Category Archives: Credit markets

The Fantasy of the Clearing House Magic Bullet

As Gillian Tett points out in the Financial Times today, clearing derivatives centrally has come to be viewed in policy circles as a magical solution. As a result, it has not gotten the scrutiny it deserves. The reason for the enthusiasm is that, in theory, a clearinghouse would make sure all agreements were adequately backstopped, […]

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Guest Post: Was it “Nobody Saw It Coming” or “Everybody Who Saw It Coming Was a Nobody”?

By Richard Alford, a former economist at the New York Fed. Since them, he has worked in the financial industry as a trading floor economist and strategist on both the sell side and the buy side. A number of economists, economic policymakers, regulators, and central bankers have attempted to explain away their failure to both […]

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Roubini Predicts “Mother of All Carry Trade Unwinds”

Nouriel Roubini has officially left the “hedging your bets on the economy” camp. He has declared the markets to be frothy because super low dollar borrowing rates have turned the greenback into the funding currency for the carry trade. Far more important than the peppy rally in the stock market is the resumption of early […]

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“How Goldman secretly bet on the U.S. housing crash” (AIG as Bagholder Watch)

McClatchy, the only major US news organization to question the Iraq war until is was obvious to all that it was a misguided exercise in neocon hubris, has started a series on Goldman’s famed “short subprime” exercise. While the timing and overall outline are not new (as to when and allegedly why the investment bank […]

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Bank-Favoring Censorship by Congress

Harper’s Magazine has written up the lengths to which the authorities will go in censoring views that dissent with what is the unstated official policy: that no demand of the banking industry is too unreasonable not to be catered to. The object lesson is the gutting of the falsely-branded derivatives reform bill. It arrived with […]

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GMAC Joins the Black Hole Club

The numbers aren’t as impressive as AIG’s but the general premise is the same. The automaker’s financial service arm it asking for a third taxpayer-provided cash transfusion. Might help if someone stanched the bleeding first. But no, bleeding is part of the game plan. The reason for more dough to GMAC is so GM and […]

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Fed Authorized 100% Payout by AIG on CDS

Wow, I should not be surprised, but this is a stunner nevertheless. It had generally been assumed that the AIG payouts of 100% on credit swaps (when the insurer was under water and bankrupt companies do not satisfy their obligations in full) was the result of some gap in oversight plus traders at AIG exercising […]

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“Happy Halloween: Pay Curbs are a Trick on the Taxpayer, Not a Treat”

By Marshall Auerback, an investment strategist and analyst who writes for New Deal 2.0. How appropriate that with Halloween just around the corner, the Fed and Treasury have announced a coordinated effort that will put the central bank at the forefront of pay regulation on the zombie firms now kept alive courtesy of US government […]

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Debate on Deficits: A Reply from Rob Parenteau

Rob Parenteau, CFA, sole proprietor of MacroStrategy Edge, editor of the Richebacher Letter, and a research associate with the Levy Economics Institute, responds to DoctoRx’s post, “Debate on Deficits.” DoctoRx raises a wide swath of excellent questions regarding the correct approach to financial crises, the economic contractions they can induce, and the best way forward. […]

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Why is Zero Hedge claiming the Fed is intervening in equities markets?

By Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns I just came across a post on Zero Hedge called “An Overview Of The Fed’s Intervention In Equity Markets Via The Primary Dealer Credit Facility.” Now, that’s a mouthful. As far as I can discern, the post’s purpose is to expose alleged equities market manipulation by the Federal Reserve. […]

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Gillian Tett: “Was October 2008 just a dress rehearsal?”

A lot of investors I know lamented the loss of Gillian Tett. As the Financial Times’ capital markets editor in the runup to the crisis, she had provided very insightful commentary on some of the more arcane goings-on in the financial markets. I’ve had reason to look at her older commentary (circa 2004-2005) and some […]

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The Problem is Not TBTF, but TDTR

Robert Johnson, former chief economist to the Senate Banking Committee, submitted testimony to a House Financial Services Committee hearing on OTC derivatives. His written testimony is to be posted today. While his remarks are worth reading in their entirety, one bit that caught my attention was his discussion of TDTR, or “Too Difficult to Resolve.” […]

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Paul Volcker, Mervyn King, Glass Steagall, and the Real TBTF Problem

Paul Volcker wants to roll the clock back and restore Glass Steagall, the 1933 rule that separated commercial banking from investment banking, but Team Obama is politely ignoring him. Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, is giving a more strident version of the same message, calling on the biggest financial firms to […]

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So Now We Know Why Lehman Went Under

The New York Times published an edited extract from Andrew Ross Sorkin’s Too Big Too Fail (man, that book is so large, they can release a ton in advance and still have a book and a half of reading left over). This section is on some of Dick Fuld’s efforts to save Lehman. The Japanese […]

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