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Iran War: Trump Declares MOU Over After Biggest US-Iran Exchange of Strikes Since Signing in Struggle Over Strait of Hormuz Control; US Suspends Iran Oil Sanction Waiver

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[Today’s Iran war post was pretty much complete at launch time, so I expect to be done at 7:30 AM EDT unless there is a big new development. Please return or refresh this page then]

After both the US and Iran moved kinetically up the escalation ladder, with the tit-for-tat was larger than the last dustup over Iran attacks on Oman-side vessels, Trump said at the NATO summit in Ankara that he he has had it with the MOU process. From the Aljazeera landing page:

And from its live feed:

  • US President Donald Trump says the ceasefire deal with Iran is “over”, adds dealing with Tehran is a “waste of time”.
  • His comments come after the US said it launched “powerful strikes” against Iran following attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz, including Qatari and Saudi tankers.

    • Trump on the MoU: ‘I think it’s over’

    The US president has just told reporters at the NATO summit in Ankara that he thinks the memorandum of understanding with Iran is “over”.

    “It’s just a waste of time dealing with them,” said Trump….

    US President Trump has told reporters the following:

    • We hit them [Iran] very hard last night.
    • I told them that every time you hit, we hit, and, of course, they’re dirty players, so they go after everyone, probably including me.
    • We don’t like them. I don’t like them. They’re evil people, and it’s the denuclearisation of Iran. And we’re going to denuke it.
    • I’m not happy with NATO because of the fact that they didn’t want to help us with the number one state-sponsored terror, that’s Iran.

A clip of Trump’s key statement:

We will not dwell on it here but Trump also had a hissy with respect to Spain, saying he will cut off all trade.

A later entry in the feed suggested this Trump declaration might be posturing:

But there were other comments in there: “I might let my wonderful negotiators keep talking.” So, is this just tough talk from Trump, trying to put a line down and say, “this is unacceptable and I’ve shown you my response”? Or does this mean he is really tearing up the Memorandum of Understanding that was agreed on about three weeks ago?

Negotiations had resumed after the previous exchanges of fire, but were halted for the funerals of the former Supreme Leader and other war martyrs. Qatar has planned to set new dates for the earliest possible window after the ceremonies conclude on July 9. Iran International on Twitter cited an Iranian official stating that

the Supreme National Security Council as not having yet decided whether to carry on with the talks

:

A lawmaker said on Wednesday that the United States had violated a memorandum of understanding by rejecting Iran’s role in managing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a member of parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said the agreement and talks had established that shipping through the strait would take place “under the supervision and management of the Islamic Republic of Iran, specifically the IRGC Navy.”..

He also added that the country’s Supreme National Security Council would decide whether to continue negotiations with the United States after the latest strikes.

Keep in mind that at this point, Iran appears to have made the latest round of attacks, in response to the strikes on Iran territory. I do not see evidence of a new US retaliation but that may be coming. First from PressTV in IRGC strikes 85 US military targets in ‘initial’ retaliation, downs MQ-9 drone

The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) says it struck 85 US military targets in Bahrain and Kuwait with missiles and drones in an initial response to to American aggression against Iranian territory.

The IRGC, in a statement issued Wednesday, said the strikes hit facilities at Port Salman, the US Fifth Fleet’s area in Bahrain, and Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait. It also announced the downing of an MQ-9 drone, saying the aircraft attempted to interfere with the operation before it was shot down.

Per Aljazeera’s live feed about 7 hours ago:

  • Air raid sirens blare for a second time in Bahrain after Iran said it launched retaliatory attacks over the US bombardment of its Hormozgan province.
  • Kuwait has also announced that it is confronting hostile drone and missile attacks.
  • Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says it “destroyed 85 US military installations” in Bahrain and Kuwait.
  • US Central Command (CENTCOM) says it hit more than 80 targets inside Iran, and that the strikes were in response to attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday.
  • Iranian media say most sites hit were civilian, including fishing piers and a telecommunications tower, and that several people were taken to the hospital after a strike on Sirik.

    • In the “fog of information” category, there are Twitter claims of a fourth strike on a tanker, allegedly per UKMTO, but I have yet to see them make a live feed:

    And fresh entries from the Middle East Online live feed (in the last hour), so it appears Iran strikes are continuing:

    Explosions heard in Bahrain as Iran says any site enabling US attack is ‘legitimate target’

    Several explosions rang out across Bahrain, an AFP correspondent said, after authorities sounded air raid sirens to warn of an attack.

    “Loud” blasts were heard in the north of the island state, the correspondent said, in the first incident since Bahrain reported intercepting Iranian drones and missiles on June 28.

    Iran’s military, meanwhile, warned that any site enabling the United States to attack the country would be considered a “legitimate target”.

    “Any support provided to the aggressive American army to violate the sovereignty and territory of Islamic Iran will be a legitimate target of the armed forces,” the military said in a statement. (Reporting by AFP)

    Mind you, with Trump’s intense need to be always seen as the driver of events, he may well have sensed that the Iranians were about to cancel the agreement and he wanted the US to quit rather than be fired. But earlier, Trump had been merrily tweeting some of the US strikes:

    The Bloomberg landing page shows that oil prices are up by over 6%. From its account, Trump Says US Ceasefire With Iran Is ‘Over’ After Strikes:

  • US President Donald Trump said his tentative ceasefire with Iran is done, raising the prospect of a renewed military conflict between the two countries.
  • Trump’s remarks came after the US launched a new wave of strikes against Iran and revoked a waiver that allowed the sale of Iranian oil, in response to recent attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The developments marked the most serious threat to the interim peace deal, with the US blaming Iran for the attacks on shipping, and Tehran saying the military strikes and waiver revocation violated the agreement between the two countries….

    • Oil prices, which touched a peak near $125 a barrel in late April, had returned toward pre-conflict levels this month on signs of a recovery. But following the Treasury decision, oil prices surged again on Tuesday.

    Many markets are having a sad:

    This Bloomberg article included “A US official said negotiators would continue to work toward a final deal” but with Trump at NATO and it still being before the business day in the US, official Washington is likely not yet to have gotten any marching orders from Trump. But Secretary of Defense Hegseth seems to feel the need to be on deck:

    With Iran having landed the latest blow, what happens during the US day will be telling, as in whether the US engages in more threat display or sees fit to hit back.

    But recall in addition to what CENTCOM said were 80 strikes on Iran targets on Queshm and Larak Islands and the Bandar Abbas port (with Iran reporinng 85 counter-attacks), the US is also revoking the sanctions waiver on Iran oil sales as of July 17.

    As Iran was quick to call out, this sanctions reversal was yet another US breach of the MOU, although it had the effect of also showing this sanctions relief, and potentially most of the relief that the US was planning to provide, was on the cheap, as in mere waivers that could be quickly unwound, as opposed to measures that would cancel the underlying restrictions.1 The Trump team may have felt this was a viable move now, since they no doubt believe their own oil glut story and so believe they do need to get Iran oil to the market to keep oil prices down. Those who watch oil inventories would beg to differ, since the Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdown last week was 6.2 million barrels.

    From the Iran perspective, the cancellation of the oil waiver is more significant in negotiation/power terms than in economic terms. Iran can still sell the oil it has at sea at favorable prices, even factoring in the expected sanctions discount. But the termination of the waiver is not just yet another demonstration of US bad faith dealing, but also another slap, of treating Iran as a party than can be trifled with.

    But the US has not reimposed the further world-economy-harming blockade on Iran.

    This escalation and presumed end of the attempt to reach a settlement comes as other pieces of the equation are moving. Trump had just announced that he intends to sell Turkiye F-35s and also end (as in really end) the sanctions against Turkiye. This has enraged Netanyahu and Israel, since Turkiye is behind only Iran2 on Israel’s official enemies list. Netanyahu is set to come to Washington DC next week to meet Trump and likely members of Congress. Will Netanyahu succeed in demanding that the US really really owes him one after strengthening its ties to a country Israel sees as an opponent? And in particularly, now is the time to teach Iran a lesson?

    But others speculate that the F-35s are a big fat bribe:

    The reason I doubt that Erdogan would do all that much is he is fabulously wily. Mixing it up with Iran would mean taking some sort of action now, while the F-35s come later….which could be never. Why take risk on Trump completing his part of the deal? Although more symbolic/optical moves are in a different category.

    And just after I penned the above paragraph, corroboration of sorts in a new tweet:

    Another part of the equation is that the Gulf States had been slowly coming to grips with the idea that they would have to find a modus vivendi with Iran, given that US security was worse than useless. That seemed to be happening with the Saudis and even later the UAE denying the US the use of their airspace. But the Gulf States are not on board with the Iran plan to control Strait of Hormuz traffic, as shown by their statement after a meeting with Marco Rubio. As much as they are furious with the US, they do not want to become captives to Iran.

    Given Iran’s insistence on keeping control of the Strait of Hormuz, along with Professor Robert Pape’s explanation of how Iran’s paramount objective is building power, the idea that there was some way Iran and the Gulf States could share control seemed vanishingly unlikely. Nevertheless, from Trita Parsi’s generally unduly optimistic How the US-Iran fight in the Strait of Hormuz can be resolved before it blows up the MOU:

    The compromise discussed before the talks were suspended offers a sensible way out. Requiring vessels to notify both Iran and a designated GCC maritime authority would defer the sovereignty dispute without prejudging its outcome, allowing commercial traffic to continue while negotiations over a permanent arrangement proceed. Sacrificing the entire MOU—and the far more consequential regional framework it could ultimately produce—over the question of who nominally manages the Strait for the next few weeks would be a costly and unnecessary mistake.

    To counter Parsi, Professor Pape has said that Iran cannot (and needs not) to make concessions, that they lay the groundwork for further concessions. Iran would not buy for a second that letting GCC states play a hand in traffic management “would defer the sovereignty dispute without prejudging its outcome.” It would become the new normal, putting Iran in the position of having to claw back any change in status.

    The latest set of attacks, with Saudi, Qatar and UAE vessels as the victims, look to have set any rapprochement back. From the Gulf News live feed

    Gargash: Iran’s attacks show failure to commit to de-escalation

    Dr Anwar Gargash, Diplomatic Adviser to the UAE President, has said Iran’s reported attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and repeated aggression against Bahrain and Kuwait demonstrate that Tehran is unwilling to commit to de-escalation or move beyond the recent conflict.

    In a post on X on Wednesday, Gargash said the reported attacks on Saudi and Qatari commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, together with the repeated acts of aggression against Bahrain and Kuwait, were “a clear indication that Tehran is incapable of adhering to the requirements of de-escalation and turning the page on war”.

    “The Gulf Arab states cannot continue to be the target of Iran’s oscillation between the logic of escalation and the path of rationality, stability and peace,” he said.

    Gargash’s remarks came after Saudi Arabia and Qatar separately condemned reported attacks on commercial vessels linked to the two countries while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with both holding Iran responsible and warning that the incidents threatened international maritime security and global energy supplies.

    Critically, Oman has joined in the censure of the latest Iran strikes on shipping as well as its response to US retaliation. From Aljazeer’s live feed:

    Oman condemns attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and commercial ships

    Oman’s Foreign Ministry has released a statement condemning Iran’s attacks on sites in Bahrain and Kuwait as well as on two commercial ships from Saudi Arabia and Qatar in the Strait of Hormuz.

    The statement affirmed Oman’s solidarity with its neighbouring countries and said increasing military tensions in the region threaten Oman’s safety and security. It also said the attacks threaten global trade networks and energy supplies.

    Oman urged all parties involved to exercise “self-control”, refrain from escalating the situation and return to diplomacy.

    And before you think this is just talk, the Saudis let the US use their base in this operation, albeit as a presumed fallback:

    More on the impact of the cancellation of the sanctions waiver on Iran, via Bloomberg reporter Javier Blas on Twitter:

    A reminder of what the US waiver revocation on Iranian oil sales means — and doesn’t mean:

    Iran can still sell its oil if it finds a willing buyers (and China has been in the past, and will be again). Yes, Iran will need to discount its oil, but that would be mostly offset by the rise in oil prices triggered by the fresh hostilities. The biggest problem for Iran? It would have to use (again) non-US dollar settlement.

    Put it all together, and Tehran would be able to sell the ~60 million barrels it has put on the water so far since the blockade was lifted, at relatively good prices (~$65-70 a barrel), making probably ~$4 billion.

    Only a return to the US Navy blockade would stop Iran from selling its oil. But that means a new war.

    Needless to say, ship operators do not want to be in a war zone. From Middle East Eye’s live feed:

    Four oil and gas tankers turn back from Hormuz after vessel attacks

    Three Qatari-controlled liquefied natural gas tanker (LNG) tankers were inching westward towards the Strait of Hormuz before changing course to turn away late on Tuesday, data from analytics firms Kpler and LSEG shows.

    All three tankers were empty and heading towards Qatar’s Ras Laffan export facility to load cargoes..

    LSEG and Kpler data also showed the Indian-flagged very large crude carrier (VLCC) Lila Vadinar, which is carrying two million barrels of Kuwaiti crude loaded late last week, made a U-turn off the tip of Oman in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday.

    And:

    A few additional information tidbits:

    From CNN in Exclusive: US commanders bypassed warnings about outdated intelligence ahead of strike that hit school in Iran, sources say:

    Senior US military commanders bypassed warnings in critical databases that intelligence about potential targets in Iran was severely out of date and approved some strikes — including one that hit a school, killing nearly 200 hundred children and adults, according to three sources familiar with the decision-making process.

    Messages indicating the intelligence was based on years-old intelligence that needed to be re-vetted were embedded in a system used for developing targets and required a senior officer to approve adding a site to the strike list, according to the sources.

    The decision by senior commanders to ignore the warnings was made for “expediency,” two of the sources said, in a rush to provide targets at the start of the war. But it also directly contributed to the accidental strike on the school, the sources added.

    The strike killed at least 168 children and 14 teachers, according to Iranian state media. Those numbers would make the strike one of the worst civilian casualty incidents in recent US military history. The US military launched an investigation in the days after the strike.

    I anticipate, if anyone asks Scott Ritter about this finding, they’ll get another blistering take. He called out the strike at the time, saying in his days, targets were relentlessly re-vetted since it was well known information could be stale.

    And last but not least:

    Done for today! I suspect we’ll have a lot of noise, and maybe even some signal, from US/Anglosphere pols and pundits during the US business day. We’ll see what shakes out soon enough.

    _____

    1 Please forgive us for not belaboring as to how this might be done, since it varies. For instance, the US would need the backing of the E-3 to unwind the JCOPA sanctions (still observed by some European states), when France’s foreign minister said approval was conditioned on the Europe being involved in the settlement, and insinuated that the pact would need to limit Iran’s ballistic missiles and support for “proxies.” The bigger impediment is the Trump team lacks the competence, the support and the tenacity to do anything hard.

    2 Remember that Israel does not deem Hezbollah and Hamas to be independent actors.

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    169 comments

    1. Yves Smith Post author

      All done on the early side for this feature. If you started reading before the time of this comment, please reload the page and re-skim.

      Reply ↓
    2. The Rev Kev

      Trump really wigged out about the Iranians being unwilling to surrender to him and let him win the war. He even made it personal and called the Iranians ‘scum’ – twice. Not much different when last year he called Iranians ‘animals.’ For some reason Trump really has got a chip on his shoulder about Iranians and has made it personal.

      I notice that good old Pete Hegseth has cancelled his trip to Israel. Maybe he realized that the war is back on again and that Israel may soon be taking hits from Iran. And that the life of Mr. and Mrs. Hegseth’s favourite son Peter was too valuable to risk hanging around a live fire zone. Those are some real warrior values there, Pete.

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      1. ChrisFromGA

        Orange Julius is probably enraged because he got humiliated at the NATO summit … his MoU fell apart in front of Meloni, Macron, and Erdogan, all cool cats who got inside his head like the cool kids in HS.

        He has nobody to bully now because he’s been revealed as a punk by the Iranians. They’re like the smaller kid who stood up to the bully by punching him back in the face.

        Everything with this guy can be explained by going back to High school, as he never progressed emotionally past 10th grade.

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      2. LeMon3

        At first I was thinking that it would be kind of neat for Kegsbreath have a good long look at the business end of whatever hypersonic doodad that Iran might throw at him (do my anarcho-syndicalist soul good and all of that), but then I had a horrible thought – what if the Septics replaced him with someone competent???
        As you say, stay out of the firing line, Petey boy…

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      3. DD GE

        I was just thinking that we haven’t really seen much of him these last few weeks, have we ? Not that there’s anything wrong with that.
        If kino restarts, though, we might be treated with harebrained turns of phrase again.

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        2. redleg

          They have to keep him out of harm’s way as IMO he will be the key stooge for deploying the military to disrupt elections. I don’t think they could find another person dumb or sycophantic enough to replace him before October.

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      4. ilsm

        In a brief clip Trump and Erdogan reviewing honor guard. Trump looked and walked terrible!

        Midsection bulge of suit…. gait.

        What in the TACO Sunday menu?

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      5. Acacia

        Yes, Yves reported Hegseth cancelling his trip to Israel.

        I suppose there is a sliver of a silver lining, as we won’t have to endure the inevitable PR photo of Hegseth wearing a yarmulke, bowing to the Zionists, and kissing the Western Wall in Jerusalem — at least not yet.

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    3. ProNewerDeal

      I dissaprove of all Presidents from Reagan onwards in this 1981-now neoliberal/Reagonomics era. Perhaps Biden was the least worst with some positives including Lina Khan/FCC, pro-union NLRB labor appointees CFPB/financial regulation; & alongside Biden’s negatives of killing the Public Option & 15 Federal min wage he camplaigned on, & funding Isra3l’s Gaza G3noc1de.

      However imho ConManDon Trump is definitely the worst & far worse than the others. There is the more severe fasc1st actions that are worse than Bush43 or any other Reagan to Biden neoliberal Presidents, including the no-due process detaining of undocumented immigrants (although some turned out to be document immigrants or citizens) with a reported 40 that died under custody & 4000 missing – sounds like a milder version of Chile/Pinochet “disappering” thousands of people.

      But a 2nd point I don’t see others remark on the Captain Chaos nature of ConManD0n. He agrees to this MoU & then disregards it (15?) days later. How are US workers, US companies, & foreigners supposed to plan for anything with ConManD0n’s chaotic nature? What are consumers & businesses supposed to do with uncertainty of oil, food (from fertilizer shortage) prices, among other key items? Is ConManD0n’s chaotic bs reducing world GDP & increasing excess deaths?

      Consider that ConManD0n does do crazy fasc1st actions, like protect the IC3 officer murders of Renee Good & Alex Pretti. So when ConManD0n threatens Greenland or suddenly threaten to raise tariffs to 100%+ but then fails to follow through or backs down, I can’t fault the EU (on Greenland) or corporate factory new site execs (on tariffs) for preparing for the worst & the ConManD0n threat, because ConManD0n in several cases has done several crazy chaotic fasc1st actions.

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          1. Peter Steckel

            If Dems can elect Clinton after the credible rape allegations made in the 1992 and 1996 campaigns (not to mention the sexual assault allegation against Biden), I think Platner has a talking point. Clearly being an alleged rapist is not a hindrance to the presidency, why should it be a hindrance to running for Senate.

            You held your nose for the “better” man, now hold your nose for the “lesser” man . . .

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            1. Michael Fiorillo

              #McResistance D’s hate and fear the Left far more than they do Trump/Repugs, since advances by the former make them irrelevant, while advances by the latter are a fundraising gold mine. Platner Agonistes is just the latest iteration.

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            2. Jeff

              Reminding the chat that Platner had a Nazi tattoo, served 4 tours in the Marines in Iraq, and then went back for more with blackwater. He is not worth defending

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              1. Just another Old Guy

                Yeah the tattoo thing is not a good look. But criticizing someone for serving 4 combat tours is not a good look either, as he was obligated to go where he was told – it is just part of the deal. A lot of us have been at that place and you keep word or you don’t.

                He did not work for Blackwater. He worked for Constellis in 2018, for 6 months,…as a driver for the US Ambassadors security detail. He was not at all the former Special Ops kind of Blackwater person you imply.

                Blackwater morphed a lot over the years and operated under several names and management structures. It (named Xe Services by this time) was sold in 2010 to a new management group and renamed Academi. At this point Eric Prince no longer had any ownership or management authority in the company and the way it operated changed significantly. In 2014 Triple Canopy merged with Academi and became Constellis. In 2016 Constellis was purchased by Apollo Global Management. It went through bankruptcy restructuring in 2020. It still exists today as a paramilitary style security company of course. But it is not even close to the kind of place Blackwater (and Triple Canopy and DynCorp) were back in 2005-6. And if you infer from what I wrote that I must know a number of the people involved in the above you would be correct.

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              2. Yves Smith Post author

                It is not an actual Nazi tattoo, not at all a swastika. It is more accurately a tattoo that is Nazi-adjacent, IIRC could be depicted as a black sun. I saw it but oddly cannot remember what it looked like.

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                1. redleg

                  It was a Totenkopf.
                  I’m a former army guy and a WW2 history buff, and I didn’t put 2+2 together to realize that the Totenkopf was unique to Nazis until mid- 2010s. I probably should have known better, and I’m not letting the guy off the hook, but it is possible to miss important details until experience and learning catches up to provide important context.

                  Reply ↓
                  1. John Kane

                    I was under the impression that the original Totenkopf insignia dated back to King Frederick the Great’s Deathhead Hussars in the 18th C.

                    I don’t know what version Platner has but a somewhat intoxicated young marine without a BA in WWII history might not have appreciated the symbolism at the time.

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                  2. A Little Bird

                    If it’s a totenkopf it’s a Nazi tattoo. Zero ambiguity. I’m sure the tattoo artist knew what it was, and ignorance is not a defence. Use of the swastika predated the Nazis also, it’s context that changes the meaning from ambiguous to explicit. It may not mean *he is a Nazi* in this case, but it does mean I sure wouldn’t vote for him or put a lot of stock in what he says, he’s either lying or is just ignorant and not up to the task of government.

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                  3. hk

                    Was it? Death’s head insignia was fairly common historically, like pirates, for example. The SS took theirs from the emblem of the Prussian hussars, who used it going back to 18th century–there are portraits of WW1 German cavalry officers sporting big Death’s Head on their hats, most notably von Mackensen, and most of these people did not go on to associate too closely with thr Nazis. I confess to not knowing if the SS death’s head looks all that unique, but it seems to have been common enough. (I will say that the Black Sun symbol is more uniquely associated with the Nazis in more recent past.)

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                2. Michael Fiorillo

                  We call what the Azov-ites have tattooed on their bodies Nazi insignia, and should be honest enough to say the same about the likes of Platner.

                  Also, while I loathe the job #McResistance D’s and media are doing on him, he was a merc in Iraq, for Blackwater-by-another-name. Punto finito.

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                  1. jefemt

                    I cannot give Platner a Pass. Really, that he didn’t have the cojones to side-step two parties and run as an Independent… if there ever a year to roll those dice.

                    Anyway, no Platner .

                    As to the tattoo, I try to not judge on metal piercings or Tats. I am trying to learn to not judge, or as my friend says, to be more careful what I think.
                    I wish Platner had a chance to sit in on my wife’s counselling of our then-three year old son, who wanted a tattoo of a Teenage Ninja Turtle ( he is 40 now). She somehow was able to get him to tuck in and have the notion of the lifetime image of something that might be a bit passee or provincial, in lieu of a Grand Symbol or message.
                    Mom (heart)
                    Boat Anchor.. navy, or Metaphor for Life?
                    Yin Yan, or Christian cross.

                    I have a pal with a Chilly willy tat, and our kids are inked with some interesting fodder.

                    But I can’t give a pass on Nazism or fascism, or four tours, and then private sector. He exhibits an ability to whore and lack even some baseline values)

                    I am not in ME, I can’t vote, regardless.

                    Maybe folks will write him in!!!

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              3. nippersdad

                Drunk twenty year old Marines getting skull tattoos while on leave is not terribly hard to envision, septuagenarian Democratic pols who laud Banderites criticizing him for potential Nazi tendencies is another story altogether.

                He doesn’t look like, walk like or talk like a Nazi, it is that telling that those criticizing him do.

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            3. Camelotkidd

              The whole Platner expose smells fishy. There’s no way that a socialist runs for the Senate if he raped someone, knowing the powers that be will throw everything against him. I don’t think he thinks he raped someone. I think he had sex with this woman and she’s been paid to say he raped her.

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              2. Lefty Godot

                I have a feeling there will always be a sex scandal cooked up for any socialist type person who really threatens to dent the uniparty consensus nationally. They’re probably just waiting on Mamdani to see if that needs to be done or if he’ll fade away otherwise. And if one sex scandal is not enough, they’ll find someone to allege an even worse and more despicable one. Of course Democrats like Clinton and Biden will survive any sex scandal accusations thrown against them, and their accusers will have their names besmirched one way or another. And as Tucker Carlson said, many of the current Congress critters are deathly afraid of the FBI breaking down their door in the night and “finding” kiddie p0rn in their PCs that wasn’t there a few hours before, that just appeared somehow. Having those threats to hold over people’s heads and only use when needed has been SOP since the days of J. Edgar Hoover. How credible are any of these claims in such a rigged system?

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              1. Just another Old Guy

                And where I live it is vote Red, no matter who or what.

                We have to clean both bathrooms or there is no point in cleaning any…right?

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            5. Redolent

              Platner Agonistes smells of 2018….BK vs CBF playbook …of the supremes, recycled.
              Only now Maine is the decider, not the senate…or the ABA’s well qualified endorsement. Or even gwb, who allegedly ‘twisted arms’ of hesitant moderate gop senators to support BK

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          2. Samuel Conner

            And soliciting funds for the DNC lawyers to oppose DJT. I get these all the time, and each time I mentally promise to contribute only on condition that every dollar I contribute will be offset by a reduction of ten dollars in the next election cycle efforts to kick progressives and 3rd party competitors off the ballot. Money is fungible and I don’t want to fund the DNC war chest against competitors to the left of the D party.

            Reply ↓
            1. Buzz Meeks

              Or the processing fee to ActBlue. They are making a hell of a lot of money off of these solicitations at three bucks a pop processing fee.
              I now will only contribute by check to a candidate. Last time I was Burned by Bernie, I paid by PayPal to ActBlue and when Ol’ Canvasback folded I filed for a refund for reasons of not getting what I had paid for. I got the refund.

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          1. OverHandWristFlip

            no, it’s not. it’s the first point he tried to make and failed.

            No amount of Lina Khan can come close to mitigating Biden’s genocide, and the other examples given are a farce. Banking regulation? Labor politics? I don’t think so…

            He doesn’t get a pass by his initial claim of dismissing all presidents before Reagan. For one, Carter was the first neo-liberal and his anti-labor moves combined with Chicago School economics created the path for Trump’s life-long and continuing grift, which no Democrat got in the way of before he ran for POTUS. I don’t think ya need to inflate the Democratic failure as less bad just to make the point that Trump, obviously, is the worst. Sine qua non. He’s the culmination of everything which came before and was himself, once, a Democrat.

            Yours is an argument for “lesser evil” consideration and I don’t buy that, never did.

