Category Archives: Banking industry

Connecting the Dots Between China’s Falling Consumption Level and Its Banking Crisis

One of the striking features of China’s continuing growth as an economic power is its extreme (as in unprecedented in the modern era) dependence on exports and investments as drivers of growth. Even more troubling is that as expansion continues, consumption keeps falling as a percentage of GDP.

As countries become more affluent, consumption tends to rise in relationship to GDP. And the ample evidence of colossally unproductive infrastructure projects in China (grossly underoccupied malls, office and residential buildings, even cities) raises further doubts about the sustainability of the Chinese economic model.

The post crisis loan growth in China, in tandem with visible signs that a meaningful proportion of it has little future economic value, has stoked worries that Chinese banks will soon be struggling with non-performing loans. China bulls scoff at this view, contending that China’s 2002-2004 episode of non-performing loans was cleaned up with little fuss (I never bought that story and recall how Ernst and Young was basically bullied by the Chinese government into withdrawing a 2006 report that NPLs at Chinese banks were a stunning 46% of total assets of its four largest banks. Note estimates of the NPLs as a percent of total loans from that crisis vary widely, even excluding Ernst, from 20% to 40%).

The latest post by Michael Pettis links the two phenomena, the fall in Chinese consumption and the cleanup of its last banking crisis. If his analysis is correct, this bodes ill for any correction in global imbalances.

Lender Processing Services Has Yet Another Bad Day in Court

In October, Lender Processing Servicer was targeted in two lawsuits, one filed in Federal bankruptcy court, both alleging illegal sharing of legal fees. The Federal suit sought class action status and was joined shortly thereafter by the Chapter 13 bankruptcy trustee for Northern Mississippi on behalf of herself and all other US Chapter 13 bankruptcy trustees as a class.

Lender Processing Services dismissed the suit as a “fishing expedition“. Funny, it appears the judge does not agree. I hope to get a transcript of the hearing on Friday, since he authorized the case against both firms moving into discovery and from what I understand, not on a very narrow basis as both defendants had sought.

If successful, this litigation would do tremendous damage to LPS.

Mass Supreme Court to Consider Whether Buyers Out of Faulty Foreclosures Actually Own Property

Oh boy, if you think the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court decision on Ibanez, which raised serious questions about the validity of transfers in mortgage securitizations, turned heads in the banking industry, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. The SJC is considering what has the potential to be another widely-watched case, Bevilacqua v. Rodriguez. Note this case […]

Matt Stoller: The Real China Problem Runs Through JPM and Goldman

By Matt Stoller, the former Senior Policy Advisor for Rep. Alan Grayson. His Twitter feed is @matthewstoller

The Federal Open Market Committee releases its transcripts on a five year time lag. Last week, we learned what they were saying in 2005. Dylan Ratigan blogged an interesting catch: Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher expressed his frustration about Chinese imports. Not, of course, that there were too many imports, but that our ports weren’t big enough to allow all the outsourcing American CEOs wanted.

Fisher is just the latest Fed official to applaud this trend. Here’s the backstory. In the 1970s, there was a lot of inflation. The oligarchs of the time didn’t like this, because it made their portfolios worth less money. So they decided they would clamp down on inflation by no longer allowing wage increases. To get the goods they needed without a high wage work force, they would ship in everything they needed from East Asia and Mexico. The strategy worked. Inflation collapsed. Wages stopped going up. There were no more strikes. Unemployment jumped….But basically this was a way of ensuring that banks and creditors could make a lot of money that would instead go to workers.

Bank Board Member Proposes Legislation in Virginia to Change UCC to Help Banks Escape Foreclosure Woes

Earlier this week, we discussed how several measures proposed in Virginia would have the effect of redressing the power imbalance between banks and borrowers in the foreclosure process. One would give borrowers more time to mount defensed (Virginia has one of the fastest track processes in the US); another would require judicial approval for a foreclosure to become final. But the farthest-reaching proposal would force banks to maintain accurate property records in local government offices, which would end the use of MERS in that state.

Not surprisingly, the industry is not about to let this go down without a fight.

More Evidence of Undercapitalization/Insolvency of Major Banks

Even as we and other commentators have noted the underlying weakness of major bank balance sheets, which have been propped up by asset-price-flattering super low interest rates and regulatory forbearance, we still witness the unseemly spectacle of major banks keen to leverage up again. The current ruse is raising dividends to shareholders, a move the Fed seems likely to approve. Anat Admati reminded us in the Financial Times on Wednesday that we are about to repeat the mistakes of the crisis:

To Bailout or Not to Bailout: Mortgage Mess Endgames Emerging

In the last week, several ideas for fixing the housing market have surfaced. One is the Third Way proposal, which appears to be an Administration trial balloon. Predictably, it is yet anther bailout, with plenty of smoke and mirrors to disguise that fact.

