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What is normally a period of religious observation, or at least a bit of a holiday in the Judeo-Christian world, has instead produced a major embarrassment and probable setback for the US in its prosecution of the Iran war, via the wrecking of an F-15 jet in Iran and loss or capture of one pilot, and at least one rescue helicopter also having been downed. Because we are in fog of information and narrative, please forgive me if the information here is contradicted by later reports.
To step back a bit: the war was in great and increasingly obvious trouble even before Iran demonstrated that it air defenses, contrary to repeated Trump claims, had not been wiped out.1 The US and Israel are running out of weapons. The Trump-backed Hegseth purge of senior members of the armed servicse is developing the feel of the Nixon Saturday Night Massacre, and for the same reason: the are opposing orders to do things like commit war crimes, which are against US as well as international law. Chas Freeman has argued that Trump telling NATO members to go open the Strait of Hormuz themselves is tantamount to telling them to negotiate transit agreements.
Yet is is amazing to see supposed experts parrot pro-US talking points (see a fresh interview on Aljazeera as an example), of US aircraft being lost to friendly fire when there’s ample reason to discount those claims, and asserting that the US is making many sorties into Iran, when it appears that that is at best occasional and the great majority of strikes into Iran are done at standoff ranges. So Team Trump has still been performing well in the war of narratives.
Robert Barnes, who has a lot of Trump Administration connections, contends that the ground assault into Iran was set for this weekend, but Trump did a temporary TACO due so Susie Wiles under pressure from JD Vance managing to get some real information before him. This comes after a section where Barnes discusses yet another “no scheme is too incredible for Trump not to try it” possible later scapegoating of Gabbard for the Iran fiasco:
The transcript is choppy because that is how Barnes talks:
And as she [Gabbard] reported to Congress after the war even started, they had not found there was any evidence of any nuclear threat from Iran. And they had not found any evidence that Iran was any kind of imminent threat. And she said the president gets to unilaterally decide constitutionally whether such a imminent threat exists. But that was the only defense he could mount for the president because there was no other and the so you would think that. But the what Trump is doing is he’s starting uh what happened this past week is vice president Vance was able to persuade using data and information that we and others provided to his office, persuade the chief of staff Susie Willes that she had to stop gatekeeping Trump and blocking access to independent information and had to specifically instruct the generals, the military and the intelligence community to relay unfettered unlimited, and the energy community unfettered unlimited information about what was bad happening related to the Iran war.
So that’s why she finally did. That’s why Trump’s speech on Thursday or on Wednesday rather was a muted kind of speech rather than full celebration of victory rather than announcement of ground troops going in which is I believe what he originally intended to do. He had to pull that back and hedge it because all of this was being finally presented to him. But his reaction was rage. This is his rage is more and more out of control than it’s ever been. There’s his parts of his mental faculties. You saw him start to slur words at the beginning of that written prepared statement.
Larry Johnson in Trump’s Premature Claim About Air Supremacy and Obliterated Iranian Air Defenses tallies the US losses on Good Friday:
During his Wednesday night speech, Donald Trump made the following claim about Iran’s air defenses:
They have no anti-aircraft equipment, their radar’s 100% annihilated, we are unstoppable as a military force.
It appears that President Trump was a bit premature. The US Air Force had a difficult day on Friday:
➡️F-15E (48th Fighter Wing) — Shot down in southwestern Iran. Pilot rescued; WSO still missing.
➡️A-10C Thunderbolt II — Shot down and crashed into the Persian Gulf. Pilot reportedly recovered.
➡️2X HH-60G Pave Hawk — Hit during CSAR mission, one crash-landed across the border in Iraq. All crew reportedly rescued.
➡️KC-135R Stratotanker — Emergency squawk 7700 around 10:00 UTC near Tel Aviv.
➡️F-16CJ “Wild Weasel” (F-16C Block 50/52, SEAD configuration) — Emergency squawk 7700 over Saudi Arabia near the Iraqi border around 15:00 UTC; later disappeared from FlightRadar.
➡️KC-135R Stratotanker — Emergency squawk 7700 around 19:00 UTC near Tel Aviv.
It appears that Iran has no centralized air defense C2 or any kind of joint engagement zone (JEZ) anymore. However, as evidenced by the incidents above, Iran appears to be relying on Vietnam-style guerrilla tactics of shoot-and-scoot air defense with their passive and highly tactical indigenous system… The IR-SA-7’s (pronounced “Ur-sah-seven”). Some are specially developed missiles that can loiter at altitude, almost like a glider, completely passive, that lie in wait for one of the US older generation fighters, tankers or other support aircraft to wander too close and then hone-in.
Keep in mind that Johnson’s view that what Iran has or has left is primitive may be Oorientalism Consider:
Iran’s Majid air-defense system, officially designated AD-08, is a domestically produced, road-mobile, short-range surface-to-air missile platform that first appeared in a military parade in April 2021 and has since emerged as the most consequential weapons development of… pic.twitter.com/JI81FXb45l
— FrameTheGlobeNews (@FrameGlobeNews) April 4, 2026
Moreover, as Ted Postol has been saying for a very long time, air defense systems are a scam. Witness how shocked military experts were at the poor performance of Israel’s vaunted systems in a postage-stamp sized and therefore presumably defendable nation. Even best-of-breed Russia, with its huge layered air defense system, still suffers successful strikes by Ukraine from time to time. In a really big country, it is impossible to protect everything well, and Iran’s main line of defense has been to go deep underground. In fairness, Iran may not have made enough allowance for US and Israel enthusiasm for committing war crimes by targeting civilian infrastructure and non-combatants.
In addition, Iran has shown it is well aware of the US/Western reliance and arguably over-reliance on radar-based systems. That is a big reason Iran quickly went after THAAD radars and is now hunting their backup, AWACS jets. The F-35 is stealthy only to radar detection; it can be “seen” thermally and also reportedly emits a lot of electronic signals. And my understanding is that helicopters and jets flying low can significantly evade radar.
Iran may have also (per the THAAD case) have recognized that radars are vulnerable and may have separately made a point of employing additional means of threat detection. Recall the speculation that Iran used thermal imaging so as to track and fire at an F-35; ed Postol speculated that Iran may also be using audio surveillance, which he depicts as effective over relatively short ranges.
More from Simplicius in Disaster: Operation “Stone Age” Begins to Backfire with a tweet with an even longer list of aircraft hits:
- One OSINT account’s breakdown:
There have been several incidents involving U.S. aircraft in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of operation (AO) within the last 24 hours:
1. A U.S. Air Force F-15E “Strike Eagle” was hit by Iranian fire and crashed in Iran. Both crew members survived, with 1 being rescued, and a large combat search and rescue operation is ongoing for the 2nd.
2. A U.S. Air Force HH-60W “Jolly Green II” conducting operations to rescue the downed F-15 crew took small-arms fire with at least 1 crew member injured, but it continued back to base.
3. The pilot of a U.S. Air Force A-10C “Thunderbolt II” ejected over the Persian Gulf, with Iran claiming responsibility for shooting it down. The pilot was recovered safely.
4. A U.S. Air Force F-16C “Fighting Falcon” briefly showed on flight tracking sites squawking 7700 (emergency) over Iraq.
5. A U.S. Air Force KC-135 “Stratotanker” was squawking 7700 (emergency) over Israel.The F-16 was said to have squawked an emergency code but likely returned to base.
And the kinetic war entries from NO1:
- F-15E shot down over Iran, A-10 crashed near Hormuz on the same day. One F-15E crew member rescued by US special forces deep inside Iran; second crew member eventually extracted after a second CSAR team deployed. A Black Hawk helicopter was struck by Iranian fire during the rescue. An A-10 Warthog also went down near the Strait of Hormuz, pilot rescued. Iran used advanced passive infrared detection to blindside the F-15E per ABC News. Multiple sources: Axios, NYT via ZH, Lord Bebo, Babak Taghvaee. Confidence: HIGH…
- Iran’s sustained ballistic missile barrages hitting Israel hard during Passover.Multiple waves targeting Tel Aviv, Haifa, Beersheba, with individual salvos of 100-380+ alerts. Iranian missiles struck central Israel with cluster warheads. Iranian forces also hit Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery and a desalination plant. Kuwait intercepted 7 ballistic missiles, 2 cruise missiles, and 26 drones in 24 hours. Confidence: HIGH
- Trump proposes record $1.5 trillion in war spending. Defense budget exceeds $1T for first time in US history per Breaking Defense via Lord Bebo. No Ukraine funding in the FY2027 budget – the word “Ukraine” doesn’t appear once. Confidence: HIGH
Sadly even in the face of this fiasco, Trump is (of course) doubling down:
I just heard from a source very close to top of the White House that, following today’s shootdown of an F-15, an A-10, and the successful hits on multiple helicopters and other aircraft, the WH is choosing further escalation, including US troops on the ground. This would be…
— James R. Webb (@JamesWebb_16) April 4, 2026
Admittedly, the Janta Ka clip below suggests that people in Iran are being solicited to impede the search and rescue effort and help capture the pilot alive. They are also seeking to take down the rescue helicopters based on old fashioned visual acquisition. Nima of Dialogue Works hails from that part of Iran and says that rifle ownership and competence is common. Keep in mind this search and rescue mission could result in more losses of men and materiel.
A fresh Aljazeera update says the pilot is still missing:
Larry Wilkerson said recently that he had gotten a fresh report but not confirmed that Russia had recently delivered a large number of S-500s with Russian operators. But those would likely be in process of being integrated.
Amazingly, Trump has had the cheek to ask for a 48 hour ceasefire. What about “no” don’t you understand? Hindustan Times reports that Iran’s response included more hard pounding of Israel:
Conventional wisdom is that Israelis still support the the wars by a considerable majority. This report suggests that is starting to buckle:
Larry Wilkerson had an important and as always very informative talk with Chris Hedges.2 I had not realized that Wilkerson had flown many rounds as a helicopter operator in the Vietnam War. Wilkerson give a great deal of detail as to the comparatively few options the US has for mounting operations in Iran. He concludes that Trump will try to do something that is limited in terms of the scale of the war and any strategic impact but still showy:
In terms of when a ground operation might get going, aside from the major monkey wrench of the aircraft losses on Friday, Larry Johnson and Stanislav Krapivnik explained it can’t happen during the upcoming week due to Trump and Hegseth having yet another insane and insanely-costly meeting of all of the generals and flag officers:
The germane section from the mildly-cleaned up machine transcript:
Johnson: Um, this I just I just saw flash across my screen this news that Hegseth is calling all general officers to show up uh for a command performance at Quantico.
Krapivnik: Well, we’ve done this before.
Johnson: Well, yeah, but this this one’s going to be closed door. He’s not going to do this open session. But it begs the question if you’re calling everybody from you know if you’re calling all the general officers in command to show up well that means then they’re not going to be conducting any operations next week ground or otherwise in the theater there in West Asia and Iran Persian Gulf because the commanders won’t be there…. I understand the first time he brought them all in, Trump just wanted an audience, a big audience, but nobody does that. Nobody works like that in any kind of professional organization. You fly, if anything, you bring in the top commanders of a of a region, you give them the orders or your vision for the miss, and then they go pump out the orders for the subordinate units, … If if somebody wanted to take out 800 generals at once, you entire command structure.
Krapivnik: You know, corporations like when I worked for, Halliburton, had a policy that more than two vice presidents could not be on the same plane just in case. And now you’re getting the entire leadership of the US military all under one roof in one location again.
Larry Wilkerson, early on in a new talk with Larry Johnson and Nima, lists the grievances among the top military officials that Hegseth forced out. They go beyond the reckless conduct of the war. The chief of staff was particularly exercised about forced resignations of black and women officers. Another big issue is the interference with chaplains and an active effort to restrict all religious support and counsel to Christianity and Judaism.3
I don’t want to seem Pollyannish, but getting all the top brass together is risky for another reason. I had warned one way the Trump Administration could end or be castrated was via a soft military coup, as in officers refusing to execute his routinely illegal orders. Getting them all together facilitates communication of discontent, and in person (if they are smart about it) reduces surveillance risk.
I have not been able to confirm this tweet, but if accurate, it says the fired officers are not going quietly:
🚨 🇺🇸 Breaking:
An hour after announcing his resignation, the US Army Chief of Staff says: "A madman will lead the great US military to ruin." pic.twitter.com/OpRARGLpcT
— MENA Pulse (@MENA_Puls) April 4, 2026
In keeping:
CONFIRMED: Pentagon and the US central command is facing anxiety and confusion as Generals have openly defied illegal orders. High profile sackings on going. There's a silent voice beneath the surface…..
— Royal Ambassador (@JaokooMoses) April 3, 2026
And this turn also does not bode well for the Administration. From The Hill in GOP praise pours in for Army chief of staff ousted by Hegseth:
Republicans are rallying behind Gen. Randy George after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly fired him from the Pentagon, praising the former Army chief of staff as a steady and accomplished military leader.
A Pentagon official told The Hill on Thursday that Hegseth asked George to step down as the Army’s 41st chief of staff and retire immediately. He joins the more than a dozen senior military officers dismissed by Hegseth since the start of his term.
George’s abrupt exit — coming amid the ongoing conflict with Iran — was met with apparent shock from Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Ga.), who told Newsmax’s Ed Henry that he would be “very curious to know why” the four-star general was fired….
Support for George quickly poured in online, with House Armed Services Committee (HASC) Chair Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) lauding his efforts to recruit and modernize the branch….
Rep. Austin Scott (R-Ga.), another HASC member, described George as a “great general, principled leader, & a committed American.”…
The ouster also struck a chord with retired four-star Gen. Jack Keane, who said Friday morning on Fox News that he did not agree with the decision.
When you’ve lost Jack Keane….
Larry Johnson and Stas also discussed in detail how Iran can get oil exported. It has five ways to get it into tankers. Kharg is the best due to the ability to load multiple huge tankers at once but is hardly indispensable.
Some informational hygiene matters. First, as several readers pointed out on yesterday’s Iran war thread, Bugs pointed to this Al Mayadeen article, IRGC decries attack on US embassy in Riyadh, says executed by ‘Israel’. Second, Iran has also denied hitting the Kuwait desalination plant and also depicted that as a false flag. In a fresh talk with Nima, Chas Freeman deemed that to be credible, because among other reasons, Israel hates Kuwait the most of all Gulf states.
