This post launched before complete (come back at the customary 8:00 AM EDT) and will be a bit skeletal because I am packing for a truly horrible trip, transit-wise, thanks to Iran-war-induced flight changes. I will have a >12 hour layover each way, making a normal 21 to 23.5 hour trip into >34 hours each way.
The normal wise course would be to wait in the hope that things will become less bad. But with vessel transits out of the Gulf now on what looks like complete lockdown, severe and widespread jet fuel shortages are baked in. I have to deal with a mess at Citibank which will wind up in small claims court if they continue to be unable to ‘splain >35 debits to my corporate account; no one recognizes the codes associated with them.
Worse, my account manager is unable to escalate at all, let alone to the one place that could provide an answer, which is the cash management department. They clearly can generate a report with the backup to the transactions on my account. But instead the manager and I spent over 4 hours on the phone with no progress. And an attempt to reach the cash management department led to me being put on hold for 50 minutes over only one of the said >35 mystery debits.
So if ANYONE has a lead (that means an actual person at the manager or supervisor level, not a general # which I already tried) into Citi’s cash management department (I am obviously a small business customer) I will be enormously in your debt.
That also means for the next 12 days, Nat will take over the Iran War beat. This is a heavy lift! Please be nice to him! I am very grateful that he is willing to take this on in addition to his regular duties.
Please also thank Conor and Haig who will be filling in most of my regular slots.
That is false. The US did make an epic show of jerkdom by sending two destroyers into the Strait of Hormuz while the US-Iran negotiations were underway. US military-connected commentators like Larry Wilkerson have confirmed that they turned tail after being challenged by Iran, which per Wilkerson included buzzing them with drones.
However, as CENTCOM itself made clear, the US blockade was never never never of the Strait of Hormuz proper but just beyond. And given how suddenly this measure was implemented, it makes perfect sense that unarmed commercial carriers are not going to risk being boarded and having their crews put in custody.
Please note that as of the time of first publication of this post, I have attempted to verify claims of particular vessels running the blockade (quite a few Twitterati are on the case). There is not a single case of any specifically-named, as in tracked, ship exiting the Strait of Hormuz an getting past the blockade, as opposed to merely a bit past the Strait of Hormuz proper, save for the one grey area case mentioned in a Lloyds List story below.
There is a fresh report on Bloomberg of a non-sanctioned carrier entering the Persian Gulf to go to Iraq. Note on the inbound passage it did go into Iran territorial waters. But that would be after getting past the US cordon. Will the US allow it to exit or deem that to have been a violation?
What has happened repeatedly is that ships have been departing the Strait of Hormuz and then halting or turning back before they get to the Indian Ocean (or the other transit route, the Gulf of Aden).
Note that sites and tweets that say they show successful transit are missing the point and misleading their auciences. They merely show a transit of the Strait of Hormuz (followed by a turn-around) or merely ships approaching the Strait of Hormuz.
From Lloyds List in Signs of scramble from Iran-linked ships amid US blockade:
Iran-linked vessels that appeared poised to test the limits of the US blockade on Tuesday looked to be reconsidering as the US Navy forced a series of U-turns and ships stopped mid-voyage.
While the US has offered limited details regarding its intended enforcement strategy, US Central Command said in a social media post on Tuesday that six vessels have complied with directions from its forces to “to turn around to re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman”.
It was not immediately clear to which vessels Centcom was referring, but at least one shadow fleet* tanker, Rich Starry (IMO: 9773301), made a U-turn in the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday after transiting the Strait of Hormuz in the early hours of the day….
A draft of the notice to mariners circulated among maritime security sources indicated a “grace period” for “neutral” vessels if they depart Iranian ports before 1400 hrs UTC. However, no official confirmation has been given….
Another shadow fleet tanker that recently transited the Strait of Hormuz outbound and potentially toward the blockade, is the 35,775 dwt Elpis (IMO: 9212400).
The US-sanctioned vessel departed Bushehr, Iran on March 31, and transited the Strait of Hormuz after the US blockade entered into force. The vessel did not change its draught to indicate that it was laden when departing Bushehr, although that is not uncommon for shadow fleet tankers to not update their draught or update it late in their voyage.
Both Elpis, which is fraudulently flagged to Comoros, and the registered company that owns the vessel, Malaysian entity IMS, are already sanctioned by the US for previous Iran trades.
Having exited the strait on Monday, Elpis stopped around midnight near Kooh Mobarak, Iran, which is regularly used as an area for ship-to-ship transfers. It was not immediately clear whether the vessel was waiting to conduct an STS transfer or was stopped by US forces.
While the focus for US enforcement is likely to concentrate on tankers, at least one bulker — Christianna (IMO: 9596703) — headed through the strait from Iran after the blockade entered into force. The vessel, which is Greek-owned, left the Iranian port of Bandar Imam Khomeini before the end of the unconfirmed grace period…
The US military has said it would look to enforce its blockade — which covers any vessel that has come out of Iranian ports or Iranian coastal waters — in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, to the east of the strait.
Given the slapdash way that the Administration likes to do things, it is not clear to Lloyds and therefore not the commercial shipping community if the blockade is for vessels that depart from Iran ports or also includes ones, say from Iraq, that pay the Iran tolls or even pay not tolls but allow Iranian inspection of their carriers:
It was also not immediately clear whether the vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz through the Iran-dictated lanes that traverse the Islamic Republic’s territorial waters would also be considered in violation of the blockade, as Centcom said it would apply to vessels departing or entering “Iranian ports and coastal waters”.
Now to Bloomberg in Iraq-Bound Tanker Sails Into Gulf After Second Attempt at Hormuz:
- Iraq-bound supertanker Agios Fanourios I has sailed into the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz on its second attempt, making it the first crude carrier to head west since a US blockade on Iran’s ports came into force.
- Traffic through the chokepoint remains extremely limited, with some ships aborting their journeys and retracing their routes, including the US-sanctioned Rich Starry.
- Iran is considering a short-term pause on shipments, partly to avoid testing the blockade and to avoid scuppering potential peace talks, according to Bloomberg.
Note we discounted the earlier Bloomberg story, Iran Weighs Pausing Hormuz Shipping to Avoid Derailing Talks, due to lousy sourcing:
Iran is considering a short-term pause to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid testing a US blockade and scuppering a fresh round of peace talks, according to a person familiar with Tehran’s deliberations.
Mind you, it seems entirely reasonable for Iran to pause for it to confer with its key allies and also allow the ship masters to communicate with the ship owners and cargo buyers. But the spin here is of Iran fear of the US, which is questionable.
Keep in mind that an already bad baseline of disinformation appears to have gotten suddenly worse:
It feels like something shifted in the last 48 hours. Current events went from being nearly impossible to parse due to news slop and disinfo to completely impossible to parse due to news slop and disinfo
— Amerikanets 📉 (@ripplebrain) April 14, 2026
Do I think this blockade will hold? I doubt it. First, as even a Times of London radio broadcast mentioned early on, even if this strangulation were to succeed on a longer-term basis, it would not do damage to Iran all that quickly. By contrast, it will lead to a much faster compounding of the damage to the global economy.
In addition, Iran maintains it can get by without using its ports for export:
JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iran says it has alternative trade routes through Russia, Central Asia, and China, warns US blockade will backfire.
— BRICS News (@BRICSinfo) April 14, 2026
This may be a stretch, but perhaps in addition to land deliveries, Iran can work out a creative credit system with Russia whereby Iran gets crude to Russia and then Russia delivers a similar amount to China from other parts of Russia. Admittedly there would be a difference in grades but perhaps not unsolvably large.
Second, the Houthis could stop transit via Bab-el-Mandib, which would increase the damage to the commerce and consumers and particularly harm the Saudis.
Third, the US did not try to stop a Russian naval ship bringing oil to Cuba. The US does not seem to have the stomach for a direct confrontation with a major power that has the ships to contest a blockade.
The parties most harmed by this blockade are China, India, and Pakistan. If I were China, I would be making a stink to the US as well as seeing if I could get India or Pakistan (ideally both) to join in naval escorts. Any sort of escort operation, whether solo or joint, won’t happen overnight.
In a very good talk, Colonel Macgregor recaps the sort of naval forces the US assembled when it put up a blockade and expected it to be challenged by an opposing military. As you will see, they were vastly larger than the ships that the US has deployed (or could deploy):
Again, it is hard to prove a negative but Trump’s barker patter was that negotiations were to resume in a few days, but I see nothing of the kind on Twitter, where you’d expect to see not just a breaking news story but also a lot of debate.
The “deal on” hype machine is now in high gear
*TRUMP SAYS IRAN TALKS COULD HAPPEN OVER NEXT TWO DAYS: NYP
If a deal opens the Strait and everything starts moving, these markets are correctly priced.
If no deal … it could get “interesting.”
— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) April 14, 2026
The lead story on the BBC live feed for the Iran war has Trump repeating his barker patter:
The text:
Donald Trump says US-Iran talks could restart in Pakistan “in the next two days” – Iran is yet to comment….
As we’ve reported, President Trump – speaking about the possibility of more US-Iran talks – said “something could be happening” in Islamabad over “the next two days”.
That came hours after a diplomatic source told Iran’s state news agency IRNA there was “no information” about further talks.
IRNA said messages had been exchanged between Tehran and Pakistan – which has been acting as a mediator – but there was nothing confirmed.The source said Pakistan “remains committed to its mediation efforts” after previous US-Iran talks in Islamabad ended without agreement.
Iran has seemingly not commented on Trump’s latest comments. The two-week ceasefire was announced on 8 April – meaning it is due to expire next Wednesday on 22 April.
The US is attempting to ratchet up pressure by not renewing its 30-day waiver on trading with Iran:
The U.S. will let its 30-day Iranian oil waiver expire without renewal, two Trump administration officials told Reuters. The waiver, covering delivery, sale, and discharge of Iranian crude and petroleum products, ends at 12:01 AM ET on April 19, 2026. The move coincides with the… pic.twitter.com/yFw6OmuIUc
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) April 14, 2026
Erm, finance and emotion are not a happy mix:
Treasury is moving aggressively with Economic Fury, maintaining maximum pressure on Iran. Financial institutions should be on notice that the department is leveraging the full range of available tools and authorities and is prepared to deploy secondary sanctions against foreign…
— Treasury Department (@USTreasury) April 14, 2026
Iran does not seem cowed:
Iran is demanding compensation of up to nearly 300 billion dollars from Gulf states that housed American aircraft used to strike the country.
— WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 (@WarMonitor3) April 14, 2026
And to the economic front, markets are insanely elevated, even before getting to the terrible givens:
🚨The US stock market has never been this OVERVALUED:
The Buffett Indicator, which measures total corporate equities relative to GDP, rose to 232.6%, the highest level in history.
This is well above the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak of 162.6% and the 2021 market frenzy high of… pic.twitter.com/fNW913fVm2
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) April 14, 2026
We are witnessing a historic short squeeze right now.
The S&P 500 has now added nearly +$6 TRILLION in market cap since March 30th.
In just 5 trading days, hedge fund short exposure to US ETFs has gone from the highest since May 2025 to lower than 97% of cases over the last 5…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 14, 2026
More detail from indi.ca in The Persian Gulf Between Markets And Reality:
There is a statistical delta opening up in the Persian Gulf. A Bermuda Δ where oil presents and futures diverge, where public opinions and markets do not merge, where global prices do not converge, and where—as Gramsci said—“a great variety of morbid symptoms [emerge]”…
What, for example, is happening here? In an ongoing April Fool’s joke, if I want to buy a physical barrel of oil (10-30 days hence) it costs $132.74. Which is a lot, I actually have running bet with a friend on this price. However, Brent Futures (2+ months hence) are trading at $99.36. The futures market is betting with him, that prices will return to ‘normal’, whatever that is.
Here’s another way of looking at it, where you can see the delta rising.
What makes this delta so weird is that we know what oil supply in 2 months will look like, it’s oil production and shipments now. And these ships are stoppered out of Hormuz and on fire around the Gulf.
