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Iran War: Trump Doubles Down on “Reign Hell” April 6 Threat, Also Reports F-15 Officer Rescued; US Strike on Bushehr Nuclear Plant Breaches Protection Circuit; Multiple Interconnected Supply Crises Baked in Within Weeks; UPDATE Iran Claims Two More US Planes Downed

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Today’s Iran War post is launching hours before its normal time because I have competing obligations. I will update as needed when I return, so you will get a final version as usual by 8:00 AM EDT or so.

UPDATE per Aljazeera’s live feed:

Iran claims the downing of two C-130 planes and two Black Hawk helicopters belonging to the US. State television broadcast footage of wreckage, saying it belonged to one of the planes.

The underlying account on PressTV ‘Mission failed’: Iran destroys several US aircraft in botched ‘rescue’ bid in Isfahan:

The spokesman for the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters says Iranian forces have managed to destroy two US C-130 transport planes and two Black Hawk helicopters, which were conducting a mission to retrieve the pilot of a downed American fighter jet.

“The US Army’s so-called rescue operation, which was planned in the form of a deceive and immediate escape operation under the pretext of rescuing the pilot of its downed aircraft in an abandoned airport in southern Isfahan, was brought to a complete failure by the timing presence of the Iranian armed forces,” Lieutenant-Colonel Ebrahim Zolfaqari said on Sunday.

He added that during the operation by the Iranian forces, two C-130 military transport planes and two Black Hawk helicopters were destroyed.

And some of the footage:

Note that the BBC has not yet caught up with Aljazeera. From its live blog page at 7:45 AM EDT:

Back to the initial draft of the post:

Most readers know that Trump doubled down on his April 6 deadline after the so-called Black Friday serial US military aircraft losses and damage:

Lindsey Graham dutifully amplifies Trump:

The “reign” may reflect his king complex. We’ll have a bit more on that soon. But given Trump’s sensitivity to market action and his propensity to either jump deadlines or TACO, one has to assume that if he acts, it will be before the market opening on Monday.

Trump also announced that the US had rescued the weapons operator who was missing after Iran downed an F-15. Despite the established propensity of our armed services to lie about or underplay bad events, it would be highly risky for Trump to declare success and then have Iran produce a body or a prisoner of war video. From Trump:

It looks as if this rescue operation produced real costs on both sides:

Regardless of the status of the pilot it would make complete sense for Iran to go what is could to extend and misdirect the very risky search and rescue operations. Not verified but does not look good:

And RT does have some cred as well as contacts:

Mario Nawfal’s Dunning Kruger syndrome is annoying but it does have the effect of eliciting corrections of his parroting of orthodox messaging. Larry Wilkerson explains at the top US not much or not at all gone into Iranian airspace, confirming the comments of many that the US is nearly entirely using precision standoff weapons or quasi precise ones like JDAMs. That is partly a concern about Iran still having air defense capabilities but also the distances involved, that it is not feasible for planes to go that far into Iran even if they wanted to. He further notes that the fact that the US is running out of precision missiles means the US may decide to send planes in as far as they can go to drop older-fashioned ordnance directly on targets. So the successful downing of the F-15 may set off alarm bells about the risks of that probable next step. Wilkerson also note that plane may have strayed and not been intended to go as far as it did.

Wilkerson’s assessment implies that the Trump “hit them like we never have before” is actually anther admission of weakness, that the US will send in B-2s and B-52s to drop highly destructive gravity bombs because the US is running critically low on standoff weapons. Can Iran take down many of these planes if so?

Per Reuters (hat tip Ann), Iran says new air defence system used to target US fighter jet: 1

Iran used a ​new air ‌defence system on Friday ​to ​target a U.S. ⁠fighter jet, ​Iran’s Khatam ​al-Anbiya joint military command said ​on ​Saturday.

A spokesperson for the ‌joint ⁠military command said the country ​would “definitely ​achieve ⁠full control” ​over its ​airspace, ⁠according to Iranian ⁠state ​media.

This is a particularly good Hindustan Times segment, on probable status of Iran missiles, with a lot of detail on how well they are bunkered:

This Janta Ka update describes how the US retaliated for the pilot downing by attacking a refinery and a hospital; usefully shows a map of the area where the F-15 crashed. Also some amazing cope in light of what Wilkerson said above:

While nearly all eyes have been on the pilot rescue drama, the belligerents have continued with ever-more dangerous escalations. From Ann in Khaleej Times, US-Israeli strike on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant kills 1, injures 5:

A projectile from a US-Israeli attack hit near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in southern Iran on Saturday, killing one person, state media reported.

Five people were also wounded as the strikes targeted the petrochemicals hub, Iranian media cited an official as saying.

“Following the US-Zionist criminal attacks, this Saturday morning, around 8:30 am, a projectile hit the area near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the southwest,” said the official IRNA news agency.

It added that one of the building’s guards was killed but noted that there was no damage to the plant’s facilities.

“Explosions occurred in the Special Petrochemical Zone of Mahshahr,” said Fars news agency, citing the deputy governor for Khuzestan province, Valiollah Hayati.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi also referred to the damage to their Bushehr nuclear plant after a projectile hit nearby, warning of grave repercussions of such attacks.

“Israel and the US have bombed our Bushehr plant four times now. Radioactive fallout will end life in GCC capitals, not Tehran. Attacks on our petrochemicals also convey real objectives,” he said on X.

Note that Larry Johnson, yesterday on the Duran and re-reported by Alexander Mercouris on his Saturday talk, is that the widely expected ground invasion might attempt to capture Bushehr, which is a relatively accessible target. A mildly cleaned-up version from a machine transcript of Johnson’s remarks on The Duran:

If they hit anything, they’re going to go after Bushehr. If they’re going to put Delta Force or Seal Team 6 both from what I’m seeing based on the movement of aircraft from certain bases in the United States 63 take that back 74 flights of C17s would indicate that there are US special operations forces and and we draw the distinction between special ops as opposed to special force. forces and we can we can talk about that. But they they’re likely going to hit Basher, I think.

And:

We had put this tweet in comments on yesterday’s post:

Iran continues pounding Israel as its air defenses and even warning systems are becoming frayed:

Sal Mergoliano’s latest update:

Three points stood out for me: his careful explanation of how the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, the transit times of ships to various ports, which determines when shortages start to show up, and that it will take not mere insurance but military escorts for ship operators feel safe transiting the Strait.

Note that Iran is getting more Gulf states on board with its transit regime. See the prize you get for kicking the Americans off their airbase?

I have not seen this development confirmed but it seems credible. Qatar has tried to be neutral:

Jeff Snider on what the highly elevated near-term oil prices versus much cheaper longer-dated contracts means: demand destruction, as in at least a bad recession:

However, note that Snider focuses on oil as a macro economy predictor. The old saying is that the cure for high oil prices is high oil prices, in that if they are elevated enough, they can do something between produce a recession and kill activity stone cold dead. That in technical terms means demand for energy is pretty elastic.

By contrast, many of the real economy effects of the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz are in products where demand is not as elastic, such as food and medications. Here the prospect is not simply continuing high prices but shortages. And those shortages could prove very durable if manufacturers, distributors, or other key supply chain participants fail.

The shortages in many nations in Asia are a precursor to what Europe and the US will soon see. For instance:

We have been far from alone in highlighting the alarming complacency about coming shortages and resulting dislocations. The fact that many industries have been drawing on inventories, including materials in transit, has blinded far too many that normalcy is ending. From The Two-Week Window That Could Break Global Commodity Markets in OilPrice (hat tip Bill B):

  • Markets appear stable on the surface, but underlying stress is building across interconnected commodity chains—oil, gas, petrochemicals, fertilizers, helium, and logistics—raising the risk of a systemic breakdown.
  • The key shift is from pricing risk to deliverability and access risk, with supply chains losing flexibility and physical shortages beginning to emerge beneath still-functioning paper markets.
  • The next two weeks are critical: if disruptions persist, cascading failures could trigger inflation, supply shortages, and a broader global economic shock…..

The coming weeks will reveal which systemic risks-such as chain desynchronization or supply chain coupling-policymakers must prioritize to prevent cascading failures, guiding targeted proactive measures.

The real situation in the market has clearly shifted from disruption to early-stage system strain. Recognizing how oil, gas, naphtha, fertilizer, and helium are interconnected will help policymakers and analysts feel the system’s fragility and the risk of a widespread shock.

This coupling of commodity chains could lead to widespread economic impacts, including inflationary pressures and supply shortages, emphasizing the urgency for stakeholders to prepare for systemic disruptions…

Until now, an illusion has been in place, holding markets together over the past weeks: cargoes in transit, delayed physical impact, and the expectation of rapid stabilization. This will be fading as refiners begin to adjust intake assumptions. LNG buyers are moving from portfolio optimization to a clear new strategy: outright procurement urgency. Strategic reserves are being discussed not only as precautionary tools but also, given the facts on the ground, as potential necessities.

The divergence between paper and physical markets is widening. Benchmarks still reflect liquidity and sentiment. When looking at physical cargoes, there is clearly scarcity and risk. This gap is a precursor to dislocation and should already be recognized.

Shipping is accelerating this transition. War-risk insurance constraints are tightening further. It has also been changing as behavioral risk is rising. Owners are not only reacting to premiums; they are also slowly but steadily reassessing their exposure entirely. The result of this change is that there is a reduction of available tonnage in practice, even where fleets exist on paper. For all, deliverability, not production anymore, is the central constraint.

Oil and gas, however, are only the entry point.

The second chain, showing early signs of stress, is naphtha. Petrochemical margins have become increasingly compressed due to feedstock uncertainty and rising costs. It is not yet a full disruption, but the shift is visible: reduced operating rates, cautious procurement, and early signs of pricing pass-through.

The naphtha situation is critical as it sits at the core of industrial transformation. Plastics, chemicals, packaging, and solvents all depend on the availability of stable feedstocks. While there will not be an immediate shock, it will create a broad, creeping constraint across manufacturing systems.

And it is beginning.

The third chain, fertilizer, has already entered its critical window as gas-linked production economics deteriorate. At the same time, producers have begun adjusting output expectations. At present, the market is not yet recognizing all of it, as it is still treating fertilizer as a secondary risk because physical shortages have not yet materialized.

That is the mistake.

The fertilizer risk is already delayed and will remain that way for weeks or months. It needs to be recognized that production decisions made now will determine availability weeks and months ahead. All signs are already on red, with tightening margins, cautious production, and early signs of reduced forward supply becoming visible by the day. Once this translates into agricultural input shortages, the system will have very limited ability to respond.

Food inflation will not start today. But the conditions for it are being set now.

Helium, the fourth chain, has already made some headlines…

Policymakers and analysts should understand that the industries that are exposed to this development, such as healthcare, semiconductors, and advanced manufacturing, are not marginal economic sectors; they are critical. And they do not have easy substitutes.

The fifth chain, logistics, has moved to the forefront; it is no longer a background variable. Its role as a primary driver of system stress should make industry leaders and policymakers aware of the urgent need for action to maintain supply flexibility and prevent disruptions.

This is the shift markets are still underestimating.

The system is not only losing supply. It is losing flexibility….

Each chain does not fail independently. Each one accelerates the stress in the others. The result is not a series of shocks, but a system that loses its ability to absorb them.

At present, markets are still anchored in linear thinking, so no pricing for this situation is evident. Recognizing the coupling of these chains and their thresholds is crucial; delays could lead to rapid, uncontrollable shifts, urging policymakers and analysts to act now rather than wait for confirmation.

Markets and policymakers should understand that waiting for confirmation is the most expensive strategy. When all five chains show clear signs of disruption, an adjustment will already be underway, as prices will have moved, availability will be constrained, and decision-making will shift from optimization to allocation.

Looking at the system at present, there are clear signs that this shift is already in place in parts of it.

Looking at the impact of this total shift, the regional implications are becoming clearer as this transition unfolds.

When looking at Europe, it is clear that the continent is entering a renewed phase of exposure. It is directly placed in the path of a multi-chain stress situation due to its reliance on global LNG markets and its industrial sensitivity to petrochemicals and fertilizers. At present, the ARA hub remains a critical buffer, but it is increasingly functioning as a balancing mechanism rather than a stabilizing one….

The next fourteen days are therefore not just another period of volatility, but a first and dangerous compression phase.

If nothing fundamental changes, such as stabilizing flows, easing logistics, and the return of confidence, the total system will move from stress into breach conditions. Not everywhere at once, but across enough chains to alter overall behavior. In such scenarios or realities, markets will soon stop clearing through price alone; they will clear through access. It is a fundamentally different system.

As I have said repeatedly in comments, I see the risk to food supplies as far more imminent. Shortages and famines are often not the result of crop failures but mal-distribution. How many food products are packaged in plastic? Go look in a store. It is pervasive. How many restaurants use plastic for carryout purchases? There is no way to move to alternative packaging quickly. How much many food items will simply not be produced due to lack of packaging? How many like meats will not get to market due to lack of adequate alternatives to assure adequate sanitation along the way?

Assume the brace position. Seriously.

______

1 From Arkady Bogdanov in comments yesterday:

Yes, I would like to flesh this out a bit more regarding Iranian AD, and share my thoughts. Admittedly, much of this is speculation, but I believe the logic is sound. We know for a fact that Iran possesses Buk, S-300, and at least a small number of S-400 systems, and that Iran produces a domestic analog of the S-300 (so they should have S-300s in quantity). I have only seen one video shared by the US that appears to have taken out an S-300 system (which could have been a decoy). So it seems logical to conclude that these systems are all or mostly all still intact.

These are all very capable systems, with the S-300 and S-400 systems being superior to anything the US has. I would also remind people that the Serbs shot down TWO F-117s, which had/has stealth capabilities superior to the F-22 or F-35, with an S-125 system, which is vastly inferior to the Buk, S-300, and S-400.

We also know that all of the aircraft struck have been on the perimeter of the Iranian AD envelope, despite the US regime’s claim of air superiority and “bombing” Iranian targets. This contradiction is explained by the likelihood that the US is only flying aircraft around the leading edge of the Iranian AD envelope, and this is supported by all of the aircraft spotters in the UK showing photos of B-52’s and B-1’s being loaded exclusively with cruise missiles. The stocks of these are very obviously dwindling-many have discussed this, so this is forcing the US to use other means of delivery, and that likely why we are suddenly seeing more aircraft being hit- they are likely trying to lob guided, gliding JDAM bombs into the border regions of Iran from the edge of the Iranian AD envelope. The pesky thing about AD envelopes is that they are hard to map, shift as AD is moved tactically to prevent targeting, and is also affected by atmospheric conditions.

Now I would point out several things. The better AD systems are vastly more valuable, and given their longer ranges, are likely to be sited farther into the Iranian interior. It is also well known that, while not impossible, it is more difficult to intercept missiles, so given the value and limited number of these AD systems plus their lower effectiveness against missiles, they are likely keeping them hidden, in reserve. Remember that we (and Iran) know that the US has a very limited stockpile of standoff weapons (which again, are difficult to intercept), so it makes logical sense for Iran to keep its most expensive, most limited, and most effective AD systems in reserve for higher value targets that Iran has greater confidence that they can bring down with these systems to become available – When the US depletes it’s stockpile of standoff weapons, it will be forced to use high-value aircraft, and if they want to penetrate deeply into Iran, the US will have to use it’s highest value aircraft- B-1’s and B-2’s, as these are the only aircraft that have the range for that.

So logically, if you are Iran and believe that once you reveal your best AD to American ISR, it is likely to be targeted and destroyed, it makes sense to hide it until you have targets that are a worthy trade for the loss of these systems. Iranians have shown us that they are very shrewd and capable thinkers, so I believe that they are keeping these systems hidden. I think that the evidence that we have available plus the above logic suggests that these systems are lying in wait for a time when they will be most effective, and when high value targets become available (and when it comes to value, a bomber far-outstrips the value of a fighter or ground attack aircraft- even an F-35).

Oh, and speaking of F-35’s, it looks like Iran may (I stress the “may”) have gotten one. There are photos of aircraft debris in Iran that some people have identified as components that only exist on the F-35, along with insignia for a unit that was recently created which has only ever flown F-35’s. I’m not an expert on those matters by any means, but they appear to make a pretty good case (this discussion is all occurring on twitter).

And an extra: If you have a Twitter account, please follow this poster, if nothing else on general principles:

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368 comments

  1. Ben Panga

    Re: the “Qatar asked for safe passage, unconfirmed” bit

    Marandi yesterday (w/Nima) said two Gulf states (excluding Oman) had called Iran to make agreements on safe passage. Said he knew who but wasn’t sure if he was allowed to share it publicly.

    Iraq and Qatar then?

  2. Ben Panga

    Today’s episode of “UAE’s curious vulnerability to very accurate debris “(Guardian blog)

    Operations at petrochemicals company Borouge’s factory in Abu Dhabi have been suspended because of fires that started by falling debris after successful interceptions by air defense systems, but production at the plant has halted.

    The plant is in Ruwais, near the UAE’s western border with Saudi Arabia. It is a joint venture of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. and Borealis of Australia.

    Authorities in the UAE capital said on Sunday no injuries had been reported, according to Reuters.