A second proposal, from Sheila Bair yesterday, is to establish a “foreclosure claims commission“. This scheme sounds more promising that the Third Way proposal, but is very likely to wind up in bailout territory.

Third is a not-widely-covered plan by Senator Jeff Merkley.

The Merkley proposal is pro consumer and pro investor; the other two are pro bank. Sadly, it isn’t hard to see which is likely to prevail in the absence of public pressure.

Banks Halting Foreclosures in Parts of Florida

This is starting to get interesting. Having achieved the creation of special courts to whittle down a backlog of foreclosures, called the “rocket docket” due to the propensity of many of its judges to operate on an accelerated timetable that too often led to a refusal to hear borrower objections and evidence, servicers are now withdrawing foreclosure cases in Southwest Florida en masse.

It is not yet clear whether these cases are being abandoned or whether the banks will refile once they find a way to argue their action is valid. However, reading between the lines, one has to question whether they will succeed.

The Goldman Uncertainty Principle of Securities Regulation

I wish I had bandwidth to cover the Goldman-Facebook egg-on-its-face fiasco long form, but since other able writers are all over this story, I suspect NC readers will not find coverage wanting.

However, I could not let this remark pass without comment. From the Wall Street Journal:

Past Rulings by New York Judge Schack Reached Ibanez-Like Conclusions

Judge Arthur Schack might be the American Securitization Forum’s worst nightmare if more people started paying attention to his rulings. The Brooklyn judge has gotten a lot of media coverage for his lack of patience with “dog ate my homework” excuses from bank plaintiffs in foreclosure cases, as manifested by how often he has dismissed cases with prejudice (meaning those parties cannot return to court on the same matter).

But Schack is treated as a curiosity, a maverick. His colorful, rambling decisions reinforce that perception, which is useful from the banks’ perspective: he can be depicted as an outlier rather than as someone who has looked hard at securitization practices and does not like what he sees.

Pending Legislation in VA Would Give End Use of MERS, Give Borrowers More Foreclosure Defenses

The securitization industry may be about to reap the whirlwind of its failure to take the need for reform seriously. As we’ve indicated, industry incumbents have adopted a denialist approach to widespread evidence of serious documentation problems and procedural abuses, and have fought reasonable, pro investor proposals tooth and nail.

The Washington Post reports on several pending legislative proposals in the state of Virginia, all of which seek to level the power imbalance between the financial services industry and mortgage borrowers. The interesting thing about this pushback is that Virginia is not at all left leaning state. These measures instead appears to result from the fact that it has one of the fastest foreclosure processes in the US.

Is Incoming New York Attorney General Schneiderman Going to Be Too Soft on Bank Abuses?

An article in the Wall Street Journal says that the incoming New York state attorney general, Eric Schneiderman, is going to be nicer to Wall Street than his predecessors Eliot Spitzer and Andrew Cuomo. Given that Cuomo decided to take financial firm chicanery seriously only fairly late in his term of office, the Wall Street Journal assessment does not bode well for the prospect of tough enforcement.

The reason this matters is that the New York state AG has a particularly effective weapon, the Martin Act. One of the continuing frustrations I have as a writer and a citizen is the use of the word “fraud”. Activities that by any common-sense standard are fraudulent probably don’t meet the legal standard for fraud. In very crude terms, one of the hurdles that needs to be overcome is intent. If a perp can argue that he thought what he did was not improper (his attorneys or accountant blessed it, it never occurred to him it was an abuse, etc.) or he can claim it was a mistake, he can get off scot free. The very fact that Joe Cassano, the head of AIG’s Financial Products Group, has not been prosecuted serves as an illustration of difficulties involved.

Should We Believe Jamie Dimon’s Crocodile Tears Over How Much Mortgages Have Cost Banks?

Jamie Dimon told the press on Friday that the mortgage crisis has been costly (but not TOO costly) for JP Morgan. From MarketWatch (hat tip Lisa Epstein):

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said Friday that the foreclosure process is a “mess” that’s cost the financial-services giant a lot of money.

Dimon also said litigation over troubled mortgage securities is “going to be a long, ugly mess,” but won’t be “life-threatening” for J.P. Morgan….

More Reasons Why Banks Should Worry About Ibanez Decision

Banks and the securitization industry have been spinning the Ibanez decision as hard as they can, even going so far as to put forward Baghdad Bob style claims that the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court ruling said that mortgage assignment in blank worked, when a reading of the ruling show the polar opposite.

Georgetown law professor Adam Levitin has done a bit of digging to see if the securitization industry defenders’ claims, that most mortgages in RMBS meet the documentation standard set forth in Ibanez, actually holds up. He find that many deals fail to meet the decisions’ requirements: