Links 7/4/2026

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Dorm Life Forever? The Problem with Micro-Living JSTOR (Micael T)

This spray-on powder can stop life-threatening bleeding in 1 second Science Daily (Kevin W)

Climate/Environment

Record sea temperatures in June push world into ‘uncharted’ waters Financial Times

Scientists fear seabird die-off as El Niño looms: ‘We don’t know how bad this will get’ Guardian

Plankton Decline Across the North East Atlantic Signals Failing Ocean Health Eco Magazine

In India’s Mountains, Climate Change Is Rewriting the Map of Disease Health Policy Watch

‘We are screwed’: People near data centers dread heat wave pollution Politico

Extreme weather is affecting AI: global AI data centers face threats from extreme heat Gelonghui Finance

China?

China’s housing market free-falls as buyers wait for floor prices Asia Times

Why the West Still Can’t Decode China’s Rise Arnaud Bertrand, Beijing Review (Chuck L)

China Second-Half Outlook: AI Supercycle Cuts Into the K-Shaped Economy Citigroup

Exclusive-Inside Taiwan’s nightmare scenario: Chinese blockade, earthquake, sabotage and invasion Global Banking and Finance

Japan

Traders Plot Worst-Case Scenario for Yen If Crisis Hits Japan Times

Africa

Record number of people displaced into neighbouring countries as Sudan conflict marks three years Oxfam

Expanding conflict drives record hunger in northern Nigeria Arab News

South of the Border

Cubans face endless blackouts, collapsing salaries and empty shops – but they’re refusing to give up Sky

Israel makes another move on the westrrn hemishere Venezualanalysis (Robin K)

‘It was a massacre’: Haiti gangs carry out mass killings across the country Guardian

European Disunion

EU Court of Justice allows criminal prosecution for reposting RT videos — judgement TASS. Micael T: “We must go to war with Putler to defend our freedom to criminal prosecution for listening to other news!”

German workers banned from taking sick leave without a medical note in tough reforms. Independent

Not everyone can act like sick ministers Aftonbladet via machine translation. Micael T: “About sickness benefit day. If you fall ill you deduct a certain percentage from you salary for 1-many days. Not ministers though. The rules of neoliberalism in action.”

Old Blighty

Keir Starmer suggests Andy Burnham borrow billions for defence Guardian (Kevin W)

Bank of England to push ahead with plan to limit hedge fund leverage Financial Times

Bankers and unions set for clash over possible Burnham tax raid on UK banks Guardian

Defaults on credit cards and other loans have hit the highest level since the financial crisis as British households struggle to make ends meet This is Money

Exclusive: British Museum made false claims about its removal of ‘Palestine’ from displays Middle East Eye

Old British fridges ‘cannot cope with the heat’ BBC

Balkans

Flamingos, Jared Kushner, and Albania’s fight against Trump’s Resorts openDemocracy (Robin K)

Israel v. The Resistance

Explaining the Numbers in Gaza Karen Kwaitkowski. Important. A well-supported analysis that concludes that “well over a million” Gazans have died in Israel’s genocide.

Israel Exposed War Crimes Archive (guurst)

Palestinian goalkeeper killed by Israel in Gaza as Fifa faces fresh calls to act Middle East Eye (resilc)

* * *

* * *

The Grand Bargain Is Ending Brandon Weichert

How Florida’s Cuban Diaspora and the Israeli Lobby Came Together — and Are Coming Apart Intercept (resilc)

Huckabee: Israel ‘the 436th congressional district’ of US Responsible Statecraft (Kevin W)

Russia and China were quietly taking over helium markets. Then Iran blew them up for everyone else Kevin Walmsley (guurst)

From Mohamed A-Bukhai @kwnn_yemen on Twitter (hat tip Chuck L). Twitter not allowing embedding “Visibility limited: this Post may violate X’s rules against Violent Speech”. Click through for full tweet.

Translated from ArabicFinal Warning Message to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia:

This is the last chance, and it cannot tolerate any delay or hesitation. Our people’s patience has run out, and there is no longer room for the situation to continue as it is….

