggered by Hezbollah rocketing Israeli positions in support of Palestinians a day after Hamas’s deadly attack on Israel on 7 October and the start of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza.

During the last war with Hezbollah, Israeli attacks killed about 4,000 people in Lebanon and left more than 1.2 million displaced, Lebanon said. Israeli authorities said more than 80 of its soldiers and 47 of its civilians were killed.

Hezbollah was significantly weakened in the war and its firepower degraded. As part of the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, it agreed to withdraw extensively from southern Lebanon, although Israel has continued to attack Hezbollah targets which it says pose a threat.

The group’s rocket and drone attack on Monday and the Israeli response puts the ceasefire in jeopardy, leaving the populations of Lebanon and northern Israel anxiously wondering if the renewed hostilities will be limited or spiral once again into all-out war.

The US also lost fighter F-15 fighter jets in Kuwait:

From Aljazeera:

Three US fighter jets mistakenly shot down by Kuwaiti air defence: CENTCOM

The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) has said that three US F-15E Strike Eagles were “mistakenly been shot down” by Kuwaiti air defence on Sunday.

“All six aircrew ejected safely, have been safely recovered, and are in stable condition. Kuwait has acknowledged this incident, and we are grateful for the efforts of the Kuwaiti defense forces and their support in this ongoing operation,” the statement published on X said.

“The cause of the incident is under investigation. Additional information will be released as it becomes available,” it added.

More detail on the F-15s from Janta Ka reporter (he usefully has long clips of public statements):

We have not given any detail on financial market action. I intend to provide that in comments as germane after US markets open. Gold has moved to over $5,300 but the dollar is also up a smidge.

UPDATE 7:45 AM. Adding commentary that I was too time pressed to include earlier:

Note that Ritter argued long-form on Danny Haiphong (with quotes from news) that Khameni intended to be martyred and was not about to hide in a bunker and worse, have family members successfully targeted by Israel (murdering relatives is one of their specialities), enabling him to be depicted as a coward. One has to include the rest of the leadership decided to follow his example of conducting their affairs on a normal basis. CNN reports that Ali Larijani, who ran Iran response in the 12 Day War, is one of the key officials now in charge. One has to think that some critical figures did not participate in meetings to preserve decision-making capability.

Mind you, not clear how long this halt will be. Readers may have an idea as to how robust LNG facilities are compared to oil refineries:

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350 comments

  1. replikante

    It’s quite clear what the US-Israel strategy is.
    Their armies are thought, built and prepared for short wars. They can launch massive attacks assesting huge losses to their opponents but during short periods of time while the Iranian army is exactly the opposite. It’s built to be able to keep a fight for a long time (probably consequence of the Iran-Iraq war) but it cannot handle properly massive and short attacks.

    So the US-Israel strategy is, obviously, to hit Iran with a massive attack like the one we have seen and then ask (or even beg) for a peace deal or a ceasefire (in fact, there are news that Trump through backchannels has already ask for it, like he did in the 12-day war), to only try again another massive attack in a 6-month or so period time until they crash the Iranian regime (to completely obliterate and balkanize the country).
    And the only strategy that the Iranian army can follow to try to stop this is to bring the war to their terms, which means to have a long war including to have the Hormuz Starit closed for a long period of time. Bring an atrittion war, same as Russia has done in Ukraine, something the west armies are not up to.

    If the Iranian goverment accepts now or in the following days a ceasefire, US-Israel would have achieved a huge win and in a very short time (probably just after the midterm elections) they would launch another massive attack. And both Trump and Netanyahu would be selling this operation to their followers and to the whole world as a huge win (and rightly so).
    If the Iranian army doesn’t infringe big losses to the US and Israeli armies and big pains to their societies both Trump and Netanyahu (and specially Trump to his MAGA followers) would be saying that this wasn’t a war, just a limited militar operation and a very successful one.

    The only thing the Iranian army can do to break this dynamics of masive attacks and immediate ceasefires until regime change, is to prolong the war. They have to forget about massive streaks (as they are seemingly doing now) to opt for a slow but continued hitting of their targets and these include both Israeli territory and the US assets in the region.

    The Israeli population is very used to short periods of war, is very used to have to go to their prepared shelters for a couple of nights but is not used to a prolonged war and its consequences. The Iranian army should hit the israeli infrastructure like their thermal power plants (5-6 of those accomplish for about 80% of the israeli electric generation capacity, destroy them and the whole grid would fall leaving the whole country without electricity), hit their water plants and keep waving small but continued attacks with their consequents sirens all over the country for 1, 2, 3 months.
    Keep waving attacks on the US bases in the Gulf and force the US army to keep sending home coffins month after month. Mantain the Hormuz Strait closed for months forcing the oil prices to go throug the roof which would generate an unacceptable inflation for the US population (and for the whole world).

    And only then should the Iranian goverment offer negotiations. If they don’t infringe massive pain on the US and israeli societies and continued harm on their militaries, US-Israel is going to keep their strategy of massive attacks and immediate ceasefires until they succeed in getting the regime change they want to then break and balkanize the country.

    1. vao

      “The Iranian army should hit the israeli infrastructure like their thermal power plants […] hit their water plants […]”

      A few problems here:

      1) Israel can do the same to civilian infrastructure in Iran. In fact, Israelis love doing that to enemies who resist and fight back — see Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen.

      2) Iran’s infrastructure is at least as vulnerable as Israel’s, and probably more fragile (sanctions and mismanagement have taken their toll). In particular, water supply has been in a dire state for quite some time now; it would probably not take much to cause a massive humanitarian crisis by selectively destroying some of its elements.

      3) If they get the feeling they are going under, zionists are demented enough to start pelting Iran with atomic bombs. You know, Amalek and all that.

      1. Yves Smith Post author

        I don’t mean to seem harsh, but Israel is a country that not merely committed genocide on a mass scale in Gaza and RELISHES torturing Palestinians. Oh, and never honors ceasefires. You seriously act as if they have any “rule of war” compunctions? Its leaders have demonstrated that they are monsters.

        Oh, and Israel martyred General Solemani when on a diplomatic mission in Iraq, which = he should have been safe, and also murdered Hamas negotiators in Doha.

        Honestly, you act as if Israel is deserving of any consideration? Seriously? They have repeatedly made clear they have no limits on their horrific behavior.

        Iran said BEFORE the 12 Day War that Israel civilian infrastructure was on the menu if Israel hit Iran again.

        1. Kilgore Trout

          Yves, I think it was the US and Trump who ordered the drone strike on General Soleimani. Likely at the request/demand of the Israelis? Thanks for the continuing coverage of this war. It is indispensable.

          1. Yves Smith Post author

            That is correct, thanks for pointing out my error. But Trump 1.0 almost certainly was acting at Israeli instigation. I don’t see Trump as having agency with respect to Israel now and probably not then. In fact, upon reflection, the Solemani assassination may have been (among other things) to curry favor with the Miriam Adelsons of the world who have rewarded him bigly.

        2. replikante

          That’s right. And this war, the war that US-Israel began last June and they are continuing now (and they will continue in the future until they can obtain their goal, the regime change and subsequent balkanization of the country), it’s an existencial war for Iran, no more no less.

          And while I can agree that taking out the water plants is a very harsh step (I would consider it as the last step in an escalatory war), the targetting of the power plants would be one of my firsts. It’s a legit military target, the israeli army cannot function without electricity. They need it for mantain and repair their aircafts, they need it to keep their radars functioning, etc., etc., etc.

          The Iranian army also needs electricity for its functioning but Iran is a huge country (unlike Israel) and it would be almost impossible for the israeli army to take out the whole grid, there are countless power plants. But it would be, instead, quite easy for the iranian army to take out the whole israeli grid.

          Destroying just 6 power plants (which capacity amount to almost 90% of the whole electricity generation capacity of Israel), the whole grid would fall.

            1. Old Jake

              Plus Iran has the population, resources (and friends – China in particular) and size to endure some infrastructure outages. Israel does not have the resources, population in particular. In a battle of endurance my gut tells me Israel becomes a nonentity. Or is that wishful thinking? Would Iran’s religious and moral values permit them to go that far? If Israel throws nukes, does Pakistan respond with like? Samson died.

        3. chris

          The hardest part about all this currently, besides the friends and family I’m waiting to hear about becoming involved on the US side, is having to keep my mask firmly in place while business associates and neighbors have let theirs slip. I’m not allowed to say things that acknowledge the humanity of the Iranians and the idiocy of my country. But all my Zionist colleagues and neighbors can display their happy zeal that this war has finally started.

          I do not understand the madness driving this. It is worse than in Ukraine. For example, in 2023 and 2024, VoxEU and others did polling for the Ukrainian society in the oblasts that were firmly controlled by Kiev, and 30% or more of respondents would agree with the statement that “Ukraine has a naughtzi problem.” You can only imagine how those results would have shifted if Crimea and the Donbass had been included in the polling sample.

          But Israel? In repeated polls something like 80% of the population agrees with Bibi’s approach to these conflicts and another 12% believe he isn’t going far enough. I do not understand why the people are so in love with death. A poll taken last year that included biblical references showed similar results.

          What has happened that these people want to murder everyone who surrounds them? Antisemitism is real. Jewish people are threatened in other countries. But this war and all the conflicts before it… this is going to permanently affect relations between Israel and the entire world. If the goal of these conflicts is safety for the Jewish people surely they can see how these decisions go in the opposite direction?

          2. Lee

            Having worked in a business where American Zionists were thick on the ground, occupied positions of power, and self-censoring was essential to maintaining my livelihood at the time, you have my profoundest sympathies.

      2. vidimi

        they just hit a girls’ school killing 180 children.

        Israel is also vulnerable on the ground. They are surrounded by hostile native populations who might overrun them if they sense a weakness. All it takes is a small breakthrough by one faction to inspire action. Breakout from Gaza, the West Bank, invasion by Hisbollah, fall of Jordan,…

        1. Alex Cox

          And weirdly Mercouris insists this atrocity must have been an accident. This after the deliberate tageting of schools & hospitals in Gaza.

          I don’t understand the Duran boys’ apparent ignorance of the Gazan genocide.

          1. ValerieinAustralia

            I lost interest in them a long time ago. Young Alex was blindly in love with Trump for the longest time – not that I think Biden was a prize – but it was the disinterest in the Gazan Genocide that got me. I wonder if they, like Taibbi, are looking at this podcasting business from more of a commercial perspective and haven’t wanted to offend a chunk of their supporter base. And while Gonzalo Lira could be obnoxious, he really promoted them on his podcast. I found them very disloyal for not saying much about his kidnapping/arrest – unlike Brian Berletic. Playing it safe again? Maybe, but hard to respect from my point of view.

      3. rob

        Iran might not have water, but they have missiles. And I’m guessing they figure they better use them or lose them.
        I did see some video of an israeli water plant that was already hit…( if the video was real)
        The israeli’s live in a tiny country, surrounded by people who they have been attacking for decades…. It is time for some payback…l They ought to get that which they deserve.

      4. Al

        I’m not sure Israel will use atomics, unless they are planning to jump ship and set up Israel 2.0 somewhere else.

        Iran is a big country. Yeah they could cause destruction in big cities but seems Iran has decentralized their military defense so they would continue to hit back. And Iranians can take more pain than the Israelis.

        Also what happens afterwards? Every country in the region will be lining up to get their own nukes and delivery systems.

        Also Shias have a long memory. They haven’t forgotten Imam Ali and the martyrdom of his sons and that was hundreds of years ago. You think they’ll forget a nuke killing millions. Israel and by extension anyone connected to them would be considered an eternal enemy by Shias (and many Sunnis) worldwide.

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          And Iran famously has a dead hand mechanism. Attack with a nuke and they fire at pre-set targets, which is pretty sure to completely destroy Israel.

        2. Lee

          “I’m not sure Israel will use atomics, unless they are planning to jump ship and set up Israel 2.0 somewhere else.”

          Saudi king, Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud, in his 1945 meeting with FDR had the right idea, that Bavaria would have been the more just and morally apt choice for a Jewish homeland. Perhaps it’s not too late.

            1. Lee

              Brookings Institute

              The substance of this meeting on the Quincy was dominated by a disagreement over the future of Palestine: FDR argued for a Jewish state, and Ibn Saud protested that the Jews should get their state in Bavaria.

              FDR Foudation

              . With Ibn Saud he was at his very best.” Roosevelt said that he felt “a personal responsibility” for the Jewish victims of the Holocaust who had suffered “indescribable horrors at the hands of the Nazis: eviction, destruction of their homes, torture, and mass murder” and asked the king for his advice. The king replied that the Allies as victors should give the Jews and “their descendants the choicest lands and homes of the Germans who had oppressed them.” Roosevelt responded that the Jews had a deep desire to settle in Palestine and were fearful of remaining in Germany. The king said he did not doubt that the Jews did not trust the Germans, but “surely the Allies will destroy Nazi power forever and in their victory will be strong enough to protect Nazi victims. If the Allies do not expect firmly to control future German policy, why fight this costly war?” He lectured the president on the long history of animosity between Arabs and Jews.

              1. Huey

                Wow. So decades of instability and a whole genocide could’ve been avoided, if not for the designs of a miniscule minority.

            2. Yves Smith Post author

              A Zionist former friend said Turkiye had offered land for a Jewish state, and even volunteered that it might have been a mistake to turn that down.

          2. Mike Elwin

            Whether it’s true or not, it certainly would have been more just. Heck, giving them half of Germany would have been more just.

        3. ValerieinAustralia

          I understand that the Israeli’s have already picked out Patagonia as their Plan B. I wonder how that fits in their God gave us this Promised Land in Palestine meme.

          1. Acacia

            … have already picked out Patagonia as their Plan B

            Hmm. Wasn’t the old joke that Hitler is “alive and well and living in Argentina”…?

      5. KD

        Israel depends on a handful of water desalination plants for fresh water. Iran does not.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_supply_and_sanitation_in_Israel

        The issue is scale. Yes, Israel can tit-for-tat everything Iran does, even scale up its retaliation, but at the end of the day, Israel is a small country with a small population located in a desert with only a couple big cities that requires massive infrastructure to make habitable for that small population.

        I would not be surprised if Israel ends up going nuclear. . . but they have the problem of “so what?” once they do so. They glass over some cities in Iran–people move–and they run out of nukes, and depending on how much capacity Iran has, Israel ends up looking like Gaza from conventional strikes. [It is highly unlikely that the “bomb” actually was the cause of the Japanese surrender, it was probably Stalin taking Manchuria and moving down island chains. In fact, I believe some of the causality counts on the firebombing of cities was higher than the atomic bomb. ]

        The point of all this shit is supposed to be the survival of your people, which Israel appears to have lost sight of. . .

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          There are credible accounts that Japan had been suing for peace via Switzerland since IIRC April 1945. We dropped the bombs for the benefit of the USSR.

          1. Yalt

            On this I recommend Gar Alperovitz, The Decision to Use the Atomic Bomb. Much interesting information in there on the later construction of the myth of the bomb’s necessity.

            My copy isn’t here, unfortunately, but my memory is that it was the Swedes, not the Swiss, who were the interlocutors.

