We expected economic conditions in China to deteriorate faster (at least for the next few months) than most had forecast, and that seems to be coming to pass. From Reuters: Chinese factories slashed output and workers at a record pace in December and manufacturing activity overall fell for a fifth month as the global financial […]
Read more...Since I am endeavoring to spend some time with my family, forgive me for dispatching this New York Times story, “Dollar Shift: Chinese Pockets Filled as Americans’ Emptied.” The article buys, hook, line and sinker, then- Fed-governor Ben Bernanke’s depiction of so-called global imbalances (the US borrowing from abroad to fund overconsumption; Japan, China, Taiwan, […]
Read more...I am now wondering if Google censors posts (I use Blogger), I put this post up at 1:33 AM, and even had a reader e-mail me that the post had disappeared (with no listing in “Recent Posts” which happens if I put up a post and then remove it). I have a record that it […]
Read more...One of the ugly features of the Great Depression that in many (but not all) cases worsened the severity of the contraction was that countries adopted “me first” policies with little regard to their broader ramifications. The poster child of this pattern is Smoot Hawley. Although there is some dispute among economists as to whether […]
Read more...Admittedly, China announced a raft of worst than expected economic data yesterday, even when analysts anticipated further weakening in November. So the comment by the head of China’s central bank, that further rate cuts may be coming sooner rather than later, would seem to be entirely predictable. But one has to wonder at the timing. […]
Read more...Although talk of deep OPEC production cuts and hopes for an auto industry rescue have given oil prices a boost, the fundamentals are far from out of the woods. Indeed, as OPEC bravely claimed demand and supply really weren’t so far out of whack (was that at effort to set the stage for a less-than-hoped […]
Read more...A comment in the Financial Times, “Prudent Asia is unlikely to bail out the west,” by David Piling, provides a badly needed reminder: societies watch out for themselves first. And the way they define their best interest may not correspond with what we think is good for them. Forgive us for repeating ourselves, but we […]
Read more...Further signs that the Chinese economy is in the throes of a serious downturn. From Bloomberg: China’s exports shrank last month and industrial-production growth cooled, Fan Gang, an adviser to the People’s Bank of China, said today. “Things are not so good,” Fan said at a forum in Beijing. “November figures will come out soon, […]
Read more...One thing I have found troubling is the near-unanimity in the US that we must Do Something about the burgeoning economic crisis, and that Something is big time monetary and fiscal stimulus. Near unanimity is almost never a good thing in the political and policy realm, since conditions and options are sufficiently complicated so as […]
Read more...As the US, as the biggest creditor and exporter in the late 1920s was hardest hit by the Great Depression, China now looks to be taking the global slowdown on the chin. And in a further sign of distress, the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of contracting prices for dry cargo shipping (and seen as […]
Read more...Even though the markets took cheer from China’s rate cut today, the move appears to be in response to an intensification of its economic woes. From Bloomberg: Some economic indicators in China showed a “faster decline” in November, the nation’s top economic planner said, underlining the urgency of government measures to support growth and employment. […]
Read more...Although the press has started paying attention to the slowdown in growth in China, the focus has mainly been on Pearl River area, which is light manufacturing, primarily textiles, low capital intensity. But as the New York Times reports, the contraction is also hitting sectors where China has made substantial capital investment. The reason this […]
Read more...Comparisons to the Great Depression and to other nasty past downturns (Panic of 1873, anyone?) are coming fast and furious these days. But one thing that continues to surprise me is the frequency with which the US in 2007-2008 is being compared to the US of 1929-1930. I’ve mentioned in passing that China is in […]
Read more...This story from the BBC covers largely familiar ground as far as the deterioration of the Chinese economy is concerned, but in contrast to some other articles featured here, stresses the political implications of lower growth. Note that while many in passing observe that lower economic growth could be destabilizing for China, it also appears […]
Read more...It’s always a bit dangerous to generalize from one data point, even if if it is a big data point, like Long Beach, one of America’s most active commercial ports. Nevertheless, the New York Times uses it to present a vivid image of the economic, and in particular, trade slowdown. One focus is how imported […]
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