    1. eg

      If this is the result of “successful” air defence, then job done for those lobbing the offensive missiles and drones, eh? 🤨

  3. The Rev Kev

    I was wondering about the presence of C-130 transport planes but if the US sent in paratroopers, then obviously they are going to need a ride back home. Looks like it was a fully fledged battle in this area and it will take a few days to get a clearer picture of what actually happened. But the Iranians will be able to show destroyed aircraft to support their claims and we can see evidence of one C-130 plane. Whether the Iranians shot it down or the US destroyed it on site is irrelevant. All those destroyed planes and choppers are gone – and this was only one action.

    1. Samuel Conner

      The impression I got (but it was an AI summary, so perhaps hallucination) is that these were a C-130 variant that can refuel helicopters in flight. The special operators sent in would be retrieved by helicopter. C-130 requires a substantial airstrip to land, so would not be used to recover personnel in a situation like this.

      3. redleg

        Helicopters generally lack the range for recovery missions so (as i understand it- I was Army not AF) a C-130 is assigned to refuel them. The CSAR* team also generally has top and bottom cover (fighter planes, ground attack planes) assigned as escorts. There will be a team of soldiers or airmen in the helicopters to rescue or recover the downed aircrew. How big this team is can be estimated by the size and number of the accompanying helicopters. A Blackhawk can carry a squad (8-12 men), a Chinook can carry a platoon (30 to 50+ men, depends on their kit). The C-130 isn’t going to land, and in CSAR ops will not be carrying troops. They’ll carry fuel and supplies that might be mission critical.

        *CSAR- Combat Saerch And Rescue

      4. GS

        I think the official story now is they did land two planes, carrying two helicopters. They did get stuck or were damaged in landing and had to call another for transport out. The helicopters were probably going to be destroyed and left behind anyway. They then destroyed the damaged planes as well rather than leave them intact. Some parts of the story remain murky. The rescued Col. apparently climbed a great distance on his own but now is in critical condition. Unless he was hurt in the rescue, that doesn’t add up.

        1. True Disbeliever

          The rescued Col. apparently climbed a great distance on his own but now is in critical condition. Unless he was hurt in the rescue, that doesn’t add up.

          Perhaps I misunderstand your information.

          Could the colonel have been injured:
          _ During or after ejecting from the colonel’s aircraft?
          _ During a crash landing of that aircraft?

  4. Tom Stone

    At this point can anyone seriously argue that Trump is sane?
    It’s too late to change course and this will also ensure extreme unrest in the USA and the deployment of troops in US cities.
    And that will get very nasty, very soon.
    Three or four months at the outside.
    Oh, and at least a few tens of millions of deaths from famine here and there…and the collapse of a number of States.
    Likely starting in the Gulf.
    Trump is corruption incarnate.

    1. RookieEMT

      It’s the beginning of the end of the west. Its a storm of insane leadership, reality denying media, and a complacent population.

      I’ve heard the theory that the media’s constant gaslighting and reality denial is deteriorating our mental health. People forcefully acting normal is starting to drive me crazy.

      So far I am handling this better than Covid.

      1. Steve H.

        Decompensation: In psychology, the term refers to an individual’s loss of healthy defense mechanisms in response to stress, resulting in personality disturbance or psychological imbalance.

        How Healthy Are Your Defense Mechanisms?

        Mature Defenses:
        Sublimation: When you’re feeling anxious, you do something constructive such as cooking or woodworking.
        Suppression: If you’re bothered by something or someone, you keep the lid on your feelings if letting them show would interfere with your goals.
        Anticipation: When you know you’ll be faced with a challenging situation, you try to plan ahead so you won’t be overwhelmed.
        Altruism: You derive true pleasure from helping other people—and if you couldn’t, you’d get depressed.
        Humor: You try to see the funny side of situations, even when they’re stressful or potentially upsetting.

        Intermediate Defenses:
        Displacement: Instead of showing you’re angry at a person who can get you into trouble, you shift your annoyance to something or someone less threatening.
        Repression: You are sometimes unable to remember unpleasant experiences that you’ve had in the past.
        Reaction formation: Rather than showing how you really feel toward someone, you show the opposite behavior.

        Immature Defenses:
        Projection: You feel that people tend to be mean or negative to you.
        Passive aggression: When someone bothers you, such as your spouse, you deliberately do something such as shrink their favorite shirt in the wash.
        Acting out: When you’re annoyed, you go out and do something impulsive such as going on a shopping spree.
        Denial: You constantly are told by people that you just can’t see the reality of bad situations.

        [Waldinger followed Vaillant: primary source]

        1. mrsyk

          I may have intentionally shrunk a few of H’s shirts but for a very different reason, heh heh.

        2. True Disbeliever

          @Steve H. at April 5, 2026 at 9:11 am,

          Thanks for this introduction and the link.

      2. ChrisFromGA

        Crikey, I owe an apology to Joe Biden. In his worst moment, he never made a public statement with such profanity. God help us all, Orange Julius has truly gone mad and he’s in charge of the armed forces.

        1. Wukchumni

          Teetotalitarian Dictator has gone off the deep end, not that anybody in the House or Senate majorities have really noticed that he’s drunk with power, despite not having consuming a drop.

          1. Lovell

            When you’ve lost MTG:

            “Everyone in his administration that claims to be a Christian needs to fall on their knees and beg forgiveness from God and stop worshipping the President and intervene in Trump’s madness,” Greene tweeted. “I know all of you and him and he has gone insane, and all of you are complicit.”

            “The Strait is closed because the US and Israel started the unprovoked war against Iran based on the same nuclear lies they’ve been telling for decades …

            “Trump threatening to bomb power plants and bridges hurts the Iranian people, the very people Trump claimed he was freeing … This is not making America great again, this is evil.”

            She reminded Christians that Jesus commanded love and forgiveness, even of enemies, and summed up that Trump “is not a Christian” and that his actions should not be supported by believers.

          2. viscaelpaviscaelvi

            A teetotalitarian dictator over here, a vegetarian dictator over there… Is it perhaps that food woke has been ruling the world behind the scenes since the beginning of time? Keep an eye on how JD Vance likes his communion wafers 🙃

            1. Jabura Basadai

              Abraham too, Yves –
              and the angel Gabriel was pretty important – helping Mohammad –
              catholics refer to an archangel Gabriel visiting Mary in Nazareth and telling her what her destiny was going to be –

              ‘Praise be to Allah’ stuck out blaringly –
              the irony and incongruity impossible to ignore – lunacy –

              i never listen to tRump speak, will read the nonsense if curious – but did watch in the twitter link with the downld of tRump’s breakfast speech – he was speaking only to republicans & cabinet cronies – his public mask and careful language discarded with glee – expected him to lift his leg and mark the podium – linked a few days ago in comments – the hour-long video was apparently mistakenly posted to utube and quickly removed, but someone copied it – the video was, to understate the obvious, a disquieting and horrific display – this guy is in charge? and these folks are clapping or laughing? – i could only take 10-15 minutes at a time – but kept going back to watch more – it was like watching a burning building – that speech and tRump’s tweet VC just shared – MTG is correct, he is evil – crazy evil – absolute nutcase –

              with the other nutcase, bibi, playing tRump like a Stradivarius –

              the disbelief, particularly of the predominance of ‘whistling past the graveyard’ attitude by 90%+ of those i interact with here in the states, and the speech and the tweet finally has me disquieted in the extreme – as Dylan once sang, “…if my thought dreams could be seen they’d probably put my head in a guillotine…”

              past the wondering – waiting for the boom now –

              will leave you Robbie Robertson’s “Showdown at Big Sky”
              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kebhBIoTb50

              Peace to all of you –

            2. Giovanni Barca

              Yes but the usual Muslim version of the Holy Week events is that another was crucified in Jesus’s stead and therefore neither death not resurrection occurred. The deification of Jesus is considered idolatry, the blame for which they blame the Christians not Jesus. They do buy the Virgin Birth and the second coming though.

              1. hk

                But, iirc, according to Islamic traditions, Jesus will return to Damascus, not Jerusalem, to judge the living and the dead, no?

                The thing is that, in a way, Islam is practically a Christian religion itself, closely related theologically to the monophysite doctrine that was declared heretical at the Council of Chalcedon–the first part of Shahada, the doctrine of Tawhid, is usually translated as “there is no God but God,” but that’s really more subtle than that: it’s rejection of the idea of a trinitarian godhead and the divinity of Jesus, which was the view of more extreme monophysites in 4th-5th centuries, who also happened to be strong in the Middle East. Even today, many Middle Eastern Christians belong to groups that broke from the Europeans at Chalcedon, although they call their doctrine miaphysitism (ie Jesus is of one nature, but that nature is both human and Divine, as opposed to the hard monophysite view that Jesus is of only one–human–nature, which Islam subscribes to.) How exactly monophysite Christianity is linked to the rise of Islamic theology is a convoluted, murky, and controversial topic, though. The linkage between ancient Middle Eastern Christianity and Islam in theological space is apparent in usage of various theologically central vocabulary to this day, however: the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, for example, calls itself the Ethiopian Tewahedo Church–the Amhara, the principal ethnic group in this church are Semites, notwithstanding being Africans, as is their ancient liturgical language, Ge’ez, from which the term Tewahedo comes from, and it means much the same thing as Tawhid in Arabic, even though the Ethiopian Church is miaphysite in its doctrine.)

          3. ChrisFromGA

            Just throwing this out there, how can Chinese President Xi keep his self-respect, let alone that of the rest of the world, by meeting with this clown in one month? It would be like allowing a meth-head to crash the Queen of England’s tea party.

            I know, I am sounding like a broken record on this. And, the summit has not been confirmed by the Chinese.

            1. juno mas

              Xi likely anticipates the total meltdown of the US political system in the interim. No need for preparation.

          4. KD

            “Allah” is the Arabic word for God. Associated with Muslims because the Quran was revealed by Allah in Arabic (according to Muslims), and Muslim ritual prayers are in conducted in Arabic. However, anyone praying to God in Arabic will invoke Allah.

            1. hk

              Or in Aramaic (I think it’s the Maronites’ liturgical language? Maronites are Catholic) or Maltese (which is closely related to Arabic–Malta is the most Catholic coubtry on Earth, or do I hear.)

              1. Giovanni Barca

                Chaldeans too (also RC) and Assyrians (Church of the East)
                use Aramaic liturgically.

      3. Es s Ce Tera

        It struck me – the POTUS is behaving like a Karen. Demanding, entitled, rage complaining, weaponizing privilege.

        And leadership of other countries are treating it as such, in the way most people have learned to calmly and politely handle a raging Karen in their midst.

        And Iran is doing to the Karen what everyone secretly wishes they could do.

        1. hereweare

          The film The Perfect Neighbor shows how hard it can be to calmly and politely handle a raging ‘Karen’.

      5. bertl

        He should be kept under observation in a well-guarded New York public psych ward. All the evidence suggests that he’s fallen so hard off his trolley he’ll never make it back on again.

    3. redleg

      Secretary of War Crimes Delerium Tremens Hegseth has apparently called for another mandatory meeting of flag officers this week. I don’t expect this to be uneventful like last time, especially given the recent firings of the Army Chief of Staff and head of Chaplains. I don’t have any insight as to what events might take place at the meeting. This does mean that no major military activity will take place while the generals and admirals are away from their commands.

  5. DJG, Reality Czar

    Shortages and famines are often not the result of crop failures but maldistribution.

    Indeed:
    https://www.ighm.org/learn.html

    What happened in Ireland. And note the figure about export of butter. Cash crops had more or less normal harvests that could have provided relief to the populace. But the market required sacrifices.

    The famines in India were also products of the “Sun Never Sets On” Empire.

    The current crisis is political. Which is why I repeat the sentence above from the main body of the essay. It is a political decision to starve people through sanctions, mismanagement of supplies, or destruction of farms.

    And watch for the excuses… soon to rain down.

    PS: “Reign.” It may be because I have been an editor for so long, but the mixup of reign, rain, and rein is now worse than it ever was. My question is if it comes from autocorrect. I also find it to be more of a young person’s mistake. For me, this is still more evidence that Trump isn’t writing his own twiXts.
    PPS: Glory be to God. Wowsers. I’m so old I remember when it was Slava Ukraini, Glory be to Ukraine. Yet living as I do in Torino, I won’t take Trump’s theology seriously until he writes Glory be to La Gran Madre di Dio.

    1. katenka

      I see rein/reign all the time too, and each time, it stabs me! I don’t see rain in the mix nearly as often, but I expect I’ll see it more and more as things continue to fall apart. In this specific case, my immediate gut reaction was that it was more somewhere in the range of a Freudian slip, with Trump invoking a reign of Hell rather than a (by comparison, at least, less drastic) tactical rain of Hell. What a nightmare all of it is.

    2. ISL

      Having lived a few years in Ireland, the local view is that it was a deliberate British genocide. That is a particular kind of maldistribution – however, no one would call the starvation in Gaza maldistribution. Please call it by its correct term – war crimes and genocide.

      Maldistribution suggests impersonal market forces (which will hit Africa and south Asis soon).

      1. jsn

        Market forces are always and everywhere social constructs.

        They deliver what economically dominant market shapers want. While they may kill at some remove, depersonalizing their victims, they are personally shaped by individuals with intent.

        Wage relations are as unnatural as missiles, and have proven again and again more lethal at scale. We are in the midsts of another of those episodes where “impersonal market forces” are killing millions while we point at the comparatively minuscule violence of those who resist the capitalist death cult. Genocide is a recognized crime, maldistribution is not, but no less intentional and no less deadly.

        1. fjallstrom

          In Late Victorian Holocausts, Mike Davis argues convincingly that it was the colonial system and laissez-faire liberalism that caused starvation upon starvation.

          A detail that has stuck in my mind is when during a starvation in India a relief collection is held. The British ban them from distributing food as it would prevent the market from running it’s natural course. It was a band aid on a gushing wound and it was banned.

          1. The Rev Kev

            During the starvation of Ireland, the Turks sent two ship-loads of food for charity and the Royal Navy was sent to try to stop them as it would make the British government look bad if they arrived.

  6. .Tom

    So much breathless news covfefe for one airman. So little accountability for war crimes. Epstein Class Values.

      1. Bill Carson

        I’m old enough to remember the made-for-tv movie, The Raid on Entebbe that aired the day after Christmas in 1976. 9yo me couldn’t have understood the concept of pro-Israeli propaganda, but nearly 50 years later, it is easier to spot.

        1. Bill Carson

          CORRECTION: Upon further digging, I’ve found that Raid on Entebbe aired in the US on Sunday night, January 9, 1977, on NBC, immediately following Super Bowl XI between the Oakland Raiders and Minnesota Vikings. The game achieved a 44 Nielsen Rating and 73% market share. The movie was a huge ratings success: seen by nearly 43 million viewers in the US that night. I have no doubt that it had a profound influence on the public’s perception of Israel.

          1. The Rev Kev

            Netanyahu’s brother was killed in that raid and I have often wondered if it was the wrong brother that was killed.

  7. ChrisFromGA

    I think it is at least plausible that the rescue mission failed, and Trump is lying.

    1. The Pentagon has not confirmed the story yet:

    The Pentagon has not publicly confirmed details of the operations.

    https://www.rt.com/news/637329-iran-war-strikes-pilot-rescued/

    2. There are lots of images of aircraft wreckage that appear to be genuine:

    https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/05/world/live-news/iran-war-us-trump-oil

    3. (Least controversial) Trump is a known liar, and has a motive to lie here.

    I agree that he would be taking a huge risk if the Iranians were to show images of the pilot captured and parade him/her around, but what if the pilot is already dead? As in, killed in the rescue operation.

    There are several possibilities. If we confirm that the lost C-130s and two helicopters are true. One is that it could still be true that no servicemen were lost, as they might have escaped before equipment was destroyed by the US to cover up the failure. If other helicopters that are not part of the story were able to evac rescue personnel, this part would hold up.

    But that is also consistent with a failed mission and heavy casualties.

    There is also the possibility that the pilot and/or other servicemen were killed on the ground during the rescue mission, and the area was hit by the US to destroy the bodies (making them unrecognizable)

    Note that to my knowledge, the identity of the lost person was never made public, so we’ll have no way of ever knowing if any of this is true or not.

    I do think it is possible the rescue story is true, but I think we also have to account for the possibility that Trump has literally gone mad and will do anything to shape the narrative and protect his own ego.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      I could see the US lying if the second pilot was dead. There were reports on Twitter which I did not include of the US bombing the “rescue” area heavily.

        1. Carolinian

          Tasnim Iranian site had a story alleging exactly that–saying that the US is trying to kill the airman to prevent a hostage drama.

          And re the above it occurs that from 50,000 ft ecological view the things we may soon lack are the very things that are often cited as killing the planet–oil, plastics and (sadly) overpopulation. It would be ironic indeed if AGW deniers like Trump are hastening the demise of the economic system they use as an excuse.

          Of course the rest of us, who depend on said economic system, won’t be able to take much satisfaction from that. Still we Americans at least can manage to live much poorer than we do now. We once did.

