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Iran War: TACO Tuesday Strikes Again, Trump Extends Ceasefire

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Tuesday, POTUS Trump unilaterally extended the Iran War ceasefire despite Iran refusing to send a delegation to Islamabad for more negotiations.

Ah well, to make up for it, I’ll include some flagrant western disinformation campaigns, an explanation of how the Trump administration is manipulating energy markets, and a pair of videos arguing for and against the proposition that there is a method to America’s madness.

Let’s get to it.

Threats Exchanged to Start the Day

Trump opened the day with a phone interview with CNBC’s Joe Kernan, talking tough.

Note how Kernan opens the interview with a completely unfounded claim that Iran had agreed to send representatives to Islamabad for a Wednesday meeting with Vice-President J.D. Vance, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff:

Joe Kernan: We now know Tehran has publicly confirmed that it will send representatives to the meeting with Vice President Vance. What do you expect?

Donald Trump: Well, as I said two days ago, when they said they won’t send them, I said they’ll be sending them. They have no choice but to send them.

What I think is that we’re going to end up with a great deal. I think it’s got I think they have no choice. We’ve taken out their navy, we’ve taken out their air force, we’ve taken out their leaders, frankly, which does complicate things in one way. But these leaders are much more rational.

It is regime change, no matter what you want to call it, which is not something I said I was going to do. But I’ve done it indirectly, maybe, but I’ve done it.

And I think we’re in a very strong negotiating position to do what other presidents should have done during a 47 year period.

Trump proceeds to make numerous specious claims (42,000 unarmed Iranian protestors killed in recent months, Iranian missile stocks destroyed, etc) that Kernan never challenges. Then Kernan drops this doozy before getting to the point:

Kernan: I know how much you respect and admire and are concerned with with the Iranian people themselves. And this is, I think, in large degree, one of the reasons you decided to embark on this, on this whole thing.

The deadline for the ceasefire is tomorrow, if it looks like things are progressing, Will you not necessarily extend it to to a definitive amount of time, but will you let it keep going? If there’s progress in the talks?

Trump: Well, I expect to be bombing because I think that’s a better attitude to go in with. But we’re ready to go. I mean, the military is raring to go. They are absolutely incredible.

It’s so infuriating to listen to this bilge. Any American who’s upset at being ruled by this mendacious freak should be just as enraged with our 100% propagandized corporate media that created and enables Trump.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant piled on with economic threats:

As POTUS has made clear, the United States Navy will continue the blockade of Iranian ports. In a matter of days, Kharg Island storage will be full and the fragile Iranian oil wells will be shut in. Constraining Iran’s maritime trade directly targets the regime’s primary revenue lifelines.

The USTreasury will continue to apply maximum pressure through Economic Fury to systematically degrade Tehran’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds.

Any person or vessel facilitating these flows—through covert trade and finance—risks exposure to U.S. sanctions.

We continue to freeze the funds stolen by the corrupt leadership on behalf of the people of Iran.

Your mileage may vary, but my X.com feed featured some interesting responses to Bessant, embiggen to see the Iranian TV response at the bottom:

For those who believe Bessant and Trump that the mighty U.S. blockade is strangling Iran, here’s the Financial Times:

At least 34 tankers with links to Iran have bypassed the US blockade since it began, according to the cargo tracking group Vortexa, including several carrying Iranian oil — despite US President Donald Trump declaring the barricade a “tremendous success”.

A look at a map is helpful to better understand how porous the blockade is:

Iran’s Sass Game Remains Strong

For their part, Iranian spokespeople started the day with its representatives taking a firm line and issuing stern (and frankly terrifying) warnings:

Video showing Iranians celebrating, yes, celebrating, the end of the ceasefire was circulating widely:

Then it was reported that Vice-President J.D. Vance would not be traveling to Islamabad.

Amusingly, ultimate D.C. shill site Axios had reported that both the Iranian and American delegations were confirmed for the meetings. They’re always down to post what they’re told to post, I guess.

Things Get Real and TACOs Are Served

In response Mr. Market started bidding up the price of oil.

Then, Iran left Team Trump standing at the altar, Tasnim News via Iran Wire:

Tasnim News Agency, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reported on the evening of Monday, April 20, that Iran’s decision not to attend the negotiations in Pakistan remains unchanged, and that the Islamic Republic has no intention of participating in what it called an “American theater.”

Tasnim wrote that its correspondent’s information indicates that, despite Donald Trump’s claims that JD Vance and other members of the American negotiating team are on their way to Pakistan, there has been no change in Iran’s decision to abstain from the talks as of the time of publication. The agency added that Tehran’s participation is contingent upon the fulfillment of certain preconditions.

According to information cited by Tasnim, one of the primary obstacles to the talks is the issue of the naval blockade, a matter which, according to the report, has been communicated to the American side via the Pakistani intermediary, who stated that this issue has been shared with Trump.

At the same time, the report emphasized that, in addition to the naval blockade, a series of other demands have been raised by the United States, which, from Tehran’s perspective, do not provide a clear outlook for the negotiations.

Tasnim further wrote that until “some fundamental obstacles are removed, and a clear horizon is formed for reaching an agreement acceptable to Iran,” Tehran has no intention of participating in an “American theater.”

And that set the table for TACOs.

If It’s Tuesday, That Must Be a TACO

Maybe Susie Wiles let this little graphic slip into Trump’s infobubble or something:

Or maybe someone read this Pentagon report to him, via NBC:

A Pentagon intelligence agency assessment says Iran still has significant military capabilities.

U.S. intelligence is at odds with public declarations by President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who said the Iranian Air Force was “wiped out” and the Navy is “at the bottom of the sea.”

Because it was an epic climb down for Mr. Big, so much so that Luke Broadwater of the NY Times called it “a starkly different tone from the American president”:

Iranian Security Analyst Mahdi Mohammadi, who is to my understanding close to Iranian Parliamentary Speaker MB Ghalibaf
tweeted in response (translated by Grok):

Trump’s ceasefire extension means nothing. The losing side cannot dictate terms. The continuation of the siege is no different from bombardment and must be met with a military response. Moreover, Trump’s ceasefire extension is certainly a ploy to buy time for a surprise strike. The time for Iran to take the initiative has come.

CNN had some insights into Trump’s motivations (via Simplicius):

His ceasefire deadline was nearing its end, and Air Force Two was sitting on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews ahead of Vice President JD Vance’s scheduled departure to Pakistan for the next round of talks. But the administration was dealing with a conundrum: virtual silence from the Iranians.

In the days prior, the US had sent Iran a list of broad deal points that they wanted the Iranians to agree to in advance of the next round of talks. But days had gone by without the US getting a response…

Where Trump’s unilateral ceasefire declaration leaves the potential for kino, I’ll cite Will Schryver who lays out some possibilities:

And I’ll quote Simplicius who argues the war won’t go on because the U.S. can’t.

First he cites an alarming CNN report about the dramatic depletion of U.S. missile stocks, then he says:

As you can see, in only a couple short weeks the US fired thousands of its rarest and most valuable munitions, which are only produced at a trickle of a few dozen per year each.
…
What can we ourselves conclude…?

That it can’t possibly be Iran that “folds first” because, at a production rate of only a few dozen per year, the US simply cannot afford to prolong the conflict much longer, lest it run its magazines completely dry and becomes exposed for all time. This is why we can only assume that Trump’s gasbag lecturing is nothing but inert bluffery meant to frighten an increasingly unvexed Iran into making concessions.

But before we get complacent, Patricia Marins warns Trump and Netanyahu still have cards to play and very few limits:

Four more cards remain in his hand: occupying ports, a new attempt to involve Gulf countries, opening Hormuz using destroyers, and, finally, tactical nuclear missiles.

Any of these options, seizing ports, freeing the strait with destroyers, or pulling in the Gulf countries, must be carefully evaluated because they all risk making the problem bigger instead of solving it.

In this situation, there will be many casualties, which could have two effects on American public opinion: either strong public condemnation of Trump’s actions or a national wave of support for the war, fueling a desire for revenge. It’s a very real risk.
…
That leaves the nuclear card. Although it is not publicly discussed yet, Iranian nuclear facilities have already been bombed multiple times, including one case where a projectile landed just 350 meters from a reactor. This makes me believe the coalition is already accepting the risk of a nuclear incident in Iran.

We are therefore slowly moving toward tactical nuclear missiles, which are infinitely less dangerous than reactor explosions. And I’m very serious when I say this: Netanyahu would have both the rhetoric and the means to use this option if needed…

(Trump) and Netanyahu are political masters, yet their impulsivity prevents them from considering the long-term consequences of military actions. Because of this, they are ready to play any card at their disposal, a move that would destabilize the global economy and impact investments worldwide.

Enough scary speculation, let’s get to the unreality that actually already happened.

Trump Thrashes Around on Truth Social

The press response clearly got to Trump as he followed up with another Truth rant blasting the Wall Street Journal for having “lost its way.”

An IDIOT on The Wall Street Journal’s Editorial Board, named Elliot Kaufman, just wrote an Op Ed entitled, “The Iranians Take Trump for a Sucker.” Really? For 47 years, they have killed our people, and many others, and taken advantage of every President, except me — And what did I give to them, a Country in tatters!
…
I guess Rupert Murdoch told him to write it this way, because The Wall Street Journal has lost its way, no longer required reading, just another failing political “RAG!”

Now let’s follow another Trump Truth Social post into the wild world of disinformation.

After Trump Truth’d about 8 women allegedly set to be executed by the IRGC, people had questions (read the lower of the two tweets first):

All of this made me think of this Sam Biddle report from The Intercept that I meant to include in yesterday’s round up:

Al-Fassel and Pishtaz News look like typical news websites. They have neatly designed homepages and active social media accounts, where they share reporting and videos on Middle Eastern geopolitics in Arabic and Farsi, respectively, as well as English. Al-Fassel’s X account states the publication’s mission is “to investigate events of great significance that are often overlooked by local and regional media, and to shed light on them.” The Pishtaz News X account says it was established “to investigate and expand upon important news that local and regional media often overlook.”

These overlooked stories share the same ideological slant and editorial voice: that of the White House. Al-Fassel’s YouTube account, for instance, has racked up millions of views on Arabic-language videos praising the Trump administration’s Gaza policy and exhorting Hamas to cease “taking orders from the Iranian regime” and release Israeli prisoners. On Pishtaz News, a poll on the homepage recently asked: “[H]ow would you describe your belief about the Supreme Leader’s current health status and whereabouts?” Possible answers range from “In good health but hiding” to “Disfigured” or “Dead.” The excellence of Saudi and Emirati leadership, both close military partners of the U.S., is a recurring theme.

There’s a reason this coverage echoes American foreign policy talking points. Al-Fassel and Pishtaz News are, in fact, part of network of websites and social media accounts purporting to be legitimate Middle Eastern news outlets that are in fact propaganda mills funded by the United States government, The Intercept has found.

Disclosed only at the bottom of both sites behind an “About” link that is easily missed by casual readers, the outlets note that they are “a product of an international media organization publicly funded from the budget of the United States Government.” The government affiliation remains undisclosed on social media platforms including Instagram, despite a platform policy requiring the labeling of state-backed media outlet to prevent the unwitting consumption of government propaganda.