            1. Wisker

              Also Tsuyoshi Hasegawa who concluded the same 10 years later from a famously thorough investigation of US, Soviet, and Japanese archives. The Japanese war council notes were very illuminating on the subject.

          2. motorslug

            …and the benefit of the US atomic energy sector. They wanted ‘field knowledge’ of the effects of radiation in a real world scenario. Truman refused Teller’s request to drop one in Tokyo Bay to scare all.

        2. The Rev Kev

          Don’t forget those drifting clouds of radioactive that will spread past Iran’s borders. No country will be pleased about that. And no country will go along with ‘we were just defending ourselves’ – and charges of antisemitism if you disagree will not cut it.

          1. Huey

            I’m no longer impressed by the Olympic-level gymnastics of those in power.

            Everything bad will surely be fault of Iran/Russia or China – I can hear it already. Poor, little Israel had no choice but to drive the human race to extinction. The least we can do for them is to silence any ‘anti-semitic propagandaists’ saying otherwise.

      6. Paul Jurczak

        Iran has a capability to respond with “dirty bomb” to Israel’s nuclear attack. They have plenty of radioactive material to enhance their ballistic missiles with. The scheme will work even better if the missile is intercepted in the terminal phase, creating even larger contaminated area. Mass exodus would ensue.

        1. Expat2uruguay

          It’s strange to imagine that the
          Holy Land for religions on all sides could become a “no man’s land”.

          An ominous event fraught with meaning for alarge section of the spiritually-oriented portion of humanity… I can’t imagine what my Pentecostal Pastor would say.

        2. Yves Smith Post author

          I looked at dirty bombs in depth after 9/11. They are VERY VERY lousy weapons. The use of very heavy radioactive material means very little explosive force. Probable best use case is a truck bomb at a place like Grand Terminal.

    2. Nap

      The us hasn’t fought a “war” since 1945.
      It attacks, invades, occupies and destroys smaller weaker countries in order to install puppet regimes and seize their resources.
      It is a cowardly nation run by ignorant, incompetent, arrogant people who rank among history’s worst criminals.

    3. Ian

      Your prediction depends on the assumption that Israel won’t use nuclear weapons on Iran. I’m not sure this assumption is correct.

      2. nippersdad

        During the twelve day war, Pakistan warned Israel that were they to use nuclear weapons on Iran they would then target Israel. I have to wonder if that is not still applicable, in which case the Israelis would have to determine just how lucky they are feeling after all that has gone down since then.

        1. Yalt

          Israel->Iran
          Pakistan->Israel
          …and then?

          Surely this has all been wargamed many times; does anyone know what the results have been?

          My gut has always told me that any use against civilians would escalate immediately and we’d have everyone launching whatever they have. But that’s just one gut and surely others know better. Maybe I’m conditioned by the Ellsberg revelation that US plans for use against the USSR always included use against China as well, whether they were involved in the conflict or not. That kind of thinking throughout the chain would multiply in a hurry.

          1. .Tom

            Your schema is a bit misleading. IS and US are fighting together as something close to one united thing. So there can be no IS nuclear assault on IR. It would de facto be IS/US nuclear assault on IR.

            1. Expat2uruguay

              But the nuclear assault on IS would be limited to “abroad” and the US would be able to continue causing trouble, I just hope I’m far enough away!! (From both threats!)

  2. The Rev Kev

    It’s easy to understand why Iran is going all out in this war. Trump was in office only six months when he attacked Iran in the middle of negotiations but he failed to win. Six months later he is having another go at them right now, again in the middle of negotiations. Assuming that Trump serves out his full term, that means that he may go after them another five times. Yeah, no. Iran has had enough of this and is taking a leaf from the Russian playbook. The Russians will not end the war in the Ukraine until root causes have been addressed and never again will there be another powerful Ukrainian army to threaten them. So the same with the Iranians and they want all sanctions lifted and a new security architecture be made out for the Middle East. And if Israel and the US refuse? Well, fire is catching and the Iranians will tell them both-

    ‘If we burn, you burn with us.’

    1. hk

      I am now wondering if the Iranian terms on Israel will mirror those of the Russian on Ukraine–I kinda floated this not-very-seriously, but, the way things are going, it does not seem unreasonable that Iran will demand denuclearization, neutralization, and denazification of Israel (the last being especially ironic, but highly applicable) soonish the way things are going now–oh, and the total withdrawal of US assets from the region and cutting off of support for US proxies and terrorist organizations.

      It will be a while before things get “real,” but, unlike Ukraine, Israel doesn’t have years.

      1. Huey

        Agreed. If the ongoing events lead to a surrender from Israel, at least, Iran needs to make sure their ability to regroup and rearm is removed, otherwise they won’t be able to breathe easy. As has been said, this was basically Israel’s demand, except Iran doesn’t have a comparable history of sudden, unilateral aggression.

      2. mrsyk

        Good morning. “It will be awhile…”, maybe, maybe not. If things are going as poorly for team z as it appears I would expect nukes and soon, before the accumulated losses make nukes moot.
        I hope I am wrong.

      3. NN Cassandra

        Terms of Iranian peace deal:

        – US withdraws all its military from Middle East.
        – US stops all military/money support to Israel.
        – End of Gaza blockade and genocide.

        And let Trump & Zionist explain to US public why they can’t accept that and instead America must fight for the privilege of propping up Israel.

        1. hk

          I don’t see an end of this conflict without Israeli nukes making an appearance, in some form. If they actually try to use it, well, then, we’d be truly at the Armageddon. Even if they do not, I don’t see the eventual peace terms not including Israeli denuclearization.

            1. hk

              The question is whether the Israelis are dumb enough to immolate themselves for Mike Huckabee and Lindsey Graham?

            2. motorslug

              Yeah, so they can then either convert or eliminate the little hats.
              Hilariously, sadly ironic.

            3. ArvidMartensen

              I have heard that the US Christians zionists want the apocalypse because they will go to heaven and everyone one else will burn, including jews

              And the jewish zionists want the apocalypse because they will go to heaven and everyone else will burn, including christians

              If this isn’t an example of strange bedfellows, I don’t know what is

            4. chris

              You’re correct. Jesus can’t come home unless Israel is destroyed, so there has to be an Israel to destroy later. At the approved time.

              Sheer madness!!!

        2. Lefty Godot

          Add: force Israel into the Non-Proliferation Treaty with inspections of its nuclear facilities on a regular basis. Realistically, though, I don’t see how there can be any peace deal when Israel, the US, and its European stooges won’t be satisfied with anything other than the breakup of Iran.

      4. What? No!

        I so agree with this. The US is not agreement capable and now not negotiation capable. You just can’t go there, it leaves nothing that can be trusted for moving forward or resolving the situation. So now Iran’s only path is to create the facts on the ground. They will have to remove all the US bases; Israel will have to shed most of its armed forces and won’t be allowed to have nukes. Whether Iran get’s more than that, we’ll have to see.

        The US and Israel aren’t going to be very inspired to go that route, so it will be up to Iran (with a little help from their friends) to see if they can really go the distance.

      5. thoughtfulperson

        This sounds like a plan that could work but not one the US/IS will agree to (they will go nuclear first).

        Ww3 seems more likely, US/IS/EU vs IR/Russia/China. Most of the northern hemisphere will quickly become unliveable with the Southern following in a year or two.

        On the plus side the collapse of civilization may slow climate change a bit…

        Still the greatest disaster of all time.

    2. Wisker

      Thankfully Iran is not taking a note from the Russian playbook in the inept use of deterrence. Between poor planning for the Ukraine war and (I’d say) poor policy, Russia invited escalation and frittered away most of its deterrent potential. Iran was likewise measured in its response during the ’12 Day War’ last summer. They have learned what Russia has not. As you say, they are clearly aiming to course-correct this time around.

      That being said, I think we are far from an “all out” war by any of the parties. As others have pointed out above, the probable final step by Iran would be to make Israel temporarily unlivable by hitting power and water infrastructure, with its own fragile civil infrastructure attacked in return. Israel’s final step is to use nukes and it will probably threaten to do so before this war is over, privately if not publicly. If Israel had NPP’s, Iran’s last resort would be to strike those, but AFAICT Israel only has a small research plant at Dimona. Not clear what the US red line is, but I imagine ‘our’ tolerance for escalation is lower than Israel or Iran’s.

      My hunch is that in an attempt to establish deterrence, Iran will fight at as long as it takes to deplete the interceptor pool, and then continue for at least some days after that to make the threat clear. Last June it stopped before that point. Whether this will involve depleting the US naval interceptor pool and attacking the fleet, or whether it will be limited to attacking Israel, or the bases, or Gulf State infrastructure, who knows? Interceptor depletion for those targets is happening at different rates of course.

      If it comes to that, Iran’s next steps would probably be extreme restraint or negotiations as Israel would be considering nukes at that point.

      1. ArvidMartensen

        The huge downside of making Israel unlivable is that the Israelis will become refugees in other countries, taking their hellish, genocidal and racist tendencies with them and infecting others.

  3. dandyandy

    UK’s own Woody went on air last night about allowing the US to launch “defensive” strikes against Iran using UK resources. Around the same time, reports came in that Akrotiri experienced an involuntary combustion event.

    While the ~480m of Europeans are facing a deteriorating living conditions, Kier and his EU friends are taking Europe into Israel’s war though the back door.

  4. Louis Fyne

    I feel like I’m watching the livestream from Klendathu…

    Disgruntled people are everywhere, and it looks like Iran has immpecable human intelligence from people who want to stick it to their local monarchy.

    Eg, this before/after sat. photo of the main US base in Kuwait. IRGCwas awfully interested in 2 particular hangars, assuming command and control nodes?

    hithttps://x.com/jacksonhinklle/status/2028432882113315083

  5. raspberry jam

    Iran struck Netanyahu’s office in Be’ersheeba

    In a statement carried by Iranian media, the IRGC said that during the 10th wave of Operation ‘True Promise 4’, it targeted the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as well as the location of the commander of the Israeli air force. “The fate of the Israeli prime minister is unknown,” the IRGC added.

    incredible trolling in the statement, bravo

      1. raspberry jam

        damn, they missed

        At site of Iranian missile attack, Netanyahu says Israel ‘bringing’ freedom to Iranians, acting ‘for the sake of humanity’

        Ah, how noble. Surely some inspirational quotes?

        Netanyahu concludes by invoking a biblical commandment traditionally recited ahead of Purim: “We read in this week’s Torah portion, ‘Remember what Amalek did to you.’ We remember, and we act,” he says, referring to the ancient Israelites’ archetypal enemy, which in Jewish tradition has come to symbolize those who seek the Jewish people’s destruction in every generation.

    2. Ben Panga

      Tiny note: the text and quote says “targeted” whereas the headline says “struck”. I don’t read Farsi, and don’t have access to the original but:

      This same language discrepancy caused a lot of reports that the US aircraft carrier was hit on Saturday when it hadn’t been. In that case the translated quote on Al Mayadeen also used the word “targeted”.

    3. JohnW

      Did Netanyahu really scarper to Berlin? Christ. Haven’t seen it confirmed, but if true, says everything you need to know about the man

      1. Yves Smith Post author

        His plane went there. So he could have gone or used that to try to pretend not to be in Israel while hiding in his bunker.

        Neither is a good look.

        1. raspberry jam

          Based on Merz’ comments shortly after he was there I got the impression Netanyahu went to attempt to pull Germany into offensive operations (I believe Merz said he is sticking to defensive for now). I will check Hebrew media later today to see if there are any rumblings from the Israeli right wing (specifically Bennett) on this and share if I find anything but the activity of Wings of Zion may be under censorship in Israel currently

        2. JohnW

          Particularly compared to Khameini’s fate.
          If what I’m hearing is true, Israeli public is in full panic. Alastair Crooke paints a dire picture in his interview on the cradle yesterday.
          Thank you once again, Yves, for providing this space. It’s been a godsend

          1. raspberry jam

            I’ve spent the day on calls with Israelis. Sample set about 45. I would not agree that they are in full panic, not yet. They have been expecting this for at least a month now and they had a trial run last summer. They are, however, already extremely anxious and on edge (quite a lot more snapping and short tempers than usual) which I take to mean they know it is not going well despite the censorship ongoing. The missile alerts are happening consistently since Saturday, so they’re going into day 3 with limited sleep since the current waves are coming across the country. This is going to build and build over the coming weeks until they really crack.

      2. hk

        Fitting place, given the man. Hope he’s given lodgings at the Fuhrerbunker while he’s in Berlin.

  6. Expat2uruguay

    Yves: typo in your summary from the YouTube channel what’s going on with shipping: “Warris does not cover basically if you get hit by a missile or drone.” I assume you mean war risk, but are you saying the insurance doesn’t cover getting hit by a missile or drone?

    Thank you for all of your hard work, you’re a God send!!

    1. Ben Panga

      In other news, I, an Englishman who has lived abroad for decades am announcing my transitional authority for the United Kingdom.

      Having seen the ongoing suffering of the British people in the face of the hated and tyrannical Starmer regime, I will be asking the Russians to bomb the living shit out of the UK, after which I will return and be received by rapturous crowds.

      \sarc tag in case the UK fun police read this

      1. .Tom

        We will thank you English expats to keep your hands off Scotland when you bring in the Russian bombs.

        1. Ben Panga

          Our intelligence says the Scots will rise up and help bring down the regime. The report describes them as “pasty Kurds” and assure us if supplied with enough Irn-Bru, they will storm London.

          If this is incorrect or shows only limited cultural understanding you should blame the intelligence officers who prepared the report.

          (Apologies, it’s been a long few days)

    2. Al

      He is setting up a throne room in his basement in Connecticut. Complete with gold trim from home depot.

      Meanwhile Juan Guaido has launched a rival bid and has declared himself Shahanshah.

      1. Revenant

        At the risk of cried of “Too soon!”, I would like to make a request for Not the NIne O’Clock News and the Ayatollah Song, to remind us of the good times with AyKha’s predecessor, AyKho..

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8iPgOBoqsaQ

        Sung by Pamela Stephenson, with bonus appearance by Billy Connolly, her husband, as Khomeini.

    4. Samuel Conner

      I’m not sure that one can fully consider Iran’s governance system to be “democracy”. The demos is not in charge. Perhaps better would be “constitutional theocracy with republican characteristics”. People with better understanding are invited to correct me.

      1. vidimi

        it’s just not an interesting discussion given that no state calling itself a Democracy has anything resembling a governance by the people. The closest that come to that are maybe Iceland or Swiss cantons, since such things can only work on a small scale, but then neither can have any say in foreign affairs.

        1. Hickory

          “democracy” is a facade for oligarchy, and just one of many kinds of governments that ruling classes can impose. There are nations without ruling classes that show what actual freedom is like – actual rule by the people, where people can commonly trust their neighbors and leaders – but ruling classes do their best to keep people from learning about them.

      2. Yves Smith Post author

        Former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Chas Freeman, disagrees. He says Iran is a “directed democracy” where certain topics are not up for discussion, just as in the US.

    5. jhallc

      Maybe he can get together for lunch with Juan Guaido to help pick out curtains for the throne room. I’m sure he will have some useful suggestions for him.