Saudi Arabia is evading the obligations of peace in Yemen and is blaming Washington, claiming that our support and stance on Gaza is the reason for the obstruction

We say clearly: Our options are open, and we will not stand idly by if Washington and Riyadh continue this maneuvering

To everyone who takes measures to restrict our people in their livelihood, the equation of bank for bank, airport for airport, and port for port has not been canceled, and this game will not continue, and our people will not submit to economic blackmail and will confront and thwart all conspiracies

We will impose the equation of an eye for an eye and a siege for a siege
And airport for airport

We warn you: Saudi airspace is approaching complete closure 🔥

New Not-So-Cold War

John Mearsheimer: The End of Russian Restraint & New U.S. Grand Strategy Glenn Diesen, YouTube

John Helmer: Ukraine Is Becoming a FIRING PLATFORM WITHOUT Any People Dialogue Works, YouTube

The NY Times Lies About Russian and Ukrainian Casualties Sonar 21 (Kevin W)

Georgia’s only oil refinery said Wednesday that it plans to stop processing Russian crude by the end of this summer in order to avoid being hit by European sanctions Moscow Times

Imperial Collapse Watch

Text – S.4367 – 119th Congress (2025-2026): Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act Library of Congress (resilc)

TRUMP’S $1BN CRYPTO FORTUNE, VANCE-TRUMP RIFT & TUCKER TO MAKE OWN PARTY — w/ Robert Barnes YouTube. Barnes: “Most corrupt in American history.” Vikas S: “Plugged-in people know this, but the details are damning.”

New Poll: Nearly Half of Americans Don’t Know What America’s 250th Is Celebrating Cato. resilc: “Isn’t it Amazon Prime week??”

We became the late 18th Century British. What now? Responsible Statecraft (resilc)

How Many People Have Ever Lived in the United States? Davis Fetz (resilc)

The Pitfalls of a ‘Middle Ground’ Strategy Daniel Larison

Trump 2.0

Trump refuses to renew US-Canada-Mexico trade pact he once championed Guardian

Air Force major arrested after calling for Trump impeachment outside Capitol The Hill (resilc)

U.S. Olympic canoeist David Hearn charged with damaging Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool NBC (Kevin W)

Federal nuclear agency moves to relax radiation exposure rules Washington Post

Our No Longer Free Press

Public Opinion: Cornered by the Many, Controlled by the Few Finn Andreen (Micael T)

Economy

The world is lurching from one economic crisis to the next. What should we expect from our government? Guardian

Global monetary tightening and the fragility behind it ODI Global

U.S. adds just 57,000 jobs in June, a worrying sign as wage growth remains slow NBC

Mr. Market Needs a Therapist

Yet another ‘quant tremor’ strikes systematic investors Financial Times

AI Bubble Fears Grow as Michael Burry, Top Economists Sound Alarm FirstPost

AI Debt Deluge Makes Credit Market Look Safer While Masking Risk Bloomberg

AI hopes and fears dominate global central bank meet Reuters

AI

The AI Race Nobody Can Win Foreign Affairs. Robin K: “Toward the end when the discussion turns to corporate governance, bubbles, inflation, and central banks, things seem to go wobbly.”

Programmer “Productivity”: CHART OF THE DAY Brad DeLong. Important tidbit at the top of how the “The brand-new VW ElectricMicroBus that replaces the 22-year-old Subaru” makes driving more difficult.

Claude Helped a Hacker Find a Way to Issue Tickets to Almost Every US Music Festival Wired (resilc)

Ambani-Trump Jr. investigation encountered a Google AI surprise ProPublica. “Google, the proprietor of the world’s primary research tool, has rolled out AI Overviews that can indiscriminately take in fake material and authoritatively spit it back out as real.” (Kevin W).

