[Today’s post launched well before complete because information pollution plus unexpected demand requiring me to go out, not a crisis but the sort that takes time and money. Please return at 8:30 AM EDT for a final version]
The “deal” is faltering despite the fact that the US and world urgently need shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to return to an approximation of the old normal to have any hope of preventing a deep recession, even global depression. Trump made clear he was cognizant of that risk when he justified the very-much-and-correctly-Iran-favoring Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) by saying he did not want to be a second Herbert Hoover and oil inventories would hit critically low levels in about four weeks.
Yet despite that, Trump has continued to work against his own interests by including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, personally loathed by the Iranians, as prominent members of the negotiating team.1 Hegseth threatened Iran immediately after the signing of the MOU, a violation of its first clause. But it was Trump himself who triggered the walk-out by Iranian negotiators.
"We'll take over the rest of your country … I'll blow the shit out of them" — here is Trey Yingst's entire segment about the bonkers phone call he says he had with Trump this morning that apparently included threats to assassinate Iran's leadership, impose draconian US tolls… pic.twitter.com/RLi9bos14Q
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) June 21, 2026
The US had a couple of days where it wanted to portray itself as a friendly peacemaker that just wants the world to feel joy and now Trump is back to threatening to murder Iranian diplomats if they don't let Israel do whatever it wants. https://t.co/qWyFOHcmPN
— Séamus Malekafzali (@Seamus_Malek) June 21, 2026
Earlier from Trump:
In the end, the talks continued, but not directly but through the Qatar and Pakistan intermediaries. And after again closing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has reopened it. But how many insurers and vessel operators will be willing to commit to sending a ship into the Gulf to pick up a fresh cargo when the status of the Strait of Hormuz is still in play? As much as the fate of Lebanon is very important to Iran, and may serve as the vehicle for slow-motion regime change in Israel, the world is on the receiving of what happens in the Strait of Hormuz
In the other “not good signs” category, the talks as originally scheduled to start last Friday, were planned to run three days. This one did go for 12 but that is still short of what was previously seen as desirable. Admittedly, even though the chief US and Iran negotiators have left Geneva, technical teams are staying to try to achieve further progress. However, as we will soon discuss, Israel is still refusing to comply with the first paragraph of the MOU, that of vacating Lebanon, and the US does not appear to be taking measures it could use to force cooperation. In addition, there is other fog of information in play, such as Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi saying the US has removed sanctions on Iranian oil when in fact OFAC has not done so.
Trump in particular and many of the US pundit class are in the state I heard described as “They have changed their minds, but they have not changed their hearts.” And with Trump being fabulously emotional, his lack of internal acceptance is more than enough to wreck what was already set to be a difficult process.
Nevertheless the negotiators are putting happy faces on the fact that they got somewhere. For instance, from Bloomberg:
- Iran said there had been “major progress” in all-night discussions with the US as the warring sides try to reach a peace deal within two months.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the mediators, Qatar and Pakistan, had managed to ease some of the tensions over Lebanon, and Iran was beginning to see financial benefits from last week’s memorandum of understanding.
- Negotiations are set to continue throughout this week, with lower-level delegates discussing technical matters, and a resolution to the fighting in Lebanon will be decisive for the success of the US-Iran talks.
Forgive me, but “ease some of the tensions over Lebanon” sounds like a desperate effort to conflate exchanges of ideas with action.
More from that article:
Iran said there had been “major progress” in all-night discussions with the US, as the warring sides try to reach a peace deal within two months.
The countries began technical talks in the Swiss resort of Bürgenstock over the weekend, following their interim agreement last week that led to a ceasefire extension and Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Plenty of obstacles remain, however, including Israel’s war in Lebanon against Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militant group. At one stage on Sunday, Iran said it would suspend talks — but never actually did — after US President Donald Trump threatened military action against the Islamic Republic over its funding of proxy groups in the Middle East.
On Monday morning, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the mediators, Qatar and Pakistan, had managed to ease some of the tensions over Lebanon. He added Iran was beginning to see financial benefits from last week’s memorandum of understanding, including waivers of US sanctions on its oil exports and assets in countries such as Qatar being unfrozen.
As we will show below, the oil sanctions have not been waived.
As an aside, one of my big peeves about these negotiations is that the participants (ex the US side, which is in recidivist jerkdom mode) too often adopts old norms of diplomacy, which is to engage in extreme candy-coating.2 Lavrov and more recently Chinese diplomats, particularly Wang Yi, have been deviating considerable from those no doubt strong habits and are often refreshingly blunt, as a response to persistent bad faith behavior by the US. Sadly it seems only superpowers can regularly adopt this mode of discourse.
But the new norms of occasional Foreign Ministry candor (also observed from time to time on Israel’s genocide) means it is even more likely that the press, particularly the financial press, which does not regularly follow diplomatic negotiations intently, read more into official statements than is really there. And as we have repeatedly pointed out, too many in the financial press seem to be in the business of keeping the Confidence Fairy happy, as opposed to reporting, and amplify thin shreds of positive-seeming developments, particularly in headlines, which then influences how readers interpret what follows.
A further issue is that what the Pakistani negotiators say cannot be taken at face value. They have now twice, and highly visibly, been caught out over their skis, first in taking up the false Trump claim that the MOU was to be signed in 24 hours, as in on or right before Trump’s birthday. Now see:
Iran directly rejects Pakistan’s claim that Tehran agreed to lower its enriched uranium stockpile.
Source: Fars News / Writer: Samuel pic.twitter.com/xl44b0IFI8
— Dr Tariq Tramboo (@tariqtramboo) June 21, 2026
More sanity-checking came in a interview of former negotiator Aaron David Miller with Mario Nawfal:
From Miller in a lightly-cleaned up machine transcript:
I’ll just give you my my notion of when negotiations succeed and when they don’t.
They succeed in being serious when in fact four conditions are in place.
Number one, you have two parties who are really serious about getting something done.
Number two, when the two parties have a shared sense of urgency that is to an urgency is defined by how much pain a party is under and what is the perspective perspective gain. That’s the second element shared sense of urgency. In short, they either both in a hurry or they’re both not in a hurry.
Number three is effective mediation and number four is an end product which would allow both sides to walk away legitimately believing that they had got something significant.
If you ask me whether any of these four elements are in place, I would say it’s highly doubtful.
That’s point number one.
Number two, I’m reminded of a phrase attributed to the Taliban, but I think it goes back farther than that.
You have the clock, but we have the time.
You have the clock, but we have the time. And frankly looking at this in relation to the memorandum of understanding, three things have happened in the real world as a consequence of what was agreed to last Wednesday. Number one, the naval blockade is either being eased or eliminated on Iranian po ports.
Number two, the administration has unsanctioned significant amounts of Iranian oil and hydrocarbons.
That’s the second thing. And the third, the military strikes conducted by the United States and Israel against Iran proper and Iranian strikes against Israel and the Gulf have stopped.All three of those deliverables favor Iran.
And forgetting those three things, the Iranians have made not a single concession pertaining to what we we thought was the main purpose of the war. Constraining, restraining, ending, whatever you want to characterize it, Iran’s nuclear program. So my sense is the Iranians are not in a hurry.
Certainly not as as much in a hurry as the president. Now I’ve emitted a fourth piece of theou because it is not yet implemented and that is opening the straits. And that is the single greatest vulnerability that the administration has and that the Iranians do not have.
It is the single greatest embarrassment to the administration that instead of 130 tankers getting through, you had today, I think yesterday, day before, 25 got through, which was the largest number in recent weeks. That number today has been cut in half, if that.
And the Iranians say they’re closed.
That’s all they need to do to create uncertainty and indecision on the part of insurance companies and shipping companies. So my sense is and I have no idea what the last tick tock has been from Switzerland. The Iranians said they were going to walk out. They were insulted by the president’s uh social media post. They’re back on. They’re off. They’re back on. They’re off. I mean this is so built in to the dynamic that if you want to follow this hour by hour making a big mistake.
Confirming Pyne’s and our take:
Call it “aggression by statement”
Just by saying SOH is “closed” the Iran hard liners can impact flows.
Shipowners and insurers are less likely to take chances if things are unclear.
Shipshow (yes, i wrote “ship” but you get the meaning) https://t.co/S8GXhogorC
— Brian Sullivan (@SullyCNBC) June 20, 2026
While we are on the subject of the status of Strait of Hormuz transits:
After a peak of 15 tankers sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, the number is back to 3 today.
