Every bull market has its Pets.com moment. The oil market’s may have just arrived. Is a market top is nigh? The newsletter Springwise, whose theme is “new business ideas for entrepreneurial minds” showcases MyGallons.com: Today’s high gas prices are already forcing changes in the way many consumers live, but it’s a pretty safe bet they […]
Read more...Oh dear. This move comes after oil was starting to retreat a tad and Iranian president Ahmadinejad (a figurehead, but one who gets treated seriously by the Western media) was sounding sensible and willing to negotiate. From Reuters: Iran has test fired nine long- and medium-range missiles, including one which it has previously said could […]
Read more...The oil bulls will take offense at Hussman’s contention that high oil prices will break, and probably break pretty seriously. Note we think high oil prices would be desirable if phased in over several years via a carbon tax to discourage use, but as everyone know from direct experience, a sharp runup is destabilizing, and […]
Read more...Only the Financial Times’ John Dizard would say straight out that monetary authorities (and diesel) constitute a bigger threat to our collective security than America’s pet nemesis, Iran. I would not be surprised to find some readers in agreement. Dizard dispatches Iran first. He starts with some colorful quotes, from Talleyrand (in French) and Lord […]
Read more...One of the polarized and emotionally charged debates these days (Cassandra compared it to Israel vs. Palestine) is whether the runup in oil prices is due to speculation or fundamental forces. And these extreme views tend to drown out notions that complex phenomena or conflating factors might be at work. One way to get to […]
Read more...The Guardian has a leaked copy of a World Bank study that finds biofuels to be the biggest culprit in global food price increases. This finding will not only feed calls to scrap biofuels (save perhaps those derived from sugar) but may lead to a recognition that resource challenges cannot be pursued in isolation. In […]
Read more...It’s gratifying when someone takes on a topic I had wanted to address and does a better job than I could have. Various readers have explained how prices are formed in oil markets, most importantly, how for the vast majority of oil sold, prices are specified in long-term supply contracts and the benchmark is not […]
Read more...Readers have taken to throwing brickbats when I post material that suggests that raising interest rates (at least in advanced economies) might not be a good move right now. We’ve said before that the reason the Fed kept rates too low too long was it looked at inflation as strictly a domestic phenomenon and ignored […]
Read more...Oil prices continue their seemingly relentless march upwards, breaching the $143 a barrel level Tuesday. Even the headlines are selling the bull’s case. Note that a Bloomberg’s story was titled, “Crude Oil Rises a Second Day as IEA Predicts `Tight’ Supplies Through 2013.” Yet what did the text say? The IEA said in a report […]
Read more...The old saying is that the cure for high prices is high prices. In the case of commodities, high prices reduce demand and also lead to efforts to expand supply. That has happened with wheat, which witnessed a sharp price decline today as it was revealed that US farmers had increased their wheat acreage. Experts […]
Read more...Last week, we had put up a perplexed post, wondering out loud as to why some prominent Democratic senators (Charles Schumer, John Kerry, and Claire McCaskill) were calling to block contracts being signed between oil companies and the Iraq government. Narrowly, these deals would help get the faltering country back on its feet economically, both […]
Read more...Alert readers pointed us to new sightings of heightened credit market worries from Barclays via the Telegraph and Bill Fleckenstein via Calculated Risk. What distinguishes them from normal patter about the debt markets is the urgency of their alarms (hat tip Dwight and doc) The irony here is that the Fed, as Tim Duy points […]
Read more...Daniel Dicker, a former oil trader writing at TheStreet.com, contends that there is a way to test the hypothesis that speculation is influencing oil prices (a view that Dicker supports). Exchanges could impost a “liquidiation only” requirement, which was last used to break the Hunt brothers’ attempted corner of the silver market in the early […]
Read more...Some readers have suggested increasing tariffs as a way to reduce our trade deficit and shield US workers from foreign competition. High energy prices may be having the same effect. Increased transportation costs are leading companies to rethink how they source their products and shift to local producers where possible. A Financial Times story discusses […]
Read more...Please have a look at our article, “Barrel Fever: Does Anyone Know How Much Oil There is in the World?” We’ve covered some of the same ground in posts here, but hopefully readers will still enjoy it.
Read more...