And some good historical background for those with the time and interest:
Finished for today. See you tomorrow!
____
1 We had argued that given early threats to deploy US forces, that Iran may have decided not to show some of its air defense capabilities so as to better lure in US aircraft for a bigger kill.
And as for Iran’s sophistication, another reminder from Chuck L:
معلومة
لدى إيران سلاحين استراتيجيين لم تستخدمهما بعد
ذكرنا أمس طائرات (حديد 110) و (أرش 2) اللي بدأت تستعملهم إيران في ضرباتها للمواقع الحيوية منذ أيام
اليوم هكلمكم عن صاروخين جديدين محدش بيتكلم عنهم، لكن جنرالات إيران أشاروا لهم ولغيرهم ضمن المفاجآت العسكرية القادمة
أولا:… pic.twitter.com/cTwZh9Unlt
— سامح عسكر (@sameh_asker) April 3, 2026
Including the machine-generated translation since I infer you have to have a Twitter account to have that function avaiable:
Information
Iran has two strategic weapons that it has not yet used.
Yesterday we mentioned the (Hadid 110) and (Arash 2) aircraft that Iran has begun using in its strikes on vital sites in recent days.
Today I’m going to talk to you about two new missiles that no one is talking about, but Iranian generals have hinted at them and others as part of upcoming military surprises.
First: Hoveyzeh missile
It is a winged cruise missile that flies at low altitudes and has a semi-stealth capability to evade radars, and to attack its targets with a small margin of error not exceeding a few meters, and according to Iranian sources the margin of error is (one meter).
Its speed is 800 km/h, a speed similar to that of Tomahawk missiles from the same family.
The Hoveizeh missile has a range of 1,300 km and a 400 kg high-explosive warhead, meaning it can destroy large areas and vital targets. It is primarily designed to strike fixed land targets such as military bases, oil installations, and other facilities. Its size makes it capable of causing significant damage, even if it is not 100% accurate.
Iran conducted a successful test of it in 2019 at a distance of 1200 km, which is sufficient distance to strike Israel from a nearby Iranian border point, and so far it has not #ايران to use it, nor has it decided yet to use its arsenal of surface-to-surface guided missiles.
Second: Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis missile
It is also a winged cruise missile designed for naval targets and flies at a low altitude close to the water to evade radars. It uses artificial intelligence to jam and accurately identify its targets, and is considered the only declared Iranian weapon that uses artificial intelligence.
The missile has a speed of approximately 700 km/h and can also be used against land targets, but it is designed primarily for fleets and aircraft carriers, in addition to land and coastal targets such as ports.
The Abu Mahdi missile has a range of 1000 km and its warhead weighs 400 kg, meaning a large number of them are sufficient to destroy and sink large naval vessels. Therefore, American aircraft carriers and their accompanying naval vessels stay further away from the Iranian coast than that distance to avoid falling into the Iranian “fire line.” This, in turn, exhausts the American aircraft on board the carrier and forces them to use other aircraft to refuel, which doubles the risk.
This missile can be launched from land-based platforms, meaning it is a force that can be launched from Iranian land at any time against enemy fleets. This makes the idea of opening #مضيق_هرمز by force a crazy and suicidal idea.
It is not known exactly how much of Iran’s stockpile of those important missiles it possesses.
But actual production of them began in 2019 and the latter entered service in 2023. According to Iran’s high production rates for its weapons, it is expected that Iran possesses a huge strategic stockpile of them that may reach (several thousand), which means that we are facing a large Iranian firepower that has not yet entered the field.
2 I have to quibble about a couple of issues. One is the long discussion by Wilkerson at the top that this war is to prevent China from building a land bridge to Europe. Ahem, Netanyahu has been trying to get the US to go to war with Iran for 30+ years. Similarly, US designs against Iran well predate China being a perceived threat (remember ChiMerica? Even after China became an economic powerhouse, we thought we were besties until 2017):
U. S. General Wesley Clark (2007): "We are going to take out 7 countries in 5 years: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and finishing it off with Iran" pic.twitter.com/jVaPRU3CpW
— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) March 6, 2026
Now it may be that the China angle got the China hawks on board. But it can’t be considered a big drive.
Second is that Hedges and Wilkerson both treat Khargh Island as the only way to for Iran to export oil. As Stas describes in the talk with Larry Johnson above, Iran has four other options.
3 When taking care of my aging mother, I wound up watching a lot of the TV show NCIS: Los Angeles, which had the fabulous actress Linda Hunt. Its cast includes the rapper LL Cool J playing Sam Hunt, a legendary Navy Seal/Seal trainer…who was Muslim. So a Muslim as an impressive military officer had been a pop culture item.
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In fairness, Iran may not have made enough allowance for US and Israel enthusiasm for committing war crimes by targeting civilian infrastructure and non-combatants. Ha Ha Ha
I don’t see the funny side.
war crimes ain’t funny –
FYI I was able to get the translation without logging into Twitter.
Oh, thanks for that!
I imagine nothing with ground troops will happen before or on Easter because Trump is now such a God fearing Christian, and violating the most important commandment might lessen even further his chances of getting through the pearly gates.
This leaves Monday, which would put him at odds with his competing religious loyalty to Mammon. So I am hopeful our military sons and daughters will have maybe yet another week of life to live.
On the other hand, rescuing a downed pilot is a made-for-tv special forces op that could happen anytime.
Saving Private War Criminal, coming to a screen near you! Supplied by AI if the rescue mission comes up empty. Narratives ‘R’ US.
fwiw Martyanov on THE CRADLE PODCAST opined that most of Iranian air defense is still intact (“afawk”).
p.s. Maybe I am crazy but sometimes I get the impression he is holding back certain info coming from his Russian contacts to not provide them to US who are monitoring his channel too of course. When he rarely e.g. evades clear answers.
re: China – that doesn´t mean it ain´t playing any role either right now 🤔
Add Postol/Martyanov and an objective person gets a very good idea of what the current situation is with regard to both sides: aggressors – major miscalculation and history lesson of the reasons for their “optimism” and with regard to the aggressed: accurate assessment of war material in all its splendour and cobbled together of nuclear weapon. These guys are subtle which is unfortunately lacking for most of the current “heads” on the various “progressive” podcasts where most of them wax eloquent on make believe strategies and operations and jump really high on the “psychological” factors (Trump) which except for actually pushing buttons is really important for understanding the full scope of the disaster. Just saying
The US has now twice underestimated (told itself fairy tales) the amount of missiles the other side had, and it makes strategic sense, if you can take the pounding, to reserve air defenses, as Ukraine did, to limit air operations overhead. Russia had the advantage of being able to launch glide bombs from beyond the AD range of Ukraine.
Additionally, (per the Nima Postol talk), you use your A/D in pop-on mode, relying on visual and thermal recognition of in-range aircraft, only turning it on at the last minute (and then moving it back underground). I also recall earlier that Iran had also deployed dummy/inflatable radar and A/D systems, which even include radar emitters.
Meanwhile, the US is running low on radar-seeking missiles (like everything else).
Brian Berletic is of the opinion that Iran decided that since that they could not defend their entire country against aerial attacks, that they let those attacks happen but kept their aerial defenses hidden so that they could use them in ambush roles when US & Israeli pilots thought that there were no threats to them or opportunities arose
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0UZAmbyfD4 (13:05 mins)
You made me think about the Russians in WW2 who operated with the same bigger picture, that it is the country who has to survive and the dice of death fall where the fall to ensure that.
Conversely, US pro-war films very much focus on the individual and up to squad level, often starting with basic training (military are heroes). The US neg-war films (Dr Strangelove, Fail Safe) focus on the big picture (military risk armageddon).
I’ve read somewhere (maybe here, NC) they also deployed numerous decoys. And not just cheap paint and canvas things, but stuff emitting realistic radar chirps and wotnot.
check these out – easy for China to share with Iran –
https://x.com/XueJia24682/status/2032084992202080532
Yes, I would like to flesh this out a bit more regarding Iranian AD, and share my thoughts. Admittedly, much of this is speculation, but I believe the logic is sound. We know for a fact that Iran possesses Buk, S-300, and at least a small number of S-400 systems, and that Iran produces a domestic analog of the S-300 (so they should have S-300s in quantity). I have only seen one video shared by the US that appears to have taken out an S-300 system (which could have been a decoy). So it seems logical to conclude that these systems are all or mostly all still intact.
These are all very capable systems, with the S-300 and S-400 systems being superior to anything the US has. I would also remind people that the Serbs shot down TWO F-117s, which had/has stealth capabilities superior to the F-22 or F-35, with an S-125 system, which is vastly inferior to the Buk, S-300, and S-400.
We also know that all of the aircraft struck have been on the perimeter of the Iranian AD envelope, despite the US regime’s claim of air superiority and “bombing” Iranian targets. This contradiction is explained by the likelihood that the US is only flying aircraft around the leading edge of the Iranian AD envelope, and this is supported by all of the aircraft spotters in the UK showing photos of B-52’s and B-1’s being loaded exclusively with cruise missiles. The stocks of these are very obviously dwindling-many have discussed this, so this is forcing the US to use other means of delivery, and that likely why we are suddenly seeing more aircraft being hit- they are likely trying to lob guided, gliding JDAM bombs into the border regions of Iran from the edge of the Iranian AD envelope. The pesky thing about AD envelopes is that they are hard to map, shift as AD is moved tactically to prevent targeting, and is also affected by atmospheric conditions.
Now I would point out several things. The better AD systems are vastly more valuable, and given their longer ranges, are likely to be sited farther into the Iranian interior. It is also well known that, while not impossible, it is more difficult to intercept missiles, so given the value and limited number of these AD systems plus their lower effectiveness against missiles, they are likely keeping them hidden, in reserve. Remember that we (and Iran) know that the US has a very limited stockpile of standoff weapons (which again, are difficult to intercept), so it makes logical sense for Iran to keep its most expensive, most limited, and most effective AD systems in reserve for higher value targets that Iran has greater confidence that they can bring down with these systems to become available – When the US depletes it’s stockpile of standoff weapons, it will be forced to use high-value aircraft, and if they want to penetrate deeply into Iran, the US will have to use it’s highest value aircraft- B-1’s and B-2’s, as these are the only aircraft that have the range for that.
So logically, if you are Iran and believe that once you reveal your best AD to American ISR, it is likely to be targeted and destroyed, it makes sense to hide it until you have targets that are a worthy trade for the loss of these systems. Iranians have shown us that they are very shrewd and capable thinkers, so I believe that they are keeping these systems hidden. I think that the evidence that we have available plus the above logic suggests that these systems are lying in wait for a time when they will be most effective, and when high value targets become available (and when it comes to value, a bomber far-outstrips the value of a fighter or ground attack aircraft- even an F-35).
Oh, and speaking of F-35’s, it looks like Iran may (I stress the “may”) have gotten one. There are photos of aircraft debris in Iran that some people have identified as components that only exist on the F-35, along with insignia for a unit that was recently created which has only ever flown F-35’s. I’m not an expert on those matters by any means, but they appear to make a pretty good case (this discussion is all occurring on twitter).
Thanks, Arkady. Very helpful.
How difficult would it be Iran to set up fake AD radar signal generators? Couldn’t they blanket an area with them and make effective suppression very difficult?
I’m speculating, but I’m not sure faking a radar signal would be worth the squeeze, because (I think) you would essentially have to recreate the radar emitter. That said, it is very common for AD radars to be turned off or in a powered, but standby mode until an attacker is well within range. The doctrine would be for a lone stationary long-range over the horizon search radar, or an airborne radar to monitor for attacks. These are typically placed/flown at ranges far enough behind any line of contact that they cannot be targeted, but they share data with localized AD systems, so this allows AD systems near an attack to basically ambush invaders.
Given that the US uses visual ISR (satellites and drones) to detect & ID ground targets and the propensity for AD to sit with radars off, I don’t think it is necessary to fake anything other than basic geometry and color schemes when creating decoys- remember the famous incident where the US bombed a decoy that was nothing more than paint on a concrete tarmac.
TLQ 32 ARM Decoy had a unit price of $1.2 million in 2006. It mimicked TPS 70/75 radars.
Fake radar emitters are standard decoy practice and deployed along with the radars
In one of their Friday talks, IIRC with Nima, one of the Larrys mentioned that they had info that the CSAR helicopter was downed by an air-to-air missile. If that’s true, the Department of War Crimes isn’t going to admit that. Iran might not either because OpSec.
Further to the F-15 v F-35 issue
https://x.com/donaldgorbachev/status/2040409351932817710
Re: “it is amazing to see supposed experts parrot pro-US talking points (see a fresh interview on Aljazeera as an example)”
The interviewee is Samir Puri, Director of Chatham House’s ‘Centre for Global Governance and Security’. Chatham house are purveyors of deluded Westoid Ukraine War cope and see the Ukraine conflict and US/Israeli war of aggression on Iran as essentially the same conflict. These are very deluded, very high on copium and very westarded.
as long as we are noting personalities,
I must point out that the british roundtablers @ 1891 created the royal institute of international affairs(chatham house/britian) the same time that they created the council on foreign relations(usa). @ 1919/1921…. for the same purpose…. to further the anglo-american empire.
And here we are 100 more years of empire games.. It’s really getting old. These networks of people provide our opinions. they decide our fate, because we are not allowed to think for ourselves.
#TYVM
The fog of war joys around a heart that’s black and blue
Tattooed Sec Def boy
Trump blaming the war on you
‘Cause he needed
To find out what excuses are for
Been reading
But man the time came to ignore
Pete’s sake went vis a vis the liar
‘Cause he thought
Like we’d like it
Little tease
But he didn’t mean it
But somebody’s gotta take the fall, doll
Generals, you gotta pay
Yeah
A good outcome was guaranteed for one and all
The tattooed one did target practice on children so small
While waiting for an apology to get called out
I, I, I, I found out what the wait was about
It was a good time, yeah, you got pretty good
At changing stories upstairs bro
You shot your mouth off and showed me what that hole was for
Now I see you
All impressed and half undressed
You got called out over the scars and lumps and bumps
Tattooed Sec Def boy
Have got you where on Fox you used to say
Well ha ha too bad, but you know what some day
“Stop snivellin’, you’re gonna make some innocents dead man”
Oh, but the prestige and the glory
Another disgusting human story
You are that
Tattooed Love Boys, by the Pretenders
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9_7xdsq-sE
Honeyman Scott’s solo in this song is my personal GOAT. Plays to the song, is in 15/8 time, and is technically difficult even discounting the odd meter.