Nothing better to wash off the disinfo than some bracing reality.

Supply Shocks Spreading

Oil Price reports:

The Middle East war has removed around 500 million barrels of oil supply (~$50B), with disruptions driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Global supply and inventories are tightening sharply, with production down by over 10 million bpd and stockpiles rapidly declining.

Even if Hormuz reopens, recovery could take months to years, keeping oil markets volatile and prices under upward pressure.

The NYT reports from Asia:

Many countries across the Asia-Pacific are experiencing sudden jolts of disruption that they are struggling to manage, with some comparing the crisis’s breakdowns and scope to the Covid pandemic.

Even if there is a peace deal soon, the future of this industrious region that has driven global economic growth for decades will likely include months of canceled flights, surging food prices, factory pauses, delayed shipments and empty shelves for products long considered quick and easy to buy worldwide: plastic bags, instant noodles, vaccines, syringes, lipstick, microchips and sportswear.

Collectively, according to many officials and experts, if the war’s strangling of commercial traffic through the Middle East lasts for even a few more weeks, and uncertainty lingers, shortages could push several countries into convulsions of unrest, followed by recession.

If that’s not bad enough, condom prices are expected to surge by 30%:

Karex CEO Goh Miah Kiat said the price of key raw materials, including aluminum, foil and silicone oil, has increased 25% to 30% since the start of the war nearly two months ago.

The Malaysia-based firm produces more than five billion condoms annually and is seeing demand outpace supply as shipping delays leave customers without product.

Karex says more inventory is stuck on vessels than reaching its destination, with some shipments taking up to two months to arrive to the U.S. and Europe, while developing countries already facing shortages are also seeing a delay in shipments.

The company is a major supplier for brands like Durex and Trojan, as well as public health systems such as the U.K.’s National Health Service and aid programs run by the United Nations.

Regional Roundup

Now let’s round up some other quick news hits before we get to the think pieces:

So There’s Like Totally a Master Plan

I’ll set this up with some tweets about the mysterious spate of oil refinery fires getting social media attention (anyone know if this is an unusual number of such fires over a two month period?).

The above video by Richard Medhurst has gotten almost 200K views in 11 days. He makes a bold claim and backs it up with lots of information and a well-formulated argument:

Richard Medhurst: In the background, the United States have quietly been carrying out an armed robbery of the world’s oil and gas supply. In the last 3 months alone, the US have hit Russian tankers, refineries, crippled China’s oil supply, captured the world’s largest oil fields, and kidnapped and assassinated two heads of state. We are witnessing the transition of the United States from an empire into a pirate state and the birth of what I call the pro gas dollar or the LNG dollar.

I trust Medhurst’s reporting, but like Brian Berletic, he is so wary of the evil empire that sometimes he may see intention where there is only floundering.

Which is what Greg Stoker and Elina Xenophontos argue in the video below.

Greg Stoker: The US government is playing 1D checkers, not 3D transdimensional chess. There is no master plan at play to maintain the petro dollar via implementing a global energy blockade and strangling China etc.
There is no plan which is why the US is sending another 10,000 service members to the region as a third carrier strike group attached to the USS George HW Bush is sailing around Africa…

There is this idea floating around that the US given its intervention in Venezuela, the blockade of Cuba, the interception of Russian tankers in international waters in the Arctic regions, the closing of the Straight of Hormuz, strikes on Gulf infrastructure during this war is all part of some imperial master plan to effectuate a global oil blockade in order to preserve the petro dollar or morph it into like the pro LNG dollar.

Elina Xenophontos: It’s very important to break it down for people to understand where there’s merit and where there’s no merit to it because the reality of the situation is the United States doesn’t have a grand strategy like this. They have certain objectives but we should distinguish between their so-called objectives and the material reality of what’s actually occurring.

Also there’s the whole issue of the “petrodollar” being a bit of a myth.

As Yves wrote a few years back:

Even though the dollar is set to lose its dominant position due to the US no longer being the top economic dog (and the US giving other countries ample incentive to move away via our abuse of the power of controlling the dollar payments system), monetary regime changes take a very long time to play out. It took forty years, including two world wars and a global depression, to dethrone pound sterling. And now we have more significant frictions to changing monetary regimes in the form of the amount of computer coding behind current systems, and the depth and complexity of dollar financial instruments and investment vehicles.

I should also mention that Alon Mizrahi has managed to reclaim his Substack account after it was hacked and hijacked earlier this week.

I’ll close with this video featuring Luke Groman explaining Scott Bessant’s oil market manipulations and the risk these ploys incur of destroying faith in the U.S. commodities markets as a means of price discovery.

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185 comments

    1. Another Anon

      I recall reading that in the early 70’s, that Robert Heinlein said that aircraft carriers will become as useful as Spanish Galleons. He further stated that at least the Galleons were prettier.

  3. Christopher Fay

    Also if the Iranians are foregoing $500 million per day the Americans are consuming from a baseline of $2 billion per day but have blotto-wared up several times. The question is what is the reality factor to use for US spending: $2 billion x 2 to $2 billion x 10 per day yet still we are short of munitions and food for the troops. I haven’t heard a single “I support the troops,” or a “thank you for your service.”

    1. ilsm

      Projection.

      Economic damage to Iran is little more than that from the sanction regime, while economic damage to GCC is severe.

    2. ISL

      On the Cradle yesterday (I forgot which) it was reported that Iranian oil exports have remained high because the blockade is a leaky sieve.

      All the US $ are needed for the contractors (not the troops). Thus has it been for decades. Look at the state of affairs of the VA! Salute the troops in congress and dump them on the street when they are dismembered. United States of Amnesia has an appropriate leader again!

      1. Piotr Berman

        All the US $ are needed for the contractors (not the troops). ???

        Contractors for maritime interceptions and boarding? Contractors do not materialize when we imagine them. Perhaps it was snark…

    3. Hickory

      The troops are obeying illegitimate orders. There has been no Congressional declaration of war. The fighting they’re doing is not serving this country; it is weakening it and causing vast unnecessary misery, especially in Iran but around the world.

      I respect the solder who chooses to follow non-corrupt leadership that act in service of the people. Obeying corrupt leaders while pretending to serve the country is not honorable. And yes, since we’re not free people, we have a ruling class that expects soldiers to follow orders no matter what. If we’re ever going to free ourselves and create a healthy nation, we need to stop pretending that it’s ok to obey orders from corrupt leaders.

      2. dearieme

        “There has been no Congressional declaration of war.”

        There never is, deah boy – not in my lifetime.

        After all, it would require Congress to accept its responsibilities.

      3. ilsm

        Trump needs an authorization for use of military force to keep this charade going past 1 May.

        Write your members of congress and senators.

        1. Oregon Lawhobbit

          But … if he stops and starts again,* wouldn’t that be a whole new “operation?”

          *and again and again until the US has no bullets and bombs left.

  5. The Rev Kev

    My guess is that Trump extended that ceasefire simply because he had no idea what else to do. Nothing is working with Iran. He does not fare well with countries that tell him ‘No!’ whether it be Russia or China or now Iran. Bully-boy tactics don’t work with them which leaves him blustering on his Truth Social account. What else is he going to do? Threaten to sue them like he has done so many thousands of times in the past with others? And he keeps on boxing himself in. Larry Johnstone was saying in a short video that during the last negotiations there was the making of a deal. But when Trump heard what was on offer, he blew it up.

    1. ilsm

      TACO!

      Climbing down from threatening to further deplete US’ stock of unreliable wunderwaffen is not ceasefire.

      Opening the blockade and pulling IDF out of Lebanon might be a start to ceasefire.

      25th Amendment!

    2. ISL

      Yes, yes, yes, but… Iran’s real weapon continues to do damage – the loss of oil from markets – so this is more like standing dumbfounded in the corner while your opponent keeps hitting you. Plus, given that Iran has access to rare earths and the US does not, Iran gets stronger every day, the US weaker (both economically, politically, militarily, heck even informationally – trump jesus versus lego forces). The trend in the correlation of forces are not in the US favor.

    3. jonboinAR

      I find myself agreeing with you and the excerpted remarks above that Trump really has no grand strategy, that he was somehow duped into thinking that he could achieve a quick, dramatic victory as he did with Venezuela and now is reduced to playing it by ear, something that could prove deadly for all of us if we’re not really fortunate.

    4. John k

      I’m still worried about Friday after markets close. Carrier arrives I think by then or very soon. Doesn’t seem as if us can maintain those boats there for long without Doing something, plus markets might wake up at any moment.
      Maybe better informed by never paying attention to what trump says.

  6. Amateur Socialist

    Reviewing the overnight taco, I remembered his unwillingness to accept the declining ratings for his stupid pretend business game show. He didn’t believe the show’s viewership was declining, and complained publicly about the ratings after The Governator took over. So there is form there. He believes this war is popular just like he thought he was on the TV. With no negotiations underway or likely the most reasonable expectation is further escalation.

    I have been surprised how the coverage I see online seems to be less about how to resolve the war and more about how to resolve the game show dude who is (at best!) way over his head. Has anybody else noticed this trend?

    1. boots

      That may be so online. My observations offline are only of embarrassment and mockery, not anti-war sentiment:

      Hillbilly Days last weekend in Pikeville KY, the most white and most gen-x event you will ever see, had no Trump or Maga hats, flags, booths, or magnetic door signs for the first time in 10 years. There are still supporters of the project or the game show dude, buut they’ve become much more embarrassed.

      At the hospital where I work, where teenagers are at all times oblivious to the basics of the current events we think about here (not knowing, for example, we’re at war with Russia or Iran), in which political speech is always absent, a teenage girl yesterday entertined her peers with her stand-up act mocking Trump’s mannerisms and verbal ejaculations:

      “Iran? Iran is terriffic. We’ve never seen anything like it. Get the oil. Ceasefire. My ballroom is ahead of schedule and under budget. I think we’re close to a deal.” (in spot-on mocking Trump voice with facial quirks and gestures).

      Also there’s a fierce fight in Kentucky against rezoning to industrial under NDAs and sneaky hyperscaler data center deals that’s threatening to end the careers of magistrates and judge executives (Kentucky’s county officials) in Mason, Kenton, and other counties. The concerns are usually noise, protection of important farmland, and concerns about related infrastructure changing the character of the area, along with veiled allegations of corruption and direct complaints of shady dealing, but nothing war or surveillance dystopia-related. Only one hyperscale data center is currently under construction (near Louisville). There’s also one big-news contract, but no broken ground (in Paducah, at the old DOE nuclear enrichment site Peter Thiel’s company has a contract to fire up again).

      No refinery fires in Kentucky yet.

      1. motorslug

        The big test will be the next Daytona event, probably the coke 400 in August. The 500 was before all this started. Did douchey ever even go to Indy?
        Those races are mainly for idle, rich, white rednecks that can afford to splurge and display like peacocks.

        BTW…go Rep Massie!

  7. farmboy

    Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦
    @jurgen_nauditt
    Trump, the biggest failed strategist in US history, has plunged America into a strategic catastrophe.