          1. The Rev Kev

            True that. But in earlier times Americans were more independent minded, could fix things at home, got by with much less and got more out of it. And they had all sort of social bonds to support them like family ties, unions, clubs, hobbies, etc. Since the onslaught of neoliberalism, a lot of that has broken down. My generation learned not to waste stuff but my kid’s generation throw stuff away like it is going out of style. I fear for the future if we get a Second Great Depression in the cards as most people will not be able to cope.

            2. david lamy

              Yes, my grandparents were much more self-sufficient than me who is now in their age range.
              My grandfather showed me how to glaze windows, repair sash cords and do basic plumbing repairs. For fun, we made an electric motor together. He had a secondary school education.
              My grandmother and her friends met for quilting bees in her basement. She routinely canned vegetables from the garden.
              They knew and socialized with their neighbors. They had community.
              We now have nothing of the sort.

          2. Skip Intro

            Only Nixon could go to China,
            Only Trump can clear the Persian Gulf of US bases.

            P.S. The statements about the A10 say the pilot ejected safely. Aren’t there other crew members on those gunships?

        2. ddt

          I wonder how other airmen feel if bombing of rescue areas are a part of the operational plan.

      2. vao

        The reports about what happened are confused, but various angles indicate that a genuine battle took place during that search and rescue operation:

        1) Report from the USA side (Fox News): the pilot has been exfiltrated, but he is in a “critical condition” and several other soldiers were wounded.

        2) Report from the Kurdish side: several wounded and killed amongst the Basijis who rushed to find the pilot. Deaths officially confirmed in Iran.

        3) Heavy aircraft losses during the rescue. On report states one C-130 and two MQ-9 lost; another states two C-130 and one MH-6.

        My guess is that the stranded pilot found himself in the middle of a battle between his rescuers and the Iranians rushing to capture him, as a result was severely wounded — or perhaps killed (with the USA waiting to have brought him to safety to announce he died from his wounds). Each side sustained several further casualties during the fight.

        1. ChrisFromGA

          Thanks for that, the Fox link impeaches Trump’s statement that the pilot was “safe and sound.”

          Where there is one lie, there are usually more.

              1. Lil’D

                Oh, I disagree. I don’t think he cares about the truth value of his statements, just the persuasive/ manipulative value. I think he’s a bullsh***er rather than a liar.
                We see so many lies because the truth is not helpful for his purposes…

        2. hk

          Quite a few people on Xwitter are calling this a repeat of the Bat 21 situation, late in VN war. Back then, the person involved was also a colonel, the head of an electronic warfare unit who was the “navigator” of an EW aircraft with highly confidential information. He wound up landing in the middle of an area swarming with VPA soldiers (it was during the Easter Offensive when NVN was going for the jugular) and the rescue attempt was extremely costly. Given the value of the information he had, I could imagine that USAF might have decided to kill him (the Bat 21 incident) rather than have him be captured if the operation was unsuccessful. Trump let some of the info out inadvertently by revealing the rank of the airman in question. A lot of things are going on here and I’d be inclined to think, unless the WSO comes out and tells a convincing story, that the real WSO was captured and sent to Russia or China in exchange for military and political favors and will never be seen again or has been blown to smithereens by US bombs and will likewise never be seen again.

      3. Arkady Bogdanov

        Figure I will share my thoughts again for what they are worth. This is the only explanation that makes sense in my mind- I will again grant that this is speculation. A Little Bird helicopter only has a range of about 250-275 miles, depending on how much weight it is carrying. Little Birds are the chosen transport method for Tier one SOF units. They are highly maneuverable, lightweight, have high visibility for pilots, etc. These aircraft are used for raids- very quick in and out, but due to their short range, they have to be staged from relatively close to their target. 2 Little Birds can fit into the cargo hold of a C-130. The Little Birds were likely inside the cargo holds of the C-130’s when the C-130’s were shot down- and given a quick glance at the C-130 props, it seems clear that they hit the ground while rotating- this suggests a crash, not a demolition (plus you can see what look like shrapnel holes in the control surfaces that are remaining in photos). This would also explain why the helicopter debris is intermingled with the C-130 debris.

        We know that Trump was talking about staging an operation using a constructed (or existing) airstrip to steal the uranium, and to my absolute amazement- it looks like they tried it. The C-130’s were not there for the F-15 crewman. This is even more apparent when we look at the reports showing that the rescue beacon activated by the F-15 backseater located him around 120 miles away from the airstrip that the C-130’s were found at. Now this does not mean that this was all not related. The C-130’s were not there for the F-15, but there is a pretty good chance the F-15 was there for the C-130’s.

        The F-15 was probably tasked with clearing the ingress/egress route for the SOF mission brought in by the C-130’s. Likely this included AD suppression and possibly ground attack runs against forces defending the target assigned to the SOF guys.

        So the F-15 likely was part of the mission, and was hit while the C-130’s were already inbound. Regional command may or may not have known the F-15 was downed, but would have noted the lost contact. Likely there was enough pressure to continue the mission even if there had been confirmation the F-15 was hit by AD.

        Now the Blackhawks probably were the Combat Search And Rescue mission. They may have all been assigned to find the F-15 crewman, or they could have been split between recovering the F-15 crew and trying to assist the forces at the airstrip (again- command would see a loss of contact with the C-130’s, but would likely not know actual status or if there were survivors). The A-10 was likely providing close air support for the CSAR mission, as having close air support is doctrinal to CSAR. The drones were likely providing real time ISR and possibly close air support also.

        In short- this must have been a real furball. It’s hard to make sense of, but the above is the only explanation that makes sense to me. Now many people are wondering were the SOF contingent is. The C-130’s would have had to have been carrying enough fuel for themselves (return trip) plus fuel supplies for the Little Birds, and the weapons stores (small arms, grenades, small diameter rockets, etc) when the C-130’s went down- fire and detonation would be most probable, and the aircraft crews and SOF troops were likely incinerated pretty much instantly. Likely not much left for remains given the likely volume of flammable fuel and explosives on board.

        Just my thoughts.

    2. Sibiriak

      05:25 GMT : Two US transport aircraft used in the rescue of a crew member from a downed F-15E fighter jet inside Iran were destroyed on the ground to prevent sensitive equipment from falling into Iranian hands, The New York Times reported. –RT

      1. ChrisFromGA

        So that part is confirmed, but what were they transporting?

        Equipment, or lots of troops? If the latter, then a few rescue helicopters wouldn’t have been enough to evacuate personnel.

        Many parts of Trump’s story don’t add up.

          1. ChrisFromGA

            That might make sense – sacrifice the C-130, and evacuate the rescuers in the mini-copters.

            1. hereweare

              I think the mini-copters were reported as being for the search. It sounded like they wouldn’t have the range to get anyone out of Iran, unlike some of the other aircraft sent to the site.

          2. begob

            Daniel Davis highlighted the detached tail of one of those mini-helicopters in the debris of the large plane(s) – he reckoned it bore marks of shrapnel or small arms fire.

        3. redleg

          The bigger question is what in the wide world of sports were two C-130s doing on the ground in Iran?
          Which begs the questions:
          1.why couldn’t they get back into the air, and
          2. How did those crews get back?

          Destroying damaged equipment in combat is normal. That’s not a big deal. That they needed to be destroyed is a very big deal. Two C-130s lost is going to cost a colonel (or several) their career.

      2. Yves Smith Post author

        Right. The stoopid, it burns

        If they were used in the rescue, how could they have been destroyed? How did they get out? And why sacrifice valuable transport planes?

        1. ChrisFromGA

          To my admittedly inexperienced ears, having no military service background, that part sounds the most plausible (sacrificing the planes to save one pilot).

          I can see Trump yelling at the generals to “do whatever it takes” to rescue the pilot, including taking disproportionate risks and sacrificing material. We also know that he has a purge underway to get rid of any generals who aren’t “yes-men.”

          What isn’t consistent is saying that there were no personnel losses among the rescuers. You don’t send 2 C130-s to land in the desert on a rescue mission to carry a bunch of tanks or heavy equipment. That sounds more like lots of troops. If there was a firefight, a lot may have been KIA or WIA and left behind, or as the Right Rev Kev wrote, the Hannibal Doctrine is now in play.

          Anything for a media victory?

          1. pjay

            I agree. I understand the “fog of war” and propaganda on all sides, but this story as “reported” (actually regurgitated from a Trump tweet) makes no sense to me. I’ve watched a half dozen mainstream reports from various sources, including Fox and MSNBC (or whatever it’s called now). First, so far *all* the information reported appears to be from Trump’s tweet as far as I can tell. There were no other sources cited in the clips I’ve seen. Second, the same story is everywhere, saturating mainstream news sources and youtube. Third, some of the stories mention “dozens” of aircraft” and one mentioned “hundreds” of personnel involved. For one lost airman? Then there are the 2 C-130s “landing” in the desert (or on an abandoned desert runway?). And so on.

            Regarding your last sentence, I’m waiting for a Jessica Lynch moment. Certainly Trump will insist on parading the rescued airman before the cameras if he actually exists. As with Jessica’s daring “rescue,” the truth will trickle out long after the fact, if at all.

            1. ChrisFromGA

              The longer the Pentagon stays silent, the more suss this becomes, IMO.

              Of course, Trump is CoC and can order them to make a statement. I’d be surprised if they stay silent longer than a few more hours.

              1. Wukchumni

                Nobody has mentioned it yet, but the C-130 remains look similar to the EC-130 lost in Operation Eagle Claw back in 1979.

                1. The Rev Kev

                  The thing to watch for is to see if any in the media compare this operation to that of Operation Eagle Claw back in ’79 in the next few days. I suspect that they will dummy up about the whole thing instead.

                2. Bill Carson

                  I was waiting for someone to mention that. Trump must be beside himself knowing that his rescue mission failure in this war is so much worse than Jimmy Carter’s.

          2. TheMog

            It used to be the case that pilots were considered more valuable than planes, because it was possible to build new planes faster than train new pilots.

            Of course, that was back when the West was able to build stuff, and build it quickly.

        2. hereweare

          Used as part of the rescue mission. Personnel evacuated by other means. Which is not to say Iran didn’t destroy them; just that the US doing it seems plausible.

          Why sacrifice valuable transport planes? – Why start a war that gives Iran control of the strait and pushes the world toward recession in the first place? And perhaps inspired by US helicopters being pushed into the sea in Vietnam when the enemy eventually went home.

            1. jp

              There are literally hundreds of aircraft, including C-130, C-135 and variants thereof at the Davis-Monthan Boneyard in Tucson, Ariz.

              The page describes the level of storage, and at least some are likely to be at Level 1000, which is ready to be recalled to service semi-immediately. I’m sure quite a few of the support aircraft (tankers, etc.) are at 1000, but I’m willing to be corrected by anyone more knowledgeable than me. ISTR seeing reports that two C-130s have already been recalled from there in the last couple of days.

        3. Vodkatom

          On the narrow question of why sacrifice valuable planes for one pilot, or risk more lives to save one, this seems baked into the culture of the Air Force.

          I heard someone on x/Twitter compare this to Bat21 story here. This was a rescue in Vietnam they made the movie about. While the effort and risks of such rescue might seem irrational from an accounting perspective, it looks like the guarantee that downed airman will be brought is considered of utmost importance. The wiki link has lots of interesting details on this.

          1. The Rev Kev

            Vietnam was a different situation. Those US pilots parachuting down into Vietnam were often experts in doctrine, had experience with nuclear weapons, had full knowledge of US strategy & tactics in Europe, etc. For the Russians this was like mana parachuting from heaven and more than a few were transferred to Russia for interrogation because the Cold War was still in full effect and these men had vital information for Russia’s survival. I imagine that they were eventually liquidated and the US government never asked about them but wanted to put the war behind them.

      3. lyman alpha blob

        The link I posted below mentions the same, along with the Iranian claim –

        “On Sunday, Iran’s state TV aired a video showing what it claimed were parts of American aircraft shot down by Iranian forces, along with a photo of thick, black smoke rising into the air. The broadcaster said Iran had shot down an American transport plane and two helicopters that were part of the rescue operation.

        However, a regional intelligence official briefed on the mission told The Associated Press that the U.S. military blew up two transport planes due to a technical malfunction, forcing it to bring in additional aircraft to complete the rescue. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the covert mission.”

        They blew up their own planes due to a “technical malfunction”? The Iranians are only claiming one transport but the US says two. The fog is thick on this one, but unless we have more info that sheds new light, I’m going with Occam and the Persians on this one.

        1. LaRuse

          “Technical malfunction.” US officials have been using weasel wording like this all along. Remember when the F-15 was shot down and the initial denial from CENTCOM (or some source like that) was that “all our planes are accounted for.” Well, accounted for means we know where they are – and they knew one was downed in Iran, thus it was “accounted for. A technical malfunction can easily be weasel words for “engine failure due to enemy fire.”
          I genuinely thought the F-bomb DJT post was a fake due to the “Praise Allah” included therein, but since the evidence suggests it’s real, I am genuinely anxious that we will see nukes come out in the next few days.

          I am grateful for Yves and this community,. Take care of yourselves. Hydrate. Get sunshine. Visit nature or a tree or anything not your screen, if at all possible. There are hard times to come.

          1. JG

            Thank you, chase sunshine. I also savor every drop of rain here in the rural outback, PNW. Thankful for Yves, this community. Be well, all.🔥🐴❤️

          2. redleg

            “Accounted for” is not the same as present or operational.
            If you know two are destroyed, they are accounted for.

    3. AG

      I think it was Wilkerson among others who had warned of a scenario with a captured US pilot on Iranian TV, weeks ago.

      p.s. On the humorous sinde the downed pilot does remind me of the movie “WAG THE DOG” where it´s all part of the fake war story, because neither is there a pilot nor is there a real war. They even hire a team to write a song about the pilot which of course becomes #1 on radio stations, including a music video…

      Wag the Dog “The American Dream”
      1:56 min.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enH2igVo55U&list=RDenH2igVo55U&start_radio=1

      1. lyman alpha blob

        There’s a plot point in Neal Stephenson’s book Fall; or, Dodge in Hell where the nuking of Moab, Utah is completely faked. Military blocked off access roads to ‘ground zero’ so there would be no witnesses to the fraud and the interwebs were flooded with fake news and CGI videos. [This substory was about the only good part in what felt like an interminable drone of a book – not recommended!]

        Once again, it feels like authorities are using dystopian scifi as an instruction manual.

        1. Party at ground zero

          I didn’t finish it. The Minecraft/lord of the ring AI afterlife was soooooo boring. All the subplots in the real world in the book were more interesting, especially the curated internet. That is what NC is for me.

      2. caucus99percenter

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There%27s_a_Star-Spangled_Banner_Waving_Somewhere

        Other lyrics to this melody have been recorded by “Red River Dave” McEnery in 1960, called “Ballad of Francis Powers”.[11] This is a song about the American pilot, Francis Gary Powers, who had been shot down on a spy mission over Soviet territory and captured by the Soviets, who charged him with espionage and sentenced him to 10 years imprisonment; the new lyrics describe Powers singing “There’s A Star-Spangled Banner Waving Somewhere” in prison.

        1. AG

          Wilkerson I think mentions Powers.

          Odd that with those Americans who have lived long enough to really remember this still causes some kind of shame. That feeling is captured in “BRIDGE OF SPIES” which is about the swap of prisoners, Powers (+that student) for Abel (the KGB dude).

          Bridge of Spies Official Trailer #1 (2015) – Tom Hanks Cold War Thriller HD
          2:32
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBBuzHrZBro

          In the movie there is no singing only evil Soviet guards and KGB pestering poor Gary. It´s one of the weak points in the film which all over I still consider one of the best Spielberg flicks of his post-“Saving Private Ryan” phase. I know many younger audiences did not receive “Bridge” that well. Too old and political a story I assume…

          2. John Wright

            I remember someone suggesting that Francis Gary Powers of U2 spy plane didn’t hit the destruct the camera switch in his plane because he was too familiar with the CIA methods.

            As was suggested, the pilot of the plane was to hit the destruct switch and there would be a time delay to allow for the pilot’s safe ejection to occur.

            The person related that Powers may have suspected that the CIA had designed no time delay in the system, so the U2 destruct switch would also kill the pilot before they could eject.

            I suspect that is plausible to many in the USA population.

            1. AG

              Intriguing point…wonder what Mr. & Mr. Cohen and Mr. Spielberg would have said to a suggestion to include that into the screenplay… in the movie Powers gets a fake Dollar coin to “spend” i.e. use the poison needle hidden in the hollow coin in case the U2 is in danger of getting captured.

              In fact the idea that the US doesn´t care that much about the human beings flying their gear in the movie is expressed by that – alas, evilishly droning Soviet commissar pressing Gary to reveal intel.

              I am pretty sure the creators of the film know very well the dark truth behind the CIA missions but also know that there are things you just do not express in a major motion picture.

              And there are also those not unsound principles of how to conceive these screenplays by avoiding overcomplication which on the other hand makes you buy into simplification and tropes affirmative of your ideological surrounding in which you operate and in which you have to make a living.

              If e.g. the CIA were painted realistically evil in this particular example it would put too much emphasis on this one element within the whole narrative which has a very different main storyline.

              Also it would make it difficult to portray Powers´s moral qualms who tries to remain loyal to his beloved country and yet not get killed. With the CIA being objectively a bad actor that would be less compelling (and lessen the patriotic vigour of the entire piece.) And I assume many “Cold Warriors” did buy the Cold War nonsense for a long part of their lives.

              Btw Powers died in a helicopter crash in 1977 when working for K-NBC (after leaving Lockheed where he had been a test pilot) as a helicopter pilot, during an assignement about the bush fires in Santa Barbara.

              He is – despite all the qualms over the 1960 crash and capture – buried in Arlington.

      3. Mikel

        I was thinking about Wag The Dog and the “Good Ol’ Shoe” story line the other day.
        Was wondering if it would get to that.

  8. Yves Smith Post author

    All done! Only a few updates but important. If you arrived before the time of this comment, please reload this page and re-skim.

  9. Bugs

    Anecdata from France via the produce guys in my supermarket. I noticed the fruit and vegetables a bit spread out and the selection a bit odd, with some exotic fruit that we don’t ordinarily see out here in the boonies. I asked where the usual Pompadour potatoes (sold by weight) were. “We’re really in a bind because things end up sitting on the loading dock in Rungis or in between and we get something we didn’t order because they mix it up and trucks don’t show up”. I said that I think things are going to continue to degrade and he replied, “no doubt”. I bought a 5 kilo bag of local spuds that will do just fine for my steak-frites. One tiny benefit – I got some lovely bergamot lemons from Italy, and some 45 day aged strip steak (they never have this there).

    1. Revenant

      Up in the Alps this week. Supermarket prices are more astonishing than ever, even for a ski resort.

      Two bags of shopping comprising three courgettes, a big red bell pepper, a handful of shallots, a bulb of garlic, a kilo of new potatoes, some limes, a mango, some tomatoes, olive oil, salt, pepper, herbs, a baguette, a packet of cut salami, some fresh pasta, four yoghurts, a couple of packets of biscuits, tea, coffee, a carton of milk, a carton of cream, a bottle of orange juice, two bottles of cordial, a block of butter, two bars of chocolate, six loo rolls and two kitchen rolls came to over €200! I would have expected to spend around £50 in the UK before Covid.

      It’s obviously more expensive up at 2000m but still….

      And to add to Bugs anecdote, there are significant gaps in the fridges and shelves. Many cheeses, ready-to-heat gaufres, all but one variety of potato. There was plenty of exotic fruit though! Apparently can’t give it away.

      1. Yves Smith Post author

        Wowsers. I have been panicked about Thailand but EVERYTHING normal at the store (and it is a REALLY big store, I have never seen as much meat in one place as here). No price increases save on limes (which do swing around a lot in price over the year) and the fish the store prepares (they make a nice sea bass and sell it by the piece). But the filets were also HUGE, as in if anything cheaper by weight).

        1. AG

          Same here, on the other side of the globe…
          Of course this is true for citrus fruits in general, lemons and oranges have turned into luxury since SMO started.

          You pay less if you buy a pack of 1,5 kg of oranges than 1 or 2 separate ones which go for 3Euros per kg, if you seek out a more expensive place it quickly reaches 5-8 Euros.

      2. amfortas

        my youngest works at the pf chang in lubbock. he said all last week, they were out of the plastic to-go things, sent someone to sam’s club or whatever for the styrofoam clamshells…also ran out of chicken, and some other things.
        unknown if this is some local or otherwise discreet snafu or screw-up, or part of the coming darkness.
        as ive said, only thing i’m really lacking is solar for well pump and the fridges and freezers…so i can have a buffer to adapt.
        well…and i’ll be rather cranky without beer and cigs, too, i suppose.
        could prolly do with a lot more salt, too…for canning, smoking, etc…but everywhere stopped selling it in bulk a long while back.

        1. Laughingsong

          One restaurant and food truck proprietor here (even before the war started), includes a small discount on their ordering website if you bring your own containers for your takeaway… they give a minimum size needed. I have been hoping to see more places do this, so maybe the war will encourage this.

      3. AG

        Yesterday a customer wanted to buy five items of butter which is reduced to 99 cents this week but was allowed to only buy four. The cashier who is very good and generous just made a second additional process to add #5. But these things were unthinkable in a wealthy West German city before 2020 and Covid. Ever since this kind of thing has become known to the once oh so golden FRG, too.

      4. AG

        Yesterday a customer wanted to buy five items of butter which is reduced to 99 cents this week but was allowed to only buy four. The cashier who is very good and generous just made a second additional process to add #5. But these things were unthinkable in a wealthy West German city before 2020 and Covid. Ever since this kind of rationing is common to the once oh so golden FRG, the land of milk and honey and engines and chemical plants.

  10. vao

    Just a detail for those reading this eagerly awaited update on the war: the ARA hub means the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region, which has the largest European harbours, is a major European entry point for oil and gas, and hosts a number of huge petrochemical plants.

  11. lyman alpha blob

    Maybe someone with military experience can comment, but it seems very strange that the US would send in an entire search and rescue team to recover one pilot in the middle of a war. US sources are also now showing the planes Iran shot down. Originally from the AP – https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-member-missing-iran-shot-041018922.html

    Losing a few aircraft and likely many soldiers to rescue one person who would likely be released once the war is over does not seem like a very smart trade off. Unless of course your goal is to produce ‘content’ that can later be made into a Hollywood movie.

    Too bad Chuck Norris just died – who will play the Donald now?

    Stooopidest timeline.

    1. Curious

      The airman was a Colonel, which is a high ranking person. It’s the step below general and the rank is achieved after 18-20 years. So Military people making these decisions view them much closer to themselves that the enlisted young men they are sending into fight. Not saying it’s the only reason, but it’s not as common to send in this amount of resources for a private (even if the Spielberg movie would have you think otherwise)

      1. Aurelien

        It’s normal in air forces these days for pilots to be officers. After a university-level degree, officer and professional training, and flying training and conversion training, a pilot would probably be a Captain when, or soon after, joining an operational squadron. A Colonel would probably be the squadron commander.

      2. ISL

        If a colonel, then said airman likely had intel on the upcoming land invasion, as well as passcodes, frequency-hopping details, etc., that would be very detrimental to the limited US capabilities and options for the next few weeks. It’s also possible there is/was a high-level intel person involved on the ground.

        Recall, Ukraine has lost hundreds trying to retrieve some high-level NATO mucky mucks in Mariupol and other places.

    2. Samuel Conner

      Just speculating, but as there are reasons to think that losses of strike aircraft will continue (Iranian air defenses still functioning, US inventories of stand-off munitions declining), it may be necessary for the sake of aircrew morale to demonstrate US commitment to recovering crew who are forced to bail out over Iran.

      1. juno mas

        This risk analysis would indicate these airmen are prideful, but not prescient. Survival odds are diminishing every day.

    3. The Rev Kev

      The Trump regime would hate to see a US officer in captivity being offered tea on a rug like happened with those American sailors that were wandering in Iranian waters and were captured a coupla years ago. But it happens that you have major operations to rescue pilots shot down. I read of one case in WW2 where a US pilot was shot down and went into the drink not far from Japanese occupied waters. Both sides went to retrieve him but could not do so in the ensuing gun battles and more and more planes and ships were brought into this region to retrieve that pilot. In the end, a major planned US offensive was cancelled and the planes and ships for it were sent to get this guy which they managed to do. Was it worth it? Certainly to that pilot it was.

      1. Wukchumni

        A US Submarine picked up one George Herbert Walker Bush in the drink just off of Chichijima after his Avenger was shot down. He was fortunate in that 4 other airmen who were shot down and drifted to Chichijima were late, for dinner. The Japanese commander there ordered his men to stand and de-liver appetizers. Out of 9 airmen shot down, only Bush survived.

        George H.W. Bush rescued at sea during WWII

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=be3N4LaFekM

        https://allthatsinteresting.com/george-bush-cannibalized-chichijima-incident

      2. hereweare

        When U.S. submarine USS Charlotte sank the Iranian IRIS Dena near Sri Lanka around a month ago, it didn’t help find and rescue survivors ‘because of the risk’.

      3. JohnH

        John McCain lost his plane and was held captive for five years. His father was an admiral, yet he didn’t get saved. After Vietnam let him go, their loss was our loss…

        Times must have changed.

        1. hk

          Well, Patton sent a task force (either a weak battalion sized or reinforced company) to rescue his son in law from a POW camp that came to a disastrous end in early 1945: camp guards ran away, but there were far more POWs than expected. Nearby German forces came to the camp after the task force arrived and made trouble. Patton’s son in law was involved in negotiations to get the POWs a safe passage out, but was shot and badly wounded in confusion and couldn’t leave with the task force. The task force ran into more Germans on the return trip and basically got annihilated, with most of them winding up in the POW camp they came to liberate….all these just weeks before the camp would be liberated by the Allied forces (although not by Patton’s troops).

      4. Frank

        I did read that the rescue took place at a former air strip but could not see in on Google Earth or OpenTopo map. I’m guessing that the pilots are trained on how to behave and what to do to improve the likelihood of rescue by behaving according to some training and everyone knows the things to do that can enhance the odds of rescue

        I don’t know what the circumstances were, but if I had been the Iranians I would have taken his beacon and sent the pilot somewhere safe. I would then have given the beacon to a person on foot and have them then set about wandering a believable path taking several days till, low and behold, I came upon an abandoned runway. What luck!
        Then I would have the decoy just find a comfy spot in one of the buildings and wait to be rescued. Surely the people following the beacon would be cautious, but, gosh! this does look like the most wondrous luck. I mean, this guy wandered around for several days and is not stationary. It’s gotta be him! And set about planning the daring rescue.

    4. Pilot Paul

      Read about “Bat21-B”. Shot down Easter Sunday, April 2, 1972. Eleven men killed and five aircraft lost in the SAR. In hiding he was informed of six deaths. He told the rescuers that he was going to surrender to stop the loss of his fellow troops but they talked him out of it.
      This is not unusual.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rescue_of_Bat_21_Bravo

      1. Vodkatom

        I missed your comment and duplicated this link above. The psychology of those in CSAR is something else. It does make for good movies. But it’s hard to understand risking one’s life for others in the “individualist” thinking of the west. From this war alone I’ve heard lots of commentary about sacrifice in Shia culture. So much will come from these ways of thinking that we can’t predict.

      3. hk

        From what I read afterwards, I don’t think he would have been allowed to surrender: he was the top guy in an EW unit eith a lot of highly confidential information.

    5. Nashanull

      I wonder if it was seen as an opportunity to test run a ground invasion. If that Kurdish reporting on Twitter in the links is accurate, the US set up a perimeter with air fire, dropped soldiers in, executed the rescue, and killed a lot of Iranians without American soldiers being killed.

      Obviously that’s not indicative of a true capture and hold territory effort which would likely be catastrophic, but I fear it will have convinced Trump that ground operations are feasible.

    6. Yves Smith Post author

      This makes more sense than what we are being told….which does not make it right but at least plausible:

      1. Revenant

        It has been pointed out that the site is just south of Isfahan, a major nuclear industry site for Iran, and reported that Israeli figures are claiming involvement. Obviously, on waifu-war-twitter, not MSM!

        So the implication is that it may have been an attempt / practice at “rescuing the uranium”.

        The site has been described as an abandoned agricultural airstrip. In rocky country in a drought, it was unlike to be muddy. So the C130’s got struck, not stuck! Other chatter suggests it was refuelling two helicopters and it was very vulnerable at that point to even rifle ground fire.

        What is least believable is that after all the claims of soft terrain, they called in THREE more aircraft and magically none of them got stuck too.

      2. ISL

        Scott Ritter and Larry Johnson, on due dissidence (now), argue this was a raid on a nuclear site that was aborted into the rescue, and also that the Colonel was someone who could not be allowed to be captured. A JSOC raid that went bad.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mn_Jvl7rX4M

        They also note that it was Israelis who gave the info on the landing field quality.

        1. ISL

          At the end of the conversation, Larry concludes that this was the planned land raid, conducted after the markets closed on Friday, and it went very wrong. And that the immediate (while the raid was ongoing) Iranian missile attack on the Kuwait originating base would have disrupted command and control – the term used was “brilliant strategically” on the part of Iran. I wonder if Iran received intel help…

          1. redleg

            Now this would put all the pieces into place. A CSAR Op didn’t add up at all, but a (the long anticipated) JSOC raid going CF not only makes sense given what info is available but makes sense given the reported and obvious state of planning/strategy for this entire war.

            1. Revenant

              More on this interpretation: realist war twitter has begun to claim that the F15 went down 100 miles from the supposed rescue site with the destroyed C130’s etc. That’s an impressive hike over multiple mountain ridges for a wounded airman….

              1. hk

                I think Ritter or Johnson basically said the colonel was not the WSO: the rank is too high. More likely, something was already going off the script and he was someone much more important on some other mission. Trump screwed up letting his rank out of the bag

  12. .Tom

    Yves > That is partly a concern about Iran still having air defense capabilities but also the distances involved, that it is not feasible for planes to go that far into Iran even if they wanted to.

    The last History Legends video you shared had detail about the planes that can be used with each main munition. Some of those planes have lots of range. If the US were confident that Iran has no air defenses then they could fly B-52s over Tehran. So I’m inclined to believe that the status of Iran’s AD is more uncertain than Trump previously reported.

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      Ah, that is helpful (and contradicts Wilkerson but he got enough into the weeds that he may not have wanted to discuss other option not being used now). But we are operating from VERY far away now. Did HL address the current basing?

      1. .Tom

        No and it’s something I’m curious about but we get little information on it. Presumably very secret.

        For example, we hear a lot of stories like “Israel did suchandsuch driving Trump to step up the escalation” but rather little about from where, how and with what Israel might have done it. For example we had in the past heard that US tankers are required to get Israeli war planes to Iran but that would depend on what type of Israeli war planes and where is the target in Iran and what munition and US/Israel knowledge (and confidence thereof) of Iran’s functional AD in specific areas.

    2. Anonymous 2

      I read recently that Trump’s chief of staff has been censoring the information supplied to him so that he only gets ‘good news’. That would explain quite a lot.

    3. RoadDoggie

      I was curious around the S-500 system deliveries we heard about recently as well. Those systems are designed to interdict the B-1, B-2, and B-52 I think. More will be revealed.

      I think I agree with you though, if the USAF was confident they would have already presented the plan and done an attack with B-52 overflights and “guided” gravity bombs. I don’t think the Orange Menace has seen an attack plan he didn’t like yet.

  13. Ben Panga

    I feel like Trump did not write this latest post on his Truth Social. Or he’s just levelled up his mental issues. It’s different from his usual. Yikes.

    Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      So he’s now moved it back a day? He could go on April 6. And he’s never respected his own dates anyhow.

      Mr. Market methinks will not like this hanging over his head on Monday.

      1. Ben Panga

        It keeps moving haha. How many different deadlines have their been?

        I get confused with timezones but I think the last 48 hours he gave (post yesterday) runs out 21:00 Monday Indochina time, which is 1830 Monday Iran time, and 10am Monday Washington time.

        He’s kinda painted himself into a corner. I don’t see how he can claim “negotiations are happening” again. Then again maybe he’ll come up with some new spurious bullshit.

        2. ambrit

          Bone spurious bills–t?
          Trump now is so much of a threat to the ‘West’ in general, I would not be surprised if the ‘East’ were working behind the scenes to keep him safe from “all enemies, foreign and domestic.”
          Stay safe, stack deep.

        3. Paradox of Unrealized Power

          I think this is a deliberate attempt to distract from him backing out of a large scale ground invasion.

          At th rate he is going, he will soon have to bring up Epstein to distract from Iran. :)

    2. DD GE

      My God, the wheels are really comin’ off the cart on this one, ain’t they ?

      Inseign in the membreign

        1. ambrit

          Indeed! Put a big red rubber nose on him and Trump does look like an Insane Clown, with Posse in tow.

    3. hereweare

      It looks like his style to me. Bombast, use of capitals, pride in war crimes, religious references … A couple of profanities, which I don’t usually see in his outpourings, but maybe he’s frazzled and/or/so taking different drugs.

        1. hereweare

          Yes, I noticed those, but I still think it’s him. I didn’t listen to his recent speech, but people say he was slow and slurring – and didn’t, so far as I recall, go off on tangents, which must be a first. I seriously suspect different drugs, by which I don’t (necessarily) mean illegal ones.
          White House Medical Unit gave controlled substances to ineligible staff, watchdog finds (first Trump administration)
          The report found controlled substances, including opioids and sleeping medications, were “not properly accounted for,” in violation of federal regulation. The White House Medical Unit used handwritten notes to track inventory for controlled substances, which accounted for frequent errors, the report said. The report found the unit dispensed Ambien without verifying patients’ identities and purchased brand-name Ambien, which costs 174 times more than the generic brand. The report said the medical unit also purchased brand-name Provigil, another sleep aid that costs far more than its generic counterpart. The White House Medical Unit also improperly disposed of both controlled and non-controlled substances, the watchdog found.

          1. Dr. John Carpenter

            I took this a a poor attempt at trolling also. Trump 1 could fire off some zingers but wow does Trump 2 have no juice in the tank. Sad.

          2. hereweare

            Could be he was having a dig at the Pope, who called for peace in his urbi et orbi speech today.

