[Today’s Iran war post launched largely done but I expect to find and add some more tidbits, so please return or refresh the page at 7:30 AM EDT for the final version. the Bab el-Mandeb sighting, so far at the credible rumor stage, is at the very end]
Because we are now in an overly dynamic situation, let us first get everyone current (as of 7:00 AM EDT when this post first launched) on the resumption of a hot conflict, nominally between Iran and Israel but with clear US and Gulf state support.
The high level version is:
1. Israel struck Beirut, ostensibly in defiance of Trump
2. Iran very quickly (last night local time) attacked northern Israel, but in an arguably proportionate manner. Importantly, Iran has designated this program to be a new phase of the war, calling it is Operation True Promise 5.
3. Israel made Trump look like a fool by returning fire shortly after Trump told the Financial Times that he was in charge and had told Fox that he would tell Netanyahu not to punch back. Israel struck sites in western Iran and Tehran. These were made by Israel jets operating at standoff range, using Iraq and Saudi airspace. The idea that the Saudis are denying the US use of their airspace is thus a fiction.
4. Iran and Ansar Allah responded by hitting more targets in Israel, including the airbase at Nevatim.
5. Israel has attacked Iran again
There may be another Iran response as or shortly after this post goes live.
Note that some of the information we will show below is behind the pace of events. We will endeavor to flag that, but it also behooves readers to pay attention.
This was where things stood about 10 hours ago, before Israel retaliated against Iran and Iran quickly hit back:
Note that as the very first speaker says, Iran intended this to be a warning shot, to get Israel to stop its operation in Lebanon. From a mildly cleaned up machine translation:
Newscaster: What are the Iranian leaders now saying about these latest strikes? And are the attacks over for now?
Mohammed Abal [?]; Well, it sounds like that’s the case because there is a a phrase in the U in the statement by the IRGC saying that this is a shot. this is a warning shot to Israel and that if Israel responds against Iran then the next retaliation or the next phase of attack by Iran will be more devastating and more comprehensive. So that’s that’s clearly an indication that Iran is not intending to continue these missile strikes on Israel and that it is a warning in um because Iran has been threatening to do this for a while now including last week and also even before that saying that if Israel continues to strike in Lebanon and particularly on Beirut then Iran will retaliate.
PressTV on the first round of Iran attacks, in Ramat David airbase, origin of Israeli attacks on Lebanon, hit by ballistic missiles: IRGC
The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) says that its Aerospace Force struck the Ramat David airbase with ballistic missiles, identifying the facility as the launchpad for Israeli aggression against southern Lebanon, including the bombing of Tyre, Nabatieh and Beirut’s southern suburbs.
In a statement released late Sunday, the IRGC said the operation was a direct response to the Zionist regime’s widespread crimes in Lebanon, which have resulted in the killing and mass displacement of civilians.
“In response to the extensive crime of the usurping Zionist regime in southern Lebanon, the killing and mass displacement of the oppressed people of Tyre, Nabatieh and other areas, including Dahiyeh Beirut, the Ramat David airbase, the origin of these aggressions, was targeted by ballistic missiles of the IRGC Aerospace Force,” the statement read.
The IRGC stressed that Iran’s acceptance of the April 8 ceasefire was conditional on a halt to hostilities on all fronts.
Nima of Dialogue Works provided an update after the first set of exchanges.
Key details from his monologue:
1. Iran hit Northern Israel in with about 20 ballistic missiles in five waves, with at least 4 getting through
2. Israelis strikes were standoff only, used Iraq and Saudi airspace and Iraq airbase. Nima claims that Iran has information that other GCC countries were involved too
3. Ansar Allah attacked Prince Sultan airbase so they see the US as involved. Only one missile fired at Israel, that one apparently intercepted Ansar Allah concentrated more fire on the Saudis. No information yet on effect but Nima contends Saudi information suppression is as strong as in Israel
4. This is becoming Trump and Netanyahu v. the global economy. Which will break first?
Keep in mind that Ansar Allah saddling up means that the step of closing the Bab el-Mandib strait is in easy reach on the escalation ladder. If I were Iran and had the luxury of time, I would seek to have Ansar Allah hold off until the oil cliff effect started (per a senior Exxon exec, in two to three weeks) so as to amplify the effect of additional loss of supply.
It is hard to know what to make of Trump embarrassing himself by claiming he could leash and collar Netanyahu right before Netanyahu defied him. At best, Trump is addicted to his vision of himself as Colossus bestride the world, able to bend world leaders to his will. But if he really wanted to check Netanyahu, he has ample means, by threatening to cut off intel and weapons supplies and then ordering the CIA and DoD to follow through.
Yet Trump hoist himself on his own petard, macho-wise. Financial Times Trump says Netanyahu will have ‘no choice’ but to accept a deal with Iran
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will have no choice but to accept any deal the US negotiates with Iran, Donald Trump said, because the US president “calls the shots”.
“He won’t have any choice,” Trump told the FT in a telephone interview. “I call the shots. I call all the shots. He [Netanyahu] doesn’t call the shots.”
Trump spoke shortly after Iran launched a salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel in the most serious breach of the ceasefire that was struck in early April.
The president separately told Fox News that he would instruct Netanyahu to refrain from taking retaliatory action against Iran — a position at odds with statements from the Israeli military.
Trump said that Iran’s strikes had not changed his desire to conclude US-Iran negotiations. “It’s not going to have any impact on the deal,” he told the FT.
More evidence of Trump’s unsinkable narcissism even in the face of Titanic level damage:
As I was speaking with President Trump, I could see incoming Iranian missiles out the window soaring toward northern Israel.
“It’s certainly not going to help negotiations,” President Trump told Fox News.
“What I would suggest to Iran: You’ve shot your missiles, that’s enough,… pic.twitter.com/QhIen8y08a
— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) June 7, 2026
Mind you, Trump and Netanyahu may well be completely in cahoots, even though it seems very un-Trump-like to let Netanyahu so visibly humiliate him. Note that per Nima in his talk above, that Israel launched its attack on Beirut just when the Pakistan negotiators arrived in Israel.
This is laughable. There is zero chance – I repeat, zero chance – that Israel is acting without massive assistance from the U.S. military. The U.S. military is assisting Israel and Trump ordered it to do so.
Polls show that Americans overwhelmingly oppose this criminal,… https://t.co/g7cyLgvv2H
— Dimitri Lascaris (@dimitrilascaris) June 8, 2026
But perhaps Trump has yet again been persuaded that it would not be that hard to finish Iran off, and now he has Israel acting in the lead role.
Now let us move forward to the next round of Israel attacks and the Iran response. From Aljzaeera:
- Israel’s military says Iran has launched a second wave of missiles towards its territory with sirens sounding across the country.
- The strikes follow Israeli attacks on Iran with explosions reported in Tehran, Tabriz, and Isfahan as tensions escalate after Israel struck the southern suburbs of Beirut, killing at least two people and wounding 20.
Note that per PressTV, the second round of Iran attacks hit Nevatim, which is in the southern part of Israel. From ‘Operation Nasr’: IRGC pounds Israel’s Nevatim, Tel Nof strategic air bases
The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) says it launched a major retaliatory operation targeting key Israeli Nevatim and Tel Nof airbases, warning that all combat units are on high alert for further action.
In a statement on Monday, the IRGC said that its brave fighters of the Aerospace Force started “Operation Nasr” – meaning Operation Victory – earlier in the day as a retaliatory move in response to Israeli military actions.
“This operation was carried out in response to the missile aggression by the child-killing Zionist regime (Israel) against several radar sites in three locations across Iran,” it added.
The IRGC emphasized that the speed of response to the Israeli army’s aggression and the extensive target bank were among the measures taken by the operating groups in this phase….
The IRGC operation came after Iranian armed forces launched a missile barrage at Israeli-occupied territories on Sunday. Israeli media reported that sirens blared in wide areas, including the occupied Golan Heights, Tiberias, Safed, Nazareth, Haifa, and several other cities.
The developments were a direct response to the Israeli regime’s continued aggression against Lebanon, including the use of banned phosphorus bombs and the targeting of Beirut’s southern suburbs of Dahiyeh…
The Hebrew news outlet Israel Hayom reported that Iran fired 10 missiles at Israeli settlements in the West Bank, causing damage to three buildings.
Meanwhile, Israeli media reported that warning sirens were activated at the Hatzerim military base in the Gaza Strip, in Tel Aviv and its southern parts.
One wonders if Iran designating its campaign against Israel as Operation Nasr, as opposed to part of Operation True Promise, means that Iran is making Israel a second and explicit front of its combat.
Aljazeera says that the second round of Israeli attacks, so far Iran has reported no casualties but Israel hit an Iran petrochemical plant in apparent response to Iran hitting one in Haifa, and that there were very loud blasts in Tehran.
Middle East Eye’s live feed identified another escalatory measure from Ansar Allah:
Houthis declare Israeli-linked vessels military targets in Red Sea
Yemen’s armed forces announced a complete ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea, warning that any Israeli-linked vessel movement in the waterway would be treated as a military target.
In a statement, military spokesperson Yahya Saree said Yemeni forces had also attacked what he described as a sensitive target in Jaffa, without providing further details.
“Any Zionist movement in the Red Sea will be considered a military target and will be engaged,” the statement said.
It is not clear why Trump is doubling down on his show of impotence. This tweet went live at 5:36 AM EDT, as in after the second round of Israel attacks, which is guaranteed to elicit a response from Iran:
My guess is that Trump thinks this sort of thing will calm investors’ frayed nerves, since most look to be badly addicted to hopium.
Are some officials feeling the need to make excuses?
BREAKING: This Is A Pretty Stunning Admission.