    During his self-proclaimed “victory parade” against Iran, he squandered at least 45% of the US’s precision-guided missile arsenal in just seven weeks—including half of all THAAD missiles and nearly 50% of Patriot interceptor missiles. This isn’t some fake news blog reporting this, but CNN, citing a CSIS analysis and internal Pentagon data. The result? An “imminent risk” of munitions depletion should a real conflict erupt in the coming years—for example, with China. Trump has ruined the US defense capability for years to come.
    And for what?

    For nothing.

    No regime change in Iran. No destroyed nuclear program. No strategic breakthrough. Just a shaky ceasefire that gives the mullahs time to rearm while America stands naked. Trump, the great “Art of the Deal” master, has once again only produced hot air – and in doing so, burned through the most expensive and scarce weapons in the USA like a pubescent boy with fireworks.

    1. The Rev Kev

      On the other hand, he and his friends have made billions of dollars in total with well times bets on what the White House has been about to say. There is that.

      Mind if I ask what the situation is with fertilizers in your neck of the woods? Can farmers access all that they need for their crops? Have you heard any stories about what is in the pipeline?

      1. farmboy

        And to think Martha Stewart was convicted of insder trading. We could see a decade of criminal trials.
        Seems ferilizers are readily available yet, but irrigation season is just starting, lots get spread through the growing season, Top dressing and grain spring planting are progressing, but suppliers are raising prices on booked amounts so still no honor among thieves.
        https://www.fb.org/market-intel/farm-bureau-survey-reveals-real-impact-of-fertilizer-availability-and-price

        1. The Rev Kev

          Thanks for that report. I was wondering if fertilizer shortages have made themselves felt yet.

          1. ael

            I talked to a farmer here on the Canadian prairies. He has no immediate issue with fertilizer as he bought most of what he needs in December. He says that most farmers around here also buy in the winter, so there won’t be many shortages till next year.

      2. boots

        I know you didn’t ask me, but to pile on:

        I live in cattle and horse country, but the news from West Kentucky is repetitively about the drought rather than about fertilizer at the moment. It’s especially severe in the Jackson Purchase. West Kentucky is Mississippi River Valley corn and soybeans country (long ago was tobacco and cotton country), not wheat country.

        Last I heard, China isn’t buying our soybeans. That was all over our news. I don’t know if they’re buying from us again, but the decision to plant soy or fertilizer-dependent corn has been made, and I don’t know what the breakdown of choices in this matter are.

        We don’t do the Haber-Bosch process despite our natural gas production, so fertilizer will have to come from somewhere as the season progresses. It may be there’s enough at a workable price now, but later this summer claiming crop insurance may look better than paying whatever fertilizer costs.

        40% of corn goes to ethanol gasoline additive, the rest to animal feed and ultra-processed foods, so that’s what a crop failure will effect.

        Remember this is all layered on top of a punishing drought and we’re in an el Nino year. Where I live is classified moderate drought, Jackson Purchase is classified severe. Instead of our usual spring floods (which drown bottomlands and sweep away houses), we’ve had I think one proper rainstorm this spring, and it dropped less than an inch.

    2. TomDority

      Well, at least jobs. Remember Biden saying that re-building weapons stocks mean good paying jobs and other iterations by this current admin.
      Think of all the jobs…if they still exist..
      “tactical nuclear missiles, which are infinitely less dangerous than reactor explosions” ?
      Patricia Marins: I might need some clarification as my intellectual/logic capacity is limited

      1. funemployed

        A nuclear bomb makes a big explosion and releases a limited amount of radioactive material. A nuclear power plant has many orders of magnitude more radioactive material and in an uncontained meltdown scenario becomes like a giant fountain of radiation that can spread very far and make very large areas uninhabitable for a very long time.

      2. vidimi

        think Chernobyl vs Hiroshima. Chernobyl remains uninhabitable whereas Hiroshima is a thriving city

        1. cfraenkel

          On the other hand, there are thousands of km of empty ocean downwind of Hiroshima…. downwind of Iran is Pakistan, India, Bangladesh…

        2. Oregon Lawhobbit

          But why think only one bomb? That’s not going to destroy Iranian civilization very well…

    3. TimH

      he squandered at least 45% of the US’s precision-guided missile arsenal in just seven weeks

      He also showed the world that the weaponry isn’t competitive any more. The curtain has been pulled back, and the world has seen what’s behind it.

      I’d suggest that Iran could join China and Russia as the world’s armament export leaders, should they choose.

    4. Samuel Conner

      I’m old enough to remember when major US news outlets could report that US war planning envisaged simultaneously winning, or at worst “win/hold, win” in, two major regional conflicts.

      How the mighty have fallen.

    5. hereweare

      “should a real conflict erupt”
      What is unreal about the war on Iran (the war, not the propaganda surrounding it)?

      1. Christopher Mann

        They’ve mainly only killed children and unarmed civilians, so no real soldiers killed, perhaps?

  8. upstater

    The TACO AI bot trade is described in John Auther’s newsletter today. It shouldn’t be surprising that markets are manipulated or become predictable in such a manner. The arsonist is running around starting fires that he believes he can control. Until the conflagration becomes an all-consuming firestorm.

    The bot raised no concern about retesting lows. Instead, after a long exegesis, it concluded:

    The big insight
    This isn’t random — it creates a tradable rotation pattern:
    • “Fear trades” → energy, defense
    • “Relief trades” → tech, consumer, growth
    That’s why some traders actually anticipate these swings rather than just react.

    It’s possible that the automated buy-the-dip behavior can be attributed to a newfound reliance on AI. It’s certainly true that the tendency to buy and never rethink the dip has become almost an automated reflex, when for generations the conditioned reactions were different.

    1. Timmy

      Up to the end of 2025, the past 15 years/60 quarters in the US offered a grand total of (by my count) 6 quarters with a negative GDP print. That includes the pandemic. There is no business cycle anymore, only persistent growth. The “Fed put” is fully now internalized in investment behavior.. Buy the dip behavior was already in place before AI started reinforcing it – its simply a reflex now, without cognition.

      If only this pesky war and critical materials global supply chain crisis would get out of the way….

  9. ciroc

    If Israel were to launch a nuclear missile, it would truly become a pariah state. Iran may be trying to provoke that response.

    1. TimH

      Israel is already a pariah state. Also, as has been raised here a few time, Russia has said that they would respond against Israel if they go nuke. Finally, Israel is tiny with few large cities that could be destroyed by Iran. Bibi, however, doesn’t appear to care much outside staying out of jail, so who knows?

      3. S Domain

        Russia has not issued any official statement to the effect that they would retaliate militarily (conventional or nuclear) against Israel were Israeli nuclear weapons to be used against Iran.

        There are several such statements regarding attacks on, or in the area adjacent to, the Bushehr NPP such as:

        Comment by Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova following a report on new shelling of Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant

        Foreign Ministry statement on the situation in the Middle East

        But none of these support your assertion. Please provide a link to an official government statement from The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation or similar official source to back up your claim, or stop making stuff up.

        1. motorslug

          Pakistan, however, said several years ago they will nuke zionazis should they attempt to strike against any Muslim nation

          1. S Domain

            Again, unless you can provide a link to an official statement from the Pakistani government to this effect, this oft-repeated claim is unverifiable. As far as I can determine, Pakistan has never made such an official statement.

            The source of this belief appears to be a statement made by IRGC General Mohsen Rezaei on Iranian state television, as reported by Defence Security Asia amongst others. However, per the aforementioned link:

            … Islamabad has made no official statements indicating Israel is within its nuclear target list,

            Given the catastrophic consequences of the use of nuclear weapons by Israel or the United States in their war against Iran, it is of utmost importance that any and all statements regarding potential nuclear retaliation are treated with the seriousness they deserve. This begins by making sure that such pronouncements originate from the government in question, and not some third party.

      4. SiberiaLAMoscow

        Is there any proof that Putin (and only he matters in Russia) or any major Russian government official (Medvedev is just a clown) actually said that Russia would respond if Israel nuked Iran? And respond how? By expressing the Kremlin’s concern?

        Even if someone major did say that, it has to be remembered that all of Putin’s red lines (including the bombing of the components of the Russian nuclear triad) have been crossed without any response from him. Putin’s behavior during the Ukraine War has convinced the West that he will not respond to anything in general and especially by using nukes.

        This is very dangerous because it forces the West to continue and escalate the war to the point at which Putin might have to use nukes in response to Europe, emboldened by Putin’s inaction, getting directly involved in the war.

        Btw, the mood emerging in Russia’s patriotic circles is that its direct war with the West is highly likely or even inevitable.

        There is also this: “Israel is practically a Russian speaking country”. Putin publicly said that. You think a person with this perception of Israel is likely to hit it with conventional, let alone nuclear, weapons?

        I am ethnic Russian living in Moscow. Putin is indeed supported by most Russians. While being unhappy with many of his policies, most Russians see him as the lesser evil.

        Moreover, most Russians’ main fear is what will happen after him. Among other things, Russia doesn’t have an established (respected by the elite) mechanism of transferring power, it is hard to imagine that Putin’s successor will be able to manage the power clans and the other groups as well as Putin does and most of the Russian elite wants to go back to 2013 as far as Russia’s relationship with the West is concerned. Worshipping the West has been the Russian elite’s religion for 325 years and that is why the Soviet Union was killed by its own elite.

        As to the Ukraine War (it is essentially a civil war), most Russians (especially men) are unhappy with how it is being waged by Putin who is a total dove compared to most Russians. Yes, Russia’s losses are smaller than those of Ukraine whose male population is experiencing a holocaust but they are big (two people in my circles have been killed there) while even just Donbass has not been taken more than 4 years later. War fatigue is growing.

        Russians tsars can do anything except for losing wars and the Ukrainian War has no diplomatic solution craved by Putin.

        As to Ukraine, half of my ancestors were from there and moved to Siberia at the end of the 19th century. They were and considered themselves ethnic Russians. They heard the word “Ukraine” for the first time in the 1920s and didn’t know what it meant. That’s all you need to know about Ukraine. A third of my class in Siberia had Ukrainian last names and all of them were and considered themselves ethnic Russians. Another third was the Russian Germans correctly deported from the Volga region during the War. Their identity was more complicated

  10. DD

    My sources are the same as everyone else, but I don’t see why there’s no offramp for kinetic war restarting. The USA just keeps the blockade leaky enough to allow Iran to get most of their ships through, occasionally seizing or sending back a tanker to show dominance. This allows both sides to look strong and keeps the mutually assured destruction from escalating.

    Why can’t Iran and the US mostly hold their fire indefinitely in this situation, or at least until Congress “forces” Trump to withdraw at the end of the 60 day war powers window?

    Can’t Iran do some combination of ship to ship transfers, back channel paper swaps of cargo with other Gulf players, and flagging games, with the US looking the other way to keep things mild? Both sides are claiming to keep the Strait closed. If they can maintain that, they can both claim a win.

    If Iran can ‘sneak’ enough ships through, the US can hold up the majority of traffic and turn around the occasional rust bucket, I see a plausible path to keeping the fighting from restarting in earnest.