My base case is the same as in recent months: the problems in the Strait of Hormuz will last much longer than consensus thinks. https://t.co/oMmWk6p8aC pic.twitter.com/y3oYclQRSW
— Karel Mercx (@KarelMercx) June 21, 2026
The last two day’s lead stories in Lloyd’s List show the degree of ship owner worries. First from yesterday,
Tentative Strait of Hormuz transits continue despite Iranian closure and toll threats:
- US could charge tolls on Strait of Hormuz for ‘Guardian Angel’ service, threatens Trump in response to Iran’s insurance-and-toll scheme
- Multiple vessels alter course or abort transits amid Strait of Hormuz uncertainty, underscoring the immediate operational impact of Iran’s closure announcement and routing demands
- The strait remains a high-risk zone, with war risk premiums, operational delays and diplomatic uncertainty expected to persist as US-Iran ceasefire talks proceed amid escalating maritime tensions
And today: US-Iran talks show progress, but shipping fears another ‘Groundhog Day’:
- Chinese shipping stocks surged again on Monday after mediators Qatar and Pakistan reported ‘encouraging progress’ in US-Iran talks toward a final deal
- Industry observers remain deeply sceptical, with Sea-Intelligence likening the talks to ‘Groundhog Day’ and Xeneta warning that the recovery of MEG box shipping services will stretch into mid-September, even in a best-case scenario
- Unresolved questions are being flagged over war risk premiums, strait toll enforcement, congressional approval of sanctions relief and a 30-day minesweeping window that must close before safe transit can resume
More confirmation that shipper hesitation is well warranted:
Forget the Strait of Hormuz.
No deals. No passage — until:
✅ Complete implementation of the MoU
✅ Full ceasefire in all fronts
✅ All illegal Israeli forces retreat from Lebanon
You don’t get to invade, occupy, and then demand business as usual.— IRAN EMBASSY in KENYA (@IRANinKENYA) June 20, 2026
And thus shipping can be expected to remain at low levels:
Mediators at the Swiss summit are hailing a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
But out on the water, shipping data tells an entirely different story. Here is what is actually happening.
🧵🇮🇷🇺🇸🛢️👇 pic.twitter.com/Pw70pHmaOg— Francesco Sassi (@Frank_Stones) June 22, 2026
This development at Qatar’s LNG operations is not helpful to the energy picture but at this point does look to be an accident:
🚨BREAKING: Explosion and fire at Qatar's Barzan gas plant in Ras Laffan.
Heard 80km away in Doha.
QatarEnergy calls it an "operational incident" during start-up not an attack.
But context matters enormously right now 🇶🇦⚡
What is confirmed?
QatarEnergy: explosion and fire… pic.twitter.com/PAYe6IZU4Y
— Jack Prandelli (@jackprandelli) June 21, 2026
Both for substantive reasons and to illustrate the difficulty of trying to nail down the state of play:
The Iranian delegation is sounding upbeat, saying that “oil and petrochem exports are waived.” U.S. Treasury / OFAC hasn’t yet published any new guidance. Iran has been exporting lots of crude in recent days, and it’s loading oil tankers again at Kharg Island. https://t.co/ETAZ27Htoj
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) June 22, 2026
In keeping, see this fresh summary from the Cradle, based on the remarks of Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati, is more accurate in saying that the MOU called for waivers on oil exports from OFAC but did not say where that stood:
Iran says progress made on unfreezing assets, easing oil export restrictions after Switzerland talks
——
Tasnim News Agency reported on Monday that Iran secured progress on the release of blocked financial assets and the reduction of sanctions-related costs on oil exports following the latest round of indirect negotiations in Switzerland.Speaking to Tasnim, Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati said the discussions, held within the framework of a 14-point agreement, were “intense and difficult” but ultimately advanced in line with the objectives set by the Iranian delegation.
Hemmati added that significant headway had been made on the issue of frozen Central Bank funds, noting that memorandums required under the Doha agreement had been signed and that the gradual utilization of the resources would begin in the coming days in accordance with conditions set by the Central Bank.
On the issue of oil and petrochemical exports, Hemmati told Tasnim that Clause 11 of the Iran-US memorandum called for the issuance of a waiver, which is set to be implemented by the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). While stressing that Iranian oil exports had continued despite sanctions, he said the new arrangement would eliminate the additional costs imposed by restrictive measures.
Aljazeera’s live feed confirms that Israel is refusing to accept the MOU demand of withdrawing from Israel. One header from its live feed after the top negotiators left Geneva:
Israel won’t pull back from Lebanon ‘security zone’: Foreign Minister Saar
This is consistent with the Netanyahu’s position, per the Times of Israel, Netanyahu vows to maintain IDF presence in Lebanon even as issue rocks US-Iran talks:
Hezbollah chief rejects security zone as ‘impossible’ as Iran says deployment violates MOU; Israel said to mull ‘small withdrawal’ if US requests, though not past Yellow Line
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday vowed to keep Israeli troops in the south Lebanon security zone “for as long as necessary” to protect northern Israel from Hezbollah, as the issue threatened to derail talks between the US and Iran, which began in Switzerland earlier in the day.
Israel and Hezbollah traded heavy fire over the weekend, killing several IDF soldiers and dozens of Lebanese, though the fighting halted midday Saturday after Israel’s political leadership instructed the IDF to “hold its fire,” reportedly under heavy pressure from the US, which feared the collapse of the Iran talks.
Israel did behave briefly…..but how long will that last? Recall that Israel tries the stunt of advancing further into Lebanon, increasing its violation of Lebanese sovereignity, and then when Hezbollah shoots to try to force the IDF back, Israel plays victim when they yet again were the aggressor.
An earlier entry in Aljazeers’s live feed questioned whether US and Iran attempt at a finesse could get off the ground:
More questions than answers on Lebanon after US-Iran ‘de-confliction cell’ announcement
Authorities have announced a “de-confliction cell” to be put in place, which seems to be a good first step towards some permanent peace. But we’re not quite sure exactly what it means.
Presumably, it means some sort of disengagement between Hezbollah and Israeli forces and maybe the establishment of a demilitarised zone to separate the two sides. But, as always, because we’re so short on details, we have more questions than answers.
This is an agreement that has been reached between Iran and the US, but there’s no question of Hezbollah and Israel accepting it, presumably given the fact that the two senior partners have both agreed to this. The junior partners will be brought round, but there are going to have to be compromises on both sides.
For Israel, this is very difficult. They have said they’re not going to withdraw from Lebanon. For Prime Minister Netanyahu, this causes all sorts of political problems at home. He has many hardliners in his own government calling for the Litani River, for example – further north in Lebanon – becoming the new de facto border with the country.
So, it’s going to be difficult to get any kind of withdrawal of Israeli soldiers that was agreed in the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US.
Then, there are all sorts of questions about who administers this and makes sure that both sides agree to uphold this so-called deconfliction cell in the south.
One issue we have skipped over but that will come into play if the Trump Administration develops some spine and forces an Israel retreat back to Israel is where that actually is. Chas Freeman has discussed at length Israel’s refusal to settle on its borders as part of its relentless expansionist agenda. So where the Israel/Lebanon border lies is a subject of dispute.
Aljazeera also reported:
Gaza situation worsens as Israeli troops advance, disease spreads
While the world’s attention is on Iran-US negotiations, the humanitarian situation in Gaza remains catastrophic. Here are the developments from the latest UN report:
- The number of reported casualties since a “ceasefire” took hold in October 2025 has reached 1,005 fatalities and 3,157 injuries.
- Israeli troops advanced towards populated areas of Gaza City, forcing dozens of families to abandon their homes.
- Fuel shortages continue to significantly hinder the humanitarian response with aid groups “forced to collectively prioritise fuel allocations to life-saving services and suspend them for non-critical ones”.
- Pest and rodent infestations remain a serious concern with rising temperatures, overcrowded displacement sites, and lack of safe drinking water causing disease to increase>
Gaza situation worsens as Israeli troops advance, disease spreads
And for some schadenfraude that is also informative about these negotiation dynamics:
This was humiliation. No one in modern history has made America wait and beg for negotiations. This was the moment JD Vance should have returned to Washington. The Islamic regime did this on purpose. Trump, if you don't understand politics, you should at least understand… pic.twitter.com/NVWAxr8NMH
— Amjad Taha أمجد طه (@amjadt25) June 21, 2026
I am stopping here because this is an overly dynamic situation. Now that it is the start of the day Monday in the US, one can expect both extreme spin-doctoring and US repudiation of initial settlement of issues in Geneva, as is starting awfully early in the day:
JUST IN: Vice President Vance pushes back on “misreporting” about Iranian assets potentially being unfrozen and says that if any of the regime’s money is freed up, it will go to help the American economy and make U.S. farmers richer:
“We wanted to make sure that we set up a… pic.twitter.com/6CPNzY8uIS
— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 22, 2026
Stay tuned. Unless things go weirdly quiet, see you tomorrow!