A White House official is now reportedly saying Trump made a “fundamental miscalculation” when it comes to Iran.
For months, Trump has been saying a deal with Iran was close.
Just today, he said Netanyahu would have “no choice”… pic.twitter.com/pSX8jVWOh7
— Brian Allen (@allenanalysis) June 8, 2026
Annoyingly, even with a fake ceasefire and now rapid escalation, the press keeps duly selling the canard that “talks” are anything other than an empty exercise, here Trump administration market manipulation plus Iran feeling obliged to live up to its standing as a mature nation. See this Bloomberg landing page headline as an example:
“Falter”? Help me. Iran had made clear it was not budging on its demand for a return of its frozen assets as a condition for getting out of bed. It might conceivably accept less than $24 billion:
Mohsen Rezaei, senior military advisor to Iran’s supreme leader, said in an exclusive CNN interview that a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei will not happen. He said that negotiations are currently at a standstill and that Trump must break the… pic.twitter.com/yI7X5TDJN6
— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) June 6, 2026
This was the US’ insulting counter-offer reply, per Bloomberg in US Floats Steering Frozen Iran Assets to Gulf Allies for Repairs
The Trump administration is seeking to steer Iranian assets toward helping US allies in the Persian Gulf rebuild from damage inflicted by Tehran, and to repair any future destruction.
The effort, which was described by a senior administration official who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly, is unfolding alongside fitful talks between Washington and Tehran on a potential agreement to extend a truce in the Iran war. Negotiations appear to have bogged down over Tehran’s insistence on the release of some $24 billion in frozen Iranian financial assets….
The Trump administration’s approach would put some of the assets on a different path. The Treasury Department will use all tools available to allow Iranian assets to be used by Gulf allies to support rebuilding, the official said…
An initial step is already underway, as the US government looks to calculate cost estimates for the repairs.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has directed his team to assess conditions among US allies in the region and request comprehensive estimates of the costs associated with repairing damage inflicted by Tehran since the start of the conflict, the official said.
Yes, the US seriously acts as if Iran will be put on an allowance based on what the US thinks reconstruction will cost, and foreign states will be allowed free access to Iran and profit from the rebuilding. Did the Trump Administration manage to hire some of the staffers from Weekly World News to dream schemes like this up?
Iran’s chief negotiator Ghalibaf later made clear that the attacks on Beirut further proved US/Israel duplicity, which means discussions are pointless. From MB Ghalibaf, as translated by Twitter:
1/ They are neither committed to a ceasefire nor believe in dialogue, and by demonstrating through the naval blockade and violation of agreements regarding Lebanon that they only understand the language of power.
2/ The naval blockade against the Iranian nation and America’s green light today to the Zionist regime turn American and regime bases and assets in the region into legitimate targets. The hand of our armed forces is open, as always.
Similarly:
⚡️Iranian official says, “At this point, reaching an agreement [with Trump] is not really feasible.”
🔺 “The primary person responsible for the current situation is Donald Trump himself,” the Iranian official told me, referring to Israel’s massive escalation in its attacks…
— jeremy scahill (@jeremyscahill) June 7, 2026
If this tidbit is true, it suggests Trump is ditching the Pakistan channel negotiating channel:
The US asked Qatar to mediate a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Tehran responded: a ceasefire on all fronts or no ceasefire at all on any.
— Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 (@ejmalrai) June 8, 2026
Israel is looking more and more regged. Recall that IDF leaders have been reporting that the military is on the verge of breaking. Again from Middle East Eye:
Israel plans large-scale mobilisation anticipating prolonged conflict, report says
The Israeli military is planning a large-scale mobilisation of reserve forces, with units expected to be deployed along the borders with the occupied West Bank and Jordan, according to Israeli Army Radio.
But Israel is still very effective at kicking down:
🚨BREAKING: Israel has closed all crossings into Gaza and halted the entry of humanitarian aid following Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Israel, cutting off supplies to roughly 2 million Palestinians in the territory.
Israel has imposed similar blanket closures during previous… https://t.co/8SUPMV1kHl
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) June 7, 2026
And on the real economy front, Brent crude rose by 5% but is still bizarrely below $100 a barrel. But some key markets in Asia are selling off hard in the wake of the AI rout in the US on Friday. From Bloomberg in AI Trade Unwind Rocks Korean Traders Leveraged for One-Way Bet:
Fear was already running high ahead of South Korea’s Monday open, but the ferocity of the selloff still caught some investors off guard.
Within three minutes of the open, the benchmark Kospi had plunged nearly 9%, triggering a circuit breaker. Trading for small caps was suspended in the afternoon, intraday gyrations ran up the most in a month and an increase in leveraged bets likely compounded volatility.
Friday’s US tech selloff and a 42% wipeout of a triple-leveraged Korean exchange-traded fund were the warning signs. By Saturday, viral memes were circulating of precariously-stacked dishes ready to crash. In group chats, traders outdid each other in predicting doomsday scenario and the start of a protracted downturn….
Monday’s rout underscores how South Korea is fast becoming the poster child for artificial intelligence exuberance, concentration risk — and its fragility. The heavy weighting in memory-chip and other AI-linked shares, amplified by retail leverage, made it at one point the world’s sixth-largest stock market but also the most volatile…
Korea’s 14-million strong day traders, who carry considerable heft in its $4.5 trillion equity market, have been at the center of the swings. Margin debt has climbed alongside the rally, with leveraged ETFs tied to chipmakers drawing billions of dollars worth of retail money. While foreign investors dumped local shares this year, the cohort known as “ants” have aggressively stepped in buy.
“Those using leverage are basically in a panic mode,” said Jang Eun-jung, a retail stock trader in Seoul.
The Financial Times warns of contagion in Global stocks slide led by meltdown in South Korea:
Global stocks fell on Monday, led by a meltdown in South Korea’s tech-heavy index, as investors ditched the AI-related companies behind this year’s blistering rally.
In South Korea, the benchmark Kospi plunged at the open, triggering a halt in trading. It closed down 8.3 per cent, while chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix dropped 10.2 per cent and 7.7 per cent respectively. The two companies account for about 40 per cent of the index.
In Tokyo, the tech-heavy Nikkei 225 closed 3.9 per cent lower, while the broader Topix fell 2.5 per cent. Taiwan’s Taiex, where chipmaker TSMC dominates, fell as much as 6 per cent before closing down 3.5 per cent.
In Europe, the broad Stoxx Europe 600 was 0.3 per cent lower. Chipmaker ASML, Europe’s largest company by market value, initially fell more than 3 per cent before reversing course to trade flat on the day.
Monday’s declines in Europe and Asia follow a 4.2 per cent drop in the Nasdaq Composite on Friday, the biggest since April last year, after a strong US jobs report prompted traders to raise bets on higher US interest rates.
And again from Bloomberg, Indonesia Market Rout Deepens as Bonds, Currency, Stocks Slide:
Indonesia’s markets slumped on Monday, led by a sharp selloff in sovereign bonds, after the government’s latest attempt to shore up the currency failed to ease concern over its economic management.
The 10-year bond yield surged 36 basis points to the highest in more than a year, after Bank Indonesia said on Saturday that it’s working with the government to boost returns so as to support the rupiah. Still, the currency touched another low and the benchmark equity index fell.
Policymakers vowed on Saturday to stabilize the rupiah and attract inflows, as concerns over the nation’s fiscal spending plans and President Prabowo Subianto’s interventionist economic agenda unsettle investors. The market selloff picked up momentum last week as lawmakers expanded supervision of the central bank, a corruption probe was launched, and new rules governing commodity exports were unveiled.
On the energy front, yet another DefCon One alert being ignored:
RED ZONE BY SUMMER: BIROL CALLS FOR THE IMMEDIATE AND UNCONDITIONAL REOPENING OF HORMUZ – OR GLOBAL PAIN INTENSIFIES
Fatih Birol has just confirmed the scale of the disaster facing global energy markets. The current crisis is already larger than everything the world lost in the… pic.twitter.com/sZHnDE7eYl
— Mark (@Mark4XX) June 7, 2026
Another vector of harm as shippers face longer routes on top of higher costs for fuel:
Container shipping rates are surging amid the Iran War:
The spot rate for a 40-foot container from Asia to the US West Coast jumped +$655, or +20%, over the last week, to ~$3,933, the highest in at least 6 months.
At the same time, the rate from Asia to Northern Europe jumped… pic.twitter.com/k5xr5Rik5o
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 7, 2026
And beef price increases in the US are having an effect even before herd losses to screwworm have yet to really bite:
Texas BBQ spots are shutting down due to high beef prices:
“The biggest reason that the price of beef is so high is that the supply of cattle has been diminishing. With lower supply, there’s going to be higher prices.” https://t.co/08OMJCXeO0
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) June 7, 2026
UPDATE: The fresh sighing on the Bab el-Mandeb. Hormuz Letter is reliable by Twitter standards and this is consistent with Iran’s threats:
BREAKING: Iran says it has now fully blocked the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, along with the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with the next step being strikes on oil, gas and energy infrastructure of US-allied Gulf countries in response to today's Israeli strikes on the…
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) June 8, 2026
And while I do not see a report on PressTV, Aljazeera, or Middle East Eye and I cannot access Tasnim (which is often a bit slow in providing English language updates), YNet had confirmed Houthis renew Red Sea blockade on Israel, which is well short of a full closure. We’ll know soon enough whether Hormuz Letter got out over its skis.
UPDATE: 11:00 AM EDT. A new Janta Ka segment includes a statement from an Yemeni armed forces spokesman. He says the Bab el-Mandeb is closed [only] to Israel but is pretty emphatic about that.
All for today! See you tomorrow!