        4. hk

          I am curious if anyone in the religious world (not just Islamic) responded to this. This is Western Easter, after all.

    4. HH

      I think Trump has entered the Dr. Strangelove stage concerning the purity of bodily fluids. The man is clearly unhinged, and people in the White House need to remove him from office. This has gone way past the Biden pretense of mental fitness into mad king territory.

      1. Vikas

        Yes, since the start of Epstein Fury I’ve been wondering how bad it will have to get for the elites with power to remove him from power. This obviously won’t end in a bunker like it did a while ago in a certain European country

  14. Marx

    Amartya Sen proved that famines in the very least from 1925 forward were famines of maldistribution and argued with facts that the famines were purposefully created. see Sen A. Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation. Oxford: Clarendon Press; 1981. can be found in Internet Internet. He also proved the famines in India under British rule were of the same. See especially India during WW2.

  15. Louis Fyne

    >>>>The “reign” may reflect his king complex.

    idiot 30-something staffer typing as Trump speaks (Trump’s Twitter dictation has been documented on film, campagm vids). IMO, I’m not there. not that I’m defending trump. Grammar philistine hires other grammar philistines

    All least this latest idiot isn’t fond of ALL CAPS like the last one. Paging Strunk and White, forgive us for our linguistic sins

  16. The Rev Kev

    The thought occurs to me that if Trump can be show the extreme difficulties of holding a tiny patch of Iran to conduct a rescue operation that ended up with major aviation assets destroyed, then maybe trying to do so for an invasion of Iran or one of its islands would be even a bigger mess resulting in major losses. If somebody actually pointed that out to him he might listen. But this is Trump we are talking about and he will likely just fob it off and fire the messenger.

    1. Rolf

      I almost deleted this comment, as it’s so f****** depressing. My sense is this: given all his universal deceptions, his visceral hatred (fear) of Iran and Iranians, his forsaken opportunities of a diplomatic exit, the potential exposure of sexual crimes (assuming Mossad kompromat exists, as even diehard MAGAs won’t forgive rape of middle schoolers), his greed, his inability to deal with personal failure, his drug use, his gross insecurity, paranoia, etc., etc., all of it, that unless he is physically removed from power (which the Senate will not do in time), he will continue this war regardless of losses (and which will be hidden for as long as possible).

      He will continue, up to and including the launch of nuclear ICBMs, which IIUC he can do without intervention (manly man evangelical Hegseth would presumably be all in). Barring a fatal heart attack or other mishap, or decisive US “victory”, I’m now convinced that nukes are how this conflict “ends” if Trump remains in office. Trump must continue the war until the last American or Iranian: Netanyahu will ensure it, and Netanyahu wants Iran and its people, along with the rest of the region, destroyed. Any country with a functioning, representative parliament would have removed Trump long ago. But this is 21st century America.

      1. Chas

        I don’t disagree with you, however it would be far easier for Trump to throw Israel under the bus and withdraw from the war. That might even save his presidency, inmho.

      2. frank

        He and his donors are getting wealthier.
        That might be a reason he was selected to run for president.
        Americans voted for “The Apprentice” for president.
        Ukrainians voted for “Servant of the People” for president.
        Seems that many people believe in fairy tales.

      3. viscaelpaviscaelvi

        I am sceptical of the theory of the war as a distraction from the Epstein Files, but I tell you one thing, if things keep going the way that they are going, pretty soon we are going to have the Epstein Files used as a distraction from this war!

  17. Will

    On impending shortages, I’ve been waiting and haven’t seen this discussed yet so probably not really a thing but I seem to recall that when oil prices spiked before the 2008 financial crises, there was a shortage/big price increases for asphalt (bitumen) because refineries tweaked their operations to take advantage of high prices for other products. A quick read on Wikipedia shows that naturally the Middle East is a big supplier of bitumen. A summer or two (or more?) of deferred road work probably won’t spell disaster and may not occur in North America with the tar sands in Alberta but as Yves points out hydrocarbons really are everywhere in modern life.

    Then again, America’s roads having been getting failing grades for years. Would even small delays in their repair and maintenance prove catastrophic?

    Also, non linear effects. I understand road work to be a reliable source of low skill employment. If budget stressed local governments cut back on that source of income for working people with all the other pain coming down the road?

    1. Curious

      We have 13 million barrels per day of shut in production. We’ve never had a supply shock that large and that sudden where the market has to balance downstream with pricing. We are going to see all sorts of things that make sense in hindsight but no one is predicting right now.

      1. jefemt

        Could you provide the source for that? I am skeptical….
        Here was my search of the internet…. I was unable to find anything to confirm the assertion. Thanks!

        “quantity of United States verified shut -in oil barrels-per-day”

        I was recently looking at the depletion rates on the Niobraara and Codell formations in SE Wyoming, and the production fall-off— it is impressive.

        1. converger

          I believe that Curious was referring to the global “we”, not a US-specific shortfall.

          The rapid drop off in fracking production is a different, often underappreciated problem. Among other issues, the US is massively ramping up LNG production capacity that is due to come on line by 2030, right about when fracked gas production starts declining.

    2. Samuel Conner

      Re: deteriorating roads,

      I bike locally and have for years used mountain-bike style lower-pressure tires on my bike; my joke is that one needs off-road tires to cycle on my town’s roads.

      The US preference for SUVs may have an up-side if the roads go to hell. They tend to be a bit higher off the ground than sedans and subcompacts.

      /s

      1. hereweare

        The roads where I am were all severely potholed twenty years ago, and generally much safer. Probably similar numbers of accidents, but at much lower speeds – and far fewer cars, let alone SUVs and ridiculously large pick-up trucks. Bicycles and motorbikes would collide and fall, and drivers and passengers would stand up and examine themselves and their machines for damage, usually light. Even collisions involving cars were usually relatively inconsequential. ‘Development’ has turned all that around.

    3. Ann

      Canada is one of the largest suppliers of bitumen in the world. Ask and ye shall receive.

  18. MicaT

    Assuming the video of the C-130
    Is real, it didn’t crash land at much speed. 2 propellers are not damaged enough and seem to be normal position, not what a hard uncontrolled crash would do. A propeller that’s under power is bent to heck when it hits the ground. Those two are not. And they are not feathered. The debris field is pretty small and is kinda round and not in a line like what happens when a plane plows into the ground. Points to a controlled landing and after that? Something blew it up.
    C-130s can take off/land from rough landing strips but to land in the desert, that’s super risky.
    The 2 versions it could be would be the refueling or gunship. The gunship is the close in support for ground troops doing this kind of mission. Refueling wouldn’t be close to where the rescue was needed. But we also don’t know where this was.

    What happened to the crew?

  19. Tito B

    [Expunged because AI content}

    Yves to Tito: You have been put in moderation. Posting AI is a violation of our written site Policies.

    Do this again and you will be blacklisted.

    1. Ben Panga

      >For what it’s worth Google AI…

      IMO it’s worth absolutely nothing. Why would a hallucinating chatbot have anything to add?

    2. HH

      This is classic American Apollo 13 alchemy: transforming a costly failure into a triumphant narrative of achievement. The politicians are convinced that the public is too stupid to grasp the facts of a losing war and can be entertained by daring rescue adventure stories entirely disconnected from the military facts of the conflict.

    3. ChrisFromGA

      Please, stop with the AI.

      It’s only as good as the inputs, and we know we have exactly one source – Trump’s statement, which has already been impeached.

      I would also suggest you tread carefully as our gracious host may not put up with this sort of slop.

    4. Samuel Conner

      WSJ has a web item asserting that two MC-130J aircraft were destroyed on the ground in this operation.

      The MC-130J Wikipedia entry says that 37 of these were made. 5% of the fleet attritted in a single operation; ouch.

  20. Tom Stone

    I would like to hear a reporter ask Trump ” Mr President, do you think you will be a serious contender to win the Nobel Peace prize again this year?”
    Trump would take that question seriously if it were delivered with a straight face and his response would be clarifying.

    1. Michaelmas

      What’s to clarify? He’s a psychopathic moron. Most everything out of his mouth is drivel, by definition.

      We know that.

  21. Cithano

    Another impact of plastic shortages : most palettes of goods come wrapped in generous amounts of polyethylene that allow for compact deliveries that use a maximum amount to space in a truck. You could still put boxes on trucks without it, but could probably not stack them very high because they would fall without the PE support. If PE were not available, I think shipping efficiency would be degraded.

    I take this opportunity to also thank everyone who’s been so dedicated to providing reliable information on this terrible situation. Sane and lucid.

  22. Safety First

    A few things.

    1. From the current RT feed (https://www.rt.com/news/637329-iran-war-strikes-pilot-rescued/):

    Trump has issued a fresh threat to Iran, warning of imminent strikes on key infrastructure while demanding Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

    “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the (family blog) Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah,” he wrote on Truth Social.

    I just confirmed by (shudder) looking at Trump’s Truth Social account. He posted this an hour ago, and there is no censorship in the original. I can’t wait for Solov’ev & Co. to pick that one up.

    He separately said he’ll be having a news conference at 1 PM to talk about the rescued pilot. Get your popcorn ready.

    2. Pars Today is thus far mum about the pilot; they have also claimed 2 C-130s and ONE helo – a specops MH-6 (tiny little thing that has no room for passengers, two guys have to ride outside on rails). They’re already posting wall-to-wall photos and videos from the actual spot where the C-130s were destroyed, and half the men in the shots are civvies, not military. There are no bodies or traces of combat visible of any kind, and the terrain around is completely open for miles and miles, so keep that in mind when hearing about any heroic specops fighting off hordes of Persians a la the (execrable) “300” movie.

    3. Here’s the thing about Bushehr. My view, but also something I’ve heard echoed from nuclear analysts.

    The most dangerous thing is not shells hitting the reactor, which they have not. The most dangerous thing is hitting the outlying buildings and electric interconnections to prevent either the supply of electricity, or the supply of water to the reactor. Basically, this type of reactor needs to be constantly cooled – as does the spent fuel, which is stored on site. This has to be done even if you shut down the plant (!!!!!!).

    If you lose the ability to constantly pump cool water in, and hot water out – a Loss of Coolant event – then in extremely simple terms, the fuel in the reactor heats up until it literally melts down (hence, meltdown) through the reactor floor – and I do not know if they’d built a trap in Bushehr, but that pretty much permanently puts the unit out of action anyway. Meanwhile, the spent fuel, if it is stored in pools as opposed to dry casks, has some kind of a heat-driven chemical reaction with the cladding (here, I am relying on others, as I’m a physics guy, not a chem guy), which can lead to a hydrogen explosion and a dispersal of radioactive material.

    This is exactly what happened in Fukushima. The tsunami knocked out the backup generators and all power supply, they couldn’t stop the LOC event at either the reactor or the pools, and the pools themselves were – stupidly – located on top of the reactor building (they are usually at “ground” or “basement” levels, for obvious reasons). That’s what exploded and spread radioactive material over whatever area. And this is why the early shots of the recovery efforts show them angling water hoses towards the top of the building – towards those spent fuel pools.

    My point is – we shouldn’t be un-worried about these strikes “near” Bushehr, just because the reactor building itself is untouched. Depending on where exactly the “near” hits are, the potential for disaster is much worse, because even if they’re not deliberately trying to hit Bushehr (yet), you hit just the right spot, and now it’s a race to restore power or water before things go completely pear-shaped.

    Ditto squared for any idiot-brained attempt to storm the place. Everyone will be focused on not hitting the reactor, presumably, but it’s the other stuff around it that they ought to be paying more attention to…

    …parenthetically, the Zaporozh’e plant has historically used dry storage for its fuel – basically there is a “park” of concrete cylinders right next to the plant in a separate lot. That’s where most of their fuel is, so far as is public. That means no continuous cooling needed, but the casks do break down, literally, every X years (typically assume 30, but mileage may vary) due to heat and radiation exposure, and have to be replaced, this, by the way, is the principal issue with long-term storage of spent fuel in a mountain somewhere as opposed to on plant sites. Also, too, firing a 155mm shell at one is probably a bad idea from a radiological perspective, though not quite as bad as leaving a pool of spent fuel rods without water supply for a few days.

    …and while looking something up for this post, I happily discovered that as of 2023, Indian Point moved all its spent fuel to dry cask storage. Still a problem, especially with the need to “renew” the casks every 30-ish years, but a lesser problem than before.

    1. jobs

      Hot steam oxidizes the zirconium in the cladding of the overheated fuel rods, releasing hydrogen.

      From https://energy.mit.edu/news/improved-nuclear-fuel-rod-cladding-might-prevent-future-fukushimas/:

      That hydrogen buildup was the result of hot steam coming into contact with overheated nuclear fuel rods covered by a cladding of zirconium alloy, or “zircaloy” — the material used as fuel-rod cladding in all water-cooled nuclear reactors, which constitute more than 90 percent of the world’s power reactors. When it gets hot enough, zircaloy reacts with steam to produce hydrogen, a hazard in any loss-of-coolant nuclear accident.

  23. JohnH

    “the widely expected ground invasion might attempt to capture Bushehr, which is a relatively accessible target.”

    And then? How would they support it with logistics? Or with equipment needed to remove uranium?

    1. The Rev Kev

      And would they have to fly in technicians to run the plant if the staff fled? And what would be the point? It would change nothing in this war. Unless of course Trump could go on TV and claim to have captured Iran’s nuclear materials as that was where they were hidden.

      1. ambrit

        From what I’ve read about the Iranian zeitgeist, those technicians would stay, no matter who is in “control” if only to protect the nearby populations from the worst case scenario.
        If the Izzys are involved, I would not be surprised if a “Radiological Incident” was not ‘manufactured’ at the site.

  24. Tom Stone

    Yves, please pace yourself.
    This is far from over and the information presented here is irreplaceable.
    If needed take a day or two off, visit the beach and have a couple of fruity rum drinks or a glass of white wine.

  25. ChrisFromGA

    Trump has now changed his story. The pilot is no longer ‘safe and sound’ as he initially claimed. Trump now characterizes him/her as ‘seriously wounded’!

    https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-says-missing-us-crew-member-from-downed-jet-rescued/

    Also, Politico frames the story as “Trump says … xyz.” No Pentagon confirmation, as of 9:45AM EST.

    More respectable media seem careful not to go beyond “Trump says …” in order to leave room for a retraction if the narrative breaks down over the next few days.

    1. hk

      was he even successfully rescued at all? I’m serious asking about this. The “information” coming out of Trump specifically and USG generally is such that nothing seems believable any more.

    2. JohnH

      Conflicting stories on rescue. Some place it in Khuzestan, others in Isfahan, 300 miles away. Photos show flat land. Some heroic rescue stories talk about the rescue taking place on a mountain ridge, others about the aviator hiding in a cave. No specific location or nearby town is named, though some claim many Basiji had been sent to a local hospital!

      All the conflicting details makes you wonder if the stories are just being fabricating, or if perhaps Hollywood is writing them for the news media in anticipation of future movies.

      1. JohnH

        I mean, Dien Bien Phu had only a few thousand people, but the Western media at least knew its name…

      2. hk

        I’d be skeptical if it’s Isfahan: too far for helicopters. Unless there were several operations going on and somehow they got mixed up together in a misinformation campaign, counting on grographic ignorance of the audience.

      3. ChrisFromGA

        The presser isn’t until tomorrow. Every good lawyer, cop, and politician knows you give yourself lots of time to get your story straight before you go to the press when the story is messy. The Pentagon is lawyering up.

  26. AG

    Mark Sleboda yesterday with Danny Haiphong:

    – Suggested 80% Iranian AD still intact.
    Also something, I think he has never done before, he quoted Postol re: PATRIOTS (which is common knowledge by now of course).

    – The US aircraft that might be within Iranian airspace he suggests are there not because of actual control but rather out of sheer desperation due to lack of adequate stand-off weapons. He also expresses some doubts that there are B-1/2s above Iran.

    -Karaj Bridge was not finished which is why they targetted it as bridges are difficult to destroy once they are complete (see Kerch)

    – Russia has just signed a deal with Iran to supply them with a huge number of MANPADS.

    He quotes “GoT”: “Madness. Madness and stupidity” re: any ground operations in planning.

    -TC 49:20 has the FOX NEWS excerpt from Tel Aviv right after a missile hit in the far distance.

    -China provides all the materials which Iran will need to carry on building e.g. drones.

    https://marksleboda.substack.com/p/black-friday-aftermath-as-us-aircraft

  27. funemployed

    I wonder how much latitude the gulf states truly have to limit or influence US military actions on their soil, even when faced with economic and civil devastation.

    1. JohnH

      “wonder how much latitude the gulf states truly have” Virtually none. Possession is nine-tenths of the law. It’s 100% when there is no law.

      Exactly what leverage do the Saudis have to prevent the US from doing whatever it wants? Unkissing Trump’s a**?

      1. ambrit

        The Saudis and Gulf States could cease buying US Treasuries. That would put a big crimp in US markets.

        1. juno mas

          Yes, but. A new Treasury rule requires participants to “rollover” their existing purchases. So escaping to other funds is diminished.

          1. True Disbeliever

            A new Treasury rule requires participants to “rollover” their existing purchases.

            Got a link to that rule, or a media story about it?

