When the Federal Reserve went “all in” as wags liked to put it on December 17, with its declaration that it would use “all available tools” to fight looming deflation. The bond and currency markets both took note, with the dollar falling sharply before rebounding and mortgage interest rates falling (nicely done, to get much […]
Read more...Steve Waldman offers a radical and unconventional cure to our financial mess. Stop lending. Waldman is deadly serious and thinks our attachment to lending is based on dangerously flawed premises: I am glad that the banks, for all the hundreds of billions of dollars we are giving them, are not lending. That is not because […]
Read more...Now we know why John Thain was so eager to sell Merrill. That comment isn’t entirely fair (the deterioration in the securities firm took place in the fourth quarter, while the sale was negotiated in September). But directionally, the former Merrill chief saw the downside risks and did what was best for the firm. The […]
Read more...One of the reasons I am partial to Australians is that they are critical thinkers, not easily cowed by authority or conventional wisdom. In the US, one of the reasons that Fed chair Ben Bernanke is given so much deference (aside from the fact that we treat people in positions of power with kid gloves) […]
Read more...Even though China’s trade surpluses continue at record and near record levels (imports are falling faster than exports), China’s foreign exchange reserves are not even close to keeping pace. Readers may recall that a massive amount of money flowed into China, a good bit of it disguised (FDI was one of the suspect categories) because […]
Read more...The irony is rich, and a bit sad. I had Citi as a client in the 1980s, and served them in a small way in their efforts to make inroads into investment banking. It looked like a quixotic effort with commercial banks seeming likely to remain relegated to the margins: smaller clients, simpler deals. JP […]
Read more...Junk bond yields were recently as high as 20% (they’ve improved a bit recently). Some commentators considered the record spreads to be overdone. I don’t have a point of view as to whether a particular junk bond interest level is cheap or dear, but I have commented from time to time that there was good […]
Read more...The Wall Street Journal tonight says, “Citigroup Takes First Step Toward Breakup.” But what does that mean, exactly? Or had the Journal gone a bit far with the notion that the bank is doing some way, way overdue housecleaning? The eye-popping bit is that the asset dispositions are reportedly at the instigation of the Federal […]
Read more...Economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have been publishing various findings from a large-scale data set they have constructed of past financial crises. They have looked back as far as 800 years, but not surprisingly, most of their output has consisted of analyses of modern crises (you can find some earlier discussions here and here). […]
Read more...Wellie, the incumbents are not yet out of office, yet the Bush Administration blame shifting spin doctoring is already in high gear. Henry Paulson gave an interview to the Financial Times that appears either to have been remarkably brief (even the 10 minute Bloomberg videos typically yield more quotable material) or Paulson has gotten very […]
Read more...A useful piece at the Wall Street Journal discusses the poor prospects for the US banking industry, which will in aggregate post a fourth quarter loss despite heroic interventions by the Fed and Treasury. The article makes much of recent and almost-certain-to-get-worse bank credit losses as the economy continues to deteriorate. Commercial real estate vacancies, […]
Read more...Wolfgang Munchau has a good piece in todays’ Financial Times delineating his economic policy wish list for 2009. It has the merit of being to the point and pragmatic. His preamble contains some some striking tidbits. Munchau considers himself relatively optimistic about US housing, despite anticipating a 40 to 50% peak to trough decline, and […]
Read more...There is a piece I regard as truly odd in the Wall Street Journal tonight. Either much of what I have read about investment bank bankruptcies is wrong, or something peculiar is at what used to be the house of Lehman. A Wall Street Journal article, “Lehman’s Chaotic Bankruptcy Filing Destroyed Billions in Value,” comments […]
Read more...There has been some discussion of the possibility of buyer revulsion eventually reaching the Treasury market as a burgeoning calendar bumps up against demand. But a Financial Times article points out that the issuers most at risk from a big US and advanced economy government bond sales program is emerging economies, with Hungary and Ukraine […]
Read more...In part because the Japanese corporate bond market is no where near as deep and large as its US counterpart, Japanese rating agencies hold far less sway than Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s. Nevertheless, the idea that Japan should write down its vast holdings of Treasuries and support US infrastructure spending (albeit with a few […]
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