We also know what refined oil prices and supplies are now, in other parts of the world. As the FT reports, “Benchmark north-west European prices for jet fuel closed at $1,573 a tonne on Thursday, according to price reporting agency Argus Media, up from about $750 a tonne before the Iran war.” As the EU transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas said, “If the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next three weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU.”
This has been the reality in Asia for a while, but I mention Europe because White people don’t seem to believe in Asia as something connected to them. If you look at jet fuel prices across the world, you can see that prices are already up about 150% (from last year) in Asia and the Middle East and about 125% in Africa and Europe. Only North America is still living in last year (prices are actually 2.4% less) but oil is a liquid market and prices will slosh around until settling. As William Gibson said, the future is already here, it’s just unevenly distributed…..
Futures are theoretically supposed to price this future in, but they’re living in the past and inverting basic supply and demand. There is less supply in the future but somehow lower prices because… magic? Trump tweets and the herd mentality moves in tandem….
Futures are “boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past,” even the Great Gatsby couldn’t escape that. Like boats in a whirlpool, you can think you’re making great progress in some linear direction when in fact you’re going in circles and down the tube. Any oil future becomes the present at some point, and then prices have to converge. As some oil dude on Twitter says, “If Dated Brent remains at $120-130/bbl leading into the expiration of the front-month ICE Brent futures contract (currently around $100/bbl), the futures contract must converge toward the physical price. The convergence is not optional; it is mathematically enforced by the exchange’s settlement rules and market arbitrage.”
The jaws of this oily delta can be prised open by market and media manipulation for the carnival barker to put his head in and shout, but at some point the delta will snap shut. All the green lights will become red as reality intrudes.
Theres more fine material in this must-read post, such as:
Now the Standard & Poor stock market index (SPX) is nearing record highs while the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (UMCSENT) has hit its greatest depression. Consumer sentiment is at the lowest level ever measured, in 70 years of this account. You can see the delta here.
As we have been pointing out since the onset of this war, the supply shock extends well beyond energy to food (via fertilizers), computer chips (via helium), all sorts of industrial production (via sulphuric acid), plastics (which affects tons of logistics, particularly of food) and medications (via petrochemical inputs). So the market derangement is even more bizarre given that.
And now we have:
The recognition that AI compute shortage is bigger than oil supply shortage is here. At least in the US, which singularly matters for global financial markets more than anywhere else. @benitoz great call!
— Steve Hou (@stevehou) April 14, 2026
Note this just showed up on Twitted, but I saw nothing of the kind on BBC or Bloomberg when I checked at a bit after wthis tweet time:
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran agree "in principle" to extend ceasefire, AP reports.
— BRICS News (@BRICSinfo) April 15, 2026
Nor do I see anything like that on Aljazeera. However, this entry hit their wire in the last five minutes:
US to send ‘thousands of additional troops’ to Middle East
The US is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days, according to a report by The Washington Post, which cited unnamed US officials.
Given my conflicting demands, I have to stop now. Again, be nice to Nat during my absence!
___
1 I am being nicer than I should be in not naming the author, but one source that I had regarded as reliable had as its lead item the claim of successful transits of the Strait of Hormuz, which is narrowly accurate, with the links to supposed sources either showing a vessel retreat or worse, not being on point.
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Media lies allow trading surges in both directions.
But manipulation surely can’t happen ….
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Godspeed on your trip (the irritating layovers notwithstanding) and good luck with the bankers.
My “second” English made me unfamiliar with the meaning of “Godspeed”, with 12 hour layovers, it reminds me Polish proverb, roughly “Our Lord make take His time but he is just”.
“(I am obviously a small business customer)”. CityBank make take his time too, but we will learn if they are just “in the fullness of time”.
I just want to join everyone else in wishing you some good luck on your arduous trip. Like other people, I tremendously appreciate this site, which is the central news source I trust, and your summaries on the Iran war, also the first source for me. And good wishes to the excellent people who will continue your work here.
Keynes much repeated remark that ‘the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” jumps out of the bag again, doesn’t it?
Safe journeys and good luck with Citibank. I wish I didn’t think you will need both luck and artillery.
And for my part, I can say a sparse Yves post is worth more than the major outlets put together. Many thanks for all you do.
You are the best, Yves. Thank you for this tremendous coverage and have a safe trip!
Safe travels— and Thank You for all of the information over the years.
I mean that with All Sincerity!
Good luck Yves! Man what a sojourn … when I was working in Europe and banging back and forth from the US every few months, I finally began to despise air travel. But I can’t even imagine the torture of layovers > 24h. My sympathies and hopes that you’re able to resolve things swiftly. Best —
Safe trip Yves!
Many thanks to Nat for donning his war helmet (which reminds me of the MMA bunker photo).
And thank you to everyone else at NC. Still the greatest site on the internet.
We promise to be nice to Nat. Many thanks to you, Yves, for the daily Iran war updates. Props to Nat for being ready to give it a go. Thanks also to Conor and Haig. I hope your trip goes well.
Yves, safe travels. Reading what you are having to deal with sent my blood pressure up! I would have a real meltdown. Stay strong!
If there are to be further negotiations, one wonders if the vestigial State Department might actually be involved rather than just Trump’s golfing buddies. If not, what are they they for? To me, this is one of the biggest and least talked about offenses of the current administration. I’m not a Constitutional lawyer but it seems beyond the pale that the State department would take a back seat to an unelected, unappointed grifter with atrocious, compromised politics. You’d think Congress might pipe up about this.
lyman alpha blob: The problem with the State Department is that it has been on the decline for a number of years. The secretary of State has been reduced to a creature of the president, with little leeway and not much institutional support. Recall that the U S of A is one of the few countries (that I know of) that still gives away ambassadorships as part of the spoils of victory.
So one ends up with the egregious Rahm Emanuel as ambassador to Japan. The current ambassador to Italy is Tillman Fertitta, whose main preparation is owning Landry’s, Morton’s Steakhouse, and the Rainforest Cafe chain.
This is one reason why Hillary Clinton ended up as secretary of State, where she could pretend to be an Actor on the World Stage and fluff her résumé. The Obama White House limited her damage to destroying Libya (or was that self-damage?). And then, wasn’t she succeeded by pseudo-sage John Kerry?
The last gasp may have been Robert Byrd (!!) during the hearings for Condoleeza Rice in 2005: per Wiki, ‘Senator Robert Byrd voted against Rice’s appointment, indicating that she “has asserted that the President holds far more of the war power than the Constitution grants him.”‘
Also Charles Kushner as ambassador to France. Jared’s father and convicted criminal later pardoned by Trump. If you can believe it, conviction was for illegal campaign contributions to Dems. Also witness tampering. Seems Chuckle’s brother-in-law testified against him. To try and stop him, Chucky hired a prostitute to sleep with said in-law and secretly record the whole thing.
The rot of the State Department is one of the most visible signs of our steady de-evolution. It has always been politicized to a degree – recall the purge of the commie lovers after WWII – and since that war it has provided cover for the CIA and various destabilizing actors and actions. But throughout the Cold War it retained the ability to conduct actual diplomacy, and housed many actual diplomats capable of understanding foreign affairs in some very “complex” regions of the world. This diplomatic function has been steadily removed since the end of the Cold War and replaced by one of pure propaganda, utilized to bamboozle the US public with lies here at home and carry out hybrid warfare abroad. I personally refer to State as the “Ministry of Propaganda” these days. This is not meant as an insult, but as an accurate description of what it actually does now. We might as well change the name like we did in changing the Department of Defense to the Department of War. Everyone knows that we are “agreement incapable.” We have sidelined all of our actual diplomats and are no longer capable of real “diplomacy.”
I’ve read a description that before 1941 State Department was a place where the Yale educated second and third sons of the wealthy New England families were dumped but around 1941-42 the Council of Foreign Relations (read: the Wall Street) took over the place as businesses realized that to avoid a repeat of the Great Depression the trade policy would be synonymous with the foreign policy.
A wag in my evil multinational joked recently that we might change the name of our government relations department (lobbyists) to “government bribery” because that’s legal now. And with the US regime stopping DOJ FCPA enforcement, that was an accurate observation.
Government Purchasing provides plausible deniability.
In the Biddin’ Regime our so-called secretary of state pledged loyalty to Netanyahu and Israel first. So we will be coming up on a decade since we had a head diplomat
Whether it’s the state department or not, if you put yourself in a Irans shoes, who in the US realistically put up that they would actually trust?
Good point, along with others above. I probably should have said in theory this is a job for the State Dept. In practice in recent decades they are all a bunch of clowns. And not the funny haha kind – more like Chucky or Pennywise who’d prefer to stab you in the back or rip your throat out.
Thanks for this rather depressing news digest. We are now in some kind of phony war, which, without a doubt, will lead to further bloodshed and battles. The inability of the U.S. elites to negotiate is on full display.
A very strange data point popped into my eye:
Iraq-bound supertanker Agios Fanourios I has sailed into the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz on its second attempt, making it the first crude carrier to head west since a US blockade on Iran’s ports came into force.
Agios Fanourios, Saint Phanourios the Newly Revealed, is a rather strange saint, known only through icons. Some say only through a single wonder-working icon. I learned about Fanourios as the patron of bakers, because one makes a special cake on his feast day. Fanourios is also the patron of lost things. In the Latin church, the other patron of lost things is Saint Anthony of Padua. (Famous, too, for a sermon to fishes.)
I am not sure what to make of Saint Phanourios the Newly Revealed turning up in the Persian Gulf, but we are living in an era in which Trump thinks that he can contend via social media with the Popester. In short, and being somewhat superstitions, I’ll keep my eye on this splinter of divinity that is crossing the waters against the normal flow.
It’s getting rather mythical. I saw the Elpis mentioned above, which is Greek for Hope. Unclear whether it’s flown from the US-imposed box or not. Perhaps whether it eventually escaping is a boon for humanity or not depends on one’s interpretation the Pandora story.
Shipping disasters have defined the postmodern era.
1967 Israel tried to sink the Liberty.
1987 The Herald of Free Enterprise capsized in the English Channel.
2007 The Risky Business sank in the Sea of Alaska.
Elpis appears to be a year ahead of schedule.
So far about 6 weeks and half a week more. The kinetic side has now gone down, though not totally, which is the best we can obtain and suggest this conflict and the Hormuz closure will encyst for long and make a lot of damage everywhere. The main battle will probably be in the blaming game in the next months.
I think the only reason there is a cease-fire is the United States is legitimately out of ammo. I think if we had the munitions and the capability, the bombing runs would’ve continued as Trump thought they were going well, and we were only one or two more days away from success hitting.
I think the strikes will resume as soon as more ammo can get in place.
I think that Iran is fine with the strait being closed and them not getting bombed. So we’ll sit in this weird interregnum period for sometime.
When I was a child and a situation was hopeless, my mother’s go-to was St Jude. Perhaps the nuns in Halifax had different traditions.
No. 1 has a nice discussion on why the blockade of the blockade and concludes that there is a calculation based on estimated Iranian above-ground storage that, in 13 days, damage begins to Iranian oil fields if there are no oil exports. And that this, combined with the loss of tolls, crashes the real and leads to economic unraveling, and voila, the US wins. However, No1 points out, this is the scenario Iran has been preparing for for 50 years. I can imagine – underground storage.
He then points out that the blockade of the blockade (if the underwear gnome scheme fails) only benefits Nethanyahoo. It certainly fits the neocon policy of doubling down on a policy instead of admitting it failed and changing the policy.
https://no01.substack.com/p/blockading-the-blockade
Larry Johnson also highlights this, and notes the source, Miad Maleki, has a solid record of being wrong, but is being pushed by White House neocons.
NO1 is the Substaker I did not name but misrepresented the state of play of the blockade. His summary depicted it as having been broken when his links did not prove it or worse proved the reverse. I am now going to have to check everything he says.
Admittedly underground storage is an interesting idea and makes sense for a ton of reasons.
I skipped over those parts as there is too much info slop and hopium flying around – in a few days the fog will start lifting, though the clear lack of planning is not a great start.