      2. jrkrideau

        Turn off the water to US bases? Better tactic in June but still if daytime temperatures are only in the mid-to-high 30’s C at Prince Sultan Air Base a person needs a lot of water.

    2. ISL

      Cut off the power, water, and utilities to the base, and control has been established. The US cannot bring in military to re-establish access without power, water, and utilities while it is engaged with Iran. It just doesn’t have the logistical support.

  28. KLG

    Report from the field. A bit off topic, but the GOPers (they are all Republicans, including the physicians except for one) I see at the golf course brought up politics the other day. I just listened. Wuk, you are generally correct about watching golf but playing it with some skill is very rewarding because it requires the solution of a 4-dimensional problem over the course of several hours. There is also a human engram in there somewhere, because the typical golf course is similar to the savannas of East Africa where our species emerged. So says an evolutionary biologist friend who is in the National Academy of Sciences ;-) The Current Occupant’s malign influence on the game is most regrettable.

    Summary:
    1. Competence in politicians is at an all-time low (no, they are very good at serving their masters but their masters are not their constituents).
    2. I don’t care, Republican or Democrat, you have to know what you are doing. None of these people seem to have that trait.
    3. The Current Occupant seems totally unhinged and reminds me that under Bill Clinton we had it pretty good. Bill Clinton!
    4. Having a president who talks in public like a sailor is embarrassing (apologies to all sailors out there; my father was one during the Korean War but he was much more creative with his expletives than the Current Occupant, especially when I heard him at the heavy chemical plant when I began working there).
    5. Iran was no real threat to anyone (this one surprised me).

    Someone also implied that ‘Operation Epic Fury” would be better described as “Operation Epstein Fury” but he did not use that term. I did not mention the locution comes from Max Blumenthal because not one of them has ever heard of Max.

    Two of my regular golf companions are financial advisors. They are figuratively “white knuckled” and “turning blue” because they are having trouble breathing at the moment. It was all I could do to not remind them that they now know how my scientific colleagues feel after having their livelihoods destroyed, but I only listen to politics on the golf course.

    1. Socal Rhino

      My impression of the people at our club is that 95% or more are Republican but none are MAGA. They care about tax cuts mainly.

    2. Wukchumni

      Billiards and golf are similar pursuits, except no upper crust male would be caught in the green felt jungle talking his schtick.

      A fine job of ferreting of where people are at mentally, KLG.

  29. Ann

    OPEC+ agrees in principle on theoretical oil output hike amid Iran war paralysis, sources say

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-debates-theoretical-oil-output-hike-amid-iran-war-paralysis-sources-say-2026-04-05/

    Tanker loaded with Iraqi crude passes through Hormuz, shipping data shows

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/tanker-loaded-with-iraqi-crude-passes-through-hormuz-shipping-data-shows-2026-04-05/

    Swiss army expects to start manufacturing military drones by 2027

    https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/various/swiss-army-expects-to-start-manufacturing-military-drones-by-2027/91208848

    Satellite firm Planet Labs to indefinitely withhold Iran war images

    https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/satellite-firm-planet-labs-indefinitely-withhold-iran-war-images-2026-04-05/

    India turns to ‘trusted friend’ Russia for oil, LNG supply as Iran war energises ties

    https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3349063/india-turns-trusted-friend-russia-oil-lng-supply-iran-war-energises-ties

    Australia given fuel supply assurances as plans in works for visit by Japan’s prime minister
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-05/japan-fuel-supply-assurance-sanae-takaichi-visit-planned/106532548

    Aid groups warn Iran war is hindering food and medicine from reaching millions

    https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-mideast-wars-global-aid-eae99c347456ced2989e9f253448b56b

    1. Es s Ce Tera

      re: Swiss army expects to start manufacturing military drones by 2027

      With toothpicks and the obligatory bottle opener/scissors?

      2. ISL

        yes, but without rare earth magnets, so they will need to be driven around and launched by rubber band.

  30. Ben Panga

    Fox Reporter retells 15 minute conversation he just had with Trump. First couple of minutes of this twitter video

    Highlights:

    If they don’t make a deal tomorrow I will blow up everything and take the oil.

    I’m pretty sure we will have a deal tomorrow (Monday)

    The Iranians killed 45,000 protesters in January. I sent them guns via the Kurds, but the Kurds kept them.

  31. Jason Boxman

    Trump is losing it

    Trump says: “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP”

    BBC

    His manhood can’t take this daily persistent demonstration of his impotence.

    Buckle up.

    If Trump makes good when the Markets are open, that’s going to be a serious sign of escalation as well, a break in symmetry.

    I assume he’s insulting Islam as well; great play for an American president.

    Oops, already posted above. So much can’t always keep track of it all. Sorry.

  32. ISL

    For a successful harvest, there are two fertilizer applications. The first is about now, pre-planting. The second application is a few months later.

    Today, farmers can choose the plant, but they then have a commitment after expending the largest part of the expenses for the year that they will have the ability to carry through, which includes the second fertilization – no matter the cost – or see a harvest that doesn’t pay for the inputs – i.e., bankruptcy. Perhaps the US will bail out its farmers (will the EU allow Italy?), but the US needs hundreds of billions to feed the insatiable maws of the MICC and Israel, so perhaps the US will not bail out its farmers, and they lose the farm.

    Hard choices – many will decide to sit this season out. Many farmers have a second job to carry them through, and they CAN sit it out – better than losing dad’s farm. And then there are the many farmers who lease their land.

    1. dougie

      Anecdata, but I live in a a once rural section of NC, now rapidly developing. My back yard is a 40 acre agricutural field used to grow soybeans, corn, and winter wheat. For the first time in at least 15 years, the farmer has prepared the field to grow tobacco. He told me he was afraid to plant soybeans due to market uncertainty, and he thought tobacco would be the best way to potentially turn a profit this year. He said he had ready buyers for his product.

      1. ambrit

        Good catch. I have seen an uptick in smoking “on the street” of late. Not vaping, but outright cigarettes and pipes (pipes!, though this is a small scale college town.) No deerstalker cap sightings yet.

        1. dougie

          Usually ,they fertilize when planting, and then a second application when plants are waist high. A lot depends on the soil. It’s not a high nitrogen requirement, but it’s not negligible either.

    2. Raymond Carter

      Here’s an easier choice for the farmers:

      start farming regeneratively and never use fertilizers or chemicals again.

      It’s never too late to start.

      1. ambrit

        Plus a complete restructuring of the economics of farming. Small scale equals small-er populations.
        The Jackpot arrives….

      3. redleg

        It also requires a fraction of the fuel, something like 40-80% less, and fewer tractor hours.

  33. johnnyme

    UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre is reporting an incident of a possible attack at the Khor Fakkan port facilities in the UAE:

    UKMTO WARNING 031-2026 UKMTO has received a report of an incident in Khor Fakkan Port, United Arab Emirates. The Master reports witnessing multiple splashes from unknown projectiles, in close proximity of his container ship, whilst alongside conducting loading operations. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO, whilst authorities continue investigating.

  34. Beachwalker

    So many real catastrophes, so many dire forebodings. In such dire times, one should always ask, “Qui Bono,” i.e., who are the likely beneficiaries? There are many great minds afoot who think the planet is dangerously overpopulated and no steps taken to address that issue are too extreme. When fertilizer gets low, those who have enough will profit handsomely. Same with energy, plastics, or anything else whose supply chains are being disrupted. In this very country our exalted president saw the Gaza genocide as an opportunity to build a new casino complex. You might say that Orange Boy is exceptional, but this “democrartic” county elected him twice.

  35. NerdButt

    I’m a nurse in a large metro safety-net ER. I can tell you that healthcare is already degrading in comfort and quality. We’re out (indefinitely) of LET gel, which lets us numb up big cuts before stitches. Without it, you’ll be getting injected lidocaine, which hurts like a b****. When that’s gone (it’s on shortage!) you’ll be rawdoggin them stitches.

    Sure, “it’s just pain” but especially in pediatrics that’s the difference between fully sedating a patient for a procedure versus quickly stitching it up at the bedside. It’s one med out of thousands at risk. Shortages have already been a problem, and it’s only getting worse. Pharmacy has no ETA on availability. It’s going to be like practicing medicine in a muddy ditch – it’s going to hurt a lot more and be a lot more risky.

    It hasn’t pierced the consciousness here yet, how bad it’s likely to get. I survived COVID as a bedside nurse; I’m not sure I have another crisis in me. I’ll keep helping as long as I can, I guess.

    A big “thanks” for the community here (and the hard work of the posters)!

    1. Wukchumni

      Nurse, wretched news from the outposts of health being in such a stitch, thanks for informing us!

    4. Huey

      I get what you’re trying to say, but a ‘muddy ditch’ feels a bit harsh.

      We don’t have gels/sprays where I am. Even then, I have had to assist with a toe amputation, on the ward, without any anaesthetic. This was over a decade ago. Obviously that this happens is horrible, but people do it because they’ll still have a chance to survive. It used to be a running joke for us, in school, that we got so much practice working without supplies/medications we could function in an empty lot in the woods. I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

    1. hereweare

      I expect Iranian negotiators, if indeed there are any, are completely unconvinced by this supposed amnesty/immunity.

  37. flora

    Per T: just a few more weeks. Just a few.

    I’m waiting for ” There’s a light at the end of the tunnel” talking point.

        1. redleg

          It’s a big beautiful train. Not like the Iranian trains, which are terrible terrible. Sad. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

  38. TheMog

    Some gasoline/diesel anecdata:

    – Out here at the eastern edge of WV, Diesel prices look stable (same $5.70-ish as last week), but regular gas has gone up by 30 cents over the course of the week, now usually around $3.99 with a couple of stations at $3.89
    – A member of a travel forum I’m on mentioned that they’re vacationing in South Tyrol and reported that some of the local gas stations are either completely out of fuel or have no Diesel. Wasn’t clear how widespread that was, though, and of course it’s anecdata from the Interet.

  39. Wukchumni

    Watching a landed fish flounder and toss about gasping for air is in some ways oh so satisfying, finally the despot gets it!

    But in a larger picture, this is an important turning point* in our country’s history and perhaps in the not so distant future, Chinese parents will hector their children to finish the food on their plates, because there are people starving in America.

    * Fourth Turning again, Fortress America 1945-2026 RIP

    1. hk

      Don’t forget the sun. Plenty of helium there, and there’s more being made all the time.

  41. EnigmaWrappedInBacon

    If one side in a war has survived losing a million soldiers and the other side goes into full blown melt down at the prospect of having one soldier captured, you either have to lie about or cover up fatalities or it won’t take long before public support for the war melts away even faster. At some point some Republicans might consider that Trump is going to tank their mid-term chances. And you won’t be able to convince voters that gas and other prices aren’t skyrocketing. Next week may be pivotal to the perception of this war.

  42. Ann

    Kuwait Petroleum Corporation reports ‘severe damage’ after Iranian drone attack – Türkiye Today

    https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/kuwait-petroleum-corporation-reports-severe-damage-after-iranian-drone-attack-3217522

    Labour to back down on foie gras and fur bans to ease EU trade deal | Exclusive: Animal welfare charities ‘bitterly disappointed’ that Labour plans to backtrack on manifesto commitments

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/05/labour-back-down-foie-gras-fur-bans-eu-trade-deal

    The poors and animals are the first to suffer

    India makes first Iranian oil purchase in seven years with no payment problems

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/04/india-makes-first-iranian-oil-purchase-in-seven-years.html

    Zelenskiy in Syria to meet President Sharaa, sources say

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/zelenskiy-syria-meet-president-sharaa-sources-say-2026-04-05/

  43. ISL

    After Israel hit the Iranian steel production, Iran hit Aluminum production in the Gulf – turns out 27% of non-Russia/non-Chinese production is in the Gulf. Of course, Western production depends on energy prices, so there are second-order feedbacks.

    https://www.aluminum.org/news/aluminum-association-responds-attacks-gulf-industry-infrastructure

    During COVID, there was a significant food storage loss from aluminum shortages:

    https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101746926-aluminum-shortage-%22has-no-end%22

    I had thought Covid19 was a major historical age transformation, but I think it was more of a prequake – a warning on the fragility of Western supply chains – and of course, expected in an empire’s twilight – nothing was done in the West – not even for N95 masks for the periodic revisits of Covid. In contrast, the rising powers, China and Russia, invested heavily in strengthening their logistics and supply lines (see investments in EVs, pipelines, solar, etc.). Europe has been busy cutting its supply lines (Russian gas? – nah).

    1. Jason Boxman

      It was very classy that the Biden administration left domestic N95 producers to die. Hospital GPOs can acquire N95s cheaper from China, so why have any domestic capability? And literally this is after the lesson that relying on a foreign supply chain for these is demonstrably stupid. Sigh.

      Instead the settled upon solution is pretending there is no Pandemic and no airborne transmission. Solved!

  46. N

    FYI the “rescue” operation actually took place very close to the Isfahan nuclear site. Apparently the US claimed they were searching the other area to trick the Iranians?

    Its possible that was perhaps the goal or one of the goals of the operation?

    As you said we will know more in a few days.

    1. mcsnoot

      Wasn’t there rumor of a “crazy scheme” proposed to Trump of removing nuclear material from Iran which would involve landing C-130s to freight the heavy material out

  47. Ann

    Professor Marandi was born in Richmond, Virginia. When asked if he would consider running for President of the U.S. he responded:

    “I am ineligible. My name is not in the Epstein files.”

  48. Wukchumni

    Sing a song of suspense
    A fog of war ruthlessly flogged
    Four and twenty warbirds
    Baked in a lie

    When the lie was opened
    The Persians began to sing—
    Wasn’t that video a dainty dish
    To set before the king?

    The king was in the counting-house
    Counting out his money
    The Secretary of War was purging
    Not really needing any urging

    Someone who looked like Chauncey was in the garden
    Banging out missives on Truth Social without reason or rhyme
    When along came comeuppance
    See me sometime

  50. ambrit

    It looks like ‘Fearless Leader’ has demanded destruction and gotten instead, Demand Destruction.
    We are screwed, and not in a consensual adults perspective either.
    Brace for impact indeed.

      1. ambrit

        He’s not averse to a Bit ‘o Coin. He is, after all, Master of the Blockhead Chain.
        I cannot get the image of ‘Fearless Leader’ as an Insane Clown with his Posse Comedia out of my poor tortured brain.

        1. hereweare

          Of beauty to the bully boys
          No lonely vestige clings

          Why bother at all about Blockheads?
          Why shouldn’t they do as they please?
          You know if it came to a brainy game
          You could baffle a Blockhead with ease
          …

          Why bother at all about Blockheads?
          Superior as you are
          You’re thoughtful and kind with a well-stocked mind
          A Blockhead can’t think very far

          Blockheads, Ian Dury and the Blockheads

  52. ChrisFromGA

    More evidence is coming out of Trump’s materially false statements concerning the rescue op:

    https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/2040749964444287410

    (Apologies if this is a repeat of other links)

    M T-G sounding more and more like the real dealio; what a shame she resigned rather than stick around and make Mike Johnson’s pathetic life be even more miserable. She’ll continue to be a thorn in the side of fake chump MAGA:

    ‘Our President is not a Christian and his words and actions should not be supported by Christians’

    https://x.com/RT_com/status/2040824474593796206

      1. ChrisFromGA

        Well, evangelical doctrine is that conversions are genuine right up until the end, e.g., the EKG in the OR goes flatline, and the docs all take a moment of silence.

        The wayward sinner who refuses to repent can always be prayed for, from a healthy emotional and physical distance.

        1. Tom Stone

          One of the most impressive Men I have met found God in a Supermax prison, pardoned after serving 12 years of a 25 year sentence, at age 30.
          He has devoted his life since to service in the Oakland Ghetto and is now in his mid 60’s.
          I suspect that somewhere in the neighborhood of 99% of such conversions are phony, some are real and they are impressive as hell, or maybe heaven?

  53. DG Bear

    RookieEMT
    “It’s the beginning of the end of the west. Its a storm of insane leadership, reality denying media, and a complacent population.”

    Personally, I Mark the beginning of the end with the Carter, deregulation and privatization with junk bonds of the 1977 era. After 50 years of weak leadership we have reached the end of the beginning of the destruction of the 500+ years of the ascendant West.

    Apparently non of our elites have grandchildren.

      1. Sibiriak

        “Concerned” is an understatement. I’ve never seen him that intense and alarmed.

    2. rowlf

      Not having the voice and image synchronized makes watching Daniel Davis disconcerting to watch now that there are AI fakes of other popular commentators.

      I have taken to not watching any Youtube follow-on link suggestions and only watch Youtube channels that I link to from the author’s blog or a collection of trusted channels.

    1. RookieEMT

      If Col. Mcgregor is correct, the US can deny special operations and the deaths of their tier 1 operators. So it wouldn’t shock me if a few dead war criminals are buried in wreckage in Iran. I doubt the US can deny pilot deaths.

    2. Santiago B

      The skull appears to be in the back of a small car typically sold in Iran. Most likely explanation is Hellfire missile suppressive fire on locals or Basij engaged in firefights or unluckily near the alleged rescue zone.

