We and other cynics were very skeptical of the pre-G20 announcement by China that it was moving to a more market-oriented currency regime at some unspecified point in the future (particularly since China had said pretty much the same thing in 2005, and actually had committed to some baby steps then). Now that it is […]
Read more...We’ve warned for some time that the eurozone’s sure-to-fail muddle-through approach to its structural challenges was rattling investor confidence. Worse, its insistence on wearing an austerity hairshirt was not only committing Europe to deflation, but had high odds of sucking the global economy down along with it. Given how fragile the recovery is in advanced […]
Read more...By Rob Parenteau, CFA, sole proprietor of MacroStrategy Edge, editor of The Richebacher Letter, and a research associate of The Levy Economics Institute Richard Alford has correctly identified the need to address global imbalances – rather than simply slouch our way back to some milder version of status quo before the pre- Lehman meltdown arrangement, […]
Read more...We noted a bit more than a week ago that we expect the European banks stress tests to backfire. The US version was a successful con game because the officialdom provided adequate disclosure about the process and stayed firmly on message, the banks were allowed to “manufacture” as analyst Meredith Whitney put it, impressive earnings, […]
Read more...The first section of this post is by Warren Mosler, the President of Valance Co. who writes for New Deal 2.0 Deficit doves are doing more harm than the hawks — here’s what they need to know. The deficit hawks are prevailing. The economy remains an economic and social disaster. Medicare has already been cut […]
Read more...George Magnus, senior economic advisor at UBS, provided a reading of the Chinese central bank’s announcement on its currency policy over the past weekend. He sees it as political, “symbolic rather than substantive.” He also contends that China needs to make significant policy changes. From the Financial Times: It would be churlish not to acknowledge […]
Read more...By Richard Alford, a former economist at the New York Fed. Since then, he has worked in the financial industry as a trading floor economist and strategist on both the sell side and the buy side. Calls for global rebalancing are back in vogue, while the debate about the appropriate stance of domestic policy heats […]
Read more...The Chinese central bank made a vague announcement about its currency policy on its website today, which the officialdom, on cue, treated as a major move (to wit: “China vows increased currency flexibility” at the Financial Times, “Chinese say they intend to free up their currency,” Washington Post).) As we describe below, this “announcement” is […]
Read more...This post appeared as an op-ed in Mint, India’s second largest business newspaper. The financial market upheaval that started in May is a stark reminder that the conditions that produced the global financial crisis of 2007-08 have not been resolved. The sucking sound of deflation emanating from Europe and the creaking of bank balance sheets […]
Read more...Tonight brings an odd pairing: Lord Skidelksy, the highly respected biographer of Keynes, and Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, who is generally of the Austrian persuasion, both continuing, as each has, to object to the extreme measures in the process of being implemented in the eurozone. Now before you say that they are both Brits, and therefore suspect […]
Read more...I’ve been quite mystified at all of this “double dip” recession talk, even though I suppose it beats the “V shaped recovery” talk. Both presuppose that we had a recovery underway, the real sort, not the type that is mainly the artifact of inventory restocking, halting and sometimes covert stimulus, (like hiring unprecedented numbers of […]
Read more...Before European readers get upset about the discussion of continued concerns about the eurozone, some of its eager defenders appear to subscribe to an extreme form of indeterminacy. If you recall the famed Schrodinger’s cat, the indeterminacy of the position of an electron is made (somewhat) more comprehensible by a thought experiment in which a […]
Read more...By Satyajit Das, a risk consultant and author of Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives – Revised Edition (2010, FT-Prentice Hall). It Always Ends in the Same Way … No one, including the IMF, seriously believes that the austerity program announced by Greece will work. Argentina had debt […]
Read more...China posted a 48.5% increase in exports in May over its level the prior year, which led to much consternation and chest thumping in DC. Recall that Treasury Secretary Geithner was under considerable pressure from Congress to certify China a currency manipulator on April 15 (one of two semi-annual opportunities). China posted a rather surprising […]
Read more...By Satyajit Das, a risk consultant and author of Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives – Revised Edition (2010, FT-Prentice Hall). A year of wishful thinking … The period from March 2009 was the year of wishful thinking. Central banks cut interest rates and governments opened their cheque […]
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