But to imagine that Iran has not gamed this and developed solutions is contrary to everything that has happened over the last 6 weeks!
And underground solutions are not visible to satellite
I wonder if the Iranians have prepared to use their salt domes as underground storage spots as America does with its salt domes along the Gulf Coast? Significant salt domes exist under the Zagros mountains of Iran, which are conveniently sited next to the Persian Gulf and their main oil fields. I know it sounds counter-intuitive, but using minimal pumping, so as to preserve the extant oil fields supply capacity, into said salt domes might be a feasible way of preserving Irans oil production potential.
Iranian salt domes: https://www.geologyin.com/2023/01/salt-domes-and-salt-glaciers-of-zagros.html
I’m sorry to confirm what you’re seeing: it’s all AI generated and the quality of even that has been deteriorating.
On April 2, No.1 included the following item:
And so it wasn’t proofread by a hoomin either.
I commented on that posting and got what appeared to be an AI reply:
It’s interesting (sort of) because No.1 started out strong, but as the noise-to-signal has steadily increased, so too have the hallucinations — with no increase in content review before posting.
Reading No 1 summaries also very strongly tickles my AI spidy senses, down to the confidence indicator: high, medium, low. For the most part, as someone who uses AI coding tools and has come to respect their prowess, I am not as categorically opposed to AI generated content as the editorial line of this site, but one must certainly appreciate the potential for GIGO (garbage in, garbage out), which is what one should expect from what amounts to a Twitter/X feed aggregator/summarizer bot, as No1 appears to be.
Interesting, only Iran has issues with capped wells degenerating!
Note Iran fields are near enough to share geology with Iraq and Qatar! While KSA, et al., storage is limited as well.
US planners!
Yes. That was my immediate reaction as well. We were hearing about the problems of storage capacity and degeneration of capped wells for the Gulf states from the beginning of this war. Not surprising that this issue would now be ignored by Trump. But I haven’t seen it discussed in mainstream media coverage of the “blockade of the blockade” either. And as Yves discusses in detail, the markets seem oblivious as well. Just another day in an episode of the Twilight Zone I guess.
It used to be that whenever all the Powers that Be were denying or ignoring something I thought was obvious, I’d check myself and think that I had to be missing something. But after finding out eventually that my skepticism was correct, over and over again, for over half a century now, my default position is to go with my instincts. Maybe I’ll be proven wrong THIS time and I really am missing something. But I doubt it.
Wasn’t that also the main kerfuffle about Venezuela? Aside from the grade issues, their fields and wells are unused for so long it would take too much time and money to get back up to par that no US firm wanted a piece.
Now there are some US energy companies making more money.
Iirc, Iran exported very little oil during the ‘maximum pressure’ campaign during Trump I, and it didn’t seem to ha affected their extraction capacity in the long run. Differently from GCC countries, which have relatively low population numbers, Iran has a large internal market (~90 mil) that can absorb relatively large amounts of petrochemical products. It would seem to me that Iran could reduce extraction rates of its wells by 25-50% or even more while still extracting some out to prevent fouling or degradation of the wells, and said extracted oil being absorbed by the internal market.
What makes the false reporting of blockade busters more annoying and inexplicable is that anyone could go on a vessel tracking website and see that Elpis was clearly lying at anchor (pointing back towards Iran) just beyond the straits. Some commentators have been so wrong so often I no longer bother with them. I won’t name any names.
I keep getting the impression that a lot of commentators have not grasped that the USN cannot do a close blockade of the Strait. They seem think this is the same as a Hornblower naval blockade where the blockading ships are three nautical miles off-shore As far as I can see, any USN ship is well-advised to lay off 1,000km from the coast of Iran.
I may be wrong but I don’t think USN helicopters are going to want to be within 200km of the coast. If noting else Iran is reported to have Russian S-400 missiles some of which are reported to have 400km ranges.
If you look at a map, they do seem to be in that range but not in the Strait but in the Arabian Sea, in international waters.
But (and I REALLY DO NOT HAVE TIME NOW), a fresh report from Alon Mizrahi:
https://alonmizrahi.substack.com/p/day-48-iran-flips-the-ultimatum-game?
Three days ago, I watched most of a YouTube Video BREAKING: Iran’s Khorramshahr-4 Obliterated Ben Gurion — Israel In Full Panic Mode | Scott Ritter. Something about the mannerisms and presentation by “Ritter” seemed odd, and I suspected it was created using AI using Ritter’s voice and face.
Trying to verify that Ben Gurion Airport had been destroyed, I came across another video in which the wording and phrasing was almost identical, but using a face and voice than Ritter’s. And here’s yet another, using the likeness of Lawrence Wilkerson.
JUST IN: Khorramshahr-4 Strikes BEN GURION — Israel Is Paralyzed Right Now | Lawrence Wilkerson
I read a couple weeks ago that John Mearsheimer had gone through the trouble – and it was a lot of trouble – to get AI counterfeits of Mearsheimer taken down. So, there’s evidently quite a disinformation effort underway.
These are two suspect YouTube channels:
Lawrence Wilkerson Updates
Scott Ritter Updates
There was another video of Ritter I watched last night explaining how the Iranians scared off DDG-69 USS Milius and the stupendous strategic implications, I suspect was also a fake.
“Stay with me”
Larry Wilkerson, in a fresh talk on Nima, which I did not include, says there are fake videos of him near the start of his talk:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqKhinZt3wM
I have not seen this one but the ones I have (of Marandi and Yanis Varoufaks) were obvious fakes to me. Voices wrong, both intonation patterns and use of their vocal range. I am surprised others have more difficulty. But I was a choral singer with very accurate pitch…
Yanis Varoufakis says he was taken in by a deepfake video of himself until he realiised, a couple of minutes in, that he had never worn that particular shirt in that location.
It was obvious to me. Like “Recoil in less than 30 seconds” obvious.
Recall I have done a fair bit of TV. Your voice sounds different externally than it does in your head, with all the resonant acton in your skull and nasal cavity. He would not have been used to hearing his voice recorded unless he was a friggin’ narcissist who liked looking at his clips on a very regular basis. Admittedly, professional performers like newscasters or actors would presumably wind up seeing a lot of their presentations.
Similarly, people see themselves nearly entirely in repose, in mirrors, and not in animation speaking. That is a big reason why so many women wind up with awful plastic surgery. What looks good in the mirror often looks bizarre once you start talking
True, most of us aren’t familiar with how we sound to others, but AIs are likely to get more true to life in that respect, and able to fool more listeners. And Yanis said that for most of the video, the deepfake was saying the kind of things he might well have said, using words he might well have used. Where will we be in two or three years’ time?
As for now the videos are so bad you don´t even have to be a choral singer.
Sometimes I am surprised how gullible online commentators are in these matters while obsessed over details when debunking “empire” or identifying a major conspiracy at every corner of the net.
These fakes are really exploding all over Youtube and elsewhere. Sometimes, as in Larry Wilkerson’s case, the text corresponds to the person’s actual beliefs and reflects what he might actually say. But that is not always the case, and I’m certain this is another mechanism to make it impossible for regular people to know anything for sure about anything.
Where’s the infamous YT police? They seem quick to take down admitted (and obvious) fake videos like the Iranian Lego guys.
Good luck on your endeavors, Yves and thank you so much for this site!
Funny, or not, that the same elites complaining about “fake news” seem to have no problem unleashing this “AI” bullshit generator on the entire planet.
I suspect someone has turned an “AI” on the already “AI”-generated Iran lego videos. The first bunch were quite good and I did see the company who created them vouch for them somewhere. My understanding is that youtube has tried to take them down, only to see new channels created.
In the last few days however, the ones I’m seeing are complete crap – gibberish text on background posters or signs, and the words of the songs make little sense.
On a positive note, we’ve seen people throwing molotov cocktails and firing shots at Sam Altman’s house so at least the disgruntled have started focusing their ire properly.
The creative group is Explosive Media (aka akhbarenfejari).
I think they are getting run out of town from not just YouTube, I got this information from their Telegram channel. I’ve started using Telegram to scan many different channels during this conflict.
They provided this link https://lnk.bio/ExplosiveMediaa on their channel I think to help locate them and their videos.
Thank you for the link!
I too watched a “Scott Ritter Updates” video. The simulacrum was highly convincing, except there was an almost complete lack of hesitation, stumbling, ums and errs.
Since what he was saying was significant I looked for corroboration and found an “Asian Guy” video, posted several hours prior, which had an almost identical script. “Asian Guy” does not even pretend not to be AI.
Thanks to Yves and the NC community for the great analysis and comments during this Iran War. The moderators have been incredible in preventing irrelevant comments. I read pretty much all of Yves’s daily summaries and numerous comments, but I seldom commented. Here is my long-ish comment about separating fact from fiction, especially with regard to AI.
Do I have an “advantage” with my rare sensory problems and great reluctance to watch any videos? The audio on Youtube also hurts my ears if the production quality is “professional.” A zoom video of Nima and Larry Johnson talking about the Iran war will almost certainly not cause my fatigue most likely because it is not edited, but a video with sound effects and graphics may cause me severe fatigue or pain. I won’t delve into the details of the neuropathological reasons for seemingly innocuous stimuli causing me pain.
On the 04-12 Iran war post, readers boshko and JonnyJames discuss the deep faked Scott Ritter video. I quickly noticed the fake Ritter voice because I have heard his real voice numerous times, and I also noticed his recent cough, which did not appear in the AI video. About two or three weeks ago, NC readers (I recall at least Ben Panga) opined that a certain anonymous Asian man posting Youtube videos about current events and military affairs is likely AI. Anonymous Asian man has reported some very bold and unsourced things about the Iran war, yet his content is essentially fiction, particularly insidious in light of using actual people and existing military material. I concluded anonymous Asian man is untrustworthy AI because of his content, not because of his voice, mannerisms, or AI generated images.
Let me pose some questions as I barely understand AI. When it comes to unauthentic likenesses generated by AI, I think I could be easily deceived. For example, on the 04-13 Iran war post, I first saw Tom Switzer, John Mearsheimer and Joshua Landis. I am unfamiliar with Switzer and Landis, and if somebody had faked their likeness in an AI video, I probably would not have noticed. Besides familiarity with an actual person, how do I detect fraudulent AI likenesses? What software and hardware is used to create an AI video? Do AI creators have to start with a photo or pre-existing video of a person? Which inputs are real and which inputs can be non-existent? If an organization with plenty of resources like Mossad wanted to create a propaganda video of Ritter uncharacteristically praising the American and Israeli alliance, what is the process of video creation? Do we need an actor that resembles Ritter’s appearance and voice as a starting point? Do we take an existing video of Ritter and direct some magical software to render some graphics with magical GPUs of Ritter saying things he didn’t actually say? Doesn’t creating an artificial rendering of Ritter use massive amounts of energy and resources? I imagine one needs a massive bank of GPUs to achieve realism. Do normal people have access to this kind of hardware and the requisite software to create a facsimile of an individual, including his voice and mannerisms?
In the 04-13 post, NC reader ThirtyOne linked to a Patricia Marins tweet that highlighted an AI generated video of Trump, Netanyahu, and Hegseth singing a song about current events in the style of Bob Marley. Those singers and dancers in that music video were not actual people singing, dancing, and playing music instruments? That video was as quite funny and impressive. It fooled me. I would have thought they hired real actors and actresses to do that. How did they sing and play music so well? My ears are quite sharp, and those musical instruments sounded pretty real to me. Did Wukchumni coincidentally on the same day write a parody of the Bob Marley song Redemption Song?
I’d like to think that my version of Redemption Song prompted ThirtyOne’s video, in a harder they come, the harder they fall… vein.
I ran into that video while looking up the whereabouts of the CVN77 group.
So, just coincidence.
As to the origin of that video, my barely informed take is higher quality/longer form is really power intensive, so your average “user” probably couldn’t afford to make a video like that.