_____
1 The Iranians got some digs in:
The Iranian delegation refused to take part in a planned handshake and joint photo-op with the U.S. delegation.
Source: Tasnim pic.twitter.com/Cgpz5LkGTO
— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 21, 2026
2 A college here trained diplomats in the use of diplomatic language. One example he often use:
“Your proposal is being studied” = Fuggedabodit
“We are studying your proposal” = It is getting a look
“I am studying your proposal” = Keen interest
Shipshow indeed.
When that ship hits the sand… Hang on to your buoys!
Re: the Qatar Ras Laffan LNG explosion
My feed has had guys warning for months that restarting processing and mining plants is a truckload more difficult than turning on a light or starting a car.
Those poor bastards at Ras Laffan were, presumably, the guys who knew what they were doing.
Where to now for Qatari gas, fert and He? Where to for those that depend on those outputs?
I suppose that Trump has fallen back on his usual way of dealing with insoluble problems – delay, delay and delay while hoping that something turns up that will deal him some good cards. Problem is that as he does this, things like diesel run down more and more and by the time he actually makes a decision, it is too late. The crisis will be here and then it will be all emergency orders and restrictions. But I am sure that there are people in his regime planning on not letting this crisis go to waste.
Israel refusing to withdraw from*Lebanon.
Israel will withdraw from Lebanon only when US/UN boots on the ground force them out. No I don’t see that as likely either.
Or when Iran bombs the shit out of Israel bases, Nevatim and Ben Guriion. Ben Gurion is in theory dual use but has been so converted to military as to necessitate the restriction of civilian flights.
“Mad” Melanie Phillips, arch Zionist who gets plenty of media space in the Murdoch Times and BBC, is now calling for American boots on the ground to invade and conquer Iran, for the sake of Israel. Whenever she seems to become even more unhinged and Islamophobic, she adjusts her stays and unhinges herself even more.
I continue to be surprised that this did not happen on the first day of the war. Is there some reason why Iran is reluctant to attack targets in Israel? We know perfectly well that it is capable of doing it.
Iran seems to have chased the entire US military out of the Persian Gulf. I’m thinking chasing the Iranian military out of Northern Israel would be much simpler and quicker.
Hardly an expert, but it seems that Iran takes its Islamic faith principals far, far more seriously than the usa and the zionist entity does theirs. The Islamic Republic of Iran seems to actually believe that the harm and injury done to non-combatants, or the innocent, in times of war, must, must be as little as humanly possible. It’s frustrating to those of us in the west, who were led to believe that our civilization, being the result of a judeo-christian belief system, is superior to any other. The fact is that it isn’t. Gaza is the pre-eminent example. We kill and we kill until at last we’re indifferent to all the deaths we’ve caused. We don’t begin to live a holy life. That’s another lie we all have to cough up.
good answer, Erstwhile.
and pretty much what i would have said.
they have moraltiy, and ethics, while we do not.
shame on us.
they answer to their god, and we will, too….even if that god is a greek goddess named Nemesis
IDF will be out of Lebanon when Lebanon is governed by Lebanese. If the civil war ever concluded.
Just a thought: Lebanon and Armenia are two countries that are arguably governed by their respective diaspora rather than the locals. That might just account for a lot of what’s going on lately….
Lebanon has been governed by its regional neighbours forever: it’s just a question of who is highest in the saddle at a particular moment. This will remain the case so long as different groups in Lebanon believe they can get benefits, or seek protection, in that way.
Yes, and it is such a pity to see the Aoun govt. acting puppets for the West. Journalist Laith Marouf calls the Lebanese govt. a collaborationist, Vichy-style regime. With the new balance of power and emerging security framework in the region, I would expect that Hezbollah and Iran will become even more influential in Lebanon going forward. We’ll stay tuned…
Netanyahu was saying in a press conference that Israel occupied territory in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon and have no intention from withdrawing from any of those territories.
If the US and Iran conclude a treaty that does mention Lebanon but does not mention Isr, then if Irs keeps attacking Lebanon the US is under no obligation to back up Isr’s attacks with more money and more weapons. Now, whether or not the US pres would break a treaty with Iran by continuing to ship arms and money to an aggressive Isr, at the risk of Iran closing the Strait and ensuing worldwide economic destruction, is still an unanswered question.
A report came out recently that said that most of the antiair missiles fired to defend Israel were American antiair missiles and not Israeli antiair missiles. If a fight started up between Iran and Israel, would the Pentagon allow Trump to ship much of the remaining stock of antiair missiles to Israel thus stripping American stocks to the bare bones?
Zelensky would not like that. / ;)
(Is that why he’s getting more aggressive against RU directly? Is it a ‘cry for help’ ? / ;)
I hate to be a stickler, but there will not be a treaty. Takes a 2/3 majority in the Senate.
The JCPOA was not a treaty. That is why Trump could tear it up.
True. And during the DT’s first term, he “tore up” the INF treaty which had been ratified by the US Senate. However, we could say that the US Congress is derelict in their duty and given the executive Imperial Presidency unprecedented powers. I’m no legal expert, but this is an example of institutional corruption and breakdown of the constitutional order. The rule of law and constitution have become quaint notions from the past.
if our supposed government is no longer functioning, are we bound to its premises, anymore? its authority?
sounds like its omnia contra omnies, to me.
i warned the gopers in my life for decades that their policies would lead to hobbes’s state of nature/
Last week, Trump said there are only four weeks of oil left to draw from the SPR which, if true, means the situation will become critical in the second half of July.
Iran is now saying the Zionists must fully withdraw the IDF from Lebanon, so either Iran backs down on this demand or else Israel complies, but it’s hard to see either of these two things happening. As long as Iran doesn’t back down, though, whether or not the US can compel Israel to back down seems irrelevant.
Since Iran holds all the cards on SOH, letting negotiations trundle forward and repeatedly collapse due to US/Israeli intransigence and/or perfidy doesn’t matter, because the oil cliff just keeps getting closer.
In fact, it is in Iran’s interest to let this happen.
The only thing Trump has is the Big Lie. They lie about everything and push fake news through Axios.
Tomorrow the IEA data on reserves comes out. It is a weekly report.
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/
If it shows another huge drawdown, we know we’re down to three weeks.
It is not just the SPR. Jeff Currie and others have been going on about how commercial and even consumer inventories are really low. Everyone is betting on lower prices.
If the US does get the tankers stuck in the Gulf out, we may get another week or two before we hit the oil cliff.
What about transit times? Even if a tanker exits the Strait today, I read that it takes 3 weeks to get to Asia. Not sure about other destinations. It seems we may be out of margin.
Crude paper futures are down again today, I take that to mean Mr. Market is still only reading the headlines that the negotiations are still alive and Iran allegedly “opened” the Strait, after closing it yesterday. Natural gas is up, though, likely due to the big boom in Qatar.
The tankers also have to get TO the Gulf too and load, so add days to a week+ to that.
Robert Pape closely interrogated oil industry experts who came to a recent University of Chicago conference on Iran. He says it will take 30 to 60 days before meaningful fresh supply arrives, even assuming a pretty open Strait of Hormuz.
So, as far as consumer products go with, we change our own oil in the vehicles to maintain some level of “know how” and self-sufficiency. Our family’s vehicles all use 0W-20. Over Memorial Day Walmart was selling OW-20 for $16 for 5 quarts (down from low $20s). Now it is back to low $20s, but it is increasingly getting difficult to find in the stores, and the online sales show “low stock” designations to it.
This, coupled with the “tweet” making the rounds in late May stating that Walmart and other major retailers cannot be guaranteed oil deliveries after early June make me think this will go rippling through the system MUCH more quickly than folks imagine. A friend’s friend owns a garage in town (Athens, GA) and said oil changes would be raised from $35 to $99 after July 4th . . .
@Peter Steckel at 8:58 am
I checked with my local garage a few weeks ago. They told me their supplier has assured them there’ll be no shortage here in Eastern Canada regardless of what happens in Iran. Not being a very trusting sort I went off and bought two 5 litre jugs of 0W-20 at Canadian Tire in Ottawa for 40 CAD each or 29 USD. There was lots on the shelves. No-one seems to expect any supply problems. The jugs say made in Canada on them. Don’t know if that matters or not for the price charged. We’ll see soon enough if there are supply problems or big price increases.
Yep, and there’s a steady drip of financial news reporting “progress” and “optimism” on the “talks” or “peace deal” driving prices down.
What a joke.