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            1. LilD

              Yeah, but he’s ranking post Reagan presidents…
              I think I’ll go for Bush I but it’s a choice between different flavors of sh*t sandwiches

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            2. tegnost

              Biden stopped the Railroad strike by counteracting their leverage…
              I’m sure representative pelosi along with many other dems agreed with this action.

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      2. Yves Smith Post author

        We did discuss Trump’s crazy actions and whipsaws at length in connection with his tariffs and trade deal attempts. Hate to tell you, but in terms of velocity of flip-flop, the MOU is tame compared to that.

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    4. GlassHammer

      So…. out of time to avoid the iceberg of “depleted strategic reserves”.

      Out of time for the iceberg of “production slow-down” in various countries embedded in global supply chains.

      Out of time for food prices increasing and it’s going to be a larger multi-season hit.

      If your house needs heating oil get it now and if your house needs a few months of food get it now.

      Reply ↓
    6. The Rev Kev

      ‘MenchOsint
      @MenchOsint
      Trump promised F-35s to Turkey … i believe he is expecting something regarding Iran from them.’

      Erdogan may be a lot of things but he is not a fool. Is Trump hoping that the Turks will attack Iran which will therefore involve the rest of NATO? That would be a fabulously reckless move, especially when the pay off is a Trump promise – which is worth zip. But being promised F-35s is problematical itself. Erdogan must know that none of the deliveries of any F-35s would not include radars as the US can’t get the refined rare earths from China to build them. So what would be the point of a fighter without a working radar? In addition, Israel has demanded that Trump not supply F-35s to Turkiye so for sure they will get Congress to shoot down that idea dead. Erdogan should know too that with Trump, that any promise should be COD. If Trump’s promise does not turn up at their door, then they know that it will never come no matter how many times Trump assures them that ‘it is in the mail.’

      Reply ↓
      1. Haymer Doots

        “know too that with Trump, that any promise should be COD. ”

        Wow, you are trusting! Personally I’d want cleared funds. And if Iran closes the Strait (a distinct possibility at some time) then I would not be surprised if they require their frozen assets back in their banks and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon before re-opening.

        The idea being that if their first offer gets rejected, the price goes up.

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      2. Samuel Conner

        I may be mistaken, but I have the impression that on-board radar is primarily for detection and engagement of aerial targets. F-35 is also a strike platform, and I think it can perform that function without on-board radar.

        Reply ↓
        1. The Rev Kev

          The big deal about the F-35 was that is was a stealth plane. But carrying missiles externally makes it show up on radars. It does have an internal compartment for bombs but it is not very large. Both the US and Israel are very careful about using them so that they are not in a position to be shot down. That is why during the 12 day war when an aerial armada was on its way to Iran, that it immediately turned around when their sensors showed that they were being picked up on Iranian radars. Having F-35s being shot down is not good for sales you understand.

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          1. JCC

            Not to mention multiple reports saying the F-35 deploments are anywhere from 33% to 66% mission incapable at any one time. And those are our deployment figures, the builders of the F-35. I cannot believe that a purchasing country’s numbers are any better.

            Reply ↓
            1. redleg

              The function of the F-35 is a multirole tactical and strategic fighter. The purpose of the F-35 is to make enormous amounts of money. To fulfill the purpose, the aircraft has to be just functional enough to be useful but not so functional that it cuts into profits, including from the next aircraft design.

              A 25% readiness rate means that a buyer has to have 4 of the things to be 100% ready.

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    7. HH

      Israel’s concern about F-35s going to Türkiye is somewhat overblown, since the U.S. can neutralize these planes indirectly by cutting off parts support, and possibly directly via software back doors. Note that Israel’s F-35s have Israeli developed software, an arrangement not enjoyed by other foreign operators of the aircraft.

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      1. Huey

        I had thought of the first point for sure, I don’t get why F35 sales today can be considered a good deal for the buyer. I did not know lsraeI had their ownl personal software though. Next you’re going to telll me they also have Intel chips on their PCs without the Intel Management Engine backdoor built in…

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        1. mrsyk

          There is an off smell to the “f-35 on again!” announcement. Are those French horns I hear in the background?
          Erdogan has a plan for sure. Trump is likely to get played at some point.

          Reply ↓
      2. motorslug

        Why would anyone buy a piece of junk like the F-35 when they could get an SU-35 or maybe even SU-57 for half the price? And they actually work.

        Reply ↓
        1. Polar Socialist

          Because the F-35 comes with a powerful military ally that can protect you from… oh, wait, never mind.
          I guess one can be pretty sure that one won’t be bombed by the USA if one buys the F-35, so there’s that. It may even protect one from sanctions – so that Lockheed Martin will get paid – but it won’t protect one from the tariffs, that’s for sure.

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        2. SeventyTwoTrillion

          At this point I’m surprised that the US isn’t paying other countries to take them off their hands. While I do think it’s definitely possible to go too far into the anti-F-35 rabbithole to the point where you can get blindsided by their occasional effectiveness, it’s still hard to look at the official statistics of their airtime and their performance in actual combat and conclude that this is the creme de la creme of aircraft technology.

          Then again, perhaps that’s the exact reason to celebrate certain countries buying them – if it weakens the enemies of the developing world, then sure, let Europe gobble them up. Turkiye is a bit of a special case caught between two worlds in many respects, so it’s hard to outright dismiss him the same way you might one of the US’s satrapies in Europe or the Middle East or East Asia, but based on him continuing to supply inputs to Israel when that pressure would be very meaningful at going towards stopping a genocide, I’ve never gotten the impression that Erdogan stands for the betterment of the downtrodden, to put it lightly.

          Reply ↓
      1. The Rev Kev

        It occurs to me that with tank bottom approaching and Trump knowing it, that he has decided to make one last roll of the dice and try for a military victory. Nothing else is working as the Iranians won’t buckle so maybe, maybe the military will be finally be able to deliver him a grand slam victory to take into the Midterms. But if it fails, he’s screwed.

        Reply ↓
        1. ChrisFromGA

          You’re assuming a plan, and a plan presumes a functioning cerebellum.

          Don operates off the amygdala, linking fear and humiliation to behavior.

          Reply ↓
          1. Huey

            Just a small quibble, but your cerebellum is generally more known for helping you remain balanced and coordinating movement, Don’s own should still be doing pretty okay, but the cereberum is where all the ‘higher-order’ thinking takes place, assuming no amygdala fight-flight high-jacking as you mentioned.

            If you’ve ever watched/read X-Men, Cerebro gets used to read everyone’s thoughts and was probably named after the brain ‘region’ as well.

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            1. ChrisFromGA

              Duly noted. I presume that Don’s cerebrum has thoroughly rotted out, and his cerebellum is next.

              Completely off-topic, but speaking of cognitive degeneration, McConnell may be brain-dead according to Laura Loomer:

              (source is essentially a gossip rag, but still a fun read! I especially liked the part about his wife not bothering to be at his bedside, instead flying to China. I guess that business takes precedence over family.)

              https://www.thedailybeast.com/mitch-mcconnells-wife-elaine-chao-makes-jaw-dropping-admission-about-his-health

              Reply ↓
            2. motorslug

              D.J.T. did a job on me
              Now I am a real sickie
              Guess I’ll have to break the news
              That I got no mind to lose
              All the girls are in love with me
              I’m a teenage lobotomy, yeah

              Slugs and snails are after me
              D.J.T. keeps me happy
              Now I guess I’ll have to tell ’em
              That I got no cerebellum
              Gonna get my Ph.D.
              I’m a teenage lobotomy

              apologies to Joey Ramone

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            3. DD GE

              I’ve been told I’m all medula oblongata all the time.
              Wonder if that’s a compliment though ;-)

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        2. Tom Stone

          Trump will be fine, his Family has more than doubled its wealth over the last year or so.
          It’s the tens of Millions of Americans who won’t be able to afford rent or food to eat that will suffer.
          And we don’t matter.
          Until we do.

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        4. coin operated

          Trump would need boots on the ground to ensure a military victory in Iran. That means lots of flag-covered coffins landing at Dover AFB. I hope Trump understands that lots of dead G.I.s are also not a good look for the mid-terms.

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          1. Travis Bickle

            Trump HAS to strike, better seen as lashing out, because there’s nothing else he can do. And it isn’t as though it won’t hurt Iran, which is the point.

            But the problem is not just this MOU, but any agreement that might develop along these line. Any of the MOU points makes Iran a winner in his zero-sum mind, and in reality. Nothing is happening here in the slightest way unexpected; it was a pause of expediency, and everyone knows it.

            There is an inevitability to how this all plays out. There will be nothing but bluster and BS until things get real for the US: the oil cliff, which they will BS about even as we go over it….at which point Trump will blame it all on Biden (sarcasm aside: someone else).

            I know the arguments against the GCC not going behind Trump (Israel’s) back to reach an accommodation with Iran (facilitated by China?), but that is where it seems this thing has to finally go.

            The world must have the oil; The GCC (and Iran) must get it out there; Israel (and its dumb buddy) are standing in the way. What am I missing? Sure, Israel must take out Iran less its ongoing regional dominion be challenged (after which there will be Türkiye), but are they THAT all-powerful???

            The parallels are leaky, but I just cannot get past being reminded of George and Lennie from Of Mice and Men, when thinking of the US/Israel relationship.