How is it done? You feed the right kind of AI as much footage of your target as you can so it can construct a facsimile. Then you tell it–literally give it instructions in English–what you want it to do and say. Some skill is required and there will be a fair bit of trial and error to get something acceptable.
It does require prodigious amounts of power and hardware but that can be rented online.
They can be hard to spot but common tells are garbled text, other visual glitches, unnaturally fluent speaking.
“Asian Guy” often has bad lip sync. I assume he is an off-the-shelf template since he has become so ubiquitous.
One interesting thing about jet fuel being gone first is that it is something that will materially affect the ruling class, at least that part which can’t afford private jet. How long can you lecture proles about the virtues of sacrificing $6 for gallon for the greater good, when your wife is yelling at you about that cancelled summer vacation in Caribbean and you can’t escape on some “business” trip to conference in Paris either?
Got a family reunion in Prague coming up in 5 weeks that looks iffy, but i’m content to hurry up and wait and see what happens.
Already cancelled our 2 week trip to Italy that was for the last week of August. Too iffy on too many levels.
The last time oil prices spiked my employer commented that Jet-A fuel in our fuel farm for corporate jets was $12 a gallon. 6000 gallons to fill a Bombardier Global.
Could some large investors have an assumption that in the coming months, oil demand will weaken so much that it will lower the price of oil futures?
For example, if the financial sector soon experiences such a large downward correction that it would also cause a deep depression in the real economy, and then oil consumption and prices would fall significantly.
This is pure speculation on my part. But if large investors have such expectations regarding oil, you would think that it would also be reflected in some other financial sectors, from which someone following the matter could draw conclusions. (I myself am not capable of that.)
Yes, I think they are looking at ‘demand destruction’ working to lower consumption. Which would be swell, except that would lead to commerce and industry downshifting, killing even more jobs.
https://xcancel.com/Rory_Johnston Is the Oil and a list I learned about from the comments here at NC. I’ve been following him since the start of the war, trying to understand the exact question that you are posing. The highest price for a barrel of oil adjusted for inflation is roughly $220 during the 2008 crash. It is Rory’s belief, that if the strait remains closed We will easily exceed that.
Here is some of the logic and the reasons behind his statements as best as I can understand them.
1. Turn the peak lockdowns of Covid, global demand for oil dropped roughly 20,000,000 barrels a day. We will need to have a similar level of demand destruction accomplished, only through the pricing mechanism of oil.
2, the oil market had a bunch of excess supply going into this crisis, and there was also a bunch of oil on the water due to Russian and Iranian and sanctions. This doesn’t change any facts on the ground, but it does give a larger buffer than the market or novices would expect.
3. The strait being closed is fundamentally a problem of time. Each barrel lost is a barrel that you cannot replace. It also takes 4 to 6 months based on experts for the Wells to get back and running to their original capacity before the war six weeks into this thing we are already short the 1.2 billion barrels that are available in the IEA strategic petroleum reserve that is available globally if you factor in The production that will be lost when the wells get turned back on, but can’t function at 100% output. He estimates that at about 3 to 4 months of the straight being close we will hit depression level demand destruction in in order for the supply to equal the demand.
4. There has never been a supply disruption like this. The oil markets had to run at the beginning of the Russian war at the fear that 3 million barrels per day would be taken off-line but that didn’t materialize. Due to every other oil crisis of a similar vein resolving itself there is a complacency.
Now switched to some of my thoughts. I think everyone keeps discounting that this is existential for Iran. The current leader lost his father, mother, wife, and son in the strikes that started the war Israel as per claim, they will assassinate him the first chance they can get. The diplomat‘s returning from Islamabad had to be accompanied by nine fighter jets on a different plane that they came in for fear of being assassinated. The city of Tehran was as dark as night for two days with oil fires from Israeli strikes on 30 refineries potentially giving an entire city of 15 million people Gulf War syndrome.
Iran has been made relatively self-sufficient by being cut off from the global economy by sanctions for the last 50 years. Well, they still trade with other countries they are uniquely positions to whether a storm in the global economy when compared with the US or the EU. They made 1 million cars last year under the sanctions.
I think they’re very intelligence and that they’re trying to drive wedges between the different coalitions the US and Israel have in this war that includes with the GCC, with the EU and with each other.
However, it was eight days ago that there was a realistic threat that the entire country could be struck with nuclear weapons. So I think they are correctly being differential, as well as trying to maintain their own coalitions where it doesn’t cost them anything material. As long as the straight is closed, their main weapon is firing, and it doesn’t hurt to say that they’re open to talks or willing to negotiate as it makes them look reasonable.
I think they’re being very reasonable for a country that was hit with an unprovoked attack. I think it’s quite obvious based on what happened after 911 that if the equivalent happened to the United States they would not be as gracious as the Iranians have proved to be.
I also think Iran understands, that if the straight remains closed, it could easily maintains of millions of deaths and the Third World as a consequence. I believe that showing you were willing to negotiate this stage will age well if it comes to that and people look back at the situation and don’t find statements where you were being belligerent and stubborn.
Now that the US has taken over responsibility for the straight being closed, not only to oil but to fertilizer and other key commodities that takes some of the guilt and burden off of Iran.
We are at the stage of the sinking of the Titanic, where the iceberg has been hit and water is flowing in under the surface. Once it crosses a threshold every oil and less degrees the ship is going down. Not every oil analyst agrees, where that exact point is. But I haven’t found one yet. The disagrees that there is the existence of that point and the strait Hormuz being shut will cause that point to arrive
Another good follow IMO is Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s direct investment. His views have been similar to Rory’s.
Just like when a hurricane hits, and there’s panic buying in the stores have all the toilet paper and water purchased my people hoarding supplies. There is an analogous thing that happens with corporations on key raw materials.
So ironically, when supply gets to its lowest, and there’s actual physical shortages, the company start experiencing the demand for a while from the corporate side will surge to an ex for a bit while everyone panic bites, trying to secure a longer lead time of critical inputs to their system.
This will cause prices to spike.
However, the altruism of the cure for high oil prices is high oil prices is absolutely true and that that spiked Price cannot maintain itself as it will induce demand destruction that reduces the price of oil, but hurts the economy and GDP overall
I saw a dude from Goldman this morning and he gave a pretty balanced view. One point was that he’s seeing both higher prices and some demand destruction in Asia and neither is good news. And the impacts vary by country given different stockpile levels.
Not to be a conspiracy theorist, but is someone trying to fuck you over? You are definitely a heretic and “follow the money.”
No. There is an unacknowledged increase in internal fraud. A friend at Chase was harmed by action of an actual or recent insider, you had to know the bank’s controls to have pulled off this scam.
She did at least get her money back after about 10 days but they had to close her account and open a new one.
Someone during the process casually mentioned that this was happening all over big banks due to outsourcing but they still regarded it as cheaper to make customers whole than ride herd on the process.
A big reason I am having trouble getting anywhere is that Citi considers fraud only to be external fraud. When I mention fraud, they literally “there was no fraud alert, so there was no fraud.”
Does this mean I should just make claims when I get a “fraud” alert???
Convinced they are sent at certain intervals to give the appearance of care and monitoring. My “fraud” alerts have all been for usual amounts previosly spent at local stores.
I don’t understand this comment at all.
When I worked at WAMU 25 years ago, a manager took me aside at one point and mentioned that just about all the emails we’d receive when someone left the company were because that person had been caught stealing or committing fraud. I only worked there a little over a year and these were just for our branch (it was corporate headquarters, but still just one location). There were quite a few of them if I recall correctly.
Yeah, my firm maintained a hand in critical control processes to mitigate fraud risk but I’m 5 years removed and the pressure to offshore the remnants was a powerful force.
Even working internally on behalf of a large investment management client it was getting difficult troubleshooting issues so I feel for you. Going to require persistence.
Are there credit unions in Indonesia?
I realize that system may not be very conducive to frequent international travelers/residents, but I avoid banksters like the plague.
I am not in Indonesia.
Re: outsourcing and fraud
Outsourcing was the cause of a nightmare I had with Bank of Montreal (BMO). Last year, they froze my account due to the now prevalent security paranoia (are they dealing with internal fraud?), but after I persuaded them that I am indeed still myself, they were unable to unfreeze the account for six weeks.
Through over a dozen phone calls and many hours spent waiting on hold, I discovered that actually BMO no longer manages any of their customer accounts. Everything is outsourced to another company called FISERV, which claims to have “global” operations (i.e., probably everything is handled somewhere in the Philippines), and of course this is another vector for internal fraud.
The BMO service reps were all completely powerless to do anything except forward requests to FISERV, and despite feeling enraged at their incompetence, I started to really pity these people. None of them seemed to have any clue what was going on, starting with the service rep who froze the account in the first place (she was sufficiently clueless as to express bewilderment at “AL, AK, AZ, AR, …” in their internal BMO service app, not connecting the dots that these stand for “Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, … etc.”)
Separately, my employer used BMO to handle payroll processing, and there were repeated problems in which paychecks were simply lost.
All of this prompted the obvious question: if a bank is reorganized such that all of their services are outsourced, is it still a bank?
Technically, it is still a bank, but now for the fraudsters. Maybe a ‘Bank of Available Assets.’
Back office work has long been outsourced or moved to cheaper locations in the US. Offshoring can work. It’s not the offshoring that is the problem, in my opinion. It’s the endless drive to maintain net earnings growth by continually driving down costs, even if quality suffers.
It’s another version of the “I’ll be gone, you’ll be gone” mentality. Make bonuses now, let others deal with any problems later. And the damage would be very hard to reverse because those skills increasingly don’t exit in the US anymore.
Yeah, that is most likely closer to what’s happening. It could be done right, but it wasn’t and they done care.
In 2024, it seems that BMO had nearly $1Bn in credit losses from high-risk commercial real estate and manufacturing loans in the U.S. Did they cut customer services to cover their losses?
They acquired Bank of the West, and all of those customers (including me) where then stuck with BMO’s crap services.
This is presumably the story the ‘BRICS News’ tweet is referring to
The story about Israel negotiating with “Lebanese govt” begs the question: wtf is the “Lebanese govt”? Lebanon has a fundamentally splintered and dysfunctional govt, split along factional lines. It sounds like Israel is “negotiating” with the Lebanese PM, but the PM is, constitutionally, always a Sunni and, in recent years, has generally been the agents of the Gulfies in Lebanon. So, it’s another Abraham Accords, on a smaller and absurd scale: almost as if Israel is negotiating with UAE and not Iran to end its current conflict with Iran. But then, all sorts of phantom and fraudulent “negotiations” are going on nowadays, so who knows?
The Lebanese government is the one installed at the end of 2024 after Hezbollah got beaten up, and after it subsequently lifted its objections to forming a government and electing a President. As you say, the Prime Minister is always a Sunni, but in recent years the Gulf States have been a lot less active than they used to be, and conceded the primary external interest in the country to Iran. This appears to have changed a bit in the last eighteen months, with more diplomatic engagement, but even then the main focus of the Saudis, for example, has been Gaza.
The government has been quite clear about its position: it does not want the future of Lebanon decided through a deal between Iran and Israel. Hezbollah, for obvious reasons, does, because Trump’s stupidity has suddenly made them a lot more powerful. They continue to lose public support, having now dragged Lebanon into two pointless wars since 2023, but they remain the most powerful military force in the country. If the Army were to split, or if there were widespread sectarian violence, Hezbollah would come out on top, which would suit Iran very well. The government has a very weak hand, but it is essentially trying to say to Israel: this is not our war, it’s between you and Hezbollah. Leave us alone, and we will make the major political concession of speaking to you directly.
Well, the fight is between at least the Lebanese Shia (beteeen 1/3 and 1/2 of Lebanese population) and Israel, and taking place over Southern half of Lebanon, including the capital, inhabited by all Lebanese factions. Israel never stopped bombing southern Lebanon nor pulled out entirely from the country. So I don’t think this was ever not a fight between the country of Lebanon and Israel. Maybe it was not a fight between Lebanese Sunni and their territories in the North and Israel, but if so, it’d be none of their business what the people in Southern Lebanon decide to do. Maybe they are less agents of the Gulf than they were before, but it still seems like Israel is trying to make fraudulent peace by negotiating with those who are not their enemies, like they were with the Gulfies. Since the Sunnis, even if they control PM’s office, have no business speaking for the Shia, or Christians for that matter, I don’t think this “Lebanese government” business carries much water, unless this “government” includes both the president (ie the Christian faction) and the speaker of the parliament (the Shia representative) and operates on consensus among all three at least.