  8. ChrisFromGA

    CNN now admitting that “war spirals” … yesterday they were parroting the Trump/Isuzu administration line that Iran’s command and control structure was obliterated. Funny how they’re still fighting back. I guess somebody served a hot cup of reality to CNN’s editorial staff.

    1. vao

      “the Trump/Isuzu administration”

      You lost me there. Isuzu? What does the Japanese brand of lorries have to do with Trump?

      2. DJG, Reality Czar

        vao:

        The Joe Isuzu ad campaign in the U S of A during the 1980s.

        He told whopper after whopper.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Isuzu

        This one sums up the ethos of the U.S. elites: “”If I’m lying, may lightning hit my mother.” (“Good luck, Mom!” appears on screen.)”

      3. .Tom

        I’d guess auto-correcting a typo in Israel.

        I love spell checkers and have relied on them since the mid 80s since my speling is atroshus. But I hate auto-correction. Yes, please point out my sus spelling and gradma but I’ll do revisions myself, thanks.

  9. Yves Smith Post author

    If you read the post at launch time or shortly thereafter, please refresh your browser window. Many consequential short updates at the end.

    3. abierno

      Deep thanks – coverage of this considered care and accuracy takes an exceptional amount of time and energy. Again, deep thanks for not only the coverage but also maintaining a well moderated channel for those who comment, another important information stream.

    1. raspberry jam

      quick notes while they’re talking:

      – Hegseth sounds like a teenager, not inspiring at all, adds some prayer horseshit at the end of his statement
      – Caine is better speaker, sounds like an adult and professional
      – both do the perfunctory thanks to the dead
      – Caine says it will not be quick operation
      – Caine says he expects further losses
      – Caine says goal is to destroy Iran’s ability to project power beyond their borders
      – Caine says this operation has been in some cases the result of years of work
      – Caine says Admiral Cooper will receive additional forces today
      – Caine discusses various forces (including reservists?) who have been contributing, thanks those who left their civilian jobs to contribute to he war effort
      – Caine claims only essential forces remained on the bases when the operation started
      – Caine says they received the final go order on February 27
      – Caine is now discussing details on the operation in “military storytelling” mode

      they’re still talking, posting this now

      1. raspberry jam

        The first question after Caine finishes speaking is what the exit strategy is. Hegseth emphasizes all the defensive capabilities in the theater, says it’s on Trump to define the schedule. I know I just said this but I can’t believe the lack of confidence Hegseth projects.

        Caine says it will take time to run the (BDA) operational assessment and strike range capability from Iran before they can assess that and it will take longer than just a single operation.

        Second question is what our objectives are in this fight and details on the casualties. Hegseth says Iran has too many offensive capabilities and then shifts into dissembling about the nukes and claiming Iran was unwilling to address the nuclear capabilities at the recent negotiations. On the casualties he says it was AD failure and missile hit the operational group.

        Third question asking if there are currently US boots on the ground in Iran. Hegseth says no and he will not talk about the future then starts blustering about why it’s smart not to talk about it and how badass the US is and then insults the reporters

        1. vidimi

          I think the most likely exit strategy for the US will be removing Trump, either through a forced resignation or an impeachment (this will become more likely if the congress vote on war resolutions passes) and then begging Iran for a cease fire claiming that we’re a new government now, the madman who started this mess is gone, can we make peace now pwease?

          1. Lefty Godot

            This madman might leave the stage, but the people running things remain the same. Biden, Blinken, Schumer and Hillary are probably green with envy that they didn’t get to be the ones assigned to bump off the Ayatollah, since I’m sure that was on their bucket lists.

      2. lyman alpha blob

        What better way to show that rule by religious fundamentalists is not to be tolerated than by praying as you turn brown people into pink mist.

        I hope the Zionist fanatics are begging for a cease fire again soon. And Iran should not grant it without getting some heads on platters first.

        1. erstwhile

          Let me quote the erstwhile senior senator from new york , from several years ago upon the zionist entity’s assault on Gaza, “No cease fire, no cease fire.” There can be no coming back from Gaza. Justice for the dead.

          1. John Wright

            Some searching on the Web indicates HRC was never the senior senator from NY, as Schumer preceeded her.

            “Junior, carpet bagger senator”, is a description of Senator HRC that I prefer.

            “Senior” may imply a wisdom that is not there.

            1. erstwhile

              I was referring to schumer ,the zionist cheerleader, and one of the most powerful men in america, committed to maintaining the most corrupt and bloodthirsty nation on earth. Sorry for not making that clearer. He rejected any ceasefire while addressing a crowd shortly after the zionist genocide of Gazan began in oct. 2023. A killing type.

      3. Carolinian

        Macgregor on Judge Nap didn’t think much of Caine leaking his doubts during discussions with Trump. He said that if Caine disagreed with the (illegal) war he should have resigned instead.

        Those of us with long memories of SC’s Westmoreland are unimpressed with Pentagon ethics, professionalism and competence. Perhaps when this fiasco is over Caine will resign and take our joke of a war secretary with him.

    2. .Tom

      That is stomach churning. It seems my revulsion at Peter Brian “Epic Roid Rage” Hegseth exceeds what I experience at the rest of them. Imagine that! How can anyone be more revolting than Trump, Jimmy Vance, Rubio? Idk how but he does it.

    3. JCC

      Listening to Hegseth, I feel like I’ve been sitting next to Winston Smith. For years we have been told that ISIS, Al Queda, Al Nusra, et. al. were Sunni groups funded by Sunni States, but it seems that now we are, finally, being told the truth.

      We have always been at war with Eastasia.

  11. .Tom

    Since the question of China’s and Russia’s possible involvement was in comments yesterday, I’ll mention Ritter opined on Haiphong yesterday (near the end at 1:48:50 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8X7L1JIrR0g) that they want to avoid global economic crisis, keep oil fields open and tankers moving so they will be doing diplomacy to help end it. He also said that Russia needs a strong US for stability and predictability, that a collapsing US is very dangerous to Russia. … among other things.

    He was in a grumpy mood and gave the cheerleaders on any side (YT live stream comments are brutal) a telling off. He chided also Danny for picking videos for YT effect. Tough but fair. First, it’s a huge complex stochastic situation so trying to conclude anything from a few scraps here and there is a fools game. Second, the videos are often hard to interpret. Third, the war is completely unnecessary, a war of choice for Greater Israel, it is killing people and harming lives of survivors and Ritter thought cheering hits like goals in sport is bad form.

    1. vidimi

      Russia and China need a functioning and allied Iran more than they need a strong US. Ritter’s American bias is coming through. He’s right about Haiphong’s clickbait, though. Insufferable.

      1. lyman alpha blob

        Ritter is walking a fine line. I think he feels he feels genuinely betrayed by the US, and he should, but he may also feel the need to tout the USA every so often either to reassure the conservatives who presumably constitutes a decent percentage of the audience of the shows he appears on, or to avoid censorship/demonetization by the algorithm. Or to avoid being arrested by US authorities.

        I did hear him say “we” yesterday on one program, and he was not referring to himself and the US, but to himself and Iran. He quickly corrected that. Could have been just a slip of the tongue, but I did notice it.

      2. Yalt

        I think maybe the issue here is the meaning of the word “strong.” A declining US might be welcome, but a collapsing US is a danger.

        1. John Wright

          One actor that abetted the USA’s decline is the USA financial industry that pushed for shifting manufacturing overseas and just-in-time manufacturing and inventory management.

          This led to no stockpiles of critical metals and the loss of institutional knowledge.

          The vaunted, TBTF USA financial industry may turn out to be a force for global peace as it cripples the USA.

          Who could have known?

    2. ISL

      After 100,000+ soldiers killed by NATO and Trump/Biden/Eurocrats in an existential war for Russia (they are fortunately winning – else end of civilization), arguing that business profitability drives policy is naive – this is Scott Ritter, bless his heart – still trying to support citizen diplomacy (because? Nuclear war).

      Moreover, it’s in Russia’s interest to destroy European troops and military assets in the Middle East rather than in Ukraine (as Europe is threatening). And it’s in China’s interest for the US to deplete its arsenal to where it can no longer arm Taiwan – some commentators have noted that half the US combat-capable airframes and ships are in West Asia (with no replacements without Chinese rare earths). China has repeatedly been told the US plans to wage war on China, which (due to nukes), would be existential for China. China can supply an infinite missiles to Iran if needed.

  12. Jim in MN

    Been a long while Yves, just passing by online, wanting to wish everyone well.

    There are many, many strategic options on the table.

    Some more ugly than others.

    What no one in the US establishment has thought about is: losing.

  13. Afro

    Saudi Arabia is between a rock and a hard place.

    Ambassador Huckabee says it’s ok for Israel to take half their territory.

    They know that their weapons would probably be deactivated against an Israeli attack.

    But they can’t turn to Russia and China, because their wealth is in western bank accounts.

    If they strike Iran, they lose their oil facilities, and their domestic population might revolt.

    No win situation.

  14. vidimi

    Iran is in the midst of an existential war and signs indicate that it knows it and is acting accordingly. They need to go after the US ships in the region and reports suggest they are doing it.

    Iran must fight until their enemies are defeated. They will not survive another 12-day war. After the fighting, their economy will be in tatters. They will need to dedicate substantial resources to rebuilding and restocking their depleted missiles. That will divert important resources from the productive economy and, if their enemies are left standing, will use the unrest this will cause for another Syria outcome. China, whose own economy is suffering, might not be able to help out too much, although the Chinese are more likely to have a debt jubilee than the West.

      1. Louis Fyne

        we see a bizarro-world reflexivity where ordinary investors and professionals lean into LLM. and “AI” tells them the HODL-trope just as there is a secular economic regime change, lmao

        1. ChrisFromGA

          My astrologers/Elliott Wave theoriticians say that it’s all noise until we break SP 6750; after that, the defense opens the door to S&P 5000 later this year.

          Just in time for the mid-terms … if you think Taco is rage-posting against the Fed now, just wait until summertime.

          1. Yves Smith Post author

            I have a friend whose long -term charts showed a big big downdraft in April….years ago. She said she could not believe the froth would persist so long, but so far this forecast has not been disproven.

        2. ArvidMartensen

          The markets seem to react hugely to PR stunts, but not react to real, economic shaking change. I saw that in 2007. It was obvious that an earthquake was coming to the markets and yet nothing much was happening.
          Which was great for me, because I moved what there was of my superannuation to a safe haven. Before the shtf.
          So maybe time to go long cash.

      2. Keith Newman

        At 10:30 am:
        S&P down 0.35%.
        WTI oil up a bit less than 7%.
        Natural gas up 3.5%
        Fairly tame reaction.
        Looks like the expectation is that the attack on Iran will go well for the U.S.

          1. Keith Newman

            At 1:20 pm:
            S&P actually UP a tiny bit 0.01%
            WTI oil up 5.25%
            Natural gas (Henry Hub) up 1.85%

            Financial markets have largely shrugged off this attack off except for a modest reaction on oil and gas.
            CNBC notes that “…Traders Monday may also be getting ahead of a well-known historical pattern where stocks dip initially but typically trade higher in the weeks following geopolitical conflict.”
            https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/01/stock-market-today-live-update.html
            Still seems delusional to me…
            May take some time as per Howard L comment.

        2. Howard L

          The first oil shock started on Oct, 17 1973. The embargo had no effect on the stock market for the first eight trading sessions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average even went up a bit. Reality set on day 9 and the market went down 20% over the following 5 weeks. The lesson is that it takes time for a new reality to set in.

          1. Doggo1991

            Interesting. How did gold do during this time, when stocks went down 20% 5 weeks after start of the oil embargo?

            1. Wukchumni

              Old yeller dropped 10% in the 6 weeks after the war started, and then went from $90 in Late November 1973 to $193 an ounce in 1974.

          2. GF

            We didn’t have the level of corporate mergers and billionaire owners in 1973 as we have today. The billionaire owners will do almost anything to keep their company’s stock price up in addition to the usual newer method – extensive stock buybacks.

        3. ChrisFromGA

          A wiser man than me said that we ought to watch the Ten-year treasury yield and ignore “stonk muckets.”

          Currently 4.06 and rising …

  16. David

    With regards to vulnerability of LNG compared to oil plants.

    1. Gas tends to explode far more easily than oil.
    2. Conversly if oil does ignite it is a lot harder to go out.
    3. On both plants there are quite a few points that can be damaged that stop production.
    4. A typical process is inlet-separation-metering-compression (gas) or pumps (oil)- outlet. Refineries can have several trains within these areas, and often have a spare, or if one train is down then other trains can increae their load to continue. However, there are points that if they go down then everything goes down until repaired. And if there is a fire or explosion it’s procedure to shut everything down and vent any gas in the inventory.
    5. The question is how easy it is to target specific parts. I won’t go into detail but I think not too hard to identify the points with limited info. But depends on weapon accuracy.

    1. ISL

      Iran has drones with AI image recognition. Ted Postol reported on this capacity from Yemen attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities many years ago.

      1. The Rev Kev

        I’ve wondered about this development. Near the beginning of the war in the Ukraine the Russians purchased Shahed drones along with a license to build them. They were a solid design and performed well. Since then the Russians have run with this design and keep on upgrading it and adding more capabilities to it. It would be only logical that the Russians are sharing these new technical developments with the Iranians. For the Iranians, it must have been like casting bread upon the waters.

    2. TBuff

      Retired chem e here. Refineries and LNG plants have extensive safety procedures and equipment to keep them from blowing up all by themselves. Anything that causes them to fail and it’s bad news. I would say their ability to withstand heavy hits and keep running is nil.
      This is probably why Qatar shut them down while they can still do it safely.

      1. converger

        TBuff, do we know what happens if a large-scale LNG carrier or storage farm gets hit, spreads, and ignites?

        1. TBuff

          With a big LNG tank the major problem isn’t a fire. Any tank rupture will release millions of cubic feet of liquid methane. The storage tanks have a dike around them, but will usually not restrain a full tank.
          What happens next depends. The liquid will flash into vapor on contact with the ground. If there’s wind, the vapor will disperse and you may get a flare. Little wind, you get cold dense clouds of methane vapor hugging the ground and collecting in low spots. If enough air gets mixed in, you could have the world’s biggest fuel-air bomb. Think fertilizer warehouse explosion.

      2. David

        I’ve been on a rig when a nearby boat didn’t respond to hails and was getting rather close. Everyone to muster points. Plant shut down. All gas flared off to have as little inventory in the plant as possible. So I can only imagine it is similar if you think a missile is potentially going to hit.

  17. Huey

    There’s some kind of irony here with the EU. After months of droning on about Russia being an imminent threat, the true threat (VdL and her band of merry ignoramuses) is setting up Iran to be the long-desired big bad wolf who will huff and puff and blow their house down.

  18. Carolinian

    While modern oligarchy is global, all politics, per Tip O’Neill, are still local? Epstein Fury only garners 25 percent support.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5762380-public-opinion-us-iran-conflict/

    Of course the oligarchs in Europe or the US have much more sympathy for the Israelis since their main concern is the same–keeping their unhappy populations under control. This past weekend a blog posted this link from January.