The Bezzle

SpaceX Is Junk. That’s What the Bond Market Says Bloomberg

S2 Capital dissolves $400M first fund with “no return of capital” TheRealDeal (albrt)

Private Credit Keeps $14 Billion Trapped in Bid to Outlast Storm Bloomberg

What Private Credit Is, and Why Investors Are So Worried About It New York Times (resilc)

Guillotine Watch

Police hunt Ukrainian woman over Monaco bombing Agence France-Presse

Musk demanded proof people died from USAID cuts. He got it — and lost it. Judd Legum

Class Warfare

Inside the Luddite Festival Harnessing Gen Z’s Rage Against Big Tech Wired (resilc)

The Fun Shortage Is Real, and It’s Making America Miserable Bloomberg

We Crunched the Data: There’s a Grocery Price Emergency in America New York Times (resilc)

Average New Car Prices Hit Record High Of $51,974, But People Are Still Rushing To Buy Them Jalopnik (resilc)

This Is RUINING the Trades… YouTube (resilc)

Antidote du jour (Tracie H):

And a bonus (Chuck L):

A second bonus:

And a third:

See yesterday’s Links and Antidote du Jour here

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64 comments

  1. The Rev Kev

    ‘Dudes Posting Their W’s
    Pubity
    @DudespostingWs
    Dude is rock climbing when a mountain goat casually pulls up beside him. Honestly insane that these animals just live like this.’

    Wait. Did that Mountain Goat just use that guy as a salt lick?

    Reply
  2. Steve H.

    Oh that last antidote has so much. The dogs wagging in concert, the pittie sad face, little dog with the immediate ‘I object!’ In fairness, Shakira is the best tail-wagger (nsfw).

    Reply
  3. dearieme

    “We became the late 18th Century British.”

    Come now; your monarch has always had far more power than ever George III had – just read your own Constitution.

    As for Congress, could it be more corrupt than the old, unreformed Houses of Parliament? It’s certainly a possibility though I don’t know of a metric for such things. AIPAC money and its power perhaps?

    Navy: the Royal Navy was not an obsolete fleet that needed to cower hundreds of miles off enemy shores.
    Army: The USA copied the British tradition of disapproving of large standing armies but the British lived up to that tradition rather than building an army that was outrageously expensive but still too small for the duties the politicians wished to assign to it.

    Reply
    1. The Rev Kev

      I was thinking earlier today the irony in that America started off as a collection of States which were fighting the superpower of the day which had troops and bases all around the world. Now 250 years later, it is America that is the superpower that has troops and bases all around the world. I think that those Revolutionary-era soldiers& militia would be horrified at how their revolution was betrayed. More so when they could have seen how their Constitution with its Bill of Rights has been shredded. This was not what they fought for.

      Reply
      1. lyman alpha blob

        The soldiers might be disappointed. The Alexander Hamiltons of that era got exactly what they wanted.

        Reply
    2. hk

      The old British Parliament may have been corrupt, but it wasn’t openly treasonous. That’s the problem with USA today.

      Reply
    3. ilsm

      US republic did not survive the war of northern aggression.

      Post 1863 (conditions for emancipation) US is a bought by fiat banking loose federation none dare challenge in any meaningful way.

      Today I hold a requiem for the scam that brought together slavers and former indentureds to buy in to a united scam in America.

      Pray this gang does not opt for armeggedon.

      Reply
  4. vao

    Somewhat related to the prohibition of reposting RT videos and information, and definitely in line with the EU as a repressive censorship regime:

    Germany has its own FOIA, called Informationsfreiheitsgesetz (IFG). It is being reformed by the ruling CDU/CSU/SPD coalition. The main highlights of the proposed revision are as follows:

    1) In the future, only individuals may present requests for documents and information from the government or governmental agencies. Associations and other legal entities will be entirely barred from doing so.

    2) Individuals presenting a request will have to demonstrate a personal, justified interest in the information thus seeked.

    3) The fee for fulfilling the request will no longer be capped at €500, but must cover the costs of the search to an unlimited amount.

    4) The current IFG lists 30 exceptions to the freedom of obtaining information; these may be extended by excluding entire domains such as energy, health, culture, media.

    5) It is being pondered to limit the possibility to present requests to German and other EU citizens residing in Germany.

    The revision is partly inspired by the reform of a similar law valid for the Land of Berlin, carried out by a regional CDU/SPD coalition (again), and that severely restricts the circumstances and areas about which official information can be handed out.