No, it’s wrong to equate Hezbollah with the Shia population. Not all Shia have voted for Hezbollah (see Amal) and even those who do have started to peel away. Hezbollah retains its popularity by virtue of the social services it supplies to the Shia community, much more than from its military role. Most Shia are secular and patriotic: around 30-40% of the Army are Shia. The Lebanese government operates by consensus because it can’t operate otherwise. Aoun, the President, and now even Berry the (Amal) Speaker of Parliament are on the same page. The fact that the Prime Minister is automatically a Sunni doesn’t mean that he only represents the Sunni population, which itself is divided on many issues.
I think that part of the problem is that however problematic Hezbollah’s actions may be for the broader Lebanese society or for Hezbollah itself.
For those who support Hezbollah the government of Lebanon is an even less desirable alternative.
I guess here’s what I don’t get: why should any patriotic Lebanese be any interested in cutting a deal with Israel, having seen, for decades, complete perfidy and increasingly naked desire for conquest and plunder? The excess warlikeness of Hizb’ullah does engender suspicion, this I’d seen in the past, too, but nowhere as much as the suspicion and wariness towards the Israelis, especially when the latter are acting especially militantly (like now). At least a litle before the present (I don’t know what’s going on now, after all the fighting and bombings lately), we are getting ambivalent (but definitely hostile to or at least skeptical of Israel) words from Aoun, which I think corresponds to what I think is the most common public sentiments in Lebanon. The kind of “peace talks” with Israel headed by the PM seems downright treacherous along a sectarian line to me, almost SLA like.
You’re saying that Hezbollah, not Israel, is the party that “dragged” Lebanon into “two pointless wars since 2023”? I’m not understanding how you can say that Hezbollah is the active agent here. You’re saying that Lebanon is and has been desiring to cede to Israel all of the land Israel might want to claim?
I don’t think you understand. Buy a ticket to Beirut, if you still can, and go and ask a few people there.
In 2023, Hezbollah launched attacks against Israel under circumstances which remain obscure in detail, but basically amounted to wanting to show involvement in the Gaza crisis. This produced a violent Israeli response which for the first time targeted not just the South, but the suburbs of Beirut where Hezbollah had a presence. This plunged the nation into crisis and further damaged the economy. Eventually, Hezbollah was getting so badly hammered that it threw in the towel, and backed off, enabling the Lebanese political process to restart.
In 2026, Hezbollah, partly under Iranian pressure, involved itself in the war between Israel and Iran and the result has been devastating. Most Lebanese don’t like Iran, because of its negative influence in the country, and they like Israel even less. It’s not their war, but their country may be collateral damage.
All this is well-known and even if you haven’t been to the country you will have read about it on sites like NC.
I’m sure your description here and above is largely correct.
What I still don’t understand is how that all intersects with an expansionist Israel (assuming that they do want to grab chunks of Lebanon et al).
Does bad behavior by Hezbollah merely serve to bring forward the inevitable land grab, or does it actually make it more inevitable and reduce the capacity of anyone to restrain Israel?
Hezbollah formed in response to an earlier Israeli invasion of Lebanon. Bombing Beirut was a thing back then too. It’s any resistance to expansion of Israeli control and refusal to become a compliant puppet state (like Jordan), that draws the wrath of the Israeli war machine down on you. Hezbollah is the latest instance of an Evil Terrorist Villain that has to be subdued by bombing civilians and demolishing whole towns. If you notice, Hezbollah is mostly hitting military bases and miltary industrial complex sites instead of apartment buildings, schools, and houses of worship as the Israelis do.
Who has a positive influence in Lebanon? Is Iran’s influence always negative?
Between 2024 and 2026, Israel was bombing Lebanon non stop in violation of ceasefire agreements. That Hizb’ullah was overly aggressive and lost much sympathy at home (and for that matter, for getting too openly involved in Syria), no doubt, but I’m not so sure last two years earned Israel much, if any, sympathy in Lebanon, except, possibly, in thd veru far north.
actually Israel is essentially negotiating with itself.
Iran really should have saturation bombed the US embassy complex in Beirut (and the one in the Baghdad “Green Zone” for that matter). These embassies are actively organizing intelligence and paramilitary operations against the people of Lebanon (and Iraq) and probably half the staff are CIA. Under the circumstances they should be considered military targets. It is mind-boggling the extent to which Iran and Russia try to be goody-goody and observe all kinds of international behavioral norms that the US and its proxies have repeatedly spat on and desecrated.
Shaiel Ben-Ephraim provides a concise overview of the current crisis in Lebanon:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fvrom9iLao
Would US Navy mess with Iranian-flagged vessels in Iranian coastal waters East of the Strait? That would be a violation of the cease-fire and might overcome Iranian reluctance to launch strikes against US naval assets that have moved closer to the Strait to impose the blockade. I would think they would have to let them pass and hope to chase them down later after they have reached open ocean far from the Iranian coastline.
Good luck in your travels, Yves.
And thanks, Nat, for stepping up to cover the blog during her trip.
what a horrible mess, I am so sorry you have to go through this. I hope the flight at least resolves everything.
In identifying himself with Jesus President Trump likely views impeachment as crucifixion…
Vice President JD Vance, a Catholic, allegedly was the only Trump cabinet member to say attacking Iran not a good idea. Trump shows his displeasure with Vance by telling The Pope he’s not doing a good job (either)…
If say we had our ‘Seedy Vacante’…
Were white smoke to come out of the chimney, would that mean another White Nationalist?
Vance has weighed in:
Vice President JD Vance invoked World War II on Tuesday to defend the U.S. bombing of Iran from criticism by Pope Leo XIV, extending the Trump administration’s spat with the Catholic Church and underlining the White House’s struggle to justify an unpopular war.
Mr. Vance, who is Catholic, told a conservative audience at the University of Georgia that the pope was wrong to say that disciples of Christ are “never on the side of those who once wielded the sword and today drop bombs.”
Vance Says the Pope Should Be More Careful When Talking About Theology
Comparing US entry into WWII with an unprovoked attack on Iran is beyond specious. And who does Vance think he is to lecture the Pope on Catholic theology? Vance needs to stop pretending to be a Catholic and go back to whatever Evangelical sect he came from.
I believe JD Vance may be the only US Vice President to whom the Pope (the late Pope Francis) has sent an envoy to tell him that he was misinterpreting Church teachings.
Atta boy JD.
That would be meth…
…..odist
or was it oxy?
Objectively speaking – as an atheist – Jesus had one memorable episode when he wasn’t very peaceful: the driving out of merchants from the Temple. Although it’s ironic that every artistically relevant Catholic church in Europe has a parish souvenir booth nowadays, the point was made and I’m pretty sure he’d be whipping Vance and his fellow adorers of filthy lucre out of churches were he to come back in the present time.
And no doubt he’d have been against all sides in WW2, a war in the name of capital and in which elites jostled for dominance just as any other (with the possible exception of China and the USSR, which really were attacked parties and in the case of the latter, had attempted to make alliances with the UK, France and Poland to box the Reich in till the last moment). Another irony that isn’t lost on me is that most European religious leaders of major denominations helped create the war fever prior to WW1, and the only major group of people who tried to stop the war till the last minute were… the godless communists.
So yeah, Vance doesn’t know what he’s talking about. While the RCC has its own “Deus vult” skeletons in the closet, speaking against war in all its forms is much closer to their own original doctrine. Of course, I don’t think for one second Vance believes his own blather. I wonder where he attends Mass. He probably found some foaming “death to infidels” priest to listen to, or an anodyne one who only talks about heaven and sins of the flesh in the homilies.
But man, do I hate this WW2 as just war routine.
Prior to 1941 the USSR invaded Finland and Poland and annexed the Baltic States. They also made territorial demands on some other neighbouring countries.
They had their reasons, and maybe even some justification (immutable and eternal borders apparently only becoming a thing in eastern Europe with Ukraine in 1958) but they weren’t sitting there peacefully just hoping not to be attacked.
True, that’s why I said “arguably”.
I don’t think this is the place to discuss what the SU did in 1939-40, or the Polish miscalculations during the 1930s. Suffice to say that I don’t buy the Bloodlands thesis.
But your point is taken. I was merely expressing my disgust for Vance’s sanctimonious “WW2 was a just war that Jesus would’ve supported” tripe. Not saying I’m a “turn the other face” type: there are defensive wars with a clear aggressor, but I feel they’ve become preciously rare in the past 200 years. And WW2 doesn’t quailfy. Not by a long shot.
One could justifiably say that the USSR liberated these regions from both German Reich occupation and the Prussian yoke that kept them in serfdom for hundreds of years. The USSR gifted the Baltics statehood within the SSR and frankly brought them up from factually documented medieval conditions of livelihood to communist middle class for the vast majority.
As a somewhat agrieved party (Romanian), the USSR has taken a chunk of Romania too in 1940 (present day R of Moldova), I blame it entirely on the Germans. Why. The 1939 Treaty of non agression btw Germany and USSR gave free hand to Russia in those territories. Of course Hitler knew that he is in fact making friends, and, with except of Poland, all the grieved parties will join in the war against Soviet Union. Hungary joined as well because Hitler double tapped Romania, punting a piece of territory to the Hungarians in 1940. Russians knew that war is coming so they wanted to make it as far away from their core territories as possible.
Jesus was the original socialist!
Word! Capitalism is a disease of materialism.
The closest analogy is if the US is Germany and Iran is Poland. Pretty sure that still wouldn’t meet any reasonable level of proof that the Pope is wrong.
If so, where is Iranian Teschen? (I suppose one could say Iraq…)
You could hear the sound of Vance’s support draining away. See also pictures from Vance’s venue at the recent TPUSA event. Lots of empty seats. Charlie Kirk’s widow, apparently a more savvy politician than Vance, made an excuse and cancelled rather to speak to a 1/4 full auditorium.
He was wearing his WWJB bracelet.
Who Would Jesus Bomb
There are 6 or 7 major conditions that St Augustine (Pope Leo an Augustinian priest, was in Augustine’s home town Hippo yesterday) laid out. All must be cleared before a Christian can be absolved to participate in government executed mass murder.
Even WW II is a near miss on Just War.
Vance should stick to doing what Trump and Bibi say and not tilt with Augustine.
No! Please No!. That would mean that resurrection is on the way.
VP Vance has since sided with Trump, telling The Pope to keep his nose out of it… Clearly he’s sucking up to Trump, hoping to get back into Trump’s ‘good’ books…
55% US Catholics are said to have voted for Trump, so why alienate them when he’ll need every vote he can get mid-terms to head-off being crucified ? He Has A Plan ?
Safe trip Yves. Good luck with your Citibank problem.Thank you so much for what you do here. I look forward every day to NC’s analysis of the Iran war.
No worries, contrary to Trump’s proclamations hourly, there’ll still be a war when you’re back!
This is way over my paygrade, but it got me thinking nonetheless: as per the Yahoo article below, Iran and the USA have been on opposing sides regarding the legal status of the Strait of Hormuz in the context of transit rights. Iran is on the side of so-called “innocent passage” whereas the USA is on the side of so-called “transit passage”. These two differing view of the status of the SoH also lead to differing views on whether adjacent countries (i.e. Iran and Oman) have jurisdiction over it. It matters a great deal if it is sea-size “channel” or a kind of inland sea.