Article by Larry Johnson (sonar21.com) yesterday gives new calculations of tank bottom being 20% of capacity – not the previosly quoted 270 or 300 MB. This gives a calculated reserve of about 197 MB (calculated as the difference between stock of 340 MB and 20% of 727MB total capacity). From this I reckon that, at a drawdown rate of 16 MB per week, should give 12 weeks (plus a bit) to cliff edge.
Assuming the figures are as quoted ~(given in good faith but no way of really knowing) then this puts the cliff edge mid-September (the figure of 340 MB was 12th June).
These CIA and military types seem not to recognize their limits when they get out of their lane.
His sourcing is poor. He relies only on one, an estimate from the American Petroleum Institute (I assume in a print-type document, as in a short overview of the SPR), which may be out of date and/or politically influenced, specifically, as in not willing to admit the salt caves have deteriorated since first filled in the early 1890s. See from AAPG in 2016:
Robert Pape very recently closely interrogated multiple oil industry experts, together, in person, over an extended period of time. Pape said the oil cliff level was higher and a harder line than most believed.
That converges with what former Goldman commodities research head Jeff Currie, and senior exes at Enron and Chevon have been saying for some time. They have all warning of the cliff coming within what will now be weeks. I would take what industry incumbents are saying all day over an estimate from a single and probably dated document.
Yes, the ‘stogie swagger’ of Johnson isn’t necessarily a definitive source.
@Yves Smith at 10:57 am
“These CIA and military types seem not to recognize their limits when they get out of their lane.”
Indeed they do not. I find it especially annoying when some of them (Col.s McGregor and Wilkerson come to mind) pontificate how the U.S. will go bankrupt, or some similar nonsense, because of the size of the U.S. national debt. You don’t need to understand the intricacies of functional finance to know that deficit-phobes have been making the same dire predictions for at least 50 years and no deficit related disaster has ever happened.
I switch them off the instant I hear that. Probably I shouldn’t but I rely on Yves and the commentariat to pick up important points they may have made that I miss because of my aversion to silly bs.
And think about those ads that precede many of the Judge’s broadcasts.
There is a second oil storage facility in the US. Located at Cushing OK this is a critical node which forms the basis for pricing WTI:
June 17, 2026 [Energy News Beat]- Called the “Pipeline Crossroads of the World” — is facing critically low crude oil storage levels, with inventories hovering near operational “tank bottoms.” As of the week ending June 5, 2026, Cushing held approximately 21.64 million barrels of crude oil (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve), according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.
What “Hitting Tank Bottom” Means Operationally
In oil storage tanks, “tank bottoms” refer to the unusable layer of sludge, sediment, water, paraffin, and other residues that settle at the base. These cannot be easily pumped or processed without operational issues.
At the Cushing hub level, the operational stress threshold is around 20 million barrels. Below this, pipelines lose pressure, blending and transfers between tanks become difficult or impossible, and outbound flows to refineries or export terminals can be curtailed or delayed.
SOURCE:
https://tankterminals.com/news/cushing-oklahoma-oil-storage-hits-tank-bottom-implications-for-energy-markets-consumers-and-investors
According to the above industry publication, Cushing storage reaches tank bottom at “around 20 million barrels.”
The last EIA weekly stocks report for Cushing (see link below) shows a stock level of 20,034. This suggests Cushing is very near tank bottoms. Cushing is more critical to US domestic oil pricing than the SPR stocks.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet PET_STOC_WSTK_DCU_YCUOK_W.htm
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_STOC_WSTK_DCU_YCUOK_W.htm
Corrected URL
They just need a depth gauge guy like in Waterworld.
I nominate Don Trump Jr.
https://youtu.be/tl9nVK5Lx1c?si=Nt8pM3ekuUbtc0NO
Done for today! If you arrived before the time of this comment, please refresh this page and re-skim.
That Trump post is a parody, no? It’s signed “Not DJT” and doesn’t read right to me.
I can’t access Truth Social to check.
I did access and couldn’t find it, so it was either removed or it’s parody. Thing is, these past 3.5 months, Trump DID speak that badly to Iranians on occasion…
I don’t know about the original post, but if you click the links Yves provides above, we see that it appears to be real. It is also consistent with dozens of other deranged comments from the Unhinged Emperor. It is noteworthy that much of the mass media ignored the worst of the posts, “cleaned” them up, or even deleted
It wasnt there last night either–I’d checked Trump’s account not long after that supposedly went up; I’d have noticed it if it were there. It’s not the first “NOT DJT” tweet-image that’s floated around.
And of course it’s consistent with his general derangement, if slightly off in tone. It wouldn’t be much of a parody if it wasn’t, would it?
Not a parody, it’s the Unhinged Emperor! I notice the major mass media outlets either ignored it, or downplayed it. The emperor has no marbles…
https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-rages-he-will-bomb-the-st-out-of-iran-in-hours/
It looks like a tweet-formed reconstruction of that interview.
We are not “agreement capable” when we’ve “won”. So expecting our oligarchic elite (personified by Kushner and Witkof ) to negotiate seriously when we’ve lost, even in the face of looming global economic collapse, is a heavy lift. They are out of touch with reality, and ignorant of history. Trump’s apparent capitulation was only a brief moment of lucidity in an otherwise demented reign. “Apres moi, le deluge”.
If Kushner and Witkoff are part of the “Negotiating team” it isn’t a serious negotiation.
And Trump is behaving more erratically by the day, his threats are irrational and not by a small amount.
Trying to spin what;s coming due to stupidity/insanity as a positive outcome…Hoo Boy.
Speaking of spin – and weird spin at that – I’m not sure, but it seems like Simplicius is claiming that Trump actually knew what he was doing:
It seems clear that our analyses here were correct: Trump knew all along that the US was playing a dangerous game of Chicken with Iran, and all his attempts to outlast his arch-rival were bluffs meant to paint Iran as the one “running out of time” when in reality it was Trump’s own sclerotic regime that was up against the hourglass. Now that the dust has settled, he feels comfortable enough to reveal the stark reality of it all.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/major-rupture-between-us-israel-as?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1351274&post_id=202614274&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=253y8q&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
But I may be misreading.
Is that not the same negotiating tactic Trump has utilized throughout his career?
Whenever I see those two names, I think real estate/land has to be a part of the negotiation.
The new framing is coming into view:
” (The MoU) It was THE RIGHT DECISION, when you consider the crisis
heading towards us.”
Thus, every thing Iran does will be viewed as helping or hindering solve the crisis.
But we wont hear of the help, only the hinderance that’s prolonging the crisis…
Miriam and the US Zios will never forgive T for trying to sign a treaty with Iran. T is between Iran and a hard place. No wonder he sounds more erratic by the day.
From Jimmy Dore:
WATCH: Congress Members Run & REFUSE To Say They’re America First!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPGY-abecgw
Some history here.
In the 1980’s & ’90’s when Newt Gingerich was in Congress, both first the GOP and the the Dems turned Congress into a pay-to-play organization. .
Both parties turned away from the old seniority system organization Committee assignments and Committee Chair position used to be filed on the old seniority system: Congress members who had been reelected the most times, had served the longest, were given higher positions based on their ability to win votes.
That system was replaced by pay-to-play, where committee assignments were based on how much money was raised by the congressperson for their party. Also called dialing for dollars. There was even a list of committee seat “prices”, the amount a Dem congressperson was expected to raise to be considered for a certain committee assignment. I read about this back then in the once good magazine MotherJones, I think it was MotherJones.
AIPAC and other interests took full advantage of both parties openly put themselves up for sale.
Shorter: both parties abandon the seniority system for a pay-to-play system to move up in Congress. Voters who cannot donate much no longer matter.
Oligarchs and Foreign interests that can donate a lot matter a lot.
Who gives money to AIPAC?
https://www.trackaipac.com/donors
adding: This great 2016 essay by Matt Stoller in The Atlantic explains part of what happened. Basically, the new post-Watergate pols were young, idealistic in their own way, and they did not want to wait through the seniority system to get to a committee or party position they wanted. They were in a hurry and there was no guarantee they’d win re-elections enough times to reach a senior position. But with pay-to-play, hey ho, new possibilities emerge. They also liked money….a lot.
How the Democrats Killed Their Populist Soul
In the 1970s, a new wave of post-Watergate liberals stopped fighting monopoly power. The result is an increasingly dangerous political system.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/10/how-democrats-killed-their-populist-soul/504710/
Benny Netanyahu is a survivor… he’ll quickly adjust to the new reality…
But how he sells the Lebanon ceasefire, and retreating from the land grab
will be the real test for his political survival…
I see three possible scenarios for Bibi.
One, he dies from his medical conditions. He is getting old and fighting cancer I read.
Two, he suffers an “unfortunate accident” of some sort. The list of possible suspects would be long.