    Sure this extended closure is bad for the other gulf states and the global south, but the big players like China, Russia, US, maybe even Turkey and Iran will either do well or not be taking fatal economic damage, while also not permanently destroying potential energy flows and their own economies.

    Relative damage to everyone who can do something major militarily would be minor. If the big dogs go on a diet while everyone else starves, their positions get better not worse.

    Just some pre-sunrise speculation from my couch.

    1. Curious

      We’re gonna find out how long the world can go without the 13 million barrels per day that is currently shut in the Gulf. Since we are over supplied going into the crisis, and China has some large reserves it could take longer than most expected here on NC.

      However, in the long run, there isn’t an offset for that oil other than demand destruction. If things settle into a status quo stalemate economies around the world are gonna take a hit to GDP and Third World countries may see some of their poor citizens really hurt.

      However, if the strait is not a decisive weapon, then Iran could be signed up for a slow, long attempted strangulation.

      1. Jason Boxman

        What I keep forgetting about is the damage to the oil fields themselves, as capacity is “shut in”. Somewhere, someone that posts a lot mentioned the Trump blockade if successful will damage Iranian oil fields as well, if they’re actually capable of that kind of strategy in the Trump administration, which is questionable.

        1. Polar Socialist

          I’m hearing from Iran that there has been a lots of rain and even thunderstorms ever since Iran forced the GCC to shut down their production facilities. To the extent that people are wondering if there’s some cause and effect going on.

          In any case, Tehran’s water situation seem to be improving by the day.

          1. jsn

            Just a macro observation.

            Lots of new methane has been entering the atmosphere since the Ukraine war started, not necessarily connected to that, but permafrost melt began accelerating at the same time.

            Now we’re seeing both more water suspended in a hotter atmosphere and less rain. Cuts in methane released in GCC leads to rain in Iran.

            Methane induced, humid heat retards precipitation?

            1. Darthbobber

              And nothing burns through hydrocarbons like a tech heavy war fought Russian or American style.

    2. jefemt

      My couch-thinking wonders where Israel is in the calculus? And whenever I inject Israel, I have to throw in a little duality Islamic act/react. With more than a dash of Sectarian spice.

      The mid-east excursion is a multi-layered S L I C C if one has cards, a deck, bets to place, markets to manipulate, brown- people- bad folks to hurt, and a bottomless MIC to feed and steward.
      And we will finally get to see how a tactical nuke works, all analyzed and parsed by the brilliant germanic-precision Israeli and US military industries.
      Gives the sick f*cks in power and money a stiffie just thinking about it all…

      And let’s not forget ‘crisis’: rationing, emergency powers, delayed elections. Who is gonna get the jet fuel? The US military? Taylor Swift, Melania, or Kristi Noem?

      The condom shortage 9 -month- demographic -rolling- Tsunami must make international Broligarchs delight that there will in fact be a workforce to flog. Just gotta hang in there for a few years.
      Highly motivated pro-USA workforce….. my cynicism and sarcasm are sooooo tiresomely toxic
      Sign of the times

      I just thought of a sideline funding source for N C….. a bumper sticker that reads

      Think For Yourself ! ( with an understated nc tm and web-site hash taggy contact micro font at bottom.

      Thanks again for all the information.

      1. The Rev Kev

        You can’t have a bumper sticker saying “Think For Yourself!” Next thing you know, you will have one saying “Do Your Own Research!” – which got a lot of frowny-faces back in 2020.

      2. lyman alpha blob

        Musical interlude for the metalheads, from an appropriately named band considering current circumstances – Nuclear Assault with Brainwashed

        Lyrical sampler for those who can’t translate the growling and shrieking –

        “Newspapers, what do they say?
        Not much, I think, when they want schoolkids to pray
        Getting the facts from some daily news
        You hate the system but adhere to its views
        Blaming the dead because they can’t complain
        Shielding officials, holding them above the blame
        You’d better wake up and see what’s plain to see
        Or end up a willing part of the machine

        [Chorus]
        Why don’t you think for yourself?
        Live in this self-made hell”

        Not bad for a bunch of 20-something 80s headbangers.

    3. mzza

      also, as many analysts from the region mention (thinking of The Cradle here), the kinetic war has never stopped in Lebanon and Gaza when Israel is taken into consideration, with real risk in other Israel-neighboring countries. If Iran is taken at its word that war needs to end for all the Axis countries — which I personally hope is true — then there is no indefinite. At some point the ongoing civilian deaths and settler expansion need to be addressed. Or the pretense of a new regional security alliance is proved to be fantasy.

      Also: the blockade and sanctions ARE ongoing acts of war, however indefinite.

      1. DD

        The golden goose is killed by blowing up or degrading the oil fields through extended shutdowns. That’s existential.

        In the great game, Lebanon, Israel, Gaza et al are seen as merely unfortunate (and also the status quo for most of my adult life).

    5. ilsm

      I suspect the prediction market for passing an AUMF by 30 April is close to 95% Trump gets open ended AUMF.

      MIC can’t be seen as selling junk wunderwaffen.

      Write to congress!

    6. Joe Martin

      The problem is how much the price of oil will increase. But I’m surprised the price isn’t higher now – so what do know?

  11. lyman alpha blob

    If there’s any “master plan”, it’s to keep China down by trying to break up their plans for the Belt and Road Initiative. There was the explicit “pivot to Asia” announced at about the same time China announced the BRI. Shortly after that, there was the coup in Ukraine to prevent them from trading with Russia, followed by eight years of provocation leading to a Russian invasion, which gave the excuse to blow the Nordstream pipeline. The fact that this allowed the US to then force overpriced LNG on the European poodle dogs was just a side bonus, and IMO not part of a master plan to control energy flows. And now Iran. Trump may be doing it for Bibi, and may not even be aware of the BRI, but the neocons in the background know that damaging Iran also damages the BRI.

    A handy map – do note which large country bent on world domination is not included: https://merics.org/en/tracker/mapping-belt-and-road-initiative-where-we-stand

    More on the countries included: https://merics.org/en/tracker/mapping-belt-and-road-initiative-where-we-stand

    China wants to peaceably trade with all these nations, and the US is having a fit. China recently developed a state of the art port in Peru which the US is already eyeing – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-11/trump-administration-warns-peru-that-a-chinese-port-is-costing-its-sovereignty

    Turns out it’s just the West that’s allowed to be good at capitalism according to the ‘rules based order’. Anybody else tries, and the US throws and tantrum and breaks all their toys. We can’t have China galloping around the Grand Chess[or checker]board like Seabiscuit, now can we?

    1. JP

      There has never been a master plan. There is no real intelligence apparatus that knows what’s really happening. The human Psyche is much the same from top to bottom. It has always been persons in a position of influence/leadership playing two dimensional in a four dimensional world.

      There is no prediction of the future only guessing. Everything is a moving target. One just uses all available resources to try and place that lucky bet. Don’t overreach don’t subscribe to Kalshi.

    2. pjay

      Neutralizing Iran has long been part of the US geopolitical “master plan.” Berletic is constantly recommending that we read ‘Which Path to Persia?’ I recommend this too. It is indeed a “master plan,” and very prescient. But Berletic understates the degree to which there are different and sometimes divergent elite interests at work, and related elite disagreements over how to deal with the “Iran problem”. The Obama administration represented perhaps the most incremental approach. That seems to have been rejected. Any remaining weak-tea “realism” has been beaten down by the neocons — who, by the way, were the authors of that Brookings piece that Berletic wants us to read. Caitlin Johnstone had a relevant post on this subject yesterday: “Biden Official: Biden Was Preparing To Bomb Iran If Re-Elected”

      https://caitlinjohnstone.com.au/2026/04/21/biden-official-biden-was-preparing-to-bomb-iran-if-re-elected/

      Of course taking out Iran is part of a “master plan.” But whose? There is the plan for Greater Israel by that country and its neocon allies in the US, which requires the balkanization of Iran. There is the “plan” of our own globalists who are concerned about China and Russia; this is the plan to which you refer. It involves severing the growing economic ties between these two nations and the rest of the world, and it certainly includes an attempt at controlling global energy sources and key “choke points.” Medhurst is on to something here. But like Berletic, he understates the degree to which there are intra-elite conflicts of interest over possible strategy and outcomes.

      And none of this means that these “plans” will work! In fact current events suggest how they might lead to catastrophic failure for the parties involved. But understanding what is going on requires that we recognize these plans, and their planners.

      1. Michael Fiorillo

        I think Medhurst goes too far when talking about US intentions to bring down the Gulf States as petro-competitors. As the speakers in the other video correctly point out, the US (as well as the Trump family) is financially dependent on those States, so it would take a whole ‘notha level of insanity. Otherwise, what he says and pretty ably documents points to long-term NatSec planning/appetites and provides a more plausible explanation than most.

        Just because they’re greedy, corrupt, short-sighted and incompetent doesn’t mean it’s not their motivation and objective.

    3. Lee

      Re China:

      I would take seriously the point that Gorman makes in the Mises Institute video that China hasn’t even begun to play hardball with the U.S. For example how many millions of U.S. citizens would die if China stopped supplying us with pharmaceuticals? As one whose continued verticality at an advanced age would be to a significant degree ascribed to “better living through chemistry” this caught my attention.

  12. Carolinian

    I have no idea who Patricia Marins is but I call bs on

    We are therefore slowly moving toward tactical nuclear missiles, which are infinitely less dangerous than reactor explosions.

    If Israel uses a nuke they might as well nuke themselves, not only because of the inevitable retaliation but because no world community, however bribed and blackmailed their rulers, can accept nukes being used for aggressive war and conquest. It would be the end of everything.

    So these typewriter commandos need to stop pretending it’s merely another tactical step. They are nuking their own rep as analysts.

    1. The Rev Kev

      I was reading back in the 80s that whenever NATO did a war game that saw the introduction of tactical nukes, that it always escalated into a full scale nuclear exchange between the two teams.

      1. TimmyB

        My understanding of such war games was that there was a very real hesitancy to use nuclear weapons. No one wanted to be the first to use them.

        1. Michael Fiorillo

          May that ever remain the case, but when I observe the Gaza Doctrine, I wonder. These are social and moral grotesques, after all, and revel in their nihilism.

        2. Aurelien

          Such “games” were actually exercises, designed to test all possible scenarios. They were not predictive, and they followed a pre-set script, ensuring that anything that might potentially happen, and any potential decisions, were practised at some point. This is standard for crisis-management exercises of all types.

      2. ilsm

        Yes almost all games went MAD.

        Scuttlebutt was NATO would not stop the Red Army and go nuke in 72 hours.

    2. Cocomaan

      You’d think that there would be widespread outrage and a line would be crossed. I have my doubts. There’s connections between top US officials and a child trafficker. And nothing has really come of that.

      1. EY Oakland

        Yes. Similar doubts. GAZA ought to have been that “line” yet wasn’t. If that isn’t a loud warning I don’t know what is.

    3. Yalt

      Can we pause a moment to acknowledge the moral imbecility of a world in which the problem with a nuclear exchange is that it “would destabilize the global economy and impact investments worldwide”?

