As we have noted before, when oil prices are as low as they are now, OPEC members are in a classic prisoners’ dilemma. If they all adhere to production cuts, oil prices will be stronger as a result. But with governments badly dependent on oil revenues, the temptation to cheat is high. But if everyone […]
Read more...Even with strong signs that global economic weakness will persist through 2009, investors in energy share hope for an oil price rebound sooner rather than later, and energy stocks staged an even bigger move than the overall market in the last two rallies But the fixation on oil tends to obscure the prospects for the […]
Read more...I am not making this up, and this is NOT Iran, which has stored oil on tankers due to a lack of sufficient refining capacity for its heavy, nasty crude. Even though the long-term outlook for oil is for higher prices, holding oil already produced off the market is no panacea. But the intent is […]
Read more...Um, a bit late to come to that realization, don’tcha think? From Barron’s (hat tip reader Michael): That ‘’super spike” in oil prices that Goldman insisted would lift crude to $200 a barrel ….? ….It never really turned out to be that prescient: instead of the 50% jump in oil that Goldman anticipated back in […]
Read more...Some observers of the fall in US consumer spending have noted that despite the overall contraction, some merchants, such as Wal-Mart, are reporting solid sales gains. They infer that buyers are still spending, but have downtraded radically so as to reduce their total expenditures. While one needs to take care in generalizing from the US […]
Read more...Readers may know we have been concerned about the dramatic fall in shipments of basic materials, as reflected in the collapse of the Baltic Dry Index. This in turn, as we have also stressed, is in large measure to the difficulty of obtaining trade finance, in particular letters of credit. A very good post at […]
Read more...Famed hedge fund investor and round-the-world motorbiker Jim Rogers is not very keen about financial assets these days, which is not entirely surprising given that he runs a commodities fund. Maybe the bearish outlook has to do with the view of the world from Singapore. Marc Faber, who makes most of his TV appearances from […]
Read more...We had pointed out that usage of oil had dropped over 10% during the first oil shock. While the price hike itself led directly to conservation, and this time we have an easing price environment, global economic conditions were not as difficult as today’s. From Bloomberg: Crude oil fell below $59 a barrel in New […]
Read more...The dreary forecast comes from Eric Fishwick, chief economist at CLSA, an Asia-focused private equity firm. His reports in particular contends that the Chinese cannot possibly meet its growth projections for next year. One does not cross the officialdom in China casually. That suggests that either 1) CLSA is quite confident they won’t be making […]
Read more...Restricted credit and access to foreign exchange may lead farmers to cut production, worsening agricultural price pressures. From the Financial Times: The world might face a repeat of this year’s food crisis as the credit crunch encroaches on the agricultural market, leading farmers to cut their planting because of falling prices and lack of finance […]
Read more...We managed to miss this story on China’s diesel imports sent to us by reader Michael. When oil prices rose so rapidly early in the year, many pointed to robust growth in demand from China, and expected that level of growth to continue. Skeptics like your contrarian blogger pointed out other factors could be at […]
Read more...Note that Credit Suisse has lowered its price projections to $60 for 2009. The main reason for the lower price expectation is much worse than consensus forecasts for GDP growth, and with it, increases in oil and gas demand, from China. Click to enlarge (hat tip reader Michael):
Read more...Commodities had a nice day Wednesday, with oil in particular spiking up. Although the trigger appeared to be the Fed rate cut, one has to wonder at the seemingly disproportionate price reaction, particularly given deteriorating fundamentals and hence falling demand. One reason for the sudden enthusiasm for commodities is that, as in the frenzied days […]
Read more...One of our pet themes in recent weeks is that the fall in trade traffic, indicated and possibly overstated by a dramatic fall in the Baltic Dry Index, is due at least in part to difficulties in arranging and getting other banks to accept buyers’ letters of credit. For those new to this topic, international […]
Read more...Talk about getting creative to avoid use of the dollar (the iranians are particularly keen to avoid use of the dollar in oil trading, it verges on a point of honor with them. They have been selling oil to the Japanese with trades denominated in yen rather than the dollar as the reference currency for […]
Read more...