Three, the country of Israel falls apart around him.
Whichever scenario, soon please.
There’s always Argentina. / ;)
Nooooooo
“…interview of former negotiator David Pyne with Mario Nawfal”
————————————————————————————–
Excellent interview, but I believe it’s with David Aaron Miller.
“Miller worked for the United States Department of State for 24 years (1978–2003). Between 1988 and 2003, Miller served six secretaries of state as an advisor on Arab-Israeli negotiations, participating in American efforts to broker agreements between Israel, Jordan, Syria, and the Palestinians. He left the State Department in January 2003…”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aaron_David_Miller
Correction: Aaron David Miller
Ooops! Fixing.
‘Fox News
@FoxNews
JUST IN: Vice President Vance pushes back on “misreporting” about Iranian assets potentially being unfrozen and says that if any of the regime’s money is freed up, it will go to help the American economy and make U.S. farmers richer’
This may not be bad if it was a negotiated idea between the US and Iran. Iran gets their assets back and by spending it for needed goods from the American market, both sides can claim a win. Additionally, this would put pressure on the American side to have Hormuz open so that those American goods can be shipped there.
That would be good if it came about.
There are pirates, I mean members of congress who want to return nothing US has stolen from Iran.
Nothing will be restored that is good for Iran.
I should have added that the Iranians should go for Cash On Delivery first. As soon as those goods are landed and inspected, then Iran can release that money to the US but not before.
There was a foto on presstv.ir of a plane that brought to Tehran around 3 bn. USD. So this money at least seems to be returned to our Iranian brothers.
“Deconflicting” process for Lebanon, reminds me of a “peace” conference in Panmunjong, ongoing since 1952.
While the rest us were tossing around in our lumpy beds and dreaming our fantastical dreams, Donnie was sitting on his golden bed at 2:15 AM and 4:30 AM visiting his worst nightmares upon the world. It’s enough to keep you awake at night.
No the times shown are 11 hours ahead of EDT.
Even if the USA held all the cards the direct threats to the Iranian negotiating team would be extremely ill advised.
With Iran controlling the Strait these threats are insane, and I do mean that literally.
Questions about Trump’s mental condition are likely to be front and center and his reaction to that will be clarifying.
I notice the sycophant-stenographer media, as well as the loyal opposition, mostly ignore or downplay the Unhinged Emperor’s declining mental state. Ignorance, incompetence, corruption, sadism, narcissism, hubris and mental illness have been normalized and the media are doing a helluva job eh
Now: VP JD Vance Takes Questions In Switzerland
I recommend that JD give up the Maui Sativa which really appears to be messing with his head. Imagine a US farmer listening to this nonsense on the morning farm show in Ottumwa. He needs to switch to Indica to minimize the head buzz and just relax. And what better way to do that than to abandon Lucerne, head for his high chair in the US Senate and start naming rural post offices again. May be the only way to save the downer that is fast becoming his political career.
best explainer on why oil shorts?
@MacroAlphaHQ
Retail is aggressively bidding oil because ships are burning in the Black Sea, completely oblivious to the margin trap they are walking into.
Brent is currently sitting at 79.28.
That is the dead floor of a 79 to 118 range, down 22.2% over the last 42 sessions while the news cycle screams about a regional escalation.
If you are confused by this price action, it is because you have been trading blind.
You trade geopolitical headlines, but institutions trade collateral mechanics.
When a drone strikes a Panamanian bulk carrier, war insurance premiums for Black Sea transit do not simply tick up—they go exponential.
The moment physical transit becomes practically uninsurable, those floating cargoes become TOXIC COLLATERAL.
Prime brokers instantly hike haircuts on the physical assets to account for the catastrophic maritime risk.
To survive, massive physical trading houses are forced to aggressively short paper futures to hedge out the cargo risk they can no longer insure.
Simultaneously, clearinghouses raise initial margin on the paper side to front-run the expected headline volatility.
The quant desks know the retail longs are undercapitalized and cannot fund these new margin requirements.
So they systematically walk the price down 22%, vaporizing the headline-chasing bids to clear the books.
You thought you were getting early exposure to a global supply shock.
You were actually acting as the SHOCK ABSORBER for physical desks offloading their uninsurable transit risk.
So who exactly is left to bid $BZ_F when your retail broker auto-liquidates your position?
Thank you.
True or not, a good example of complexity and why I sat this one out. I don’t understand physical commodity markets and would lose my shirt trying to trade one.
It ain’t trading pork bellies like in trading places
ZH, I occasionally read and mostly disagree, but.
This AM the lead is long with a lot of mai observations of the Trump Iran war.
In conclusion it seems to suggest the decapitation etc was to establish a secular plutocracy to bring Iran back to the dollar regime as before 1979.
ZH suggests that despite the bluster from Trump, the economic deals presented at Switzerland are trying to bring the Ayatollahs back trade wise to 1979.
Maybe they should not have killed all those top shelters agreeing to a new JPCOA.
Imagine US losing and pulling a win in the peace conference.
A couple of god days for the indexes
If you’re referring to the Portfolio Armor piece, it reads like it was generated by AI. All the tell tale signs are there – short sentences, too smooth and uniform, formulaic, no style, rookie!
I refuse to lend any credence to sources that are too intellectually lazy to do their own thinking. Most likely a money grabber looking to fill content at any cost.
Besides, the core premise of the article, even if not machine-generated, is that this $300B fund is somehow going to pull Iran back into the dollar system. First, the fund does not exist at this moment. Second, what is to stop China, Russia, or India from investing in it?
I have no doubt that Witkoff and Kushner would like to build hotels in downtown Iran, but whether they are actually going to be able to is an entirely different matter.
I am NOT keen about comments that attack articles STYLISTICALLY. This is a form of ad hominem and is invalid. In addition, readers are poor judges. I have read tons of specialist industry pubs from my days as a consultant and that style is common.
You do attack the argument but you make that secondary.
On further thought, I apologize, the article itself may or may not be AI-generated. I can’t prove it, so I should have been more circumspect.
It’s difficult to really know whether pieces like that have been AI-assisted, because while they seem too “perfect” in the sense that there are no tell-tale signs of human authorship, like affectations and certain tendencies we all have when writing, other tools to detect AI gave me an inconclusive result when I fed the text into them.
global depression and ground war coming to a theatre near you!
0755 PDT
Outgoing Colombian President Gustavo Petro claims Israel rigged elections
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-900089
Canada solidifies agreement with Australia to buy Arctic Over-the-Horizon Radar system | CBC News
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-australia-radar-system-9.7243658
German Defence Minister blames Trump for Strait of Hormuz closure
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/german-minister-blames-trump-for-strait-of-hormuz-closure
oil cliff dead ahead! “So who exactly is posting the collateral when the energy shock officially hits the tape?”
31m
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed from 15 vessels to 3 this morning, and you are treating it like a geopolitical trivia question.
You have been trading blind.
Retail is debating Polymarket odds on whether shipping normalizes by July.
Institutions are not debating odds. They are adjusting COLLATERAL haircuts.
When the world’s primary energy chokepoint operates at a 20% capacity rate, it does not just delay regional exports.
It fundamentally rewrites the forward inflation curve that every prime broker uses to calculate overnight margin.
Energy is the baseline denominator for global liquidity.
If crude spikes because 80% of regional tonnage is suddenly sitting idle, the volatility modeling on sovereign debt breaks down entirely.
Clearing houses do not wait for the mainstream news cycle to catch up.
They mechanically increase initial margin requirements across the board to front-run the impending shock.
Which forces over-leveraged multi-strats to liquidate performing assets just to meet the overnight cash call.
That is why your favorite equities randomly puke 200 basis points on a Tuesday when “nothing happened.”
Polymarket is currently pricing a less than 50% chance this resolves by late summer.
If that base case holds, the funding plumbing is going to seize long before the physical oil actually runs out.
So who exactly is posting the collateral when the energy shock officially hits the tape?
Don’t know anything about commodities, but us margin debt reached 1.4T in May, 10% above jan peak. In the past that liquidation seems to have led to market crashes.
Imo corps with large debt and low income are particularly vulnerable, though I suppose energy intensive industries might also be if there is a durable energy shock. Eu is a good example of that.
I applaud Yves comments about diplomatic statements and consequent optimistic blather.
It was astonishing that the mediators began with cheering Trump’s “leadership” (despite his having started the war during peace negotiations) . . . followed soon after by Trump/s threatening Iran’s negotiating team!!
Vance later characterized Iran’s pique as “whining”!
= =
Threats, insults, and inaction so early in negotiations smell like ‘bad faith’.