    It has been noted that in the past at least one minister and some other officials pushing for the revision had the spotlight thrown on them for various scandals which were uncovered precisely thanks to the recourse to the IFG…

    Reply
  5. Yushan

    “China’s housing market free-falls as buyers wait for floor prices”

    Much of this “housing” was built for financial speculation. You cannot actually live there because many of them are empty hulls without any fittings. It would need significant investment to make it liveable. In the mean time, the concrete is rotting away.

    Apart from that, the prices also don’t make sense relative to income. I had a Chinese friend in Shanghai that unfortunately I lost contact with a few years ago. But she told me what apartments were selling for and it just didn’t make any economic sense. Even if renting them out, rental yields were <1%. All buying was based on speculation on price rises. Plus, to become eligible as a marriage partner you needed to own at least a couple of houses…

    Reply
    1. PlutoniumKun

      I can’t recall the exact figures, but the median price to median income ratio for property in China during the boom was completely off the scale – orders of magnitude beyond other booms, including Japan in the 1980’s. Even with the lower prices now, it’s still grotesquely out of proportion to income levels. And, as you say, they were investment vehicles, not built to last. The level of waste involved is staggering in scale. And active intervention in the market isn’t helping, it’s just creating a situation where nobody knows the real price and there are all sorts of scams. I doubt if anyone has a grasp on just how much hidden debt there is in the property system.

      Sadly, Vietnam has modelled its land/housing policies on China, and a similar thing is happening there, although that bubble probably has a long way to go.

      Reply
  6. Tom Stone

    I am so old I can remember when Donald Trump was the “Peace President”.
    It seems like only a decade ago.

    Reply
  7. Chas

    The article about the Cuba makes a good point about the people not willing to surrender to the USA. However, what this and nearly all the other recent stories about Cuba fail to report is what the Cuban people are doing to improve their situation. I’ll bet there is a huge effort underway to produce more food. I’ll bet there is more breeding of oxen and horses for agriculture and transportation. Hopefully a capable reporter will soon visit Cuba and tell us what the people are doing to counter the US blockade. It would be great if Naked Capitalism would send Conor Gallagher down there for a couple of weeks.

    Reply
    1. brian wilder

      When I travelled in Cuba some years ago, people recalled the famine that followed the loss of the Soviet Union as sponsor and trade partner in the 1990s. A terrible time.

      Many anecdotes about families evading one or another restriction to raise food — raising chickens for example, which would require evading the necessary permits and stealing the feed. Life can get very complicated in a society under stress.

      Reply
  8. Clankenfoot

    The link for “AI Bubble Fears Grow as Michael Burry, Top Economists Sound Alarm” seems to have a typo, or rather it looks like an autocorrect has changed a — double dash to an em dash, resulting in a 404 for that link.

    Reply
  9. JohnA

    Re how the “The brand-new VW ElectricMicroBus that replaces the 22-year-old Subaru” makes driving more difficult.

    Hmm automatic following distance; automatic lane-keeping, speed-control settings that respond to speed-limit traffic signs, anticipatory pre-curve and pre-intersection braking

    I often take my car back and forward between England and France. Not only does one drive on the left in England, as opposed to the right in most of Europe, but speed limits in Britain are in miles per hour as opposed to km per hour. I wonder how sophisticated the VW software would be to be able to safely factor in all the differences. Perhaps it would make driving impossible as opposed to simply more difficult.

    Reply
    1. TonyJ

      I’m the late 80s we took the four kids for the road trip of a lifetime – England, Scotland and Europe. We rented a camper van in London and headed south.

      In those days French regulations required headlights to be tinted yellow, and aimed down and to the right*. The rental company gave us plastic yellow tinted fresnel lenses to stick on the headlights once we’d crossed the channel. We dutifully stuck them on, but they fell off. Repeatedly. After the fourth try, we left them off. Nobody seemed to mind, and we got through France twice without getting a ticket.

      *as distinct from back and to the left.

