Author Archives: Yves Smith

An Overlooked Currency War in Europe

Yves here. One of the not-suffiently-discussed topics in the financial media is the tug of war over currency values, with the need to do post crisis damage control as the cover. For instance, after the initial round of QE, Brazil and India complained vociferously about the dual impact of a weaker dollar and higher commodity prices (yes, Virginia, some economists do think financial speculation can influence commodity prices) on their economies. If Europe contracts while growth in the US and China are also decelerating, it isn’t hard to imagine that the currency front will heat up even more.

This piece by Daniel Gros illustrates, surprisingly, that one currency manipulator has managed to operate under the radar so far.

Links 10/11/12

IMF Suddenly Decides It Might be OK to Loosen Austerity Tourniquets Now that Gangrene is Setting In

While deathbed conversions might earn you a spot in heaven in some religions, they don’t carry you very far here on Planet Earth.

Christine Lagrade has taken too small a step in the right direction far too late to do much good.

More JP Morgan Whitewash

Via e-mail, some updates from Michael Crimmins, a bank compliance expert and member of Occupy the SEC, on the continuing failure of the media to portray the real significance of the JP Morgan London Whale losses: that it revealed glaring deficiencies in internal controls that warrant prosecution of Jamie Dimon under Sarbanes Oxley.

Pimco’s El-Erian Warns of Central Bank Put Bubble

Earlier today, El-Erian in the Financial Times released a short and apt note on the limits of the central bank put.

Can We Get Australian PM Julia Gillard to Give Debate Lessons in America?

Reader YY forwarded a fiery speech by Julia Gilliard, the Australian Prime Minister, attacking opposition leader Tony Abbot for his hypocrisy in attacking a member of her party over sexist text messages.

I’m featuring what might seem to be a topic of narrow interest as an object lesson in political discourse and skill levels overseas versus in the US.

Links 10/10/12

Richard Alford: Monetary Policy, Household Balance Sheets, and Recoveries from Financial Crises

By Richard Alford, a former New York Fed economist. Since then, he has worked in the financial industry as a trading floor economist and strategist on both the sell side and the buy side.

Five years after the financial crisis and halfway to a lost decade, economists, policymakers and the public are looking for answers that will restore economic health and vibrancy. Their concern has increased recently with the approaching “fiscal cliff” and the possibility of a double-dip recession. To find remedies, they’ve examined past financial crises that were followed by protracted economic downturns. In the US, the precedent studied and cited most frequently has been the Great Depression of the 1930s, including the double dip of 1938. Unfortunately, economists have produced a variety of inconsistent explanations for both the initial contraction and the prolonged period without a self-sustained recovery.

Links 10/9/12

Mirabile Dictu! The Media Notices the Sucking Sound of Growth (What Little There Was) Leaving the Economy and Underplays IMF Malpractice

Starting late last week, there’s been a marked shift in the mix of headlines in the major media outlets. While it may simply be post fall equinox moodiness or a confluence of downer reports leading to a rare moment of sobriety, suddenly the big venues are concerned about the economic outlook.

Even Schneiderman’s Staff Shows Doubts by Voting with Their Feet

Last week, we saw a host of commentators rush to defend the mini October surprise of a sign of life from the heretofore moribund Mortgage Task Force, in the form of a filing by Eric Schneiderman against JP Morgan for fraud charges under New York’s Martin Act, even though we and others took a dim view of the suit. And even though a bit more information has come out, it doesn’t change our view that this and parallel cases (which the Mortgage Task Force has said it will launch) will be settled quietly, well after the election, perhaps even after Schneiderman’s current term expires, for comparatively little.

Wolf Richter: Punishment of the Spanish Political Class by the People

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has a singular problem: 84% of all voters have “little” or “no” confidence in him. The fate of Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba, leader of the opposition Socialist party, is even worse: 90% of all voters distrust him! Those are the two top political figures of the two major political parties, and the utterly frustrated and disillusioned Spaniards are defenestrating them both.