If Susie Wiles has been gatekeeping correct information to the president as the US conducts a war then Susie Wiles should be fired and perhaps prosecuted. There have already been suggestions that Israeli moles are operating inside the Trump administration and even if Trump likes to act as though Israel and the US are one and the same, the reality as represented by oh, say, Jonathan Pollard is quite different. Our “allies” treat this now pardoned traitor who got American agents killed as some kind of hero.
Carolinian, I give you Jared Kushner, whose bed Bibi slept in when he visited the USA and David Barnea, the head of Mossad, who he talks to on the phone daily.
Do recall that Donald Trump was chosen by Divine Providence to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! which means that Those THAT OPPOSE HIM ARE OPPOSING GOD”S WILL.
If you think that is batshit crazy, look at Trump’s behavior.
He is deranged.
And when it becomes obvious to everyone that this is “Operation Epic Failure” Trump will turn his rage on the US Populace.
Because it could only have failed because he was “Stabbed in the Back”. Not by the Zionists because they are big donors, probably by ANTIFA!
ANTIFA works well because it doesn’t exist.
It’s going to get right lively on the home front, stay safe and enjoy the show.
Yes the buck stops with Trump but Wiles can be fired whereas defenestrating Trump will be a lot harder. The best way may be an impeachment on financial corruption grounds which could get the necessary two thirds support from both parties.
Its difficult to defenestrate somebody out of a ground floor window…
Just as easy as from the 70th floor.
Now bullet-proof glass, or bars, they’re another matter …
Hegemony?
I read a post somewhere a couple of weeks ago where someone pointed out that Trump’s setting up the women in his orbit to take the fall. So far it’s proven true with Noem and Bondi. Gabbard will be next when the intel proves to be wrong on multiple fronts, and then Levitt (Trump already said out loud that she’s doing a bad job.) And then Wiles I suppose (I’m surprised she survive that interview where she said Trump has an alcoholic’s personality.)
As an aside, do we know if Trump and Bondi were alone in the limo on the way to his speech the other day when he allegedly told her she’s out? You have to wonder if he got a last grope in while he did it.
If we get all the problems that many people (including me) expect, he should be impeached and convicted for starting this unlawful war. Even his most devoted cult members will find other things to occupy their imaginations before gasoline gets to seven or eight dollars a gallon. It will be like something “nobody has ever seen before.”
considering that Wiles used to work for bibi, I would assume that she IS one of the zionist moles .
🛎️ 🛎️ 🛎️
Whipple either missed that angle or suppressed it in the Vanity Fair interviews of Wiles. He either didn’t know or didn’t report that Wiles had worked for Netanyahu.
I thought it was Operation Epstein Fury?
Operation AIPAC Failure.
(One step on from someone I read in comments yesterday. Sorry, I forgot who. )
I heard Operation Epstein FUBAR.
I just saw in a comment below, Imperial Fury.
Still partial to Operation Bibirossa…
Operation Epic FUBAR!
Of course the ruling class will turn its rage on the US populace. All wars are class wars, i.e. the 1% against the lower classes.
Probably, and when the dust settles the further impoverished citizenry will need their own scapegoat and it won’t be the nice-suit, good-hair ruling classes. They still won’t bother to figure the difference between anti-semitism and anti-Zionism. All the Jews will be to blame for the rubble in typical American fashion. The ruling-class? Well, they will still be playing 18. Scotch foursome anyone?
Don’t forget them good-for-nothing coloured-folks, too, if Fox News has anything to say about it.
The conspiratorially minded among us might conclude something untoward from the fact that Benjamin Netanyahu would just happen to stay at the home of the president’s future son in law.
There have been rumors that there have been Israeli moles inside the American Executive/Defense apparatus for decades, going back to the Kennedy administration. It’s just that now, due to the abundance of alternative media sources, it’s harder to cover up.
Or at least the Lyndon Johnson administration. LBJ allowed the Israeli nuclear program to go ahead and covered up the attack on the USS Liberty.
A major reason for the assassination was to get LBJ to authorize the nukes for Israel. They groomed LBJ for this early in his political career, e.g. he gave up the speaker of the house position to become the VP. He said that the USS Liberty incident was going to be his gulf of Tonkin incident in the Mediterranean to justify the US involvement with Israel’s Six Day War, and they were going to bomb Cairo possibly with nukes, but there were not supposed to be any survivors.
The ship’s captain got the Medal of Honor for preventing from being sunk, but the President did not present it – the ceremony was held at the Navy Yard, with the Secretary of the Navy present. Did LBJ feel ashamed about facing the man who saved the ship that he – LBJ – had decided should be sacrificed for the greater good of somethingorother? Quite possibly.
LBJ was the Senate Majority Leader not Speaker of the House, Sam Rayburn was Speaker.
Yes. This story raises all sorts of relevant questions for me. If Vance had to fight Wiles to let relevant information reach Trump, then who the hell has been “advising” Trump on his military options all this time? Gabbard, his purported “Director of National Intelligence,” has been shut out. Apparently there was a “failure to communicate” with his Army Chief of Staff. Though Trump probably values the macho chauvinism of his psychopathic Crusading Warrior Hegseth, I can’t see the two of them huddling together to plan out this disastrous policy by themselves. Witcoff and Kushner are essentially Israeli agents pretending to be diplomats, but they are not capable of military planning. So who is calling the shots? Even if Wiles is gatekeeping and Stephen Miller is cheerleading, *someone* with some “expertise” must be behind this, right? Netanyahu, sure, but he has to have advisers in his administration filling his head with exceptionalist crap.
There is Lindsay who has been licking at the Donald’s lobes every chance he gets.
Maybe this explains the lack of cohesive US war plans. Nobody is actually in charge.
a subtle addition to your, I believe correct, note, but those who are in the role of being in charge are unable to plan (a pissup in a pub). But I do imagine multiple actors trying to implement Israeli needs in their own (and contradictory) way, while the short-term memory loss changes directions hourly.
I remember the first time I saw Barnes, on the Duran. He was a Trump booster then, but absolutely in love with J.D.. I don’t watch the Duran as often any more, but I happened to see Barnes there again recently. He’s given up on Trump, as have (reluctantly) both Alex and Alexander, but his ardor for Vance is as strong as ever. So, while the “Vance pressures Wiles” story may be true, it could also be pure Vance pr.
When Barnes was pumping for Trump I found him to be insufferable even though he had the occasional nugget.
Like Krugman, he is way better when (largely) in the opposition
Barnes seems to have lost faith in Vance: a couple of weeks ago, he called Vance a potted plant that everyone urinates on or something on Xwitter.
I call them the Trump hopefuls.
There is an annoying trait in that right-wing populist crowd: they are highly critical of Trump, and then there is always a morsel where they show that they haven’t completely lost faith in The Man. Mercouris (who articulates this often and clearly) typically articulates first a raging criticism of Trump and then adds what I call an idealistic “should”: Trump (that is, the true Trump) should do this-or-that that would honour his campaign trail promises of staying away from wars and all that. If he doesn’t do it, it is because of all these neocons that he ill-advisedly surrounded himself with and that are leading him into betraying his true political instincts. If only The Man would listen to himself!
I find it extremely boring arguing and feel short-changed when, after half an hour or longer of seemingly serious comment he pulls one of these “shoulds” as if there was anything in him that would still deliver any anti-war promises.
Glenn Diesen and Mearsheimer, to a degree, are included in the club of Trump hopefuls, but the list is endless and it is a good test to see who is solidly right-wing, among other things. As Yves says further down, they are good when in opposition.
It’s interesting that Vance has been trying to get information about the war to Trump but Wiles doesn’t give him access. It’s consistent with the character presented by the great Vanity Fair piece. A competent chief of staff, fierce, non-ideological and, above all, loyal. So if Trump wants something she sees to it that he gets it, even if it’s stupid war things with dreadful consequences including for Trump. Very interesting.
The same Susie Wiles who once ran an election campaign for Netanyahu
I had not heard about Susie’s sordid past. Talk about The Epstein Class!?!
https://www.reversecanarymission.org/person/susie-wiles
I have not vetted the source. But it seems lie a walking quacking duck to me…
I assume any story we hear outside of a Woodward-esque stenographer anecdotes that might come out later is rats trying to get ahead of the collapse.
Alex Jones had his rant about Trump’s state of mind and pointed to poor Hegseth’s reaction as evidence. There is a report Hegseth is firing the allies of his potential replacement.
The DOGE twerps are probably the only people who still think things will work out hence the proposed budget.
Wiles is from Florida, much like Vance’s perceived rival Marco Rufio.
Gatekeepers are a long tradition it seems. The more powerful and loony the leaders are, the likelier it seems that they attract their own “Brown Eminences”.
Susie Wiles and Dolores Umbridge from “Harry Potter”. Switched at birth? She was a “Death Eater”
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/c6/4a/6d/c64a6dc3ad9ef61d174b0a65e0730fd0.png
Nice catch!
Wiles is allegedly a rabid Zist evangelical.
as i don’t care about the source of her incompetence, i haven-t gone down that rabbit hole.
should be easy to infer if true as i imagine she has a copious video footprint from C-SPAN, social media, public appearances
Wiki says she’s Episcopalian, though she went to a Catholic high school.
One of the points Wilkerson points out in the Hedges interview is that the president says he’s deferring to the operational commanders when making military decisions and specifically names two. One is Bibi.
All done! Please refresh your browsers and re-skim if you arrived before the time of this comment
Trump’s proposal of several hundred billion in spending cuts to farmers, schools, scientists, etc to help pay for the war is par for the course but would be an unmitigated disaster. I can’t see Americans voting for that so I have some skepticism of the upcoming midterm elections. Are they going to suspend the elections? Have a false flag? Are the Democrats going to win and just endorse the war spending?
This also highlights a historical contrast. Roosevelt, but for that matter also Churchill and Hitler, understood that prior to sending people to fight and for you had to invest in the population. That means everything from public works to more holidays. Today we get the opposite, in order to motivate people to fight and die, Trump gives speeches about how we don’t need daycare, social security, and Medicare.
Good points, and those spending cuts will run alongside the oncoming economic depression.
We don’t need the straights of Whore Muse, either.
Mister Market will, as usual, sort things a la Chaos Theory.
Who is the Whore Muse, anyway? Melania? Susie? Too Much?
The Whore Muse resides in the Dire Straits.
I get the feeling that mr. market is full of s**t.
Keep those Invisible Hands where I can see ’em.
Roosevelt, Churchill, and Hitler didn’t have X, Facebook, Fox News, the New York Times, Sinclair Radio, Washington Post, and all the other warmongering propaganda organs available to them. Big difference.
More importantly, their respective audiences did not have access to any information other than what was served on the government Wurlitzer.
At least today everyone interested can see what a load of s*#*sters and psychopaths have taken over the reins of power and so we can resist with our own individual contributions. I try and imagine how much better the results would be if resistance was organised and force multiplied here in the western world, but the Epstein class has already covered that exit – we have “elections” to sap our energy away as the nonproductive sideshow. Who needs shiny objects and mirrors.
Thinking this would cause a sly smile to Leni’s, Goebbels’, and Dolph’s faces. Please. If you think radio, rallies, and the daily papers didn’t have the populace’s faces glued to them as hard and as deeply as TV and the phones, you never got to speak to anyone alive then. Radio, especially, was magic.
If someone did take out all 800 Flag Officers at once the US Military would become much more competent overnight.
You read my mind.
That depends on who replaces them. And things are *really* not looking promising in that regard so far.
No, their point is that drawing the replacements from a random pool of military or non-military could not help but improve quality and performance.
I’m picturing the conclusion of the movie Inglorious Bastards.
Next Man Up? It might not be the Colorado Avalanche’s ** fourth line. Might be a buncha White Christian Nationalists.
**BTW, Avs play Dallas mid – day today. Could be a barn-burner
What if we just slashed the number to what it was in ww2?
I hate that I read this and think ‘Ah ha! This will be the long anticipated false flag attack that ‘justifies’ major escalation, removes military opposition to escalation, and possibly wheezes some life into the corpse of domestic support in the process.’
Because that’s just nuts. It’s like living in a Tom Clancy fever dream…
Are not a lot of coups carried by colonels and lower ranks? Especially desperate ones?
There is an academic distinction between “generals’ coup” and “colonels’ coup.” The fistinction is whether the entire army is unified (in overthrowing the government) or is divided internally (“colonels” overthrow both the government and the “generals.”)
‘MENA Pulse
@MENA_Puls
🚨 🇺🇸 Breaking:
An hour after announcing his resignation, the US Army Chief of Staff says: “A madman will lead the great US military to ruin.” ‘
Win, lose or a draw, the US military is going to come out of this war badly mauled. Their high-tech missiles have been used up like they are going out of style – but China will not let them have the materials to replace them. Those are now essentially dead end programs. Weapons systems like the F-35 have been shown to be vulnerable to a determined enemy and I bet that there will be a few cancellation of orders here. And the sight of the US Navy having to stay a thousand kilometers away from a war zone lest they be sunk must be making more than a few countries do some calculations. Who knows. Maybe even countries like Cuba are reconsidering their chances. There has been a revolution in military affairs and the US military is going to have to completely overhaul itself to keep itself relevant. Will it happen. No, I don’t think so. You can expect the current crop of military officers that let the US military get into this state be the same ones to lead it out.
I assume this “quote” is simply wishful projection. I’ll believe such an action when I see it; and we almost never do. In the rare instances when top military officials object to major policy decisions they usually “do their duty” and retire silently, their consciences eased somewhat by that lucrative position with some major defense contractor. I don’t recall any Joe Kents among top generals. They usually do a Colin Powell – refusing to stand up when it counts (or doing the opposite in Powell’s case!) then making excuses and covering their ass in their memoirs later when the damage has been done.
It would be great to see General Randy hold a major news conference to discuss the insanity of our Iran discourse. That won’t happen. Even if it did, I wonder how our media would cover it? And what would Congress, including all those Republicans praising the good General, actually do in response? I’d love to find out – but I won’t hold my breath.
I agree it was too good to likely be true…but it has gotten over 2 million views in only a bit more than 12 hours on a Saturday on a holiday weekend, so it does seem to represent the sentiment of a pretty large cohort.