All done! If you arrived before the time of this comment, please refresh your browser and re-skim.
I listened to the Isr-Ir situation unfold in real time on Mario Nafwal’s streaming youtube show. His guest was Scott Ritter. There was a lot of “this just in” reporting as they relayed the latest information from various ME news outlets.
My impression was T told Netanyahu to stop attacking Iran during a phone call. Right after the call, Netanyahu basically flipped off T and continued attacking Iran. Iran responded. Then Ansar Allah aka the Houthis in Yemen entered the fight.
Apparently T told Netanyahu if he attacked Iran again without waiting a for a few days the US wouldn’t step in to help. Clearly Yahu didn’t believe T really meant what he said, that T would buckle again. (After all, the US congress just passed a National Defense bill merging US military with the IDF.)
Basically everything you’ve written. It was wild listening to it happen in near real time.
Yahu makes T looks like a chump. And T lets Yahu get away with it. Presdient chump. sheesh! /smh
US congress allowing the folding in of israeli welfare to be included in the defense dept pork machine , so no one has to know how much money and control the terrorist zionist entity is actually getting is a crime against the people. This is an act of treason.
I really hope all the republicans and democrats that voted to let a genocidal jewish supremecist abomination in the back door to the us funding spigot. Not to mention all the judicial /regulatory protection that will go along with it.
This is another “more vile than I can really imagine”… kinda move. They have no shame.
The NDAA 2027 has passed out of House Committee. As of this morning there has been no floor vote either in the Senate or the House. Yet.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/8800/all-info
If you are interested in keeping the fox out of the henhouse via Section 224, it might be a good idea to contact your representatives in Congress to let them know your thoughts on the matter. Soon.
Called all my reps in Texas and they all have their phones on answering machines. They must be getting an earfull and don’t want to subject their staff to the backlash.
Well, he is a chump — he makes Commodus or Nero look like brilliant, insightful leaders by comparison.
Commodus and Nero were Romans, at least. I don’t know what country these clowns serve. Compared to them, Vidkun Quisling was a Norwegian patriot.
“Netanyahu” means “gift of YHWH” in Hebrew. “Yahu” is a kind of nickname of YHWH. Where does YHWH keep his gift exchange?
Trump is his latest Truth Social post is still trying to hype up what is happening to Mr. Market-
‘Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on “Peace” are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a “Final Deal” is reached. Things should move quickly. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP’
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116714035637911912
At this point Israel and Iran are not paying attention to his blathering as what he says is so detached from reality. Both Israel and Iran are in a fighting mood and negotiations are dead in the water.
The markets are showing signs of becoming drug-resistant to Taco. Crude is up, and Chevron and Exxon Mobil stocks are up premarket. Granted, they were up a lot more before his last Troof Social sh1tpost. So the sh1tposts still have some effect, but it is diminishing as the market needs bigger and bigger hits off the crack pipe to get the same high.
Looks like the market took a giant toke this morning. This is Market News from the Fidelity site around 10:00AM EST: as reported from Reuters.
US STOCKS-Wall St gains as chips rebound, Middle East tensions ease
I was focused more on black gold a.k.a. crude oil, which is still up for the trading session, but yeah, the overall markets look like they hit the Troof Social MAGA bong hard this morning.
Listening to CNBC, there is a mania to get onboard the Space X IPO. I wonder how that will end?
The SpaceX IPO gives new meaning to the old phrase, “Sky high valuation.”
My dad was in the stock biz and anything involved in the space race was a hot item in the early 60’s…
He told me if an IPO for United Space Industries or something like that, and it went up a bunch until somebody realized they were all about storage space-not outer space!!
Ah ok. That statement explains why oil price went down $5 in the last hour. Blocking Bab-el-Mandeb seems to have no consequences.
If the closure is real (we said that is not verified) but has not been reported in the financial press, it has not happened as far as investors are concerned.
I have just seen a clip on Janta Ka with a statement from a Yemeni armed forces spokesman. He said the Bab el-Mandeb is blockaded….against Israel.
So Hormuz Letter got it wrong. I will need to be more careful when they are alone in making a claim an present no source.
FYI there is a Yemeni telegram channel that reports in English.
Its Bab Mandeb Yemen.
Among many thoughts I have is:
This greatly increases my belief in the “Bibi/Isr have serious Kompromat on Trump” theory we discussed here repeatedly around the beginning of the war.
Who but Bibi has humiliated Trump (i.e dumped a big bowl of mash on his head) this much without consequence?
They didn’t even try not to be blatant.
Missed you! Glad to see you back.
Thanks Yves!
I’ve still been reading your daily updates but have been focused on real life stuff too much to have had anything to contribute here. That, and the conflict has been in a holding pattern for weeks.
Thanks also for your your continuing wonderful work.
Maybe the real test of AI’s credibility will come when Bibi releases the kompromat, Trump denounces it as AI-generated, and Trump is believed. Would help vaporous AI stock for a few days.
That would be a good deflection. Presuming that the kompromat is sexual, I would expect Isr to be able to present the victim as further evidence. I don’t think that evidence of financial skulduggery would be effective against Our Donald, as firstly he has fended off that sort of claim for years, and secondly he doesn’t find that embarrassing.
Having read Whitney Webb’s One Nation Under Blackmail and having thought about this a lot over the years my guess is some combination of:
*Released by a 3rd party NOT obviously connected to Israel.
*Video of a type that is not easy to claim AI about (if that even exists in 2026)
*A convincing large trail of evidence that can be followed back in history to pre-AI days
*Potentially living witnesses/victims to give evidence
*Multiple incidents showing extreme sexual misconduct (worse than the allegations that have already aired)
*Possible evidence that humiliates Trump also (think pee tape but more so)
*Likely widespread serious financial misconduct proof
*I’d guess bodies in there somewhere, though maybe only indirectly linked to DJT
Trump is a sloppy, profligate 80 year old with a lifetime of bad behaviour. I imagine it would be a huge dossier. Individual pieces of evidence can be challenged. The whole caboodle together less easily.
I think you’re right about what a strong indictment would involve.
I can also imagine apparatchiks creating a dense fog of AI-generated material showing every political leader since Jefferson in bed with anything that breathes.
The whimsical hope here is that Trump might actually believe he can refute the charges and thereby feel more free to cater to “business opinion” along the conflict-restricting lines Yves and others here have raised.
There’s already a “convincing large trail of evidence” starting with the Epstein releases and clumsily mentioned and then not released material.
Trump knows that current serious reportage on this is hidden from MSM viewers, who suffer from TL;DR (rather, TL;DW) and denial.
The bad news needs to be sound-bite long, shock and awe content.
The whole caboodle together less easily.
Would that be … a canoodle caboodle?
It seems that an essential character trait for most politicians is to have no sense of shame or remorse whatsoever. Trump takes those traits to entirely new levels. I’m not sure that there COULD be canoodle caboodle that would affect him.
On the other hand … what if the caboodle involves his finances?
Another possible explanation is that the war and its consequences are so unpopular in the US that Trump must publicly distance himself from being in any way involved with it.
trump is either so loathed, or the cause of so much personal bitterness, in the usa ,that trump must distance himself from trump as best he can; he must make the point that trump was fake, but that he (after some cosmetic tinkering, and ozempic) is the real deal. Saying that he never campaigned on starting new, stupid wars, as the trump (sic) now says, is a good start to begin that distancing.
In terms of power, Netanyahoo is making Trump look like Biden 2.0, or in Nixon’s words — “a pitiful helpless giant”
Netanyahu has a long history of treating US Presidents as servants. When Clinton met Bibi in ’96 just after Bibi had been elected, he lashed out in anger after their first meeting saying ‘Who the f*** does he think he is? Who’s the f***king superpower here?’
Trump has now effectively answered those questions – and it is not good.
I’m a simple guy, so distill to too simple an answer too often:
Isn’t it the Epstein / Israel/ Oligarch puppet-master thingy?
“Oh, what a tangled web we weave / when first we practice to deceive!”
Puppetry just for—You doin’ Voodoo
Blonde headdress in dyed Yak hair
Made by honest people who live in Yurts
Finished in mango make-up & up on heels, The She-demagogue Puppet
or alternatively marketed as “The Colored President” $1.75
(Buy now while it still offends, maybe, races & tribes)
—Just a tease—
Dimitri Lascaris’ tweet reminds me of a thought that’s been bugging me for a while, that the relationship between Israel and the USA is this: Israel is America’s excuse. The USA is a bloodthirsty settler colony and domineering, duplicitous imperial overlord with liberal pretensions. Israel is its perfect excuse. “Crazy Netanyahu! But Israel is our ally so we have to help.” Liberals get behind that. So the most most sociopathic hawks can and do drive the bus. Understanding and using this is Netanyahu’s great accomplishment.
Israel is the excuse for wealthy Israel supporters in the US to dominate our politics and gain many favors that maintain their wealthy status.
Whereas the notion that the interests of this subgroup are the same interests as 300 plus Americans is completely false. The current worldwide disaster is the result of a worldwide oligarchy out of control and that in turn arguably tracks back to the defeat of socialism at the end of the Cold War.
In most Western nations the politicians serve the oligarchs, not the people. In 20c there were a couple of moments when it looked like this could be different but…
I agree with Carolinian: back when there was a Soviet Union capitalism didn’t dare show its true face, then suddenly there were no Soviets to worry about, so here we are… Of course, it’d be remiss not to factor-in the 1992 elections when the New
DealDemocrats purged the party of true liberals and populists in their quest to win-over suburban republicans and wealthy “elites” in a move that truly secured the bulwarks for our present-day oligarchs, who, incidentally, are many of the same people who greatly profited from the rape of Russia and Eastern Europe as a whole back in the 1990s.I often wonder what our dark and dismal decade will look like after our regime falls.