      Reply
      1. Milton

        Headlights down and to the right. What a quaint notion. Now the rule is to get the brightest lights possible to blind all on-coming drivers.

        Reply
  10. The Rev Kev

    “Dorm Life Forever? The Problem with Micro-Living”

    I can see which way this is going. They will eventually use the model of those Japanese hotel capsules as the basis for what people will be forced to use-

    https://bokksu.com/blogs/news/everything-you-need-to-know-about-capsule-hotels-in-japan

    Probably there will be a common room, bathroom/toilets and maybe even a kitchen. But that will be it. Since most people will not be able to afford a home and maybe not even a rental unless you have a lot of money, this will be it for a huge chunk of the population. Either that or one of those Hong Kong cage homes-

    https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/poor-cages-show-dark-side-hong-kong-boom-flna1b8287394

    Reply
    1. albrt

      I would agree, except the population is going to decrease significantly rather than increase. So this might happen in “innovation hubs,” but everywhere else people will be squatting in derelict buildings.

      Reply
  11. motorslug

    https://www.counterpunch.org/2026/07/03/more-than-a-human-can-bear-on-israels-systematic-sexualized-violence-and-the-silence-that-enables-it/

    “The Palestinian Feminist Collective has issued a 200-page report on the sexualized and gendered violence perpetrated against the Palestinian people. Five months of research. Testimony after testimony: women, men, children, elders, all saying the same things in different voices, from different prisons, across eight decades. The report concludes, beyond a reasonable doubt, that Israel has perpetrated systematic sexualized and gendered violence against the Palestinian people, constituting the crime of genocide.”

    Reply
    1. The Rev Kev

      No surprises there. It was only last year that Parliamentarians in the Israeli Knesset were arguing about the right for Israelis to rape Palestinian prisoners. This is not a sign of a normal country. You don’t get that in the American Congress nor the British Parliament but Israel? They are showing you who they are.

      Reply
      1. Tom Stone

        Rev, the World consists of “True Humans” who are the Zionists, “Goy Cattle” like Trump who are rewarded for furthering their interests, and Amalek, who need to be eliminated.
        Raping Palestinians is no worse than raping pigs, regrettable, but boys will be boys.

        Reply
        1. motorslug

          Yes, so can someone tell me…why does the Iranian desire to avoid casualties matter when these vermin are involved?
          Every izzy is guilty just by being an izzy so they are all legitimate military targets.

          Reply
  12. Tom Stone

    How soon will Trump outlive his usefulness and how violently will he be removed?
    He has done a heckuva job destroying the Rule of Law at home and abroad and destroying what was left of Civil Society, Total Information Awareness and the hammer of the CBP/ICE are well armed, have lots of potential auxiliaries among white supremacists and have “Total Immunity” including immunity from committing murder on camera.
    However, he is becoming increasingly erratic and the various bubbles, including AI, are showing clear signs of collapse.
    Vance is next in line, is he considered pliable enough to serve the interests of those who matter?
    And who will be chosen to succeed him if he isn’t?
    It’s going to be a lively summer, very lively if the AI bubble collapses before the Mid Terms.
    Stay safe and enjoy the show.

    Reply
    1. The Rev Kev

      Man, let’s go with the times and go out with a bang. That being the case, I nominate Laura Loomer as the first Madame President. No doubt Trump will go into retirement with dirt files on anybody that might come after him so that he does not have to worry about going to prison. But he won’t take a vow of silence but will still be posting to his Truth Social account on his death bed. Speaking of which, I came across this on his account-

      ‘I am thrilled to announce the opening of SPIRIT OF ’76 at FREEDOM PLAZA, a new Exhibition in Washington, D.C., honoring the Heroes and Martyrs of the American Revolution. This Exhibition includes a series of statues, including an equestrian statue of Founding Father Caesar Rodney, 12 Soldiers of the Revolution, and a set of reliefs honoring the Prison Ship Martyrs — The nearly 12,000 Americans who lost their lives aboard British ships in conditions of unimaginable deprivation, squalor, and disease. More Americans died on these prison ships than in all of the War’s battles combined — Many of whom willingly endured suffering and death rather than renounce the Patriot cause.’

