Category Archives: Credit markets

Global Economy at "Point of Maximum Danger"?

As he is often wont to do, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard worries, in dire terms, about the poor prospects for growth and stability, It would be easy to dismiss him as histrionic were it not for the fact that some commentators who have been right so far about the progress of the credit crunch, are also hyperventilating. […]

FOMC Member Gary Stern Calls For Interest Rate Increase

The Bloomberg report on Minneapolis Fed president Gary Stern’s hawkish views noted that he has a more sanguine view of the health of the financial system than other FOMC members do. From Bloomberg: The Federal Reserve shouldn’t wait until financial and housing markets stabilize to raise interest rates, central bank policy maker Gary Stern said. […]

44 Cents on the Dollar for Cheyne SIV Auction

The results of the auction of the Cheyne SIV portfolio do not portend well for other SIV restructurings. From the Financial Times: A benchmark auction of distressed debt assets has given investors a gloomy guide to the prospects of recovering cash from the troubled structured investment vehicles that have been at the heart of the […]

Merrill: US May Face "Financing Crisis"

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard appears to be trying to corner the market in apocalyptic financial news. But his sources aren’t evangelicals, survivalists, or even goldbugs. The experts he cites are with respected financial firms, meaning they don’t sound alarms casually. Even more significant, the terms they are using to describe what might be coming are uncharacteristically dire. […]

On the Ackman GSE Restructuring Plan

The link is here. Main elements: Common and preferred equity wiped out Subordinated debt swapped for equity warrants Current senior unsecured debtholders get per each dollar of face 90 cents face amount of new debt and 10 cents face amount of new equity Equity holders can put common to Feds at face value for first […]

Treasuries Starting to Look Like Senior Debt of GSEs

As we indicated, a deterioration in Treasuries was the likely outcome of affirming the implied Federal backing of Fannie and Freddie debt. And as we said, we might have been able to persuade our friendly creditors, meaning foreign central banks who also own a lot of Treasuries, that they’d likely be no worse off from […]

Vote of No Confidence: Dollar Tanks (And More on Fannie and Freddie)

So much for the notion that the not-quite-a-rescue-plan for Fannie and Freddie would calm troubled markets. Equities gave a raspberry yesterday and overnight, the TED spread widened 11 basis points to 133 basis points (a sign interbank funding trouble may be nigh) and today the currency markets, which initially seemed to take the news in […]

Welcome Willem Buiter and Mohamed El-Erian to the Banana Republic Club!

The time has come to announce the formation of the Banana Republic Club. Membership is open, with the sole requirement being that nominees correctly discern behaviors in advanced economies that resemble those of corrupt developing countries, which for sake of convenience are referred to as banana republics. Members are eligible to receive a Carmen Miranda […]

The Real Test of the Not-Yet-A-Plan Fannie & Freddie Operation

I must admit to being hopelessly naive. The Fed opens its discount window to Freddie and Fannie, which is an admission that there is a problem but not much of a solution, since the GSEs are certain not to use it (accessing the discount window is a kiss of death, seen an admission that a […]

Letter to Freddie Employees: "Treasury Department Reaffirms Support for GSE Model, Mission"

I received an e-mail that contains the text of a letter allegedly sent to Freddie Mac employees this evening (hat tip reader Jeff). On the one hand, I cannot verify its authenticity. On the other hand, it reads like the real deal. Note particularly the claim that the measures proposed by the Treasury are merely […]

Thin Gruel in Paulson Statement re Fannie, Freddie; Fed Opens Discount Window

For those looking for some concrete action (which was what many market participants hoped for), Paulson issued a statement that amounts to hand waving. Full text from Bloomberg: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac play a central role in our housing finance system and must continue to do so in their current form as shareholder-owned companies. […]

Bloomberg: Paulson Seeks Congressional Authority to Bail Out Fannie, Freddie

So much for merely making reassuring noises, as the Wall Street Journal reported an hour or so ago. Unless the authorities can call in favors and get a strong show of buyer interest at the Fannie sale of $3 billion sale of short-term debt tomorrow, it’s hard to imagine the markets will take well to […]

Announcement for Fannie, Freddie in the Works (Updated)

Various sightings of motion, but none yet of resolution on the Freddie and Fannie fronts, although there are now indications that an announcement of some sort will come soon. Note that the updated story from the Wall Street Journal suggest a rescue is not in the offing, merely a willingness to rescue. If the powers […]

"What Would a Fannie/Freddie Conservatorship Look Like?"

If the rumor du jour is correct, and the Treasury is going to announce plans to inject $15 billion into Fannie and Freddie before trading starts on Monday, the idea of a conservatorship for the GSEs may be off the table. Nevertheless. Adam Levitin of Credit Slips discusses the legal aspects, and this knowledge is […]