You nailed it 100%.The demise of/absence of real countervailing power,made raw capitalism show its true colours(again).Looking at the current European situation,I think we(as unwashed)Europeans are lost.We have become( as I read this morning)”Wohlstandsverwohnt”.Turned into fat cats.Look at France.Look at….
From all I’ve seen so far, I agree with Carolinian.
I agree more with Ben Panga just above that Trump is more a compromised puppet, that the US is not pulling any strings beyond being essentially, through Congress and the President, under control of those who’s primary interest seems to be Israel. The US is essentially a colony, at this point. We who rail at sites like this have essentially no power. It’s as has been opined, the great mass of American people have zero influence, despite what polls may indicate on any topic.
I think this war is consistent with Washington’s well-established stance w.r.t. to Israel and Iran. It’s just that where previous presidents were more cautious about Iran, Trump is extraordinarily stupid, was high on his Venezuela adventure, and believed Netanyahu that taking Iran would be easy.
I guess time will tell whether Trump was duped, was in reality following orders, or will it even matter? I’m of the mind right now that the “following orders” line trumps(hah!), but again, for whatever difference that makes down the line. It just appears more and more to me that the US has little actual agency here with we the people having zero.
Yup. Hence the ludicrous “angry Biden” schtick.
“Regardless of which political party or coalition is in power in Israel, and regardless of where public opinion in the U.S. is moving, the U.S. government’s “commitment to Israel’s security is ironclad,” as Vice-President Kamala Harris put it.
The U.S. sees Israel as a critical “strategic ally” in the Middle East. During his recent meeting with Herzog, President Joe Biden repeated a line he famously said in 1986: “If there were not an Israel, we’d have to invent one.””
https://theconversation.com/biden-says-the-u-s-would-have-to-invent-an-israel-if-it-didnt-exist-why-210172
Maybe having Jordan or KSA be the USA’s strategic ally would have been better.
Having a strategic ally that is surrounded by 500million people who dislike them, an ally established by a USA/Uk murderous land grab in 1948, seems like a bad idea to me.
The USA could have “brought” Saudi Arabia to democracy and had an oil rich county as an ally.
I don’t put much stock in the combined introspective wisdom of the elite wannabes Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.
Perhaps they are not unbiased and thoughtful people looking out for the USA’s general populace.
I think you will find very little respect for Biden/Harris among the commentariat here.
Isr is the aggressor, Iran is the defender.
Iran says Israel must ‘learn a lesson’ after latest attacks
Iran telling Israel that the ball is now in their court and maybe attacking Beirut again would not be a smart move on their part. And by calling a halt now, the US does not have a chance to get fully involved in the action.
This is a really interesting development. I think it’s the first time that Iran has retaliated for Israeli strikes not directly against Iranian interests or on Iranian territory.
This might be the “thin edge of a wedge” to expand a protective umbrella over more of Lebanon and eventually Gaza and West Bank.
(IIRC, it has been inquired in NC comments over the past year why Iran did not intervene to protect Gaza and West Bank. Perhaps there is a plan to do this)
Hezbollah should qualify as an Iranian interest.
Let’s get this straight! The official Zionist party line is Israel is not the aggressor and didn’t invade Lebanon, it is defending itself against attacks by Hezbollah. And Trump isn’t letting Israel defend itself. Now I get it /s
The 15-Hour Fight With Iran Showed the Bind Israel Is In NYT
Cargo Vessel With Indian Crew On Board Sends SOS Call After Suspected Attack Near Hormuz
Good! We need to see more of this. Especially directed at India.
Modi can eat a big consequence burger for siding with the Zionists.
Knowing Modi’s history, I don’t think he cares. His callousness and contempt towards ordinary people is well known (2002 Gujarat pogroms, demonetization, Delhi riots, deaths during Farmer protests, COVID deaths, the current deadly heat waves). The list goes on.
But I applaud Iranian intel and research (if it was them, I don’t rule out Israeli false flags). The ship is owned by a company from Gujarat, same as Modi’s home state. Trying to hit him where it might hurt.
According to CNN it was attacked by US forces for violating their blockade.
I guess Modi should call his friend ‘Doland’ and ask what’s up.
Lebanon needs to be included in the ceasefire, along with release of assets. Ceasefire is one operation in the grand strategy.
The significant, ignored/hidden by Trump/media, operation in the greater conflict is the energy embargo!!
Shuttering Red Sea and now tighter closing Hormuz is the main act in terms of operational art that contributes to strategic design.
Bigger news than a rocket barrage is: oil weapon is being applied harder and longer!
Too many heads in sand!
Will Hormuz and Red Sea shipping recover to 40% by Sep 2027?
Do you really think so, that there’s some kind of comprehensive strategy, purpose, with the US planners, plotters, their actions in this war having effectively shut down and caused to be rerouted the petroleum supply all for long-term geo-political purpose. Is it something like that one podcaster/blogger suggests, that this is all been planned to gain a strategic advantage involving energy over say, Russia and China? I’d like to think so in terms of, for good or evil, at least our leaders have a discernable purpose. If would make me less fearful of a chaotic outcome.
However, in my mind, seeing as crudely as I do what’s happened so far, especially with Trump’s loose-cannon-like somewhat deranged reactions to events and pronouncements, sporting-wise I have to favor the chaotic, bumbling, reacting to immediate pressure analysis with no particular long-term strategy. Trump was convinced (by BN?) that he could repeat his Venezuela “victory”, and here we are today.
Pretty sure Centcom has claimed this as a US attack on a “shadow fleet” tanker.
I’m not clear on why Fatih Birol of the IEA is insisting on no-fees transits. Surely any transits at all are better than and more desperately needed than no-fees transits, surely any transit fees are worth paying to avoid the impending doom he describes?
It isn’t the fees themselves.
I read his “no fee” language as no Iranian oversight of transit. Iranian oversight of transit means two things. First, ships from “unfriendly” countries, or heading to “unfriendly” countries, will not be let through. I recall hearing recently that something like 10% of the 2k ships stuck in the Gulf presently have either some ties to Israel, or were heading there.
Second, shipowners and insurers are going to self-correct to the extent they either do not want to deal with Iranian oversight, or are afraid this will lead to further escalation down the line and wish to avoid getting stuck inside the Gulf again. [Insurers will do this via premiums, shipowners via redirecting traffic to other locations.] Or, at least, that’s the assumption.
In other words, just about any “big and reputable” global energy analyst today is saying that even if the war ends tomorrow, under the Iranian transit regime we are never, NEVER getting back to 100% of pre-war traffic. Some point to Bab-el-Mandeb, which I believe was at 70%; last week I’ve heard one or two guys give estimates like “45% in 2027”, that’s, again, if the war ends tomorrow, which it isn’t going to, clearly. Now, one may agree or disagree with these estimates, but there you are…
…so from that standpoint, what Birol actually wants is everything goes back to Feb 27. Also, I want a pony.
The issue with paying a fee to Iran is it is a violation of the US/EU sanctions on Iranian shipping/banking. If a fee system goes into effect in the SOH, either the US/EU sanctions on Iran must go, or US-aligned countries (hello GCC) have a problem with Uncle Sugar and the EU if they pay to use the SOH.
Though if ships transiting the Strait were just to carry two (one for in, one for out) ~67 pound (at today’s per ounce price) chests to be turned over to the IRGC toll booth operators, kinda like throwing a big, a REALLY BIG, dime into the Hormuz Toll Basket, how’s the US going to know?
Gold. The original crypto. Accept no substitutes!
Hey, I can get you a pony! I can even get you a pony that poops rainbow skittles! (Well, they don’t actually look much like rainbow skittles anymore, but still…) But what these guys want? Nuh-uh.
Freedom of navigation through territorial waters is one of the universal rights of man. /s
It comes down to normalcy bias.
I don’t think that’s true anymore per recent US and EU acts of piracy even on the high seas.
True, but piracy and the like is for the west only. Could you even imagine a world where Iran is allowed to issue fees!? Also as a bureaucrat it is important to toe the party line.
Torah! Torah! Torah! 2-the sequel…
I heard that it is having a much shorter run than the original.
p.s.
Sequels almost always suck except for Godfather 2…
Some of certain faiths believe that the upcoming Second Coming will be a block-buster!
That is how every gentleman should gift a lady.
We meat puppets can make an atomic bomb or a device as intricate as a smartphone but the March of Folly keeps trudging along.
Where do bad folks go when they die?
They don’t go to heaven where the angels fly
They go to the lake of fire and fry
Won’t see them again ’till the fourth of July
Meat Puppets, Lake of Fire.
One can hope.
As Zorba the Greek would say, they are ‘food for worms.’
“Sequels almost always suck except for Godfather 2…”
Terminator 2.
Sam Raimi’s Spiderman 2.
Aliens.
Honorable mentions to LoTR: The Two Towers, though it’s the second part of a trilogy.
I can continue.
I remain in awe of Linda Hamilton’s fitness regimen preparing for T2. Tough lady.
“Aliens” was a pretty good sequel too, I thought. Not the masterpiece Gf2 was I’ll grant you, but it didn’t suck.
For a Few Dollars More.
One sequel that definitely does suck is, “Trump 2: World On Fire.”
However, if there is any sucking to be had, my money is on “Trump, The Prequel: The Roy Cohn Years.”
Im so old that I still remember all the buzz from a month ago about how Iran faced certain destruction from frozen/impacted wells as their exports declined.
What ever happened to that?
No one remembers that, now.
Iran’s economy is also going to collapse “any day now.”