    4. t

      Not limited to this discussion but I always, perhaps incorrectly and with petty bias, see that sort of ostensibly cautious or reasonable “analysis” as low and cheap performance from the type of person whose only goal is to appear like the “adult in the room.”

      Less dangerous means what, exactly. I suppose a being caught in a flood is less dangerous that being caught in a fire, for some people, some of the time, at least immediately, before you have time to suffer or die from cholera or smoke inhalation. What point is being made, besides “I’m brave enough to talk nonsense about nuclear weapons and not be a ‘fraidy cat.”

    5. TRM

      I don’t know. Bibi is awful desperate. The only thing keeping Israel from using their nukes is Iran’s capability to wipe out Dimona with hypersonic missiles.

      The line “which are infinitely less dangerous than reactor explosions” ignores that fact because they don’t get to choose just one. They get both whether they want it or not.

    6. n

      Unfortunately coming to that conclusion requires logic and critical thinking ability, which seems in short supply amongst the decision making people of the world today.

      We cannot discount the possibility of something happening merely because only an idiot would do such things.

    7. vidimi

      i have no doubt that the EU would do everything in its power to gaslight its publics that Israel using nukes was justified, righteous even, and we must continue supporting them and award them the Eurovision title to boot.

    8. Paradox of Unrealized Power

      If Israel uses a nuke they might as well nuke themselves, not only because of the inevitable retaliation but because no world community, however bribed and blackmailed their rulers, can accept nukes being used for aggressive war and conquest. It would be the end of everything.

      People would have said the same thing a few years ago–and just as adamantly–about committing genocide.

      But I agree that Israel is unlikely to use a nuke

  13. PVDSteve

    Medhurst is well intentioned but like all the commentary breathlessly asserting that this is a master plan to permanently enshrine US dominance through control of oil supplies, he is being blinded by years of the US being able to smash countries and take relatively little damage. In fact, Trump’s assault on the world is accelerating the decline of US unipolar dominance by forcing countries across the world to transition to renewables and nuclear energy far sooner than they had planned. The end of cheap, easily accessible oil, far from putting the US in the driver’s seat long term, will only put the pedal to the floor on China surpassing it. China builds the solar panels, wind turbines, transformers, modular reactors, and infrastructure needed for any country to become energy self sufficient. Concerns about production overcapacity in China’s renewables sector will be a thing of the past when they are the obvious solution for every non-petrostate in the world. Even right wing nationalist elites in states that don’t produce their own oil can see the benefits of not being held hostage to an external fuel supply. For now, China can buy the oil it needs from Russia while continuing its unparalleled shift to energy autarky. Sure oil will still be needed for industrial purposes and chemicals, but with the phasing out of thermal power plants demand will drop through the floor. Any plan for the US to dominate global energy neglects the fact the oil just ain’t the only game in town any more, so making it massively more expensive is just going to make people move away from it.

    The short term individual gains for the war profiteers around Trump are real, but they come at the expense of US hegemony.

    1. JMH

      As I see it, there was a moment in the 1990s when the notion of hegemony had a semblance of reality, but it was assumed not tested. 9/11 and Afghanistan followed by Iraq. The hegemon did not succeed in dominating either. Tactical successes are momentary. The strategic? Illusory. Yes, Iran is the seventh nation being slapped around. It has been damaged, but has the “hegemon” accomplished its aims? What were they in the first place? Israel, Bibi and the Boys, wanted, have wanted Iran neutered for a generation or two. It stood and still stands as an obstacle to their aggressive aim to dominate the region. Was their ever any glimmer of a possibility of Israel as regional hegemon without its being propped up by US money and weapons and political cover? Is there any glimmer of a possibility that it could sustain its ongoing assault on Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran? What has been accomplished? The world economy teeters on the edge of recession, maybe depression. That is a world historical accomplishment that is sure to earn Israel and the US, Bibi and Trump, the pariah and the pirate, universal opprobrium. With varying degrees of haste ranging from mere urgency to incipient panic people and nations consider alternatives and, I am sure, take the first steps to get out of the petroleum trap to the extent that they are able. Are they blessing Bibi and Trump for pushing them toward renewables and nuclear energy since the pace of change may itself be ruinous in the short to medium term? What was to have been a quick easy weekend war … a great win for Donny … is ripping the seams of the world order. “… and what rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches toward Bethlehem to be born.” Yeats could have had no idea the impact, the universality, of that poem.

    2. vidimi

      Medhurst’s thesis does not require victory in Iran, merely taking the region offline

      You’re right, though, that doing so would accelerate the green energy transition which China is, by far, the best placed to capitalise on.

  14. Cocomaan

    I have no doubt that there’s no coincidence at work when it comes to refineries exploding. But whether it’s the USA or Israel? Can’t be sure. There’s any number of actors that might do this in order to ratchet up tension, or to make it appear the USA is doing something. Oil companies have plenty of spies too.

    1. vidimi

      Also, the dead and disappeared scientists have something to do with this, too, though hard to guess exactly how at this stage.

    1. mzza

      placing his next declaration of action, wait, oh yes, at Friday again. DT’s focus on markets opening Monday and closing Friday are as regular as the ticking of a clock on a time-bomb.

    2. voislav

      This aligns with the Bush Carrier Group arrival, which is 3-5 days away from the Arabian Sea. Lincoln and Ford Carrier groups likely have depleted their ordnance (Tomahawks and interceptors), so they have limited ability to launch the Big Strike Trump keeps threatening. Bush Carrier Group is fresh out of US with full magazines and may have been loaded with extra Tomahawk missiles before departure.

  16. Ann

    UAE Warns US It Could Sell Oil in Chinese Yuan if War Drains Dollar Supplies, Triggering Biggest Threat to the Petrodollar Since the 1970s

    https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/uae-china-yuan-oil-sales-petrodollar-crisis-us-dollar-shortage-iran-war/

    Pentagon wants $54B for drones, more than most nations’ military budgets

    https://arstechnica.com/ai/2026/04/pentagon-wants-54b-for-drones-more-than-most-nations-military-budgets/

    Trump says currency swap with UAE is under consideration

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-currency-swap-with-uae-is-under-consideration-2026-04-21/

    Gates Foundation says it has opened external review of Epstein ties

    https://www.reuters.com/business/gates-foundation-cut-20-staff-review-epstein-ties-wsj-reports-2026-04-21/

  17. JustAnothetVolunteer

    Minor correction. It’s Joe Kernen (news anchor) not Joe Kernan ( former South Bend city mayor and Governor of Indiana).

    1. Dr. John Carpenter

      Haha, I had the exact same reaction. ( I kind of knew South Bend Joe. Got drunk with him a time or two back in the day.) It would be about six years too late for Gov. Kernen to comment on anything.

  18. Ann

    A Pentagon intelligence agency assessment says Iran still has significant military capabilities

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/pentagon-intelligence-agency-assessment-says-iran-still-significant-mi-rcna341068

    Indonesia Floats Ship Tax in Malacca Strait as Singapore Defends Free Passage

    https://jakartaglobe.id/news/indonesia-floats-ship-tax-in-malacca-strait-as-singapore-defends-free-passage

    Iran’s UN envoy announced possible talks in Pakistan after the lifting of the US blockade

    https://unn.ua/en/news/irans-un-envoy-announced-possible-talks-in-pakistan-after-the-lifting-of-the-us-blockade

    Iran sees mass redundancies from war with US and Israel

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce84e31376zo

    Ukraine could send British built minehunting ships to Hormuz

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/ukraine-could-send-british-built-minehunting-ships-to-hormuz/

    1. JonnyJames

      Ongoing thanks for all the links Ann

      I clicked on the BBC one and it’s paywalled. I thought they were funded by the UK gov and obligatory license fees. I would imagine they are back-door supported by MI6 as well. Now they want to fleece gullible folks who believe the BBC is a source of reliable information? British BS Corporation. I would never willingly give money to supporters of genocide, wars, and some of the worst crimes in history. There’s plenty of laughable propaganda out there that’s free.

      2. m-ga

        BBC is freely available inside the UK (website, TV, radio). There is a compulsory licence fee.

        BBC blocked the iPlayer (TV) content outside the UK a while ago, which kind of makes sense. They show a lot of syndicated content (e.g. US TV shows) that the rights-holders could reasonable complain about being made freely available for anyone to watch worldwide. They also sell their original content overseas (e.g. British Bakeoff, Top Gear), which is harder to do if it’s already free to view.

        I hadn’t realised they’d paywalled their news coverage. Making it freely available is a good way to project soft power. As the government broadcaster, the BBC is totally biased towards whatever UK Gov wants – even as successive UK Govs have continually complained about BBC being biased against UK Gov.

        Paywalling the news content is thus yet another way of UK Gov defeating itself. Likely, it was considered necessary by the BBC due to continual funding cuts from UK Gov – they need to get money from somewhere. But it’s a surrender of soft power by the UK akin to the budget cuts for the British Council offices.

        1. Aurelien

          I have no problem accessing the BBC from just about anywhere. You may be thinking of iPlayer, which is the BBC’s replay service. Because the BBC is funded by a compulsory levy on everyone in the country who has a TV set, you need a UK address to access it. That’s a nuisance for people like me, but I suppose it’s fair. Other national broadcasters funded in the same way (NHK for example) have the same policy.

        1. JonnyJames

          I’m in California. This must be something new, even in the US, it was never paywalled before.

  20. dearieme

    We must all look for the silver lining. It is the surge in the price of condoms. It will end the Baby Bust and rescue western, and eastern, economies.

    1. Al

      Or combined with looming antibiotic shortages and ongoing shortages (IM penicillin for example) it just leads to large scale STI outbreaks and maternal-fetal transmissions of STIs.

      Trump said he wanted to take us back to the good old days. I didn’t know he meant the pre-antibiotic horse buggy era.

  21. Richard, We the Peoples

    Re Medhurst’s big picture: I believe it’s a brilliant lens through which to see the last few years. The CIA of JFK’s days has long since morphed into a ‘regime’ within a Government, as the ex-CIA specialist John Kiriakou has attested. A thesis that the CIA and Chevron, with complicity with the Zionists, has worked on such a long term plan to conserve US hegemony thru’ constraining non-US fossil trading seem highly plausible from Medhurst’s dot joining.
    President Obscenity is little more than an ignorant barker, constantly being fed story lines to crudely form a distracting narrative, a smokescreen for the MSM pretties, whilst being kept mostly on the rails by his zionist cohort.

    The latest news from Hockstein confirming Biden was intending to attack Iran lends credence to the bigger picture logic that Medhurst relates. Not in Medhurst’s 32min post but he mentions at the end of the nr 2hr post on Consortium News, that this US strategy explains the significance attached to AUKUS, the massive submarine programme that Australia has been dragooned into. As someone said, there are only two kinds of naval ships: submarines and targets. What better way to up the count of unexplained disappearances of tankers.
    We should consider that the US Obscenity is presiding over a seemingly incoherent, distracting narrative whilst deep behind the scenes the US hegemon has long since realised and considered the threat to de-dollarisation. It’s the magician’s trick: all this manipulation with the right hand along with the weird distracting talk whilst the trick is quietly achieved with the left hand (Admittedly, gross over-simplification having to manage an obscene nut-job at the ‘helm’).