    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-warns-iran-that-it-would-be-blown-up-if-he-s-assassinated/3805948

    “US President Donald Trump warned Iran on Tuesday that his country would respond forcefully if Tehran acts on alleged assassination threats against him.

    “They shouldn’t be doing it, but I’ve left notification. Anything ever happens, we’re going to blow the whole — the whole country is going to get blown up,” he said in an interview with NewsNation, responding to a question about continued threats from Iran’s leadership.”

    Yes if Don’s precious protoplasm meets an untimely end then 90 million must die. Of course the bluster means nothing except we are now in a war with Iran started only on his say so. The hypocrisy of his complaining about assassination goes without saying.

  19. pjay

    Conor has posted on the Democrats’ cowardly (non) response to Trump’s attack on Iran. The reaction of Europe’s boot-licking “leadership” is similar, if not even more despicable. Sit back and watch the US and Israel attack. Then, when Iran answers, express your moral outrage at such “aggression” and vow to jump in with your own “defensive” response. The Orwellian hypocrisy is mind-bending. The “Epstein coalition” vs. the rest of the world. I like it; I think I’ll start using this phrase. Maybe it will help breach the consciousness of MAGA types.

    Then again, NBC’s Laura Jarrett can actually ask Iran’s foreign minister how Iran can justify attacking US military bases in the region after we bomb the s**t out of them and assassinate their leaders! Welcome to the Epstein coalition Laura!

  20. Ben Joseph

    The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) has said that three US F-15E Strike Eagles were “mistakenly been shot down” by Kuwaiti air defence on Sunday.

    I know I am nitpicking.
    Still.

    The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) has said that three US F-15E Strike Eagles have “mistakenly been shot down” by Kuwaiti air defence on Sunday.

    2. Mel

      I guess I can imagine a story like this.

      You scramble the fighters so they won’t get caught on the ground, then in the air they get mistaken for incoming missiles. Maybe incoming missiles that are nearby, maybe not.

      1. hk

        I still have trouble imagining 3 of them.being taken out by “mistake” all at once, though….

          2. Antagonist

            Do check out Colonel Wilkerson’s interview with Paul Jay, which was published today. Perhaps this interview will be in Links 10-12 hours from now. Wilkerson doesn’t cover too much new ground about the latest Iranian war, but the manner in which he says it is pretty stunning. Wilkerson is remarkably unbiased considering his past positions with the US government. He speaks positively about Iran, suggesting that he has insider knowledge that Washington certainly doesn’t understand. Other war commentators that NC likes, such as Marandi (pro-Iran), Ritter (anti-US stupidity) or Mearsheimer (the lobby, the Lobby, the Lobby!), are clearly biased even if I do welcome the bias occasionally. Nonetheless, some notable thing Wilkerson says after having just watched the interview:

            The US and Israel provoked an unwinnable war.

            Not coincidentally, the elite insiders who knew about the timing of this craziness raked in millions with financial bets.

            This war will go on far too long for US/Israel to sustain.

            Some US fighter jets have already been shot down by Kuwait, Iran, or friendly fire.

            Iran is essentially a military dictatorship now and ostensibly faithful to Islam, and the leaders of this military have learned from its past mistakes. They have nowhere to go, and they are not backing down.

            Things will go south for Israel soon because their porous air defense system will be depleted soon. Iran will then rain hell on Israel with a 10000 km/hr MIRV.

            When things go south for Israel, they will launch a nuke. Netanyahu said so himself in Hebrew when addressing the Knesset. He lies in English all the time; he lies a little less in Hebrew.

            But Israel ain’t done yet. They have their eyes on Turkey to achieve what Huckabee had said, however misinterpreted a prophecy of Greater Israel is.

            This war will hasten the decline of the American empire.

            This war will hasten the end of Trump’s presidency.

            In domestic politics, provoking an illegal war will cause an impeachment and possibly provoke even more violence. Paul Jay warns of a potential false flag on American soil that is then blamed on Iran to cancel elections.

            A new American civil war will break out. The billionaires will, of course, support Trump.

  21. Yves Smith Post author

    You can stick a fork in the EU economy and Trump’s presidency (see David on vulnerability of LNG facilities to attack here: https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/03/iran-war-widens-as-iran-attacks-saudi-oil-infrastructure-israel-and-hezbollah-exchange-strikes.html#comment-4384724)

    Lead story at the Financial Times now. Apologies for not getting this in the main post:

    Gas prices soar as Iranian attacks force shutdown of Qatari production

    The threat of a new natural gas crisis sent prices soaring by almost 50 per cent on Monday after Qatar was forced to halt production following attacks from Iran.

    The unprecedented move by QatarEnergy, the world’s largest LNG company, unnerved traders in Europe and Asia and poses the first concrete threat to economic growth from the widening conflict in the Middle East….

    Oil prices rose about 9 per cent to $79.41 a barrel due to a near-complete halt of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Asian gas prices also surged, while the rise in the US was more limited due to domestic production.

    Though European prices remain well below their peak in 2022, when they soared almost 10-fold after Russian President Vladimir Putin shut off the majority of Russian supplies, the pace of the jump will nevertheless unnerve politicians and central bankers.

    Consumers and investors are still reeling from the inflationary shock that began four years ago, which led to the first prolonged rise in interest rates since the 2008 financial crisis.

    “Global gas markets could face a crisis well beyond the scale of oil markets,” said Saul Kavonic, an analyst at MST Financial.

    https://www.ft.com/content/dac7a77d-e0f4-4f52-a3d4-55b145e67347

    1. JohnM_inMN

      Though European prices remain well below their peak in 2022, when they soared almost 10-fold after Russian President Vladimir Putin shut off the majority of Russian supplies, the pace of the jump will nevertheless unnerve politicians and central bankers.

      They’re never going to give up on this storyline…apparently.

      1. Doggo

        It’s not a storyline, it’s an outright bald-faced lie.

        Russians kept repeating over and over again that they will honor all existing contracts and keep supplying everyone with gas. It was EU and JUSA who sanctioned Russia and stopped the gas flow. They thought this would deprive the Russians of gas revenues and collapse their economy and lead to regime change in Moscow.

        Of course they have to gaslight their population and revise history because they can’t have their population getting angry at the EU government for tripling their energy bill.

  22. Louis Fyne

    >>>Three US fighter jets mistakenly shot down by Kuwaiti air defence: CENTCOM

    reasonable alternative info-war explanation is that they got to close to the Iran side of the border and got shot by mobile air defense who laid low exactly for this type of ambush scenario versus pilots who were too used to flying against shepherds with AKs.

    3 and “blaming the dumb local Arabs” reek of a psy-op.

    1. The Rev Kev

      Agreed. It would be too much to admit that the Iranians are knocking planes out of the air because they know what they are doing. So let’s go with the dumb Arab allies did it by accident.

      1. ISL

        Or Kuwaiti air defenses shot them down NOT by accident. Blue on blue attacks were common in Afghanistan (and Vietnam and well, always), and the US just martyred the Shiite leadership. That would be even more worrisome.

        2. ISL

          Andrei Martyanov, in his website SmoothieX12 says three is extremely improbable by accident.

      2. vao

        I found this message in X/Twitter, which hints at two, perhaps three, possibilities:

        1) The Iranians had been so successful at degrading the monitoring and communication capabilities of the USA and their allies in that area (destroying radars, jamming communications, spoofing GPS signals) that the AA units were in the dark as to whether the airplanes on their sights/radars were friend or foe. Fog of war, hence friendly fire (in doubt, Kuwaitis shot at everything that moved).

        1.b) Same as (1), but the Iranians took advantage of the confusion to lob some surface-to-air or air-to-air anti-aircraft missiles which achieved kills.

        2) The USA, through nonchalance, incompetence, or unpreparedness, failed to establish proper identification and warning channels with the Kuwaitis — who, being in the dark, shot at everything that moved since the airplanes in their sights/radars did not unambiguously announce themselves as friend or foe.

        Whichever the reason, this casts a harsh light on the tactical competence of the USAF. Once again: it is the first time in many decades that the USAF faces a near-peer, or at least modern, adversary.

    2. vao

      Not necessarily.

      Remember those F-18 airplanes lost during the intervention against Yemen? There are good reasons to assume this was the result of mistakes made in a hectic environment where both ships and aircraft were being competently shot at — unusual circumstances for US forces accustomed to “full-spectrum dominance” every time they went to war.

      Similarly, US forces are now fighting for the first time since Vietnam in an environment where missiles, drones, and shells are being liberally lobbed around by a resolute adversary, and having to contend with allies (Kuwaitis in this instance) responsible for air defence but who have no experience dealing with such a situation. Besides, some doubts have been expressed about the skill and degree of coordination of the Iranian AA forces. 5h!t happens. Actually, airplanes shot down by friendly fire was not an uncommon occurence in “real wars” past, such as WWII.

      Perhaps we will learn more in the future about the exact circumstances of that incident in Kuwait.

    4. Wisker

      I don’t think attacking planes are flying close to Iran let alone into its airspace, at least not something very un-stealthy like an F-15E. Media are liberally using the term “airstrike” very loosely–most if not all the strikes appear to be with standoff weapons launched as far away from Iran as possible. Surveillance drones yes, stealth planes at the margins, m-aaaay-be, 4th gen planes like F-15’s, I doubt.

      Even with Iran’s modest air defenses, you won’t see conventional planes overflying it without massive wild weasel accompaniment. These would be very large assemblies and we haven’t seen evidence of anything like that yet.

    5. Pearl Rangefinder

      “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action”

  23. Tom Stone

    Hoocoodanode that the Iranians would do what they promised to do and clearly had the means to do?

    It’s time for Trump to try another back channel and start negotiaions for a ceasefire, perhaps he can convince them that he is sincere this time by saying “Trust Me, I’m a Realtor”.

    1. JCC

      I agree. I’m listening to Starmer’s statement now to Parliament expressing his shock at Iranian actions, failing to mention that Iran is doing exactly what it said it would do if the US and Israel launched this war.

      He is very upset at the fact that Iran has killed innocent civilians and now he has no choice but to launch defensive actions.

      If he, and many others, had only felt this way about Gaza, this war may not have ever started.

  24. ISL

    WRT refineries, they have a weakness – their power plant, and more precisely, the power transformers that transport the power to the wells and other critical infrastructure. There are other key points – compressor stations, metering stations, etc. that are bottle necks.

    On another level, I think Postol talked about the destruction radius of large warheads, and I think a 1-ton warhead has a 1 km radius of destruction – see the 3-ton FAB bomb videos from Russia and how far the shock wave covers. Mercouris admits he is not a military expert. Refineries are delicate – 6 or seven large payload missiles and a refinery will take decades to rebuild…… with Chinese rare earths . . . clearly China prefers the US permanently evicted from the Middle East.

    The misconception arises from the reality that 500-pound bombs only have 200-300 pounds of explosive, whereas the destruction region is highly non-linear (there are many synergies with increased shock wave pressure on destruction, especially of non-hardened structures – like tents in Gaza or a refinery – and that is before the damage from fires.

    2. Skip Intro

      Reportedly the Saudi refinery was just hit by a drone, not even a ballistic missile. They were seemingly undefended. That may have just been a warning shot.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      We had a footnote late last week:

      I am relegating this gossip to a footnote, since it comes from a single source and I am not sure how much is the result of him tracking down reports in the Iranian media of what it learned from its hack of Israeli networks, versus other Israeli sources, which he has. The problem with single sources is even if they are reporting what they heard with 100% accuracy and that information is true, their contact or contacts may not have a full picture and the information gaps may be consequential. Nevertheless, he says that Israel has about 300 nuclear weapons, but the Israeli documents said its experts were seriously concerned that many did not work. Nuclear bombs, even the old and comparatively simple gun-type require that the multiple elements of the triggers fire in an extremely tight time sequence (milliseconds?) or else the detonation is a fizzle. On top of that, many (most?) are on submarines…and with the Chinese having sen in a spy ship that can locate submarines, it may not be easy for an Israeli sub to get in a good firing position. Additionally, the contact said that many of the Israeli nuclear devices were low-yield by contemporary standards. That is not implausible if Israel started its program early and froze or greatly slowed it in return for promises of US protection.

      1. Michaelmas

        Yves S.: the contact said that many of the Israeli nuclear devices were low-yield by contemporary standards. That is not implausible if Israel started its program early and froze or greatly slowed it in return for promises of US protection.

        Your contact might be right about relatively low-yield (as compared to thermonuclear weapons) but not for those reasons because none of that works that way or applies. As follows —

        To begin with, Israel either has (a) thermonuclear weapons or (b) boosted-fission weapons.

        If (a) then the big Bikini-type megaton explosions come first with thermonuclear devices. Only with further development do both the miniaturization that allows use as a missile warhead and the adjustable, focused yields of modern thermonuclear weapons become possible.

        If (b) which is boosted-fission, these can reach yields reach in the low hundreds of kilotons (Hiroshima and Nagasaki were approx. 15 and 20 kilotons respectively).

        The evidence is inconclusive on whether Israel has thermonuclear capability. Doubtless it has physicists with the theoretical knowledge. But such weapons are still enormously expensive and complex.

        A modern boosted‑fission weapon (b), conversely, is an implosion‑type nuclear device in which a small amount of deuterium–tritium gas is introduced into the plutonium or highly enriched uranium core just before detonation. When the core begins to implode, the fusion gas undergoes a brief, low‑level fusion reaction that releases a burst of high‑energy neutrons, greatly increasing the effect of the fission chain reaction.

        Such weapons are compact enough for Israel’s Jericho II/III re‑entry vehicles and aircraft delivery. Yields are typically in the tens to low hundreds of kilotons.

        Evidence supporting this is that Israel’s program began in the late 1950s with French assistance and Israel’s plutonium production and weapons engineering infrastructure aligns with post‑1960s Western design norms, not early Soviet approaches. Also, India, Pakistan, and North Korea all use implosion designs. North Korea’s first test in 2006 was widely assessed as an implosion device. Boosted‑fission weapons are the global baseline because they offer credible deterrent yields without megaton‑class devices, compatibility with missile delivery systems, reduced fissile‑material requirements, and predictable performance ***without full‑scale testing***.

        BUT, boosted‑fission weapons absolutely can serve as the first stage of a thermonuclear weapon, and in fact are the standard primaries used in modern two‑stage designs.

        So it’s possible that the Israelis have taken the next step.

        1. Yves Smith Post author

          My contact does understand weapons design. He tried explaining it to me but this is an entirely new topic and I would need a few articles and images to absorb the basics.

          However, I am pretty confident he was discussing implosion devices.

      2. David

        The Chinese spy ship can’t do much. Finding submarines is not easy, even with top of the range technology. The Mediterranean is crowded, which means a lot of covering noise. And even if it finds them then what? The Chinese don’t have warships or aorcraft on hand to do amything, and even if they did, they’d be unliekly to do so. And if they passed the information onto the Iranians what could they do?

        1. ISL

          and you have information there are no Russian or Chinese submarines in theater?

          Col WIlkerson disagrees, and I am guessing his clearance level was higher than yours.

          PS The Med is not in theater. Its too distant.

