Some readers may think I am unduly fond of negative forecasts to be featuring the views of a mere PR maven, one Gershon Kekst, along with those of famous investors like Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, and George Soros. Ah, but there is a reason Kekst’s views are significant. Very few advisors, be they top lawyers […]
Read more...Paul Kedrosky posted on a report published in a Swiss paper (he courteously provided the English translation) of the results of a study prepared for hedge fund Bridgewater Associates that projects that total losses to the financial system from the credit crisis will reach $1.6 trillion. Note that losses taken to date are only $400 […]
Read more...Gretchen Morgenson of the New York Times has a story on proposed new reporting rules for credit default swaps that in passing raises the question that if implemented on the envisioned schedule (becomes effective in fiscal year financial statements after November 15, 2008, so the impact could be soon in coming), it may lead banks […]
Read more...Readers no doubt recall that the Federal Reserve loaned $30 billion to JP Morgan against certain Bear Stearns assets to, ahem, induce the bank to go forward with the deal. The arrangement got reworked on the fly, and in the end, the Fed loan was reduced to roughly $29 billion as JP Morgan agreed to […]
Read more...Readers have taken to throwing brickbats when I post material that suggests that raising interest rates (at least in advanced economies) might not be a good move right now. We’ve said before that the reason the Fed kept rates too low too long was it looked at inflation as strictly a domestic phenomenon and ignored […]
Read more...When the question of guaranteed investment contracts and their implications for monolines first came up on this blog, a reader jumped all over us when we ventured that the fallout from GICs might affect claims paying ability. We were told that making a fuss over GICs was tantamount to focusing on a withdrawal by a […]
Read more...Yet more signs of consumer stress. From Bloomberg: Consumers fell behind on loans secured by their homes at the fastest pace in two decades in the first quarter, signaling deeper distress in the U.S. economy, the American Bankers Association reported. Home-equity lines of credit at least 30 days past due rose 14 basis points to […]
Read more...Why is it that in finance, nothing succeeds like failure? Witness LTCM’s John Meriwether’s ability to raise a new hedge fund after the biggest financial blow-up in history, or Geoff Boisi and Vikram Pandit’s ability to sell not-hugely-successful funds to banks, then perform unspectacularly in management roles (although in fairness, Boisi had been a leader […]
Read more...Moody’s is dismissing its structured finance chief, Noel Kirnon, for lapses in ratings of constant proportional debt obligations. Bloomberg notes that $4 billion of these instruments were rates AAA, and some fell in value by as much as 90%. This move nevertheless seems odd. True, this was a very large value destroying event in percentage […]
Read more...A workmanlike piece in the Financial Times, “A re-emerging market?” by Gillian Tett, Aline Van Duyn and Paul Davies gives a cautiously optimistic outlook for the revival of the securitization market. However, it’s a bit disappointing that the article skips over a couple of key elements. The first is that the explosive growth of securitization […]
Read more...Larry Summer’s latest comment at the Financial Times, “What we can do in this dangerous moment.” is troubling both for its analysis of our economic mess and its remedies. Start with his first paragraph: It is quite possible that we are now at the most dangerous moment since the American financial crisis began last August. […]
Read more...A story in the UK’s Times give a recap of the gloomy forecasts for the US and world economy, including a particularly cheery prediction by a SocGen strategies that foresees that the Dow will drop to 4500 and the S&P 500 to 500. Not included in this forecast is a grim warning from Barclays and […]
Read more...Tom Lindmark sent me a link to a post on his blog, a write-up of the main things he learned at the IMN Distressed Real Estate Conference in Las Vegas. Remember, this event is for those in the industry who LIKE messy, ugly situations. But it gives the impression that the industry is close to […]
Read more...Perhaps it’s merely the result of drafting in a bit more haste than usual, but the latest offering by Nouriel Roubini, “The delusional complacency that the “worst is behind us” is rapidly melting away…and the risk of another run against systemically important broker dealers,” is unusually heated in tone, to the point where it distracts […]
Read more...Alert readers pointed us to new sightings of heightened credit market worries from Barclays via the Telegraph and Bill Fleckenstein via Calculated Risk. What distinguishes them from normal patter about the debt markets is the urgency of their alarms (hat tip Dwight and doc) The irony here is that the Fed, as Tim Duy points […]
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