    Medhurst admits he can’t conclusively prove this strategy but there just seems too many successive coincidences, feeding towards a potentially desirable outcome for the US. The one weakness has been the gross underestimation of Iran. For Iran to come out of this with resolved, long-term security means that the Zionist entity – the instrument of decades-long vandalism and destabilisation across the Levant – needs to be systematically collapsed. That would also help transform US politics, and even UK politics which is also steeped in zionist influences.
    Medhurst’s post deserves the widest audience. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nt1CgQsgpI

    1. Revenant

      It doesn’t have to be the only strategy, either.

      It is enough that the US geostrategic planners see a net positive payoff from attacking Iran, as the sum of either seizing control outright (yes, I know, very funny, bear with me!) or advancing Medhurst’s Standard-Oil-Octopus redux.

      The US is retreating to its Western Hemisphere and tightening the screws on its vassals and enemies worldwide. Being the least dirty shirt in the wash has worked for the US financial economy and now they are trying it for the real economy.

  22. John Merryman

    In terms of there being some grand strategy, basically it’s bacteria racing across the petri dish.
    The advantage of multicellular organisms is being able to sense and navigate their surroundings.
    In that states function as social super organisms, government, executive and regulatory, is the nervous system, while money and banking function as blood and the circulation system. We have evolved enough to understand that government works best by being accountable to the entire society, otherwise the central authority is weakened and civil wars tend to happen
    We haven’t yet come to understand the same principle applies to banking. When the medium enabling markets is a player and not a utility, the rest are tenants. So the banks are having their, “Let them eat cake.” moment.
    The problem with that is the primary motivating factor is greed, not any larger vision. Which would be the function of government, but as it is currently populated by moral prostitutes, who’s only function is to run up the debt the financial sector.
    We are reaching the edge of the petri dish.

  23. ScotsBloke

    Aurelien has posted IMHO an interesting piece on the possibilities of “negotiations” — or not. Makes some interesting points about the two sides’ positions and the sheer complexities involved. Aurelien also makes some prognostications on how things might evolve.

    https://aurelien2022.substack.com/p/to-a-conclusion?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=841976&post_id=194948355&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=3amo44&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

    1. Mike Day

      To spell out the critical quote in Aurelien’s piece: “But we have become so used to the Liberal internationalist way of thinking, where all problems have a reasonable solution and compromise is only a negotiation away, that we cannot recognize and understand a situation where a negotiated solution cannot actually address the fundamental issues that divide parties from each other. But that is the case here. The obsession of the US and Israel with the destruction of Iran, and the Iranian desire to preserve itself and to come to dominate the region, can simply never be reconciled, even by the most brilliant negotiators in history. This one, I’m afraid, will have to be fought out to a conclusion, whatever that might be.” Buckle up, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

  24. lyman alpha blob

    Apparently Iran doesn’t think much of Trump’s unilaterally declared cease fire, and has resumed firing.

    Dimitri Lascaris cites the BBC and says that Iran has attacked three ships so far this morning. That discussion starts at about the 23:00 mark.

    More from BBC – https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxd074kr8go

    “Iran’s navy said it has seized two cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz and taken them to the country’s coast after reports that three vessels came under fire from Iranian forces.

    Nour News, a website affiliated with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) opened fire on the first ship, the Epaminodes, after it had “ignored the warnings of the Iranian armed forces”.

    A second ship, named Euphoria, was then stopped after being “fired upon”, followed by the targeting of a third vessel, the MSC-Francesca, according to BBC Verify.

    IRGC-affiliated outlet Fars News Agency said the Revolutionary Guard was behind the attacks.”

    1. lyman alpha blob

      Also at about 32:00, Lascaris shows recent footage of large crowds at a pro-Iranian government demonstration surrounding a missile launcher that was rolled out for the occasion. Looks like they are ready for a fight.

    2. frank

      The US naval blockade is an act of war and consequently a violation of the ceasefire by the US.
      One should not be surprised that Iranian military would seize ships of unfriendly countries.
      My 2cents

  25. Bill Carson

    “In this situation, there will be many casualties, which could have two effects on American public opinion: either strong public condemnation of Trump’s actions or a national wave of support for the war, fueling a desire for revenge.”

    Why not both? Knowing the American public like I do, and seeing how things have worked out so far (e.g., a sitting President attempts to overthrow his own government, and yet is reelected four years later), this really doesn’t seem like an either/or question at all. In fact, many casualties would likely result in (not long after Schumer issues a strongly-worded letter) Dems supporting the war publicly, rather than sitting on their hands and dithering.

    1. vidimi

      would mass troop casualties in an obviously illegal and unpopular war really galvanise public support for the war or hatred for the president who chose to perpetrate it?

  26. PilotPaul

    I remember awaiting takeoff in Philadelphia about a decade or so ago while a large refinery fire was in progress north of the airport. The black smoke was massive and air traffic was routed around the area due to helicopters and smoke. It looked like a very big deal to me, but when I got to my overnight city there was no mention of it whatsoever on the national news. I think it would be instructive to see if there is data on how common these fires are. Is our awareness heightened, or is there a real upturn in damage to the facilities?

    1. Darthbobber

      I remember that one.. It started with an explosion and burned for hours. It put an end to that aging refinery and the cleanup is only now nearing completion. A particularly dangerous refinery because the city had sprawled around it over the years, and in SW Philly there were houses 50 feet from storage tanks.

  27. JonnyJames

    Re: Medhurst and Berletic. Thanks Nate for bringing this up.

    “…I trust Medhurst’s reporting, but like Brian Berletic, he is so wary of the evil empire that sometimes he may see intention where there is only floundering…”

    The two need not be mutually exclusive however, I can see that the long-term, desperate, and reckless intentions of a declining US are being attempted, but failing miserably, and possibly leading to global confrontation.

    The larger macro view, as well as the long-term historical context (where people like Michael Hudson excel) is often overlooked with the micro focus on detail, of course we need both.

    Like other analysts we may not agree with everything they write/say, but they bring powerful arguments to the table and round out the discussion.

      1. Socal Rhino

        No, but when you make every story fit your particular paranoid obsession it makes for less than compelling reading. In all seriousness, if you’ve read one analysis from Berletic you don’t need to read further. You know what he’s going to say. Like you know what Doctorow is going to say. In general, I see an excess of “analysis” by people with no particular expertise. Seems like they all try to carve out a niche to stay relevant.

        Other than sorting out events from fiction as they happen, I’m investing my discretionary time in reading oil and commodity analysts to understand what we’re likely to see in the next 6-9 months. But everyone’s mileage varies.

  29. lampoon

    Fog of War Department: Has anybody seen confirmation of the xitter post by one Mansour Almalik yesterday, as reported by Substacker Charlie Garcia (Capital Mischief), that the IRGC has placed the three main Iran negotiators Qalibaf, Araghchi, and Pezeshkian under house arrest?

    1. lyman alpha blob

      Quick search only turned up skepticism of the claims – https://xcancel.com/MarioNawfal/status/2046729443041800465

      For what Nawful’s opinion is worth –

      “Unverified. No credible confirmation yet, but gaining traction.

      Much of this is being pushed by anti-Iran, pro-Saudi accounts.

      While I’ve been watching for signs of fractures inside the Iranian government, I highly doubt this specific report.

      ~snip~

      Right now, this is wish-casting fan fiction dressed up as intelligence.”

    2. voislav

      Araghchi at least has been posting on Telegram as usual, doubt that would be the case if he was under house arrest.

    3. Doggo

      Interestingly enough, I got an email this morning from Polymarket pushing this exact post.

      < email screenshot here >

      When I saw it, my BS detector went off at level 10. So I checked around and sure enough, it’s complete garbage, probably originating from some flunky at Mossad or CIA. Just the typical lies pushed by these people.

      What concerns me is why Polymarket is actively disseminating obvious US govt propaganda. They are not a news site. They are supposed to be a private money-making venture preying on gambling addicts.

      And the only answer I can think of is, Polymarket is a govt honeypot operation. Maybe it was directly created by the intelligence agencies or maybe it wasn’t, but these agencies obviously control it just like they control Axios and Washington Post.

      2. ThirtyOne

        From Trustpilot:
        Review summary

        Based on reviews, created with AI

        Most reviewers were let down by their experience overall. Many people were dissatisfied with the website, encountering issues with its functionality and finding it difficult to use. Customers also frequently reported problems with the payment system, including difficulties with deposits and withdrawals, and concerns about fund accessibility. The customer service was widely criticized for being unhelpful, unresponsive, and difficult to reach. Reviewers also felt the company was not competitive, with some suggesting the platform’s operations were not transparent. Additionally, many expressed dissatisfaction with the pricing, believing it was unfair or led to financial losses.

      3. Lee

        “Polymarket is a govt honeypot operation.”

        With Donald J. Trump Jr. as an advisor, and Peter Thiel a major investor, I’d wager you’re on to something. (Source: Wikipedia)

    4. Polar Socialist

      Pezeshkian is the president, he’s not part of the negotiating team in any way or form.

      One must remember that the source for all the “information” about a schism between politicians and IRGC is Iran International, a “news” site located in London and funded by Saudi Arabia.

  30. chuck roast

    So, now the vaunted US Navy has made a prize of the fully loaded MV Tifani, a VLCC tanker…the fortune of war. They have pirated a vessel in the middle of the Indian Ocean. Now what do they do with it? Are they the dog that caught the car? I’m curious what nearby country would allow the pirates to shepherd this typhoid tanker into port. Maybe the Aussies who appear to be fully Mafia adjacent. Are there Polymarket odds yet? I’m following the White House staff to their favorite betting parlor.

    1. n

      Actually there is a big polymarket fight about this.

      https://polymarket.com/event/us-forces-seize-another-oil-tanker-by-april-15

      Some people are saying the ship is not seized and was merely boarded.

      The verbiage that the US gov used to report this tanker was different than the cargo ship they reported that they seized a few days earlier.

      Im not sure what exactly has happened with this ship, but in the next few days it will probably go to a port somewhere and that should tell us who’s in control of the oil on it.

      1. The Rev Kev

        Will the US try to sell the oil aboard that tanker? I myself would be extremely wary about buying it because of legal issues alone.

  31. Lefty Godot

    Do we have any accounting in the MSM for the exact number of casualties (deaths and disabling injuries) that American troops have suffered so far? If so, has it been based on official US government statements or on the usual “unnamed officials”? Has the claim been independently verified or just accepted as stated? Is this going to be one of those ongoing mysteries (like the two alleged assassination attempts against Trump) that we just don’t talk about, or only mention in fine print many months after some new shiny object has become the focus of attention?

  32. Darthbobber

    The US is at that point in the game where no promising continuation appears on the board so one is shuffling one’s rooks around aimlessly while hoping something else comes to mind or the opponent blunders.