  56. Greg

    Here in France, gas stations are running out or diesel -while the usual TV ”experts” swear there won’t be any shortages. It’s logic: diesel is the ”useful” gas, since lorries use it. And without lorries, nothing moves, including food.

    What astonishes me is the complete silence on both sides, from the political far left to the far right, about the surge of gas prices. Five years ago, a 10 cents increase gave us two years of Yellow Vest riots. Nowadays? Nothing. Complete silence.

    I suspect team Macron has passed very harsh warnings about anyone willing to stir up the pot.

  57. Thasiet

    The second Syrian Girl and second Gerry Nolan videos look more like a C-130 crashing than a helicopter as attested. For one thing, the cigar shape of the fuselage that we can see in front of the fireball looks much more C-130 to it.

    Also, the fact that the aircraft is on a gliding trajectory proves that it is still generating some aerodynamic lift, which would be possible so long as the wings were intact (even while on fire), and with a center of gravity that supported stable forward flight (i.e. nose not blown off). What’s not essential is that the controls be operational, or necessarily even that the tail be fully attached.

    A helicopter, on the other hand, could only descend with that trajectory if it were in autorotation. This is a deliberate maneuver that requires the flight controls continue to be operational, and it requires the pilot to promptly initiate autorotation by lowering the collective, to reduce drag and allow the rotor to continue to freewheel, immediately upon loss of engine power. Otherwise, the rapid loss of rotor RPM will lead to a loss of aerodynamic lift, and the helicopter will plummet more or less straight down. Unsurprisingly, this will also happen if the main rotor is damaged. Also unsurprisingly, it will take much less of a hit to destroy a helo main and/or tail rotor than it will to fold up the wings on a C-130, and that’s a pretty big fireball in the videos.

  58. stickNmud

    Thank you Yves for posting daily on the Ramadan War, and my thanks to the commentariat for further info, links, and thoughtful discussion. Btw, I first heard you on Harry Shearer’s Le Show talking about Army Corps of Engineers failures during Katrina, and have been following NC ever since.

    More info on depletion of US military assets, with detailed must see chart:

    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/trackers-and-data-visualizations/tracking-us-military-assets-in-the-iran-war/

    This was referred to in article listed in Moon of Alabama’s Week in Review:

    https://www.19fortyfive.com/2026/03/the-iran-war-is-handing-china-a-playbook-on-how-to-beat-the-u-s-military/

    The F-15 crewman rescue The War Zone article now appears to have been a cover story for a major special ops mission more than 200 miles inside Iran, possibly to provide the propaganda ‘win’ that could be spun to allow Trump to declare victory?

    I started reading TWZ for info on Ukraine SMO 4 years ago. Good (pro-US) source.

    1. J.B

      No way! Thats where I learned of Naked Capitalism. My Sunday night routine was joe frank, Le Show, and Blues after midnight on the local npr station in the Midwest. Your mention of Le Show brought back some memories.. off to check what Harry’s been up to.
      Apologies for no value added comment.

  59. ThirtyOne

    I’ve deleted the image containing the alleged skull of an American C-130 crewmember.

    The remains resemble the car frame of a Peugeot Pars (Iranian car).

    In order to stay truthful, I’ve deleted the post.

    This is solely regarding the picture.

    https://t.me/FotrosResistancee/20920#

  60. david lamy

    Yes, my grandparents were much more self-sufficient than me who is now in their age range.
    My grandfather showed me how to glaze windows, repair sash cords and do basic plumbing repairs. For fun, we made an electric motor together. He had a secondary school education.
    My grandmother and her friends met for quilting bees in her basement. She routinely canned vegetables from the garden.
    They knew and socialized with their neighbors. They had community.
    We now have nothing of the sort.

  61. Ann

    Iran Is Piercing Israel’s Ballistic Missile Defenses With High Altitude Cluster Warhead Releases

    https://www.twz.com/land/iran-is-piercing-israels-ballistic-missile-defenses-with-high-altitude-cluster-warhead-releases

    China ready to cooperate with Russia to ease Middle East tension, foreign minister says

    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-ready-cooperate-with-russia-ease-middle-east-tension-foreign-minister-says-2026-04-05/

    Iranian drone strikes hit Kuwait’s oil infrastructure before Opec+ supply talks

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/05/iranian-drone-strikes-hit-kuwait-oil-infrastructure-before-opec-supply-talks

    Russia says US should abandon ‘language of ultimatums’ on Iran

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/russia-says-us-should-abandon-language-ultimatums-iran-2026-04-05/

    “Whole Region Going To Burn”: Iranian Parliament Speaker’s Warning To Trump

    https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/iran-israel-war-whole-region-going-to-burn-iranian-parliament-speakers-warning-to-trump-11315145

    China aims to show global leadership with Iran war diplomacy. US appears uninterested

    https://apnews.com/article/china-pakistan-iran-war-diplomacy-5032adf869db373558775db0e030f18c

    1. hereweare

      Reports that a British warship in the Mediterranean has been struck by Hezbollah missiles are not true, according to defence sources.
      https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/royal-navy-warship-not-been-33720272

      So the UK MoD confirming HMS Dragon (pictured front here) has NOT been hit!
      IF the Israelis are sure on the shape, they may have misidentified the FS Chevalier Paul (D621) (pictured rear) as the Type 45 and the Horizon-class are visually similar from a distance…
      Entirely possible it’s neither of them…
      https://x.com/DefenceGeek/status/2040863368353824966

      Unconfirmed reports from Israel have claimed a British vessel has been hit by an anti-ship missile from Lebanon by Hezbollah. Defences sources have confirmed HMS Dragon, a Royal Navy destroyer in the region, has NOT been attacked nor struck. I’m still trying to find out more information. More to follow, once I get it.
      https://x.com/TomCotterillX/status/2040858618870833309

  63. Jason Boxman

    I’ve given up trying to follow Trump’s war rationale, but we’re back to the strait mattering when it doesn’t matter and Europe can go open it and it’s opening on its own anyway. Help. My brain hurts.

    1. ThirtyOne

      An astute coinage by a reader here a couple of days ago:
      DTS
      Deranged Trump Syndrome

      1. Pat Morrison

        > Deranged Trump Syndrome

        That’s good.

        In grappling with the high school friends of mine who defend the current regime, I am toying with (but not vocalizing) ‘Trump Enchantment Syndrome’ (TES) as my explanation.

    2. Samuel Conner

      If Michael Wolff’s interpretation of DJT is sound, there isn’t a coherent rationale; it’s whatever is top of mind at the moment of a vocalization.

      We don’t know what was top of mind when the decision was made (I’ve seen it reported that the date of the decision is late December 2025, sort of like the 60-day countdown to the June ’25 attack); later explanations don’t need to match the original reason to be rhetorically useful.

  64. Dissident Dreamer

    In a new post on his Truth Social platform, Trump writes: “Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!”
    That’s 03:30 Tehran time on Wednesday (01:00 BST).
    It’s not clear what Trump’s social media post is referring to. The BBC has asked the White House to clarify.

    1. Ben Panga

      Subsequently Trump spoke to ABC and the WSJ and said deadline is now Tuesday evening.

      It changes by the hour.

  65. LawnDart

    As an ex C-130 Loadmaster, regarding rescue mission, I can safely say that you’re somewhat less-reluctant to fly a sortee over enemy terrirory if you know someone has your back if stuff goes wrong (i.e., a little less risk-adverse and likely to say “no f**king way!” to the mission) and not left behind.

    That fireball… there’s crispy-critters scattered in and around a smoking-hole, no doubt: no time or altitude to bail out. If it was a C-130J, you’re looking at three dead if only crew aboard (two pilots plus loadmaster), but add 1-2 souls if an H-model or older (which I’d seriously doubt).

    Helicopters on 130s… only tiny ones due to height-limitations (9′ useable vertical cargo-space).

    See HERE for more C-130 details.

    It’ll be interesting to know the real story behind this mess, or at least something more factual… but suppose all in good time.

    1. AndrewJ

      It makes more sense if the C-130s and Spec Ops heli were attempting a different operation nearby, or maybe the rescue mission was relying on setting up a little airbase at night far enough away that they could bring the airman back to the C-130 and take off. I’d really like to see these spots pinned on a map. All this as cover for a “uranium recovery” op is also a good story. It sure seems like they traded a lot of airframes for one colonel!

  66. Silo Man

    And this recent post on telegram pars today russian https://t-me.translate.goog/s/parstodayrussian?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en attributed to the IRGC:

    “After the completion of the operation to encircle the enemy by the heroes of the Islamic Republic, the American side, seeking to prevent the humiliation of US President Trump and maintain the illusion of the power of its army, was forced to subject the downed aircraft, equipment, as well as its commanders and soldiers to intensive bombing.”

    Yikes if true……

    1. hk

      During the Korean War, I’d read that crash sites of US aircraft behind enemy lines, especially the F86 sabres, were routinely bombed to prevent secrets (incl pilots? Interestingly, F86 pilots, compared to other types, seem to be unusually unlikely to wind up as POWs rather than MIA–makes you wonder….).

  68. Anthony Martin

    In the fog of war and without all the information, assessments & ptojections can be fanciful; but I will estimate that Iran’s initial ‘riposte’ was to imbalance the leadership of its opposition (US/Israel) in order to paralyze its decision making capability. If one ‘listens’ to Trump, this may have succeded. Operationally, Iran seems to have divided the ‘front’ into two spheres with the intent to encircle and constrict each (which implies, if continuued, Israel and the GCC will implode internally) With Trump, in an apparent state of bewilderment and with Hegseth marching forward on his Crusade with orders from Jesus, the US seems oblivious ( Iran has no air defense, the US rules the skies,over Iran, Iran has run out of missiles, its impossible for the Iranians to match the firepower of the US, the Iranians are primitive barbarians, etc,etc. etc. ) to the possibility that Iran may be ‘holding its powder dry’ in order to effect a decisive counter offensive. The generals who just got purged are probably familiar with the Battle of Cannae. it’s almost certain Trump and Hegseth haven’t a clue.

  69. hk

    Ritter and Johnson on DDGeopolotics. They are sure that the whole thing was a special ops mission gone wrong, basically one that got triggered too early (and that saved lives). One thing they start from is that you just don’t have a colonel as a WSO on a normal F15 mission. Whoever this colonel was, he came from “somewhere else” and, like the Bat21 guy, he was not someone who could be allowed to fall into hostile hands.

    https://www.youtube.com/live/mn_Jvl7rX4M?si=Y8M1Zu-VRJnF7sXT

  70. Ann

    Jewish settlers burn farms, buildings in West Bank as retaliation for Palestinian stone attack

    https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-892156

    Trump says ‘we’re blowing up the whole country’ if no Iran deal is reached in 48 hours

    https://abcnews.com/International/trump-blowing-country-iran-deal-reached-48-hours/story

    Iran Now Threatening To Close Bab Al-Mandeb Strait After Trump Threats

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharyfolk/2026/04/05/iranian-officials-now-threatening-to-close-bab-al-mandeb-strait-after-trump-threats/

  72. Jason Boxman

    Trump’s war isn’t going to plan. But there was no plan.

    Rather than a plan, Trump has urges. Violent urges, domineering urges, brutal urges, triumphial urges, narcissistic urges.

    I can’t imagine a negotiated settlement. Talks with Russian demonstrated a lack of competency even if Trump were ever serious. Repeat assassinations foreclose that possibility.

  73. Ann

    Trump Cabinet urged to invoke 25th Amendment against president

    https://www.newsweek.com/trump-cabinet-urged-invoke-25th-amendment-president-11785106

    Trump Triggers 25th Amendment Calls With Unhinged Easter Meltdown

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-triggers-25th-amendment-calls-with-unhinged-easter-meltdown/

    Trump Skips Easter Church to Take Self-Worship Tour of D.C.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-skips-church-on-christianitys-holiest-day-to-go-on-crazy-tour/

  74. Ann

    MTG Says Trump Needs To Drop To His Knees And ‘Beg Forgiveness From God’ For ‘Evil’ Easter Post

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/marjorie-taylor-greene-slams-trump-easter-day-post-iran-threats_n_69d28cc7e4b05047ac8ed42e

    Hunched Trump, 79, Seen After Aides Address Health Claims

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/hunched-trump-79-seen-after-aides-address-health-claims/

    MTG Leads Outrage to Trump’s Foul-Mouthed Easter Threat to Iran: ‘He Has Gone Insane’

    https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-trump-easter-message-iran-b2952167.html

    Iran official vows to send Trump ‘straight to the depths of hell’ after 48-hour warning

    https://www.ibtimes.com/iran-official-vows-send-trump-straight-depths-hell-after-48-hour-warning-3800890

    Trump to Axios: Iran deal possible by Tues., otherwise “I am blowing up everything”

    https://www.axios.com/2026/04/05/trump-iran-deal-power-plants

    Is Trump *Trying* to Lose the Midterms?

    https://www.thebulwark.com/p/is-trump-trying-to-lose-the-midterms-inflation-iran-war-prices-hormuz-tariffs

  75. Ann

    ‘Unhinged madman’: US politicians react to Trump’s expletive-laden threat to Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/05/trump-iran-threats-politician-reactions

    European allies are losing hope of keeping America in NATO

    https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/04/05/european-allies-are-losing-hope-of-keeping-america-in-nato

    Trump Celebrated Easter By Threatening to Commit War Crimes

    https://www.thebulwark.com/p/trump-celebrated-easter-by-threatening

    Trump Warns Iran He Could Strike ‘Every Power Plant,’ in WSJ Interview

    https://www.wsj.com/world/trump-warns-in-journal-interview-that-he-could-strike-every-power-plant-in-iran-47556f0d

    ‘Stop This Lawless War,’ Advocates Say as Trump Warns of Coming Power Plant, Bridge Attacks in Iran: “Trump is being driven insane by his inability to defeat Iran,” said a UK journalist. “This is a threat to commit unspeakable war crimes.”

    https://www.commondreams.org/news/trump-war-crimes

    Paula White likens Trump’s troubles to Jesus Christ at Easter lunch

    https://www.salon.com/2026/04/05/paula-white-likens-trumps-troubles-to-jesus-christ-at-easter-lunch/

    Trump Revels in Threats to Commit War Crimes in Iran

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/05/us/politics/trump-iran-war-crimes-truth-social.html

    Secret Service investigates reports of gunfire near White House

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/05/secret-service-investigates-gunfire-near-white-house

    On Conspiracy Theorist Laura Loomer’s Orders, Rubio Announces Arrest of 2 Women for Supporting Iran

    https://www.commondreams.org/news/soleimani-family

    Inside the Pentagon, fears of a disrupted war effort after Army chief’s ouster

    https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2026-04-05/inside-pentagon-fears-of-disrupted-war-effort-after-army-chiefs-ouster

    TACO Trump Caught Shifting His War Deadlines Again

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/taco-trump-called-out-for-shifting-his-iran-war-deadlines-again/

    US Inflation Seen Spiking in First Snapshot Since Iran War

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-04/us-inflation-seen-spiking-in-first-snapshot-since-iran-war

    Senate Democrat says Trump ‘needs a lot of prayer’

    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5816985-warock-trump-accountability-prayer-easter/

    Israel preparing for attacks on Iranian energy sites, awaits US green light, official says

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-preparing-attacks-iranian-energy-sites-awaits-us-green-light-official-2026-04-04/

    Trump is inspired by love of power and glory for himself

    https://www.citizen-times.com/story/opinion/2026/04/05/trump-is-inspired-by-love-of-power-over-others-and-glory-for-himself/89432872007/

    American Greatness, American Barbarism

    https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/american-greatness-artemis-ii-american-barbarism-iran-war-1235541998/

    1. Jason Boxman

      US Inflation Seen Spiking in First Snapshot Since Iran War

      Coming to a Friday near you.

      The sudden increase in US gasoline prices felt by American consumers is set to be on full display in key inflation data due out this coming week.

      Economists are penciling in a 1% increase in the consumer price index for March — the sharpest one-month advance since 2022 — after the Iran war pushed gas prices at the pump up by about $1 per gallon.

      At the same time, the core CPI, excluding energy and food, probably rose 0.3% from a month earlier, according to a Bloomberg survey ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics report due Friday.

      oh noes

      A day ahead of the CPI, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation will offer a snapshot of pre-war price pressures. Economists see the so-called core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which excludes food and energy, having risen by 0.4% for a third month in February, suggesting progress toward tamer inflation was stalling even before the conflict.

      America is going great!

    2. Expat2uruguay

      Very interesting. The backlash against this morning’s “Trump tweet” may build into the invocation of the 25th amendment. We don’t know who wrote that tweet. We may be witnessing a soft coup underway.

      Will it matter if Trump claims tomorrow that he never wrote that tweet? And mind you, he wouldn’t make that claim unless it was true, in my opinion.

      1. Ann

        You are very welcome, mrsyk, it was a wild afternoon for headlines! I could hardly keep up.

  77. DGE

    Seeing the way the US media and establishment figures are reacting to Trump’s deranged “crazy bastards” post this morning, could it be that it’s a bold attempt by someone with access to his account to stop him by making him seem unhinged enough to justify a 25th Amendment maneouvre?

    I’m just kidding, of course, because other than the f-bomb there’s nothing in that post that sounds out of character.

