Category Archives: Credit markets

Michael Hudson: The Case Against the Credit Ratings Agencies

By Michael Hudson, a research professor of Economics at University of Missouri, Kansas City and a research associate at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College

In today’s looming confrontation the ratings agencies are playing the political role of “enforcer” as the gatekeepers to credit, to put pressure on Iceland, Greece and even the United States to pursue creditor-oriented policies that lead inevitably to financial crises. These crises in turn force debtor governments to sell off their assets under distress conditions. In pursuing this guard-dog service to the world’s bankers, the ratings agencies are escalating a political strategy they have long been refined over a generation in the corrupt arena of local U.S. politics.

Marshall Auerback: Are We Approaching the Endgame for the Euro?

By Marshall Auerback, a hedge fund manager, portfolio strategist, and Roosevelt Institute fellow. A version of this post appeared at New Economic Perspectives.

Forget about the S&P downgrade, which has had ZERO impact on the global equity markets. The downgrade was supposed to mean that it would be more likely that the US government would not be able to pay its debt than previously assumed. IF the markets took this warning seriously, then they would have attached a higher risk premium to US government bonds. Of course, the opposite occurred. US bonds soared in price. In other words, investors, both here and abroad, voted with money as loudly as possible that they view the US government debt as a very safe haven in a time of financial turmoil

So if it wasn’t the S&P downgrade which caused this downward cascade in the global equity markets, then what was it? By far, the most important factor currently driving the market’s bear trends is Europe or, more specifically, the future of the euro and the European Monetary Union. Systemic risk has migrated across the Atlantic to the euro zone.

Mr. Market Had a Really Bad Day

You know things are not normal when a 4%-5% movement in equity markets looks routine.

I’ve been a bit surprised that it has taken investors this long to get the memo that the prospects for the economy (both domestically and internationally) are lousy. The stunning US GDP revisions of last month should have been a wake-up call, but they seemed to be swamped by the deficit ceiling/S&P downgrade theatrics.

MERS Case Filed With Supreme Court

Before readers get worried by virtue of the headline that the Supreme Court will use its magic legal wand to make the dubious MERS mortgage registry system viable, consider the following:

Quelle Surprise! Standard & Poor’s Execs Diddled in Mortgage Bond Ratings (Updated)

Louise Story at the New York Times reports that the SEC is looking into whether it has grounds to file suit against the ratings agency Standard & Poor’s for publishing higher ratings on bonds than the analysts had recommended. The article reports that the agency has found instances where executives overrode analyst judgement to award higher ratings on mortgage bonds that were later downgraded and produced investor losses. The piece indicates that the SEC has found instances of this sort of misconduct; the question seems to be whether it took place often enough to make a case.

From the Obama administration’s standpoint, it must seems rather unfortunate that the SEC has decided to go after S&P just as Matt Taibbi has called attention to the fact that the agency has organized its affairs so as to help it avoid seeing all but the most egregious misconduct. Readers will point out that any case would be politically motivated, but those who live by the sword should be prepared to die by the sword.

Satyajit Das: The Real Debt Crisis is in Europe- Part 2 – “Europe’s Long, Long Goodbye”

By Satyajit Das, the author of Extreme Money: The Masters of the Universe and the Cult of Risk (published in August/ September 2011)

In the Long Term We’re All Dead

The European Union’s attempts to resolve the continent’s sovereign debt problems do not deal with issues of growth, intra-European financial imbalances and competitiveness. The only “initiative” was the vague plan for a massive public investment program, although no details of how it is to be financed were provided.

The call for greater public investment was accompanied by a familiar but contradictory insistence that all Euro-zone states adhere to agreed fiscal targets. Euro-zone countries except Greece, Ireland and Portugal must bring their budget deficit down to less than 3% of GDP by 2013. The need for many European countries to improve public finances is clear. But how greater belt-tightening and austerity would restore growth is not.

Video: The Bankers as the Enemy of Humanity

This video is stunning, in that it is a very articulate and well done rant that will resonate with many readers. The fact that it appeared on Karl Denninger’s site (hat tip reader Scott, Denninger’s been very critical of the TBTF banks) is an indication that the level of frustration with the major banks’ refusal to take responsibility for wrecking the global economy and their efforts to preserve their ability to loot is moving to a new level.