  34. Luis Aldamiz

    Great fan myself of that analysis by Richard Medhurst that challenges the narrative of “no goal” by one of “wreaking global economic havoc” is the actual undeclared war goal. I have adopted it myself tentatively. However a very similar theory I found even earlier in another Richard (Awakening Richard), who just days after the Hormuz War began was suggesting that the real goal of the USA is not just to damage Iran but also their own Arab allies like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, etc. in order to near-monopolize the oil and gas supply globally.

    There’s also Russia, of course, but there I’ve been for a while munchin on the theory that it will also be dislodged by the Euro-Canadian “coalition of the willing” via naval blockade. Not happening yet (my calculations were that it should because Ukraine is colapsing and helping Ukraine would be another pillar of this planned new “Crimean War” type of conflict but whatever, I’ve been wrong before).

    Whatever the case, this war is not just what seems to be. There are immense global economic consequences and these cannot be just an accident: too big not to have a plan behind.

    1. KD

      There are immense global economic consequences and these cannot be just an accident: too big not to have a plan behind.

      No, Trump is dumb enough to believe that he could pull off a Venezuela-like result in Iran in a couple days, or just declare a ceasefire and walk away like last time.

      The US was shocked that Iran closed the Straights of Hormuz, which is hard to believe because all the independent analysts were saying they would.

      Now Trump needs a “win” to save face, Iran won’t give it to him (since he’ll be back in 6 months), he wants to escalate but Iran has escalation dominance, he wants the campaign to end up he wants Iran to throw in the towel, so he is left with a bunch of bad options and no off ramp. The economic consequences will simply build until he does something else reckless and stupid, which will make the economic consequences worse, which will then result in more claims of 3D chess.

      There is no good strategy here for the US. It does not help the US to crush oil and gas production in the ME. Yes, US has oil and gas, and temporary blip in price will help domestic oil and gas short-term, but US can’t supply the world and the demand reduction/global depression will be a nightmare for US economy. Hurting GCC will result in sale of US bonds and equities, driving down stocks. Yes, China get oil from Iran BUT not clear China won’t continue to get oil from Iran as interference will bring China directly into the war. Further, China has something like a year of strategic reserves, so our “allies” in Europe and SE Asia will be getting IMF bailouts and food riots long before anything catches up to China. Plus, they control the strategic resources, rare earths, etc. that the US needs to rebuild its now depleted arsenal.

      Its about as clever as jumping off the Empire State Building in order to qualify for SSDI.

      1. Mikel

        Looking at how to frame what “Trump” thought doesn’t address the hypothesis that this is a project that began in the early 2000s (post -9/11) and sometimes beyond. But it’s a mid-term election year, so I get where it comes from.

        1. KD

          Richard Perle wrote a nice memo to Bibi in 1996, the “Clean Break.” Yes, the neocons have wanted to invade Iran for decades, but they didn’t have a President stupid enough to do it until 2024. But the point of the “Clean Break” is securing Israeli regional hegemony in the ME, they don’t care about anything else, so destroying the world economy or wiping out the Republican Party is just collateral damage, its not a plan.

          1. Mikel

            For the current situations to be in play (and they are in play and far from over), it took more than getting Trump into position.

      2. KD

        I think the issue will resolve itself when the economic consequences get to the point that the Zionist billionaires are forced to make a choice between remaining Zionists or remaining billionaires. At that point, we might experience a shift in policy.

    2. JP

      So yeah, while I’m sure there is no real unity of opinion in the halls of power, maybe there are some who think all that heavy Venezuelan and Canadian oil sand crude could put the US in the catbird seat if the middle east was destroyed. I think the problem is the global resentment that would engender would, in time, leave the US a small fortress country with few allies and a lot of enemies.

      The popularity of this administration is sinking. Military casualties are not going to rally support for this war. It seems increasingly likely that it all unravels. By the time it becomes a sell everything and go to cash moment it will be too late. There may be no safe place to ride this out especially if the repercussions last more then a life time. I knew I should have learned Mandarin

      1. Wukchumni

        We’re all prisoners of our times and its gonna hit hard on us because money was what we were all about, when rather all of the sudden its the almighty bupkis.

        The sliver lining being that I really enjoy Chinese food, when they become our new masters…

        Would’ve been a bit dodgier red plate special if the USSR had prevailed in the early 90’s instead of the USA~

          1. ambrit

            Me, I have a hankering for some General Tso Tso’s Chicken TACO with a side of Donald’s Dim Son. An after dinner spliff of Kush-Nur will round out the dining experience. (As with most items in Washington these days, the “Natural Order of Things” is reversed.)

        2. ilsm

          Sometime in 2005 was driving around Czech Republic SW of Prague.

          Stopped at a small village restaurant for lunch, borscht was on the menu.

          I did not order I think it was a humor linked to when the Red Army was in the area.

      2. A Little Bird

        Canadian tar sands are not a replacement for Middle East crude, the product requires a huge amount of solvents just to be pumped through the pipe, and there is very limited refining capacity in North America for the resulting product, Dilbit. Most of the easy to harvest and refine stuff is long gone. The process comes with a massive amount of waste byproduct, which is radioactive , and uses an absurd amount of energy. Someone in the trump administration maybe thought that, but as we often see with these chuds reality is something entirely different.

    3. A Little Bird

      Lmao, yeah good luck getting assistance from Canada. Donnie closed that door and nailed it shut. Our Prime Minister has been clear that we will not be joining trump and bibis war of choice. America itself is EXTREMELY unpopular with Canadians, just ask all those cross border cities that aren’t getting cross border visits anymore. The bromance is over, the damage is real, we REALLY are actually mad at Americans, not just trump.

      MAYBE as part of a joint UN peacekeeping force after the cessation of hostilities but honestly, can’t see Iran excepting that at all. We aren’t going to die for Israel, our PM is not in the Epstein files.

      1. The Rev Kev

        There is a YouTube channel called Guard The Leaf by a Canadian who is extremely critical of the Trump portion of America-

        https://www.youtube.com/@GuardTheLeaf/videos

        It will take at least a generation to have the resentment between Canadians and Americans to die down on both sides and virtually all this resentment was created in only the past year or two. That’s a heckuva job that.

        1. A Little Bird

          More than one trumpo threatened to *invade* our country. 1812 wasn’t actually that long ago…

  35. Mikel

    As long as the most wretched billionaires, groups like the neocons, and the system of global comprador elites (Nell Bonilla – https://worldlinesletter.substack.com/ – has produced some good writing on that subject) can operate without accountability, they can try and fail ad infinitum with plans that subjugate masses. In doesn’t matter if most of “grand ideas” never work out for the rest, they just need one or two plans among the non-stop flooding of the zone to work enough for them to maintain their hold on power. The USA doesn’t hold the monopoly on this “flooding the zone” method of politics. It’s a political play that should be familiar to anyone in any country dealing with a sect that intends to hold power long past their due date.

    The cadtm.org site also has some good articles that should make one think about the connections between global elites. (www.cadtm.org/English).

    Note: hat tip to NTW for reminding everyone about Yves’ points about the “petrodollar” narrative. It was something that I also remembered when I heard Medhurst’s post. Some parts of his hypothesis do track and, in some cases, I think he might be overlooking the levels of cooperation from other players in the world such plans would need…and underplaying how diabolical some of the moves could be viewed.

    As for Brian B., while I don’t always agree with view of the Israel/USA relationship or the lack of agency he has a tendency to ascribe to other countries, he does make sure to remind people of the global corporate interests behind the shenanigans.

  36. Glen

    Trump’s plan to make America First the only path forward by wrecking the American Empire is gathering momentum. Soft power realignment in those areas first affected by oil shortages are beginning:

    China says it will resume some ties with Taiwan after visit by opposition leader
    https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-policies-cheng-liwun-visit-xi-c72dd46ae64ee8e55c9df14cd56d5971

    Japan’s Takaichi seeks urgent summit with Iran as Trump’s Hormuz deadline looms
    https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3349124/japans-takaichi-seeks-urgent-summit-iran-trumps-hormuz-deadline-looms

    South Korea Joins East Asian Countries Weighing Russian Oil Purchases
    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/03/19/south-korea-joins-east-asian-countries-weighing-russian-oil-purchases-a92266

    Masterful plan: Repeatedly piss off all your key allies, and then wreck their economies all while demonstrating that the American military has become more corrupt profit grifting than an actual defense force.

    1. Doggo

      Japan and S. Korea can start buying Russian oil when they kick out the US military from their country and reclaim the US bases on their soil (and build a nice dog park on that land or something).

      I mean, they sent weapons to Ukraine because their puppetmaster Tony Blinken told them to, right? And those weapons no doubt killed at least a few Russians. Why should Russia bail them out now when these spineless Junited States puppets killed whatever relationship they had with Russia for no good reason?

      I imagine whatever surplus oil Russia has available for export is highly coveted by friendlier and saner countries like China and India. So if I were Putin, I would firmly communicate that these are the conditions for receiving Russian oil and gas: kick out the US military and never let them in again.

  37. Tom Stone

    The White House has to be an interesting place to work these days. all the Courtiers angling for personal advantage while Wiles and a few others try to manage a Grandiose Narcissist with full blown dementia.
    If you have ever had to deal with someone who is strong willed and in the grip of full blown dementia you know how exhausting it is.
    It is an impossible task over the long term and they have been holding things together ( No nukes is a low but realistic bar) for six Months or more.
    It’s going to be a lively summer, be sure to pick up a P100 mask and some body armor while they are cheap.

  38. A Little Bird

    I’ll say this too – I work in a very public facing job and I meet a wide variety of folks. I would say based on my anecdotal research that average Canadians broadly support IRAN. Despite what our talking heads say, the pro Palestinian movement is HUGE in Canada. We actually have a small Iranian -pro monarchy- diaspora but when they hold demonstrations they aren’t well attended and people tend to roll their eyes at “patriots” who are asking for their country to be bombed to dust.

    All that to say a lot of people here are already distrustful at best of Israel, and Canadians have never been as pro American as Americans think. The only people who aren’t behind Iran are ideological cranks like the head of the opposition, our largely foreign owned media, and people who aren’t paying attention at all.

    No one wants this. America is living in a world of delusions

  39. ChrisFromGA

    I’m not sure why I feel like posting this, I suppose I am sharing in case it helps anyone.

    We ought to be careful not to internalize Taco’s shuffling madness or let him live rent-free in our heads. I am just as guilty of this as anyone. The more we hold on to any emotions and let them create a story, the more we end up hurting ourselves.

    Humor helps, it is hard to take seriously what we find ridiculous. In the fullness of time, he’ll be forgotten and all his egoistic behavior will amount to nothing.

    Plus, I suspect that the universe or whatever God you believe in will have the last laugh, and not in the afterlife, either.

    1. erstwhile

      I don’t mind trump living in my head. He got that place where the toilet doesn’t work.

    2. Samuel Conner

      > In the fullness of time, he’ll be forgotten and all his egoistic behavior will amount to nothing.

      I hope that the damage he has done and is yet to do will be sufficiently limited that this statement proves to be true.

    1. Doggo

      Not an oil refinery, although the company does have the word “Refiner” in the name.

      It seems to be just a run-of-the-mill industrial accident, at a chemical processing facility that recovers silver from waste slag (or something). Not energy related.

