Equity analyst and market commentator James Bianco of Arbor Research e-maileda a discussion of the breakdown of interbank lending to us along with a few others, His note illustrates a point made by FT Alphaville a couple of weeks ago that we have harped on since, namely, that central banks’ efforts to provide liquidity to […]
Read more...Oh boy, MetLife has just put a huge bull’s eye on itself saying “We cannot afford to be downgraded!” While the role of evil shorts in driving down financial company price is overdone (many firms’ shares should be trading at lousy levels, given the terrible outlook for earnings and dividends), this announcement will lead the […]
Read more...Another sign of market panic: even though Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now officially wards of the state and the Treasury has assured that they will not fall into a negative equity standing, the general credit market stress and flight to quality means that their mortgage backed bonds are trading at elevated spreads. However, […]
Read more...The Dow rallied over 900 points to as high as 283 and is now in positive territory. Reader M passed us this report: A well informed investor I speak to regularly relays that the 3:45 PM speech by Paulson, coming out of the IMF meetings, will include the roll out of a joint clearing mechanism […]
Read more...England, which has been more candid in talking about the financial crisis than other countries (the governor of the Bank of England has said, for instance, that living standards will fall) issued a blunt assessment earlier today. The scary update is that even overnight lending is starting to break down. From the Financial Times: UK […]
Read more...All I can say is “ouch”. The theory is that for every loser there is a winner, but in this market with financial players at risk of failure due to hits to weak equity bases and/or runs, we have a serious asymmetry. A significant loss to an important intermediary, either directly, via CDS payouts, or […]
Read more...Those who wrote $400 billion plus of protection on Lehman’s credit default swaps had been expected to make a substantial payout in the 80% to 85% of face value range, but the preliminary auction showed even worse results. How the SEC and Treasury had so little clue that Lehman was in such bad shape is […]
Read more...Economist Paul De Grauwe, who has been an astute and harsh critic of central bank’s models and priorities, makes a very simple point and draw a conclusion. Banks are not lending to each other out of mistrust. Various measures to increase liquidity and backstop banks have not made them look any more favorably upon their […]
Read more...Nearly two weeks ago, it was becomimg apparent that central bank liquidity operations were not merely ineffective, but had become counterproductive in getting banks to lend to each other. As FT Althaville noted: Liquidity is being thrown at the system, but it’s just making things worse. By pumping in more money central banks aren’t addressing […]
Read more...The US is considering more drastic measures to shore up the banking system, namely guaranteeing bank debt and removing the ceiling on deposit guarantees. The idea of insuring bank debt may seem odd, given that writers like John Hussman have urged that bank bondholders, who knew the risks of investing and enjoyed the higher yields, […]
Read more...Nouriel Roubini has been almost freakishly accurate in calling the progression of the credit crisis, with his only major failings being predicting its onset on the early side and his fondness for an apocalyptic writing style, which now seems fully justified. Even by the standards of his alarming missives, his latest is truly troubling. Roubini […]
Read more...We were glad to be back again on BloggingHeads this week, this time with Daniel Gross. This one was more oriented toward the a generalist audience than our chat last week with Megan McArdle. Below is a clip: You can find the entire conversation here.
Read more...On the one hand, I was mystified that the stock market was up in the morning session given that the money market seize up was not at all improved and several key measures had worsened overnight. I was wiling to accept the view that we might have an oversold bounce and saw several bloggers indicate […]
Read more...BBC reports that the IMF is reactivating some of the emergency mechanisms used during the 1997 Asian crisis to help support countries suffering from capital flight. The story is a bit thin on particulars; we’ll provide an update should they surface later today. From the BBC (hat tip reader Saboor): The International Monetary Fund (IMF) […]
Read more...Banks stuck with unsold inventory of LBO loans have maintained a fair degree of market discipline, attempting to offload the paper at favorable prices and engaging in financing the sales rather than taking bigger haircuts so as to avoid further writedowns of still-unsold paper. The sale of LBO paper held by Iceland’s failed banks and […]
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