      So is the word ‘Martyrs’ now a word in common usage in America now?

      Reply
      1. derf

        “So is the word ‘Martyrs’ now a word in common usage in America now?”

        I share your concern, Rev, but I’m hopeful that this is an isolated use of the word. The memorial to the prison ship dead in Fort Greene, Brooklyn is called The Prison Ship Martyrs’ Monument.

        Martyrs are people who choose death rather than renounce their principles. The vast majority of those who died in the prison ships were privateers who were captured at sea. They were given a choice: join the British Navy or go to prison.

        They chose prison and death, making them martyrs. Whether the choice was based on principle or a desire to avoid the hardships of British naval life is open to debate.

        Reply
        1. vao

          “Martyrs are people who choose death rather than renounce their principles.”

          Historically (i.e. Christian and other martyrologies), they chose exceedingly painful death rather than renounce their principles.

          Reply
    2. vao

      “How soon will Trump outlive his usefulness and how violently will he be removed?”

      It is best to keep him in place so that he becomes the scapegoat for all the crises that will shortly strike the USA: the final defeat in the Persian Gulf, with attendant economic hardship; the implosion of the AI bubble, with attendant financial collapse; the incontrovertible climate change scorching crops, torching forests, felling vulnerable people.

      Once he has been thoroughly disparaged for all the problems occurring on his watch, he will be let go and replaced by a new team — but the members of that new team must make sure the tsunami of problems starts and develops under Trump, not under their purview. Hence, I do not see any attempt to push him out any time soon, except of course if he becomes completely and uncontrollably demented in public.

      Reply
      1. JP

        Better he is removed then die in office.He needs to be dragged out kicking and screaming with his corruption exposed., If he dies in office or just finishes his term the repudiation will be much weaker.

        Reply
        1. vao

          I was perhaps not clear in indicating that the strategy I described is the one I surmise republicans and democrats are envisioning.

          For the good of the country and the world, it would be obviously better if Trump were evicted as soon as possible.

          Reply
      2. The Rev Kev

        ‘except of course if he becomes completely and uncontrollably demented in public.’

        Joe Biden went that way but they had him stay his full term anyway – and thus blowing up any chance of an orderly succession. Vane should take note.

        Reply
        1. JP

          That is incorrect. The chance of an orderly succession was thwarted by Biden’s commitment to a second term, not staying in his full term.

          Reply
  13. Rolf

    From Air Force Major Jason Watson’s statements on the steps of the Capitol,

    When the president of the United States orders military action against foreign countries — absent an emergency scenario where American interests are under imminent dire threats, as was done with Venezuela, Cuba and Iran — that’s an unconstitutional usurpation of Congress’s authority and a violation of the War Powers Clause … These violations resulted in the deaths of 13 service members and injuries of hundreds more. For this, the president and vice president must be impeached, convicted and removed

    When the president of the United States sponsors violence on the American people engaged in their constitutional right to peacefully assemble and protest, that’s a violation of our First Amendment rights. Pastors praying for DHS agents violently attacked without provocation … A woman attempting to follow chaotic and contradictory DHS agent instructions fatally gunned down. A subdued man that posed no threat, fatally shot after having his un-brandished firearm removed, with statements by high-ranking Cabinet members also violating our Second Amendment rights. For this, the president and vice president must be impeached, convicted and removed. [emphases added]

    Well, he’s not wrong.

    Reply
    1. coin operated

      No…he’s not. Unfortunately, under the UCMJ definition of insubordination, there is a clause that states “The truth is no defense”

      Reply
      1. nippersdad

        A former Marine went through this topic on his podcast yesterday. It sounds like the UCMJ is inapplicable to this case, and they got him on charges of demonstrating in a restricted area…then he points out the problems with that as well.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDbXw0fyTpM

        I think that this is one of those things that will very quietly go away once the public memory holes it.

        Reply
  14. brian wilder

    RE: Public Opinion: Cornered by the Many, Controlled by the Few

    Finn Andreen offers his “theoretical” insight: “. . . the political philosophy that theoretically is best placed to solve this dilemma of modern society is arguably libertarianism. It clearly argues for a significant and definitive reduction of political power, both nationally and internationally.”