Powell was advised by none other than Lawrence Wilkerson, who has spent much of the time afterwards throwing sand into the gears of US war machinery.
People can change their views.
Perhaps not all of the USA leaders are cynical politicians maintaining different “public vs private” positions as HRC.
The purported quote uses says (present) and not said (past), so there is that.
Air Defense…
Professor Marandi has been saying that Iran’s air defenses are intact, and his information so far has been reliable. I think the most plausible explanation is that Iran waited until the US had used up its standoff weapons (Tomahawks and JSAM) and needed to start entering Iranian airspace.
An amusing exchange on X:
* Someone posted that Marandi is a US citizen and should run for president in 2028
* Marandi responded that he’s not eligible as he’s not on Epstein’s list
I’m so glad that I wasn’t drinking coffee or I’d have a serious mess. Dry wit is the best. As are dry keyboards etc… :-)
His IQ is also greater than 50.
That has to be one of the funniest exchanges of the present times, especially considering how mild-mannered and polite Marandi is.
Trump is demonstrating the bloc obsolescence of major U.S. weapons systems while consuming their remaining inventory. We are witnessing the slow deflation of the U.S. global military posture. The great danger is that the U.S. may lash out with its nuclear weapons in a final spasm of imperial fury.
USrael: the cornered animal. Who do we wish DID NOT have nukes?
I’m not sure the evidence bears this out. JDAMS and Tomahawk missiles are doing a pretty damn good job of pummeling Iran, and as stand-off platforms, jet-fighters are showing themselves to be a potent means of projecting American power across oceans to Iran.
The issue isn’t the weapons necessarily–they blow up real good and we can deliver them effectively. The issue is that the United States cannot produce them in quantities necessary to even begin to punish Iran like the US did to Vietnam and North Korea. Moreover, if the US could sustain such a bombing campaign over years, it would not defeat the Iranians, just as it failed to defeat the Vietnamese and the Koreans even when combined with an American ground offensive.
These weapons, effective as they are, cannot achieve strategic results–for America. By expending them, we’re furthering Iran’s strategic victory by demonstrating our folly, by facilitating a favorable exchange vis-a-vis attrition, and by exposing our impotence:
Thunder never unhinged heaven’s gate.
Bombs will not open the Strait.
Er, JDAMS should read JASSMs. I’m constantly using the one acronym to mean the other!
On Iranian air defenses. Serbian experience in 99 was that against technologically advanced adversary like US it’s difficult to use radar-guided AD missiles. US escorts strike aircraft with “Wild Weasels” armed with anti-radar missiles to target any active radars. Serbia found that it was not possible to keep the radar on for long enough to get a missile active and locked on the target without endangering the radar.
Based on that experience both Russians and Serbians upgraded short and medium range AD systems with some combination of laser, visual and thermal imaging. Iran has done the same, most of their short and medium range systems like Majid (rumoured to have shot the F-15 down) rely on electro-optical guidance.
So Iran is likely keeping its long-range systems in reserve while using shorter range passive systems to keep US aircraft from conducting short range strikes. As US runs out of standoff munitions we should see these reappear as US will be forced to fly over Iran. Using the long range systems will force US into predictable attack corridors that then can be saturated with short range AD.
“Sorry we didn’t know the planes were invisible” :)
As all the info starts go come together, we may very well look back at yesterday’s incident in Iran as a ‘black hawk down’ level debacle. Not sure how to link to individual posts. but Middle East Spectator has a couple recent videos of Iranians taking shots at passing helicopters – one was reported as police officers shooting and a 2nd was a civilian with a bolt action rifle: https://t.me/s/Middle_East_Spectator
If the US lands troops in Iran, I don’t see how they aren’t massacred.
Jimmy highlights that Chechen has said they are ready to fight side-by-side with Iran in the event of a ground invasion (first half). Such a decision could not occur without Kremlin support. Why would Chechnya, which lost many soldiers in Ukraine to the US-funded proxy, want to personally kill Americans? I imagine there are also legions of Iraqis who feel the same and Yemeni’s and Shiites in general and ……
This is the first time the US has fought an opponent that is part of an alliance (de facto, at least), which includes the planet’s toughest military, the largest battle-proven MIC, and the largest manufacturer by multiples. Given that Russia views Iran’s survival as existential, Trump is not going to be given (by Iran) a withdrawal opportunity to build a few more missiles to restart bombing next year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIcQMSrA6RE
Could you discuss the All Guns No Butter Budget.
The president said that he needs to pay for the war and doesn’t have money to pay for Medicare, Medicaid and Child Care. Considering the food, medicine and plastic shortages caused by the war, this will probably end up killing a lot of Americans.
I am sorry but I have no additional bandwidth.
I am sure you will find many posts on left-leaning sites like Common Dreams, Truthout, and WSWS on that topic. Probably Dean Baker at Beat the Press too.
#AllGunsNoButter:
> Could you discuss the All Guns No Butter Budget.
I’ll give a short breakdown … sure … :)
> The president said that he needs to pay for the war and doesn’t have money to pay for Medicare, Medicaid and Child Care.
Ah yes, nothing like leading with the “noble lie”, asserted by every president since FDR. So one again, sharpen up on your MMT! Here are a couple of my fave resources:
• Taxes for Revenue Are Obsolete (PDF, hosted at Australian Economist Bill Mitchell’s Blog)
• What Government Ought To Do: An Introduction (Randy Wray, NewEconomic Perspectives)
These two documents support the correct view of a sovereign currency issuing nation’s macroeconomic reality. We don’t need taxes to pay for things at the federal level. And every politician and economist who has suggested that the US can run out of money is flat out lying. The second document is also a defense against people who falsely claim that MMT is just a Pinko Commie philosophy for endless government spending and hyperinflation, when no such this has ever been said by the architects of the framework.
> Considering the food, medicine and plastic shortages caused by the war, this will probably end up killing a lot of Americans.
Well, if you’ve been with us at NC for a while, you will be familiar with Rule #2 (via NC) of our current horrid neoliberal world order. So sadly, yes … but this has ever been true. America, post-FDR/WPA has always been about the dismantling of all things “public good”, which has invariably led to more suffering and death, firstly among poorer/minority populations, but now, across the board inclusive of multiple demographics. The Green Party in the UK has adopted MMT, and the response from the economics and finance mainstream has been utterly predictable – a cursory search engine query for “green party uk mmt” is left as an exercise for the reader.
But Trump is not new on this. Biden used “no more money” to end COVID efforts (free vaccines, masks, tests) even as he shoveled more billions into Ukraine and Isr43L.
Obama before him had many “belt-tightening” speeches where he used the same economics falsehoods to reduce the amount government did in response to the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). I’m recalling a paper by Christina Romer that we studied. Obama did the minimum possible for Main Street while going above and beyond for Wall Street. Mainstream economists later claimed that the paltry stimulus created too much inflation!
So net-net: affordability is never the correct question at the federal level. The question is what does the government choose to spend on. And tragically, across many administrations, run by both sides of the aisle, it is clear that the US government will always choose to spend on military mis-adventurism over the public good, and resort to the dishonest economic fallacy of “we can’t afford” to justify neglect of the masses.
The best recourse on MMT I know of is Richard Murphy who has a very good web site at http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/blog
There’s an older but still very useful and very orderly exposition of MMT and its implications at Randall Wray’s MMT Primer at the New Economic Perspectives website.
It’s a book-length treatment (that was published as a book)
Maybe it’s just me; you never forget your first MMT exposition.
Worth googling Warren Mosler too, which is where the scales fell from my eyes.
Mosler is good. Stephanie Kelton is good. Wray used to post at NC but writes in very academic language and asks a lot of the reader (his responses to comments usually began with “if you read my book…”)
modernmoneybasics.com is a good resource for beginners, although difficult to find on Google (I had to switch to Duckduckgo to track it down, although I remembered reading it before).
Wray’s Blog @NEP is where I got my start … :) I was a commenter/question-asker there as he went about writing the primer.
I haven’t kept current with MMT since the Super Tuesday massacre in 2020. Wasn’t part of the theory for the USA’s ability to run a huge national debt due to the hegemony of the petrodollar? And, hence, an anticipated reckoning as the petrodollar inevitably declines?
No, not even remotely. Wash your mouth out. The petrodollar theory is bunk.
Any currency issuer (like the Eurozone or UK) can ALWAYS satisfy obligations in its own currency. The risk is not default but generating too much inflation by excessive spending v. real economy productive capacity.
The US HAS been running massive fiscal deficits for years. That is what was already set to cause trouble bigly, made vastly worse sudden real economy shortages thanks to multiple Iran war induced supply crises.
Thanks for guiding me in the right direction.
Sorry for being tart with you but the petrodollar thesis is a sore topic. I am old enough to remember the policy discussions at the time (I was doing economic relater research as a debater) and later read the declassified State Dept. archives. The widespread accounts of the motives and concerns then are fabrications. Oil trade was ALREADY denominate in dollars and the Saudis had no interest in that. The big issue was how they would deploy what was set to become a huge dollar horde so as not to give them control over the US economy or politics.
The document that first made MMT click for me was this by Warren Mosler
https://cdn.underground.net/wp-content/uploads/7DIF-of-Money-Short.pdf
I follow him on that hell-hole known as X … :)
Yes indeed, da gubment chooses to steal public resources, reward crimes, and give obscene subsidies, tax breaks etc. to their “donors” (bribe-masters). Much of this corruption has been formalized and institutionalized. Other corruption is flagrantly illegal, but ignored.
We have seen financial fraud, theft, war crimes and even forms of treason ignored, normalized, and even rewarded financially, and with the mass media MiniTrue conditioning people into ignoring it, and/or treating this as “normal”.
The US has no functioning democracy, it is run by a kleptocratic oligarchy and is rotting from within due to massive corruption and imperial “overstretch”
History rhymes: we now have an amoral, mentally-deranged emperor who is likely a child rapist, and certainly will go down in history as one of the worst war criminals. Crassus, Caligula, Nero, Commodus all come to mind rolled into one.
Fellow Chris, in the clip I heard where Trump was recorded discussing this topic, he said something slightly different. My take on a lot of what Trump says is basically the political equivalent of “2 Truths and a Lie”.
In the video from a donor lunch that was not supposed to be shared but was accidently uploaded to the White House website and available for about 5 minutes before they realized the mistake and took it down, Mr. Trump is heard to discuss Medicare and daycare requests. He said that daycare is not something the feds can really do, it has to be the states (True!). He said the same applies to healthcare (True!). He said states that want those programs should raise their taxes to pay for them (True!). Then he started babbling that the feds won’t assist with any of that or provide more block grants or whatever because we need to pay for the military, which is really the point of the federal government (WTF?).
It was much like his take on Gaza to Bibi where Trump said, without warning Bibi or US advisors first, that no one can live in Gaza now (True!), if we don’t do something different the conflict will start again and more people will die (True!), so we’re going to take ownership of Gaza and turn it into a resort (WTF?).
I can’t imagine the roller coaster people must experience being in a room with Trump once he gets on that train. Flop sweat and anxiety you can’t imagine as the President veers from left aligned truths, to right aligned truths, to something insane. But that is the pattern I’ve observed from him during the current administration. What I find interesting is the way people clip him you never hear the full lead in to his crazy point. Which is a shame because it actually makes him seem even crazier.
Anyway, back to the crazy du jour, Trump isn’t wrong to suggest these kinds of services should be administered at the state level in the US. It’s just a huge problem to be in charge and asking for a trillion plus dollar budget for war crimes and deny that the federal government has any obligation to pay for services citizens needs. I would love for Ms. Pelosi’s concerns to be valid. I dont want my tax dollars to go to my federal government anymore.
Trump’s like a broken clock in these regards, fellow chris … ;-)
Don’t forget, it was also Trump who (correctly) said ” … you never have to default because you print the money” (via CNN). See also Ben Bernanke (via YT).
> Trump isn’t wrong to suggest these kinds of services should be administered at the state level in the US
Well, again … administration is one thing … funding is another. For example, the US interstate highway system is (largely) funded federally, but administered by each state’s Department of Transportation.
AFAIU (and USians can feel free to correct me here), at one point in time, there was more state funding from the federal system, no? Was it Reagan who delivered the death blow to that?
Well perhaps not totally, but (via federalism.org):
#missionAccomplished … :-/
Trump is making real a bizarre paradigm where the national public purse exists only for guns, and the states’ public purses exist solely for butter.
From a former Manitoban MLA who has a substack and also affirms that federally, government can afford anything it decides to fund:
https://dougaldlamont.substack.com/p/handy-tips-on-what-governments-can
> federally, government can afford anything it decides to fund (that it can pay for in its own currency) … :)
Correct. It’s a choice, not a tax revenue constraint.
Presidential budget proposals are inevitably ignored during Congressional budgeting, which is lubricated by the usual stream of ex-govt lobbyists.
So i would expect these majority popular programs to merely continue their slow erosion due to grifting middlemen, regardless of which party rules.
Further to Yves’ reply:
‘A Moral Obscenity’: Trump Budget Pairs Record Military Boost With Billions in Cuts to Social Programs
“The president is now demanding a massive increase in defense spending, including a $350 billion slush fund for his reckless war with Iran, while cutting billions from healthcare, education, housing, and more. This budget represents ‘America Last,'” said Boyle. “I will be demanding answers from White House OMB Director Russell Vought when he testifies at the House Budget Committee on April 15.”
https://www.commondreams.org/news/trump-2027-budget
Trump’s plan to fund world war through social counter-revolution
The budget proposal itself includes $73 billion in cuts across domestic agencies, targeting housing, education and climate-related programs. It advances cuts that weaken even the minimal regulatory restraints on corporate exploitation: for example, reduced funding for the already barely funded Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) amidst an ongoing wave of workplace deaths; cuts to housing and urban development; and reductions in Health and Human Services, including programs that help working class families pay for heating and basic necessities.
But these cuts cannot finance the scope of the military escalation Trump is demanding. A war budget of $1.5 trillion, on top of an already massive deficit and debt burden—the product of endless war and handouts to the banks—requires far more than trimming discretionary line items. It points directly to the core social programs—Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security—because these are the only budget categories large enough to loot.
This is the meaning of Trump’s leaked remarks at a closed Easter lunch this past week, where he stated baldly that social programs must be sacrificed because “we’re fighting wars.” Trump demanded: “Don’t send any money for day care. … We’re fighting wars. We can’t take care of day care,” and went further: “It’s not possible for us to take care of day care, Medicaid, Medicare. … We have to take care of one thing: military protection.”