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          1. Yves Smith Post author

            We did have that big bunch of trapped and loaded tankers get out of the Gulf. Probably reduced EU or Asian demand, so lower US exports to them, so a wee bit of build here.

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    9. funemployed

      China has greatly reduced it’s refining since the start of the war. It seems to me that with the recent campaign against Russian refineries there is now a strong financial and geopolitical incentive for China to bring more refining capacity back online to supply Russia with refined products. If China increases it’s crude purchases by even a few million barrels per day it will dramatically shorten the runway to the global oil cliff.

      Reply ↓
      1. mrsyk

        Yet to date, China has taken great pains to soften the blow of shortages within her regional theater. I get the impression that China is focused on stability and would like to see less volatility in the global energy markets.

        Reply ↓
        1. Yves Smith Post author

          No, China imposed an export ban in March. Indonesia and the Philippines did get some supply from China then but no one was sure whether they made an exception or the allocations had been made before the ban. We had to get some stopgap oil from Angola.

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      2. Steve H.

        From Unrestricted Warfare (1999):

        > For example, in this era of economic integration, if some economically powerful company wants to attack another country’s economy while simultaneously attacking its defenses, it cannot rely completely on the use of ready-made means such as economic blockades and trade sanctions, or military threats and arms embargoes. Instead, it must adjust its own financial strategy, use currency revaluation or devaluation as primary, and combine means such as getting the upper hand in public opinion and changing the rules sufficiently to make financial turbulence and economic crisis appear in the targeted country or area, weakening its overall power, including its military strength.

        Note that of the (now) four global superpowers, China is the only one not exchanging missile fire with someone.

        Unrestricted Warfare is China’s version of Full-Spectrum Dominance. The focus on currency is beyond my understanding, but Qiao Liang did put a timeframe on the issue in 2016:

        > China not only doesn’t see the necessity to fight a war but believes that a war directly or indirectly against America would be against Chinese national interests. It thinks that Washington will not fight Beijing for the next ten years, but to make sure that in ten years the US doesn’t change its mind, China must set its affairs in order and internationalize its currency, the RMB. This broad strategic vision also provides a deep justification for the ongoing anti-corruption campaign. China must hurry to overhaul its economy to face the risks of the next decade. If it doesn’t do it now, in a decade it could well be doomed.

        The first point here is that China’s strategic leadership has considered itself in conflict with USA for at least a decade.

        The second is that these resources by Qiao Liang are hitting their use-by dates this year. Technical, social, and geopolitical conditions have changed enough that the underlying principles must be re-applied to present conditions.

        The third is that prior to Feb 28, the US economy was an inverted pyramid balance on Nvidia, with the tech accelerationists circle-jerking each other for phantom gains. Zitron is skeptical the infrastructure is capable of build-out. TINA is a federal bailout. This is the fragile system which China can leverage as US government legitimacy is collapsing. That analysts have not been able to figure out what China is doing oil-wise is an indication China considers that strategic information.

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        1. Yves Smith Post author

          *Sigh*

          China will not “internationalize” its currency. It would have to run pretty large trade deficits on a sustained basis, which = exporting jobs, AND abadon currency control.

          Reply ↓
          1. Steve H.

            Thank you, Yves, I can see that part of his statement is overstated. They’ve given no indication of making renminbi the reserve currency. I’m remembering that Iran wanted oil payments in yuan, but that can be taken as a particular situation, without enough volume to destabilize the currency. But China ignoring US sanctions by purchasing the oil both undercuts the utility of the dollar, and allows the US to continue depleting its munitions (‘never interrupt your enemy…’). This fits with unrestricted/full-spectrum doctrine. Taiwan has to be looking at the GCC and re-evaluating how much the US can help them, which reorients the relationship with China proper.

            To be clear, I don’t think China is a puppet-master with Iran, and their interests could diverge. But at this point China can take no US better than the US can take no China, with nearly 90% of their exports going elsewhere. Without being so extreme, they can still squeeze the US enough to disrupt morale and government legitimacy going into the midterms. I hope I’m not being Orientalist about them being wily, but they have historical form. And a certain credibility in not bombing anyone.

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          2. amfortas

            ive been wanting to ask you about this, but keep forgetting(for an unemployed cripple, i stay rather busy)
            i cant find it, now but i linked the other day to that Einar Tangen(sp-2) interview with Pretrova, and ive seen several other people….most of whom ive never heard of(and also cant find the links, right now) who have been talking about how china is building some kind of twin Yuan…keeping capital controls internally, but building a lot of offshore exchanges and clearing houses and whatnot.
            i dont have the economics chops(nor the bandwidth and time) to get my head around what all these folks are talking about…but each time i come across it, i think of you, educating us about this very thing.
            from what i gather, they are rolling out a parallel system, internal and external, to overcome..rather, avoid… the trap the us found itself in by being the world currency.
            like i said, ive seen this stuff accidentally, in the last 2 weeks or so…but its way above my paygrade, as it were.
            i just think it would be neat if they had found a method.
            I’d bet Dr Hudson is aware of it if its real,lol.

            (and thanks, Yves, for all you do…as well as for tolerating all us disparate weirdos on here.)

            Reply ↓
            2. Steve H.

              Late note, from Links 7/9: Tooze:

              > Since 2015 Beijing has imposed tight capital controls that trap $50-60tn in Chinese bank accounts behind a financial firewall. Official reserve accumulation is one thing. A private capital exodus from Xi Jinping’s China would be quite another… perhaps it is also time to stop speaking of the dollar as a reserve currency, with all its time-honoured connotations of bank vaults, probity and solidity. America’s currency today is, above all, a promise of liquidity and a vehicle for outsized and unfettered capital accumulation

              Right there with you on ‘get my head around’. Something is happening and I don’t know what it is. But twisting the US while keeping its hands clean from powder burns fits with the cultural indirect approach that goes back thousands of years. At this moment the US economy/WallSt looks dominant but is fragile at the nodes. At such times, a single stone can flip the board.

              Reply ↓
    10. Tom Stone

      As Chris from GA noted yesterday these attacks by Trump are illegal, they violate the clear language of the War Powers Act.
      And every senior US Commander knows that by complying with Trump’s orders to attack Iran they have become War Criminals.
      Not that it matters beyond making clear the degree of corruption involved…
      There is the small matter of Morale among the troops who now know that their “Leaders” have put their Jawbs ahead of their Solemn Oath to defend the Constitution against “All enemies Foreign and Domestic.”
      I’m sure there won’t be any long term consequences for the US Military from this…

      Reply ↓
      1. Oregon Lawhobbit

        And every senior US Commander knows that by complying with Trump’s orders to attack Iran they have become War Criminals.

        I am sure that the War Police will be around any time now to arrest them and have them prosecuted. ;-)

        War crimes are only committed by losers and the occasional bone tossed out to make things look copacetic for the groundlings. I just don’t see Nuremburg II happening any time soon.

        Heck, MAYBE we can see some impeachment/conviction action after the midterms, though even that is iffy considering that the actions were taken on behalf and behest of Israel. Though maybe a lack of success on DJT’s part might just cause Israel to decide it needs to make an example….

        Reply ↓
    11. ilsm

      ADS-B Now, one KC 46 and one KC 135. Tracks across UAE and into Gulf of Oman.

      Civil traffic is in the area, requiring refueler report position, to keep their “space”.

      Look like KC 135 out of al Udeid, Qatar.

      P-8 last night reported position, possibly to gain “clearance” into Saudi airfield.

      Reply ↓
    12. motorslug

      Trump is better than anyone in recent memory of proving a very effective interpretation trick when reading USG pronouncements: reverse the subjects and all becomes crystal clear, or obvious projection.
      re: bullets points at top

      We hit them very hard last night.
      They told us that every time we hit, you hit, and, of course, we’re dirty players, so we go after everyone, probably including their leader.
      They don’t like us. They don’t like me. We’re evil people, and it’s the denuclearisation of Iran. And we’re going to denuke it.
      I’m not happy with NATO because of the fact that they didn’t want to help them with the number one state-sponsored terror, that’s us.

      Reply ↓
      1. Samuel Conner

        Robert Barnes calls this “confession through projection.” I suspect that something similar is going on with Western reports (based on Ukrainian reports) of casualty levels in the SMO.

        Reply ↓
        1. .Tom

          It’s going on all the time everywhere. My wife and I have a laugh at each instance as it happens. Just over lunch right now. “Iran is the world’s biggest sponsor of international terrorism.” And the BBC saying instead of simply “Hamas” repeatedly using “the Hamas terrorist organization.”

          Reply ↓
    13. Mikel

      “The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) says it struck 85 US military targets in Bahrain and Kuwait with missiles and drones in an initial response to to American aggression against Iranian territory.”

      Previous YouTube reports would leave the impression that those bases were already destroyed and rendered ineffective….
      Oh, well…

      Meanwhile, Israel has also been hitting Lebanon all this past week.

      Reply ↓
      1. Ghost in the Machine

        And Israel once again escapes any retaliation despite all its MOU violating activities and being the prime reason for this war or from the other point of view the US empire’s primary vector of force projection in west Asia. Either way it is odd how lightly they get off in each one of these flair ups. I feel we are missing something important. It seems Iran really is very afraid of Israel (maybe threat of nukes) or is getting very heavy pressure from allies like Russia and China to behave in certain ways. Iran’s letting up of the straight weapon in the MOU at this juncture seemed odd to me. It makes me think the economic situation in Iran and/or China is much more dire than it seems.