  78. Ann

    Oil prices rise as Trump warns Iran to open Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday or face ‘hell’

    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/05/crude-oil-prices-iran-war-strait-hormuz.html

    Trump appears to extend Iran deadline in cryptic post

    https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2026/04/05/trump-appears-to-extend-iran-deadline-in-cryptic-post_6752144_4.html

    Trump’s chances of being removed by 25th Amendment climb

    https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-chances-of-being-removed-by-25th-amendment-climb-11785658

    MTG Calls BS on Trump’s Faith After Easter No-Show

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-calls-bs-on-trumps-faith-after-easter-no-show/

    Bomb Iran but Blow Up NATO? | It would be the height of folly and help Moscow, Tehran and Beijing.

    https://www.wsj.com/opinion/nato-western-alliance-europe-u-s-donald-trump-011c97b0

    Trump unveils 100% tariff on some patented drugs on ‘Liberation Day’ anniversary

    https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-pharmaceutical-drugs-59ed7821faa5b52e2752c09edbbbf0ca

    White House Melts Down for Second Day Over Trump Health Claims

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/white-house-melts-down-for-second-day-over-trump-health-claims/

    Trump says US will target Iran’s infrastructure on Tuesday

    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-us-will-target-irans-infrastructure-tuesday-2026-04-05/

    Keystone Kash Shamelessly Sucks Up to Trump Amid Shake-Up Rumors

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/keystone-kash-patel-shamelessly-sucks-up-to-donald-trump-amid-shake-up-rumors/

    Trump Risks Confidence in US Role as Guardian of Global Shipping

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-05/trump-s-hormuz-threats-risks-faith-in-us-role-as-guardian-of-global-shipping

    Which Countries Are Getting Through the Strait of Hormuz—and How

    https://www.newsweek.com/countries-transiting-strait-hormuz-passage-11783702

  79. Ann

    Florida attorney general refuses to enforce state constitution provision barring public funds from going to religious institutions, says lawmakers can establish Christianity as “state religion”

    https://www.firstcoastnews.com/article/news/regional/florida/florida-religious-charter-schools-funds-uthmeier/77-13f85dbd-5f98-4819-bb75-671cf67a2873

    Riyadh,meaning “gardens” is Capital of Saudi Arabia with 8 million population (were 27 Thousands in the 1930s),sits in the middle of the desert, the city gets its water from Desalination plants almost 500 km from the city

    Trump announces ‘fraud’ crackdown in Democratic states as arrests begin in California | Donald Trump

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/03/trump-vance-fraud-arrest-crackdown-california

    1. Vicky Cookies

      Just what we need, a Christian Caliphate in the American South.

      In seriousness, I’d ask what this is intended to do, aside from score points with fanatics. Is it the case that the charter schools and Christian colleges for which this will allow state funding are the most sought after educational destinations? Or is it rather, or in conjunction, or as a result, simply an intensification of the assault on public schools?

      1. .Tom

        I would simply assume nothing beyond pretty vengeance is the goal. Getting back at enemies is one of the most consistent themes of 47.

  81. Ben Panga

    Fars

    🔹The latest statistics on ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz show that in the past 24 hours, 15 ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz with permission from Iran.

    —

    Gradual uptick

  82. Ben Panga

    Iran threatens ‘complete and utter annihilation’ of OpenAI’s $30B Stargate AI data center in Abu Dhabi — regime posts video with satellite imagery of ChatGPT-maker’s premier 1GW data center (Tom’s Hardware)

    “Should the USA proceed with its threats concerning Iran’s power plant facilities the following retaliatory measures shall be promptly enacted,” declares the military spokesperson. “All power plants, energy infrastructure, and information and communications technology of the Zionist regime, and all similar companies within the region that have American shareholders shall face complete and utter annihilation.”

    After the remarks from Zolfaghari, the video switches to a shot of the Earth from space, which zooms into Abu Dhabi on Google Maps. A zone not far from the coast is then centered on, showing an apparently ‘empty’ area of desert. However, a message is overlaid on this bleak view, stating “Nothing stays hidden to our sight, though hidden by Google.” The video then switches to a ‘night vision’ view of the same area of the map with the full extent of the Stargate AI datacenter in Abu Dhabi clear to see.

  83. N

    The official story seems to have quite a few holes in it.

    My story sounds much more realistic.

    So, Hegseth fired the General because he wouldnt OK Trump’s plan to go into Iran and take their “nuclear dust”. With him gone the next day, they send in 100-200 (or more) special operations guys on the C130s to set up a temporary base from where they can go get it.

    Right off the bat its a giant mess as the F15E carrying the mission commander as its WSO gets shot down. We know he was the mission commander because thats the only reason a Colonel is flying over Iran in the backseat of an F15E. Additionally, reports claim the Iranians target the base housing the ground command and control somewhere around this time.

    Two A10s and two Blackhawks are damaged or destroyed, as well as 2 Pave Hawks. The 2 C130s are damaged on the insertion and unable to fly home so they get blown to dust, although…

    Among the charred remains of the planes and the helicopters and all there was found a half charred bottle of sunscreen and a half charred tube of toothpaste. Who brings toothpaste on a search and rescue mission? Maybe if the rescuee is Margot Robbie or something.

    The US sells the story of the F15E plane that crashed as being the reason US air assets are willing to go so deep into Iran. They are looking for this lone WSO. Additionally the US claims that they are looking in a specific region near the coast but the site where they “found” the lost airman was actually hundreds of miles further inland right next to…..Isfahan Nuclear Research Center! The media claims this was a great victory for the US but nobody asks what kind of search and rescue operations for a single person (WHO IS HOLDING A DEVICE THAT SHOWS THE US MILITARY HIS EXACT POSITION) requires hundreds of special ops soldiers?

    A FUBAR attempt to send in a special ops team to steal the nuclear dust which resulted in the commander being shot out of the sky pretty early in the mission and things going downhill from there.

    1. Ben Panga

      Armchair Warlord on twitter with a similar reading [all his words, I forgot the italics!]

      Armchair Warlord
      @ArmchairW
      42m

      In making sense of a complex event, it’s often best to start with the facts and then work backwards from there. So what are we to make of this weekend in Iran?

      My theory is we just saw an attempt to seize Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium unravel.

      Down the rabbit hole.⬇️

      Let’s run through the timeline and the location of key events first:

      The evening of April 2nd, the Iranian military released a video of them shooting down a USAF aircraft. This was initially claimed as having occurred over the Persian Gulf, but apparently occurred near Isfahan. Wreckage corresponding to an F-15E of the 494th Tactical Fighter Squadron was recovered from a site south of Isfahan the morning of April 3rd, although geolocation of the very barren crash site took some time (fig. 1).

      The afternoon of April 3rd, a number of USAF HH-60s and an HC-130 fueler (!) were spotted operating further south and west in Iran, over Kogiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, as well as at least one A-10, an MQ-9 Reaper, and apparently an F-35. An antiaircraft battle developed and the Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) HH-60s (fig.2) and an A-10 were damaged, with the A-10’s pilot ejecting over the Persian Gulf. The HH-60s were reported as “damaged” and one was photographed trailing smoke. Reports emerged at that time that the pilot of the F-15E (which had crashed near Isfahan, although this was then-unclear!) had been rescued, while the WSO remained at large. Provincial authorities in Kohgiluyeh asked civilians to be on the lookout for an American aviator around this time and numerous photos of militia searching for him emerged.

      The next day passed relatively uneventfully. The evening of April 4th, however, there was a report of more helicopter activity slightly further north, in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, accompanied by a washed-out photograph of an unknown helicopter flying very low on a very dark night (fig. 3). Later that night news emerged that the F-15Es WSO had been rescued… and that C-130s had been abandoned and scuttled at a forward base in the Isfahan area during the withdrawal of a company-size SOF force that had landed in the area, over 100 operators ostensibly having been sent to rescue one aviator. Photographs that emerged as dawn broke showed two burned-out C-130s and several destroyed MH-6 Little Bird SOF assault helicopters, in a scene reminiscent of the aftermath of Operation Eagle Claw (fig. 4). A USAF C-295 tactical transport was caught on video around that time flying in Iran – presumably outbound – at extremely low altitude.

      So, what are we to make of this?

      First and foremost, the official story – that a huge direct-action SOF force landed near Isfahan with assault helicopters and heavy transport aircraft to rescue one fugitive airman – is nonsense. Not because the USAF won’t go to extreme lengths to recover isolated personnel – it can, will, and did in this case – but because that’s an absolutely nonsensical way to accomplish that mission. It’s a totally inappropriate force package for a mission to go in, extract a single person from a remote area, and leave. Ergo this SOF task force was there on other business.

      So how were the pilots actually recovered? In all likelihood, exactly the way you would expect them to be recovered – by USAF PJs in long-range helicopters, under cover of darkness. The rescue force probably recovered the pilot from the Isfahan area late at night on April 2-3 and were caught in daylight as they exfiltrated, leading to the aforementioned antiaircraft battle the morning of April 3rd and a high-risk refueling over Iranian territory that was filmed by many Iranians on the ground, as well as a shot-down A-10 trying to clear a path for the helicopters to exfiltrate. The WSO was likely recovered from his hide site near Isfahan by HH-60 in a quiet and deliberate operation the night of April 4-5. One or two birds, in and out under cover of darkness – a far cry from the gung-ho stories currently being spun.

      So what about the SOF rodeo happening at the same time? Well, why was an F-15 flying downtown to Isfahan the evening of April 2nd to begin with? Probably because there was a huge direct-action raid planned in the Isfahan area for the night of April 4-5, likely going after enriched uranium at an underground facility in the region, and the Iranian air defenses around Isfahan weren’t going to suppress themselves. The plan was likely to fly several MH-6 assault birds and a sizable force of operators via C-130 and C-295 to a forward staging area near Isfahan the evening of April 4th, hit a reported cache site or sites for enriched uranium, and try to make it out with the magic dust by daybreak on April 5th.

      In any event the USAF wasn’t going to send transports somewhere it wouldn’t send strike aircraft. So the Air Force cashed its check on claims of air superiority and in went the strike package the evening of April 2nd – and lo and behold one of the F-15Es went down because reports of the demise of the Iranian air defense network had been greatly exaggerated. Any rational planner would have scrubbed the SOF operation at this point because they’d lost control of the situation and the Iranian defenses had proven more effective than planned.

      We went ahead anyways and inserted the SOF task force the evening of April 4th. I strongly suspect that this force was immediately discovered by Iranian drones that would have been up and searching for this WSO, because five transport aircraft including at least two C-130s (about what would be required for a bunch of Little Birds and a company-sized element of operators with equipment) landing at a desert airstrip 50km from Isfahan (and in the same general area where the WSO was taking cover) would be pretty God-damn obvious to anything with thermals. Iranian troops immediately deployed and began converging, the task force probably took indirect fire, and the operational commander immediately aborted mission and retreated in the three remaining operational aircraft. Scuttling charges on delayed fuzes burned two C-130s and an unknown number of MH-6s that had been abandoned at the airstrip around dawn.

      The story that they were there to rescue the WSO was concocted at that time to cover the disastrously failed raid, as were logistically implausible claims that the task force had been rescued by three additional aircraft after the two C-130s got stuck on the LZ and were scuttled – perhaps to minimize the scale of the effort. Claims that a large battle took place appear to be similarly exaggerated – video has emerged of a single group of Iranian militia apparently killed in a drone strike, but nothing of the nonstop bombing and firefights that were rumored across Telegram all night. I remind the reader that the events of the last few days have proven quite conclusively that Iranians seem to have plenty of internet access to post photos and video when they actually have something worthwhile to film.

      I’d like to note that Hegseth fired General George – US Army Chief of Staff – on April 2nd, apparently because he just wasn’t a good fit for the job and definitely not because he’d told him that this whole scheme was insane. It seems to me that the good General’s advice should have perhaps been heeded.

      1. Paradox of Unrealized Power

        A couple of thoughts:

        1. Not only is this story full of holes, it also came out *far* too quickly compared to the supposed events to be anything other than curated, pre-fabricated propaganda. They didn’t even wait for the next day’s news cycle.
        2. If ArmchairW is correct (or even mostly so), the difficulties described more or less show that an actual large-scale invasion/ground war is so hilariously suicidal that it simply won’t happen

        As an aside, I cannot tell you how depressing it is to know that I more or less unquestioningly accept Iran or Hezbollah accounts of events and I automatically doubt anything that comes from the US. I still don’t understand how we go here…

    1. ThirtyOne

      which sent me down a rabbit hole:
      https://aliparsa.com/brno/brno.html

      Brno was especially favorite among the Iranian tribes. Some of them even named their daughters after the rifle. During the 1979 revolution, the gun re-appeared in the hands of the revolutionaries and tribesmen, who never abandoned their Brnos. When Kurds challenged the newly established Islamic government, they used mostly modern assault rifles. But Brno still had a use: The kurds claimed that with special cartridges that can pierce 2cm of steel, Brno can down aircraft and helicopters.

  85. Ann

    ICE Agents Detain Newlywed Spouse of Soldier Training to Deploy

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/05/us/ice-detains-military-wife-soldier-deployment.html

    Trump Is Robbing You to Pay for His Dumb War

    https://jacobin.com/2026/04/trump-iran-budget-austerity-imperialism

    Trump’s Profanity-Filled Easter Post Blows Up in His Face

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-profanity-filled-easter-post-blows-up-in-his-face/

    Christian Nationalist Legislator Dusty Deevers Says Elected Officials Must ‘Kiss The Son Or Face The Beating’

    https://www.peoplefor.org/rightwingwatch/christian-nationalist-legislator-dusty-deevers-says-elected-officials-must-kiss-son

    Oil climbs anew on mixed signals about Iran war’s future

    https://www.axios.com/2026/04/05/oil-rises-iran-war-future-trump

    ‘No on-site doctor’: Dental student died in ICU overseen by remote ‘tele-health’ physician who pronounced him dead on a video screen, lawsuit says…

    https://lawandcrime.com/lawsuit/no-on-site-doctor-dental-student-died-in-icu-overseen-by-remote-tele-health-physician-who-pronounced-him-dead-on-a-video-screen-lawsuit-says/

    in Connecticut – comments under this story show other health professionals confirm that remote or AI docs are treating patients in ICU, Neuro and Psych units. I am appalled.

  86. playa gold

    🇮🇷🔥 Abu Azrael, “The Angel of Death,” has arrived in Tehran.
    Real name Ayoub Falih Hassan al-Rubaie, born 1978 in Iraq. Former university lecturer, one-time Taekwondo champion, and father of five. He first took up arms with the Mahdi Army against US forces during the 2003 invasion, then became one of the most feared commanders against ISIS in Syria and Iraq as part of the Popular Mobilization Forces.
    He’s now in Tehran coordinating with the IRGC on plans for a potential US ground invasion. The man who fought the Americans in Iraq is back, and ready to do it again.
    His catchphrase: “Illa tahin” — “Grind you to dust.”

    I plan to have a T shirt (Black of course) screen printed with his catch phrase. And a couple of the emblems that appear in the clip. Hehe. Will get stares. Lots of Israelis in Thailand. And Persians Shiia and Sunni .

    Style and substance! Yeah I know I cannot be a stoic all the time. Perhaps I am bi polar. It actually would explain alot. Ok. Time for another vodka

    https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/180868

  87. johnnyme

    Iran mediators make last-ditch push for 45-day ceasefire

    The U.S., Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war, according to four U.S., Israeli and regional sources with knowledge of the talks.

    Four sources with knowledge of the diplomatic efforts said the negotiations are taking place through Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators and also through text messages sent between Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

    The sources said the mediators are discussing with the parties the terms for two-phased deal; the first phase would a potential 45-day ceasefire during which a permanent end to the war would be negotiated.

    The second phase would be an agreement on ending the war.

    1. DGE

      Wow, I was thinking, “another market manipulation about nonexistent negotiations” and then I hovered my mouse over the link provided and sure enough, it was Axios. Was it Barak Ravid getting his brief from Mossad again?

    3. Ben Panga

      Archived version of the Barak Ravid Mossaxios update

      And more excerpts:

      Two sources said the operational plan for a massive U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran’s energy facilities is ready to go, but stressed the extension of Trump’s deadline was aimed at giving a last chance to reach a deal…

      The mediators told the Iranian officials there is no time for further negotiation tactics and stressed the next 48 hours are the last opportunity for them to reach a deal and prevent massive destruction for the country.

      Also still with the claim that Witkoff and Aragchi are texting. A text chain I’d love to see lol.

      1. DD GE

        “· Hey
        · Sup
        · Jus chillin
        · K. Whatchu doin’ later?
        · Dunno yet. Imma holla at you aight?
        · Word”

        And so on and so forth… Big fat nothing.

    5. The Rev Kev

      That agreement is dead on delivery. That 45 day ceasefire only gives Israel & the US time to rearm for another attack on Iran. And Iran is supposed to give up control of the Strait of Hormuz? And of course there will never be a second phase. That deal reeks of the sort of dodgy deals that were offered Russia to end the war in the Ukraine. Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish may be mediators but this deal would be self serving for them.

    1. Polar Socialist

      As Iranian FM Araghchi yesterday wryly posted: “Another three victories likes this, and USA is pretty much done” or something to that effect.

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