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/04/04/ahuk-a04.html
“Trump’s plan to fund world war through social counter-revolution”
Attempts to continue checking off the Project 2025 list, which the administration laughingly tried to deny any association?
I guess the Saudi checkbook isn’t enough to fill the coffers of the greedy:
https://houseofsaud.com/mbs-netanyahu-trump-iran-war-saudi-strategy/
Move fast and break things pairs well with never let a crisis go to waste
Budgets are moral documents, a clear statement of values.
I don’t think it is possible to define this administration’s values any clearer than this budget- all killing and looting, no succor.
The stupidest thing is the Trump can just demand the money from the Fed and it has to give it to him, no cuts require. All the dollars come from the fed and theoretically there is an unlimited supply. Of course there will be inflation, but that is what taxes are for.
I can only respond in my usual simple terms.
People on the ground don’t matter, profits matter.
To the monied class.
Because markets!
Go die!
Remember the rules!
Rule number two is going to get tested.
contested
by the uni-party?
There’s Jack Heartfield’s “Hurrah! Die butter ist alle!”, one of his photomontages from the original Nazi era
Interesting article from the intercept that Simplicus also linked too. Pentagon fudging the numbers on true casualties.
https://theintercept.com/2026/04/01/iran-war-us-casualty-numbers-trump-hegseth
The numbers will come out eventually, either in a controlled or uncontrolled way. If their communication people are good — and in this administration they might be incompetent — they will use the release of casualty information to create an upsurge of war fervor (“Support The Troops!”).
So again, a Vietnam War method of managing opinion (“Pleikus are like streetcars”) will be used to get the public to go where they want. But hostility to this war is so broad now — already at late-Vietnam levels — that is going to be a tall order.
Having been drawn into a humilating defeat does Trump choose to be enraged at Israel, which misled him, manipulated him, or does he take it out on American generals exclusively, decimating the American military leadership.
“Larry Wilkerson in Trump’s Premature Claim About Air Supremacy and Obliterated Iranian Air Defenses tallies the US losses on Good Friday:”
should actually be attributed to the other Larry (Larry Johnson) and noted below the quote.
I suspect that Iran (like Ukraine) has kept plenty of air defense in reserve for when the US runs out of standoff missiles. A/D was popping up in Ukraine for two years after the SMO started with Russia actively sought them out. Of course, Russia never was at risk (despite all the hullabaloo) of running out of missiles, unlike the US/NATO. But Russian air operations over Ukraine were uncommon and dangerous (and Russia never lied about it to its population).
oops, fixing…
Ground-based radar, yes.
Basically, the Earth is curved. If you draw a line at ground level from any point, eventually (miles and miles away) the ground “dips down”, while the line continues into space. Like a tangent drawn on a circle.
Since ground-based radar scans from the ground level up, that means a certain distance away it cannot see anything that is coming in below that tangent line. Which is something that militaries around the world have been using since forever – e.g. the Argentine attacks on the British carrier group during the Falklands War in 1982 basically had the Argentine Mirages fly just above the surface of the ocean (i.e. below the surface-level radar’s coverage) until about 20-25 miles out, suddenly pop up and launch an Exocet missile towards the group of British ships, then turn away and dip down again. This way the Mirage would be visible on British radar for only some seconds, well under a minute, not nearly enough time to vector interceptors and engage. Both Russians and Ukrainians have used this tactic extensively as well, particularly with helicopters, to avoid “big ticket” air defenses like the Patriot – though this does entail other vulnerabilities, e.g. to shoulder-launched MANPADs…or the truck-based infrared system that the Iranians are apparently using to no small success. IF you fly over the area where this system is parked, of course, because the range is fairly limited.
Air-based radar – AWACS, like the E-3 Sentry – negate this, since they can sit at altitude, which is really why they are so valuable, even today. E.g. a US carrier group’s air defense posture (something the British could not do in the Falklands) basically has (or used to have) an AWACS sitting overhead 24/7, so that you could see any incoming threat triple-digit miles out.
—–
There is a separate long discussion to be had about the real “stealthiness” of the F-35, but the basic idea is – it is not invisible to radar, even the most obsolete kind – though the obsolete radar might “confuse” itself into thinking it’s looking at a bird and not a plane. Excepting that, the real question is effective detection distance.
So here’s an example from an old issue of Aviation Week – when the F-22 (another “stealthy” machine) was being onboarded, the USAF ran an exercise (in Hawaii, I think) where they pitted F-22s against F-16s, just the planes themselves, no AWACS or any other support. The F-22 could see the F-16 from about 200 miles away, while the F-16 could see the F-22 from less than 50 miles. [The exact distances were classified, but this is what you could infer from USAF statements for the article.] What “stealth” does is essentially reduce your detection range through various techniques (smaller cross-section, signal absorption, signal scattering), and thus your response time – or give you no time at all, if the thing can launch missiles at you before you even know it’s there. But under the right conditions, you can light any “stealth” aircraft up like a Christmas tree even without having an S-500 radar or whatnot – see the F-117 shoot-down in 1999 by the Serbs.
Consequently, it’s how you use your “stealth” machines that’s important, and I am guessing the USAF and USN thus far have been fans of flying at relatively low altitudes, which is what is enabling the Iranian infrared-driven ambushes. If, as they had in Afghanistan, they stayed at 15 thousand feet, bombing accuracy would suffer, of course, but most short-ranged ground-based systems would just sit there twiddling their thumbs, and you’d have to go back to radar-based ambushes with S-300s (or Patriots, as in Ukraine), hoping you could move the thing before a counter-strike flew in (which, as Ukraine shows, does not always work).
Don’t they also focus and disperse radar waves upward,, with the result a fan-shaped (more accurately, in three dimension, cone-shaped) signal projection that also leaves gaps “below” between radars? I think the gaps at low altitudes are more significant than you suggest. I’ve seen schematics that show that.
Yes, one needs a very dense ground-based radar network (many radars situated not too far from each rather) in order to minimise the low altitude gaps (“radar dead zones”). This is effect is entirely because of earth curvature: a radar beam which departs the radar parallel to the surface very quickly ends up at quite an altitude above the surface as the surface falls away beneath radar beam.
The problem with radars close to the ground is the so-called “clutter ” that results from scattering from objects on or near the ground. This clutter obscures possible targets. However, flying close to the ground presents other risks.
Stealthy aircraft are only stealthy at certain radar bands. For example, old-style HF radars (operating in wavelength bands of several meters) can see them just fine.
The problem of radars attracting fire can be somewhat mitigated by using bistatic radars where the transmitters are not collocated with the receivers. One important implementation of this is so-called passive radar that uses ambient signals (like cellular phone base stations and DTV) to reveal targets. Another option is to place lots of decoy transmitters around the battlespace to fool rad-seeking missiles. Electronic warfare is a gigantic topic and radar is pretty near the top of the list. My guess is that the Iranians have done their homework.
Targets on the ground which generate radar clutter (buildings, hills, trees etc) are stationary. And always present. This makes it relatively easy to use various techniques (algorithms in the signal processing) to help distinguish them from targets of interest which are mobile, like aircraft. The curvature of the earth is a much more significant hindrance to the detectation of very low altitude targets.
I have F-35’s flying @ 12:00 high all the time and you can hear them from a fair distance away, the loudest jet fighter ever!
It probably has a unique sound signature which can be isolated and distinguished. I’m thinking we’ll now have sonar operators but monitoring the airspace rather than water.
During WW2 the English had listening posts all over the island to pinpoint the sound and direction of incoming airplanes. There’s no reason why the Iranians can’t do this and given the size of the country low flying planes would have a long travel time before reaching targets.
Iran Says It Hit Israel-Linked Vessel in Hormuz Strait
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-04-04/iran-says-it-hit-israel-linked-vessel-in-hormuz-strait
US-Israeli strike on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant kills 1, injures 5
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/world/mena/us-israeli-strike-iran-bushehr-nuclear-plant-kills-1-injures-5
India makes first Iranian oil buy in seven years as govt refutes claims of “payment issues”
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-says-crude-oil-supplies-secured-no-payment-issues-iran-imports-2026-04-04/
Crude oil ship heading to India diverted to China
https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/ship-carrying-iranian-oil-shifts-course-midway-from-india-to-china/article70819036.ece
Strait of Hormuz Remains Open for Russian Ships, Kremlin Aide Says
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/04/03/strait-of-hormuz-remains-open-for-russian-ships-kremlin-aide-says-a92417
Goldman Paris Is Warned of Iran Group Bomb Threat, Parisien Reports
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-02/goldman-paris-is-warned-of-iran-group-bomb-threat-parisien-says
At least 1,500 Arrested in Iran as State Intensifies Domestic Crackdown
https://iranhumanrights.org/2026/03/at-least-1500-arrested-in-iran-as-state-intensifies-domestic-crackdown/
France Refuses Rafale Source Codes to India, Triggering Major Blow to New Delhi’s Airpower Independence Strategy – Defence Security Asia
https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/france-refuses-rafale-source-codes-india-aesa-radar-spectra-ew-suite/
Leading Iranian human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh has been arrested in Tehran. Sotoudeh was quoted in Persian outlet abroad on Monday, saying the Islamic Republic’s policies “have exposed us to death.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/leading-iranian-human-rights-lawyer-detained-tehran-daughter-says-rcna266524
On arrests in Iran, the US did the same, including conscientious objectors, but more to the point, it is well known that Israel and the US have been actively recruiting saboteurs, many of whom were caught when they used starlnk ot get instructions. Those arrested are slowly giving up names and details, meaning those not caught are desperate to get out of Iran, and desperate traitors make mistakes and get caught.
And make no mistake, those Iranian traitors have the death of thousands on their souls (including the 170 girls in the school). If that happened in the US, the death penalty would be applied most liberally. I actually expect far greater morality from Iran – see how the war has been prosecuted to date by both sides. The US bombs hospitals and schools and civilian targets – and Israel shoots Palestinian babies in the head.
Sotoudeh is at best a useful idiot. I did a search for her name and the Palestinian genocide, and came up with almost nothing. One letter with hundreds of signatories. And she argues the victim (Iran) is responsible for their own rape not the rapist!
I like to think that Admiral David Beatty of Jutland fame has an American General as a descendant who is saying right now-
‘There seems to be something wrong with our bloody airplanes today.’
Well played sir……
He did actually marry a very wealthy American, Ethel Tree, of the Marshall Field department store dynasty. On one occasion when he got into trouble with the Admiralty, she declared “Court martial my David! I’ll buy them another ship!”
As the days wear on, I am increasingly convinced that–between Trump’s damaged ego/loss of public esteem and his fascistic penchant for the spectacular–we are going to get some large-scale operation, and soon. There will be an urgency bordering on desperation to pull some rabbit from this tattered hat. The clocks are ticking for key sectors where things like fertilizer are concerned (April 21 is a date that is sounded pretty regularly), and in some cases well past midnight.
Well, the MIC got into war daddy’s ear
And he cruised through an Iran last stand, now
Seems he forgot all about Little Big Horn
Like he’s a doddering old man, now
And with the Truth Social bashing
Goes cursing just as fast as he can now
And the MIC will have funds, funds, funds when war daddy takes entitlements away
(Funds, funds, funds, when war daddy takes entitlements away)
Well, the Donkey Show can’t stand him
‘Cause he walks, looks and talks like a disgrace, now
(You talk like a disgrace now, you talk like a disgrace)
He makes the country suck up to the chosen race, now
(Suck up to the chosen race now, suck up to the chosen race)
A lot try to figure out his words and deeds
But he leads them on a wild goose chase, now
And the MIC will have funds, funds, funds when war daddy takes entitlements away
(Funds, funds, funds, when war daddy takes entitlements away)
Well, you knew all along
That MAGA was getting wise to you, now
(He shouldn’t have lied now, he shouldn’t have lied)
And since he took over for a second term
You’ve been thinking that your fun is all through, now
(He shouldn’t have lied now, he shouldn’t have lied)
But you can know nothing along with me
‘Cause we’ve got a lot of shared despair, now
(He shouldn’t have lied now, he shouldn’t have lied)
And the MIC will have funds, funds, funds now that war daddy took entitlements away
(Funds, funds, funds, now war daddy took entitlements away)
And the MIC will have funds, funds, fun now that war daddy took entitlements away
(Funds, funds, funds, now war daddy took entitlements away)
Wooo-ooo-Aaaah!
(Funds, funds, now war daddy took Daycare away)
(Funds, funds, now war daddy took Daycare away)
Wooo-ooo-Aaaah!
(Funds, funds, now war daddy took Medicare away)
(Funds, funds, now war daddy took Medicare away)
Wooo-ooo-Aaaah!
(Funds, funds, now war daddy took Medicaid away)
(Funds, funds, now war daddy took Medicaid away)
Fun, Fun, Fun, by the Beach Boys
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VF_o-N0fhZ0&list=RDVF_o-N0fhZ0
Boy, they stole that opening riff note for note from Chuck Berry. I doubt he ever saw a penny in royalties. No wonder he had anger issues.
Nice work!
Wuk if you take requests, I’d love to see a hymn heard often in my childhood : Onward Christian Soldiers. I’ve been intending to do it myself but it’s not my area of talent.
Although the original words fit this madness already :)
1. Onward, Christian soldiers,
marching as to war,
With the cross of Jesus
going on before!
Christ, the royal Master,
leads against the foe;
Forward into battle,
see his banner go!
Refrain:
Onward, Christian soldiers,
marching as to war,
With the cross of Jesus
going on before!
2 At the sign of triumph
Satan’s host doth flee;
On, then, Christian soldiers,
on to victory!
Hell’s foundations quiver
at the shout of praise;
Brothers, lift your voices,
loud your anthems raise! [Refrain]
3 Like a mighty army
moves the church of God;
Brothers, we are treading
where the saints have trod;
We are not divided;
all one body we,
One in hope and doctrine,
one in charity. [Refrain]
4 Onward, then, ye people,
join our happy throng,
Blend with ours your voices
in the triumph song;
Glory, laud, and honor,
unto Christ the King;
This thro’ countless ages
men and angels sing. [Refrain]
I think bothering to post that was a pretty good first stab!