        Reply ↓
        1. jonboinAR

          It seems Iran really is very afraid of Israel (maybe threat of nukes)

          Bingo!, as it seems to me. That’s why I maintain that in as much as any sincere, principled refusal by Iran to pursue a nuclear weapon is deeply admirable, in any short, medium or medium-long term sense (Do I make sense?), such a choice strategically sets them back vis a vis the US and Israel.

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        2. The Rev Kev

          It might be that Iran is relying on the oil cliff to eventually make Trump yank Israel’s leash instead of having a exchange of fire which would mean the death of many of their people as well as the destruction of much of their infrastructure.

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        4. Polar Socialist

          During the “war” Iran did fire 37% of it’s missiles against Israel, and we’re still learning of the extent of the destruction bit by bit, so I wouldn’t say Iran is afraid of Israel.

          What I think is that Iran has (correctly) identified the US being both the “center of gravity” and the “strategic depth” of Israel. The main strategy should thus aim to make US withdraw from the region and cut the umbilical cord. Israel will be mostly neutered and forced to seek peace if not backed up by USA.

          One (extremely cynical) aspect is to give Israel enough atrocities and genocide to hang itself. And so far Israel is abiding. This, of course, assumes that there is a limit on what Israel’s supporters can stomach.

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          2. Mikel

            We’ve been told over and over about that strategy.

            “One (extremely cynical) aspect is to give Israel enough atrocities and genocide to hang itself. ”
            Unfortunately, this is world of countries, still intact, built on genocides. It hasn’t stopped many other countries from trading and interacting with them for centuries.
            That’s could be the opponent’s cynical take.

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          3. Clueless Joe

            “One (extremely cynical) aspect is to give Israel enough atrocities and genocide to hang itself. And so far Israel is abiding. This, of course, assumes that there is a limit on what Israel’s supporters can stomach.”
            I don’t think the aim is for hardcore Israel supporters to have second thoughts. They won’t.
            I think the goal is actually to push more and more people outside that circlejerk to assume that Israel will fully deserve whatever harsh and violent punishment it will eventually meet. To put it simply, before 2023, most people on the planet (as well as governments) would have been upset if the country were ever to be fully wiped out; that share of potentially upset people is diminishing pretty much with every passing month.
            Israeli current leadership is completely brainded because they don’t realize their country isn’t just bleeding support, it’s pretty much bleeding tolerance of it’s current form of being, which is far more dangerous in the long run.
            But then, so are the USA – Trump being a major acceleration to this global process.

            Reply ↓
            1. Mikel

              The world needs a long break from the mass wipe outs to know what it’s like to exist without them.

              Reply ↓
              1. .Tom

                Yes, it does.

                But let’s not forget that Israel is merely America’s ambitious little protégé (and excuse) in racist rampage and mass murder. Add up the deaths from America’s wars since only 2002 and its score is many times higher. Israel is quite good at racial extermination for a small country but the aren’t the only player in mass violence.

                So even if Israel as a political entity goes away there’s still Western Civilization. It’s big and it’s got an impressive résumé.

                I just listened again to Bill Hicks on Gulf War 1 just days after Bush was voted out in 1992. Amazing how little has changed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YlyY1pcvQQ NSFW

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        5. tet vet

          Bombing GCC countries who assist the US opens the possibility that the GCC countries will understand that they only have to stop assisting and there will be no more bombing. That is potentially an achievable goal. Bombing Israel will never break the US ties and would only risk the US joining the war at a larger scale. IOW, there is nothing to gain so why waste valuable weapons just now. It is the GCC countries who are the key. They need the status quo because their countries are controlled by rich elites who are convinced that they will continue to exploit their populations and are hesitant to change the existing set up. I think Iran knows what everyone tries to ignore. As long as the US is in the neighborhood, everyone other than the GCC chosen few and Israel are in peril.

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          1. Mikel

            Some of the GCC countries are on various Greater Israel maps.

            “Bombing Israel will never break the US ties and would only risk the US joining the war at a larger scale.”
            I think they are already in it at the larger scale. For crying out loud, some are trying to pass legislation to join the two armed forces more at the hip.

            Reply ↓
          2. Mikel

            As stated in the article above:
            “But the Gulf States are not on board with the Iran plan to control Strait of Hormuz traffic, as shown by their statement after a meeting with Marco Rubio. As much as they are furious with the US, they do not want to become captives to Iran.”

            Reply ↓
          3. Laughingsong

            Totally agree with “It is the GCC countries who are the key. They need the status quo because their countries are controlled by rich elites who are convinced that they will continue to exploit their populations and are hesitant to change the existing set up.”

            It is evident that, at least so far, GCC countries refuse to get Iran’s memo in this regard. To wit:

            “. . . Gargash said the reported attacks on Saudi and Qatari commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, together with the repeated acts of aggression against Bahrain and Kuwait, were “a clear indication that Tehran is incapable of adhering to the requirements of de-escalation and turning the page on war.”

            BTW, is anyone else tired of announcements like this, that ONLY mention Iran as if it’s the only entity dropping bombs? It always makes it sound like these attacks are random and (ugh, how I hate this word now) unprovoked. 🙄

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        6. Travis Bickle

          This post and the various comments all seem on-point.

          Maybe I’m giving Iran too much credit, but it seems they are trying to find the balance of conflict necessary to drive a wedge between Israel and The World (specifically, the US).

          If Iran caves they lose, but if they push too hard, and threaten to come out of the current conflict more powerful, that Israel could conceivably nuke them preemptively?

          Reply ↓
          1. JonnyJames

            Much speculation about nukes being used lately. But if nuclear weapons were used on Iran in any significant way, how would radiation and fallout affect the neighboring GCC countries, Iraq, and even Israel itself? Given the geographic proximity, Pakistan would not be pleased, and they also have nuclear weapons. Also if radiation levels were high, or fallout present, it would not be attractive for shipping in the region either.

            Reply ↓
            1. Travis Bickle

              If the prevailing winds are generally W>E, then Pakistan and India have the most to be worried about. But it’s the broken tabu, with those two at some level aching to lob one of their own phallic metaphors at the other. It’s all just so terrible dangerous, emotionalism re nukes aside.

              I stand to be corrected, but I do believe over the years the thinking/theory about deploying tactical nukes has evolved greatly, along with the weapons. Individual bombs can now be quickly and easily dialed down to deliver quite low yields, say to destroy an armored column. Not a lot different than a MOAB, and far easier to actually use if not for that pesky radiation. However, I do believe an air-burst will destroy armored vehicles (or kill their crews), kicking up little to no radiation. Back in the eighties I remember Reagan/Haig trying to sell this as a Neutron bomb, but they may have been just workshopping its marketing.

              And then there is the sheer drama of setting one off as the mother of all threat displays, as people thought Putin might do (harmlessly?) with one over the Black Sea. But, that would totally destroy the US and Israel’s credibility, such as it is, and it’d be especially rich given their premise for starting this war.

              The real point is that there’s just no telling what might happen given the stakes. Israel does have hundreds of these things, and there have got to be people with influence there dying to assert themselves with one. Kindof a “we’re serious and don’t screw around with our right to defend ourselves, whatever that may mean” sort of statement.

              Compared to those yahoos, maybe we should be thankful Bibi is at the helm?

              Reply ↓
              1. Acacia

                I thought the issue with tactical nukes was not so much containing the radiation but that they take the conflict up the escalation ladder into extremely uncertain, i.e., possible world war, territory.

                Then again, if we follow Emmanuel Todd, WW III has already begun.

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    14. JW

      Trump is trying to get Erdogan and Jolani to attack Hezbollah – which is why Israel now seems to be more ameliorative to the F53 deal, now that Rubio has stitched up a deal with the Lebanese PM that allows Israel to stay south of the Litani river and (with the help of the weak Lebanese army) root out Hezbollah. If Erdogan/Jolani do move against Lebanon then the Iraqi Shia have said they will attack Syria (according to long-time Syrian commentator Vanessa Beeley). The big story is still Ukraine. The more the US is tied up in the Gulf, the more Ukraine wilts. The more the US is drawn into a ground war, the more paralysed they will become. The big change in the perception of the world is this: nobody sees the US as ‘the good guy’ anymore. Not even its own people. Best advice to Iran – attack, attack, attack.

      Reply ↓
      1. Yves Smith Post author

        Jolani is not dumb and has made clear he will not attack Hezbollah.

        Erdogan is even smarter and has no reason to take this risk or help Israel, which has officially put Turkiye on the menu after Iran.

        And the Lebanese army will not root out Hezbollah either. It’s not a matter of “weak”. Half are Shia and will never attack Hezbollah.

        Reply ↓
        1. JonnyJames

          But how hard is he willing to bite the hands that feed him? He will not attack or challenge the Israelis occupying parts of Syria, he will not challenge US/Isr interests. “Jolani” appears to only attack enemies of the empire. He’s an asset at the end of the day.

          Reply ↓
          1. Polar Socialist

            AFAIK, Jolani is in power because the tribal elders deem him to be a slightly better option to a civil war. His rule is legitimized by more stability and peace than before his rule, so he really can’t afford to have an armed conflict with anyone at the moment.