  41. Ann

    US turns to Ukrainian counter-drone tech after Iran attacks, sources say

    https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-turns-ukrainian-counter-drone-tech-after-iran-attacks-sources-say-2026-04-22/

    Macron Urges Israel to Drop ‘Territorial Ambitions’ in Lebanon

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-21/macron-urges-israel-to-drop-territorial-ambitions-in-lebanon

    Maxwell Sends Mystery USB to DOJ Days After Melania Bombshell

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/maxwell-sends-mystery-usb-to-doj-days-after-melania-bombshell/

    MAGA Loses It as Trump’s Redistricting Plot Backfires

    https://newrepublic.com/post/209362/maga-reaction-virginia-redistricting-win

    Denmark chooses Europe’s Patriot rival for air defence system

    https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/denmark-chooses-europes-patriot-rival-air-defence-system-2026-04-21/

    Peter Thiel is building a parallel justice system — Powered by AI

    https://www.codastory.com/polarization/can-we-trust-an-ai-jury-to-judge-journalism/

    Iran claims US exploited networking equipment backdoors during strikes — says devices from Cisco and others failed despite blackout in attack that ‘indicates deep sabotage’

    https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/cyber-security/iran-claims-us-exploited-networking-equipment-backdoors-during-strikes

    Investors lost billions on U.S President’s memecoin. Another gala won’t fix that. | If Dems take Congress, U.S President may face reckoning for “pay-to-play” memecoin galas.

    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/04/investors-lost-billions-on-trumps-m
    emecoin-another-gala-wont-fix-that/

    Ex-Bondi Aide Says MAGA Too Incompetent to Carry Out Trump’s Revenge

    https://newrepublic.com/post/209345/pam-bondi-aide-maga-incompetent-donald-trump-revenge

    U.S. Investment Fund Sues Russia Over $225Bln in Unpaid Tsarist-Era Debts

    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/01/16/us-investment-fund-sues-russia-over-225bln-in-unpaid-tsarist-era-debts-a91697

    Trump Media CEO Leaves After Massive Stock Collapse

    https://newrepublic.com/post/209372/trump-media-ceo-leaves-massive-stock-collapse

    Top Trump Terror Official Exposed on ‘Sugar Daddy’ Site; A complaint filed with the DHS inspector general’s office accuses the 29-year-old of seeking out older men to fund her luxury lifestyle.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/top-donald-trump-terror-official-julia-varvaro-exposed-on-sugar-daddy-site/

    John Kerry Tells Colbert Trump Has Failed the ‘Greatest Duty of a President’ With Iran War

    https://www.thewrap.com/media-platforms/politics/john-kerry-president-trump-iran-war-late-show-stephen-colbert/

    Pentagon Erases Wounded U.S. Troops From Iran War Casualty List: “Definition of a Cover-up”

    https://theintercept.com/2026/04/22/iran-war-military-casualties-wounded/

    Canada ‘doubling down on globalization’ at odds with U.S. trade goal: Greer

    https://globalnews.ca/news/11812378/canada-doubling-down-globalization-at-odds-u-s-trade-goal-greer/

    CEO and CFO suddenly depart AI nuclear power upstart Fermi | TechCrunch

    https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/20/fermi-ceo-and-cfo-depart-texas-nuclear-power-ai/

    US approves potential $200 million sale of Hellfire missiles to the Netherlands

    https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-approves-potential-200-million-sale-hellfire-missiles-netherlands-2026-04-22/

    PM Carney says Canada has trade irritants with U.S., Lutnick calls policies ‘insulting’

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/trumps-tariffs/article/us-has-trade-irritants-with-canada-says-pm-carney-we-have-some-on-our-side-as-well/

    1. The Rev Kev

      ‘U.S. Investment Fund Sues Russia Over $225Bln in Unpaid Tsarist-Era Debts’

      Russia will probably ignore it as it is all bogus. Which internationally recognized court is there left that the US and Russia can deal with each other? This is like the time that a US court found that Iran was responsible for 9/11 and ordered that Iranian assets be awarded to 9/11 survivors. And you know that I am not making that last bit up.

      1. Polar Socialist

        It’s actually somewhat old news, as it happened already in January. Russia already replied that they have no intention to pay this, as the current Russia is a successor to Soviet Union, not the Russian Empire.
        Russians also pointed out that Noble Capital could have acted in 1996, when Russia was indeed settling some imperial debts on an ad hoc basis, but knowing how weak case they have, decided to wait for a situation like now, when they can go to US court to demand settlement from the frozen Russian assets with some modicum of success.

  42. David in Friday Harbor

    All that T cares about is getting attention. Like many with dementia he is mired in his own past, in this case simply relitigating in his head the 1979-80 hostage crisis. He has no plan now that the fantasy he had been fed that the Iranian government was going to collapse after three days of bombing has been disproved. He’s stuck.

    He now just spouts off randomly hoping to provoke a reaction somewhere. Like any 1970’s real estate speculator, he loves inflation and doesn’t care about the economic fallout; he actually revels in the way that high oil prices will pump-up asset prices in the same way that low interest rates did. If ordinary people suffer, who cares? It’s not going to be his family doing the suffering — his boys are making bank timing the whipsawing markets.

  43. SDB1

    Medhurst offers grand unified geopolitical conspiracy theory of US acting as pirate state controlling global energy flows through classic thalassocratic means – naval blockades (eg Indian Ocean), maritime chokepoints (eg Diego Garcia), coastal trade routes (eg Greenland).

    Getting squeezed are the pipeline, belt and road initiatives of the big three tellurocratic powers ie China, Russia, Iran. I would add MAGA to this list – it has classic tellurocratic focus on homeland security, border control and ethnic cohesion.

    Medhurst suggests Cyclone Narelle played its part in grand unified thalassocratic conspiracy. So Anglo weather magic obviously still working well. Nick Land would no doubt approve, much to chagrin of Aleksandr Dugin:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J86C4IJTaFw

  45. Jason Boxman

    Oh.

    Navy Secretary abruptly leaves job as US naval blockade of Iran continues (CNN, breaking)

    Secretary of the Navy John Phelan is leaving his position “effective immediately,” Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell announced on Wednesday.

    “On behalf of the Secretary of War and Deputy Secretary of War, we are grateful to Secretary Phelan for his service to the Department and the United States Navy,” Parnell said in a post on X. “We wish him well in his future endeavors. Undersecretary Hung Cao will become Acting Secretary of the Navy.”

    The announcement comes while the US Navy is carrying out a blockade of Iranian ports during a ceasefire in the Iran war. Thus far, US forces have redirected 29 vessels to return to port and have also boarded two ships.

    1. nyleta

      Replaced with a true believer ,Cao, who has an impressive resume and combat experience , but it is tainted by his vice presidency of CACI a company still tied up in lawsuits from its actions at Abu Grhaib. Morale must be falling and the navy needs someone to fire it back up,

  47. Ann

    Trump has hinted at nuclear war. Plans are under way to rein him in

    https://inews.co.uk/news/world/nuclear-codes-claims-fuel-calls-curbs-trumps-power-

    Reality Proves Again and Again Trump’s Attack on Iran Was Horrible Decision

    https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/iran-war-was-trump-mistake

    ‘We don’t understand’: oncologists condemn FDA’s ban on life-saving cancer drugs

    https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/rfk-ban-cancer-drugs-oncologists-krc2txldz

    ‘People just want it to end’: anger in White House as Iran talks collapse

    https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/chaos-white-house-trump-iran-plan-mkfzsxh8s

    Trump Threatens Companies That Seek Tariff Refunds They’re Owed

    https://newrepublic.com/post/209324/trump-companies-tariff-refunds

    Welcome to the Golden Age of Corruption in America

    https://www.newsweek.com/welcome-to-the-golden-age-of-corruption-in-america-11823193

    US House Oversight chair says some panel members open to Ghislaine Maxwell pardon

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-house-oversight-chair-says-some-panel-members-open-ghislaine-maxwell-pardon-2026-04-22/

    Reports of abuse pour out of federal immigration detention centers

    https://reason.com/2026/04/22/reports-of-abuse-pour-out-of-federal-immigration-detention-centers/

    Trump Corrupts, and Absolute Trump Corrupts Absolutely

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/22/opinion/trump-crypto-pardons-corruption.html

    FBI sends plane to Cuba to stop a trans kid from accessing gender-affirming care

    https://www.advocate.com/politics/national/cuba-fbi-plane-transgender-child

    It’s all a giant clusterf—’: Inside Trump’s floundering Iran peace process

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/04/21/white-house-iran-trump-war/

    Virginia judge blocks redistricting referendum from being certified

    https://wjla.com/news/local/virginia-congressional-map-redistricting-referendum-vote-attorney-general-tazewell-county-court-republicans-enjoins-injuctive-relief-voters-election-democrats-house-representatives

    USAID Whistleblower Says It Was Even Worse Than People Knew

    https://www.wired.com/story/usaid-whistleblower-says-it-was-even-worse-than-people-knew/

    1. urdsama

      Ann, thank you for all of the links! I can’t imagine wading through the massive amount misinformation to get items that don’t immediately fail the smell test.

    2. jrkrideau

      RE: U.S. Sends Plane to Cuba to Get Child in Transgender Custody Case

      This story just does not read right. Either the writers left out a lot or it is very, very, fishy.

      The FBI just called up President Miguel Díaz-Canel, said we think you have a couple of US kidnappers and the kidnapped child in Cuba.

      Would you kindly arrest the kidnappers, rescue the child and we will send an FBI plane down to pick them up?

      President Presiden Díaz-Canel said, “Sure no problem”.

      I would be expecting to hear about months of refugee claims and extradition proceedings.

      The fact that the USA is blockading the island, and would love to depose Díaz-Canel and carry out a regime change is not something to affect this?

  49. johnnyme

    Pakistan has requested U.S. gov’t to end blockade: sources

    ISLAMABAD, April 22 (Xinhua) — Pakistan has made a request to the United States government to end a naval blockade of Iran’s ports to give another push to the halted talks process, Pakistani sources told Xinhua on Wednesday.

    The sources said that Pakistan has also requested the U.S. side to release the seized Iranian ship and crew, and has received positive signals from the U.S. side.

    However, there is no timeline for when the ship and its crew will be released, the sources said.

  50. johnnyme

    INTERVIEW – Gaza-bound flotilla organizer says activists will block ships carrying supplies for Israel’s military

    A coalition of pro-Palestinian activists sailing toward Gaza says it is prepared to continue physically blocking ships it believes are supplying Israel’s military, after targeting one of the world’s largest cargo vessels in the Mediterranean.

    On Monday, more than 20 boats from the Global Sumud Flotilla converged on the MSC Maya, a nearly 400-meter-long (1,310-foot) container ship, in what organizers described as a coordinated action to disrupt the transport of materials allegedly linked to Israel’s weapons supply chain.

    The group said the vessel was heading to Israeli ports carrying materials used in military production.

    “From now on, we are blocking any complicit vessel that crosses our path on the way to Gaza,” Brazilian activist Thiago Avila told Anadolu.

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