Just like Russia’s for over 4 years now. But, hey — I’m sure that the 21st sanctions package will succeed where the previous 20 failed …
And I am Marie of Romania 🙄
I’ve never seen AuBugs the likes of Persians, and as their Rial has been going down the toilet, old yeller was going in the other direction.
With a culture going back thousands of years, the people there know what has worth when things fall apart. Same with India as well.
Historically, Persia was very much an adept of a silver-based standard (like ancient Greece — silver drachma, and ancient Rome — silver denarius). After all, it controlled the most important Western land-based stretches of the silk road, and China never departed from a silver-based standard till after WWI.
Hm. Maybe they would consider a discount on Hormuz Tolls if paid in gold….
“Iran’s economy is also going to collapse….”
As the US/Isr military manage to cut off reliable, relatively inexpensive petroleum/energy supplies to the West.
Just like RU was going to collapse any day now after the US/Ukr? cut off reliable, relatively inexpensive gas/energy supplies to Western Europe. (There goes Germany’s manufacturing might and the EU economy.)
I think this is colloquially known as ‘shooting yourself in the foot’, or in this case shooting yourself in both feet.
It’s been almost 20 years and Western leaders – left and right – have learned nothing. They have spreadsheets. They are oblivious to realpolitik.
China and RU are no doubt watching the twin unfolding situations with approval. “Never interrupt your opponent when he’s making a mistake.”
One might suggest that Trump will become a new “Earth Father” who orchestrated a drop in world wide CO2 production and encouraged many nations to become more independent of large powerful nations.
It will enhance the Trump brand as he pivots to his new persona.
‘Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺
@ejmalrai
The US asked Qatar to mediate a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Tehran responded: a ceasefire on all fronts or no ceasefire at all on any.’
This sounds like the Trump White House being duplicitous again. If they shift these “negotiations” from Pakistan to Qatar, then it may be a way of resetting the clock back to zero as everybody will have to get back to speed again – or so they will claim. So it is another way to delay things and run out the clock as Trump is sure that Iran is about to collapse aaany minute now.
The NDAA and Trump’s recent behavior have made it clear that the Zionists control the US Government.
Merging the IDF with the US Military is NOT going to go over well with either the US Populace ( Who don’t matter) or the US Military as a whole.
If the Laws don’t matter at home and abroad and the desires of the People doesn’t matter at Home, then what’s left is overt force.
Expect to hear more about ANTIFA!!! soon.
When the economic shock hits hard, starting soon, it’s going to get interesting real quick.
The message has been “Everything is fine, everything will be back to normal any day now”.
Erm.
I expect this is what the archived LA Times article about war games in LA suburbs is about.
The “UFO” problem in New Jersey two years ago was beta testing for Ukrainian and Israeli drone attacks deep in Russia and on Iran. In LA I expect the Administration is trying to figure out how to prevent the huge chunk of the population they are about to starve from taking to the streets.
Would love to be wrong.
A BIG problem with the responsibilities of citizens managing and maintaining a democracy is their inherently short attention span.
As opposed to the relentless of Israel toward achieving a Greater Israel, and the need to dominate the world, effectively, given its inherent illegitimacy. That’s a strong statement, I know, but if one takes the time and expends the effort to read into the situation it becomes more and more exasperating.
One simple and effective way to appreciate the Truth is to conceptualize this entire conflict as a War, and all these episodes as battles (1967, 1973, etc). Viewed that way you can easily discern the Israel pattern of conquest. And it is a perspective vigorously defended against by Israeli hasbara.
NOW, let’s take Tom’s post and observation. All quite true, but, consider this, from 2013:
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20130911/08530124484/new-leak-shows-nsa-shares-raw-domestic-communications-data-with-israeli-intelligence.shtml
The security of the US subordinated to that of Israel is hardly news. AND THIS, pertains to intelligence on every US citizen who happens to mouth-off on blogs like this one. Don’t think for a moment this program and relationship has been sunseted or minimized. Or that they are not at some personal risk if they cease to be some nobody letting off a bit of meaningless steam. (Our host should take note, presumably having a sense of the reach of this blog). This is not paranoia.
Not to put too fine a point on it, Israel’s control of the US becomes unavoidable with the Camp David II talks in the nineties, where Clinton was manipulated by Barak (the Israeli PM at the time). There are many public quotations of Clinton crying at his impotence that are positively cringeworthy, yet those negotiations were sold as a success that the uninvolved American public apparently bought.
Seems to me there are a lot of older hands contributing here. My only vision for how this all plays out in any way that is not apocalyptic is if a younger generation wakes up and basically reinvents the mechanics of traditional (US anyway) democracy. It’s clearly not up to snuff, and any number of impossible to promulgate constitutional amendments are not going to happen.
Time for a Revolution
So does Galligula accuse Bibi of being anti-semantic?
Thanks for the report. Currently I’m reading a good book called All the Shah’s Men about the Mossadegh coup that kicked the whole thing off. By the time it happened the latter was an old man who had spent his lifetime opposing colonialism and he was up against a still very imperial (psychologically) Britain which viewed natives and their grievances with contempt. Arguably all these attitudes transferred over to the Zionist colony which was indeed their creation.
Macgregor has pointed out that this situation isn’t only about Netanyahu and his political troubles at the moment are because the Israeli populace think he isn’t being ruthless enough. And so that includes both the original Euro centered leadership and the newer religious fanatic segment that came from other regions. A civil war is needed but it may have to be the rest of the world against the lingering colonialist rump. Some bad and outdated ideas just won’t die.
So, the plan is, Iran’s missile stocks get reduced by its stoush with Israel, and when the US believes Iran has less to retaliate with, The USA pounces ?
So how much (repairable) damage to Israel is The Acceptable Level – after all, regardless of whatever everyone thinks about Israel, it’s still only A Pawn In The (US) Game…
No, it isn’t. The opposite is true. The US was coerced into the war by Israel. Our spokesmen could not even come up with a coherent story about why we started it.
onemust consider US and Israeli missile stocks as one depot, and the depot is getting low and the US cannot build more (rare earths), whereas Iran has no trouble with resupply and restocking.
However, to assign the word “plan” to US actions is putting a lot of heavy lifting on the word “Plan” My feeling its its throw spaghetti (family version) against the wall again (third time) and see if it sticks this time. Sure it didnt before and the definition of insanity is…
And Aliens. :-)
I was wondering what the ICE Goons reminded me of; The Colonial Marines!
“A Ziomorph may be involved.”
“It’s a bug hunt.”
Well, IQs certainly seem to have dropped…
EU sanctions Iranians over restricting naval traffic in Hormuz
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/eu-sanctions-iranians-over-restricting-naval-traffic-hormuz-2026-06-08/
Hormuz Strait will be open with transit fees Iran envoy Moscow quoted
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/hormuz-strait-will-be-open-with-transit-fees-iran-envoy-moscow-quoted-2026-06-08/
EU sanctions Iranians over restricting naval traffic in Hormuz
Oh dear. Another sanction. HowEVER will the Iranians cope?
I see the world devolving into two camps – the wealthy and energy rich sanctioned nations and the morally pure and upright sanctioning nations.
‘The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter
Container shipping rates are surging amid the Iran War:
The spot rate for a 40-foot container from Asia to the US West Coast jumped +$655, or +20%, over the last week, to ~$3,933, the highest in at least 6 months. At the same time, the rate from Asia to Northern Europe jumped +$793, or +27%, to ~$3,649.’
But if actual oil prices go through the roof in the next coupla weeks triggering demand destruction, would that not mean that rates would go down again as fewer goods will be moved by ship courtesy of a world-wide recession?
Including the imported drugs (India, China) needed by typically unhealthy Americans.
Imagine a new inflation-adjusted oil price peak, ie above 225+/b… shipping costs must cover costs whether truck, rail or ship. The cost of goods might fall, but these too must include the elevated fuel inputs. Granted, when price forces overall demand for oil drops 15% or so, fuel price will also decline.
The so-called clash between Trump and Netanyahu looks to me like theatre – consistant with the Brookings 2009 paper ‘Which Path for Persia’ – the ‘leave it to Bibi section’. This avoids the US being more directly involved in an unpopular war. The US is doing the same in Ukraine – pretending the war is nothing to do with them while still providing Hornet AI drones and Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR).
The Israeli’s say the targets were agreed with the US, directly contradicting Trumps line that he told Netanyahu not to do it. Trump is not only a pathological liar – he is also a first order cretin.
But the Unhinged Emperor is the best the corrupt Democracy Inc. in the USA can do, and he is a more honest and accurate reflection of the empire. As Caity Johnstone wrote over 5 years ago. https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2020/06/04/the-establishment-only-dislikes-trump-because-he-puts-an-ugly-face-on-the-empire/
While I do not doubt that Mossad/CIA have major dirt on the emperor, that does not explain the long-term US (and British) foreign policy toward West Asia. In the larger picture, although very different situations, we can see similarities with another proxy state, Ukraine. As Michael Hudson has been saying for quite some time now: “The US is willing to fight to the last Ukrainian and the last Israeli”. Prof. Hudson’s opinion is not shared by many, however my bet is with his assessment. If anyone doubts that, they can go hang out in Tel Aviv. I prefer to be thousands of miles away in Splendid Isolation.
Johnstone had a list in one of her recent articles about all the times the same Israeli shill/reporter had come out with this same “they’re mad at each other” story–but about Netanyahu and Biden. It’s cheap propaganda that doesn’t even try hard to be believable and gets recycled over and over, like when they keep returning to the “Iran must never have a nuclear weapon” BS despite Iran saying numerous times that they are forbidden by fatwa from having nuclear weapons. What you get a sense of is the profound contempt that the media and government spokespersons and figurehead “leaders” have for the American public. It’s like they’re laughing behind their hands as they dump the same garbage stories on their constituents’ heads.