But the interesting point of this article is the notion of “persistent objector”. Both Iran and the USA have been persistent objectors of the other’s legal view (and in case of the USA, not only regarding Hormuz but elsewhere too). The article states:
This got me thinking: Iran’s view on Hormuz is not a sudden issue, nor is it something the USA didn’t know. So could it be that the Pentagon had this idea of a blockade lying somewhere in a bottom drawer? And have they gamed it out somehow? It seems as much a military as a legal confrontation, and like the article says, countries have to be aware of their behaviour as not to damage their “persistent objector” status by accident.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/strait-hormuz-why-us-iran-000405075.html
Thanks for the link which is important legal detail.
But detail it is. Since the debate is about the requirements of “international law” then the USA and Israel–as two of the greatest violators and underminers of international law–are like bank robbers arguing in court whether they did or did not violate the speed limit during their post robbery getaway. Their attack on Iran is a grotesque violation of international law and so any view that includes justice and not mere special pleading has to come down on the side of Iran. Shorter USA/Israel/Europe: “it’s ok when we do it.”
It’s the mantra of our very dishonest era and thanks to NC (and sympathy for travel troubles) which has been covering our shape shifter elites back to the similarly grotesque 2008 bailout and before. You can’t run societies on pure self interest which is why rightwinger Thatcher liked to pretend there’s no such thing as society and rightwinger Rand liked to pretend that the wealthy hold up the world on their shoulders. They are lying to themselves as much as they are to us.
“So could it be that the Pentagon had this idea of a blockade lying somewhere in a bottom drawer?”
I’ve read that it has indeed had plans for such a blockade for a while.
I had a thought about the blockade. What if the right precedent is the Continental System and the British naval blockade of Napoleon?
Iran is refusing to allow Gulf trade with the West. The US is refusing to allow Gulf trade with anybody. The net effect is a continental blockade. Only the Oman can export through the Indian Ocean.
Saudi can export through the Red Sea but if Ansarallah can close the Bab all Mandeb, Saudi will have to export in small crude carrriers through the Red Sea and around the Cape or through the Panama canal. Iran could even close the Suez canal, at least for a time, with some well chosen missiles.
Let’s say Iran and the US continue in a stalemate for years. Then Arabian oil and gas has a choice: exit in new pipelines through Jordan and Syria to Turkey; through Iraq to Turkey (but this is in Iran’s sphere of influence) or through Iran, to Turkey or Central Asia or South Asia.
Different players may make different choices. Iraq and Qatar may decide to export through Iran. Saudi, Kuwait and Bahrain may go for Jordan. Saudi and UAE etc may go for export through the Oman.
But the Gulf may be shut for years and Turkey and Iran and Pakistan / Turkmenistan may be the big winners on transit in the long term.
The US is blockading only the ships leaving Iranian ports.
Yes – I was including Iran in the blockade. Britain blockaded the Continent but Napoleon returned the favour and forbad exports to Britain.
It doesn’t really matter who thought they were blockading whom, Europe settled into an equilibrium of hostile trading blocs for decades.
Arab media reports on a man who continues to protest alone in front of the Israeli Embassy in Tokyo:
https://x.com/savashaberjp/status/2044274264824836410
Same update to the flag of Israel displayed in the Polish Parliament:
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/181981
Polish MP Konrad Berkowicz: “Israel is the new Third Reich”.
Stay safe, Yves. Sorry you are forced into this and even with excellent coverage support we will expectantly wait for your return…
Not to be a conspiracy theorist, but is someone just trying to cause you trouble? You are a heretic and “follow the money.”
“Debanking” seems to be the technical term.
Please stop. This is not even remotely that.
Citi has form. They once debited an even $30,000 from my account in the 1980s. I quickly made a stink and they quickly reversed it
And I am far too inconsequential to merit that. Only high profile people are roughed up that way.
Lol. You are high profile.
As the Delta between futures and physical oil widens and maintains, it seems to me intuitively— I haven’t done the research nor know how to do the research— it seems to be abject market manipulation to keep gas prices as low as possible since gas prices correlate to the future‘s price somebody said earlier
And I think earlier commentators also said that the futures market was easier to manipulate
(But they may have been talking about stock market futures I don’t remember)
Due to leverage in the future’s market, it’s much easier for speculators to get themselves in trouble. As Yves has pointed out many times, financial advice is forbidden here. I’ll only repeat a fact that she shared that 70% of futures traders, lose money.
Keeping the future market price low is only a short term fix for headlines. If the actual price at delivery the companies are paying remains at 150 a barrel that is what’s going to be passed on in inflation through all of the products that this thing touches.
Good luck with your trip Yves.
I do not envy you.
Safe travels.
I would have thought the loss of 20% of natural gas supplies that have nothing to do with Hormuz or oil futures might have got Mr Market’s attention. Apparently not.
Arbitrage_Macht_Frei
“Do you want macht freis with that harmburger?”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYJ7NU8fwDY
For all you highbrow gardeners, and those interested in international affairs mixed in with with agriculture. This podcast with Geoff Lawton discussing his experiences in Iran was really fascinating. It’s a nice related, but very different sort of discussion on the region that we in the west often know very little about.
Irani lego AIslop are great; “recognition that AI compute shortage is bigger than oil supply shortage is here.”
There would be no shortage of compute if the users of compute paid the full freight, in which case there is too much compute!
The markets are driven by a combination of internal reports being read by LLMS plus external news items being read by LLMS plus traditional fast reacting ai models of the markets, driven primarily by higher order derivatives of market behavior, correct? In the short to medium terms, you have AIs chasing a pseudo random number generator.
So trump says something stupid, human beings (non-morons) ignore it as nonsense, but the LLMS aren’t trained to recognize trump as a troll to be ignored, and thus it works as a market manipulation — even if it were, it only takes a small number of morons (human) to get fed into the system as a probability to create a higher order derivative affect that would be amplified by other AIs taking that into account.
The correction will thus be truly awesome.
And thus we know that markets don’t solve the calculation problem any better than a central committee with a few experts listening to Twitter
If the dated barrel stay at $150, that is what companies are actually going to pay. That will show up in earnings reports for Q2. I’m not aware when those reports get made public, but that seems to be the first time there will be “hard data “ for all of the downstream effects to start making themselves visible on paper. I’d love other people’s thoughts.
Earnings reports are coming out for Q1 (including March) right now. March includes the period of the war and strait closure.
Delta, American, United, and all the other airlines that are public will need to hit the confessional booth.
The soaring jet fuel prices will have a material impact on their bottom lines. United already warned.
Small anecdata –
I flew over the weekend and had my seat changed on one flight. The reason given was that they switched from a smaller to a larger jet since the first had filled up. But there were quite a few empty seats on the larger one. That practice was new to me. On the last leg of the return trip, there were all kinds of empty seats – I could have had my own row if I moved. I don’t fly all that often, but I haven’t seen empty seats like that for many years.
TACO? Market manipulation? Fake news? The possibilities are ENDLESS…but it may be that the US blockade has left the building.
https://www.rt.com/news/638459-trump-opening-hormuz-strait/
Indeed, from the Whitehouse account.
https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/2044386660469579904
That lasted all of a few days.
In the meantime, the economic damage incoming continues to grow, Taco or not.
That’s not how I read Trump’s post at all.
It’s just him bragging about non existent wins. There’s nothing to indicate the blockade is over, or that anything at all has changed. It’s meaningless noise IMO.
Text of the source post for both links in above comments:
China is very happy that I am permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz. I am doing it for them, also – And the World. This situation will never happen again. They have agreed not to send weapons to Iran. President Xi will give me a big, fat, hug when I get there in a few weeks. We are working together smartly, and very well! Doesn’t that beat fighting??? BUT REMEMBER, we are very good at fighting, if we have to – far better than anyone else!!! President DJT
Very presidential speaking style….
This douche sounds like an illiterate 10 year old who watched too many cartoons.
I read that differently–I thought “permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz” referred not to simply reversing the US blockade but to somehow reversing the Iranian closure. Piecing together bits of the fog: (1) FM Muneer just landed in Tehran for a ‘high level meeting’ and there’s a picture of him with Araghchi, (2) he’s reportedly “bringing an indirect message from the US, (3) it’s suggested elsewhere in the thread that Pakistan is essentially fronting for China as well, and (4) there are unsubstantiated rumors floating around that mostly seem to have their ultimate source in the US that talks are going to resume and the ceasefire extended; I’m guessing that the US has prepared an offer that they actually think Iran will accept and this was discussed in some way with Xi.
Since the US seems quite delusional about what Iran might actually find acceptable, I’m also guessing this will turn out to be another nothingtaco.
All total conjecture on my part and I welcome rebuttal….
I think the US will promise anything they have to to extend the ceasefire so that they can get troops and equipment on the ground, bombs and missiles restocked, and target lists repopulated. They’ve kind of got Iran in a bind, because Iran wants to appear sensitive to the suffering an extended closure would cause to the world, especially non-Western countries. But it seems to me that extended delay is erasing any strategic advantage that the Iranians possessed a week ago.
No, their advantage comes from the closure of the Strait. Period.
Lawrence Wilkerson sniggered at the idea that we have any troops and kit to send. Our weapons stocks are bare and all we have are special forces. Great for raids not much good in a huge country like Iran.
I’m pretty sure that the US could scrape together a division or two. But they’d essentially be light infantry with not much more than small arms and definitely worth a Lawrence Wilkerson snigger or two as far as any actual effectiveness in dealing with Iran. Not quite sure how they’d even GET them to Iran to be ineffective, but that’s a different question entirely.
ETA: Ouch. I’m back in moderation. *sigh* :-(
I find this piece interesting.
It starts with “Iran accepted a ceasefire it did not want, brokered by a mediator it did not choose, on terms that excluded the war being fought in its name. The architecture of that arrangement, and the forty days of bombing that produced it, expose the operating system of a world in which two states decide and the rest are informed.”
USA & China are deciding. China is playing a double edged game, not an ally of Iran, but an ally of China and only China.
That is why Iran wasn’t negotiating, wasn’t negotiating, wasn’t going to negotiate. And then it WAS negotiating, blindsiding people like Nima for example.
The negotiations turned up like a drive by. Because Iran was hit by a Chinese drive by.
https://www.frametheglobenews.com/p/iran-war-the-two-powers-in-the-room?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=3284243&post_id=194238548&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1auay&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
“White people don’t seem to believe in Asia as something connected to them”
What do USAmericans attribute their rising petrol prices to?
Americans have a very distorted view on money spent or sacrifices made in the name of war.
You can drum up endless vitriol for someone doing “welfare fraud“. But if you bring up the facts that the F 35 is not that great and cost $1.5 trillion dollars, they just shrug their shoulders and say “freedom isn’t free“
It’s the same thing with gas prices. If the gas prices were going up for a social justice, cause people would be upset. But they’re gonna have to go a lot higher before there’s any unrest because the proximate cause is war
In the USA when you’re driving around, the only thing you’ll see with a listed price is gasoline, and in large enough numbers that you can see it from a distance away.
Hard not to notice the 20%+ increase in price since the war started…
George Carlin had a good bit. That the 1% owns and controls everything.
Then there is the homeless, Who are there to scare the shit out of the middle class.
My take on higher gas, is the upper middle class + 1% that owns 95% of stocks doesn’t care as longs as employees can get to work.
The auto funding of 401ks the most middle class people don’t really have control of directly. As long as that keeps getting money flowing to it and the number is going up, the upper middle class will stay very pliant.
“If the gas prices were going up for a social justice, cause people would be upset. But they’re gonna have to go a lot higher before there’s any unrest because the proximate cause is war”
I’ve heard they have little idea of geography, but don’t (white) USAmericans realise the war’s in Asia?
Like Mark Twain said, “ God created war so that Americans would learn about geography “. In the book Innocents abroad.
If they still think what happens in Asia isn’t connected to them, they’re slow learners. Where do they imagine Iran is?
Government is always inefficient and always an infringement on freedom. Well, I mean, except for the Pentagon, of course.
Not true. The government(s) are highly efficient when it comes to social welfare: Medicare, SNAP, USPS, infrastructure, emergency services, etc. You know, all those programs oligarchs hate.
The inefficiency in some sectors (DOD, SEC, FDA, etc) is due to the graft built into it. There is no problem, it is working as it was intended to.