    Libertarians and their puerile arguments in ignorance of experience just make me tired. It is always the same: look at how liberal and anti-authoritarian my problem statement is, please take no notice of how my prescription is sure to produce an unconstrained authoritarianism of nominally “private” power.

    In a free society, that is, in a highly decentralized society with a weak state having at most a nightwatchman role, public opinion cannot be steered.

    Like a huge Media conglomerate controlled by a billionaire is somehow not a concentration of “political” power. Reducing the state to the functions of a night watchman will be countervailing to corrupting concentration of the ability to generate propaganda founded on the claims of property, how exactly?

    Oversimplification in the face of historical experience really shouldn’t be an acceptable form of argument. Power isn’t a zero-sum game unless someone unwisely makes it one.

    Reply
  15. pjay

    – ‘How Florida’s Cuban Diaspora and the Israeli Lobby Came Together — and Are Coming Apart’ – Intercept (resilc)

    This is an excellent and important article. We all know about AIPAC, but the Cuba Lobby (and its current expansion as discussed here) is perhaps just as important historically. Thanks for posting. I disagree that they are “coming apart” – certainly not fast enough at any rate – but very good overall.

    The more The Intercept publishes articles from Greg Grandin and Nick Turse, the more likely I’ll start taking it seriously again.

    Reply
  16. The Rev Kev

    “Musk demanded proof people died from USAID cuts. He got it — and lost it.”

    Musk has very thin skin and goes ballistic when called out on his bs. Maybe Bessent did that when Musk was working out of the White House and Musk tried to punch Bessent out – until Bessent hung a mouse on Musk. And if Musk loses a bet, he will refuse to pay up. I don’t think that Musk would deal well if on a stand in a court of law and the pressure was ramping up.

    Reply
    1. TimH

      Taibbi disclosed a little on how his relationship with Musk soured during teh Twitter files exposés…

      Reply
  17. farmboy

    why the oil shorts are winning!
    Jack Prandelli
    @jackprandelli
    Iran ha a big oil problem 🛢️

    🔸Over 58 million barrels of Iranian crude are floating at sea, more than 90% without a confirmed buyer

    🔸China, Iran’s largest customer, is running refiners at the lowest utilization in 9 years, Iranian imports have more than halved

    🔸India is locked into Russian barrels, Europe won’t touch it over insurance risk and fears US sanctions snap back

    Iran rushed millions of barrels onto the market the moment access reopened.

    The demand side never showed up.

    Iran got its market access back. It didn’t get its market back.

    Reply
    1. ChrisFromGA

      Honestly, I don’t know who Jack Prandelli is or what his credibility level is, but that reads like it was AI-generated.

      And it is rebuttable from sources that are saying China has resumed exports of finished gasoline to Asia, and the teapot refineries are running full blast now.

      Reply
      1. lyman alpha blob

        I have never heard of the guy either, and would add that just because buyers haven’t been confirmed to Mr. Prandelli, that doesn’t mean there are not or won’t be any. Having the oil available for sale would seem to be a more opportune position than it being locked into the strait.

        China’s lack of recent demand seems to be a big mystery. I find it quite possible that China is simply going about its business without advertising it to Western speculators.

        Reply
        1. farmboy

          the unsold oil in shipment is the reason for the outsized, lingering, and dedicated short positions. Selling any commodity that isn’t priced is hedging, and entirely understandable and misunderstood by everyone. At July expiration, shorts rolled over into further out expiry. when will deliveries be booked, oil sales made, crack spreads have a chance to even out?

          Reply
      2. DD GE

        I’d say that at least it HAS been true at some point. Other sources were also pointing to a cluster of Iranian crude tankers near Singapore, with no immediate takers.
        However the situation is obviously ultra-fluid, and today the ever-indispensable HFI Research has a note that mentions the Chinese “coming back”.
        https://substack.com/@hfir/note/c-287724424
        As usual a few days will clarify the picture. Big if true.