US considers buying Chagos Islands: report
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-considers-buying-chagos-islands-telegraph-reports-2026-06-07/
Turkey’s Interior Minister prays for control over ‘liberated’ Jerusalem | The Jerusalem Post
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-898624
UK readies sanctions against Israel to deter proposed illegal West Bank settlement
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/07/uk-sanctions-israel-deter-proposed-west-bank-settlement-palestine
China adds warheads as nuclear powers ‘walk away’ from disarmament: SIPRI
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3356269/china-adds-warheads-nuclear-powers-walk-away-disarmament-sipri
The Real “Divide” Among Democrats Over Israel Is Between Party Leadership and Voters | Supporting Israel is now a fringe position among Democratic voters. Why does the media keep covering it like a 50/50 issue?
https://theintercept.com/2026/06/04/democrats-israel-voters/
On the 24 billion dollars of frozen Iranian money: I heard talk that the US is considering giving the money to the GCC as effectively “reparations” for damages caused by Iranian attacks. I also heard talks that the GCC may loan Iran 24 billion to be secured by the Iranian assets. If this could be done, it would result in a work-around of the restrictions.
That doesn’t mean that Israel may not have been able to knock any agreement off the rails with its recent strikes and counter-strikes.
I do not like coming down on you, since your comments are generally good, but please read the post. That is required in our site Policies. We already covered what the current US scheme is, including that Treasury is attempting to estimate how much damage Iran has sustained, and that would be the basis for contracting to the GCC states to then go in and make repairs.
So the US is taking the position that:
1. Iran will not get or control funds. The are to be treated like a child with the “parents,” the US and Gulf states, controlling what the expenditures are on and how they are mede.
2. The US in its infinite wisdom will determine what are bona fide war damages and how much repair ought to cost.
Sorry, listening too much to Mario Nawal yesterday. You are absolutely right in your assertion of the official US position, but there seems to be no chance that Iran would agree to anything along those lines. . . but if there was some kind of agreement ever reached, it looks like some kind of tentative plan to use the GCC as a shell to release the money or the benefits of the money in some form. My assessment at this time is that a deal isn’t going to happen before another round of escalation at least though.
I read that differently–the plan isn’t for the Gulf States to use the funds to make repairs in Iran, it’s for spending in the Gulf States themselves.
Maybe Bessent misspoke, or maybe the official misquoted him, but on its face this implies that they’re flipping the Iranian reparations demand upside down. The estimates are of damage inflicted by Iran on US allies.
The reality is that the US (Bessent) has put this out as just another non-kinetic move in the unfolding battle.
And the REAL battle field is how public opinion overall can be moulded and maintained. The battle is one of BS and metaphysics: It is all about creating reality, which Trump seems to understand quite well at some level.
On the one hand all such talk is just BS, but it is a malleable proposal/threat that can be extended or modified in any # of ways and reacted to in any # of other ways.
‘I also heard talks that the GCC may loan Iran 24 billion to be secured by the Iranian assets.’
Does that mean that Iran will have to pay back that 24 billion dollars which is actually their own money? In any case, Trump would never allow it unless he had possession of that 24 billion so he could dole it out to the Iranians provided they ‘behaved themselves’ and maybe have them kick in a billion or two to his Board of Peace.
No, the possible game is that the US releases the money to the GCC to fund reparations, the GCC then loans Iran $24 billion using the Iranian money as collateral, Iran then defaults, and the GCC keeps the $24 billion. Iran gets their money, Trump says I’m not like Obama, I gave the money to the GCC, if they were dumb enough to loan money to Iran, that is on them.
I’m willing to bet that at the back of Trump’s mind, that he is coming up with a scheme where he will have the Iranians block Chinese construction companies from rebuilding Iran’s destroyed buildings but will use US companies to do that work instead – most of whom will have ties to the Trump family or his buddies. And Iran would have to agree to this so that they could sign his “peace deal.”
“And I would have gotten away with it, too, if not for you kids!”
Please stop misleading readers. I spend a LOT of time and effort giving readers the most accurate information possible and do not take well to commenters undermining that. There is a LOT of unfounded speculation being treated as if it were real.
This is NOT the US plan. The plan is set forth in the post.
From Yves’ analysis,
One wonders if Iran designating its campaign against Israel as Operation Nasr, as opposed to part of Operation True Promise, means that Iran is making Israel a second and explicit front of its combat.
I followed the escalation closely yesterday, and in one of the live feeds I thought I saw an official Iranian statement describing it exactly as that, but I cannot find it now.
I heard something similar during the Mario Nafwal and Larry Johnson livestream yesterday. They wondered the same thing.
As if the “electorate” have a choice. Just more tragic humor. Many people, even now, still believe the fairy-tale that the US has a functioning democracy where the will of the people is reflected in their “elected” representatives. More tragic humor. Elections Inc. have become PR campaigns where the illusion of choice, distractions, false narratives (aka lies and BS) are pushed and billions in revenue generated.
The US is an oligarchy, and we see the convergent interests of major centers of power: MICIMATT/MIC, BigOil, BigFinance, TechBros Inc., etc. Like Ray McGovern, I consider AIPAC et al to be part of the MICIMATT. All of these epistemic communities support and benefit from US foreign policy. I may have missed something but I see almost no resistance to the war or US policy from any faction of oligarchy.
Since political bribery has been formalized by SCOTUS, the thin curtain has been lifted, but many turn away and pretend not to see the ugliness.
The Republican base, in free primaries, NOMINATED DONALD TRUMP for the presidency. The AMERICAN PEOPLE voted for him to be president in 2024. Those who didn’t vote chose to do so. In 2016, the majority of the oligarchs were arrayed against Trump for sure. The American people chose him OVER the vote of the oligarchs.
Kamala Harris was not chosen in a primary. The Democratic base did not get the same choice, but even if Newsom had been nominated instead, I think Trump would still have been America’s pick.
I was here, reading NC the whole time during and before the election. The commentariat was very sympathetic with Trump/Vance. If what you’re saying is true, then the Trump PR was incredibly effective even here. There were many, many frothing screeds against the Democrats (from IM Doc, for example, and others), while the criticism of Trump/Vance was much more measured and nuanced. People who pointed out that Trump was an huckster and extremely dangerous were accused of TDS.
The TDS people were right. Trump is worse than Biden, by significant degrees. I, someone who despises Kamala Harris, believe she would have been a better president.
When Putin said at one point–I’m paraphrasing but I think this was the gist–that he would prefer a Biden-like president to Trump, at the time people believed he was trolling. I think in fact he wasn’t. Trump is too impulsive to wield the awesome power of the United States. The Blinken/Sulliven/Austin administration was somehow more responsible–this despite the fact that they participated in/green-lighted the ongoing Israeli genocide in Gaza. What they did not do is allow Israel to pull the US into a war against Iran in addition.
Biden set the presidential bar the lowest since George W. Bush. Somehow Trump has managed to limbo below it.
Yes I think you underline my point, although you didn’t address the main issue: the US is an oligarchy, political bribery is legal, money is free speech, Let’s not be naive or superficial about this.
While the DT is more openly corrupt, this is being allowed by the other institutions of power. All of the US oligarchs support him and benefit from his policies. DT is a symptom of a steadily worsening breakdown of the rule of law, and worsening institutional corruption. But this should not be surprising, history rhymes heavily here.
The Blinken/Sulliven/Austin administration was somehow more responsible–this despite the fact that they participated in/green-lighted the ongoing Israeli genocide in Gaza. What they did not do is allow Israel to pull the US into a war against Iran in addition.
I see no mention of the Ukraine debacle. The railroad unions being railroaded, vax and relax (or get fired)
And thus the democrat party is 100% responsible for the 2nd reign of al Marilagi. As you point out, on the important stuff they agree completely, trump was just smart enough to lie about it, the dems just assume everyone knows how naturally superior they are and don’t bother, well not always, they say they care about people, they just don’t say the people they care about are the rich ones….but as leonard said everybody knows…
AIG bailout, mark to model, SVB , Mershistory didnt start yesterday
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xu8u9ZbCJgQ
Mers…history
O! did I forget Ocare and kneecappping bernie who as we now see is pretty centrist so own goal of the decade there…I’m Speaking! Brat Summer…the list just goes on and on and on.
Basket of Despicables.
The “frothing screeds” against the Democrats were because they deserved it. They continued the long-term neoliberal/neocon project with no pause whatsoever, differing from the Republicans (including Trump’s first administration) only in the type of bulls**t rhetoric they used to hide it. They were in power from 2021 through 2024 so they received the bulk of our “froth” then. The “TDS people” were NOT right. They bought into a Russiagate scandal that was not only false, but part of the larger anti-Russia propaganda effort linked to Ukraine and our long-term efforts to isolate and destabilize that country. The commentariat here was NOT “very sympathetic” toward Trump/Vance. We all knew what Trump was. But going into 2024 there was no evidence that Trump would actually be *worse* than the Biden administration in its actions (as opposed to its rhetoric), except perhaps with Israel. And regardless of the fact that Trump lies continuously, he, indeed, WAS a target of a rolling coup during his first administration and a series of “trumped” up lawfare attacks after to keep him grounded (predictably these just made him more popular, demonstrating Democrat/Establishment stupidity). So his constant martyr act and claims of “conspiracies” against him were not just made up. And people *not* suffering from TDS could see this quite clearly.
Given what Trump has done *since* the 2024 election, I have said more than once, sarcastically, that I might have to revisit my contempt for “lesser evil” voting. His administration is truly horrible. But aside from a few occasional outliers, I challenge you to find anyone in the regular commentariat who would disagree with this, or who hasn’t been very critical of Trump and his band of fascists since then.