Apologies that I didn’t make my sarcasm more obvious
Just mentioning the Pentagon did that my man!
🤣
USians are among the most conditioned, misinformed, propagandized population in history. I have seen reports of differing levels of functional illiteracy around 25% percent of the adult population . The level of geographic ignorance is infamous, how many ‘merkans could find Iran on a map? Even the emperor is bone ignorant. The US is in general an anti-intellectual society that celebrates ignorance and war crimes. Many of the educational institutions are corrupt and produce “educated fools” who believe in Junk Economics, US democracy, and other garbage.
“…building church and university, graduating thieves and murderers…” (Bob Marley, So Much Trouble)
“The US is in general an anti-intellectual society that celebrates ignorance and war crimes.”
Go back for decades and you’ll see “merkans” voting for politicians that make claims they are going to stop needless wars or get into some war. It’s always a hail mary that turns to betrayal.
That’s not a “celebration of war crimes”.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/caracas-to-hormuz-to-malacca-how-trump-is-trying-to-strangle-chinas-oil-11360453?pfrom=home-ndtv_topscroll
“The Malacca Gambit: How China Oil-Choke Strategy Could Backfire On Trump” More escalation?
Maybe im missing something. But from what I understand China is nearly 85% energy independent. Iran provides only about 10-15% of the roughly 15% of Chinas energy imports. I dont imagine they see that as enough of a threat to challenge directly the U.S militarily over this. I think as Yves has pointed out the real threat is if this goes on for another couple month the toll it will take on the Asian economies which are major markets for Chinese exports, be it consumer goods or other inputs for those Asian industries. I still hear many well informed commentators and analysts harping on about how the blockade is a serious threat to China energy imports. Such as Pape who mentioned it on breaking points today. I think I must be missing something?
One something is the use of oil as chemical feedstock, not just energy:
Tracing fossil-based plastics, chemicals and fertilizers production in China [2024]
> Results show in 2017, the chemical industry used 0.18 Gt of coal, 88.8 Mt of crude oil, and 12.9 Mt of natural gas as feedstock, constituting 5%, 15%, and 7% of China’s respective total use.
China The World’s Biggest Plastic Producer
> China was responsible for 34 percent of production of the big four polymers last year
https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1862139698730780197&wfr=spider&for=pc
pakistan is a proxy for china in facilitating the negotiations
https://theprint.in/opinion/china-negotiating-iran-ceasefire-talks-pakistan/2905386/
The article text does not support the claim in the headline. I think it’s just Indian slop reporting mainly quoting random social media posts. It’s easy to see why “Pakistan is China’s proxy” is click-friendly in India.
Pakistan is talking to all sides it seems. I’m sure they pass on China’s viewpoint in discussions but this does not equal proxydom.
Of more interest is Pakistan’s role in the Saudi-Iran relationship. Pakistan had the military presence in Saudi earlier this week and now Iran is hosting a bunch of Pakistanis for talks.
The CFPB helped me when a certain unnamed airline committed fraud in the inducement by lying to me at the check-in area of Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson airport, making illusory promises to induce me to upgrade a credit card with higher annual fees. I filed a complaint and got my money back very quickly (after wasting countless hours on the phone with both the airline and the sponsored credit card company).
It is a shame that Taco mothballed the CFPB; however, it might be worth filing a complaint there just to get it documented.
Just a thought, Yves. I send you lots of good vibes getting this resolved.
Scoop: Dems File 5 Impeachment Articles Against Hegseth
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/15/iran-war-pete-hegseth-congress-impeachment-articles-democrats-reflecting-search-interest-order
Iran reportedly bought an in-orbit Chinese satellite to target US military sites in the Middle East — purchase agreement included ongoing ground control services based in China
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/iran-reportedly-bought-an-in-orbit-chinese-satellite-to-target-us-military-sites-in-the-middle-east-purchase-agreement-included-ongoing-ground-control-services-based-in-china
‘Xi will give me big, fat hug’: Trump says he opened Hormuz for China and the world
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/xi-will-give-me-big-fat-hug-trump-says-he-opened-hormuz-for-china-and-the-world/articleshow/130284475.cms
Italy will not renew defence agreement with Israel, Meloni says
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr71184ex91o
‘Enough Is Enough’: Sanders Moves to Force Votes Against Trump Arms Sales to Israel
https://www.commondreams.org/news/sanders-resolutions-arms-sales-israel
Democrats Formally File 25th Amendment Bill to Get Rid of Trump – House Democrats have filed a bill to investigate President Trump’s mental fitness.
https://newrepublic.com/post/209055/democrats-file-25th-amendment-bill-get-rid-trump
Erika Kirk Backs Out of Turning Point Event with JD Vance Over ‘Serious Threats’
https://people.com/erika-kirk-backs-out-of-turning-point-event-with-jd-vance-over-serious-threats-11950140
Marines on way to Middle East seen using rifles with anti-drone smart scope
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/marines-drone-optic-2026/
Have a safe trip, Yves. I hope you have some time to relax. Try not to worry too much.
Re: Sanders, I think an old cartoon exclamation is more appropriate (and pardon my mis-spelling): “Enough is (way) too much!”
In the article on the counter-drone scope, a photo of a 11th MEU Marine having duck-taped wires to his rifle with what I hope is not issued duck tape, ie it’s covered in skulls. Are we the baddies?
Also, it’s hard to believe a smart scope wired to the trigger works well enough to catch a drone in midflight.
My 2 bits says the manufacturer of the Smash (“For mash get Smash!”) scope has a buddy in the procurement chain.
Per NBC News
U.S. military turned back six ships in first 24 hours of Iranian port blockade (NBC)
Based on a US official, though, so who knows.
What exactly is Trumps mission in Iran? It seems that he has assumed the mantle of The AntiChrist. Given Zionist beliefs (Both Jewish and Evangelicals) this makes the most sense. Also fits his personality, if you want to call it that.
While listening to Davis and Macgregor did anyone feel that the Colonel was speaking to active duty colleagues?
Yesterday Alexander Mercouris reported on a series of calls by Russian foreign minister Lavrov, starting with his call with Iran’s Araghchi regarding Russia’s willingness to work on seeking solutions that address the root causes of the conflict with the US and Israel (which Lavrov said cannot be resolved militarily) and achieve a long term stabilization in the region taking into account the legitimate interests of Iran and its neighbors. Lavrov offered to help develop a collective security architecture for the Persian Gulf involving all littoral states in the Gulf region and supported by extra-regional countries capable of making a “constructive” contribution to the negotiating process (presumably not including the US or Israel). Lavrov then called the Turkiye foreign minister inviting them to join in the process, and he accepted. Lavrov also called the foreign minister of the UAE on this proposal, and then left for China to meet with its foreign minister. At the same time President Xi of China also called the crown prince of Abu Dhabi to make essentially the same pitch. What seems to be afoot is an attempt to create a security agreement among the Gulf states and Iran which would be backed by Russia, China, and possibly Turkiye and Pakistan. I assume that if implemented this would greatly reduce, if not eliminate, US influence in the region and further isolate Israel. Something to watch to see how (and if) it progresses.
Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cYL9G9krlc
How does leaving Israel out of the negotiations about the regions help?
That only removes discussion about Israel’s borders and nuclear arsenal/program.
See my comment below. Israel gets nuked if they Nuke Iran in this arrangement.
We’ll see if Iran takes Hezbollahs back still. But I hope the rest of the world has had enough of Israel’s bullshit. I saw a good quote from Carl Zha on twitter:
The world needs the strait of Hormuz, it doesn’t need Israel.
China and Russia will not be nuking Israel. Show me where they would make that a guarantee.
Nothing has been said about that and it won’t be in any agreement.
Making stuff up…
When are Russia and China going to get them all together, including Israel, and talk about the “Greater Israel” mess?
You are right. I haven’t watched the link yet, so I could very well making stuff up. In my head “security agreement” would mean we (China and Russia) will eliminate anyone that nukes you (Iran). They don’t have to nuke Israel to accomplish that. Thanks for checking me.
Also, to get the US to go along with that, it seems like more pain has to be inflicted for the US to accept those conditions so probably not happening soon.
I am letting my desire for it to be over to influence my thinking.
Once the nuclear genie is out of the bottle then lots of people will feel justified in nuking Israel. I think the China/Russia message is “sow the wind reap the whirlwind.” Nukes are not something where the Israelis can as usual “ask for forgiveness rather than permission.” Use nukes and they are over.
Israel isn’t isolated from other countries with nukes.
And if anybody has a “dead hand”…it would be Israel.
China and Russia are not ideologically aligned with Iran (it’s about business) and they haven’t “unfriended” Israel to the extent people seem to want to believe.
Besides, their economic concerns are not confined to that region.
Also in Israel, 15% of the population are Russian speakers. So that.
Pakistan has already stated that they will nuke israel if it nukes any Islamic country.
why anybody takes this claim as anything more than posturing is beyond me. Setting aside that this is a coup regime beholden to the US for its existence, Pakistan is under, what, its 24th IMF bailout?
Egypt, another big military regime supported by the US, didn’t lift a finger and in fact abetted and profited from the genocide of a majority-Muslim nation on its doorstep.
Assuming Pakistan even wanted to nuke Israel, pro-Israel states, chiefly the US, have ample leverage to ensure nobody serious about following through is anywhere near the launch codes.
Mikel, a very good question that begs many other questions. How much longer is the US going to unconditionally support Israel with weapons? Will the possible Democratic takeover of the House and Senate in the midterms make that support less likely? The “littoral states” on the Persian Gulf are Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman. What happens with Syria, which Turkiye has designs on, and Lebanon? Would a combination of the prospect of weakening US support for Israel and a confrontation with Turkiye backed by Russia and China, not to mention the apparent possibility of Israel’s military collapsing, sufficiently dampen Israel’s hopes for territorial gains to precipitate a change in Israel’s government to one more amenable to diplomatic solutions? One can dream, I suppose.
The most likely thing I see is that they scapegoat Bibi.
My boomer Dem parents, seem to think it was all his idea and fault, but Israel is fine. Then the dems/Israel regroup and figure out how to fight later when things are resolved with Iran.
Depends what Bibi really has in blackmail, and how strong his commitment is to not taking the fall. I should probably stop speculating, as Mikel revealed above it’s likely I could be slipping into making shit up.
I think that Congress, whoever is in control, will find ways to ignore the preferences of the American people. Best case, there will be performative votes that fail by a few votes (the decisive defeating votes will be cast by selected lawmakers who can afford to antagonize their constituents; this is a well-established pattern in the Senate, for example). This will allow the Party to claim it is on the side of good, while continuing to do whatever it pleases.
This would be great. I don’t know how long it will take to come together, but it would be awesome.
Iran can give up weapon ambitions in a statement so the US can feel like it won. And have the guarantee of China and Russia that they will use theirs on anyone that uses nukes on them.
No one (save alien tech) is ever going to mount a ground invasion in Iran, so I could see this working. If Iran gets money to rebuild I could see them going for it.
I listened to Mercouris yesterday. What he didn’t say was if this sort of security arrangement occurred then we can kiss the petrodollar goodbye.
The demand for “instant info” and the insistence of influencers on satisfying it aren’t helping at all here
The only answer about the US maybe blockade is that we don’t know yet exactly what it even is, and there hasn’t even been enough time for other players to determine and begin to execute such responses as they may have. Shipping traffic is probably in a holding pattern hoping for clarity to develop. Beyond that, it looks like nothing is really known.
This makes sense. It will take all parties affected to get their responses figured out and then time to get the plans put into action. It’s not like everyones Navy was already deployed and ready to go
You may want to add CarolinaLion2 to your twitter feed. He doesn’t post as prolifically as ripplebrain and is much mor terse, but has been very good so far
Take it fwiw
Iran responds to Trump’s blockade. Per Sayed Marandi: “If the US continues its naval blockade of the region, Iran’s powerful armed forces will not allow any imports or exports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea.”
And Alon Mizarhi’s commentary of the significance of this announcement.