          1. David

            Depending on what the missiles are the Mediterranean is very much in theatre and likely to keep them operating off thr coast of Israel for support. It’s hard to say what missiles they use as they don’t formally say what they have. The Dolphin submarines they use can fire a Popeye missile. But that only has a range of about 70 miles. It would seems very unlikely they would use a nuclear armed missile with such a low range. If they use something closer to a Tomahawk that could reach Tehran from the Mediterranean.

            Russia occasionaly opwrates Kilo class diesel electric subs in the Mediterranean. But not consistently due to their navy being in a shambles maintenance wise.

            Is China going to risk having a sub trapped in the Mediterranean? Which it would be if it attacked an Israeli sub. It be very surprised if they did.

            Now if they are operating a sub in the straits of Hormuz or Red Sea, that would make them more vulnerable to being attacked. But not by the Iranians, they have virtually no maritime patrol capability and their navy is not in good condition. The Chinese would find it a bit easier there, but it is still a big risk and unlikely to happen.

            I’m not really sure what the security clearance of someone who left the military over 20 years ago matters. His security clearance now is exactly zero.

            1. ISL

              He still has contacts. And he points out that the arabian sea is perfect for submarine warfare due to salinity gradients and other reasons. Russia is clearly in an existential fight with NATO, so…..

              The Med is irrelevant except for emergency evacuation of israeli genociders.

      3. Kouros

        Col. Larry Wilkerson commented 3 days ago from what he captured in Hebrew media wit Bibi adressing his cronies after an interview about using the big one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4d42-oT7nw

        I don’t think the Chinese subs would do anything and even if the nukes are of smaller yield, they still can level parts of Teheran and kill untold number of people. The Chosen People seem to think that they must pry victory from the hands of their god. Everything is a fight for them,, no? After all Jacob fought with the angel of god and got a lame leg, no?

    2. Cat Burglar

      IIRC, Postol said that a 500 missile attack could wreck Tel Aviv IF they improved their guidance systems to have higher accuracy than the 1 km radius of accuracy they had in the June attacks. He allowed that the Iranians were likely working with the Russians to improve their accuracy, but had no evidence that they had attained it.

      We aren’t going to find out until a real reporter eludes Israeli military censorship and tells us what is actually going on in Israel.

      1. Wisker

        I think we have strong evidence Iran has strike capability with much better than 1km CEP. Recall the similarly precise comms radar strike against a US base at the end of the 12 Day War last June.

        1 km CEP is on par with a SCUD missile from the 1950s or so. Ted’s mentioning of this number was only in reference to Iran’s first gen missiles as I understand it. They moved far beyond that capability years ago–and not just with slow moving Shaheds, but with ballistic missiles.

        (linked tweet is from a pro-West shill account BTW).

        No argument with his point that it takes an awful lot of (conventional) missiles to seriously damage any large facility, regardless of accuracy.

        1. Cat Burglar

          There could be accuracy differences between shorter versus longer range ballistic missiles, but the apparent strike on the desalination plant suggests you could be right.

  26. pjay

    These reports are somewhat encouraging, but based on past experience I will reserve my cautious optimism until there is more to celebrate.

    On that subject, and forgive my ignorance, but could someone tell me how Khamenei’s compound was actually destroyed? I’ve seen reports of “30 bombs” by “Israeli jets.” I assume these were missiles fired from great distance, but are Iranian air defenses actually that non-existent? As with the 12 day war, the US and Israel seem to be able to strike from the air with impunity. Am I missing something? The stories about Iran’s offensive strategy and the depletion of Israel’s own defensive capabilities are encouraging, but as I say I’m cautious in my optimism these days. If anyone wants to talk me down I’m listening.

    1. ISL

      Please listen to Alistair Crooke on the Judge.

      Why would Iran devote massive air defenses to the home of Khamanei, who publicly stated he lived a good, long life, was ill, and preferred to die a martyr in the service of Iran and Shiism than in a hospital bed. Air defenses are needed for ports and airports (to receive weapons from China and Russia) and other militarily strategic sites – Iran is the size of Europe – no way it is completely covered by an air defense grid like Russia.

      Alistair Crooke has repeatedly stated there is no evidence (social media, etc.) of Israeli planes over Tehran or Iran during the 12-day war – it was saboteurs (and no sign any remained after the Mossad-sponsored protests painted a Starlink target on all fifth columnists, followed by the unraveling of the rest of the network – likely including in the Gulfies and Azerbaijan).

    2. Yves Smith Post author

      In the same discussion on Judge Nap, Crooke said there is zero evidence any foreign military jet has entered Iranian air space. He even addressed the mis-use of the word “bomb” and said the damage inflicted on Iran is by missiles (and maybe drones)..

      1. pjay

        Thanks. I assumed they were missiles fired from outside Iranian airspace. And I have to assume if Iran can strike with pinpoint accuracy then so can Israel, especially with US assistance. Still…

        I did not catch Crooke’s most recent appearance on Nap, but I do watch him regularly, including 2 or 3 other appearances over the last 48 hours or so.

        1. AG

          On the June attacks Crooke had already corrected Chris Hedges who like his lesser colleagues believed the IDF PR. Which stunned me a bit. Shows you how little the actual people of integrity in the US understand about military affairs. The older generation like Ellsberg and Postol too (although he wouldn´t consider himself part of such a political movement) always did and still does.

          Everything You Need To Know About War With Iran (w/ Alastair Crooke) | The Chris Hedges Report

          July 10, 2025
          58 min.
          https://scheerpost.com/2025/07/10/everything-you-need-to-know-about-war-with-iran-w-alastair-crooke-the-chris-hedges-report/

          p.s. So if Norman Finkelstein prides himself to having no expertise on things military I find that a dumb comment.

          1. hk

            Ellsberg was a decorated Marine officer and Postol was part of the nuclear arms program at its heart. They had to know real military matters because it was their job.

            A lot if modern peace activists, even when they came close, like Chris Hedges, the former war correspondent, were not professionally part of the military establishment. A lot of people who are peacenik adjacent, but are militarily knowledgeable–basically, the former military/intel ppl like McGregor, Davis, McGovern, Mearsheimer, and Johnson, all have a bit of “militarist” streak–other than McGovern among those listed, they are not kumbaya types by nature, and this, I think is why McGovern gets some things wrong, incidentally.

    3. NN Cassandra

      Another possible explanation: Iran’s AD isn’t all that great and crucially they don’t have so many interceptors, so they decided to let the cruise missiles fly and keep the magazines ready for aircrafts, because if they expend all their interceptors on missiles, then US/Israel gets their airsupremancy and Iran will be turned into Gaza by carpet bombing them with “dumb” munitions. As long as US can’t fly directly over Iran, the damage is just from long range strikes and thus limited.

      1. Socal Rhino

        Also, we have examples of missiles hitting but no idea how many were fired, so we have no idea about rate of interception. No AD is 100% and most would be around strategic sites, rather than say elementary schools, hospitals, or police stations.

  27. Louis Fyne

    it’s fascinating that a string of 40 mm flak canons and training straight out of 1942 (essentially just fill the sky with shrapnel along particular imaginary cubes in the air) isn’t even an option to protect US bases in the mideast—-4 years after the start of the Ukraine War

    3. OnceWere

      That would probably be the most effective option but, unless completely automated and unmanned, I wonder how compatible the strategy would be with the US public’s desire for bloodless wars. Casualties amongst flak gunners in WWII were sometimes heavy and I don’t see why that wouldn’t still be the case in a similar circumstance. In fact, with the variety of different types of drones available now a soldier manning an isolated anti-aircraft emplacement might be even more vulnerable than they were back then.

    4. voislav

      They have deployed guns to defend the Iraq bases, but in typical US fashion it’s the C-RAM system (land-based Phalanx CIWS). They are $10M each, short-ranged and, due to high rate of fire, use ammo at a crazy rate (4500 RPM, or 150 rounds for a 2 second burst). So they only have enough ammo for 10-20 targets before they need reloading.

      It’s easy to overwhelm with a missile and drone salvos, it has enough engagement time for 1 missile or 2-3 drones. Like all US air defense systems, they are optimize to engage pop-up attacks by 1-2 projectiles, not large salvos.

    5. hemeantwell

      The tech for autonomous projectile flak has been around for a long time. Back in 1953 the US Army had the radar-controlled 75mm AA “Skysweeper”. It was dropped in favor of missiles, more range was thought to be necessary to counter jets.

    6. redleg

      It would work against drones and also be one hell of a lot cheaper and more anti-fragile than missiles.

      1. Jokerstein

        Cheaper is probably a key driver of why they’re NOT used – doesn’t line anyone’s pockets. Overly engineered, fragile, expensive, quickly obsolete is how weapons of war are made in the US.

    8. Wisker

      FWIW, there’s renewed interest in cold war era AA guns–radar guided, proximity fused–in response to things like the Geran/Shahed. e.g. the Gepard in Ukraine. No one uses unguided flak anymore because its spectacularly inefficient. But even the fanciest modern gun range is very short, so point defense only, i.e. you’d need several to defend even a modest area against slow-flying threats. The rest of the ecosystem consists entirely of SAM’s. Of course, the West hasn’t focused much on air defense since WW2 (except for Israel).

    9. Polar Socialist

      Russian did dig their old 57 mm anti-aircraft cannons from the storage and turned them in AU-220M units, which can be installed on boats and vehicles. They are supposedly excellent against drones, as only a few shells are need to destroy the target, so the crew can engage the next target almost immediately.

      They also have now in service programmable air-burst ammunition for the Shipunov 2A42 helicopter gun, which is also claimed to be superb in drone hunting. Allegedly so armed Kamov Ka-52 managed to destroy 11 Ukrainian drones on one sortie.

      Same ammunition is under development for the 57 mm, too.

  29. Zuluf4

    Re: Ras Tanura
    Some thoughts. First of all there is more we don’t know for sure than what we know. It SEEMS the Iranians have fired on the RT refinery, but it could have been the Houthis (I saw a reference to this on X, but I think it’s unlikely). It’s also possible the drones were on their way somewhere else (say, Sultan air base) and not targeting oil facilities at all. The real significance though, is not the refinery but the proximity of the terminal at Ras Tanura and, a hop, skip, and a jump away, the terminal at Juaymah. After all, oil isn’t worth much if it can’t go anywhere. So, so easy to shut these down, and I think it’s possible this is a message to the Saudi’s to play nice and not get involved.

    1. nyleta

      This is just a warning so far. Israel attacked the Tabriz refinery in Iran 12 hours before this, it makes a lot of jet and rocket fuel. Just showing that two can play that game. If it comes to duelling refinery attacks the economic damage will be much longer term.

  30. The Rev Kev

    Trump has admitted to three Americans killed but considering the number of explosions that we have seen and how a ship was also hit, are they trying to hide the true number like the Israelis do? Even before the Gaza war the Israelis would hide the deaths of their soldiers by claiming that they fell off a ladder or were in a car crash. Waiting for a story to appear how in a training accident, a Blackhawk went down and all 147 soldiers, sailors, marines, airmen, CIA spooks and contractors were all killed in this accidental crash.

  31. Chet G

    Many thanks, Yves, and much appreciation for your reporting, analysis, and dedication in covering this travesty.

  32. Reds

    Hi Yves,

    My wife and I took a tour of central-ish Iran in 2013 (we went as Americans on American passports). You have the Jamkaran Mosque named as the main mosque in Tehran, it’s the main mosque in Qom. That is a holy city for Shi’a and where the most Shi’a scholarship takes place in the world.

    Qom is also the closest major city to the Fordow Nuclear Facility that is about 10 miles away, as the crow flies, and was supposedly “completely and totally obliterated” in June 2025.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Apologies. Someone told me by e-mail that the red flag had been raised over the main mosque in Tehran without naming it. So I went looking and found that tweet.

      If I have time, I will see if I can find more accurate tweet or other confirmation.

  33. AG

    re: Iran deterrence failed – ?!

    From Nukesletter Substack Ankit Panda, Carnegie Endowment

    This is some of the oddest pieces of involuntary or unconscious propaganda from “academia” I have encountered on this war so far.

    Maybe others can read too and also look into the footnoted literature /texts
    such as:

    The 12 Day War, Part II: Iran’s Missile Force Performance
    July 22, 2025
    By Decker Eveleth
    https://horsdoeuvresofbattle.blog/2025/07/22/the-12-day-war-part-ii-irans-missile-force-performance/

    Or a text from a long 2025 study by Bar-Ilan University, “The Israel–Iran War: Israel’s New Strategic Opening”

    The Air and Missile Defense of Israel
    During Operation Rising Lion
    by Uzi Rubin
    https://besacenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/90902/20/

    Panda´s text itself:

    Making Sense of Iran’s Deterrence Failures
    An early appraisal of the missteps that got Iran to this point.
    https://panda.substack.com/p/making-sense-of-irans-deterrence

    Panda initially and in the end stresses he is against this war.

    But his entire paradigm is based on sources which create the (dis)information space and thus military legitimacy for the very war he so much rejects. (The same phenomenon as the European peace movement that is using NATO talking points and flawed data to fight NATO.) – both useful idiots to empire, it seems to me.

    Just to illustrate:

    “(…)Iran’s deterrence strategy failed comprehensively: it failed last year with the 12 Day War, and it failed again 48 hours ago.
    (…)
    Iran’s two direct strikes on Israel in 2024—True Promise I in April and True Promise II in October—laid bare the severe limitations of its missile force. Interception rates were extraordinarily high. The strikes did minimal damage. Crucially, these operations revealed Iranian missile capabilities and tactics to the U.S.-Israeli intelligence and defense architecture without imposing meaningful costs. You might go as far as to argue that Iran was effectively conducting live-fire training exercises for its adversaries’ missile defenses.
    (…)
    Iranian strikes have had the effect of inflaming popular anger against Tehran (while anger persists against Israel and the United States).
    (…)”

    However he emphasizes:

    “(…)
    This post is not about my normative views concerning the justifiability of this conflict, but if you’re wondering, I strongly abhor this war of choice—especially given its wanton illegality under U.S. and international law.
    (…)”

    On WMD:

    “(…)
    Iran had, in effect, constructed the worst possible nuclear posture: close enough to a bomb to justify preventive attack, yet unwilling to cross the threshold that might have actually deterred one.

    Contrast this with North Korea’s approach, which I’ve spent quite a bit of time thinking about. Pyongyang raced past the threshold, tested weapons, developed delivery systems, and presented the world with a fait accompli of what you might term minimally viable nuclear deterrence by 2017. Whatever the costs of this approach—and they were substantial!—nobody is bombing North Korea today.
    (…)”

    Such a logic universally applied would have devastating implications on global nonproliferation. As good will and trust between nations are worth nothing. However latter is the foundation on which Panda operates.

    It´s completely meaningless if you argue in favour of peace but do not dig deep into how US/ISR preemptively sabotaged e.g. Iran´s military capabilities with the worst and darkest possible methods.

    Neither can Panda make a serious assessment of the so-called diplomatic initiatives re: Iran´s WMD-issue if he fails to count in e.g. the treason committed by the IAEA.

    Hell, they actually collaborated with Mossad to assassinate scientists. How can you not acknowledge this?! And still publish such a (fake) moralistic nonsense?

