Well, what we all suspected has now been made official. From the New York Times: Mr. Paulson and other senior advisers to Mr. Bush say the administration has responded well to the turmoil, demonstrating flexibility under difficult circumstances. “There is not any playbook,” Mr. Paulson said. Why am I not surprised to see that what […]
Read more...US economists have relentlessly harangued the Japanese for their supposed mismanagement of their post bubble era, which has lead to nearly 20 years of low growth, borderline deflation, with a not-much-discussed, robust export sector. Along with others, we complained in the early days of the Fed/Treasury emergency response that they were taking one of the […]
Read more...Banks are, if nothing else, entirely predictable. If there is a way to game the system, they will avail themselves of it. Readers may recall that the Financial Standards Accounting Board implemented Statement 157, which required financial firms to identify how they arrived at the “fair value” for their assets. Level 1 are ones where […]
Read more...The Wall Street Journal, in a typically anodyne bit of reporting, tells us that the Fed is considering selling its own debt to finance its balance sheet, Its good old buddy, the Treasury Department, which heretofore has been selling bills in part on behalf of the Fed, now has a big enough financing calendar in […]
Read more...The stock market is staging a very peppy rally on the hopes for the Obama infrastructure plan and the auto bailout, but key bits of news point to the stubbornness of some of the underlying economic stresses. We have long advocated mortgage modifications as a remedy that banks used fairly freely in the stone ages […]
Read more...You have to hand it to Paulson. The man is brazen. Now, admittedly, he has not asked Congress for the second half of the $700 bailout funds; the Wall Street Journal says merely that he is considering making a request. Now let us consider; 1. Paulson got the bill passed (remember the timing: it was […]
Read more...Sometimes guest blogger Lune sent us a piece on a post by Willem Buiter, “Stigma, Schmigma,” that I had included in Links last night. I had been tempted to comment on it, but events intervened, and Lune independently took up the mission. From Lune: Willem Buiter does a great takedown of the Fed’s policy of […]
Read more...To call Paulson response to the credit crisis improvised does a disservice to artists. Improvisation still requires a sense of direction and purpose, the thrust of a musical piece or the likely frictions between two characters. By contrast, the Treasury/Fed program looks completely reactive, an attempt to stabilize a system when they lack a good […]
Read more...Two of the most accurate forecasters of the credit crisis anticipate that economic conditions will deteriorate further. Nouriel Roubini, who has been consistently been on the dire end of the opinion spectrum, characterizes our current situation as stag-deflation. Meredith Whitney, who was the first banking analyst to call the crisis in financials, and has made […]
Read more...This ought to be a celebratory event, the scrutiny of a powerful player in the financial system who heretofore seemed immune to criticism. And what is interesting about the spotlight on Citigroup consigliere and board member Robert Rubin is that, unlike Greenspan, the reassessment is starting while he would still appear to have his hands […]
Read more...Willem Buiter is never one to mince words, and today his message is that the financial system is not operating: In a decentralised market economy, financial intermediation between economic agents with financial surpluses and those with financial deficits (or, more accurately, between economic agents who would like to run financial surpluses and those who would […]
Read more...The situation described in this Financial Times story is not earth shaking in dollar terms, but illustrates that corporate bankruptcies leave a trail of destruction in their wake. A number of funds were caught when Lehman failed, and the UK bankruptcy process may take a decade to resolve, leaving assets frozen in the meantime: Several […]
Read more...Gee,if you took it at face value, the FDIC’s report, which says that problem banks increased by 46%, reaching a level not seen since the mid-1990s, says things are not as bad as in the savings and loan crisis. But of course, we are seeing this deterioration despite the Fed and Treasury throwing money at […]
Read more...Let’s see, Bloomberg said yesterday that the Federal government had committed $7.4 trillion to lending facilities and guarantees. The total is now $8.2 trillion thanks to new programs announced today to aid borrowing by consumers, small businesses, and homeowners. Stocks have rallied, and the 30 year bond is also up three points, due to a […]
Read more...Remember how, post 9/11, President Bush urged patriotic Americans to go to the mall? It appears the officialdom is fond of time-tested remedies. Bloomberg tells us that the Fed and Treasury have a plan,, using TARP funds, to get consumers to spend again by supporting consumer lending. There are a few problems with this approach: […]
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