World loses patience with Trump as war is no longer just about Iran
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-04/iran-volodymyr-zelenskyy-gulf-strait-of-hormuz-macron-merz/106511122
FBI labels data breach ‘major incident,’ notifies Congress
https://thehill.com/policy/technology/5815310-fbi-data-breach-surveillance-system-major-incident/
Bolton: Trump likely in ‘panic mode’ after Iran attacks US fighter jets
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5816042-john-bolton-donald-trump-iran-us-fighter-jets/
Iran threatens to bomb 1GW Stargate AI datacenter in Abu Dhabi
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/iran-threatens-to-bomb-1gw-stargate-ai-datacenter-in-the-uae-shows-hidden-/articleshow/130003120.cms
Russia evacuates 198 more staff from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant, agencies report
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-evacuates-198-more-staff-irans-bushehr-nuclear-plant-agencies-report-2026-04-04/
“World loses patience,” presumably true, is pathetic.
Just because Bolton said it does not make it untrue :-)
Lol, even a pig with four pounds of mustache can sniff out a truffle now and then!
The USA is the centre of an empire which changes its characteristics as a nation-state. Rather than an average nation state it is more a cetre of powerful factions on US-based agenda. Its consituent vassal nation-states change character and become centres of provincial factions.
Faction lines blur by political and bureacratic position and to make it even more complex it is usual for power-brokers to have multiple factional affinities to varying levels.
That’s the model.
The old ‘democratic state’ model was transformed away from long ago. In fact the electorates aren’t even factions any more as they have been neutralised by manufactured culture wars. The modern equivalent of Roman circuses.
This factional make-up of the empire is a strength. It allows rapid shifting of goals should one line of attack be blocked. The shifting from Ukraine to Iran exemplifies this. This is why US goals are so difficult to untangle: there as many goals as there are factions.
The factional make up is also a weakness as there’s always other factions that want take resources away from a dominant faction(s) and pursue their own goals elsewhere. You can bet the anti-China factions are making their cases to walk away from Iran right now.
My point is that trying to see the USA as a democratic republic with an electorate, a congress, a senate and a president is actively detrimental to understanding what is going on. Instead the power brokers throw up a consensus candidate that tries to appease the factions that empowered them. Usually all at the same time.
Democracy is factions. It’s special interests all the way down. Politics has always been special interests. Interpersonal relationships are special interests. Anyway that’s what dictatorships are for, the alignment of special interests.
Re: Wilkerson footnote quibble – before this brouhaha kicked off, and it may have been before the 12 day war besides, I distinctly remember multiple talks where Wilkerson espoused the more traditional dog-to-tail dynamic for USA and Israel – the Brian Berletic position – rather than the inversion that’s becoming increasingly popular for alt-media consumers and commentators. “It’s the Chinese land bridge, stupid!” seems to me like an externality of the insistence that Uncle Sam, superman that he is, is always in the driver’s seat with Aunt Esther riding sho’gun.
Personally and as an ignoramus aspiring to a scintilla of the knowledge of those who really do this for a living, it is very difficult for me to understand commitment to the Wilkerson/Berletic perspective at this point. At best, arguing that it’s a web of entanglements and interests – always the case in the real world – is perfectly viable. I just don’t see the Greater Columbia Master Plan here.
My take re Wilkerson & Berlitic is that an institutional interest derived from Sykes Picot and the British Empire has aligned historically with and in fact engendered Zionism.
But in the present case, while all those interests persist, personnel has become policy: proximity of Wiles, Witkoff & Kuchner between Bibi & The Don has hijacked the entire apparatus for the sole purpose of Bibi’s survival.
So, while the dog knowingly walked into dangerous territory with it’s own intentions there, it suddenly finds itself savagely being wagged by its tail. Should it get its feet back on the ground, I wouldn’t expect it to back off, but would expect it to become more resistant to radical self harm.
I think you’re broadly right, but insofar as there is something exceptional about the Israel situation prior to the present moment – we still have the USS Liberty. Israel has always been exceptional. I think it might’ve been Berletic who said something to the effect of “we’re ‘just’ using them” and the just is what I really can’t square.
I believe Mearsheimer suggested that if the USA were using Israel, the amount of Lobbying done by AIPAC would be an unnecessary expense.
Maybe the dim USA politicians are unaware of how valuable it is to have Israel as an “ally” and it takes AIPAC money and fear to make them see the light.
It seems it would be less trouble for the USA to simply invade and conquer the Middle East oil containing countries as the USA knows their weaponry quite well as they bought it from the USA.
This would be direct control of the mideast oil.
Israel doesn’t have oil, unless one counts the Gaza Mediterranean gas fields.
This resource grab policy is captured by Elon Musk’s remark that “we’ll coup who we want” when the USA wants lithium in south America.
I’m really tired of war.
One thing that really bugs me is falling into the trap of discussing equipment, the implications that our $1.5 trillion per year MIC budget is a discussion point. We have lost the game by tolerating discussions of war, weaponry, the sin of taking other life. Why is this not on the Pro-life anti-choice agenda?
Why is this not on the pulpit of every faith-leader, regardless of their “Book” and Prophets?
Talk about waste of money, stranded assets, obsolete tech, over paying for nuthin….
What if the US simply said, “we are done”. We are starting on a commitment to a war-free, for-humanity, for all species, for our Spaceship earth sustainable path.
Join Us.
And woe to anyone who wants to try to invade a nation- state loaded for bear. ”
Create a No-Thugs Zone, perhaps a series of Trump resorts, where we send and monitor the Epsteiners. Reverse the locks in Gated Communities.
I have a funny feeling this might resonate with a simple majority. Perhaps globally.
And we outta do it sooner than later, as we get simpler and simpler by the bit and byte, the nano-second.
Tokin’ Hopium in Utopia. A powerful trip in a faraway land…
how many years of peace has the US had in its existence? (answer almost all) hard to imagine (John Lennon was killed) it changing without a breakup of the union.
I assume you mean internal peace because the US has been at war with someone for almost all of its existence…
I think its a handful of years with no war out of several hundred. At some point, it should be bloody obvious that the US is a war society – and when war societies cannot fight an external war (due to weakness), they typically turn to internal war as different regions desire go their own way at the expense of other regions – the center cannot hold and dialogue and negotiations are not “the way” for a war society. It’s not as if there is a rule that a society can only have one civil war.
However, this time, external actors are more powerful than the US and are incentivized to ensure the US fractures (as it planned for Russia, Iran, and China).
Oh, boy. It looks like the jet downings ate other important and very bad news:
Oh crap. Now they have done it. That means that even less oil will be leaving the gulf causing prices to climb even further. I wouldn’t want to be the ruler of a Gulf State country right now as I would be nervously looking at my own refineries.
We’re starting to get reports of fuel shortages in Florida here in the US:
https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/south-florida-iran-war-gas-shortages/
Looks like that summer vacation might become a staycation. Bring back the Sars2-Covid pandemic nostalgia!
1979, by Smashing Pumpkins
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4aeETEoNfOg&list=RD4aeETEoNfOg
The must have vehicle of 1979 was a VW Diesel Rabbit, as there was no restrictions on diesel and plenty of availability, while other octane drivers waited in line. They sold for 30-50% over MSRP if you could find one new.
The crazies are all on the case. Z proudly reducing Russian exports. Israel stopping Iran refineries means gulf state refineries are toast. Maybe next will be Iranian oil fields which means gulf exports down for years.
We’re all gonna have to get used to it, maybe looking back wistfully to $10/g gas for the cars we can no longer afford to drive. Go long bicycles.
I wonder how much longer iran will allow those Saudi pipelines to operate.
Not just one site
Trump threatens to rain ‘hell’ on Iran after strikes hit key petrochemical facilities (The National – I think a UAE based site)
US President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened that hell will rain down on Iran if it does not make a deal before his April 6 ultimatum expires, hours after Iranian authorities accused the US and Israel of striking key petrochemical facilities.
“Remember when I gave Iran ten days to make a deal or open up the Hormuz Strait. Time is running out – 48 hours before all hell will reign down on them. Glory be to God!”, he said.
Mr Trump had threatened to target Iran’s energy infrastructure, power plants and bridges if Tehran did not agree to a deal by next Monday.
On Saturday, Iranian authorities accused the US and Israel of striking key petrochemical facilities in the south-western province of Khuzestan on Saturday, in a major escalation targeting the country’s energy infrastructure if confirmed.
The US and Israel have yet to comment on the claims. US President Donald Trump had threatened to target Iran’s energy infrastructure but said such strikes were on hold pending a potential deal, with a deadline set for April 6.
Valiollah Hayati, deputy governor of Khuzestan, told the semi-official news agency Tasnim that explosions were first heard in areas east and west of Ahvaz, the provincial capital, with no immediate reports of casualties. Minutes later, more powerful blasts struck the Mahshahr Special Petrochemical Zone, one of Iran’s most important industrial hubs.
He said several major facilities, including the Fajr 1 and 2, Rejal and Amir Kabir plants, were directly hit, warning that casualties were likely.
Iranian officials later reported at least five people injured across Mahshahr and Bandar-e Imam Khomeini, where further strikes caused partial damage to petrochemical infrastructure.
Separate strikes were also reported at the Shalamcheh border trade terminal near Khorramshahr, a key commercial crossing, in an apparent broader strategy to disrupt energy production and logistics in the province.
Authorities said industrial units in the Mahshahr zone were evacuated after the attacks. They said any hazardous materials released so far did not pose an immediate threat to nearby communities.
If confirmed, the strikes would mark a significant widening of the conflict, directly targeting Iran’s petrochemical sector – a critical pillar of its economy and a major source of export revenue.
The zone hosts dozens of petrochemical complexes producing important export commodities such as methanol, ammonia, polyethylene and other polymers, much of which is shipped to Asian markets. Facilities such as Fajr and Amir Kabir play a central role in supplying feedstock, power and processing capacity across the sector.
Analysts say sustained attacks on these facilities could disrupt domestic fuel supplies, reduce export capacity and place further strain on global energy markets already rattled by the closure of key shipping routes.
There are also concerns over environmental fallout, the risk of secondary explosions in densely clustered industrial zones and the potential for retaliatory strikes by Iran, raising the prospect of a broader and more sustained escalation.
—-
Trump TS post. The God bit jfc.
Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT. Time is running out – 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them. Glory be to GOD! President DONALD J. TRUMP
—-
Russia evacuating more people from Buesehr nuclear plant.
https://nitter.net/mintelworld/status/2040418677145620696
—-
We could be in for a wild ride leading up to Trump’s deadline.
—
Happy Easter!
“Glory be to God” while threatening Hell. Doesn’t that mean he’s really working for the Devil?
Trump trying to be holy is as moronic as every other part of him. Bringing religion into all this is really the shameless last resort.
IDF claims responsibility for attack
Times Of Israel
The IDF confirms bombing petrochemical facilities in southern Iran earlier today, saying the sites were used by the regime to manufacture materials for ballistic missiles.
According to the military, the strikes led to a halt in all production of the chemical materials, and are also expected to cause billions of dollars in financial damage.
The Fars news agency reported earlier that several facilities at the Mahshahr Petrochemical Special Zone in the Khuzestan Province were hit by strikes, and that five people were wounded.
Last week, The Times of Israel reported that Israel’s political leadership instructed the IDF to shift to striking “economic targets” in Iran, aimed at causing massive financial damage to the regime.
“… saying the sites were used by the regime to manufacture materials for ballistic missiles…”
They said the very same thing about needing to bomb that iconic Iranian bridge—that it was being used to bring in parts or materials needed for missiles, when in fact the bridge wasn’t even completed yet. This is going to be their pat justification for any bombing anywhere, whether military or civilian, industrial or energy-related.
Not good! More up the escalation ladder.
Is the reference to the dollar and Treasuries related to this Kevin Wahmsley report?
Now everyone is dumping US government bonds https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izq542VdD8s
And if you look on Google Earth, that oil refinery complex is huge. I suspect a reply-in-kind is going to be equally bad for ISR and SA.
Yes, this is true, quite literally flying “under the radar”. You will also see it called terrain masking or ground hugging (the wiki article title is nap-of-the-earth ). Hostile air defence radars have a blind spot below the horizon due to terrain interference with returning radar waves and due to the curvature of the earth. This gives any aircraft a safe zone of ~50m (more with physical obstructions like hills/mountains in the radar path) where they can operate without being detected. Same idea by flying low in mountain valleys. In fact before “stealth” technology became a thing, the primary strike/interdiction approach of both NATO and Warsaw Pact air doctrine into the 1980s was built around low flying strike aircraft like the Panavia Tornado and SU-24, which were purpose built for these kinds of missions with variable geometry “sweep-wings” and terrain-following radars on the planes that let them fly low and fast in all-weather night or day, which obviously would normally be extremely dangerous. Very hard to detect this way, and very short engagement windows even if you do. Also difficult to engage these aircraft from air superiority aircraft in the sky before the development of specialized look-down/shoot-down radar systems because ground-reflected radar waves essentially blinds you; think of it like shining a powerful spotlight into a mirror and trying to make out details. A rather difficult problem to engineer around!
The naval of version of this is called “Sea Skimming” and it is employed by many anti-ship missiles since the 1970s.
US agents arrest niece of Iran’s Qassem Soleimani after Rubio revoked green card
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-agents-arrest-niece-irans-qassem-soleimani-after-rubio-revoked-green-card-2026-04-04/
Iran says new air defence system used to target US fighter jet
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-new-air-defence-system-used-target-us-fighter-jet-2026-04-04/
irony alert: i’ll be willing to bet Soleimani’s niece as a pro-American liberal (in the classical sense).
just like in 2002, the West’s actions (bombing Tehran civilian targets) only discredits Iranian pro-West liberals, and may even radicalize them to Shia Revolutionism
It just occurred to me, if Trump does attempt to occupy the islands off Iran to try an open the straight, will he then also try charging a fee to allow non allied ships through? Given his obsession with having other countries pay for things it seems likely.
It also seems likely he’d keep changing the fees, and which countries they apply to, on a weekly basis.
Thanks so much, Yves. Your daily news roundup of the war is by far the best on the internet!!!
> If if somebody wanted to take out 800 generals at once, you entire command structure.
That was true of the first gathering as well. This one decapitates command structure temporarily everywhere, and then there’s:
: Iran denies attack on embassy, which institution is both sovereign and strategic;
: Dominionist ambitions, in action re- Mrs. Kirk;
: Remember the Liberty.
If I’m a general I’m dropping a piece of paper on a dirt lane, and pointing it out to someone, which shows plans for an attack on the FlagMoot. And I am not nohow noway showing up. Testing the ‘Enemies Domestic’ hypothesis.
Oracle building in Dubai hit by debris from missile intercept:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4572516-oracle-dubai-building-hit-intercepted-projectile
A couple random thoughts:
1. Even though the damage was likely minimal, a message was sent. They’re going after the real leaders of Team Epstein. No point going after Trump, or Miss Lindsay. They’d just be replaced by another stooge of the Big Tech/MIC/bastard spawn of Beezelbub. Pair this with the clever Lego videos, and it starts to look like a very sharp infowar campaign. Gen Z/Millenials are paying attention. So is this Gen-Xer.
2. Western ammo depletion continues apace. More interceptors spent that will never go to the Green T-shirt.
UAE is heavily censored and lies about strikes. They never acknowledge them and always cite debris from interceptions.
My 2c would be this was a successful strike not an intercept.
Trump warns he’ll ‘reign down hell’ on Iran within 48 hours unless Strait of Hormuz is opened and peace deal is made
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-iran-threat-strait-of-hormuz-b2951875.html
“reign” ?
Maine Is About to Become the First State to Ban New Data Centers
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/maine-data-center-ban-e768fb18
Nearly half of US data centers planned for 2026 are facing delays or cancellation
https://www.techspot.com/news/111947-nearly-half-us-data-centers-planned-2026-facing.html
Go Maine!
“reign” vs. “rain”
You’d think that the guy could use grammarly or one of those other spell-checking tools, wouldn’t you?
More evidence of white-matter disease. Poor impulse control, lack of patience, discipline.
God, please save us all.
Such tools would probably anger him by flagging his use of capitals.
Makes me think he’s speaking rather than typing his posts and having the platform transcribe them
Trump may soon be in hell, but I don’t know if Beelzebub will give up the throne to him.
The global oil crisis is turning into an everything crisis (CNN via archive.ph)
Not news for NC readers
America is gonna be going great soon, no?
If only we could stop putting plastic on everything
I won’t miss packaged stuff coming in individually wrapped plastic bags, like, why?
In all seriousness, though, look around your house any try to identify anything that doesn’t have some plastic derivative in it if not completely plastic in and of itself.
Yes, talking to the family electrical contractor on Good Friday here in Australia, already having problems sourcing electrical conduit, still getting cabling but the insulation has got to be a problem.
Another aluminium plant was hit yesterday as well, the pot line is frozen and will take at least a year on top of the bomb damage. US is badly placed for aluminium if I remember right.
Visiting the Korean mainland right now and you wouldn’t know that anything is happening. Tourists (myself included) are all out and about, and so far I haven’t seen any businesses doing anything differently. Car traffic remains constant. CJU airport was jam-packed, busiest I’d ever seen it.
Secretary Rubio Revokes Green Cards of Foreign Nationals with Ties to Iranian Terror Regime
I wonder if the purge of military leaders is for the purposes of weeding out many who would not follow orders if Trump declares martial law and makes himself (in effect) President For Life. Maybe in anticipation of a false flag event that Bibi and company are readying for him now. If he’s losing the foreign campaign, maybe he can blitz the domestic opposition, Lock Them Up, and buy himself more time to bulk up and return to battle Over There.
Thing is – can we bulk up? US defense spending is $2700 per capita, 330 M population. Iran: $115 per capita, 90 M population.
One would think this war would have been a cakewalk for the US, but…
What we can bulk up is military-industrial grift.
Source
I just mentioned this to a coworker who was doing some chest thumping about the U.S having the most powerful miltary and how much destruction we were causing. How we had killed so much of the Iranian leadership. Had to tell him Iran only spends about 10billion$ on its military vs the u.s’s over a trillion. Yet Iran for the first is exercising control over a vital global shipping passageway. Had to inform him how they could very likely generate billions a year in new revenue via tolls on the strait. And our vaunted navy a month into this war is still staying atleast hundreds of miles away. We can can kill and destroy all we want but are likely to lose all the political objectives if the government and the state stay in tact. Effectively losing the war. All the while gambling with the world economy, potentially plunging the globe into an economic depression. But good grief, there are so many information eco systems and bubbles spreading outright disinformation that it feels futile having these conversations right now.
If we want to really limit the effectiveness of Iran’s paltry military spending, we would introduce them to the concept of cost-plus military contracting.
Wilkerson and Johnson discuss this possibility with Nima in the Dialogue Works video linked in the post starting at about the 10 minute mark. They don’t go into specifics like declaring martial law but the politicization of the military does seem to have them concerned.
U.N. resolution on Strait of Hormuz tabled indefinitely due to Chinese opposition to any mention of use of force:
https://thearabweekly.com/un-vote-hormuz-resolution-delayed-china-opposes-use-force
Taco’s no good, bad weekend continues.
Oh, Bahrain presides over the UNSC right now! Thank you for that gem.
You’re welcome, happy to contribute information. I think China and Russia have wisely concluded that any resolution that authorizes the use of force, no matter how watered down or couched in careful language like “in proportion to the circumstances”, will only be used as a legal fig-leaf for more aggression by Team Epstein.
Karlof1, a commenter over at MoA, has a lengthy write-up on Lavrov’s comments to this effect:
https://karlof1.substack.com/p/lavrov-reveals-who-lurks-behind-bahrains
And, off topic, but in the interest of saving moderators’ time, I am adding this link:
The Intercept is on the ball, revealing Kegsbreath cover-up of US casualties:
https://theintercept.com/2026/04/01/iran-war-us-casualty-numbers-trump-hegseth/
“I think China and Russia have wisely concluded that any resolution that authorizes the use of force, no matter how watered down or couched in careful language like “in proportion to the circumstances”, will only be used as a legal fig-leaf for more aggression by Team Epstein.”
They probably remember what happened in 2011 when they refrained from vetoing a resolution authorizing a no-fly zone over Libya.
The result: various European countries sent their air force and their navy to attack the Libyan military; they also despatched special operations troops (and even regular infantry in the case of Qatar) to support the rebels on the battlefield in their fight against Gaddafi.
Now no need to wonder
What I’m a-gonna do.
There’s only one cure
For the Hormuz blues
I’m a-gonna raise a fuss
I’m a-gonna raise a big stink
About Trump’s war in Iran
That’s bringing us to the brink.
Blackhawks down, Pete Hegseth’s a clown.
While Susie guards the gate,
Gasoline’s through the roof
‘Cause Iran controls the strait.
Sometimes I wonder
What I’m a-gonna do
But there ain’t no cure
For the Hormuz blues
[Verse 2]
Well, Trump and JD told me,
“A vote for us means no more war,”
Now we’re in and can’t get out
While my gas and grocery bills soar.
Well, I ain’t goin’ to work
On May Day Twenty-Twenty-Six
Get rid of all the AIPAC-owned
Is our only hope of getting this fixed.
Now no need to wonder
What I’m a-gonna do.
There’s only one cure
For the Hormuz blues
“Summertime Blues,” Eddie Cochran
Original version The 60’s version I knew
New Iran friend?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tc2PC1OYic8
There was a rumor re that a couple of days ago, but seems to be moving closer to being real.
Chechens are badasses.
I have been quietly hoping for this. #Inshallah #TYVM jo6pac.
It would really be the third coming, but wouldn’t it be something if we nuked Iran on Easter?
Pandora’s Box pox.
Re-defining Mister Market’s Magikal Easter Basket of Goods?
Iran approves humanitarian passage through Strait of Hormuz: Report
Russia Is Arming Iran Through 2027 With Missiles That Could Target US and Israeli Jets
https://united24media.com/world/russia-is-arming-iran-through-2027-with-missiles-that-could-target-us-and-israeli-jets-17448
Eight Muslim-majority countries condemn Israel’s new death penalty law
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/eight-muslim-majority-countries-condemn-israels-new-death-penalty-law-2026-04-02/
US targets Chinese chipmaking with proposed export restrictions on ASML and others
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-targets-chinese-chipmaking-with-proposed-export-restrictions-asml-others-2026-04-03/
Trump plans spending $377M on executive residence renovations – plus $174M more
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/03/trump-plans-spending-377m-on-executive-residence-renovations-and-wants-174m-more-00858810
Iranian Strike on U.S. Embassy Caused More Damage Than Disclosed
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-us-embassy-iran-strike-damage-b924d29c?st=kg545D
Trump’s DOJ tells Trump he can hold onto government docs when he leaves office, contrary to Watergate-era law
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/03/politics/trump-presidential-records-act-watergate
Is this the embassy attack suspected to be a false flag op?
Iran strikes control tower, radar installations in Ben Gurion Airport
Iran strikes Ben Gurion: https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/iran-strikes-control-tower–radar-installations-in-ben-gurio
US deploys bulk of stealthy long-range missiles for Iran war
The US military campaign against Iran will commit nearly its entire inventory of stealthy JASSM-ER cruise missiles, drawing them from stockpiles devoted to other regions.
After the moves, only about 425 JASSM-ER out of a prewar inventory of 2,300 will remain available for the rest of the globe.
The US has used large numbers of long-range weapons like JASSM-ER for strikes, limiting the risk to service members but reducing stocks of systems meant for more capable adversaries such as China.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-04/us-deploys-bulk-of-stealthy-long-range-missile-for-iran-war
Iran says new air defence system used to target US fighter jet
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-new-air-defence-system-used-target-us-fighter-jet-2026-04-04/
Ha I was about to post the same article :)
Archived version of Bloomberg
Another para from article
The order to pull the $1.5 million weapon from Pacific stockpiles was issued at the end of March, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter. Missiles at US facilities elsewhere, including the continental US, will be moved to US Central Command bases or Fairford in the UK, said the person, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive details.
If China starts something in the Pacific, US troops will have nothing to counter them with except “Fix bayonets!”
I expect standard bayonets have been discontinued. Their replacements, with Smart Target Acquisition and Integrated Battlefield Response Awareness, are awaiting parts from China.
Israel is provoking war between Iran and the GCC states. Therefore, Iran should do the exact opposite. It could create a network with countries that Israel already threatens, namely Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Together, they have the power to force Israel to calm down, especially since Pakistan already has a large number of nuclear weapons
Assad’s Syria was welcomed back into the tent, and promptly had its throat slit.
The GCC countries are not victims in this war. They chose the side of the agressor when they allowed the US to use their territories to attack Iran. Besides, the only country that could “force Israel to calm down” is the USA, and that ain’t gonna happen.
In reality, there isn’t anything that Iran can do that guarantees, for sure, that Israel won’t use nukes. They already have the capacity to make Israel uninhabitable by conventional means, which is as good as a nuclear deterrent. And still Israel continues to escalate in this
FWIW, 500,000 metric tons is 3.7m barrels, which means this could go a long way to help the Iraqis generate revenue and the Europeans to fill some supply gaps (my understanding is fuel oil similar to diesel, but definitely not an expert):
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260404-syrian-petroleum-says-500000-tons-of-iraqi-fuel-to-transit-monthly-to-baniyas/
But according to TASS, Iraq may pass Hormuz:
https://tass.com/world/2111939
Soleimani’s niece arrested as counter hostage for US airman?
Well, it has pedigree: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sippenhaft
The plot thickens:
Soleimani’s daughters deny relation to women arrested in US
When I saw the headline earlier I had a hard time believing that particular family would have moved to the US. Apparently it was just more Keystone Kop Krusades.
…”The arrest followed Jewish political activist Laura Loomer’s social media report about their presence in the U.S. and their false claims of blood relation to Soleimani.
This confirms Loomer’s significant influence over the Trump administration and her support for escalating the war with Iran.
Iranian Anon: Judging by her surname “Soleimani-Afshar,” she might be an Afshar Turk from the Iranian Northeast near Mashhad. Qasem Soleimani, on the other hand, is from the opposite end of the country, near Kerman in the South…”
https://x.com/nucleusprime/status/2040701110583795854
Iran targets US public opinion with online information war
https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260325-iran-targets-us-public-opinion-with-online-information-war
US military jets hit in Iran war are the first shot down by enemy fire in more than 20 years
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/04/us-military-jets-hit-in-iran-war-are-the-first-shot-down-by-enemy-fire-in-over-20-years-00859175
Israeli strikes damage hospital in Lebanon’s Tyre; ground invasion advances
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/4/israeli-strikes-damage-hospital-in-lebanons-tyre
In the 1991 Gulf War the U.S. led coalition lost 75 aircraft. Thirty-five years later two is too many.
Partly a reflection of the neoliberalisation of the economy, and transformation from a proper industrial economy to the finance/scam economy that we have now. They hardly build any great number of aircraft now, and the ones that do get built are in tiny numbers. The most replaceable is probably the F-35 ironically since that one is built in the highest numbers. The E-3 AWACS that were lost are quite literally irreplaceable, as in they aren’t built at all anymore and it’s replacement, the E-7 Wedgetail, is currently in the “cancelled but maybe not?” Boeing development hell dance at the moment.
The Vietnam War era is even more of an eye-popper between then and now: (Wiki) List of Aircraft Losses of the Vietnam War
5 702 US fixed-wing aircraft lost(!!!), 8 540 when you include helicopter losses(!!!). 31 B-52’s alone were lost during the Vietnam war (compared with only 72 operational aircraft total today). Hell, 15 B-52s were shot down and 9 others heavily damaged in just one operation, Operation Linebacker II. Very probably more aircraft than that were lost as the US Air Force has never really admitted to the real total:
Industrial economy > finance parasite hellscape.
why do I think if this war drags on that it’s going to be another “Elon to the rescue” moment as he starts building jets, tanks, etc? I don’t think they’ll work worth a [bleep], but he’ll claim to “cut through the red tape”.
Except he has no such ability. And the established MIC will crush him like a bug.
Musk is rapidly running out of runway for his Ponzi scheme.
Only 72 operational B-52s today?!?? That’s crazy! (And I looked it up and you are correct about this.)
And only 45 B-1s and 19 B-2s. A total of 136 bombers?!?
We spend a trillion dollars a year and all we have to show for it are 30yo, 40yo, and 60yo bombers. jfc
Yea but we’re the bestest, baddest military ever in history according to Trump
As a US sailor returning from the Red Sea victory said, they were not used to people shooting back.