    1. vao

      Panda’s argument that the 2024 attacks laid bare the weakness of Iran’s missile technology and engagement doctrine, and thus allowed Israel to prepare to thwart future offensives, relies on an unspoken assumption: we are dealing with a static environment where Iranians do not learn from their own actions and experience.

      In other words, for Israel and the USA, Iran’s missiles and tactics are still those of 2024 (they are now in utter shock realizing this is not the case). But in a sense Panda is right: Iran’s deterrence did not work — Israel assumed Iran could not enhance its skills, so why fear it?

      Curiously, this is a bit analogous to the attitude towards Russia. Press articles and analytical reports alike assess Russian capabilities as if its military was still stuck at the level of the first Chechen war: incompetent officers, demoralized conscripts, outdated Soviet equipment, mass assaults (“meat assaults”), waste of ammunition, etc. That was true then. By the second Chechen war, the Russian army already had better tactics and command. By the war with Georgia, it still had plenty of difficulties, but achieved its objectives in a sudden offensive that surprised everybody. By the start of the ATO and the annexation of Crimea, its operations were swift and effective. By the intervention in Syria, people were uneasy about its logistical feat (suddenly, the Russians were there in force, whereas the USA would have needed many, many months of obvious, drawn out preparations to intervene). Now the Russian military is a steamrolling behemoth that is mercilessly and efficiently grinding down everything the Ukrainians and NATO are throwing at them.

      All of this points to a conundrum: how can one deter such people whose analytical processes are so stuck that they do not even believe their enemies can learn and improve?

    2. Kilgore Trout

      I think it’s not that Iran’s deterrence strategy failed, but that Trump was too stupid to recognize its import. Now he’s like the dog that caught the tire. Or the porcupine.

    3. Cat Burglar

      Ted Postol differs with this source — he puts Israeli interception rates at 15% or less. In another interview a couple weeks ago, he did say that the Iranian missiles had poor accuracy, about 1km IIRC.

      1. AG

        I haven´t had time to look into the actual evidence Panda is using but from the last 4 years of reading I assume its the usual BS.
        Everything is held under wraps. Zero independent assessment of the damage done by missiles sometimes even video material of the missiles in the air was confiscated. With everyone owning phones this is more difficult. But on the other hand once you try to circulate your amateur video online it will be taken down if important to the security forces.

        I assume professionally shot stuff by official TV are automatically subject to (self-)censorship. So they will not publish material even if they have it. For now the governments want a clean national broadcasting and MSM coverage which they can control. Outside that is of limited concern.

        So we are back in the Age of the Church telling us what is true and what is not despite overwhelming contradicting proof. It is insane.

        1. Pearl Rangefinder

          Absolutely, they lie non-stop, and put maximum importance on narrative control, so much so that they forced Chinese TikTok in the United States to sell to a group of Israeli-connected, to impose the narrative censorship machine.

          The 12-day war was instructive, as during the first few days the Israeli’s made no effort to censor images and videos out of Israel, likely because they felt so much confidence in their defensive systems and because it’s never really been all that necessary. Once the Iranian missiles started flying, the ballistics and hypersonics blasting away targets, and piss-poor air defence, the censorship regime went into full overdrive once they realized how badly it made things look for them. Very similar to the Ukrainians actually, who did the same thing and banned videos and images being shared of Russian strikes early on into the war (although that policy seems to have been relaxed later). And so you have the much mocked 99% interception rates in Ukraine, and similarly in Israel during the 12 days, although that story didn’t quite work as well due to the high number of filmed (spectacular) impacts by then.

          Since Western media seemingly works hand-in-glove with Israel, or is just outright owned by those sympathetic to them, we get a bubble of unreality around events amongst the normies who are fed on a steady diet of propaganda. I’;ve talked with people even just today who think the war with Iran has already been won by Trump (!), and look at me like I’m insane when I point out this war has only started…but but but didn’t they kill the Ayatollah?????

      2. Antagonist

        In the Postol/Nima video linked by Cat Burglar, Postol has a slide that shows how many days of oil reserves certain countries possess. Curiously omitted was how much oil Israel has. Israel has no oil rich land, but it does seem to be have sufficient oil imports, presumably because their best buddies, the Americans, have ensured it. For the current war, are the Iranians and their allies attempting to prevent Israel from getting oil? In today or yesterday’s post on this war, Yves and the other commentators mentioned how Iran has already targeted American refueling vehicles, but that fuel is presumably refined oil ready for plane or ship use. What about crude oil going into Israel? Iran may already be playing the long game because I remember Larry Johnson discussing how vital the Haifa port is for oil shipments and refining.

    4. hk

      In a bizzare (and unfortunate) way, he might be right. What he is implying, whether he wants to or not (or, even realizes it), is thst thd only way forward is to disdain diplomacy and movd aggresdively with open armament and militarism…like North Korea. This is truly a bizzaro universe to see “peaceniks” calling for arms race, but if more guns are what the West would respect….

  34. ChrisFromGA

    Known unknowns:

    1. Has China quietly cut off all REE?
    2. What’s this mysterious rift between China and Russia that Helmer hints at? Maybe one of the two wanted to intervene militarily to stop the Iran attacks, and the other demurred?
    3. How long can Russia not take advantage of this in Ukraine? Wouldn’t now be a good time for “big arrow?”

    1. ISL

      China never stopped the cutoff. They instituted a licensing system and asuaged Trump by promising to speed up license approvals. The licensing system says no rare earths to the US MICC, companies have to submit extensive audits, and if customers redirect rare earths they will be permanently cut off (and then bankrupt). Sorry, too busy to look up, but Kevin Walmsey has been covering this extensively.

      And even with rare earths, the US cannot ramp up production.

      But in any case, why were the latest F35s delivered without radars? Answer – Gallium.

      1. ChrisFromGA

        Thanks. I see no reason for China to even pay lip service to Trump, now. In fact, rubbing his nose in his own feces by making a public statement to the effect that all license approvals are suspended until further notice seems like a sharp move.

        1. ISL

          If Trump goes to China (hat in hand), then at the press conference they could treat him as he treated leaders of (his words – Sh-thole countries).

          Though it’s unclear he will be in office that long if the US (at great cost) is kicked out of W. Asia and Israel looks like Gaza – his Zionists have no loyalty to a goyim fool.

  35. Safety First

    Four announcements on the Pars Today news agency Telegram channel from this morning. I am not saying they are 100% truthful, because both sides are clearly pushing their own narratives, but this is what’s all over Iranian news at the moment.

    Insofar as the 3rd and 4th post, they kind of make sense if you assume the 3rd post talks about “launches”, while the 4th post talks about “hits”. As the posts below are translated from Farsi into Russian and then into English, it is difficult for me to be sure that this is what they meant, but it’s the only way I can reconcile the figures in the two posts as of this moment. If my interpretation is correct, this also gives you an idea of shoot-down rates and Patriot/THAAD/anti-air missile utilization up to this point.

    Regardless of posts 3 and 4, posts 1 and 2 are significant in the context of Iranian-Arab relations, at least for the moment.

    —–

    https://t.me/parstodayrussian/194613

    Iran Foreign Ministry: We are not responsible for the attacks on the Saudi Arabian oil fields and have informed our brothers in Saudi Arabia of this.

    —–

    https://t.me/parstodayrussian/194614

    The strike against a hotel in El-Rhyad is a US false flag operation.

    An Iranian source interviewed by the [Russian] news agency RIA Novosti stated, that the attack on a hotel in the capital of Saudi Arabia was a US act.

    He said: American military commanders are trying to convince the Arab governments to begin attacking Iran by striking civilians in Arab countries.

    —–

    https://t.me/parstodayrussian/194620

    Sardar Jabbari, IRGC general:

    – Up to this point, we have launched around 3 thousand missiles of 1st and 2nd generation.
    – In the coming days we will definitely use missiles of 3rd and 4th generation.
    – Up to this point, we have launched nearly 10 thousand drones.

    —–

    https://t.me/parstodayrussian/194641

    We have struck 60 strategic targets and 500 military targets of the US and Israel.

    In the announcement of the 11th wave of Operation “Truth Promise-4”, the IRGC reported: “From the start of the war we struck 60 strategic targets and 500 military targets of the US and the Zionist regime, launching over 700 drones and hundreds of missiles, setting a new record in the fight against the aggressors.”

  36. Yves Smith Post author

    More info-porn:

    The idea that the US would lose three planes to friendly fire in close succession seemed like a stretch:

    1. John k

      This war might push China into more long term contracts/new pipelines to be more independent of sea lanes for fossil access. If so, it becomes harder than ever for eu to renew previous access to cheap Russian fossil after the war(s).

    2. The Rev Kev

      ‘QATAR claims it downed two Iranian Su-24 jets headed for Doha’

      Why would Iran risk two valuable planes by sending them out of country when they could send missiles and drones instead? I think that Qatar is telling a porky.

  37. karma fubar

    The stories of the evacuated US bases in the region, combined with their widespread targeting by Iran, got me thinking about two prior events.

    The first event was the 1991 Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines. The danger of an eruption was recognized just in time, and the air base was evacuated. The predicted catastrophic eruption did occur, and the base took significant damage. The first ones back were looters. The imperial power that had taken the yoke from the prior imperial power it had destroyed was not well loved by the populace. Later that year the US withdrew from the airbase altogether. With no US personnel left, the remnants of the base were then stripped bare.

    The second event was based on satellite images in a NYT article of Iraq before/after the 2003 invasion, which showed a major military depot. After the invasion every structure in the entire depot was quickly stripped to the ground, apparently for scrap metal being purchased by Turkey.

    Those US bases in the region may find that regardless of actual kinetic damage, that by the time the US personnel return in force there may be nothing left but battered concrete and Superfund-level toxic buildup. It would be easier to build new bases than to rehabilitate the wreckage of the old. The surviving governments in the region will be far less enthusiastic about allowing new US bases on their territory having seen how the US abandoned their “allies” after making them a target. Many of those bases may now be gone for good.

  38. Ben Panga

    More spoutings from upside-down land. America’s own Comical Ali.

    Trump won’t rule out sending US troops into Iran ‘if necessary’— tells The Post war is progressing ‘way ahead of schedule’ (NY Post)

    WASHINGTON — President Trump told The Post Monday that he’s not ruling out sending US ground troops into Iran “if they were necessary” — adding that Operation Epic Fury was “way ahead of schedule” by taking out dozens of Tehran’s top officials.

    “I don’t have the yips with respect to boots on the ground — like every president says, ‘There will be no boots on the ground.’ I don’t say it,” Trump said after launching strikes Saturday to decapitate Iran’s military and political leadership. “I say ‘probably don’t need them,’ [or] ‘if they were necessary.’”

    Trump told the Daily Mail on Sunday that he estimated the war would last “four weeks or so,” but hinted to The Post Monday that that timeframe could be shortened.

    “It’s going to go pretty quickly,” he said. “We’re right on schedule, way ahead of schedule in terms of leadership — 49 killed — and that was, you know, going to take, we figured, at least four weeks, and we did it in one day.”

    Trump also said he wasn’t concerned about Iran using terrorism to repay America for the weekend’s attack.

    “We’ll take it out. Whatever. It’s like everything else, we’ll take it out,” Trump said.

    The president said he made the final decision to strike “after the final talks” Thursday in Geneva — in part because of intelligence that Iran was surreptitiously resuming work on nuclear projects.

    “We had very serious negotiations, and they were there, and then they pulled back,” he said.

    “They wanted to make a nuclear weapon, so we destroyed them completely, but we found they were in a totally different site — totally different — because the sites that we took out were permanent. They tried to use them, but they were totally, as I said correctly before, obliterated, right? So then we found them working on a totally different area, a totally different site, in order to make a nuclear weapon through enrichment — so it was just time.”

    “I said, ‘Let’s go.’”

    Trump insisted that he believes he did “the right thing” and that most Americans support him — despite initial polling indicating otherwise — arguing that allowing “crazy people” to acquire a nuclear weapon would have been worse than even a regional conflict.

    A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Saturday and Sunday found that just 27% of Americans approved of the strikes — while 43% disapproved and 29% weren’t sure. Polling ahead of the strikes showed similar minority support for a possible war.

    “I think that the polling is very good, but I don’t care about polling. I have to do the right thing. I have to do the right thing. This should have been done a long time ago,” Trump said.

    —-

    For some reason it’s the “whatever” that really gets me.

    1. Lefty Godot

      The “boots on the ground” will likely be MEK, Kurds, and Balochistanis, plus as many of the ISIS prisoners that the US/Syria released as can be ferried to the borders of Iran. Maybe some “plausibly deniable” Azerbaijanis that Aliyev can disclaim any connection with. On the other side of the ledger, I wonder if the Iraqi Shiites can use the cover of war to drive the American armed forces out, the ones that won’t leave despite being asked to multiple times. Or if the masses in Jordan can finally rid themselves of Abdullah and his cronies.

  39. WJ

    A couple of items I did not see mentioned above (apologies if I missed them):

    1. I have read that Iran through its Ministry of Foreign Affairs has denied attacking the Saudi Oil Fields and has stated that oil production units in Arab states are not on their target list. The idea is that (1) Houthis attacked these independently or (2) Israel/US has attacked these in order to push Saudi Arabia and other Arab states into live conflict with Iran. Given issues with US/Israel ammo shortages in theater, (2) makes sense. But (1) is also just as possible. Of course, I am not certain this is true, but it is out there on several accounts.

    2. Information silos affect all sides in a conflict such as this one. I recommend Rybar in English on X as a neutral account that might offset our emphasis on the issues the US/Israel is facing. https://x.com/rybar_en?lang=en
    Iran is also suffering many many strikes, and the question continues to be whether their ballistic capability can outlast the US/Israel’s anti-air defenses. I believe this is still very much an open question. Rybar offers what strikes me as a balanced and impartial analysis of this issue.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Oh, a Houthi drone makes PERFECT SENSE. That had not occurred to me. Houthis do act independently despite Western media pretenses otherwise.

    2. NN Cassandra

      Or (3) it was Iran, but since it is just warning shot and the intended recipient no doubt got the message, they are happy to publicly pretend they didn’t do it.

      1. Irrational

        It does not gel with the statement by Al Sistani yesterday that Iran is not at war with their neighbors but are targeting the US bases. WJ’s suggestion makes more sense. Will we ever know?

        1. WJ

          Saudi Arabia is now claming it was caused by debris falling from an intercepted drone. Still doesn’t tell us much.

    3. Polar Socialist

      According to Tasnim Iran is blaming Israel for the strike.

      They are also claiming that one of the downed F-15 fighters was shot down by a “homegrown air-defense system” located near the Iran-Kuwait border region. Iran indeed does have a few types of AA missile with the required range.

      1. pjay

        I find the idea of *three* “friendly fire” shoot-downs almost beyond belief. It would have to be an example of monumental incompetence or communication breakdown.

        I’ve also seen the reports about Iran denials regarding the Saudi oil fields. I could believe either of the false-flag or Houthi scenarios. I was originally leaning toward the “warning shot” view of Cassandra, but given Iran’s response I’m doubting it now. I assume other Shia-sympathetic militia in the region have such capabilities as well.