I think its necessary to see how it all shakes out in the next few years before assessing the evil of lesser evil, Trump was voted in to take a wrecking ball to the establishment (you know himself). Instead he bumbles around like a bull in the china shop of empire. Of course if there is no vote there will be no more lesser evil justification for voting in more D neoliberal serfdom.
And to sum it all up in simple terms: There aint no greater evil than genocide, and there is no such thing as lesser genocide.
To go just a bit further. The economic system that drives the usa and the west is popularly called capitalism. This system is the engine that is driving the whole scale transformation of our world into an environment virtually incapable of supporting human civilization. I think that the name for this is ecocide and is a result of a political and economic choice by western governing bodies: the political actors serve capitalism. In our country, we talk of the uniparty because we understand that both major political parties serve this interest, and not the collective interest of everyday people. Because of this, it can be honestly argued that capitalism is killing us and the world we live on. Genocide on a global scale. To be a friend of the people, so to say, one must be anti-capitalist. Capitalism is more than ready to practice, and accept as normal, genocide. Gaza is a terrible example of this truth, and leaders in the usa and the west, seem intent on governing their nations into extinction. It’s fair to say that their servility to the governing system has driven them mad. I think that the choice is between socialism or extinction, and explains a great deal of our collective angst.
And as I recall, many on NC were equally against Trump as an option. Many were also optimistic that Trump would be a less effective evil, and perhaps, stop the wars. His administration gave us a head fake prior to taking office when Witkoff put Bibi in the corner for a weekend and a ceasefire in Gaza was negotiated. But since then, it has been all down hill.
Opinions related to Harris being a better President are impossible to prove or disprove. I can say that based on the evidence available there wasn’t any information I could rely on to estimate that she would have been better. Just differently worse. These kind of idiot kings and queens are all that our system can produce now. Any attempts to resist the demands of the deep state will not be tolerated.
I’d also caution against reading too much into what commenter here say as a general tone of what people believe when it comes to these topics. I see a lot of venting. I see lot of relief in being able to take off a mask. I don’t recall then, or now, seeing any kind if gleeful Accelerationist beliefs being expressed. This group is more than capable of seeing the car crash we’re headed for. So we’re beside ourselves at our leader’s decision to continue to drive straight into the wall.
Lebanon says Israel has bombed it nearly 3,500 times during ceasefire
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanese-pm-says-israel-has-bombed-lebanon-nearly-3500-times-during-ceasefire-2026-06-08/
‘Europe can no longer afford to say we are enough on our own,’ says Turkish official
https://www.turkiyetoday.com/nation/europe-can-no-longer-afford-to-say-we-are-enough-on-our-own-turkish-official-3221455
59 years ago today, Israel deliberately attacked the USS Liberty killing 34 and wounding 171 American soldiers. The attacks took place in broad daylight while the ship was in international waters and displaying the American flag.
For those not familiar with the story, and maybe some who are, here’s Jeffrey St. Clair’s essay in “Politics of Antisemitism,” which he reposted at Counterpunch this weekend.
Israel’s Uprovoked and Unanswered Attack on the USS Liberty
Star Trek trivia:
The ‘T’ in Captain James T. Kirk stands for Tiberias.
I don’t remember the name of this city appearing in the news I’ve read in my entire life.
I’m taking this as a good sign.
Captain Kirk’s middle name is Tiberius not Tiberias. It’s after Roman Emperor Tiberius, not the city.
City of Tiberias was founded in year 20 (by King Herod of the biblical fame), and named after Emperor Tiberius. So captain and the city do share a name.
It would be in the best interests of the US not to have entangling alliances with Israel. That won’t happen with the Trump Administration. One of Iran’s operational objectives would have to be to collapse the Trump Administration with the intent that a new ‘regime’ will be more US centric and perhaps, more reliable in negotiations. That Trump’s decision making ability is becoming paralyzed is evidenced by his storming out of a news interview, i.e. not enough bandwidth to handle the pace of events. If Robert Pape is correct in that “Bombing to Win” doesn’t work, then neither the US, Israel, or Iran will prevail with air strikes. That would imply that in order to neutralize Israel, Iran will have to defeat Israeli ground forces, however, improbable that might seem. In the event, Iran will target Israel’s supply lines; directly, the material needed for Israeli society to survive and indirectly, the flow of arms from with US ( interest rates, the price of oil, and US public opinion). Trump’s platform is shrinking and sooner or later he will have no more room on which to spin around.
But, as always, who defines US “interests”?
Even if the Unhinged Emperor is deposed somehow, I don’t see any change in US policy. Electing the loyal opposition isn’t going to do much (they are also openly bribed by oligarchy). Even if the DT is impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate, do we really expect any substantive change? It would provide dramatic entertainment and distraction but: Would Vance or anyone else suddenly become trustworthy? Would they give back the stolen Iranian assets? Would they push for dramatic change in long-term US policy? I highly doubt it.
Sadly, it is not the interests of the majority, but the interests of the oligarchy. As I noted above: all of the centers of power support US foreign policy. Almost all of these interests benefit from it. There is no way to vote against the interests of the ruling oligarchy. Whaddawe gonna do?
I think that’s pretty spot on.
I’ve heard that Israeli economy depends on about 300k critical workers, many of whom have ready employment in the west. I’ve also heard theres been about 1 million emigrating in the last year even though imo Ben gurian has been closed to emigrants at times.
Anyway, it might be one thing to live in a country busily genociding a couple million plus beginning a similar op on another 6 mil, but being bombed, running in and out of bomb shelters might be another thing altogether. First to go might be spouses/kids, but workers will follow.
Think of not just tech workers but those running desal/refinery/sewage/power plants/schools. Even replacing these with low cost Asians might be difficult if Israel becomes a war zone and Iran routinely mows the grass. IMO Israel has to dominate surrounding countries to maintain genocides/wars. Next election might be interesting.
Iran can absolutely achieve its goals by using targeted bombing. The US and Israel cannot. That is one reason why we see such frantic and bizarre reactions from the White House and Bibi.
If Iran is able to control the strait of hormuz, maintain its oil infrastructure largely intact, and exert its will on the conflict resolution process, while damaging US and Israeli interests in the region, they win. Those are tasks that can be accomplished by just bombing.
The US and Israel need to effect political change in Iran, protect fragile assets in the area, maintain global scale economies that rely on transport through the region, secure global supplies of energy, secure safe transport for that energy, all while not backtracking on any of the maximalist aims of the US and Israel, and do all this with a dwindling supply of materiel. We CAN’T do all that by just bombing. We also can’t accomplish that without a significant ground campaign. Which… we kinda sorta can’t do right now either. Israel can’t even pretend to mount a ground campaign sufficient to effect Iran or its allies to the extent needed right now. Which is why many are so nervous about Israel choosing to use nuclear weapons.
Trump is doing all this for a handful of people. Those people and Trump do not care what any majority thinks. Trump and Bibi will continue this until they are forced to stop. And even then, the Grahams and Adelsons and whoever else is behind this disaster will scream at Trump to continue. There is no order in the world capable of making them stop until a tremendous amount of economic damage has been inflicted on the economy of every country the US has relationships with.
That’s why even though I appreciate the daily updates, I find them maddening. No one is going to stop. We’re all just going to continue this insane dash over the cliff, carried along by a tide of myopic lemmings. We are already seeing grotesque explosions of homelessness in our country. We are going to see tank bottoms and worse soon. God help us all.
If I remember correctly, of the Iranian frozen assets only $12 billion are directly at Trumps “disposal” through executive order. Other funds are subject to either congressional or international sanctions, requiring other bodies to take action to release them. I believe this is why $12 billion figure is often quoted for the start of negotiations as this can be released quickly by Trump himself, whereas other funds would require legislative or international action.
If true, an Iranian negotiator should demand $15B upfront.
(IMO)
Whenever this comes up, people in the US administration and elsewhere immediately leap to their feet and scream about how hard it would be to free up this sanction money and give it back to Iran. There’s no way we can possibly do it because it requires legislation and executive orders and all manner of difficult things.
Please. I don’t think Iran cares about the source or the procedures used to free up the $24 billion. I’m sure they would be happy with just a check for $24 billion, which I assume is about what the Iran war is costing the US each day.
Or, we could do the Iraq war thing:
Sounds crazy, right?
They could even use one of those famed Magic Money Computers that Musk told us about.
“It just emits credit…” *smiles sheepishly*
What if we offer them a 10% stake in SpaceX? Are they dumb enough to accept a deal like that?
When those bricks arrived in Iraq, initially some service people were using them as footballs in a game before they went off to where ever they were going without so much as a signature.
OilPrice finally just said it aloud:
The Countdown to a Major Oil Price Surge Has Begun
Didn’t that get mention around here March 3rd or so? But anyway, it would seem that the curtain is lifting and the main show is about to begin.
There are some signs I am seeing in the market, as a “pretty good” trader (I still stink at picking individual stocks, but I have a good feel for the market and options.)
Number one, it’s almost as if someone is trying to monkey-hammer paper crude futures every chance they get. I would not be surprised if Bessent is up to some monkeyshine, maybe using his buddies on Wall St. Crude should be $100, not $91 and change where it is trading on the CME paper futures market.
Forget the latest ceasefire fails and “Troof Social” lies, the Strait has been closed now for over 100 days and counting. Physical shortages and drawdowns of the SPR ought to be kicking in any day now.