Iranian missile blitz takes down AWS data centers in Bahrain and Dubai — Amazon reportedly declares “hard down” status for multiple zones
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/iranian-missile-blitz-takes-down-aws-data-centers-in-bahrain-and-dubai-amazon-declares-hard-down-status-for-multiple-zones
Israel preparing for attacks on Iranian energy sites, awaits US green light, official says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-preparing-attacks-iranian-energy-sites-awaits-us-green-light-official-2026-04-04/
Israel destroys all security cameras facing UNIFIL’s headquarters in southern Lebanon
Former US air force master sergeant pleads guilty to defrauding military out of $37m
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/04/air-force-master-sergeant-pleads-guilty-defrauding-military
Halting $400m White House ballroom project is national security risk, Trump officials say
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/04/trump-white-house-ballroom-project
As war rages and prices surge, Trump posts video of himself every year since 1980
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-life-montage-truth-social-b2950970.html
He also issued an executive order on college sports yesterday. On a red state college sports message board I monitor there was robust discussion about whether the order would have any effect and zero sense of irony about this timing or any reference to the missing crew of the downed military aircraft
Now if the sergeant had scammed them for 37 billion, they’d have hushed it up out of embarrassment.
Windfall Tax on Big Oil Demanded as Trump’s Iran War Pads Profits of Fossil Fuel Giants
https://www.commondreams.org/news/iran-war-windfall-tax
Anti-war protests held across Israel despite wartime gathering limits
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-892038
This month, a pan-Eurasian container block train roared out of Xi’an — capital of Shaanxi province in central China — carrying 40-foot containers (known as FEUs in shipping jargon) full of solar panels to Aprin’s Dry Port on the outskirts of Tehran, 6,000 miles away.
It inaugurated the fully operational China–Iran rail corridor — a critical artery built to refound Eurasia’s overland trade routes, severed by Western sanctions, conflict, and maritime dependency.
By integrating rail with existing land and sea networks, Iran aims to reclaim its historic role as a regional transit hub — leveraging its geography to facilitate trade between China, Central Asia, and, eventually Europe via Turkey.
Earlier test runs — widely reported — proved the route’s digital infrastructure. But May 2025 marks the true launch — a six-nation rail corridor, treaty bound, over a decade in construction and now fully operational; the result of tens of billions of dollars invested, skilful diplomacy, purposeful plan…
https://fountainbridge.substack.com/p/china-iran-rail-corridor
See the map, a maritime workaround.
China-Iran Rail Corridor Defies West’s Maritime Rule
A 7,500-mile steel artery bypassing Suez, Malacca, and Hormuz, reshaping Eurasian trade and challenging Western maritime control.
NB: Xi’an is the modern name for the old Chinese capital of Chang An (now, just “Western Security” as opposed to “Long Security” or “Grand Security”), historically the eastern terminus of the Silk Road. The last time Chang An was the capital of China, at the height of the Tang Dynasty, China was practically a Middle Eastern power itself (among others, propping up the remnant of Sassanid Persia against the Muslim Conquest).
https://actvid.rs/movie/watch-warriors-of-heaven-and-earth-full-5721
Narges Soleimani, daughter of General Qasem Soleimani, has rejected US claims of arresting relatives of her father and that no family members live in the US and the individuals named don’t match any known relatives.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/180695#
Archbishop Broglio: War should always be ‘a last resort’
White House denies Trump is in the hospital as new health rumors explode
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/diseases-and-conditions/white-house-denies-trump-is-in-the-hospital-as-new-health-rumors-explode/ar-AA209keN
Bellevue hopefully…
Make it St Elizabeth’s, that was the CIA’s favorite back in the day.
Second round of Iranian farmers vs. US special forces to find that other F-15 pilot.
Just west of Shahr e Kord in a mountainous area. Not sure if that gives the pilot a slight advantage with slow Iranian mobilization in such a rural area.
Source : Middle East Spectator
I’m surprised there aren’t gov mobile manpad units in that area.
Not sure if that gives the pilot a slight advantage with slow Iranian mobilization in such a rural area.
Highly unlikely. As Yves pointed out Nima Alkhorshid from Dialogue Works is from that area and says the inhabitants are heavily armed and more than willing to capture a USN pilot. Plus Tehran is offering a sizeable reward.
It’s more likely hunting parties formed as soon as people heard or saw the report of the downing.
The temperature rises:
Insane footage coming out of Dehdasht, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, southwestern Iran.
Clashes are underway between U.S. forces and Iranians as search and rescue operations continue.
Not really sure what was knocked out of the sky in the video.
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/180725#
Not sure how to link to the post directly, but Middle East Spectator on Telegram is saying it’s likely a failed ballistic missile launch. https://t.me/s/Middle_East_Spectator
agree
Trump just gave Iran another ultimatum with this one being for 48 hours unless they open up the Strait of Hormuz. So Trump will launch a massive attack and then Iran will retaliate with an even bigger crippling attack. Only thing is that the markets will be open then and will be registering their own thoughts on the matter, especially with the price of oil.
He’s made himself impotent with the endless threats. He’ll probably strike before the 48 hours is up so Iran doesn’t care.
‘Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Alleged footage shows U.S. A-10 hit by Iranian air defenses.
The A-10 was literally built to survive anti-aircraft fire.
If Iran is bringing down the most survivable plane in the fleet, their air defenses aren’t as “decimated” as advertised.’
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2040180317659525307
China now tops US in global approval ratings: Gallup
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5816375-china-global-approval-surpasses-us-gallup/
Universities hit as US, Israel ramp up attacks on Iran’s infrastructure
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/4/universities-hit-as-us-israel-ramp-up-attacks-on-irans-infrastructure
“Your Sons More In Danger With Trump”: Iran To US Woman Claiming Pilot Son Missing
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/iran-war-news-your-sons-more-in-danger-with-trump-iran-to-us-woman-claiming-pilot-son-missing-11311277
“Your Sons More In Danger With Trump”
What about the daughters?
Kuwait says Iranian drone attack causes major damage at ministries complex
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/infinite-scroll/the-team-behind-a-pro-iran-lego-themed-viral-video-campaign
for links, manana, perhaps
From TYT, utube, ~6+minutes.
The War Just EXPANDED BIG TIME
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8K5R6uZJPY
The Houthis enter the war.
From Al Jazeera, utube, ~5+ minutes.
Israel prepares to strike Iran’s energy sites as Yemen, Iran and Hezbollah launch joint attacks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBsz8EyHGs8
Iran announces retaliatory targets in response to Israeli strike on petrochemical facilities yesterday:
Fars News Agency (Telegram, browser-translated from Farsi)
Iran’s hand on the trigger; Iran’s target bank updated after attack on Mahshahr
🔹Following reports of new US and Israeli infrastructure attacks on some Iranian industrial facilities in Mahshahr, the Iranian Armed Forces Target Bank was updated.
🔹On this basis, in addition to the oil, gas, and petrochemical industries of the Zionist regime and some Arab countries, a complete set of sensitive targets and key companies that are legitimate targets could be hit only in retaliation for the attack on the Jam petrochemical facilities.
🔹A list of these legitimate goals is as follows:
🔸The Israel Electric Corporation, which is known as the sole main supplier of the electricity grid for the entire occupied territories.
🔸Marafiq Company in Saudi Arabia, which is an integrated supplier of electricity, fresh water, and industrial steam to the two important industrial cities of Yanbu and Jubail.
🔸The United Arab Emirates-based Taka Company (TAQA), which operates a wide portfolio of power generation facilities across the country.
🔸Qatar Energy Utilities affiliates are responsible for providing power and water to the massive LNG and petrochemical complexes in the Ras Laffan region.
🔹Unlike previous attacks, Iran’s new scenario is based on striking a series of targets simultaneously in retaliation for Jam Petrochemical to demonstrate the ability to bypass multiple defense systems and deliver a coordinated shock to the critical infrastructure of several countries.
There is a report that 6 unidentified drones hit the Bazarkan oil field in the southern province of Maysan in Iraq. This oil field is operated by a consortium of local, Chinese and Turkish companies and happened after the Iranian military announced that Iraq will be exempted from shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz so is entirely not suspicious. My own guess is that if they were not US drones the they were Ukrainian drones who are operating in the region.
Four airports in Italy impose restrictions on refuelling
I’m puzzled. Trump posted the following 5 hours ago, but I’m not seeing it more than passingly mentioned anywhere.
Therefore, I’m assuming it’s an old video and not a new attack on Iranian leadership?
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116348358117196662
Many of Iran’s Military Leaders, who have led them poorly and unwisely, are terminated, along with much else, with this massive strike in Tehran! President DONALD J. TRUMP [BP: with 1 minute video]
U.S. Pilot Missing In Iran For Hours Reportedly Recovered In Daring Operation
https://thekenyatimes.com/geo-politics/pilot-missing-in-iran/
Lots of detail here, but the “Kenya Times”? Why would they be the first with this kind of information? I’m suspicious.
Looks like Jack Murphy broke this news 4 hours ago and then the Kenya Times is reporting on what he said. Middle East Spectator reported on it and then later said that it was false. The fact no real outlet is reporting on this would support it being false.
Except it looks like Al Jazeera is now also reporting the rescue, but they say the fighting is still going and the rescued pilot is not safe.
Per AJ:
We were told by the US government source that overnight in Iran, a missing crew member of the downed F-15E has been located, and there was a rescue effort, but there was a fierce firefight.
The latest information we have with them is that the crew member has not left Iranian territory, and because of the ongoing hostilities, there could be still danger to that person and to other people involved in that rescue effort.
So, this is an ongoing, active, rescue effort, but that airman is not basically out of Iranian territory, and I want to be clear when I say airman in the US military parlance, that doesn’t necessarily mean a male.
We don’t know the gender of this person.
The US rescue team still needs to successfully exfiltrate them out of the country and to safety, and we have no confirmation that that has happened.
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Another reading of this is that now more Americans are stuck in Iran
Telegram channels I monitor are saying there have been firefights between pararescue forces and Basij and small detachments of IRCG, with injuries/casualties likely on both sides. But no rescue. Ryan Grim cited Murphy as well, claiming that they recovered him, but it is completely unverified. Nobody other than Murphy is willing to go public with this claim. FWIW
Trump now confirmed they completed the rescue op
FROM PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
WE GOT HIM! My fellow Americans, over the past several hours, the United States Military pulled off one of the most daring Search and Rescue Operations in U.S. History, for one of our incredible Crew Member Officers, who also happens to be a highly respected Colonel, and who I am thrilled to let you know is now SAFE and SOUND! This brave Warrior was behind enemy lines in the treacherous mountains of Iran, being hunted down by our enemies, who were getting closer and closer by the hour, but was never truly alone because his Commander in Chief, Secretary of War, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and fellow Warfighters were monitoring his location 24 hours a day, and diligently planning for his rescue. At my direction, the U.S. Military sent dozens of aircraft, armed with the most lethal weapons in the World, to retrieve him. He sustained injuries, but he will be just fine. This miraculous Search and Rescue Operation comes in addition to a successful rescue of another brave Pilot, yesterday, which we did not confirm, because we did not want to jeopardize our second rescue operation. This is the first time in military memory that two U.S. Pilots have been rescued, separately, deep in Enemy Territory. WE WILL NEVER LEAVE AN AMERICAN WARFIGHTER BEHIND! The fact that we were able to pull off both of these operations, without a SINGLE American killed, or even wounded, just proves once again, that we have achieved overwhelming Air Dominance and Superiority over the Iranian skies. This is a moment that ALL Americans, Republican, Democrat, and everyone else, should be proud of and united around. We truly have the best, most professional, and lethal Military in the History of the World. GOD BLESS AMERICA, GOD BLESS OUR TROOPS, AND HAPPY EASTER TO ALL!
Sounds like the War shall continue. I wonder how many daring rescues of Trump’s manhood are possible in this war?
If the US has ‘achieved overwhelming Air Dominance and Superiority over the Iranian skies’, then how did those pilots end up on the ground in Iran anyway?
Hollywood must be bidding for the filming rights of this action already. Will Tom Cruise be involved?
I’m actually surprised that there’re rescue ops ‘boots on the ground’ types in Iran, to the point of being able to engage in firefights like this. I missed out on almost a week of events recently, was there some deployment that I missed?
Not a single American killed or even wounded… apart from the missing crew member who ‘sustained injuries’? Was the missing crew member not American?
Trump confirmed…the same Trump that says he is talking to officials in Iran.
Sounds like a Easter psyop to me.
Reminds me of Klendathu’s alleged “Brutal gravitional forces” in starship troopers, a film about an alleged civilisation attacking another it does not understand.
Meanwhile, Iranian propaganda videos could actually be nominated for an Oscar🔥🔥🔥
“Too much sugar can kill you”😂
https://t.me/RussianBaZa/58478
“all work and no play”
BREAKING: First footage of the destruction of two Black Hawk helicopters and one C130 military transport plane destroyed in rescue of F-15 Airman
https://x.com/ShaykhSulaiman/status/2040690199731036557
No idea in this PR environment …
I read that a military transport plane went down in the south of Isfahan and that must be it. I have a bad feeling that the crew went down with it as well-
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-says-five-killed-during-us-rescue-op-claims-several-us-aircraft-downed/
I would like to express my gratitude to Yves for her amazing reports on these historic events. Nowhere else can such incisive reporting be found and I hope she continues despite the occasional discouraging comment.
Yves, please look after yourself.
🇮🇷🔥 Abu Azrael, “The Angel of Death,” has arrived in Tehran.
Real name Ayoub Falih Hassan al-Rubaie, born 1978 in Iraq. Former university lecturer, one-time Taekwondo champion, and father of five. He first took up arms with the Mahdi Army against US forces during the 2003 invasion, then became one of the most feared commanders against ISIS in Syria and Iraq as part of the Popular Mobilization Forces.
He’s now in Tehran coordinating with the IRGC on plans for a potential US ground invasion. The man who fought the Americans in Iraq is back, and ready to do it again.
His catchphrase: “Illa tahin” — “Grind you to dust.”
I plan to have a T shirt (Black of course) screen printed with his catch phrase. And a couple of the emblems that appear in the clip. Hehe. Will get stares. Lots of Israelis in Thailand. And Persians Shiia and Sunni .
Style and substance! Yeah I know I cannot be a stoic all the time. Perhaps I am bi polar. It actually would explain alot. Ok. Time for another vodka
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/180868