Did USA/Trump sign the MOU only to open the Strait for a period of time – not to actually make peace? And, if USA-Israel are actually planning for more war, then wouldn’t they prefer that a frustrated Iran to be the aggressor – prompted to lash out due to . . . threats, insults, and inaction?
Many say that Trump’s statements are crazy. After all, he really does need the Strait opened. But he has blunted Iran’s demand that he reign-in Israel – now relegated to a “deconfliction cell”(!) – and self-styled “peacemaker” Trump may be playing a longer game.
I have the impression that DJT’s verbal/text emissions are basically “self-therapy”. They have little real-world significance other than the significance that the rest of the world assigns to them.
I read somewhere (NC, I think) that the Iranians were being told behind the scenes by DJT Admin people to disregard the logorrhea and focus on concrete actions.
Hopefully actual policy will increasingly divorce itself from DJT’s social media habits.
I read the same here…that Iran was being told to ignore Trump’s social media postings. Um…really? Trump’s minions treat his verbal droppings as policy.
0810 PDT
Trump accuses New York Times of ‘treason’ after it questioned what the Iran war had actually achieved
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-iran-new-york-times-treason-b3000217.html
“Israel won’t pull back from Lebanon ‘security zone’: Foreign Minister Saar”
“Gaza situation worsens as Israeli troops advance, disease spreads”
Not good. Expansion of Israel doesn’t really jibe with reducing the “presence” (so to speak) of the USA in West Asia.
Can somebody explain what mediators *actually* do (I do not mean the job description, I mean the actual minute-by minute mechanics)? Also, why do countries (e.g. Pakistan in this case) want to mediate (as in, what actual benefits are there to doing so), especially in seemingly hopeless situations? And what benefit is there in Pakistan basically announcing positions that Iran would not agree to? It seems like a silly way to lose credibility and piss off one negotiating team?
And just in case somebody knows the answers and is willing to explain, one more question: How do mediators actually get “selected”. Do the negotiating parties put names into a hat and look for a common agreement? Do they select based on country or on the individual leading the mediation? Do countries volunteer ahead of time to be considered?
My 2 cents, re: Pakistan
First and foremost, like Qatar, hey have friendly relations with both US and Iran (despite occasional border skirmishes involving ‘rebels’) and seem to be trusted by both sides. They have nukes.
They stand to gain ROW respect and appreciation, majority Sunni population viewed as brothers to the gulf states and it allows them to one-up India which seems to be butt-buddies with izzys.
Not sure about the other stuff.
What motorslug said makes sense to me.
Additional idea: Pakistan can be considered a client state of China, and China prefers the economic strains of the crisis to ease promptly, so asking the Pakistanis to assist might not feel like much of a stretch.
The post by Trump which begins, “The Only Thing I love more than negotiating with Iran is BOMBING THE SHIT out of Iran” is truly remarkable; as in insane.
There is something known as decision regret, sometimes called buyer’s remorse, that most people are aware of. Yet, not being a psychologist I think we still underestimate Trump’s derangement.
What do Covid vaccines have to do with this? Daniel Kahneman, Nobel economist and psychologist author of “Thinking, Fast and Slow” studied decision making and concluded “we are biased against actions that could lead to regret. That is, before making a decision we anticipate that we’ll regret the decision and this prevents people from taking action in the first place.
This study was used to suggest Covid vaccine mandates because more people would accept the vaccine. Left to choose, too many people would anticipate regretting the decision but if mandated they could put blame of a negative outcome on the state.
Problem #1 Choose between a 90% chance to win $1 million or $50 with certainty.
Problem #2 Choose between a 90% chance to win $1 million or $150,000 with certainty.
Failing to win is always a disappointment but problem #2 raises the level of pain such that most people will be overcome with fear of regret if they lose. Anticipated regret is a major obstacle to taking action.
And now Trump the narcissist where the level of pain of regret is on another level. From Psychology Today, “But for people with narcissistic disorders, fear of regret is even more powerful because they do not simply experience anxiety about making a mistake or fear of failure; they experience regret as humiliating.” “The characteristics we associate with narcissistic personalities, e.g., fantasies of grandiosity, are the defenses against shame.”
I think it’s fair to say that as the Peanut Gallery weighs in against Trump’s decision to accept the MoU, which clearly is both a good decision and capitulation, Trump has a nonstop firestorm in his brain, he can’t think clearly, and predictably produces dangerous and destructive Post’s like the one above.
I think anything is possible from this point forward because Trump is a loose cannon and/or dangerous patient.
Trump is trying to create leverage out of thin air. No one’s buying it except his diminished MAGA base. 😹
Regret stemming from . . . Trump’s decision to accept the MoU ?
What makes you think he ever really accepted the MOU?
Trump had to reach an agreement to get the Straits open but he doesn’t have to actually reach a peace deal. There is no acceptance of defeat – and consequently no shame of ‘caving-in’ – until a peace deal is reached. These negotiations are actually more likely to end in another ‘frozen conflict’ than peace – frozen until USA-Israel restarts it!
The notion that Trump’s signing the MOU means that he has accepted defeat and that that acceptance means Trump/USA is abandoning Israel seems to be Hasbara. It creates a false sense of distancing between USA and Israel and pretends that USA and Israel are no longer a threat to Iran (so Iran doesn’t need to press its advantage).
In fact, USA/Trump is finessing provisions of the MOU to Israel’s benefit: Trump has essentially rejected the MOU-obligation to pressure the Israeli’s to withdraw from Lebanon and Vance now says that Iran will get USA farm goods instead of money (so no money flows to Iran’s terrorist proxies).
Lastly, the “mediators” may be assisting USA by ‘helping’ Iran to accept compromises in the face of Trump craziness. If true, then Trump is crazy like a fox. Wasn’t it interesting that the Qatari Prime Minister wouldn’t shake hands with Vance? So unexpectedly undiplomatic!
I don’t think you got the gist of it. Trump’s post, which I mentioned, is not by any means a normal statement from a head of state. It’s a message from a deranged individual who is suffering. What that suffering is, I was only trying to guess.
Trump realized that starting the war was a strategic blunder orders of magnitude in the red zone, and no military solution is available. Though he knew the economy faced a precipice, and a decision had to be made, it’s very likely he feared making any concession because he feared regretting it.
Regret is what normal people have. A narcissist interprets regret as humiliation and shame for which the Trump brain can’t endure; it’s his worst fear and likely how others manipulate him. Criticism from his MAGA supporters, Netanyahu et al., as I said, I think created a firestorm in his brain which caused him to send the TS Post referenced above and why I think he is far more mentally unstable than we realize.
1) Yes, it’s not a normal statement. It doesn’t automatically follow that he is deranged.
2) I doubt Trump cares much whether it was a strategic blunder or not. It’s what Israel and the Deep State wanted … so he did it.
Pretending that it’s all about Trump can be a convenient excuse for those in the shadows.
3) He doesn’t fear making concessions that are practical necessities or part of his ‘job’:
4) Criticism from MAGA and Netanyahu?
MAGA is his plaything. He has shrugged off criticism from conservatives about Epstein and the Iran war saying that he leads MAGA and he will decide what MAGA is.
No shame. No remorse. Just: ‘stuff it’.
Netanyahu and Trump have a long history and Trump’s ‘service’ to Israel is indisputable. Trump has defended signing the MOU as something that was necessary and JD Vance has bluntly said that Israel should not alienate the best friend they have. I don’t see that any ‘shaming’ of Trump wrt the MOU is warranted or would be effective.
= =
And so, once again: the only reason to push the narrative that Trump has betrayed Israel is to pretend that there is a distancing between these war buds.
PS Trump’s narcissism is not a fact in evidence (no diagnosis). It’s an assumption.
Judge Napolitano and Alastair Crooke.
Alastair Crooke: An Irreversible Blow to Israel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enmsuDrZdqw
an aside: sounds like JDVance is trying to revive his political fortunes by saying he’s a millennial, not a boomer. ‘Vote for me, I’m not a boomer.’ uh, but what about your policies?
Exactly…boomer, millennial, GenX, Gen Z… just media BS buzzwords to distract and entertain. A corrupt, amoral, intelligence-insulting, mendacious politician can be of any age, race, gender etc. This sort of thing is all part of the “identity politics” distraction. Might as well be straight outta Operation Mockingbird
Israel is the past-master of this technique, which works especially well when the media plays along with it and ignores the obvious (throwing in a strong dash of anti-Semitism charges also helps!). Of course, anyone can be portrayed as the victim in a series of events, depending on where you start the history.