        Reply
  18. Verifyfirst

    That survey from the Cato Institute (“nearly half of Americans don’t know what America’s 250th is celebrating”) seems a bit fishy to me, but methodology is not something I know a lot about. I was wondering–how does one even get a representative sample these days? Anyone calling or texting me would go to spam. and if it did not, it is highly unlikely I would be willing to talk to them and answer a bunch of questions, cuz fraudsters and all.

    So all it says for the methodology (that I could find) is:

    “Methodology:
    This poll was conducted between June 25-June 26, 2026 among a sample of 2253 Adults. The interviews were conducted online and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of Adults
    based on gender, age, race, educational attainment, region, gender by age, and race by educational
    attainment. Results from the full survey have a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.”

    It doesn’t say anything about how they found these people they surveyed. And what does it mean to “weight data to approximate a target sample”?

    (my initial suspicion came up because the survey results struck me as being a bit sunny).

    Reply
    1. JP

      I stopped responding to polls some time ago. They do not solicit opinion. They ask a series of black and white questions without any possible nuance. Many questions are structured to illicit a specific slant. The questionaire often will not divulge who is paying for the poll.

      Reply
  19. The Rev Kev

    “Old British fridges ‘cannot cope with the heat'”

    The UK had better hope that this heat wave is not the new norm. There are about 29 million households in the UK so figure a minimum of 25 million fridges. Then you have all the commercial fridges as well in shops and supermarkets and I have no idea how many millions there are there. Point is you are talking billions of pounds/dollars to replace all those with fridges that can withstand the higher temperatures.

    Reply
  20. Steve H.

    Wisdoms include seeing what’s not there. Terrible zeitgeist observation:

    The Saturday morning pastry ride, taking Puppygena to sing to as we drove through the older well-off neighborhood, I was mostly home before I realized I’d seen not one flag, nada, amongst the most experienced virtue signallers in the city. I’ve seen bunting there before. This is the Quarter-Millenium! So we took a scouting trip downtown and back, including the main street, three flags at government buildings and one faded at a house that never takes it down.

    The last couple blocks take us by our outrageous display neighbors, every holiday, Halloween, Easter (with bunnies and eggs), freaking St Paddies day, and they had nothing displayed. Our emotions went from confirmation glow to eerie to sad to wtf. Guys, there was nuthin, not one business had a flag out. I’ve never seen anything so, lacking.

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  21. eg

    Happy 250th to my American friends and neighbours. My birthday wish for you is that the empire may die so that your republic may live and prosper.

    Reply
  22. AG

    re: Nazi Germany

    Henry Moon Pie had a comment up yesterday re: US labour vs. capital.
    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/07/links-7-3-2026.html#comment-4438914

    On this note here a German-language lecture with Engl. subs about how the NSDAP managed to create majority approval via economic incentives that would satisfy many socialdemocratic demands.

    Germany 1933-1945
    80 min. + Q&A
    https://www.youtube.com/live/k1xibiYGDv8

    The historian giving the lecture who was born 1947 used to be a 1968er ie radical left activist of the 1970s and eventually rejected the “student movement” and an overly left agenda.

    Which means in this lecture the resistance of labour – something Henry Moon Pie addressed for the US – and how it was destroyed with brute force by Nazis is not mentioned at all. I assume not least because:

    1) That process was mostly complete by 1933
    2) The historian has become an anti-leftist and would argue German majority was not leftist and that the role of the left in pre-1933 Germany is overstated – a position wich has been criticized in Germany and which obstructed his career and attempt of gaining tenure. He instead worked for newspapers for many years.

    Reply
  23. Carla

    Re: The Fun Shortage — Bloomberg — another fun shortage they don’t mention is that the archived versions of Bloomberg stories now only give you the first two paragraphs of the article, if that.

    Let me mention something really fun — and free — all sorts of classical music recitals and concerts at local conservatories and university music departments. We regularly hear phenomenal performances in beautiful venues this way. Sometimes you have to register for free tickets, but often you can just walk in. Each music department publishes their offerings online.

    Reply

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