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              1. Polar Socialist

                We don’t think, we know he spend years talking to and showing respect to the sheikhs all over Syria (but mostly in the north and mid Syria).

                Why do you think the Syrian Arab Army all of a sudden laid down it’s arms and just walked away? It’s almost as if they were told to stop fighting for Assad family, and it sure wasn’t Assad family who told them that.

                He obviously has support from US and Turkiyet, but in the end it is the Syrians who allow him to rule. For now.

                He’s also playing very nice with the Russians, is that in the US/Isr interest? Or maybe he was actually installed by Russians? I mean, they did take care of the previous strongman, didn’t they.

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              2. urdsama

                Double huh?? Ask Jamal Khashoggi’s relatives how they feel about the current leader of Saudi Arabia.

                How do you think the various countries the US supports got their current leaders? Few of them are saintly figures, or even close. The more brutal, the better as far as the US is concerned.

                And you don’t think there were more vicious choices than Jolani?

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              1. JonnyJames

                Yes, I remember seeing that disgusting video. And the emperor praises him, gave him some of his cologne. Can’t make this stuff up.

                Reply ↓
      3. Acacia

        I read that Erdogan stated at the NATO summit that Turkiye supports Ukraine’s “urgent needs,” including military aid.

        Meanwhile, the Ukrainians have been attacking the Blue Stream pipeline to Turkey this week:

        https://tass.com/politics/2157609

        Gratitude, Ukrainian style ?

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    15. JonnyJames

      The emperor is already trying to BS the oil price. And says Israel likely to leave Lebanon: “I think they are going to. I think they want to,”
      (from AJ live feed 14.44 GMT)

      If Laith Marouf and others are correct, Israel will leave because they are suffering unsustainable casualties, tank losses etc. Sounds familiar.

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    16. KD

      Yesterday was a big day for China.

      First, they tested long range ballistic missile launch from their nuclear subs. This is important because subs are used to insure MAD against a nuclear first strike, and important for nuclear deterrence:

      https://apnews.com/article/china-missile-test-submarine-36963889390c8a08079165d8a63e4960

      Also, China yesterday completely lifted the export ban on distillates for July (having already raised it), which should bring the teapot refineries back on the crude market:

      https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-further-eases-fuel-export-curbs-july-sources-say-2026-07-08/

      Speculation on my part, but I wonder if Trump had some kind of deal with Xi on Chinese crude imports to buy time to get some kind of deal in place, and now between Israel and the US mucking it up, the Chinese have lost patience.

      Reply ↓
      1. Hickory

        I read the Chinese export change as positive for the US, increasing gas and distillate (incl diesel) export availability, pushing off or blunting any energy cliff. The worry about this was a major reason for Trump folding to Iran.

        Reply ↓
        1. KD

          Positive for distillate. Likely to lower crude demand in US if domestic refiners face price competition from Chinese refiners. But China took 6 million barrels a day crude demand out of the global market, which if it comes back, even with the SPR, crude market can’t accommodate. So gas etc. go down, then there is a whip saw as crude goes up and gets passed down the refining chain.

          It is possible given China has 1.5 billion barrels in reserve (estimate) that the US and China could change places, US ban exports, shut in domestic refiners, conserves what remains in SPR and China uses their reserves to export distillates worldwide. It could keep the world from going over a cliff while the war rages. Not so sure what the quid for China would be in this scenario though.

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    17. Anonymous

      Posting this comment so I can reference it in future threads after this all blows over once again and the dooomers go back to whining about futures manipulation.

      Reply ↓
      3. JonnyJames

        Yeah, because we love institutional corruption, market manipulation, financial crimes, and fraud. It’s part of “Western” culture. Pointing this out is merely “whining”. No wonder…

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        1. In Cold Chud

          Don’t forget how growth forever–which is, by definition, true–requires a limitless supply of ever-cheaper-per-unit energy, which therefore must also be true.

          Either that or “something, something, decoupling,” or, “something, something, Dyson sphere.”

          Or maybe go old school, with the Soviet (!) abiotic oil hypothesis, later revived by the great Jerome Corsi.

          But it seems like the plan is to just burn it all for Little Debbies and AI girlfriends.

          Reply ↓
      5. KD

        But here is the thing:

        https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Big-Oils-Windfall-Earnings-Threaten-to-Reignite-Trumps-Price-Gouging-Push.html

        On paper, refiners have record crack spreads if you go off paper oil futures, so “evil price gougers” but if the Trump Administration is manipulating the price of paper oil futures to keep them artificially low and using this to scapegoat refiners for high gas prices, in order to divert the blame from an illegal war of aggression which turns out to be a massive strategic blunder as well, well, pure banana republic politics.

        Not an expert but refined oil products are a commodity traded in a competitive international market so not exactly easy to “price gouge” in contrast to say the market for operating systems or defense contracting.

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    18. Anthony Martin

      Hmm. The US conundrum. What does the availability of oil have to do with the cost of yen in Japan?

      Reply ↓
      1. Acacia

        Somebody who understands this better can weigh in, but …

        First, 80% to 90% of total crude oil imports to Japan have been passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

        PM Takaichi and her spin control team have been trying to silence any domestic voices speaking out about the oil cliff or negative effects on the Japanese economy due to her intransigence w.r.t. Iran (Tokyo has taken the position that the govt bears no responsibility to negotiate with Iran, ergo Japanese industry is on its own). Here, parenthetically, bear in mind that over 70% of all take-down requests to Xitter reportedly come from the Japanese govt.

        The yen has been sliding — UJ at 163 is coming into view — and the BoJ bazooka has been silent. Formerly, the BoJ defended UJ at 160, but they already blew a yuge amount of their USD reserves trying to prop up the yen, and it didn’t work. BoJ bazooka thus appears to be under orders to stand down as the yen weakens.

        Finally, as you know, bond yields have been surging, which means buyers are not materializing as before. In normal times higher yields would strengthen the currency, but that doesn’t seem to be happening now, which I assume means the long-term outlook appears especially dire to foreign investors and they are thus looking elsewhere.

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    19. ilsm

      8 July release of EIA Petroleum Balance Sheet:  week ending 3 Jul.

      SPR draw:  -6.2 mbbl  now 319.5 mbbl down 20% year on year (-83.5 mbbl)

      Comm’l supply  +3 mbbl,   down 3.4% y o y  (-14.7 mbbl)   now 411.4 mbbl

      Gasoline stock:   -7.6% y o y

      Diesel Stock:  +.8%   y o y

      Kerosene/Jet   +7.5% y o y (may be airline response to raised jet fuel prices, cancellations)

      Net Crude imports:   2.4 mbbl/day up from 1.3 last week report  (took some heat off crude draws) 

      Crude to refineries:  17 mbbl/day  steady recently, up near +.5 mbbl/day from year ago.

      Net imports all product and crude:  -5.1 (exported) mbbl a day year ago -4.2 mbbl a day  Exports up imports a bit down y o y.

      Increase crude imports may be fixing data issues from last week.

      Accuracy of inventory and flow data may be suspect, I do not know.  Surprises in supply chains are why human managers are needed.

      Reply ↓
    20. XXYY

      Türkiye is ready to provide necessary contributions to clear Strait of Hormuz of mines: –President Erdogan Anadolu English

      I don’t see the value of spending a lot of time and political capital clearing mines from the Strait.

      Not only is it difficult to know how many you’ve missed, but Iran can presumably emplace new mines in a few days whenever and wherever it wants.

      Reply ↓
        1. eg

          Precisely. I am fairly certain Macron (and possibly Starmer also) have already made similar useless gestures.

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    21. XXYY

      Real-time satellite data from MarineTraffic reveals a total collapse of the US-supervised southern transit corridor. Commercial tankers have entirely abandoned Omani lanes, forced to route exclusively through Iranian-controlled northern waters to guarantee transit. — Francesco Sassi

      To me, this seems like excellent news. I’m assuming there would be no problem in the Straits of Hormuz if every ship cooperated with Iran for its entry to and exit from the Persian Gulf. The amount spent on tolls would be virtually nothing compared to the expenses the war is bringing on.

      I realize there are going to be those whose sensibilities are offended by this arrangement. They have had their chance to try to beat Iran back on this issue. They lost.

      Remember, there was free navigation in the Straits until Trump for some reason (or no reason) felt the need to kick a hornet’s nest, including the senseless assassination of a foreign country’s leaders and the brutal murder (by incineration) of hundreds of pupils of a little girl’s school. He f*cked around, and now he is finding out. Any and all anger about the situation going forward should be directed at Trump and his master, Netanyahu.

      Reply ↓
      1. Mikel

        ” Any and all anger about the situation going forward should be directed at Trump and his master, Netanyahu.”

        It’s a mess decades in the making. Some of the tensions in the region are centuries old.
        It didn’t begin with them and won’t end with them.

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      2. hk

        I’m trying to get my head wrapped up around the sea lanes: so what’s up with the Omani side? Is it naturally difficult to transit to begin with? Is it mainly Iranians issuing warnings, with some drones mixed in having the effect?

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        1. Acacia

          That jibes with my understanding.

          When Oman first declared their non-support for Iran’s position, I believe there were some notes about the Omani side of the SOH actually being deeper, so that is not an issue.