To me it looks like Israel has (finally) lost the benefit of the doubt in the minds of many or most westerners (they lost the non-west long ago), and this seems to be having a remarkable effect in the West. I did not follow the details of the collapse of the South African white regime back when it happened, but it seems like the parallels between Israel and South Africa would make a super interesting case study for the appropriate historian.
This observation reminds me of the single best contextual insight to use in understanding the Arab-Israeli conflict and getting past Israeli hasbara: Realize a single conflict/war began in 1948, with numerous skirmishes and major battles following in 67, 73, etc.
I think it’s obvious that the Amjad Taha comment is primarily an attempt to influence public opinion against a deal with Iran (he explicitly says Vance should have abandoned the negotiations immediately because of the alleged ‘humiliation’), so I’m inclined to remain agnostic about how factually correct his ‘expert analysis’ is. Quite a few comments from Gulf states I’ve seen have boiled down to ‘We don’t want peace, we want the US to destroy Iran now, now, now!’ (They seem to genuinely believe that daddy US is omnipotent and that if he hasn’t destroyed Iran yet, it’s just because he doesn’t want to, or is too stupid to understand he can, and because they haven’t screamed and stomped their feet enough.) In fact, a lot of the mainstream comments saying things like ‘Iran is winning’ and ‘the US is surrendering’ have a similar purpose and/or effect – making Trump pay a heavy political price for striving for peace and motivating him to resume war. If only his aggression had been successful in conquering the country, everything would have been great from their perspective.
That’s likely correct. I clicked through to some of his previous posts. Has ties with the Hudson Institute, if that tells you anything. Most of his recent tweets are mainly attacking Gazan “terrorists” and Muslim Brotherhood here, there, and everywhere (especially in the UK). People like him are the problem, even if occasionally correct on an isolated issue.
Here’s some background if you’re curious…
https://marcowenjones.substack.com/p/who-is-amjad-taha-a-deep-dive
“If only his aggression had been successful in conquering the country, everything would have been great from their perspective.”
On that final point…
With the intra-elite battle called “mid-term elections” happening, they’d struggle to praise even a successful and wanted aggression. (Shameful as starting the war may be).
It’s all about personalizing politics and attributing the failures to one personality…for some the usual Beltway suspects and apparatchiks. I’d imagine scripts were written before the first bomb landed in Iran
Long time, first time – who tf told them about Tahdig? I am staggered by this sophistication. I will not be able to stop wondering WHO in this administration knows about the legendary Persian gastronomic hospitality of serving your guests the best sticky, crunchy rice from the bottom of the pot? It’s hard to believe anyone has done this for them. I know if any of these freaks showed up to dinner at my house I’m scooping out the mushiest rice and handing off a mug full of boiling water with the tea bag still in it.
This is a witty remark by a reader…
Points to ponder. Trump is between the proverbial rock and a hard place (Israel’s intransigence and economic disaster). Those plates are moving closer together. In a zero sum game, if one doesn’t win, then it counts as a loss. Neither Trump or Netanyahu can tolerate the appearance of defeat. If either does, their aura of their “invincible” power collapses. It seems that one of Iran’s operational objective has been to constrict Trump’s ability to manuever and to paralyze his decision making capability. To wit, Trump has no where to go and doesn’t know what to do, except to throw tantrums out of fustration.
Joseph Heller expressed situations like this beautifully (“Catch 22”):
“There was only one catch and that was Catch-22, which specified that a concern for one’s safety in the face of dangers that were real and immediate was the process of a rational mind. Orr was crazy and could be grounded. All he had to do was ask; and as soon as he did, he would no longer be crazy and would have to fly more missions. Orr would be crazy to fly more missions and sane if he didn’t, but if he was sane he had to fly them. If he flew them he was crazy and didn’t have to; but if he didn’t want to he was sane and had to. Yossarian was moved very deeply by the absolute simplicity of this clause of Catch-22 and let out a respectful whistle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAIFktclZ8A/
MOUharram in Iran-Critical Dissent, Spiritual Solidarity w/Ehsan Safarnejad
Managing expectations?
“It is a movement to release the blood flow in areas that were gangrening.”
@pati_marins64
What do the current movements represent for the GCC? One more stage.
According to Kpler, between the 19th and 21st about 70 ships crossed the strait. I know that 40% of them in the last 24h and paying a toll to Iran. Everything in this letter of intent about peace sounds strange, but it fulfills the objective in stages and the main one of them is to relieve the gulf economies.
The GCC countries, with the exception of Saudi Arabia, were for about 3 months without exporting by maritime routes. An unsustainable situation that would severely affect the world economy.
Fulfilling this stage, the US relieves the gulf economies and also the global supply, which was close to chaos especially regarding jet-fuel.
Iran received authorization to export globally for 60 days, which should collaborate even more for the recovery of global reserves. This is another point of this strategic stage, which aims to relieve the markets and the GCC countries.
It is a movement to release the blood flow in areas that were gangrening. Nothing changed with regard to Iran and soon the picture returns to the previous state, because as I say, there is no relief in the support to militias, missiles, or the gulf toll.
The IAEA inspections, those yes can happen again and are a victory for Trump, if we can say so, but rejected by Israel.
The toll issue is another nerve point that did not exist before and now imposes more costs on the GCC countries. The release of the frozen Iranian money is another point of friction, with JD Vance saying today that the Iranian money will go to American farmers, in a Venezuela-style speech.
Between you and me, this makes no sense at all. The US can embargo Iran, but the Iranian money belongs to the Iranians, just as it should happen in Venezuela.
straight pandering ” with JD Vance saying today that the Iranian money will go to American farmers, in a Venezuela-style speech.” geezus!
Sort of like imported Argentinian beef helping US ranchers…. . / ;)
“The IAEA inspections, those yes can happen again and are a victory for Trump”
Incorrect. All other items of the MOU must be satisfied before this can happen, and even then the inspections are on Iran’s terms. If that does happen, Trump will be seen to have lost on so many other issues this one item will look like crumbs given to a beggar.
Why does the president continue to insist on sending his son-in-law and long-time crony, who have no experience, no expertise and have been deceitful, mendacious, and untrustworthy so many times?
Observers have been asking this question for months, but the only reasonable explanation I can come up with is that the emperor either doesn’t care that his Jewish/Zionist real-estate grifters are loathed and counterproductive, wants to provoke the Iranians, or is not mentally not capable of seeing reality. Maybe all three?
I think the Truth Social post about Trump threatening to “bomb the shit out of Iran” is fake. I have seen it nowhere on Trump’s Truth Social account.
I couldn’t find it either and concluded it was fake. But maybe just deleted?
Robert Pape has a hopium shattering interview this morning on Mario Nawful. He speaks cogently on the importance of understanding the right framework to the US/Iran negotiations. The US approaches this as a business deal, i.e. it’s about the money. Although for Iran money is not unimportant, Iran’s framework is about power. As the oil inventories decline, Iran’s leverage increases, and they are using that leverage to expand and lock in their power. Pape’s conclusion is that peace will only come when the three parties – US, Israel, and Iran – agree on the new power structure. Iran is driving a wedge between the US and Israel, and this will not go quickly, smoothly, or easily, because Iran is not going to let Trump hand wave this issue away. Iran expects to emerge as the dominant regional power. Pape says the reason Lebanon is important to Iran is its coastline on the Mediterranean. Well worth a listen.
Sorry in advance for the imprecision.
I’m not saying that I think this is likely, but I have a sense that, if the US gets out of this without a recession-/depression-inducing energy crisis, the long-term results will be much worse. Not just in relation to Israel/West Asia, of course (where we have long been not lesson-learning capable), and not even just in foreign policy, but with everything. It would be the ultimate confirmation for our elites that there are no physical limits, or in fact external realities of any kind, outside the numbers on their screens (and, for the earthier of them, their manicured rock gardens and individually vacuum-sealed Chilean sea bass fillets). Cheap energy and indices going to the moon. Pile it on top of the bailout and the pandemic. What next? Whatever it is, the reinforcement of zero consequences for them means that it will not be good.
Commodore Steve Jermy returned with an interview on Neutrality Studies – doom & terror over the energy shock, but delivered in an agreeable manner. He gave a rough outline of his macro-energetics model and the consequences of reduced supply.
He also reviewed the Ukraine situation, and even mused about a hypersonic missile attack on Southampton UK oil storage.
His revived substack is linked below the video.
ps. He says he’s a good friend of Art Berman.
I believe that Trump’s cognitive issues are more serious than most are willing to consider or admit.
Some because the thought that the Man with the big red button is deranged is too frightening to consider.
Some because he is a performer surrounded by a large support staff and they find the theatre believable.
Many people become emotionally invested in a Politician or a “Leader” and admitting that their idol has feet of turds, not clay, threatens their World view.