Very important. Moon of Alabama also has a post on this development.
Iran’s practice of offering opponents a way to save face has been suspended.
Hamas rejects US-led disarmament plan, demands changes to proposal
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-893098
North Korea boosting ability to manufacture nuclear arms, IAEAs chief warns
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/15/north-korea-boosting-ability-to-make-nuclear-arms-iaea
Japan offers $10 billion support to help Asian neighbours secure oil
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/japan-plans-10-billion-framework-help-asia-secure-oil-2026-04-15/
NDTV: In Trump’s Post On Strait Of Hormuz, A “China Very Happy” Message
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/in-trumps-post-on-strait-of-hormuz-a-china-very-happy-message-11361371
China moves to block entrance to disputed South China Sea shoal, images show
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-moves-block-entrance-disputed-south-china-sea-shoal-images-show-2026-04-15/
US Won’t Renew Iranian, Russian Oil Waivers, Bessent Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-15/us-won-t-renew-iranian-russian-oil-waivers-bessent-says-mo0cwii7
Iran offers proposal allowing ships to exit Oman side of Hormuz free of attack
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-offers-proposal-allowing-ships-exit-oman-side-hormuz-free-attack-source-2026-04-15/
Forgive me given my time stress for not running down this in Tasnim. In the last hour:
https://x.com/Tasnimbrk/status/2044477925731287168
Thanks for the update. And of course the WH denies they asked for an extension to the ceasefire.
Muneer isn’t wearing a tie.
This is a big sign of respect towards Iran, because Iranian officials never wear ties (in case you haven’t noticed).
In Iranian culture, ties are perceived as a sign of Western / American influence and political dishonesty.
https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/31021#
I agree with that: the suit and tie is an elitist and anachronistic costume made popular by western European ruling classes and PMC, over a century ago, it is often ill suited to the local climate, and it’s uncomfortable. I haven’t worn a tie in at least 25 years and I will never again do so. I respect Iranians for rejecting the cultural imperialism, as well as other forms of imperialism
Ties are an excellent way of cutting off oxygen to the brain. This helps one in ascending the executive career ladder, where willingness to jump on the latest hype train and blind belief in faddish buzzwords are far more valued than brain power. And, like high heels for women, they signify willing submission to physical torture in the pursuit of social acceptance.
Trump posts a picture of Jesus hugging him days after his AI-deity image drew widespread anger
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-jesus-photo-backlash-ai-b2958240.html
Cyberscammers are bypassing banks’ security with illicit tools sold on Telegram
https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/04/15/1135898/cyberscammers-bypassing-bank-telegram/
Iran embassy in Tajikistan posts AI video of Jesus punching Trump in the face
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5832224-iran-trump-social-media-war/
USS Gerald R Ford breaks record for longest US aircraft carrier deployment since Vietnam War
https://www.forcesnews.com/usa/uss-gerald-r-ford-breaks-record-longest-us-aircraft-carrier-deployment-vietnam-war
Trump says he asked China’s Xi not to give Iran weapons
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-says-he-asked-chinas-xi-not-give-iran-weapons-2026-04-15/
Iran digging for buried missile launchers
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/04/15/iran-digging-for-buried-missile-launchers/
Big fire at one of the two remaining Australian oil refineries last night. They will have to bring in war time measures here now. The other one is also supposed to delay shutdown works for the crisis but that is stupid unless they want a fire at that one as well.
Just in time is coming home to roost everywhere. Mongolia has woken up and is going full Russian fuel supplies with a crash program of tanks and pipelines and long term contracts. All countries need long term supplies regardless of price going forward. We are all going to be vassals of our energy suppliers.
Probably aging infrastructure being driven too hard.
But I imagine a lot of people will ask whether it was a subversive attack
Bessent says gas prices will fall by September? I’m sure they would love to manipulate the market just in time for the “midterms” but I don’t see that happening.
“…I am optimistic that sometime between June 20 and September 20, we can have $3 gas again…”
How can any journalist or knowledgeable person believe anything from folks with a long track record of lies and willful deceit? Fool me once, fool me a thousand times
“Optimistic” is a bit of a telling word in this statement. He’s such a bizarre person.
Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, citing sources:
The Israeli army has set three conditions for any agreement with Lebanon, including
– A buffer zone up to the Litani River
– Maintaining Israel’s freedom of action in Lebanon
– A long-term path to disarming Hezbullah under American supervision.
WILKERSON with NIMA – the first half so far has some good details (at last new to me.)
recommended
60 min.
https://rumble.com/v78iprq-col.-larry-wilkerson-its-over-iran-wipes-out-trumps-bully-tactic-on-live-ma.html?e9s=src_v1_cbl%2Csrc_v1_ucp_a
For instance he highlights railways as a potential alternative to the Street of Hormuz by which the entire US naval empire logic would be rendered totally useless.
While ships need 2,5 days railways he estimates at 16 hours.
Thus the US bombing of railway lines. Directed against China.
In this regard Wilkerson does feed the anti-China strategy into the war – when he is trying to look for rationales for what is going on right now. Because the Israel trope he thinks does not suffice by now.
He suggests that at this level of the war the usual Israel/Zionist control via AIPAC DOES NOT entangle any more. It´s too big he says. It must be larger players and different interest groups.
In this as he says he disagrees with Mearsheimer by now.
When asked about the blockade Wilkerson says “I don´t know what is going on”. Is the closure effective or not – he has no definite answer.
As to the AI-copies of him – that´s also funny. Because Wilkerson acknowledges the texts that have been obviously written by the videos´ creators and they are on a decent quality level he says himself.
In said video the fake Wilkerson claims that – I think Tel Aviv (?) – has no edible water any more. The real Wilkerson has no way of knowing but if it were true, big revelation of course.
So in fact he of course wishes them being taken down (as already written, so far YT has not reacted to his pleas) but it is not nonsensical or hurting his cause as such. He actually calls them “lectures” which he is giving on YT.
So he has humour for sure. Kudos.
Am not finished yet. But wanted to share this fwiw.
Edit: Potable water in Tel Aviv, not edible
From Breaking Points with Prof. Pape. utube, ~19+ minutes.
Professor Pape: Trump Ceasefire Will FAIL As War Metastasizes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJXG6YAMcD4
If any one were curious, I tracked down the source of the graphic Yves posted in links Links 4/14/2026 — 324 of the 435 members of Congress are controlled by Israel:
https://www.trackaipac.com/
I know nothing about this site and made no investigations beyond finding the list of members of Congress representing my state who had received funding from AIPAC. I would be interested to see something, a graphic comparable to the AIPAC graphic indicating how many members of Congress were affiliated with the CIA, and how many of those running for seats this year are similarly compromised.
Lebanon ceasefire expected tonight after Iranian pressure: Exclusive
That did not take long!
US Petroleum Balance Sheet week ended Apr 10 2026.
Net imports to U.S. were 66 thousand barrels per day average.
The cumulative average daily since Jan 2026 is:2.28 million per day.
Last week the U.S. stopped importing crude to begin adjusting to closing Hormuz.
The balance sheet also showed the petroleum reserve released 4 million barrel.
Pretty early, big response in U.S. supply and stores.
Next Tuesday, April 21 is settlement for the May NYMEX WTI futures contract where the futures price will converge with the spot price via Cushing OK physical delivery. Futures are about 91.50 and spot was last reflected by the US ECI price series today at about $105. It will be interesting to see if the settlement price converges toward spot and starts to reflect supply pressures. There can be a lot of technical factors when the gap is this large so there is potentially more noise than signal however.
Exclusive: Can Russia be India’s oil backstop amid US’s Hormuz blockade? What Moscow said
UK finance minister Rachel Reeves blasts Trump administration over economic impact of Iran war
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/iran-war-trump-us-uk-rachel-reeves-uk-imf-oil-energy.html
Sheinbaum Eyes Fracking Plan in Mexico to Lessen Reliance on US Imports
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-15/sheinbaum-eyes-fracking-plan-in-mexico-to-lessen-reliance-on-us-imports
Pentagon prepares for possible military operation in Cuba
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2026/04/15/pentagon-ramps-up-secret-cuba-planning-trump/89623722007/
Pakistan Plans Two Hours of Daily Power Outage to Curb Prices
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-15/pakistan-plans-two-hours-of-daily-power-outage-to-curb-prices
Kremlin says US has rejected its proposal that Russia take Iranian uranium stocks
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/kremlin-says-us-has-rejected-its-proposal-that-russia-take-iranian-uranium-2026-04-15/
China tests deep-sea electro-hydrostatic actuator that can cut undersea cables at a depth of 3,500 meters
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/china-tests-deep-sea-electro-hydrostatic-actuator-that-can-cut-undersea-cables-at-a-depth-of-3-500-meters-state-hails-successful-trial-and-hints-at-deployment-readiness
Bulgarian LNG auction to help replace Russian flows – traders
https://montelnews.com/news/dc3b6c76-8cfe-449c-a591-44c0c4ff4c6a/bulgarian-lng-auction-to-help-replace-russian-flows-traders
Pete Hegseth quotes fake Pulp Fiction Bible verse during Pentagon sermon
https://www.9news.com.au/world/pete-hegseth-pulp-fiction-bible-verse-pentagon-sermon-usa-politics-news/1ffd64d4-628f-49ec-be6f-51e32c83bfea
Trump Sued for Firing Most of the Black Officials in Government
https://newrepublic.com/post/209131/trump-sued-firing-black-officials-government
7 Democrats Vote to Kill Bill Blocking Arms Sales to Israel
https://newrepublic.com/post/209101/list-democrats-vote-against-bernie-sanders-bill-block-arms-sales-israel
48% of Americans say Trump is suffering modest or significant cognitive decline
https://today.yougov.com/en-us/articles/54538-48-percent-americans-say-donald-trump-suffering-cognitive-decline-april-10-13-2026-economist-yougov-poll
U.S. Catholic Bishops Condemn Republicans’ Absurd “Just War” Theory
https://newrepublic.com/post/209106/us-catholic-bishops-republicans-vance-trump-pope-just-war
Israeli attacks prevent Lebanese from burying their dead in ancestral lands
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-attacks-prevent-lebanese-burying-their-dead-ancestral-lands-2026-04-15/
Thanks to Trump’s Iran War, Big Oil Raking in $30 Million Per Hour in Windfall Profits
https://www.commondreams.org/news/iran-war-windfall-profits
Treasury secretary says US will ramp up economic pain on Iran
https://apnews.com/article/us-iran-war-lebanon-israel-talks-hormuz-15-april-2026-f1b02d16f81d6fdcf68c0ed16d7a719d
“I am certain”: Harvard policy expert warns the true cost of the Iran war to U.S. taxpayers will exceed $1 trillion
https://fortune.com/2026/04/15/how-much-will-iran-war-cost-taxpayers-us-1-trillion-dollars/
Trump says he’s willing to ‘risk’ your rights for his surveillance powers
https://reason.com/2026/04/15/trump-says-hes-willing-to-risk-your-rights-for-his-surveillance-powers/
Serbia agrees to produce combat drones with Israel
https://apnews.com/article/serbia-israel-drones-factory-04e7573ec2c5291494f47e6b734b969f
I’d like to comment on this CNN analysis, which among other rather tenuous assumptions argues that the blockade will choke Iran’s imports. This argument comes from FDD Senior Fellow Miad Maleki, who argues that the blockade is a military twp-by-four.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/16/politics/trump-iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-analysis
Well, in case the Americans didn’t know, Iran is not an island. And the trust Iran places in Pakistan’s role can also be seen on the economic front:
https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/04/12/pakistan-iran-transit-corridor-becomes-operational-with-first-export-shipment
The article argues that Iran has relatively good infrastructure for trade. It also mentions work on a gas pipeline, but apparently Pakistan is not on board with that yet, due to American sanctions. Per the article:
Iran has borders with many countries on the land-side, and especially trade through Pakistan should be no problem. It also provides access to the huge Asian markets. China has a large role too in economic development of these routes, especially if gas really gets scarce/expensive.