          IIRC, last week there was an “unidentified” attack on a cargo ship just outside the strait on the Omani side, but many observers (including the NYT) guessed it was Iran. Since then, Iran started issuing warnings.

          As you know, meanwhile, Iran has been in a period of national mourning, which might explain their reduced activity, though at present the MoU seems dead and the shooting has resumed.

          I basically agree with XXYY’s take, above, though I’m wondering what Trump is going to do now. He already warned us several weeks ago that the SPR was going to hit tank bottom, and it’s unclear to me why he would think the situation is any different now.

          It could simply be dementia, i.e., that Trump doesn’t remember anything he thought a few weeks ago let alone yesterday. Or maybe they looked under the proverbial sofa cushions, found another ~ 30 mbbls, and opted to kick the can a couple more weeks?

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    22. XXYY

      The bigger impediment is the Trump team lacks the competence, the support and the tenacity to do anything hard.

      Although this sounds flip, it’s actually a very penetrating and profound take. I don’t think it’s just Trump and his people, though he is certainly the tip of a very bad, downward-pointing spear.

      I believe the World War II era (for whatever reason) was probably the pinnacle of US managerial competence. At the time, the US government and its staff seemed fearless when it came to taking on large and unprecedented projects that required skill and intelligence. The industrial buildup for the war, the interstate highway system, NASA and the lunar landing, inventions in the aerospace and scientific fields, the UN, and a whole slew of major, daunting efforts that I am certainly forgetting. The US then was much like China is now, transforming itself at a breakneck pace under the control of people who had courage and intelligence and were motivated by the greater good (and who only had pencils and slide rules to work with!).

      I prefer to think this decline is a temporary situation with respect to the US. I sure hope so.

      Reply ↓
      2. ChrisFromGA

        Comparing the slap-dash effort of Trump with even GW Bush’s war on Iraq in 2003, Bush the Younger looks like Eisenhower or Truman.

        Feb 28th: Launches war with no Congressional backing, no NATO support. Claims it will be over by Sunday night in time for the futures to open. Maximalist goals include regime change, complete de-nuclearization of Iran, and limits on their ballistic missile program.

        Early March: Now says war over in 4-6 weeks. Axios fake news weaponized to manipulate crude oil futures.

        April: War continues.Attacks NATO allies for not providing support. Makes up stories about Kurds possibly doing a ground war.

        May: No more regime change on the menu. Now the goals are reduced to restoring the status quo ante Feb 28, and getting Iran to give up “nucular dust”.

        June: Bogus MoU signed.

        July: Bogus MoU RIP. War is back. Trump now begs Jolani to bail him out in Lebanon.

        The picture we get is of an incompetent with no plan, no exit strategy, and no discipline.

        Reply ↓
        1. Mikel

          People that care about other people have goal posts that include things like exit strategies that minimize loss of life.
          These are scoundrels playing with different goal posts in mind. They may be playing on an entirely different field than the one others want to play on.

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      3. Lefty Godot

        Bretton Woods was a managerial class achievement also. The 1930s and 1940s were when we had the first organized movement calling for Technocracy, and it was because there were enough competent people in big business and government that it seemed like a viable (if not very popular) positions to take. Roosevelt and Eisenhower were clearly very competent top managers of government and Truman and Kennedy at least didn’t throw any major spanners in the works, but after that things slowly went downhill. The self-proclaimed technocrats now, and most of the current PMC, are incompetent egotists who have been presiding over a grand looting and downsizing of the economy bequeathed to them by those earlier managerial types. They are very good at jumping on fads, gambling mostly with other people’s money, selling off real assets for speculative instruments, and holding meetings with each other where they celebrate their own brilliance.

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        1. XXYY

          This analysis seems right on the money to me. Should be on a corroded brass plaque somewhere on the Washington Mall (maybe next to the reflecting pool).

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      4. John k

        Neo-economics from Chicago promoted fealty to quick profits and returns, slash research to plump up the bottom line and earn bonuses. China invests for the future, we don’t. Promotions are based on loyalty, not competence, so that’s what you get. Nothing is forever and imo were declining at an accelerated phase, but oligarchs are in control and it might again take luck and a depression to change this.

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    23. In Cold Chud

      Today’s Dialogue Works, with Larry Johnson:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjA5wIT9DZ8

      At about 27:50, Larry speculates that Trump’s most recent fit of pique may have been the result of significant damage to the Abraham Lincoln carrier group, in the Arabian Sea, by Iranian missiles (damage that was officially denied).

      It’s entirely possible that this happened, but I feel like his rage had been building since the flop of his July 4 festivities, which had been a real nothingburger, just totally humiliating, made unbearable by the contrast with the funeral for Khamenei.

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    24. The Heretic

      There is something I don’t understand about Iran’s attack strategy; over almost two months they pounded various US bases through out the middle east and after expending an enormous amount of ordinance, how is it that the bases closest to them can still host and launch aircraft? Although it does make sense to prioritize the radars and communications bases across the middle east (to facillitate Iran’s air strikes tactics at those bases and into Israel), I would have thought that Iran would also concentrate enough firepower on at least the nearest bases to destroy their ability to launch and support US operations, with the eventual goal of destroying of all the bases near Iran (save for Incrilik).

      The Shia originate from the noble conduct and self-sacrifice of Hussein, and of course they want to imitate him which is admirable; but this time, would it not be wise to win and emerge intact?

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      1. HH

        Runways are large area targets and craters can be rapidly repaired. Aircraft can be protected in shelters, and the fueling infrastructure can be under ground. With good reconnaissance and timing, aircraft can be spotted in the open and destroyed, but they are frequently relocated to avoid being targeted. What Iran accomplished was raising the risk level of using nearby airfields enough to cause the U.S. to pull back to more distant bases, increasing the cost and difficulty of launching strikes against Iran.

        I believe that Iran can fire missiles longer than the U.S. can sustain high-tempo operations, and it may decide to destroy critical regional infrastructure, including vital desalinization and power plants. Trump’s decision to restart the war makes no sense, but he doesn’t seem to be thinking straight, and nobody is willing to remove him from office.

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    25. n

      Its pretty hard to believe the US was hard up for targets on the very first day of the war when they bombed the Minab school.

      Reply ↓
    26. Tom Stone

      Donald Trump has been visibly deteriorating both Mentally and Physically for some time, this is not going to improve and his rage is likely to explode at some point in the near future.
      The target or targets of his rage are not predictable because he is not a rational actor.
      What is predictable is that his reaction will not be proportionate and is not likely to be rational, this is typical of those with age related dementia.
      It’s going to be a very lively Summer.

      Reply ↓
      1. Martin Oline

        He is deteriorating rapidly. I saw an unsubstantiated piece that reported he was being given an experimental weight loss drug. If that is the case it would be tragic if he had a stroke or heart attack and died suddenly. Tragic in the fact he wouldn’t have time to pardon all his cronies.

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    27. johnnyme

      Iran warns US Gulf allies to ‘watch their oil wells’ amid tensions

      Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of Iran’s Parliament, warned Gulf states aligned with US President Donald Trump against involvement in any confrontation between Iran and Washington.

      “The Gulf states that stand with Trump in the confrontation between Iran and the American regime should watch over their oil and gas wells,” Rezaei wrote on X, adding that Iran has “no red lines when it comes to defending the security of the great Iranian people.”

      Elsewhere, he also said Iran still has many options it did not use even during the 40-day war.

      Rezaei asserted that if the United States launches a full-scale attack on Iran, Tehran could withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and would also consider changing its nuclear doctrine if it perceives an existential threat.

      Reply ↓
      1. chris

        Breaking Points did a thorough set of media criticism today on their show regarding coverage of Graham Platner. The interesting point they ended with was this entire mess was caused by sloppy journalism. If the Times had done a better job two months ago with what they were given, then Ms. Raticoff would not have felt she had to come forward on her own. Also, this information could have been revealed before the primary. But Politico did such a poor job with the information they were given that it is obvious they were trying to accomplish a hit job. Now we’ll see Platner used to bludgeon other DSA type candidates this year.

        I’m not sure who wins the award for worst offender this year. Axios is in the running but there are so many failures to consider.

        Reply ↓
        1. ChrisFromGA

          Trying to stay positive, I was listening to CNN on the radio last night and Abby Philip and another CNN on-air talent showed some signs of life. There were two guests on, and they were discussing the latest breakdown of the MoU and resumption of war. One of the guests sounded like either a Trump admin flack or maybe a pro-Israel military type. He was trying to claim that this was a “win” for the US, being that we can simply walk away from the MoU and periodically bomb Iran when they misbehave.

          The two CNN hosts were having none of that. They pretty much shut that guy down.

          There was another guest who was better. He pointed out that Vance was out of his depth and possibly got snookered by the Iranian diplomats.

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    29. Acacia

      Looks like the kinetic war has started to heat up again. Quite a few vids appearing on Telegram.

      Iranian missiles hitting Kuwait and Bahrain, apparently, and now there are reports of sirens at Muwaffaq Salti Airbase, eastern Jordan.

      The IRGC warns that every missile used against Iran will receive two in return.

      CL1! crude futures are up 10% on the weekly, with lots of volatility atm.

      Reply ↓

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