The signal I am seeing in the options market is very high volatility on options for oil stocks, particularly Chevron and XOM. I am not giving trading advice here. Just observing … calls expiring in 10 days have over $3/4 of time premium when theta decay should be killing that premium. Almost as if somebody expects a big move before Thursday, June 18, when they expire. Hmmmm.
“Iran is now a de facto “regional security guarantor” and this trend will not stop now.”
ground invasion imminent. https://ajsignalnotnoise.substack.com/p/usa-israel-and-iran-11-timelines?r=83255l
Thanks for this, farmboy. I have forwarded.
the linked article says Q3. And there is no indication the world economy can survive to Q3 with the oil loss.
It actually says Q3 of 2027!
Makes no sense to me.
The piece gave me the impression it was written with AI.
As for what it says, I can buy that treachery is the name of the game, and Taco may be playing for time to get past the midterms.
But these sort of predictions never seem to pan out, and the prognosticators usually don’t stick around to see whether they verify or bust.
verifiable track record.”Over the past several months, I have published 11 timeline forecasts on X and many of them on this Substack. The kinetic strikes restarting in the first two weeks of June. The April ceasefire failing within 60 days. The Lebanon ground operation expansion. The Iranian 1.5x retaliation doctrine. The Hormuz toll architecture. Each one landed inside the exact windows I predicted. Each one is on the public record.
This is timeline number 12. The ground invasion of Iran begins between Q3 2027 and Q1 2028. The highest-probability window is September through December 2027. The probability is not 50/50. By my framework, it is approximately 75/25 and rising weekly since the ceasefire talks were publicly announced. Here is the architecture I am monitoring and reporting on, condensed.”
It’s just not feasible. There is nowhere the US could muster the troops and equipment for a ground invasion that wouldn’t be in range of Iranian missiles and drones. If tried the troop and equipment transports would be sunk or heavily damaged before they could even unload. I guess Trump and company could try something that monumentally stupid but it’s hard to see how it continues after a few troop transports are at the bottom of the sea with the troops on board.
Where are the troops supposed to come from for this ground invasion? It would probably have to be more than half a million. I can’t imagine the US and Europe ponying up that many. Maybe hire more Colombians and Brazilians the way Ukraine does? Or Al-Qaeda legions from North Africa? I would hope Iran’s immediate neighbors would not sign up for such a suicidal project.
If Iran can kick American forces out of their already bombed bases in Iraq and Kuwait, I could then imagine a ground invasion of Jordan and Israel by Iran and Iraq by Q2 of 2027. Iran has the million man army already. With continuing missile support they could probably coup Abdullah and wipe out the IDF. But that’s probably not their style. I mean, if they operated like the Empire does, people like Smotrich, Ben Gvir, Huckabee, Tom Barrack, and Rafael Grossi would have already departed this plane of existence for their eternal reward. But it doesn’t seem to be the way they do things.
farmboy, this tweeX of his is equally impressive:
https://x.com/aj_geo_analysis/status/2052900917549437329
Iran and Israel say they have halted strikes on each other for now
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-new-israel-iran-strikes-wont-affect-peace-deal-2026-06-08/
Germany and France drop joint fighter jet project
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/german-french-leaders-unable-resolve-fcas-fighter-jet-dispute-sources-say-2026-06-08/
Best word I have see in describing Trumpo’s psychological state – mythomaniac …. seems applicable too his entire life …
Art Berman (@aeberman12 on Twitter), who’s Daniel Davis Deep Dive appearance was widely circulated on NC, has done a complete 180.
Either he is much less competent than people (including me) give him credit–otherwise he would not have made such dire predictions in such adamant language on Davis’ podcast–or he’s taking a contrarian tack for clicks.
Perhaps he’s just inclined to bold language for attention-seeking reasons. Anyway, that doesn’t mean there isn’t truth to what he says.
Right now, Art Berman is arguing the “tank bottom,” “impending crisis” narrative–the same narrative he very confidently sold on Daniel Davis’ podcast–is a “meme” that’s now been contradicted by the evidence.
He argues that no such crisis is impending, that there’s ALREADY been suitable demand destruction + increased exports from the US + juiced oil pipeline flow + SPR draws to accommodate 90% of the loss from the Strait being closed. This, according to Art, has been priced into oil futures (explaining why they haven’t shot up as expected). Rather than “hitting the wall”–per the “mindlessly repeated” mene, according to Art–there’s going to be localized supply chain disruptions or something like that. I haven’t quite figured out exactly what his prediction is now.
Anyway, I don’t think I’ve ever seen quite this profound of a whiplash from a public expert before. Anyone who’s been circulating Berman’s Deep Dive thesis should be aware that he has, as of the last few days, abandoned that dire take entirely.
Wow, that is amazing. Rory Johnston was on Macrovoices last week (he’s the second interview after Michael Every) and his take is that China has dramatically lowered its imports since the war began (on the order of 6mm bpd). To him this means that China has vastly larger oil reserves than anyone understood and that they are drawing these down and that this lower demand has kept prices lower than they “should” be.
He says to watch China’s imports. If they start to tick up then things will get ugly fast as there is no slack in the system. Unfortunately no one knows how much oil China has stored and so trying to speculate on timing is difficult.
I also question the tank bottoms are a meme thing. We have had major oil company CEOs coming out and saying there’s a problem. How does Art explain that?
I forgot to add the China lowering imports thing! Art had a tweet about that too (so include that in the list above with the pipeline flows/SPR draws/US exports).
Yes, in the face of the oil company CEOs seemingly very, very concerned, Art’s new gospel is disorienting to say the least. But there is some historical reason to be skeptical of the dire argument Berman peddled on Daniel Davis Deep Dive.
I remember for awhile there were many in the podcast-verse who were doomsaying about European gas prices. Another “tank bottom” situation. The horrors they predicted never came to pass. Perhaps something similar is happening here, if you buy Berman’s sudden conversion?
It’s hard to accept because the situation now is so much worse supply-wise than the situation for Europe’s gas in the early years of the Ukraine conflict. Also there’s the global scope and the commodity angle to complement the oil shortfall. The complexities of this crisis, therefore the risk of “unknown unknowns” lurking amid the Strait closure’s already-terrible implications, seem far greater.
It takes a special kind of person to observe nationalist rationing to protect interests and confuse it for a blue sky. But I guess that matches what else I’m seeing. So many people simply cannot imagine things being different. The oil must flow because it MUST FLOW. The stock market will go up because it MUST GO UP. I can continue to use Amazon and shop for cut rate stuff at Costco because that is the only way I can make my life work, etm.
Guilty pleasure lately (if you’re Catholic enough, everything is a guilty pleasure…) is watching the Squatter Hunters show clips on A&E. Most of these people are not homeless or drug addled vagrants. They’re fairly well off people balancing their expenses by finding ways to not pay rent or mortgage. The entire situation is awful and I am a bad person for indulging in the viewing. But watching it you see that we as a society are completely screwed.
Interesting. Maybe that CEO was reading Berman?
I’m inclined to believe that the shortages won’t be evenly distributed. As customer of last resort how is the US going to benefit from China’s largess?
How much demand destruction will it take to break a society? This question in good faith. I’ve been thinking about it and I have no idea.
…
Care to share a link?
I haven’t followed Art’s work in months and might as well resume now.
havent dug in to berman’s 180, but that smells a lot like bullshit, to me.
maybe he’s attempting a pump and dump?
physical reality exists.
it takes things to make other things…and one cannot rejigger a refinery overnight…and one also cannot rejigger a refinery to turn lite sweet out of the dregs of the Permian into diesel.
one cannot also take canadian tarsands and magically convert them to useable feedstock for what we actually need, without destroying the EROEI…and one cannot magically and overnight rebuild the venezuelan oils infrastructure…that We Destroyed,lol.
all this talk about USA!!!! fuck yeah! as a new saudi arabia is just silly jingoism.
we’re not yet at tank bottoms(give it a week or two), we are very near Field Bottoms, as in Depletion.
oil should already be 300 per barrel….but for a buncha pretenders who go along with the utterances of a madman that just so happens to boost their paper wealth between friday and sunday evening.
Fie!
the july 4th will be a display of how juvenile and silly we have become as a nation, and a lot of people i know IRL will lap it all up, post on faceborg, etc.
ill avoid it all, but my feeds will be inundated with flags and patriotic nonsense.
and then the reality will set in…and theyll be looking for someone to blame.
i, among many, many others…who have nothing to do with the decisions over decades that got us to this juncture…and who, after all, warned incessantly about this very thing…will carry the brunt of the blame.
for we live in an, until lately, a covert narcissistic empire…and everything i have learned from living next door to mom has prepared me for the coming out of trump as the first overtly narcissistic leader.
as Ambrit says, stay safe.
shit fikken to get weird.
Checked out his twitter posts.
Very sus, to say the least. Many in the comments are finding issues with his thesis.
Hopefully someone with more knowledge and experience in the field can weigh in, if they so choose.
Today’s Iran/USrael war memory:
March 30: Taco claims that he is negotiating w/ a “new, responsible Iranian regime” to end the military operation (Epstein Fury?)
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4570148-trump-says-us-in-talks-with-new-responsible-regime-in-iran-to-end-military-operations
We need a bigger laugh track … was this the equivalent of O.J. Simpson’s statement that he was searching for “the real killers” of Nicole and Ron Goldman?
‘And are some of those Iranian negotiators in the room with us right now?’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2nQnLcTNuo
this Larry is the one i still take seriously.
he exhibits a grasp of the strategic situation better than most of the folks i see on youtube, because he was in the room.
again, strategic thinking gives me a woody.
only other one on youtube i pay acute attention to is Alistaire Crooke…and i prefer to read him, but hafta search around for a week to find where he’s written lately….which says a lot, that hes apparently been banned a lot,lol.