They need a “Good Daddy” who will protect them and punish the bad people, and many seem to enjoy the punishing the bad people part, a lot.
Critical thinking is not comfortable, neither is dispassionately examining the beliefs inculcated in you since childhood.
It’s a worthwhile endeavor, in my own case the first two beliefs I discarded were that Homosexuality is abnormal and the other was that the Death Penalty was a good thing.
The most painful was learning that the Good old USA is not a Democracy or a Republic and that all the stories about “Liberty and Justice for all” were a pack of lies.
That one still hurts.
How does Trump’s ‘cognitive issues’ differ from those of genocidal Zionists, rapacious oligarchs, or Deep-State bullies intend on global domination? Isn’t he all of those?
There is a madman theory of Presidential coercion (with Trump cited as an example!) for a reason. Critically thinking about Trump’s “acting out” in this case should include considering if his loony blustering was just a means of getting what he wanted.
And he did get an important concession, didn’t he? He got his MOU-obligation to pressure Israel shifted to a committee (“deconfliction cell”).
= =
A critical thinker might also wonder if: 1) Trump signed the MOU without ever intending to pressure Israel to leave Lebanon; 2) the mediators knowingly participated as good-cop to Trump’s bad-cop.
Pakistan is a long-time US ally which needs US support against India (which wants to restrict water flow to Pakistan) and Pakistan has a defense treaty with Saudi Arabia (how broad is that treaty and its interpretation?). Qatar and other Gulf States are closely tied to USA and the West where they have hundreds of billions of dollars invested.
Furthermore, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have vested interests in ensuring that peace prevails so that the Strait is opened. If they were told that US-Israel would restart the war rather than exit Lebanon, these countries would try their best to relegate the Lebanon matter to the sidelines.
Your comment does not address the issue
.
How’s that “madman theory” worked out? How brilliant of a ploy. He has the Iranians fooled and cowering I’m sure. It’s all a sophisticated act, and dude is sharp as a tack and the most brilliant POTUS ever! The US is now more powerful than ever, due to the madman act eh
Yves and many others have observed and commented about his mental decline for some time now. Biden’s mental decline was rather obvious as well. It’s time to admit that the emperor has lost his marbles.. Ask prof. John Mearsheimer, for just one example, how a more rational actor could have furthered US interests much more effectively
More than one thing can be true.
As an 80-year old, he is likely suffering from some sort of mental decline.
And his acting out DID result in escaping the MOU-obligation.
Also, you neglected the participation of the mediators. Its not just Trump’s madman routine that got him results.
How does getting out of the MOU help Trump?
If the US economy goes into a depression he is beyond toast.
There is no plan, only madness.
He’s not out of the MOU. He has just effectively sidestepped one provision – probably the provision that was most onerous to US-Israel.
That provision obligated USA to pressure Israel to leave Lebanon. It has now been relegated to a committee that has been referred to as “deconfliction cell”.
He’s not out of the MOU. He has just effectively sidestepped one provision – probably the provision that was most onerous to US-Israel.
Isn’t that like an American football player claiming he’s not “out of bounds” but that he just “sidestepped” that meaningless white line along the edge of the field?
From Al Jazeera:
With Israel and Hezbollah missing, deconfliction cell’s effectiveness remains to be seen
By Heidi Pett
Reporting from Tyre, Lebanon
It’s not clear in how the deconfliction cell is going to work.
It’s going to be the US, Iran, Qatar, Pakistan and Lebanon but the parties which are not mentioned are the ones doing the fighting on the ground: Israel and Hezbollah.
It is basically a communication mechanism so things don’t spiral out of control. The deconfliction room will aim to ensure both sides don’t jump to conclusions, but how they actually feed that information on the ground remains to be seen.
Hezbollah has said it will abide by the ceasefire if Israel does. This is the longest period of calm we’ve had in south Lebanon since the beginning of March.
But what Hezbollah will do in response to the Israeli occupation is not entirely clear.
Ran across Ana Subasic article from June 19 in Kpler describing how the war closure of the Strait has altered the framework that allows insurance companies, ship owners and other stakeholders to do real-time and after the fact compliance and risk assessment. She says the binary framing “open or closed” is not a useful way to think about Hormuz risk. The whole risk assessment structure has changed and requires fundamental changes in the analytical structure. There is no simple or quick fix. She says the most reliable signals “are visible before incidents happen, before official notifications are issued, and before the commercial consequences are locked in. But [these signals] require the analytical infrastructure to detect and interpret them, and the compliance process to act on them. That is the gap the 2026 crisis has exposed. Not a gap in vessel tracking technology, but a gap between the data that is available and the frameworks organisations have built to use it.”
https://www.kpler.com/blog/hormuz-risk-question-has-changed-compliance-frameworks-havent-caught-up
In the last few hours, USA/Trump has:
And Iran is now saying:
I am so confused
When I saw the massive USD reparation numbers I was kind of wondering if it was a ruse to create demand for US goods in USD. It was interesting to see now they’re adding the condition that it’s to purchase US farm goods. Makes me think the deal is extremely fragile because, as expected, all the concessions are veiled attempts at a win
Trump Threatens to Defund States That Don’t Make His Election Changes
https://newrepublic.com/post/212151/trump-threatens-defund-homeland-security-states-election-changes-2026-midterms
just sayin…https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rwfqsjimRM
Damn, hippie — now that’s been twangin’ in my head all day. :-)
Trump Appointee Suggested Seizing Greenland to Help Out Red Lobster – Yes, this is unfortunately a real story.
https://newrepublic.com/post/212172/trump-official-seize-greenland-help-red-lobster
Trump unveiled Qatar’s gifted Air Force One this week. The retrofit cost $934M from a nuclear missile budget. The plane becomes his personal property in 2029.
https://respublica.media/en/trump-unveiled-qatars-gifted-air-force-one-this-week/
Trump accused of ‘damaging’ White House columns on purpose to force renovation
https://www.irishstar.com/news/us-news/trump-accused-damaging-white-house-37332951
“441 large tankers are sitting off Sohar and Fujairah, just outside the strait, waiting.”
@SCapStrategist
·
5h
Forget the Iran announcements for a second. Per FT, 441 large tankers are sitting off Sohar and Fujairah, just outside the strait, waiting. The number grew all through the blockade and is only down 42 from five days ago.
That’s what is actually happening on reopening. Not Trump saying it is open, not Iran saying it is closed. 441 ships full of operators who get paid to move cargo, choosing to sit and wait instead.
These are not nervous amateurs. They are the most experienced shipping companies on earth, and they are parking hundreds of vessels rather than transit, even with the deal signed and the US blockade lifted. Some are testing it now, four Qatari LNG tankers went through Monday, the most since the war started. But the queue is still 441 deep.
When the people whose entire job is moving oil through that strait would rather wait outside it, believe them, not the press release.
here is how crude will stay cheap and get cheaper, out and out manipulation and backend, real shortages crash like a tidal wave! Macro Alpha
@MacroAlphaHQ
·
2h
The Treasury is not doing diplomacy here, they are engineering a 60-day volatility crush on paper crude.
Let me think through the actual mechanics of this Iranian waiver.
$CL_F is sitting at $74.18 this morning.
Look at the technical floor directly underneath it—that price is exactly 46 cents above the 200-day moving average ($73.72).
If that level snaps, CTA trend-following algos are structurally forced to aggressively short and drag the whole complex back to the $54.98 yearly lows.
So Bessent hands Iran a temporary 60-day general license to pump and sell.
The retail crowd reads the headline, assumes infinite new Iranian supply, and slams the bid.
But wait.
A 60-day window? That is barely enough time to clear a single supertanker cycle from the Gulf.
Actually, connecting the dots here, this makes perfect sense.
This is a targeted strike on front-month premium to suppress any immediate breakout toward the $93.84 50-day moving average.
You do not hand out two-month geopolitical waivers to fix the Middle East.
You hand them out to temporarily cap the paper markets while the commodity houses ACCUMULATE precisely at the 200-day floor.
1930 PDT
The scale of Trump’s political blunder in Iran is coming into focus
https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/22/politics/trump-iran-deal-poll
China sanctions US defense, rare earth firms in retaliation
https://asiatimes.com/2026/06/china-sanctions-us-defense-rare-earth-firms-in-retaliation/
Around 50 Israeli soldiers deployed to Somaliland following security agreements – report
https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/diplomacy-defense/artc-around-50-israeli-soldiers-deployed-to-somaliland-following-security-agreements-report
India likely won’t export sugar for years as El Nino, ethanol squeeze supply
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/india-likely-wont-export-sugar-years-el-nino-ethanol-squeeze-supply-2026-06-22/