Quelle Surprise! New York Fed Director Shills for Bank of New York, Argues Against Rule of Law

Given the Federal Reserve’s abysmal regulatory record in the runup to the crisis (even the uber bank friendly Office of the Comptroller of the Currency was more aggressive in going after subprime abuses, for instance), it should be no surprise that some of its directors are utterly lacking in propriety and common sense when it comes to defending the rights of banks to profit at the expense of customers and society at large.

The only good news about the latest example is that it was so ineptly done that it appears to be backfiring.

Satyajit Das: The Real Debt Crisis is in Europe – Part 1 – “Solvency But Not In Our Time”

By Satyajit Das, the author of Extreme Money: The Masters of the Universe and the Cult of Risk (published in August/ September 2011)

Despite the media hyperventilation and pundit hyperbole about the downgrade of US’s credit rating, the real issue remains Europe.

There is no imminent danger that the US cannot finance its requirements. The US’s cost of debt will not increase significantly as a result of the marginal downgrade, by one of the three major rating agencies. Despite the shrill rhetoric, the Chinese and other foreign investors will continue to buy US dollars and government bonds to protect their existing

For many European countries, the inability to access markets is a clear and present danger, which threatens financial markets and the global economy.

On the ECB and the sovereign debt crisis

Cross-posted from Credit Writedowns Last month I wrote an article called “The ECB is the difference” which claimed the ECB was the pivotal institution in the European sovereign debt crisis. I presented two options that the European Central Bank had in relieving pressure on European sovereign debt markets. Option A was monetisation i.e. buying up […]

Rob Johnson and Tom Ferguson on the Real Meaning of the S&P Downgrade and the Market Reaction

I feel as if I am too often making excuses for coming across good material on the late side, but between being distracted by the market gyrations of last week and figuring out how to write to Salon readers, I’m even more behind the eight ball than usual. But our initial reader comments confirm our instincts that this material is very relevant.

Readers have responded well in the past to Tom Ferguson’s cut-to-the-chase, curmudgeonly style, but I also wanted to call your attention to Rob Johnson’s observations. Rob, by contrast, is a very measured speaker, so on his scale of discourse, his remarks about Obama are remarkably blunt.

Matt Stoller: S&P – “Our ratings in the mortgage-backed securities area were not venal”

By Matt Stoller, a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute. He is the former Senior Policy Advisor to Rep. Alan Grayson. (on Twitter at @matthewstoller)

So S&P downgrades the US, and Treasuries rally. Then S&P affirms that France is a AAA rating, and the markets freaked out about Eurozone and Eurobank risk. France is “now in the crosshairs”. What should be clear by now is that S&P isn’t doing actual credit analysis. It is being a part of a community of financial oligarchs that for their own reasons want to see various communities and countries threatened with a downgrade.

Indeed, of all the players in the financial crisis, the ratings agencies were the single most embarrassing and obvious points of failure and corruption.

Another Real Estate Time Bomb: Unsellable Vacant Homes?

From a NYC reader via e-mail:

My good friend is a real estate broker in Westchester/Dutchess County. He said he is seeing a real problem growing with title insurance. He said a large number of the REO properties banks try to get him to sell cannot close because of title problems. He’s worried about the growing number of vacant homes which may be impossible to sell.

“August 2011: The euro crisis reaches the core”

Yves here. This article gives one of the best high level summaries of the problems besetting the Eurozone I have seen. I’m not as keen about his remedy, which is not to say that it isn’t clever and wouldn’t in theory work. But from everything I can tell, the ECB is simply not prepared to expand its balance sheet anywhere near as much as would be needed.

By Daniel Gros, Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels. Cross posted from VoxEU

Investors are anticipating the unravelling of the 21 July 2011 “solution” and a breakdown of the interbank-market that would throw the economy into an “immediate recession” like the one experienced after the Lehman bankruptcy. This column argues that this will happen without quick and bold action. The EFSF can’t work as designed but if it were registered as a bank – which would give it access to unlimited ECB re-financing – governments could stop the generalised breakdown of confidence while leaving the management of public debt in the hand of the finance ministers.

Are Rating Agencies Now Trying to Mug Rich Municipalities?

A savvy and cynical reader sent me this story from the Boston Globe yesterday, “Rating agency downbeat on Mass. communities.” We wanted to show readers that we are not merely after Standard & Poor’s but all sorts of rating agency incompetence and socially destructive behavior. Key extracts: