The statement of intent by the EU today is progress but far short of a plan. However, measures by major countries are to be announced tomorrow. The statement, that each country will announce measures, may be greeted with disappointment, since there had been some hope that the summit would announce an EU program, as opposed […]
Read more...The Financial Times headline reads “Bad news on Lehman CDS” when by most readers’ standards, the content is almost entirely good news. It elaborates on and generally confirms the report that we posted earlier from the DTCC, that the net exposures on Lehman credit default swaps by major protection writers was in fact minor. However, […]
Read more...Reader Tim sent us a link to a press release from The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation which says that the net payout on Lehman credit default swaps will be comparatively minor, a mere $6 billion, versus the gross exposure, which has been widely reported as in excess of $400 billion. If this proves correct, […]
Read more...Reader Saboor pointed to a BBC report on grim words from IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn about the state of the global financial system; reader Dwight later sent a link to a bit more detailed Reuters report. First from the BBC, “IMF in global ‘meltdown’ warning“: The world financial system is teetering on the “brink of […]
Read more...Britain is moving quickly to use the its new bank rescue facility, which was increased from £59 billion to £75 billion. Note the article suggests that stock market trading may be suspended in connection with the rescues. From the Times Online (hat tip reader Tim): The government will tomorrow launch the biggest rescue of Britain’s […]
Read more...One troubling aspect of the banking crisis was that European banks, like their US peers, are at risk of failure, and some of them are sufficiently large that they are beyond the capacity of any one country to save. While Fortis was bailed out by three countries, ad hoc arrangements are risky. As Keynes said, […]
Read more...We’ve said for some time that European banks are (believe it or not) in even worse shape on average than their US peers, although the public at large is far more aware of the problems here by virtue of our financial system having hit the wall so spectacularly. While US firms waded into risky waters […]
Read more...Equity analyst and market commentator James Bianco of Arbor Research e-maileda a discussion of the breakdown of interbank lending to us along with a few others, His note illustrates a point made by FT Alphaville a couple of weeks ago that we have harped on since, namely, that central banks’ efforts to provide liquidity to […]
Read more...Oh boy, MetLife has just put a huge bull’s eye on itself saying “We cannot afford to be downgraded!” While the role of evil shorts in driving down financial company price is overdone (many firms’ shares should be trading at lousy levels, given the terrible outlook for earnings and dividends), this announcement will lead the […]
Read more...Another sign of market panic: even though Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now officially wards of the state and the Treasury has assured that they will not fall into a negative equity standing, the general credit market stress and flight to quality means that their mortgage backed bonds are trading at elevated spreads. However, […]
Read more...The Dow rallied over 900 points to as high as 283 and is now in positive territory. Reader M passed us this report: A well informed investor I speak to regularly relays that the 3:45 PM speech by Paulson, coming out of the IMF meetings, will include the roll out of a joint clearing mechanism […]
Read more...England, which has been more candid in talking about the financial crisis than other countries (the governor of the Bank of England has said, for instance, that living standards will fall) issued a blunt assessment earlier today. The scary update is that even overnight lending is starting to break down. From the Financial Times: UK […]
Read more...All I can say is “ouch”. The theory is that for every loser there is a winner, but in this market with financial players at risk of failure due to hits to weak equity bases and/or runs, we have a serious asymmetry. A significant loss to an important intermediary, either directly, via CDS payouts, or […]
Read more...Those who wrote $400 billion plus of protection on Lehman’s credit default swaps had been expected to make a substantial payout in the 80% to 85% of face value range, but the preliminary auction showed even worse results. How the SEC and Treasury had so little clue that Lehman was in such bad shape is […]
Read more...Economist Paul De Grauwe, who has been an astute and harsh critic of central bank’s models and priorities, makes a very simple point and draw a conclusion. Banks are not lending to each other out of mistrust. Various measures to increase liquidity and backstop banks have not made them look any more favorably upon their […]
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