  40. ISL

    I would like to introduce the idea that the fallout from Starlink debacle could have started unraveling spy networks outside Iran (there was someone in neighboring countries on the other ends of the phone). Nima notes that the US is not hitting strategic targets in Iran, but things you can look up on a map, whereas Iran is hitting strategic targets in the Gulfies and Israel.

    1. lyman alpha blob

      FFS. This morning the hosts on sports radio(!) played a clip of him from the weekend saying the first series of airstrikes were already the biggest, best, most beautiful attacks the world has ever seen. I changed the channel halfway through the clip. Thankfully there are two sports radio stations in my area so I could get a brief respite from the bad news.

      He must be desperate – wasn’t CNN the first one he labelled as “fake news” (he wasn’t wrong there) a decade or so ago?

      1. leaf

        So what’s the big wave? Troops on the ground when the bases they had hoped to use as jumping off points have been rendered unusable and under continuous fire? Where could they safely build up for at least 6 months before attempting to do this crazy stunt?

        Nukes?

  42. Cat Burglar

    An NYT report from yesterday claimed that half of Iran’s missile launchers have been taken out. Now, the report is from an Israel-based reporter sourcing from government sources, so at least some of the story is fabricated propaganda. But missile launchers would be a reasonable chokepoint to target, and if they could be substantially disabled, then it would stanch the Iranian missiles.

    If it were true that US has some air superiority over Iran (asserted, but not yet proven), then it would be possible to impact the number of launchers in a big way. But, once again, we don’t have the information to judge this, but it is a key place to watch.

    1. WJ

      Yes, on the one hand, this is likely war propaganda. On the other hand, it is important that Iran can continue to keep the pace it established over the first 48 hours. Every time Iran fires its missiles, it provides the US/Israel with target coordinates. Some of these are coming from mobile platforms, but many are not. And the US/Israel is launching hundreds of sorties designed simultaneously to (1) take out as many ballistic sites as possible and (2) cause as much damage to large population areas as possible. We are in a race to see who blinks first.

      1. ISL

        IT has been reported by I think Alistair Crooke, most were decoys. But without its radars, the US may have trouble pinpointing (to Tomahawk precision) in Iran. Yes, the US has satellite ISR, but Iran is the size of Europe, and it is not possible (due to bandwidth) to have 10 m pixels everywhere. I also bet Russia knows the US satellite orbits, and the gaps.

        Plus, Iran, who has clearly thought this out (unlike the US), would primarily use mobile launchers until the US runs out of standoff munitions, in about a week.

      2. Uwe Ohse

        Every time Iran fires its missiles, it provides the US/Israel with target coordinates.

        Possibly the coordinates of a mobile rocket launcher or an empty rocket launcher, or even a decoy which housed exactly one real rocket – or a decoy rocket. It’s careless to assume that Iran didn’t prepare for a war it could see coming.

        Besides: Iran isn’t exactly flat land. Mountains provide many challenges when one needs to determine positions.
        Satellites help, of course, but they aren’t a panacea, because of bandwidth issues, and the usual limits of satellites. Resolution is bad in the infrared bands and worse in the radar bands. Their best resolution is in the optical spectrum. Guess at which time of the year Iran is most cloudy?
        https://weatherspark.com/countries/IR#Figures-CloudCover
        I’m not saying that clouds will decide the war (they will not), but they will help one side.

        As will the weather later in the year, in case it comes to in extensive operations on the ground.

        This is more likely than not far from over.

        1. Jonathan Holland Becnel

          Glad I never cleared the security check to go do field maintenance on ATC equipment in Kuwait for Louis Berger Airfield Services back in 2023!

          WHOEVER THE FUCK THEY ARE????

          HARD PASS

    3. Louis Fyne

      if 12 y.o. war nerd me was running the war, I’d have some extant, cheap/old decoys on hand.

      just saying.

    4. Objective Ace

      How would anyone know if “half” were taken out?. And even if you did – how would that not be classified information, not something to be broadcast publicly

      1. Cat Burglar

        Good questions! The report could simply be propaganda to buck up the morale of people in Israel, New York, and DC to suffer on without complaint because “we are already fixing the problem.”

        Once again, the absence of reporting from Israel is significant, and no US media are putting out their stories with the disclaimer that they are under Israeli military censorship. The Guardian even put out a story under the heading “Full Report” on the war impacts “on the region” that contained exactly zero reporting on Israel. Another sign of editorial complicity — the Lobby must be putting forth all its power.

    5. Cat Burglar

      So far, UK activist Richard Medhurst has the best assemblage of video of missile strikes on Israel targets. This is coverage of the war in Israel you can’t get from “news” organizations.

      The MIRV’d warheads look pretty serious.

      No wonder they once threw this guy in jail on trumped up charges.

      1. skippy

        “The MIRV’d warheads look pretty serious.”

        Missile battery radars/targeting algos go …. barffffff~~~~~

      1. JohnnyGL

        Lol…I like how Yves made a point of coming back a full day later just to laugh at this comment.

  43. Tom Stone

    My big worry is that Trump is not a rational actor, when it becomes clear that he backed a loser there is no telling what He will do.
    Perhaps he will find a way to blame Biden …
    If not I hope there is someone close to him with a syringe full of Tranqs.

    1. lyman alpha blob

      If he blames Biden, that will be well deserved since it was Biden who teed this up for Trump. A pox on all houses of the Epstein Class.

      And what’s with the capital “H”? I hadn’t heard that Trump deified himself yet.

      1. ambrit

        I believe, in the old Roman tradition that the Senate has to initiate and “approve” said deification.
        The Divine Donald does have a lilt to it, so narrative friendly.

      2. Tom Stone

        Trump was chosen by Divine Providence to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.
        Trump has said so and so has Pam Bondi, she’s the Attorney General of the USA FFS, if anyone would know it would be her.
        And Laura Loomer has confirmed it.
        I have no doubts about the integrity of these Women and nor should you.

  45. Tom Stone

    Trump’s assertion that the USA could invade Iran is absurd, where would the troops come from, how would they get to Iran and how could they be supplied?
    He is delusional and the fact that the MSM isn’t pointing this out is instructive.

    1. JonnyJames

      True, the sycophant stenographers of what prof. Marandi calls the “Epstein media” will never admit the emperor has lost his marbles. I’m a yank, but I think the politically-incorrect term in UK slang would be “he’s a bloody nuttah” Sadly, his kakistocrat krew don’t seem much better and the only sane one in the bunch (Gabbard) has been sidelined and ignored. He “doesn’t care what she says”.

      1. nippersmom

        If Gabbard had any integrity, she would have resigned a long time ago. The fact that she is still there indicates to me that she has no serious objections to the policy being pursued.

    2. NotTimothyGeithner

      2002 was bad, but the shuttering of traditional news outlets such as newspapers and shift to infotainment platforms means all that is left is stenographers from the msm. The Iraq War made some sense on paper except for the potential of “Fortress Baghdad” which the 2002 Iraqi “military” wasn’t up for, partially because they thought Shrub would leave in shame after not finding WMDs with a round of promotions for everyone after a few at the top were removied*.

      In general, I feel like people understood that the Iraqi missiles wouldn’t be able to strike US forces or assets. The potential to shut the Strait of Hormuz was partially responsible for Iran not being bombed then, but the propaganda was definitely around making sure everyone knew the Iraq invasion would be a relative breeze.

      No one in the msm pushed back on a no-fly zone in Ukraine as a completely insane proposition from a logistical standpoint.

      *I think the Western FP establishment hasn’t figured this out. The only people who would take this deal have absolutely no power.

      1. ambrit

        Use the Azovs. As the Ukraine buckles and falls under the sway of the Rus, those “dedicated fighters” will need somewhere new to ply their sanguinary trade.

  46. Googoogajoob

    At the risk of being glib, the process criticisms that the Dems are known and loved for in these situations have actually have some legitimacy given just how completely devoid Trump administration of being able to provide any justification, reasoning or vision for this military action. So comprehensively incompetent that it can provide an empty criticism some substance.

  48. Balakirev

    Aaron Mate’s column today is a review of the claims (aka “lies”) the US put out about their recent, supposedly thwarted efforts for diplomacy with Iran. If anyone you know is still stating that USia’s federal government acted in good faith in the run-up to the bombings, consider gluing their eyeballs to this:

    https://www.aaronmate.net/p/with-epic-fury-regime-change-radicals?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-restack-comment&r=3wlos9&triedRedirect=true

  49. SDB1

    Re: Trump strategy on Iran War. Don’t think there is a strategy. Hegseth says mission objective for Operation Epic Fury is “destroy the missile threat, destroy the navy, no nukes.” But how will Trump know when mission accomplished? His vision clouded by fog of war, just like everyone else. Perhaps it doesn’t matter. He could just be running simultaneous tactical operations to benefit separate elements of his domestic political coalition. Attempted Syria-fication of Iran is payback to Zionist donor class eg Miriam Adelson for funding 2024 election; bombing campaign is live-fire test for new AI tech developed by “Tech Hamiltonians” (Walter Russell Mead) eg Peter Thiel; while talk about peace talks is sop for MAGA constituency eg Steve Bannon skeptical of forever wars. Iran War is propagandised multiple different ways to different audiences on one timeline. No integrated ideology possible (sorry, Marco Rubio). Instead a spectacular montage of war (dead mullahs), military exercise (ejection from spiralling F-15s) and peace (still to come is “Iran Riviera” video). Narrative gaps filled in with conspiracy theory eg Epstein Files. That’s entertainment!

    1. Balakirev

      That shocked the excrement out of me, too. But I figure that rather than reason and skepticism, it’s simply Bolton getting his hate-on for Trump. Which is definitely returned. In fact, I could see a new version of Sartre’s No Exit, with both of them stuck in the same room in hell for eternity. Who would make a good third in the cast? Biden? Harris? Macron? van der Leyen?

    1. lyman alpha blob

      Wow – he found a black minister willing to give the invocation. So I guess that means slaughtering a bunch of brown people is totally not racist!

      This is what infuriates me about all the claims of “racism” or even “systemic racism” that were thrown around for years when they weren’t really warranted – when actual systemic racism is perpetrated, the scolds suddenly fall silent.

      1. Hickory

        Systemic racism is still real. It’s just that a lot of people virtue-signaled instead of actually seeking change. And a lot of people who sought change weren’t in positions where they could achieve it.

        Every nation with a ruling class – every unfree society – has systemic racism. I’ve looked at dozens and there are always layers of privilege enforced and encouraged by unaccountable political, business, legal, and religious leaders. Systemic sexism as well. The fact that so many people waffle back and forth, or only call out inappropriate behavior when their political adversaries engage in it, doesn’t change the truth.

  52. Anthony Martin

    Unless the US can manage to get Iran to capitulate so it can become a colony of the US per the Rubio Doctrine -Greenland, Canad,a Cuba, Venezuela,& Mexico are waiting their turn in the queue; Iran might opt to imitate Russia and seek a ‘security arrangement’ for West Asia before a cease fire (a pause to rearm). Witkoff and Kushner have lost their crdibility in the negotiating game, Will Trump send Baron and Ivanka as his next emissaries? So far Hegseth has lost three more airplanes and has five or Navy vessels so trapped in the Persian Gulf. Enough to drive a lesser man to drink.

  53. Balakirev

    Al Jazeera reports that NATO Secretary General and Chief Bottle Washer Mark Rutte praised the Israeli-US action, but says the Alliance has no plans to join in. Boy, I’ll bet that’s a load off the minds of Iran’s leadership. (rolls eyes):

    https://aje.news/wwomw4?update=4356293

  54. Yves Smith Post author

    More updates.

    I have to turn in …Conor is going to fill in for a gap in mod coverage.

    My spooky contact e-mailed earlier: “I notice the US is bringing coffins containing dead service members in during the night.”

    1. Cat Burglar

      There was one report of an attack on Prince Sultan AFB on the first day of the attack, but no details on damage. Hard to imagine there have been no other attacks. Likewise, we know there have been missiles landing in Jordan, where many F-35s and other aircraft are based, but no details on the attacks.

      All those refueling tankers and the fuel dumps they draw on are out there somewhere, and if the Iranians know where they are, I bet there are many rockets raining down.

    2. AG

      All while German TV is further stiffening the anti-Iran narrative and PR. It is almost impossible to watch such malign BS and lies and hypocrisy without either smashing the set or not yelling.

    3. The Rev Kev

      BREAKING: The UAE will run out of interceptor missiles within ONE WEEK at the current pace, and Qatar within FOUR DAYS; both countries are urgently requesting military support from the United States – Bloomberg

      They won’t get it. All military support will go to Israel instead.Tough luck for the UAE and Qatar. It would be ironic if the reason that those countries are running short of interceptor missiles is because the US strong-armed them into sending theirs to the Ukraine the past few years.

  55. ThirtyOne

    The always colorful Dmitry Medvedev:

    TASS: How do you assess the reaction of European countries to the actions of the United States and Israel?

    DM: Servility and vileness. The European vassals eagerly and enthusiastically wipe their faces after receiving a dose of American-Israeli “yellow rain” directly in their eyes.

    https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/174941#

    1. AG

      Actually that´s not merely colourful – it is precise and spot on.
      “He nails it.”
      These people do not deserve anybody´s empathy or restraint or respect or…well, time. Every single minute you spend on them is lost, is wasted.

    1. Louis Fyne

      which is an empty threat. so he’s willing to nuke a Russian/IRGC divisional HQ to protect Latvia/Dubai? (and invite a nuke dropped on its nuclear submarine pens or main Atlantic naval base—-along with multiple conventional missiles at every major French base)

      hope we’ll never have to see France calling its bluff.

  57. Balakirev

    According to The Guardian (UK) today, a huge number of Britons are stranded in the Gulf, due to the closing of airspace in the region:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/02/more-than-100000-britons-stranded-in-gulf-with-airspace-closed-to-most-flights

    Interestingly, Prime Minister Starmer has stated that the UK would strike Iranian missile sites from RAF bases without somehow entering the War, because it was “the best way to protect British interests and British lives.” It adds that “The UK is expected to allow the US to use RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire and Diego Garcia in the Chagos Islands to bomb Iran’s ‘missile cities’ sites,” which certainly won’t attract the lethal ire and attention of the Iranians, no sir, not at all, not one bit:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/02/uk-will-not-join-offensive-strikes-against-iran-says-keir-starmer

    It might seem that getting the Britons out of the Gulf ahead of announcing the, you know, defensive activities against the Iranians, might make better sense. But that’s Starmer for you. Such a kidder!

    1. marku52

      For some reason, the F1 tire tests in Bahrain have been cancelled. The teams are scrambling to get their people out. There are races in the region scheduled for April…..Hmmm

    2. begob

      On a similar point, Mercouris noted that there is a great multitude of pilgrims in Saudi Arabia during Ramadan, with no flights out.

  58. John k

    It’s about 2000 miles from Diego Garcia to Iran, more to Tehran, so no closer than us bases in Italy/greece. Doesn’t seem critical in this case?
    Imo us won’t give op on trying to control gulf unless Israel, the unsinkable carrier, becomes unlivable. Granted they want to degrade idf, but us can replace f35’’s etc. Iran would have to destroy elect gen/desal/ports to push their best and brightest out, leaving the non-working religious students/settlers to carry on. If the women leave the men will follow.

  59. Victor Sciamarelli

    At “What’s Going on with Shipping” Sal Mercogliano reports that tankers are not moving in the Persian Gulf and about 2/3 of the tankers are full; 1/3 are empty. Once those tankers and available storage are full you’re in a situation where wells need to be shut down which itself is potentially problematic: 09:00 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1g7lSBUjSfI
    At “Crude Oil Prices” a historical chart is provided. I chose some selected price peaks and the oil price in Apr 1980 was $39.50, Oct 1990 $35.91, June 2008 $139.96, and May 2022 $114.38.
    The site provides the prices adjusted for inflation which amounts to $158.61, $86.03, $208.04, and $127.28 respectively.
    Adjusted for inflation the highest price since 1946 was the 2008 June 2008 peak when Iraq was not “mission accomplished” and the financial crisis was beginning. If the current war spins out of control, Hormuz remains constrained, oil infrastructure is severely damaged, tankers are attacked, and the economy/market wobbles, and you add wells shutting down, it’s possible oil will easily scream past $208/barrel.
    https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

  60. lyman alpha blob

    Keep hearing reports of various gulf states having x amount of ‘days’ worth of missiles left. This seems an odd way to measure. Doesn’t this method assume some constant rate of incoming fire? I understand that nobody is going to give the exact number of interceptors in their stockpiles, but really, how does anyone know? Some interceptors appear more effective than others, and aggressors can change targets at any time.

  61. .Tom

    What’s up with Spain?

    BBC reports

    Several US aircraft have departed the Rota and Morón military bases in southern Spain after the Spanish government denied Washington permission to use the jointly operated facilities for military action against Iran.

    Yesterday Israel took time out of its busy schedule to denounce Spain for “standing with Iran” Yahoo/EuroNews. Today Spain’s foreign minister is trying to thread the needle of maintaining the appearance of Western orthodoxy w.r.t. Iran but distancing itself from the Israel and US action.

    “That is absurd and ridiculous,” José Manuel Albares said in an interview with Euronews’ Europe Today on Monday. “Spain has a coherent foreign policy,” he said, insisting it is “coherently” implementing its position in relation to conflicts across the world.

    “We have condemned every human rights violation from the Iranian regime and we are with the people of Iran,” Albares stated, while adding that Spain and the EU “must be a voice of reason” and “put some balance into what’s happening” by pursuing de-escalation and diplomacy.

    Kudos for stepping out of line here but given that this take on Iran is BS from Israel/US I’m not sure coherence is exactly what I’d call it.

    1. johnnyme

      It looks like the BBC left out a key detail — the Associated Press is reporting that the planes went to Germany. If that becomes their new home and they don’t return to Spain any time soon, props to Spain.

      Flight map data from FlightRadar24 showed that several U.S. military aircraft had left the bases in southern Spain since the weekend attack, including nine tankers that departed Sunday from Morón for Germany.

  62. Jason Boxman

    The NY Times details how Trump is Netanyahu’s dog.

    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel walked into the Oval Office on the morning of Feb. 11, determined to keep the American president on the path to war.

    For weeks, the United States and Israel had been secretly discussing a military offensive against Iran. But Trump administration officials had recently begun negotiating with the Iranians over the future of their nuclear program, and the Israeli leader wanted to make sure that the new diplomatic effort did not undermine the plans.

    Over nearly three hours, the two leaders discussed the prospects of war and even possible dates for an attack, as well as the possibility — however unlikely — that President Trump might be able to reach a deal with Iran.

    From How Trump Decided to Go to War (NY Times)

    Dog obeys

    In public, Mr. Trump appeared to take a circuitous path to military action, alternating between saying that he wanted to strike a deal with Iran’s government and that he wanted to topple it. He made little effort to try to convince the American public that a war was necessary now. And the limited case he and his aides made included false claims about the imminence of the threat that Iran posed to the United States.

    But behind the scenes, his move toward war grew inexorably, fueled by allies like Mr. Netanyahu who pushed the president to strike a decisive blow against Iran’s theocratic government; and by Mr. Trump’s own confidence after the successful U.S. operation that toppled the Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January.

    2. ArvidMartensen

      If as reported, the US/Israeli operation to bomb Iran was decided in the affirmative on 29 January, then everything after that was planning and PR to mislead Iran and voters

  63. marku52

    It is not clear if anyone is “winning” Iran may yet be broken into a million pieces.

    But something else is lying in a million pieces, and that is the myth of US military superiority.

    1. WJ

      The aim is precisely to break Iran into a million pieces–to give it the Libya treatment. Anybody who tells you otherwise is lying.

  65. Balakirev

    Definitely late (as of February 28th), but the South China Morning Post has on offer a very broad and longish article about the ongoing war. A few of its highlights I haven’t seen widely covered here in USia. For example, they offer comments from those ever-so-wise heads at the EU. Von der Leyen is quoted as saying about Khamenei’s death, it offered “renewed hope for the people of Iran,” and that “we must ensure that the future is theirs to claim and shape.” Orwell would be proud.

    On a different note, Iran fired Fattah-2 hypersonic missiles for the first time, aimed at US bases. Two were fired as well at British bases in Cyprus, confirming that the Iranian government was aware of Starmer’s actions supporting US’s “defensive missions” sent to destroy Iranian missiles. Always nice to know you have an overseas audience, Sir Keir. Keep up that sterling example of leadership:

    https://www.scmp.com/news/us/diplomacy/article/3344994/global-powers-divided-china-expresses-deep-concern-over-us-israel-strikes-iran

  66. raspberry jam

    US state department urges Americans to depart more than a dozen countries in the Middle East immediately

    The US Department of State calls on Americans to immediately depart more than a dozen countries in the Middle East amid US-Israeli strikes against Iran.

    Americans are urged to depart using commercial means from Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates and Yemen, according to Mora Namdar, the State Department’s assistant secretary for consular affairs.

    1. The Rev Kev

      Right now there are hundreds of thousands of travelers stuck in this region unable to get out. maybe some can get a train, bus or car to an African nation and fly out from there. I guess even the private jets are grounded too.

      1. Polar Socialist

        Nope, I’ve seen several news of “security companies” hiring or buying any available high end SUV to drive VIPs out of the tiny Gulf nations to Saudi-Arabia and fly them out in private jets.

        Of course, it’s not cheap in any way or form. The bottle of properly cooled Moët & Chandon is complimentary, to make the hours long drive trough desert more bearable.

  67. JM

    I’ve seen a couple clips from Rubio on Fox that seem to be admissions against their interest. Namely that Israel did in fact force the US into this – that they knew Iran would respond against US bases if attacked and that Israel was going to attack so we had to join in. https://xcancel.com/esaagar/status/2028576292883280018#m

    The other is the reason they attacked now was in 1-1.5 years Iran would have enough missiles to be unbeatable. (So this is just an attempt to throw them against the wall while we still have a chance.)

    And a Tucker clip (https://xcancel.com/ryangrim/status/2028599187059732751#m) saying that Qatar and Saudi Arabia have arrested Mossad agents that were planning bombings in their countries. First I heard of that one.

    1. Martin Oline

      Thank you JM for the link, but the Tucker link doesn’t stream well for me. I was interested and found this claim in a 1 hour 40 minute broadcast from his 3 PM broadcast today. He does not give a source but he says “It probably hasn’t been reported, but it’s a fact that last night in Qatar and Saudi Arabia authorities arrested Mossad agents that were planning on committing bombings in those countries.” Here is a link to Tucker Carlson and the subject mentioned can be found at 29 minutes.
      Thanks again and I will be watching to see if any more is reported about this.

    2. Martin Oline

      Thank you JM for the link, but the Tucker link didn’t stream well for me. I was interested and found this claim in a 1 hour 40 minute broadcast from his 3 PM broadcast today. He does not give a source but he says “It probably hasn’t been reported, but it’s a fact that last night in Qatar and Saudi Arabia authorities arrested Mossad agents that were planning on committing bombings in those countries.” Here is a link to Tucker Carlson and the subject mentioned can be found at 29 minutes.
      Thanks again and I will be watching to see if any more is reported about this. It is interesting that Alastair Crooke has the same theme today on the Glen Diesen show, that Israel wants the U.S. out of the Mideast.

  68. Carolinian

    This new Michael Hudson says the closing of the Gulf may be a feature not a bug for the US politicians and tycoons who seek to cripple third world competition and profit off of high energy prices as home.

    https://michael-hudson.com/2026/03/negotiation-to-detonation/

    Of course the public may not be too pleased while filling up their Ford 150s so as with all things now with Trump you wonder how he plans to defy the ‘consent of the governed.’

    In the movie Civil War a huge defensive wall has been built around the White House. When the rebels blast their way in it doesn’t end well for the POTUS.

  69. Ben Panga

    This takes some parsing:

    US attacked Iran ‘pre-emptively’ after learning Israel was going to launch strikes – Rubio (via Guardian blog)

    The US attacked Iran “pre-emptively” on Saturday to protect US forces from retaliation after learning that Israel was going to strike, Marco Rubio told reporters on Monday.

    The US secretary of state said: “There absolutely was an imminent threat. And the imminent threat was, that we knew that if Iran was attacked, and we believed that they would be attacked, that they would immediately come after us. And we were not going to sit there and absorb a blow before we responded.”

    He added: “We knew that if we didn’t preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties.”

      1. Carolinian

        Yes it makes perfect sense.

        Although they seem to be getting plenty of retaliation anyway go figure.

  70. Acacia

    A few highlights from ParsToday Telegram (translated from Russian):

    US Secretary of State: Iran can produce 100 missiles per month, while we can only produce 6-7 anti-missiles per month
    https://t.me/parstodayrussian/194733

    New Type of Iranian missile hitting Israel
    https://t.me/parstodayrussian/194745

    Melania Trump presides over U.N. Security Council 🤡
    https://t.me/parstodayrussian/194746

    IRGC claims 650 USian servicemen have been killed

    USS Abraham Lincoln has retreated to the Indian Ocean
    https://t.me/parstodayrussian/194748

    US Embassy in Riyadh got smoked
    https://t.me/parstodayrussian/194752

    1. AG

      thanks
      is that a hypersonic without explosives?
      can´t make out the embassy in that smoke but i just go with the info.

    2. alrhundi

      I saw that “New Type of Iranian missile hitting Israel” earlier but I couldn’t tell if it was real or not. If it is its fast as hell.

      Also the Rubio quote is 6-7 Interceptors not anti-missiles, not sure if that is meaning the physical infrastructure or the missiles themselves.

      Interestingly he also admits that they are acting before the conventional weapons shield is established, not a nuclear shield, relating it to the fact that they could build nuclear weapons after that fact.

      Full speech and transcript here: https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/don-t-understand-confusion-marco-213013102.html

    4. ThirtyOne

      New Type of Iranian missile hitting Israel

      I’ve looked around a bit, haven’t seen any verification of that video, but WTF is that thing?

      1. Acacia

        Yes, apologies for that. I checked back to see the commentary on that post and most of the Russians seem to think it’s probably fake.

        Coming from the country whose military has deployed Kinzhal and Oreshnik, I’m going to assume they tend to know what they’re talking about.

    5. The Rev Kev

      I had to check that that story about Melania Trump was real. Would you believe that she is there talking about the safety of children in conflicts? She was talking about children in places like Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman but I bet that she never mentioned the 153 schoolgirls killed in Iran by Israel-

      https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg5ng0l35q7o

      She and Trump are a matched set.

  71. Jason Boxman

    Latest updates from Patricia Marins

    Day 3: Iran reduces launches, but shoots down drones and aircraft (Twitter)

    US-Israel forced Iran to cut back launches on the third day of the war. Last night, heavy attacks hit Iranian bunkers; several may have lost launchers, had exits blocked, or suffered silo damage.

    This is expected: Israeli and American drones with SAR sensors and MX pods detect thermal signatures and smoke patterns over vast areas, map them, and then bomb likely hideouts.

    …

    This tweet on the difference in headlines for attacks on Israel and Iran is amusingly true

    The difference is by design. (Twitter)

  72. frank

    Perhaps the Iranian objective is decolonization of the neighborhood?
    After all, Israel is an imperial outpost with rabid foot soldiers.

  73. Ben Panga

    UK headlines I don’t like:

    “The big one is coming soon, Trump warns Iran” (Times)

    Article makes a lot of effort to put distance between UK and US.

    Trump warns Iran: The ‘big one’ is coming (Telegraph)

    And from News Nation in the US:

    In his first reaction to the attack on the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, President Trump told NewsNation that “you’ll find out soon” what his retaliation will be.

    ——-

    BP: So the regime change plan looks fully to be a bust, probably even to Trump. Given there is no longer need to even pretend to care about the Iranian people, Option B seems likely to be much more violent.

    There’s a nasty combination of a childish narcissist who cannot handle any sign of weakness or not getting his way; presumably panicked calls from MBS and other Arab dictators; your only real “ally” being a fully insane Israel who are fighting for existence; questionable checks and balances from the military leadership.

    I hope it’s Trump bluster but I fear all restraint is about to be removed.

    Raqqafication?

    Worse?

    (Apologies, I lost the italics)

    1. hk

      I read someone claiming, roughly when this incident took place, that an Iranian MiG29 shot down an F15 with an Archer (R73). Weirdly, that story has not been repeated once the extent of the incident–3 downed in rapid succession!–became known, but it seems consistent with the Armchair Warlord’s thoughts.

  77. hk

    McGregor on Diesen podcast was including Incirlik among US bases among those Iran hit and claiming that Turks are keeping mum “because the base is American.” Has anyone else heard this? If true, the implications seem, eh, complicated.

  78. Ben Panga

    JD Vance appears!

    Interview on Fox

    https://www.foxnews.com/video/6390293751112

    1. Focuses entirely on the nuclear issue. He doesn’t mention missiles at all, and brushes off regime change goals. Acts as if the nuclear issue was always the only goal.

    2. Very much (as he often does) speaks about Trump’s decisions (no “we“)

    3. Relatively sounds cogent and sane. (“Relatively” is doing a lot of work there). Still lying, but more persuasively than the rest of the admin mouthpieces.

    4. Almost comically keeps talking about how Trump has set clear objectives and how that differentiates this from Iraq and Afghanistan.

    —-

    I continue to think that Vance is positioning himself as slightly apart from DJT, but as a loyal VP. His telling is of others making decisions and has no Vance agency at all.

    There’s subtext throughout the video, but I don’t fully trust my read on it.

    1. ThirtyOne

      2. Very much (as he often does) speaks about Trump’s decisions (no “we“)
      Sounds like Vance has half an asscheek on the “my future prospects” chair.

    2. hk

      He might be the president next year and, in 2028, he’ll need to run on how he inherited Trump’s war.

    1. hk

      Good riddance. The stupid thing was one of the things that set the color revolution against Park in motion….

    2. ChrisFromGA

      How long until any remaining Patriots in Kiev are packed into crates and hauled off in the dead of the night?

      Asking for a friend with a bad coke habit.

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